I wrote a review of Minnesota's offseason for vikesgeek.com, so I thought I would post it here too.

Minnesota had one big problem in 2004; defense. Footballoutsiders.com ranked the pass defense 29th overall and the run defense 32nd overall, however, Minnesota made some big changes to improve this sorry defense.

Coaching: The biggest improvement might be on the sidelines, with the hiring of new defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell. Cottrell was the defensive coordinator for the Jets during the last 6 seasons, but he didn't exactly coordinate a world beating defense in 2002 (according to footballoutsiders.com they were 27th overall), or in 2003 (30th overall), or in 2004 (19th overall). Cottrell might not seem like an obvious improvement based on his track record with the Jets, but as Tice pointed out to his team last season, there are a lot of high draft choices underperforming on defense. A change in defensive philosophy is essential for improvement in 2005.

Defensive Line: An obvious improvement was the signing of Pat Williams. Minnesota probably paid too much for a nose tackle on the wrong side of 30, but Williams was in the middle of a Buffalo run defense that was fantastic in 2004 (2nd overall according to footballoutsiders.com). Chris Hovan seemed to disappoint everyone in Minnesota, he will try to salvage his career in Tampa Bay in 2005, and signing Williams is a major improvement over Hovan. I don't understand why Minnesota drafted Erasmus James. I watched almost every Wisconsin game in 2004. Sometime James was awesome and carried Wisconsin, such as he did against Michigan State and at Purdue. But James missed all of 2003 with an injury and after he got hurt in the 2004 game at Purdue, he wasn't the same player for the rest of the season. The biggest problem with James is that Minnesota already has a nearly identical player in Lance Johnstone. James shouldn't replace Johnstone or Kenechi Udeze on passing downs, however, James does add depth and could push Udeze and might be an eventual replacement for Johnstone. A defensive line with this much talent, including the best defensive lineman in the NFL, Kevin Williams, should be improved in 2005.

Linebackers: This group had to disappoint everyone in Minnesota in 2004. E.J. Henderson put up some solid numbers, but Chris Claiborne was a non-factor for most of 2004 and Minnesota had to be disappointed in the progress of Dontarrious Thomas. The Packers were very high on Thomas, but Minnesota's coaches appeared to lose faith in Thomas and I don't remember Thomas being a factor in any of the games against the Packers. Minnesota added Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris into the mix, but I don't like either of those moves. Cowart will likely push Henderson outside, but Henderson hasn't proven to be very good in pass coverage, although this could improve the run defense. Harris is the other outside linebacker, but he isn't very good in coverage either. Harris is especially a concern; he is a talented player who took a step back in 2004 due in part to injuries, but he also contributed to an awful Oakland defense. Cowart was once a Pro Bowl linebacker, but he hasn't been the same since tearing his achilles tendon a couple of seasons ago, and he will probably never get his speed back. A big reason Cottrell's Jets defense took a big step forward in 2004 was the addition of fantastic rookie linebacker Jonathan Vilma, but Minnesota doesn't have anyone on its roster that has ever played as well as Vilma did in 2004. This unit will disappoint again for Minnesota in 2005.

Secondary: I will continue to verbally kick Packers GM Ted Thompson at every opportunity for letting FS Darren Sharper leave the Packers. He is a big play maker and if anyone available this offseason will have an impact ala New England's safety Rodney Harrison, it is Sharper. In 2004, Sharper had his lowest interception total (4) since 1999, but he played some of the season hurt and he returned two of those interceptions for touchdowns. Plus, if your worst interception total in five seasons is four, then you are doing something right. He played a step slower last season, but he blamed it on former Packer defensive coordinator Bob Slovik's request for him to bulk up last offseason so he could play closer to the line of scrimmage. Still, he is a great signing for Minnesota. Fred Smoot wasn't as good of a signing, but he is a quality starter and it will make a big difference to move Brian Williams to 3rd cornerback and remove all memory of Terrance Shaw from the roster. There are some areas of concern with the cornerbacks; both Antoine Winfield and Smoot are smaller cornerbacks, and neither player has produced a lot of pass defenses or interceptions in their careers. However, when considering the disaster Minnesota's starting cornerbacks had been before Antoine Winfield and Smoot were signed over the last two offseasons, this is a big improvement for Minnesota. One last thing, Minnesota also drafted Dustin Fox from Ohio State, who played cornerback in college and probably would have been more highly regarded if the 2005 draft hadn't been so deep with good cornerbacks. It wouldn't be surprising to see Fox play a role later in 2005.

Offense: How does Minnesota replace Randy Moss? I've taken comfort in the fact that no matter how much Minnesota improves their defense, their offense took a hit by the loss of Randy Moss. Maybe. If you look at footballoutsiders.com, you'll see that over the past few seasons, Moss doesn't rate as the highest receiver each season. Actually, Nate Burleson had a higher rank than Moss in 2004. But Moss always scores a lot of touchdowns, and that is never easy to replace. For comparison, Brett Favre always ranks low with footballoutsiders.com, but Favre always is among the leaders in touchdown passes. For all of Favre's faults, he consistently finds the end zone each season, which is a rare talent that can't be underappreciated. The same things can be said about Moss. Even with all the injuries in 2004, he still caught 13 touchdown passes, and his loss can't be underappreciated, despite all the other baggage he brings to a team. Can Troy Williamson replace Randy Moss? I pulled up the DPAR from footballoutsiders.com on the last three players to be the second wide receiver drafted; Roy Williams 4.5 (-3.3), Andre Johnson 18.4 (0.2), and Ashley Lelie 25.4 (8.2). The numbers in paranthesis is their team's DVOA for 2004. Williams caught 8 touchdowns, Johnson caught 6, and Lelie caught 7. None of these players played as well as Moss, especially if you are comparing by touchdown receptions, but all three played on inferior overall offenses than Minnesota. If Williamson can be compared a year or three from now to those three receivers in Minnesota's top offense, then he will be a good one, but not quite an equal replacement for Moss. Maybe Moss won't be missed at all if the reason Moss was so good was because Daunte Culpepper is the best quarterback in the NFL (sorry Peyton). It will be interesting to see if the offense doesn't miss a beat without Moss in 2005.

Special Teams: Wasn't anyone in Minnesota concerned last season that the special teams was awful in 2004? Footballoutsiders.com ranked it 28th last season. Special teams can be a fluke from one season to the next, but this unit has been awful for years, and 2004's 28th place finish was actually the highest team finish since they finished 25th in 2001. Morten Anderson was let go to collect social security, but in his wake remain Aaron Elling and Jose "Fed Ex" Cortez. Former Packer Travis Dorsch is hanging around too, but it would be a shock if Dorsch becomes their kicker. Former Viking Doug Brien is sending his resume around the NFL, just in case Minnesota wants their former goat to return to Minnesota. Darren Bennett will continue punting in 2005, but he looked awful in 2004 when he played against the Packers. Minnesota didn't need to draft Mike Nugent to improve this unit, but doing nothing to improve it should disappoint many fans come the regular season. How do these moves compare against the rest of the NFC North? I think no team improved as much this offseason as Minnesota. The Packers had serious cap problems and had to let three starters leave; Sharper, Mike Wahle, and Marco Rivera. The Packers would have probably preferred keeping all three players. The Packers are replacing those three starters with a collection of players; Matt O'Dwyer and Adrian Klemm on offense, and Earl Little and Arturo Freeman at safety, who are all playing for the veteran's minimum salary, except Klemm who was paid $1.5 million. It would be a surprise if O'Dwyer, Klemm, Little and Freeman outplay Sharper, Wahle and Rivera in 2005. The Packers added little in the draft that will help in 2005. Aaron Rodgers will probably take over in 2006 and defensive back Nick Collins should take at least a season to adjust after playing small college ball, however, wide receiver Terrence Murphy looks impressive and could help very soon. I don't understand what Jerry Angelo and Matt Millen are doing in Chicago and Detroit, respectively. Chicago drafted another running back while barely improving an awful offensive line by spending big bucks on average tackle Fred Miller, who was cut by Tennessee this offseason. Then they added a rookie quarterback, Kyle Orton, to add to their collection of unproven young quarterbacks, while not helping the defense at all. Detroit drafted another wide receiver, but are still stuck playing Joey Harrington at quarterback/piano, or maybe Jeff Garcia, while failing to address holes at right tackle or safety. The NFC North should remain a battle between Minnesota and Green Bay in 2005, while Chicago and Detroit still try to figure it all out.

There is a lot of Packers news out post-draft, but the most interesting news I've read is how defensive coordinator Jim Bates plays his safeties. Most teams play with a strong safety, who is ready to drop back in coverage but is very likely to cheat up closer to the line of scrimmage on possible running plays for added run support, while a free safety plays deeper and is primarily responsible for pass coverage. Jsonline.com reported, however, that Bates plays his safeties the same, and that each safety may move up or drop back depending on the offensive formation and motion. Recently signed safeties Earl Little and Arturo Freeman are probably the two starting safeties, but neither seemed a typical strong safety because both have played primarily at free safety, and 2nd round pick Nick Collins also appeared to be a more likely free safety. Returning starting safety Mark Logan played strong safety in 2004, but he is a former cornerback, and was miscast in 2004 as a strong safety. But in Bates system, both safeties play essentially the same role, and should have similar skill sets. It had appeared that the Packers had possibly mismanaged the roster for lack of a strong safety, but the goal from the beginning was to not have a traditional strong safety at all.

It was reported as big news surrounded that QB Brett Favre missed mini-camp, but it was way over reported; Favre rarely played any snaps, or was recovering from some the previous season's injuries in the last few mini-camps anyway. Making it official gave Favre more time with his family and the coaches more chances to kick the tires on QB Aaron Rodgers. Sounds like a good idea.

What is going on with RB Ahman Green? Arrest for domestic violence and then a divorce filed the next day? Wow. Good luck Ahman, hopefully you can work through this difficult time in your life, and we will see you at training camp.

Of all the holdouts in the NFL right now, WR Javon Walker might be the most vocal. Jsonline.com reported that Walker was doing a tour of talk radio studios to voice his case. This didn't work out well with former CB Mike McKenzie last season, but hopefully this goes better. The Packers would have to bust their salary cap to pay Walker a new contract at his current value. Someone better tell Walker to stop worring about his contract because of what TE Bubba Franks is going through this offseason. According to footballoutsiders.com, Franks was the 10th best tight end in the NFL in 2004, up from his anemic 25th place in 2003. Did Franks really improve in 2004? Not really. His TD receptions jumped from 4 to 7, but he really wasn't anymore involved in the offense. Teams are probably taking a pass on offering Franks a contract because his stats are inflated by playing with Favre, who has always done a great job of helping ordinary tight ends boost their stats and play in the Pro Bowl. On the other hand, Walker was ranked as the 8th best wide receiver by footballoutsiders.com in 2004, a much tougher positional competition, and he is a young superstar receiver. If the Packers let Walker play out his contract, then placed the transition free agency tag on him, Walker would be given a giant contract offer by another team the next day. You can't compare yourself to Franks; there is no comparison.

I was down on the Packers selection of CB Mike Hawkins from Oklahoma in the 5th round, because Oklahoma's secondary wasn't very good in 2004, at least compared to the rest of Oklahoma's team, but Hawkins didn't actually play for Oklahoma in 2004. He used to attend Oklahoma, but left the team for a reason unknown to me, and has spent the last two seasons in the Arena league, according to jsonline.com, which further reported that Packers coaches are very impressed with Hawkins in mini-camp. Hawkins is only 21, so this was the first year he was eligible for the draft; read about RB Maurice Clarett if anyone is confused why Hawkins had to wait. Hawkins might be a case of the Packers doing some outstanding scouting, however, the Packers snagged CB Jason Horton out of Canada in 2004, raved about his play in training camp, and he look overmatched whenever the rare opportunity presented itself that he got into a game. So maybe there is no reason to get excited about Hawkins either.

It was a hell of a draft for the Packers. It was widely reported that Ted Thompson was
hired to replace Mike Sherman as General Manager, but based on the results from the 2005
NFL draft, it appears that Thompson was never hired, and indeed Sherman still runs the
Packers' draft. Here is the official Mike Sherman Draft Checklist: draft an obscure DB
with your second pick that no one has ever heard of? Check. (2005 DB Nick Collins; 2004
CB Joey Thomas); draft a WR from Texas A&M? Check. (2005 WR Terrence Murphy; 2002 WR Robert Ferguson); draft a player in the 1st round that no one projected that you would
draft? Check. (2005 QB Aaron Rodgers; 2004 CB Ahmad Carroll; 2003 LB Nick Barnett; 2002 WR Javon Walker).

After years of speculation about the Packers drafting the QB of the future, the Packers finally pulled the trigger and drafted a first round QB with Rodgers. Rodgers is exactly the player the Packers should be drafting in the late first round; a projected top 5 pick who fell to #24. Why Rodgers fell to #24 is a very good question. Rodgers's arm strength was questioned, but just two weeks before the draft, it would have surprised no one if Rodgers was the first overall pick. Rodgers lack of arm strength should have been widely known before then. He wasn't a clear top 5 talent in a draft that was not top heavy and his signing bonus demands probably scared off Miami and Tampa Bay, plus it didn't hurt Miami and Tampa Bay that elite running backs were available at their picks either. There is no explaination why Arizona shouldn't have considered him at pick #8. Rodgers completed a high percentage of his passes in college, at just over 63% for his career, which translates to success in the NFL, he will have no pressure to start in his rookie season, and will play in a small media city, all of which should make his transition to
the NFL a lot easier than #1 pick QB Alex Smith. Unfortunately the last time the Packers drafted a QB in the first round, they drafted California QB Rich Campbell in 1981. If you have blocked out the horrid Rich Campbell era with his absolutely dead-no arm strength-arm, then your life is fuller. There is a lot to like about Rodgers long term, but it does nothing to help Favre get one more Super Bowl chance in his career. In some ways, Favre brought this on himself by getting closer to retiring this offseason then ever before in his career and giving the Packers a reason to draft a QB. On the other hand, the Packers most glaring needs in the draft were a top safety and top linebacker, neither of which was available at pick #24, and arguably not available at any spot in the draft. This was the best pick for the Packers.

Who is DB Nick Collins from Bethune-Cookman? Even Chris Berman seemed uncertain when Collins's name was called. Collins is big (for a DB) and fast, which seems ideal in a free safety. Although the Packers could have probably traded down and drafted Collins later. One of the few sites I saw that projected Collins, i-aa.org, projected the small school Collins in the 5th round, but in another article (I can't remember the site) reported that Collins's expected to be drafted in the 2nd round, so maybe he knew something most observers didn't. Jsonline.com reported some talk that Collins will start in the very near future, but that seems highly unlikely. Thomas was drafted from small Montana State in 2004, and he didn't seem ready to play even a part-time role until late in 2004. The pick reminds me a lot of the man Collins intends to replace, FS Darren Sharper, who was a 2nd round pick and converted from CB to FS. It took Sharper a couple of seasons to figure it all out. It should take Collins a similar length of time too. The 2nd round selection used on Collins came from New Orleans from the CB Mike McKenzie trade, so in a way, Collins is replacing both Sharper and McKenzie. That is a lot to ask for a rookie from a I-AA school who might be starting during Favre's last season.

It might seem like WR Terrence Murphy was a luxury 2nd round pick when the Packers had so many needs on defense, but he wasn't. 2005.otcdraft.com ranked as one of the top 35 players and a second round selection. Murphy is one of Texas A&M's all time great WR and might have been a 1st round selection in another season that wasn't so deep with talented wide receivers. The reason the Packers badly needed Murphy was because they have no depth at wide receiver. WR Javon Walker was one of the top 5 WR in the NFL last season, WR Donald Driver was one of the top 5 number 2 WRs in the NFL, and WR Antonio Chatman turned himself into a competant number 3 or 4 WR. WR Robert Ferguson has the talent but hasn't put it all together, and by this point he might never do it. Behind them was nothing but practice squad talent like WR Kelvin Kight. The lack of depth was at its worst during the playoff loss, when Ferguson was out, Walker got hurt during the game, and Favre had to teach his new 3rd WR (I can't even remember his name) how to run routes during the playoff game. In the receivers defense, he had only been with the Packers about 10 days by that time, but the depth was a big problem. Hopefully the problem is solved with Murphy.

2nd day picks. Who knows about these guys? Ted Thompson channelled a bit of Bill Walsh and Ron Wolf to trade down, grab some more late round picks, and maybe catch some magic. Looking over the drafts Seattle had from 2000-2004, the only name that caught my eye was starting LB Isaiah Kacyvenski, but it is arguably whether he should start at all in Seattle. Plus, it is really hard to draft on day 2. Bill Belichick will always be highly regarding for drafting QB Tom Brady on the 2nd day of the draft, but New England hasn't exactly lit it up on day 2 over the last couple of seasons since then, although CB Asante Samuel and C Dan Koppen have turned out as excellent picks from 2003. After all the problems the Packers had early in 2004 at nose tackle, it wouldn't have hurt if the Packers had drafted a big defensive lineman in the late rounds. Wisconsin's DT Anttaj Hawthorne was a 2nd round talent who slid to the 6th round because he got caught smoking marijuana, but the Packers passed on Hawthorne in the 5th round to select Oklahoma CB Michael Hawkins, a longshot to make it on a team with so many young and raw cornerbacks like the Packers have on the roster, and a questionable selection considering Oklahoma's secondary was scorched during the latter part of their 2004 season. In some ways it was very appropriate that Hawthorne was busted for pot and ended up in Oakland, playing alongside DT Warren Sapp, who famously slid down to #12 overall after he was caught smoking pot before the draft.

Would it have killed the Packers to draft a linebacker either? This wasn't the draft for linebackers, but even linebacker starved New England managed to find someone they liked in 5th round. It forced the Packers to resign 2004 starter LB Hannibal Navies, who should not be starting in 2005 either, to provide some depth.

It was a draft that should have excited no one; although drafting a quarterback is always exciting, announcing the end of the Brett Favre era should not excite anyone. It isn't a draft that will help much in 2005, which isn't exciting either. Although Chicago and Detroit had questionable drafts; selecting quality players at positions where they already had quality players, instead of looking at what they need, Minnesota seemed to do very well, and maybe pulled away from the Packers in 2005. Minnesota has a great team on paper, but Mike Tice was frustrated last season that such a good defense, on paper, played so poorly. They still have to put it all together too.

The Packers made a couple more bargain signings to fill in the gaps. Before it was OG Adrian Klemm and OG Matt O'Dwyer to replace departed OG Marco Rivera and OG Mike Wahle. Now its S Earl Little and S Arturo Freeman. Both Little and Freeman were signed for the veterans minimum. Freeman had not been much of a playmaker in his career but he had 4 interceptions last season. Little had a forgetable 2004 season, but played well between 2001 and 2003. Both are free safeties and fill the void left by FS Darren Sharper's release, but neither is likely to challenge SS Mark Roman.

The Packers missed out on LB Monty Beisel in free agency, and Beisel instead signed with New England. Although it might not be such a miss. Aaron Schatz wrote about Beisel at footballoutsiders.com and he had no kind words for Beisel's run defense. When an opposing running back got past the line of scrimmage in Kansas City, Beisel's previous employer, last season, Schatz described it as "party time" for the running back. Beisel is probably better in coverage, but New England has zero depth at linebacker right now, so Beisel was needed. Its telling that in this weak free agent market for linebackers, former Packer LB Hannibal Navies is receiving no interest.

DE Aaron Kampman signed an offer sheet with Minnesota. The Packers could still match the one year offer Kampman received. Jsonline.com speculated that Minnesota was just trying to force the Packers to pay more for Kampman than they wanted, otherwise Minnesota would have offered Kampman more than one year because Kampman's signing would cost a 5th round selection. Kampman played great in some games last season but I suggested last week that the Packers improve that defensive end position by drafting Georgia DE Kevin Pollack. The Packers are better, Minnesota is better too, with Kampman starting at defensive end compared to both teams current in house solutions. It depends on what the Packers want to do with their remaining cap space. If there is no free agents remaining that the Packers want to use their cap space on, then they should resign Kampman. If there are some other players they are targeting, specifically at linebacker, then DE Corey Williams or DE Kenny Peterson might do just as well in 2005 as Kampman. Maybe the Packers could draft a useful defensive end with the 5th round selection they would receive for losing Kampman. At this point, I would lean towards letting Kampman sign with Minnesota.

So who are the Packers going to draft? Reading nfl.com's Pat Kirwan over the last couple of weeks, there doesn't appear to be a safety or linebacker worth drafting at the end of the first round. Kirwan does say this is a strong draft for cornerbacks. Its not the same need, but that would be an option. I'd mention names, but I've never heard of many of these players anyway. Better to read Mel Kiper at espn.com or someone else. None of the Packers current cornerbacks are well suited to switch to the needed strong safety and probably none of the top cornerback prospects are suited to it either. The top safety prospect remains Georgia S Thomas Davis, a former linebacker turned safety. Converting from linebacker to safety worked well last season in Seattle, where S Michael Boulware had a great rookie season, so maybe Davis should be the Packers first round selection. It will be interesting to see how this all unfolds next weekend.

Looking around cbssportsline.com's mock draft, two writers picked Florida LB Channing Crowder as the pick for the Packers in the first round this month. Cbssportsline.com has a lot of information on Crowder and other potential 1st round picks. At 6'2" 236 lbs. Crowder is similar in size to LB Nick Barnett. Crowder made a lot of tackles/game and made an attention grabbing 13.5 tackles for losses in 20 games played at Florida. Unfortunately Crowder had multiple knee surgeries already in his brief career and a few off field incidents. Mock drafts can be very accurate with the first five or ten picks, but are often wrong as you move further away from the top pick. Crowder fills an apparent need, but all his knee injuries don't make him sound like a good pick.

The player that has my attention at the moment is Georgia DE David Pollack. Pollack fills no apparent need, unless you consider that a great pass rush makes a poor pass defense look much better. Name the award for a defensive lineman (Ted Hendricks, Lombardi, SEC defensive player of the year) and Pollack has won it. He played weak side defensive end at Georgia, but at 278 lbs. he is bigger than either DE Jason Taylor or DE Adewale Ogunleye when they both started together during the 2003 season in Miami under defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Miami had the number 3 run defense according to footballoutsiders.com in 2003, so Bates doesn't need a bigger elephant-type defensive end opposite DE KGB to make his run defense work. There is also a comfort level for me with Pollack; I've seen him play and have never heard of Crowder or LB Barrett Rudd or LB Daryl Blackstock or most of the other players mentioned at the end of the first round. Obviously GM Ted Thompson will research and find a comfort level with many more players than I will before the draft.

Does anybody know who the Packers might want to draft this April with their first pick? I'm terrible at guessing who the Packers draft in the first round and this April is wide open for speculation. In the past few seasons, most offseason guessing had centered around a young QB to groom as QB Brett Favre's replacement. But this offseason has the Packers trying to rebuild a broken defense and has seen their offensive line lose both starting guards to free agency. There isn't a single position that couldn't use more depth. Tight end to replace still unsigned TE Bubba Franks? More depth behind the top 3 wide receivers? More depth on offensive line? Defensive line? Linebacker? Secondary? All of these positions could use more depth. The most obvious two positions are linebacker and safety, however, linebackers and safeties are two of the most ignored positions in the first round. Pat Kirwan at nfl.com reviewed the top 32 players and said "there seems to be more of a blur when you consider how close the talent pool is this season." GM Ted Thompson might seemingly reach for a player, but that player might be better than the players he supposedly reached over. Kirwan listed Georgia S Thomas Davis as the 24th best player in the draft so maybe the Packers will draft Davis, especially since the Packers have no players currently on the roster worthy of starting at safety. The Packers could have no trouble finding a potential starting safety or linebacker in the second round at pick #51 either. If the talent level is as much of a blur as Kirwan suggests, then the Packers probably have no shot trading down because teams won't feel the need to move up to spot #24 to draft the player they have to draft. Maybe Thompson would trade up into the top 10 to draft someone like Texas LB Derrick Johnson, but with so much depth needed on the roster, it would be hard to surrender the second round pick at #51 or even worse a future number 1 pick to move up that far. Although Thompson had been credited for deciding Seattle's drafts in recent seasons, Thompson was only part of the front office. Now he is the front office. Maybe he really likes to wheel-and-deal on draft day. Maybe he likes to stand pat and let quality players fall to his selection. We won't know until after he establishes a pattern after a few drafts. Anything is possible with the draft this April.

Tom Silverstein wrote a great article on new defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Just go read it. http://www.jsonline.com/packer/news/apr05/315028.asp. It is going to be a pleasure to watch the defense improve next season under Bates. Bates could have remained in Miami and worked under new head coach Nick Saban, but instead he picked the opportunity to rebuild the shattered Packer defense. I still don't know why Bates made this decision; does he have something to prove or did he see something in the Packers defense that made him want to coach them?

By the way, the Packers still have no safeties on the roster. S Mark Roman is still around but he has a lot to prove. S Todd Franz was signed and he had spent some time on the Packers roster in the past, but he is unlikely to start or even make the roster. S Arturo Freeman is coming to town for a visit, according to jsonline.com, however if Freeman couldn't beat out former Packer S Antuan Edwards last season in Miami until Edwards was released mid-season, then Freeman isn't a full-time starter candidate either.

RB Najah Davenport resigned a small deal with the Packers for next season. It is not surprising that Davenport couldn't find a team that wanted to start him next season. 2004 was basically a lost season for Davenport with various injuries. He gets a mulligan with the Packers; forget 2004 ever happened, come back in 2005 healthy and without any serious competition as the backup tailback, have a big 2005 season, and sign for big money with another team for 2006. He would probably sign with the Packers if he could start, but it seems unlikely the Packers would part with RB Ahman Green, so it will probably have to be elsewhere in 2006. However, if Davenport doesn't look good in 2005, he has probably lost any chance of ever being a starting tailback in the NFL.

Jsonline.com reported that former Kansas City LB Monty Beisel will visit the Packers. Although former starter LB Hannibal Navies was a bigger linebacker and LB Na'il Diggs was a good LB in pass coverage before 2004, the Packers would be better off with a LB who is good in coverage. Beisel is a former defensive end, so he probably isn't the fastest LB in the NFL, but DC Jim Bates seems to like Beisel's speed according to jsonline.com. Of the linebackers still available in free agency, former St. Louis LB Tommy Polley had 4.5 tackles for loss and 6 pass defenses, would probably be the better fit. Unfortunately, Polley never looked too impressive when I saw St. Louis play, he probably realizes he is the best free agent LB still available, and has a big price tag. LB Anthony Simmons was an outstanding linebacker in Seattle before his career was derailed by injuries, however Simmons probably wants a lot of money too and who knows if he is healthy. There are a few middle linebacker types available (LB Rob Morris, LB Jay Foreman, LB Scott Fujita) but they are middle linebackers and Bates would want more speed than they would bring to the team. Overall, none of these players seem a good fit, but the Packers need more depth at linebacker.

Still no word on the Packers safety position. Maybe that is something better addressed at the end of free agency.

There isn't much to say about the loss of FS Darren Sharper to Minnesota. Minnesota picked up a big play maker on defense and paid him about the same in a signing bonus as the Packers would have paid in a roster bonus ($4 million). Part of the problem was that Sharper's Packer base salary would have been higher than his Minnesota base salary. Sharper should be a good to great player over the next four seasons of the contract. It strengthens a division rival while weakening the Packers. The only good news this offseason in Minnesota is that the loss of WR Randy Moss can't be overcome by these other additions.

The Packers have been busy reconstructing their offensive line. Resigning OL Grey Ruegamer was a good start; he wanted to stay with the Packers and he was dirt cheap (around $540,000 with a "modest" signing bonus according to jsonline.com). The Packers know what they are getting with Ruegamer, but if that was so great then the Packers wouldn't have cut him in the first place. OL Adrian Klemm probably is being paid too much, but a 2 year $2.6 million contract, according to jsonline.com, is pretty cheap for the modern NFL. Klemm should have been a minimum wage signing, but a number of teams were apparently interested in what Klemm could be. Klemm's only 27 years old and could be a useful starter. The real interesting thing about Klemm is that if he could have stayed healthy over the last five seasons, he would have started at left tackle for three Super Bowl teams in New England. The big downside with Klemm is that there is a lot of what he could have been in his career. OT/TE Kevin Barry resigned with the Packers. The Packers used to have dreams of Barry at right tackle and RT Mark Tauscher at guard, but those dreams have probably died over the last two seasons. Barry is still young, healthy, and familar with the offense; so the price was right. The final signing (so far) is OL Matt O'Dwyer. O'Dwyer missed all of last season in Tampa and had been known for having quite a temper. In 1999, O'Dwyer was arrested for felony assault at a bar along with two other New York Jets linemen, including current Jets LT Jason Fabini. Thirty-one (31!) officers were called to the scene because of the size of the three men. O'Dwyer allegedly kicked out the window of a police cruiser. O'Dwyer is not the teddy bear of the NFL, which isn't necessarily a bad thing in an offensive lineman, and he has been named the starter on every team he has played for in the NFL. If O'Dwyer is healthy, then he will probably be starting at one of the guard spots next season. At the veteran's minimum, it is a pretty good deal. The Packers are probably done in free agency at offensive line, but it would be very surprising if no offensive linemen are drafted next month.

Another harmless signing was TE David Martin. Martin has managed to regress (although injuries have played a part) every season in the NFL, so he probably has ran out of chances with the Packers. Except the pass catching TE is an endangered species on the current Packers roster, and because Martin can catch the ball some, he is getting another chance.

Multiple sites reported that QB Brett Favre will return for next season. The Packers best
chance next season is Favre, WR Javon Walker, RB Ahman Green, rebuild the offensive line,
let new defensive coordinator Jim Bates improve the defense, and win the NFC North again.
Still some work to do with the offensive line and defense, and the defense wasn't made any
easier by the release of FS Darren Sharper. Just a giant loss.

The only possible good side to Sharper's departure is that Jim Bates never had a top
safety while in Miami. He built the defense around great cornerbacks (it would be a
stretch to say CBs Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain = CBs Al Harris and Ahmad Carroll), a
great linebacker (LB Nick Barnett isn't LB Zack Thomas but not too far apart) and a great
defensive end (DE Jason Taylor is probably one of the top 5 defensive players in the NFL,
but DE KGB is underrated and one of the top 5 defensive ends in the NFL). Maybe Bates can
work around the fact that he is without a safety worthy of starting in the NFL on his
roster.

OG Marco Rivera had back surgery? One week after signing for giant bucks in Dallas he
injures his back on a tread mill. Unbelievable. Hopefully Rivera recovers quickly but
this is why the Packers shouldn't have matched that huge offer; Rivera is going to start
braking down at this point in his career.

The Packers quiet free agent season continues. Jsonline.com reported that the Packers met
with the uninteresting trio of OG Cosey Coleman, OG Floyd Womack, and TE Freddie Jones.
Its unlikely that a majority of GMs in the NFL believe that any of these three players are
starters. Jones has a no block/good catch reputation but might have trouble beating out
TE Ben Steele or TE Sean McHugh on the roster. McHugh is a bit of a mystery; the Packers
were high on him after they claimed him from Tennessee at the start of the season, but he
saw no playing time. Womack would probably be preferred over Coleman, but both players
are the type that a team should develop from a low draft choice (OG Marco Rivera-6th
round, OT Mark Tauscher-7th round).

Minnesota continues its up and down offseason by signing CB Fred Smoot with a $10.8
million signing bonus. Minnesota's defense was awful last season, but adding someone like
Smoot isn't an automatic improvement. Signing CB Antonio Winfield last season, who played
very well against the Packers when his health permitted, didn't help much either.
Minnesota already has the players to make the defense work, its their coaching that is the
problem.

Chicago signed OT Fred Miller with a $6 million signing bonus. What a way to spend money.
Miller has played on some very good St. Louis and Tennessee teams over the last few
seasons. Maybe Chicago is hoping some of their wins will come with Miller from those
teams.

Detroit signed TE Marcus Pollard and SS Kenoy Kennedy. Kennedy only seems to make news
with illegal hits. Pollard is 33 and in the twilight of his career. Neither signing
seems a huge help.

CB Michael Hawthorne was cut according to jsonline.com. Not a big surprise since Hawthorne looked terrible as the starting cornerback last season when given an early opportunity. He didn't have the speed to keep up with NFL wide receivers, and that's the kiss of death for a cornerback. Jsonline.com followed up on the really disappointing release of FS Darren Sharper. The Packers currently have a roster with no starting offensive guards or safeties (unless SS Mark Roman has somehow improved a better player over the last two months) and have the first real big holes in their roster that they have had in a while. The last two times they had such big openings on their roster was two seasons ago when they only had LB Na'il Diggs pencilled in at starting linebacker and in 1999 when they had to draft cornerbacks with their first three picks.

Jsonline.com also reported that OG Mike Wahle didn't receive as big a signing bonus ($8 million instead of $11.5). Not that the Packers had a realistic chance at fitting under the salary cap in either situation. It was pretty interesting that a bidding war began over OG Marco Rivera between Detroit and Dallas, and pushed Rivera's signing bonus over ($9 million) over Wahle's. Wahle should have gotten more (just as good if not better player plus younger, but Rivera has been to a couple of Pro Bowls) but the Packers didn't have a chance at matching the contract demands for either player.

Just a reminder, I only talk about signing bonuses for contracts because that is the only true and guaranteed portion of the contract. Much of the total contract value for many signings is only for show (big $$$ at the end of the contract that the team would never pay).

Jsonline.com reported that Cleveland LB Kevin Bentley would meet with the Packers. At 6'1" 240lbs and a former 4th round selection, he is similar to Diggs but not as tall. Bentley didn't start in 2004, but he was 3rd on Cleveland with 91 tackles in 2003 with 2 pass defenses and 1 interception. Not very impressive stats, but he is only 25 years old so he could still improve. Not very exciting free agent news, but with the Packers cap blues, Bentley is probably the typical free agent the Packers will talk to this offseason.

OG Marco Rivera signed with Dallas for a $9 million signing bonus according to AP. Wow. The Packers had no chance at matching that offer. To have matched that offer, the Packers would have to release at least the contracts of FS Darren Sharper and the contract offer to TE Bubba Franks, plus probably at least one other player. That would have been the end of the Packers offseason. Rivera won't be easily replaced, but the Packers had to let him go at that price.

OG Mike Wahle signed for an $11.5 million signing bonus to play in Carolina according to jsonline.com. That is bigger than Rivera's signing bonus, but it was expected that Wahle would get that much money and play tackle. It is surprising that Carolina signed him to play right instead of left tackle, but they already have a good left tackle in OT Jordan Gross. The Packers never had a chance of fitting Wahle under the salary cap.

San Diego signed S Bhawoh Jue on the first day? Jue was quoted by AP "I can't tell you why a starting position never came my way." It was because Jue was beyond awful in 2003 and improved to almost average in 2004. Plus, playing next to an injured Sharper and struggling SS Mark Roman made his play look better. It would be surprising if Jue ever becomes a full time starter in San Diego.

At least the rest of the NFC North isn't looking much better in free agency, so far. Minnesota traded WR Randy Moss for LB Napoleon Harris and the #7 pick, while signing DT Pat Williams to plug up the middle ala NT Grady Jackson. Williams has been playing very well for the past few seasons in Buffalo, but he is on the wrong side of 30. Harris could be an upgrade over lost LB Chris Claiborne to St. Louis and who knows what they do with the #7 pick. Minnesota's offense was good without Moss last season, but that was only for a few weeks and not a good sample size. Minnesota has to be considered a big net loss so far without Moss. Chicago signed WR Muhsin Muhammad (while forgetting that Muhammad too is on the wrong side of 30 and was useless until he perked up in the 2003 playoffs and carried it forward for all of 2004). Muhammad can't throw the ball to himself, so this wasn't an inspired signing. Detroit hasn't done anything in free agency yet and doesn't seem rumored to do anything other than sign a veteran to backup (excuse me, push) mediocre QB Joey Harrington.

I didn't know about the lack of distinction between offensive guards/center/tackles for franchise tags. It probably explains why I can't remember a single guard or center ever being tagged. That doesn't make any sense because they are paid at greatly different levels, but I don't think anyone in the NFL has any interest in correcting that oversight.

I really have no idea what Ted Thompson will do with the offensive line. I've given up addressing it after Rivera and Wahle. Now Ruegamer is cut and Kevin Barry is given a low ball contract offer, leaving only Scott Wells for depth. I'm still not sure Mike Flanagan will come back from his injuries. He was out last season due to complications from the horrible leg injury he suffered in the mid-90s. Flanagan can play anywhere on the line so his return would be huge, but I'm not counting on it until I see it. Flanagan at guard and Wells at center makes a lot of sense too. The Packers were high on Steve Morley when they signed him, but I suspect they weren't high on him after they saw him in camp. There has been past talk about moving Tauscher to guard and start Barry at right tackle too. Right now, other than Clifton at left tackle, anything could happen.

Free agency is beginning...

After reading various articles on espn.com and jsonline.com, it doesn't seem likely that either OG Mike Wahle or OG Marco Rivera will be retained. Wahle is no surprise departure; his salary cap figure was insane high (>$11 million) and he deserves a big free agent contract to start at left
tackle for some other team. Rivera's age and history of injuries (to Rivera's huge credit, injuries
which he has usually played through) might make him lightly pursued in free agency. ESPN reported that Dallas might want Rivera, so that might end Rivera's career as a Packer.

The all restricted free agents were all given the lowest tender contract offers according to
jsonline.com. It seems unlikely that any team would hotly pursue QB Craig Nall or J.T. O'Sullivan. It wasn't good to see DE Aaron Kampman given the lowest tender offer. If some team wanted to sign Kampman, it would only cost them a 5th round pick. Kampman was solid again in 2004, he was the Packers best defensive player in the win at Minnesota that clinched the division championship, and it would be a step down at defensive end to replace him with anyone else currently on the roster. On the other hand, Kampman isn't the most gifted athlete and might not draw much interest. RB Najeh Davenport is probably going to sign somewhere else now that his new team would only have to surrender a 4th round pick to sign him. Davenport is a great talent and would be missed, but he has had problems staying healthy for years and isn't as young (27) as you would think.

Hopefully the Packers quit talking to FS Darren Sharper about a pay cut and rework his deal for the salary cap. He can't be replaced with anyone currently on the roster, and the depth chart at safety would be topped with two players (S Bhawoh Jue and S Mark Roman) who both could be cut. The only reason to keep either Jue or Roman is that they can play cornerback too and neither player costs much. Neither one of them should be starting next season. Sharper would draw interest as a free agent and probably would be lost.

After reading Tom Silverstein's article at jsonline.com, I see I was mistaken with OG Mike Wahle's free agency. His contract isn't expiring, but his cap number is $11 million next season, which is far too high and intended to force the Packers to release him. It doesn't seem possible that the Packers could use their franchise tag on Wahle. That's too bad, because it would really surprise me if Wahle doesn't sign a contract with a signing bonus over $10 million next season to start at left tackle for some other team.

The rest of Silverstein's article is very good too and does a great job of setting up the next four weeks for the Packers front office. Silverstein does put too much emphasis on retaining LB Hannibal Navies, who rarely made plays last season, and took a big step back from his solid 2003 season. OG Marco Rivera is a priority for next season, but how many seasons will he play at a Pro Bowl level? His knees have taken a pounding over the last few seasons and he didn't seem to play as well in 2004 as past seasons. If his contract demands are to be paid like as one of the highest paid offensive guards in the NFL, which they should be, then the Packers might be better off in the long run to let him go. Although it would be harder to convince QB Brett Favre to return without Rivera and Wahle back on the offensive line. Rivera's return is a not an easy decision.

TE Bubba Franks was tagged as the Packers franchise player, as multiple sources reported. It makes some sense to let Franks go out and price himself in the marketplace, then if some team offers Franks a reasonable contract, the Packers can easily match it. It probably depends on whether a team with cap space really wants to upgrade their tight end position this offseason; it would easy to write a contract that the Packers can't afford to match and they have to let Franks go for no compensation.

If the Packers think FS Darren Sharper would accept a pay cut, then they must be crazy. Unless Sharper's loyalty to the Packers is beyond my imagination, if Sharper is a free agent this offseason, then he would find a team willing to pay him a multi-million dollar signing bonus on a long term contract. If the Packers want to reduce Sharper's salary cap figure and keep him, then they have to offer him some guaranteed money and an extension. This can often lead to salary cap jail in the future if you do this with too many players, but Sharper can still play at a high level for a few more seasons and be worth the dollars in future seasons.

Overall this is a tough first offseason for Ted Thompson. It would be more difficult to rebound next season with the losses of Rivera, Wahle, Franks, and Sharper (assuming Favre returns). Favre's departure would change every other decision in the offseason.

Its been a quiet past couple of Packer weeks.

There has been speculation on QB Brett Favre's retirement, but nothing is really known at this point (maybe Favre himself doesn't know what he wants to do).

Further speculation has been whether FS Darren Sharper will remain a Packer. Hopefully he stays but his 2005 cap number is too big. Sharper has lost a step over the last two seasons, but he still makes big plays, he is just turning 30, and he isn't too old or slow to remain a top NFL safety for the next few seasons. The Packers will probably have to guarantee him some money now to spread out his salary over the next few seasons.

Will some Packer get the franchise tag? I've read about TE Bubba Franks being tagged, but that seems unlikely after Franks's average past couple of seasons. Maybe OG Mike Wahle or OG Marco Rivera will be tagged. The salary cap value to tag either player would be less than other players because offensive guards are generally lesser paid players. Rivera would probably receive a franchise tag to keep him a Packer, but Wahle might get tagged and traded to a team that would play him at left tackle (and pay him bigger left tackle bucks). ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli had an article about teams using the franchise tag to obtain compensation for free agent departures a week ago, so it is possible that the Packers might decide to do the same. Remember that the Packers are currently over the salary cap so they won't be quick to place the franchise tag on any player (they would have to restructure contracts or release players to make it possible) and players are more likely to leave than to stay at this point.

If Wahle and/or Rivera leave this offseason, its likely that OG Steve Morley is at the front of the line, along with C Grey Ruegamer or C Scott Wells depending on whether C Mike Flanagan can return from his injuries. Morley was just sent to NFL Europe to get some more experience. OT Kevin Barry could return and start at right tackle, with RT Mark Tauscher switching to guard too. Morley was probably the Packer with only legitimate chance of starting or making the roster who was sent to NFL Europe, although bust P B.J. Sander was sent too.

If the current roster is left intact and new defensive coordinator can Jim Bates turn the defense into a NFL average unit, then the Packers are better than any team in the NFC except Philadelphia and have a great shot at making the Super Bowl. That should be the goal for this offseason.

It looks like WR Donald Driver will be proven wrong. After various sources reported on Driver's radio show comments that QB Brett Favre would be retiring, espn.com's Chris Mortenson reported that Favre will be staying. Hopefully Favre will be playing for a couple more seasons. Favre isn't the best QB in the NFL and he takes too many chances (although they work out as often as they don't), but he will remain a threat to lead the NFC in TD passes next season (he led the NFL in 2003 and QB Daunte Culpepper could throw fewer in 2005 if WR Randy Moss is traded and so might QB Donovan McNabb if WR Terrell Owens doesn't fully recover from his broken leg-remember WR Jerry Rice was never the same after he broke his kneecap) and the Packers could spend the next 25 years (approximate time between QB Bart Starr and Favre's careers) looking for as good a quarterback.

Bob Slowik decided for a change of scenery after the 2004 defensive disaster. Slowik coached a very good Packer secondary from 2001-2003 and was offered the opportunity to return to that position, but he accepted the same job for Denver, as reported by denverbroncos.com last week. He could have been a good coach for the Packers next season, but maybe this was for the best.

After the loss vs. Minnesota, I wrote that the Packers had two top priorities; hiring a new defensive coordinator and a new secondary coach. If Bob Slovik accepts his old secondary coach job back this week, then the Packers will have accomplished both priorites.

New defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Bates finished 2004 as the interim head coach in Miami, after leading Miami as their defensive coordinator on an impressive run of top 10 finishes in total defense (according to footballoutsiders.com) in each of the last 5 seasons (2000-2004). Miami's pass defense under Bates never slipped below 9th (footballoutsiders.com ranked Miami's pass defense 9th in 2004), which was very impressive considering the train wreck that was Miami's 2004 season. Looking at the Packers 2004 defensive stats, the weakness in the Packers' pass defense can be seen in its pass defenses in 2004 (68 in 2004, down from 92 in 2003). Although the Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie and his 18 pass defenses in 2003, it was really a team let down. The Packers top 3 corners in 2003 combined for 37 pass defenses, while in 2004 they combined for 35, which shows that it wasn't replacing McKenzie with CB Ahmad Carroll that caused the problem, but that it was a team let down. Miami totaled pass defenses of 79, 84, 78 in 2004 through 2002 respectively, while being led by the unlikely pair of former Badger CB Jamar Fletcher's 12 in 2002 and DE Jason Taylor's 11 in 2004. Miami has had some great individual players on defense over the last 5 seasons, but Miami hasn't relied on any one player for their excellent pass defense. It has been a team effort coached by Bates.

Hopefully new/old secondary coach Bob Slovik. Slovik couldn't figure out how to make the Packers defense work in 2004 as coordinator, but Slovik had a successful run as secondary coach from 2000-2003 with the Packers. The Packers secondary was in the top 10 (again according to footballoutsiders.com) from 2001-2003, while below average only in Slovik's first season of 2000. Some mitigating factors in 2000; it was the rookie season for DE KGB and he hadn't gotten much playing time yet (former DE John Thierry led the Packers with 6.5 sacks in 2000) and McKenzie hadn't yet been established as the starting cornerback (he only started in 2001-2003). Bottom line; the Packers secondary has been good when Slovik is the secondary coach. Hopefully Slovik wants to stay with the Packers and reestablish himself in the NFL as a good coach with a secondary that should be much improved (minus SS Mark Roman) in 2005 after Carroll and CB Joey Thomas got their rookie seasons out of their systems.

The Packers introduced Ted Thompson as their new GM. Although President Bob Harlan was talking about how Mike Sherman understood the need to reduce his burden entering Sherman's lame duck season of his contract, this was the first real firing in the Packers front office since Ron Wolf was hired in 1991. Since 1991, only two head coaches have been fired (Lindy Infante - 1991 and Ray Rhodes - 1999) and the Packers have been a remarkably stable franchise. There are a few ways to look at this move.

Thompson was a panic hire. After the second Lambeau playoff defeat in three seasons, Harlan had to do something to seem decisive. Thompson was an easy hire because he worked for the Packers for most of the 1990s (1992-1999) and is someone whom Harlan is very familiar. The downside is that Thompson has failed to improve the personnel in Seattle over the last three seasons; the only impact players acquired from 2002-2004 were CB Marcus Trufant and FS Michael Boulware. Seattle's big free agent in 2004, DE Grant Wistrom, was often injured and only recorded 3.5 sacks. Thompson leaves Seattle before the start of a dangerous offseason with their three best players (QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander, and LT Walter Jones) all entering unrestricted free agency.

It was necessary to hire a GM. Mike Sherman was only able to act as GM/Coach because he could rely on Mark Hatley, the former personnel director for Chicago who had never been officially given the title of GM in either Chicago or with the Packers. Unfortunately, Hatley passed away last summer and finding someone of Hatley's caliber willing to work under Sherman was probably an unlikely situation. Therefore, a true GM needed to be hired and Sherman's title would have to be trimmed back to coach only (I haven't read anywhere if Sherman gets to keep the VP title he had).

This contradicts Ron Wolf's last decision as Packers GM to hire Sherman to replace him. Maybe, but the last time Harlan hired a GM was Wolf and Wolf thought enough of Thompson to work alongside him in the Packers front office for several seasons.

In the end Thompson doesn't address the biggest need the Packers have this offseason; fix the defense. Thompson could bring in better defensive players, but I don't blame the players as much as I blame the defensive coaches. Thompson might know how to throw a bunch of high draft choices on Trufant, Boulware, and SS Ken Hamlin, but he can't teach them how to play a zone or cover-2. Thompson's going to have to prove to me that he deserves this job.

For some reason, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee J-S wants Mike Sherman out as GM, maybe even as coach too. Silverstein had an article posted on jsonline.com on 1/12/05 about the Packers alleged pursuit of Seattle's VP of football operations Ted Thompson for GM. Hopefully, Packers' President Bob Harlan doesn't take Silverstein's advise.

Thompson has Packer roots, working under former GM Ron Wolf from 1992 to 1999. Silverstein said "since joining the Seahawks in January 2000, Thompson has run the draft and advised Holmgren on personnel matters." That is probably overstating Thompson's importance. Holmgren didn't give up GM duties in Seattle until Seattle hired Bob Ferguson as their GM in February 2003 (http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Spins/2003/spin021103.htm). Silverstein gave Thompson credit for drafting "running back Shaun Alexander, guard Steve Hutchinson, receiver Darrell Jackson, cornerbacks Ken Lucas and Marcus Trufant and safeties Ken Hamlin and Michael Boulware." If he really wanted to pump up Thompson, he should have mentioned how Thompson fooled Wolf into trading QB Matt Hasselbeck and the pick that became Hutchinson for the pick used on useless DE Jamal Reynolds. Of course, Silverstein didn't mention any of the inept decisions Thompson was involved with, such as drafting TE Jerramy Stevens, or signing injury prone DE Grant Wistrom for big bucks (more than twice what useless ex-Packer bust DE Joe Johnson was paid), or allowing Seattle to come into this offseason with their 3 big offensive stars (T Walter Jones, Hasselbeck and Alexander) all unsigned for 2005. He also failed to mention how Thompson completely failed to improve a very talented 2003 Seattle and allowed them to regress in 2004.

Silverstein appears to think Sherman is useless as a GM. Silverstein does praise Sherman for drafting WR Javon Walker and C Scott Wells (Scott Wells?) but is quick to mention the "numerous mistakes in free agency (Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Tim Couch, Mark Roman, Cletidus Hunt)" Johnson was bad, Hunt has been disappointing (but somewhat underpaid considering what teams now pay for defensive tackles like Cornelius Griffin or Rod Coleman), and Nickerson, Couch and Roman all haven't worked out, but cost the Packers little. "Of his six picks in 2004, the only one who showed promise was seventh-round center Scott Wells," says Silverstein, while ignoring the fact that rookies rarely perform well in their rookie season. If Silverstein wants an example, take a peek at QB Brett Favre's stats his rookie season. How about LB Nick Barnett Tom? Or the 2nd round pick that brought in CB Al Harris?

Sherman has been in charge of 3 drafts since Wolf retired (2002-2004. Ignoring 2004 (rookie seasons don't define players), 2002 and 2003 have brought in Walker, RB Najeh Davenport, DE Aaron Kampman, QB Craig Nall, Barnett, and Harris (traded for 2nd round pick). How did Thompson do in 2002 and 2003? The only noticeable starters are the disappointing Stevens (by the way, Seattle was total suckerpunched in this draft when they tried to trade down and still pick New England TE Daniel Graham, but New England traded up to take Graham and left Seattle stuck with Stevens), CB Marcus Trufant, and S Ken Hamlin. TE Ryan Hannam got some playing time late in the 2004 season too. Maybe QB Seneca Wallace is primed to be the next QB Jeff Blake, otherwise the Packers have drafted better in those two seasons than Seattle.

My point is that Sherman is a competant GM and coach. You can compare Sherman favorable to nearly every other coach or GM in the league over the last three seasons, except Bill Belichek (probably one or two other teams too). Sherman has not done well in free agency, but teams aren't built through free agency (see Washington). He does need someone to replace the late Mark Hatley, but he doesn't need to go looking for a new job. The best thing for a team in the NFL is stability, at least through the last couple seasons for Favre. Changing GM and coach will not put this team any closer to a Super Bowl in the next two seasons (although a change of defensive coordinator and secondary coach remains a must this offseason).

Packers 17, Minnesota 31. Not quite as humiliating as the 2002 home playoff loss against Atlanta but it was still a big hurt. With the defense struggling as bad as it was, QB Brett Favre had to have a perfect game and he was off. Favre struggled in his previous cold Lambeau game against Jacksonville when he threw 3 interceptions and he struggled again against Minnesota in the cold (4 more INTs). It didn't help that the wide receivers appeared to run poor routes on three of the interceptions while the fourth pick was a deflection. No matter how disappointing the outcome, the Packers came into this game as a below average team due to their poor defense and Minnesota played better during the regular season. Minnesota managed to score exactly 31 points in each meeting vs. the Packers and this time the Packers couldn't manage their usual 34 points to get the win. Favre is now considering his future (please come back in 2005!) and the Packers have to figure out where to go from here.

How did they do in 2004? The offense improved! No really. Footballoutsiders.com offensive DVOA rating was 13.3% in 2004, up from 8.1% in 2003. The Packers total offense rating slipped from 8th to 9th, but 2004 was a big season for offense. The offense had more yards per game, fewer sacks, and fewer turnovers. The Packers defense had outplayed the Packers offense from 2001 through 2003 (no really; go to footballoutsiders.com or see below for the shorthand breakdown) but the defense collapsed in 2004. Only the bay area duo of San Francisco and Oakland had worse pass defenses.

So what is wrong with the pass defense?

Interceptions are probably the first answer. The Packers had 24 INTs in 2002 and 21 in 2003, but slipped to 8 in 2004. By the way, Ed Donatell's improved Atlanta pass defense increased their interception to total to 19 in 2004, up from 15 in 2003.

The second answer is pass defenses (PDs). The Packers fell off the cliff, going from 95 PDs in 2002 and 92 PDs in 2003, falling to 68 PDs in 2004. CB Al Harris actually improved his number from 14 PDs in 2003 to 20 PDs in 2004. The Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie's 18 PDs (replacing them with CB Ahmad Carroll's 8) and FS Darren Sharper fell from 13 to 7 PDs. The biggest offenders were the starting linebackers; although LB Nick Barnett had 6 PDs in 2003 and 2004, LB Na'il Diggs and Hannibal Navies fell from a combined 8 PDs in 2003 to 0 (yes zero) PDs in 2004. Ed Donatell's biggest improvement in Atlanta was raising the team's PDs up from a lowly 56 in 2003 to 80 in 2004. The best pass defense in the NFL in 2004, Buffalo, was led in PDs by their outside LB Takeo Spikes's 17, and as a team recorded 83 PDs. The secondary and linebackers inability to get into position to either break up a pass or intercept it was the number one defensive problem in 2004.

It wasn't the lack of a pass rush that led to a poor pass defense either. DE KGB had 13.5 sacks and his stats were nearly identical to his 2001-2003 seasons. The Packers actually had more sacks, up from 34 in 2003 to 40 in 2004, and got into the backfield as much as they ever have with 49 tackles for a loss, down from 57 in 2003 but way up from 36 in 2002.

The run defense slipped in 2004, but the loss of NTs Grady Jackson, James Lee, and Donnell Washington to injuries was as much of the problem as anything else.

So who takes the fall for the awful pass defense that sank the season? Maybe no one; CB Joey Thomas and Carroll had to take on far too much responsiblities far too early in their rookie seasons due to McKenzie's decision to abandon the Packers. Maybe the players; Sharper clearly looked a step slower while playing injured much of the season and SS Mark Roman failed to impress in his first Packer season. Diggs and Navies might both need to be replaced after they failed to have any impact in pass defense. However, most of the blame should fall on the new defensive coaches; coordinator Bob Slovik and secondary coach Kurt Shottenheimer. Players often looked lost in coverage, the rookie cornerbacks didn't develop much during the season, and the defense looked outcoached on too many occasions. Shottenheimer looked like a good hire at the start of the season, but the Packers fell from 92 pass defenses in 2003 to 56 in 2004, while his former team, Detroit, greatly improved from 66 in 2003 to 80 in 2004.

So how to fix the Packers this offseason? Mike Sherman deserves to be back as coach and GM in 2005, but he does need to replace personnel director Mark Hatley, who passed away last summer, and find a good player personnel man to assist him in the future. The Packers need a change at defensive coordinator and secondary coach. It was no slam dunk decision to fire Donatell last season, but Slovik and Shottenheimer need to move on. The Packers might want to consider moving Sharper to strong safety and finding a quicker cornerback-type player to play at free safety. Most important is finding a linebacker who is good in coverage, preferable a veteran player, to replace Navies. Diggs was probably held back due to injury and poor coaching and shouldn't take the blame this season. It won't be easy to juggle salary cap concerns and free agent re-signings so that a veteran linebacker can come to Green Bay and a defensive coaching change is rarely a cure-all, but both need to happen this offseason.

2004 -5% 21; O 13.3% 9 (P 26% 8, R 9.4% 7 ); D 20% 29 (P 32.3% 30, R 4.9% 23); ST -2.8% 24
2003 18.9% 5; O 8.1% 8 (P 11.8% 8, R 4.8% 8); D -9.4% 9 (P -10% 8, R -8.7% 10)
2002 13.2% 8; O 2.8% 19 (P 7.1% 15, R -2.6% 20); D -12.8% 4 (P -32.4% 2, R 10.7% 29)
2001 13.8% 8; O 2.1% 15 (P 12.8% 6, R -11.3% 22); D -11% 11 (P -21.6% 7, R 3.5% 23)

Packers 31, Chicago 14. It was hard to be too inspired to write anything about this game. Chicago phoned it in, at least on offense. The Chicago defense looked bad, but without their best player (LB Bryan Urlacher), they shouldn't be looking too good.

First Half: Bad tackling continues. WR David Terrell ran for a while after CB Al Harris got completely lost and SS Mark Roman continued his poor tackling. But this quick early Chicago TD was their only highlight. The Packers made it look easy scoring against Chicago, and QB Chad Hutchinson helped with the TD pass to FS Darren Sharper. It wasn't the worst decision Hutchinson could have made (although he could have stopped staring at the receiver) and it was a great read by Sharper. QB Craig Nall played well again, his four good game of the season (preseason vs. Tennessee, Tennessee, Philadelphia, and now Chicago). Considering he almost was cut in the preseason in favor of QB Tim Couch, he has really given his career a second life. He is a restricted free agent (I believe) this offseason and might be traded this offseason. Packers 28, Chicago 7.

Second Half: The only concern remains that the Packers run defense didn't play well again. RB Thomas Jones did not have a great season, only rushing for over 100 yards against the Packers twice, Minnesota once and Detroit once (highlight the poor run defense in the NFC North). NT Grady Jackson didn't play to rest his knee, but it wasn't incouraging to let a below average running back run all over you. The Packers offense played to get the game over with. Packers 31, Chicago 14.

In the first few weeks, the biggest concern for the Packers was their depth at defensive tackle. With three key injuries by week 5 (DT Donnell Washington, DT James Lee, and DT Grady Jackson), it was a big problem. Well the problem is back. Lee is now on IR and gone for the season, he missed the last couple of games anyway, and Jackson has reaggravated/reinjured his knee and needs more surgery. Undrafted rookie DT Colin Cole made his first appearance as a Packer last week in Minnesota for some added depth. Jackson is putting his needed (no pun intended) surgery and play through the rest of the season. Teams seem to love to run away from Jackson, so if Jackson stops playing it could be a very quick postseason. The most likely first round opponent, Carolina, isn't a very good running team (now starting their 4th string RB Nick Goings), unfortunatley the likely 2nd round opponent, Atlanta, is a very good running team although their big RB T.J. Duckett will probably play his first game in a month in the playoffs after undergoing December knee surgery.

Should the Packers sit out their players in Chicago? I hope not. Last season, Denver came into Green Bay in week 17 to play a meaningless game, sat all their regulars, and then got blown out in the playoffs. Injured players like LB Na'il Diggs and Jackson should sit, but the rest of the team should play at least the first half.

Packers 34, Minnesota 31. NFC NORTH CHAMPS!!! A very surprising end to a disappointing 1-4 start. What changed during the season to turn 1-4 into 9-6? Surprisingly it was the improvement in the offense. The defense has been run over all season, but in the Packers first 5 games, only the week 3 loss against Indianapolis was an excellent offensive performance. Tom Rossely's health problems that led to Mike Sherman calling plays after week 5 could have been a reason. The offense played fine at Carolina and vs. Chicago, but neither was a dominant performance. The Packers offense didn't score a TD against Tennessee until they were down 24-3, which was far too late. The offense was in a slump starting against Philadelphia, continuing vs. Detroit, and didn't break out until the 2nd half vs. Jacksonville. The offense has overall been great this season, but the defense can't stop anybody and the offense has to play at a very high level the rest of the season.

First Half: Please, please, please tackle somebody. LB Nick Barnett is playing hard but can't cover the entire field. LB Na'il Diggs is trying to play through a serious back/kidney injury. There is no one in the defensive backfield that was not tackling bad. Jsonline.com has a recent article pointing the finger at SS Mark Roman, who is the most perplexing tackler, because prior to December he was the best tackler in the secondary but he has been playing poorly ever since. CB Joey Thomas's wiff on the tackle of RB Michael Bennett's TD run was the worst missed tackle I've seen in the NFL this season. Fortunately, QB Brett Favre had his way with Minnesota's defense for the second time this season. Minnesota held the big play in check, but couldn't stop Favre moving the offense down the field on long drives. Favre will have to play like this the rest of the season. Packers 17, Minnesota 21.

Second Half: As bad as the Packers secondary was at tackling, they played very well in coverage. The tackling improved, the coverage was good, and Minnesota didn't get a big play on offense the rest of the game. Their only TD was the outstanding interception by LB Chris Claiborne. The Packers defense has had problems with good tight ends in coverage all season, but TE Jermaine Wiggins was covered well and had minimal impact after being a major weapon against the Packers in week 10. DE Aaron Kampman had his best game of the season and had a major impact. He ran down WR Nate Burleson down from behind on a short pass, which was unbelievable. Minnesota's WRs just gave up on QB Daunte Culpepper in the fourth quarter. How great is it to have automatic (within 40 yards) K Ryan Longwell with the Packers? Packers 34, Minnesota 31.

The most amazing thing about this game was the way the score, final play, total yardage were all identical with the week 10 game in Green Bay.

Reggie White's funeral was today. When I first heard the news, it really surprised me, and reminded me of the too young passing of former Chief Derrick Thomas. White's signing with Green Bay was the fourth and final major step that led to the Packers two mid 90s Super Bowl appearances, after signing Ron Wolf, signing Mike Holmgren, and trading for Brett Favre. There is a lot of commentary on the internet over the last week regarding Reggie White the man and player. While no one has disputed Reggie White as a great football player, many comments have been made about White has said over the years (his comments on homosexualty apparently cost him a job with CBS) and charitable activites he never actually did (failed to pay a promised donation to a charity in Denver and never rebuilt the church destroyed by fire in the mid 90s). I'm not the best person to address Reggie White the person, so I'll leave that for other websites. But Reggie White the player was dominate at times, always the first concern of every opposing offense and made the entire defense better, and the second greatest Packer player since the end of the Lombardi era.

The only regret of Reggie White's Packer career should be the way it ended. If it hadn't been the salary cap era, it would have never been a problem. But White was unsure about retirement over the entire 1997 season (he played hurt most of the season) and throughout and after the 1998 season. Ron Wolf was trying to plan for life after Reggie on defense, but needed the salary cap relief Reggie's retirement would bring after the 1998 season. New head coach Ray Rhodes asked Reggie to reconsider retirement and he appeared to be considering a return in 1999, but Ron Wolf ran out of time and had to ask Reggie to officially retire with the NFL. Reggie was NFC defensive player of the year in 1998 and obviously wanted to play again or he wouldn't have played for Carolina in 2000. Its a small regret, but it would have been great to have seen White play for the Packers in 1999 and 2000.

Packers 28, Jacksonville 25. The good news is that this game truly didn't matter. When the Packers beat Minnesota next week, the Packers essentially assure themselves the #3 seat and the NFC North championship. A Packers loss would result in the top wild card spot and a game at probably Seattle (someone has to win the NFC West). All the problems that resulted in the Packers loss were fundamental problems with the team that aren't going to be fixed this season if ever.

First Half: Jacksonville scores an easy TD. Who's fault is it? Just about everyone (defensive coaches and players) can take some blame. QB Brett Favre/RB Ahman Green fumble in the red zone (1 of 3 red zone turnovers). Fumbles and Green just seem to go together and there is nothing to be done about it. Then the defensive penalties start...Are the Packers defensive players frustrated or poorly coached or both? All 3 top CBs Al Harris, Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas keep constantly grabbing the receivers. Jacksonville has two of the top DTs in the NFL in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, rookie 3rd string C Scott Wells held his own, and he even handled Henderson one-on-one on a big Green run play. Great heads up play by FS Darren Sharper (everyone on both sides gave up on an apparent incompletion except Sharper who stripped the ball from an offensive lineman who picked up the ball and ran in it for a TD). K Ryan Longwell missed his first field goal within the 40 yard line in a long while and it cost in this game (this again isn't a problem that needs or can be fixed but it cost the Packers big in this game). Overall it was a very poor half with a lot of Packer turnovers and penalties. Packers 10, Jacksonville 14.

Second Half: TE Ben Steele has been useless for weeks, but he caught a couple of short passes in
this game and finally started to show his usefulness. The Packers took advantage of their blocker overload on short yardage running plays to set up the TD pass to WR Donald Driver (who is sneaking up on an outstanding season). They had been overloading blockers to the strong side all season, usually ran for the short gain for the first down, and used that tendency to set up the TD pass. How did the Packers run defense set up a big RB Fred Taylor TD run? Everyone (coaches and players) can take some blame. Sharper blitzed to the wrong side and took himself out of the play (was it his fault or a bad scheme?), DT Cletidus Hunt was blocked by one blocker and pushed out of the hole, NT Grady Jackson was blocked by the left guard one-on-one, if either Hunt or Jackson had occupied more than one blocker then the center couldn't have come out and blocked LB Nick Barnett out of the play, and finally SS Mark Roman (who has had a bad last few games and might have played his way out of the lineup for next season) took a bad angle and couldn't make the tackle. Maybe LB Hannibal Navies should be the middle linebacker (he is bigger than Barnett) because he showed again that he can't cover anybody. Rookie DE Corey Williams had a lot more playing time this game and made some plays to show that he might be a starter next season. How many times can Favre throw an interception in the end zone? In this game, the answer is twice. The interception to CR Rashean Mathis in the end zone was a true stinker (Favre just lost sight of him) and Mathis's second interception appeared to be caused by the cold when Favre's out pass just lost its zip across the field. FS Deon Grant's interception was a great play on Grant's part with perfect timing. How can coach Jack Del Rio defend SS Donovan Darius's attempt to take WR Robert Ferguson's head off? That was the most vicious attempt to intentionally hurt a Packer since DT Warren Sapp broke LT Chad Clifton's hip a couple of seasons ago and it can't be defended. WR Antonio Chatman got his first TD reception for his career, which is great for him since he has played better than now injured WR Robert Ferguson and truly is the 3rd wide receiver. The Packers almost got the onside kick, but that was a long shot anyway. Packers 25, Jacksonville 28.

Overall the Packers should just forget about this game, threaten to amputate the cornerbacks' hands if any of them keep grabbing at the wide receivers, and go win in Minnesota next week.

Below this post is the current post regarding the Packers/Detroit game. I posted this about Philadelphia right after the game two weeks ago but apparently blogger ate it. So I'm reposting it.

Packers 17, Philly 47. Well forget about that one. Instead of going over the shelling blow-by-blow, lets talk about the...

Offense. By far their worst game of the season. QB Brett Favre had his string of games with a TD pass end, the offensive line was physically beaten, and the receivers didn't get seperation/make plays. Minor minor note: TE Ben Steele dropped his 5-6 pass attempt in the last 3-4 games (replacing injured TE David Martin in the offensive scheme) without catching a pass and he has to be removed from the scheme. Mike Sherman needs to take a close look at this game film and find out what needs to be adjusted. QB Craig Nall has only played in two games this season (the last preseason game and this game). In the preseason, he convinced the Packers that they could safely release QB Tim Couch, and in this game he showed he has some potential. He is QB A.J. Feeley (Miami) good and a pretty good backup QB.

Defense. The secondary played poorly today, but they weren't helped by a very poor defensive scheme (especially on the first TD pass to WR Terrell Owens when they played 20 yards off of him) that employed a lot of zone/cover 2/matador schemes. Just a horrible defensive scheme. Philadelphia followed the Indianapolis game plan of passing for the entire first half and building up a giant lead. This would be awful, except Indianapolis has been torching the entire NFL this season and Philadelphia has a great pass offense, so its not just the Packers problem. Obviously nothing can be wholesale fixed this season, but this is the third 40+ point game allowed this season, so it needs to be fixed for next season. The secondary is pretty set with big contracts for CB Al Harris and FS (maybe 2005 SS?) Darren Sharper and both rookies (CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas) should be better next season. The linebackers need to be fixed; maybe wholesale changes, maybe replacing LB Hannibal Navies (he just doesn't make any plays), maybe something else, etc. The defensive line needs the most work. DE KGB has good games, he played well against Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace last week, but some weeks he isn't a factor. DE Aaron Kampman never gives up on a play and has accumulated some sacks this season. There has been zero push from the interior, where DT Cletidus Hunt has been pulled on passing downs for DT Cullen Jenkins and NT Grady Jackson is the best interior pass rusher. Finding a defensive tackle who can create a pass rush is the top priority. Maybe changing the defensive coaching staff is in the future too.

Everyone in the NFC is playing poorly, except Philadelphia which is battling for best team in the NFL status along with Pittsburgh and New England, so the Packers should still win their division. Forget about this game and get ready to beat Detroit next week at Lambeau.

Packers 16, Detroit 13. A game they should have won, although Detroit is playing better than the Packers this season, and they won it. How can Detroit be the better team with a worse record and an anemic/pathetic offense? The Packers turn the ball over (-11 turnover differential) while Detroit doesn't (+8) and Detroit's defense is average while the Packers defense is bottom 5 in the NFL. Because Detroit protects the ball on offense and plays solid defense, they have been in a position to win games this season, but if this game was any indication, QB Joey Harrington just can't finish the opponent off in the 4th quarter.

First half: QB Brett Favre continues his offensive malaise. Favre's human and he goes through slumps and this one started in the first quarter in Philadelphia. The offense couldn't get anything going in the first half. It wasn't just Favre, WR Javon Walker was held in check almost the entire game and WR Donald Driver and TE Ben Steele (for about the fifth game in a row) contributed alongside Walker as each had a dropped pass. Could the refs call some more penalties? They were all legitimate penalties, but the refs called this game tight. Detroit's first scoring drive was all penalties. RB Kevin Jones continued to look good. He's been one of the best backs in the NFL during the 2nd half of the season and the Packers missing tackles (DE KGB blew a tackle on Jones's TD run) did help. In the game vs. St. Louis, two DBs ran into each other on a crossing route and WR Issac Bruce ran for about 50 yards after the catch. Same thing happened in this game and WR Az Hakim ran for about 15 yards. The Packers have to fix this because the next three opponents are going to try and exploit this confusion. The defense played poorly (considering they were only trying to stop Detroit) but held them to two field goals on two of the scoring drives. Packers 0, Detroit 13.

Second half: The refs tight calls started helping the Packers and the first scoring drive was fueled almost exclusively by penalties (55 penalty yards and 13 offense yards). Harrington: 2 completions in the 3rd quarter and 0! in the 4th quarter. How can you not come back from a two score deficit against Detroit? Harrington looked awful but the pass coverage was very tight in the half and the run defense was much better (no missed tackles). This was the worst wind I have seen in an NFL game this season. The wind gave an additional 15 yards one direction and took away 15 yards the other. The receivers stop dropping passes and Favre shakes off the slump with a 90 yard TD drive. The wind killed P Nick Harris's last punt and gave the Packers the field position they needed to win the game. Packers 16, Detroit 13.

Overall this was an ugly game to watch. The Packers weren't playing their best, Detroit's offense was inept, and a ton of penalties. Jacksonville is slumping bad (and coming up from Florida to play in Green Bay in December) and should have no chance, but they too have played better than the Packers this season. Jacksonville is very comparable to Detroit, although they are playing better thanks to better QB play. Just need to keep winning and don't have to worry about what your conference foes are doing.

Packers 45, St. Louis 17. QB Brett Favre and RB Najeh Davenport. I haven't talking enough about the great season Favre is having, and I've just been taking his great play for granted. His completion percentage is over 65% again this season, while on pace for 30 TDs again this season. Further, Favre is keeping better care of the ball (only 11 INTs so far this season), while on pace for the fewest sacks in a season. In 2003, Favre had a couple of games (losses) when he seemed he could do no right (week 1 vs. Minnesota, at Arizona, and Turkey Day at Detroit) but he has had none of those games in 2004. This might be the most consistent season of his career. During his MVP seasons, Mike Holmgren would defer if the Packers won the coin toss because he knew Favre was too juiced early in the game and he was better off with the extra possession in the second half after Favre calmed down. Mike Sherman doesn't have to coach that same player anymore. Davenport has been battling injuries all season long, and because of them we had to wait until week 12 for Davenport to really show off this season. Davenport showed off his great speed to accelerate past the line of scrimmage, the Packers offensive line owned St. Louis's defensive line in this game, and he has the strength to shove smaller defensive players (paging S Rich Coady) out of his way in the open field. The third unsung star of the game was the football itself; the Packers had multiple fumbles bounce out of bounds and any one of them could have turned the whole game around. St. Louis defense isn't good at all this season, but the Packers offense still played a nearly perfect game.

The defense was a problem again, although forcing 3 turnovers was a big improvement. Over 400 yards of passing by QB Marc Bulger in the game. Only 47 yards of rushing, but RB Steven Jackson looked good (40 yards on 8 carries) when he had the opportunity. Bob Slovik didn't call a great game; St. Louis caught the Packers with 4 defensive backs on 4 wide receivers a couple of times in the game, the Packers blitzes didn't force much pressure on Bulger, and the coverage was very soft. The defense benefited from zero turnovers by the Packers offense; St. Louis always had to drive the length of the field and the Packers defense gave up no big yardage plays once St. Louis drove into Packer territory. The Packers appeared to turn up their intensity after the Mike Martz last minute time out cost the Packers a fumble recovery. Rookies CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas each had their best games so far; Thomas forced the early fumble which led to Carroll's TD run and Carroll had an interception in the end zone. With FS Darren Sharper's return to the starting lineup, the secondary could turn into the defense's strength in the last 5 games. The only downside was SS Mark Roman probably had his poorest game of the season with a couple of missed tackles (including RB Marshall Faulk's TD reception) but he has been a solid tackler all season (and preseason) long.

The Packers play at Philadelphia next week. Philadelphia should clobber the Packers, but these are the two hottest teams in the NFC at this point. If the Packers seriously believe they can make it to the Super Bowl this season, then they have to find a way to beat Philadelphia this season. If the Packers can avoid committing turnovers and force turnovers like they did against St. Louis, then they can win at Philadelphia. Its common knowledge you can run against Philadelphia's run defense, but actually their pass defense is worse than their run defense this season according to footballoutsiders.com. Unfortunately the Packers defense has been one of the worst in the NFL (thanks again Aaron). For all the Packers might have tried to fix the problems of 4th and 26 from last season's playoff loss, the Packers defense is still suspectible to allowing conversions on 3rd and long this season and is basically playing the same cast of characters in the secondary and at linebacker.

Starting Packers RB James Jackson!!! If Jackson starts on Monday night, the Packers will have some problems. It sounds like RB Tony Fisher and RB Ahman Green could be available on Monday night, but its too early to tell. Green's injury (ribs) probably will sideline him for a week. Fisher is good enough to carry the load, but his neck stinger is the type of injury that should he let heal for a couple of weeks. The problem with Jackson is not so much is awful career rushing average (barely 3 yards/carry), because the Packers offensive line should help him run like a competant running back (they even made RB Walter Williams look good against Houston), but that he doesn't understand the offense at all and might miss a blocking assignment that leads to a hit on QB Brett Favre. Luckily, St. Louis's defense has looked awful this season, and this is a good time to hide a bushel of injuries at running back until Green and Fisher are fully healthy in another week. The Packers signed RB Chris Robertson to the practice squad as well, but if it comes down to Robertson it could get scary.

Packers 16, Houston 13. The Packers had a lot of first half opportunities, but the offense stalled in Houston territory. In the second half, Houston had plenty of opportunities to put the game away, but their offense couldn't put anything together and gave the Packers one too many opportunities. A five game winning streak is good news, but the Packers are still one of the premier pretenders in the NFL this season. If it weren't for awful awful St. Louis somehow managing a 5-5 record (thanks Seattle!) the Packers would be the number one over achiever in the NFL this season. The Packers defense has to start creating more turnovers for any long term success.

First Half: RB Walter Williams; who knew he was on the roster? The bad news of course is RB Ahman Green's rib injury and he might have to miss a week (similar to the week Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook missed earlier this season with his rib injury). Williams actually ran the ball pretty well in the first half, due to the fact that the Packers offensive line has been kicking ass the last three weeks. If it weren't for two killer holding penalties on LG Mike Wahle during the game, the offensive line (no sacks for the game and 4.3 yards/carry with Williams carrying the load) would have been the unit of the game. Bob Trumpe (he's still around doing the radio commentary) was critical of the Packers run defense, but the yards per carry stats were very skewed by the long scrambles by QB David Carr. The Packers continued the league trend of stopping RB Dominick Davis for a short yards per carry average during this game. LB Hannibal Navies was victimized again this game on the TD pass by Carr to Davis. The play wasn't Navies fault, he was stuck in no man's land (cover Carr or cover Davis), but Navies has been abused in the passing game the past few weeks. CB Al Harris had his second great game in a row. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet, but he neutralized WR Andre Johnson. Johnson had over 100 yards for the game, but Johnson was clearly the most dangerous wide receiver the Packers have seen this season. He should be a constant Pro Bowl invitee with his size and speed, and was clearly the most dangerous player on the field. Additional kudos to rookie CB Ahmad Carroll, because only three Houston players caught passes during the game and his primary assignments of WR Javar Gaffney and WR Corey Bradford caught a combined zero passes in this game. Houston's defense had a great first half; they stopped the Packers offense three times in Houston territory and it only resulted in 3 Packer points and shut down QB Brett Favre on the last drive of the first half, which led to an end of half field goal. Packers 3, Houston 13.

Second Half: The Packers defense takes over. Houston only drove into Packer territory twice in the second half, and both times they were sacked back into Houston territory. Davis couldn't run the ball, Carr didn't scramble for big yards, and receivers were rarely open. If the Packers had forced a turnover or two, it would have been a perfect 10 defensive half. The secondary looks better every week with Carroll in at starting cornerback, and this was rookie CB Joey Thomas's best game (not great, but his best game so far). NT Grady Jackson had another solid game, and DT Cullen Jenkins has worked himself into as many snaps as DT Cletidus Hunt (the Packers primary six man defensive line rotation is DEs R-Kal Truluck, KGB, and Aaron Kampman and DT Jackson, Jenkins, and Hunt). Unfortunately, neither Truluck or Kampman have made many plays, but overall the group is playing as well as they have all season. There have been few plays as sweet in the NFL this season as the TD pass where WR Donald Driver quickly grabs the ball out of the air for the TD pass. RB Tony Fisher can often be confused with Green (similar number and their styles of running are very similar) but the Packers rarely used Fisher in the second half (probably due to his neck stinger). Ho-hum. Another game winning Favre drive, to set up the field goal by K Ryan Longwell. For the second week in a row, Favre made it look easy. Packers 16, Houston 13.

Packers 34, Minnesota 31. Probably the two most evenly matched teams in the NFL this season,

although when WR Randy Moss was healthy and playing alongside QB Daunte Culpepper (playing at MVP

level this season), Minnesota was the better team. Until Minnesota rallied for two 4th quarter

touchdowns, the Packers defense clearly outplayed Minnesota's defense. What happened in the 4th

quarter? Announcer Moose Johnson was absolutely correct that when Culpepper attacked the middle of

the field, Minnesota's offense made big plays. Minnesota had success all game long with TE Jermaine

Wiggins but it really opened up once WRs Marcus Robinson and especially Nate Burleson started working

the middle of the field. CB Al Harris had his best game of the season and CB Ahmad Carroll was ok

for the first three quarters until Burleson started abusing him in the 4th quarter, but FS Bhawoh Jue

(sub for still injured FS Darren Sharper) and the linebackers (all of them, but especially LB

Hannibal Navies) had a lot of trouble in coverage.

First Quarter: The Packers run defense has been much better since NT Grady Jackson returned from

injury (both espn.com and footballoutsiders.com had articles this week spotlighting his play) but the

improved run defense started the week before his return against Detroit (although Detroit's run

offense is not good). The Packers outstanding run blocking offense line from 2003 returned again

this week, keeping defensive players out of the back field. Minnesota P Darren Bennett was great in

San Diego in the 1990s but he is awful now and helped the Packers with every punt he kicked. Packers

7, Minnesota 7.

Second Quarter: After the Packers scored a touchdown, Minnesota almost answered back with a

touchdown, but as Michael David Smith from footballoutsiders.com noted, Jackson busted the 3rd and 2

rush on the Packers 4 yard line, and Minnesota settled for a field goal. The next Packer touchdown

was one of those drives where it all looked too easy; two big runs for RB Ahman Green with giant

rushing lanes, and a play action TD pass to TE Bubba Franks. QB Brett Favre had 4 TDs and 0 INTs for

the game; it was just one of those games when he looked unstoppable. Packers 24, Minnesota 10.

Third Quarter: The Packers defense needs to force and recover more turnovers. This was another game with no recovered turnovers, and it made the game much closer than it really was. The Packer defense held Minnesota twice on their first two possessions and a long Packer drive ended on a failed 4th down conversion (it was a bad spot on the run by FB Nick Luchey, but the Packers had success rushing off tackle all game and it wasn't clear why they didn't call a run off "TE" Kevin Barry's side one more time). WR Donald Driver's fumble on a successful run after a fake handoff to Green led to a quick Minnesota touchdown that brought Minnesota back to life. The Packers offense can't be expected to have zero turnovers every game, and the defense has to force a turnover or two each game to improve the margin for error. Packers 24, Minnesota 17.

Fourth Quarter: The Packers responded, after a big WR Robert Ferguson kickoff return in the 3rd quarter, with a TD drive to add some cushion. But Minnesota finally figured out how to attack the middle of the field with their wide receivers, jsonline.com had an article this week about how rookie CB Joey Thomas was abused badly in this quarter. Jue broke a route and almost had a big interception, but dropped it, early on Minnesota's 16 play TD drive. If the Packers had this one turnover, the turnover battle is evened for the game and the Packers have clobbered Minnesota. Instead it gave Minnesota another opportunity, and eventually led to a tied score. Both Carroll and Thomas are playing like rookies, but you can see the talent each player possesses. It is a lot to ask of a rookie to step in and play at a high level at any position in the NFL, so both players are playing as well as should be expected of them, however, both players should show improvement as this season progresses. Although Jue has played ok this season, his awful 2003 season still hasn't been forgotten and he still hasn't proven that he is a long term answer for the Packers' secondary. Minnesota's defense looked really frustrated on the Packers last TD drive, and they have to be very frustrated that they couldn't stop the Packers on the last drive that led to the game winning field goal. Sometimes in the same situation, Favre is off his game and forces the game losing interception, but Sunday he was on his game and he found the open receivers. Packers 34, Minnesota 31.

I've been offline for a couple of weeks due to a crashed hard drive. I didn't expect it would take me 3 weeks to fix the problem, but I left it to an unmotivated friend to fix it for me. Lucky for me, it was a bye week and therefore a good time to suffer technical difficulties. FS Darren Sharper was able to heal, and the defense comes back with all its starters for the first time since week 1. There are probably no two teams in the NFL more similar then the Packers and Minnesota (great offense and little defense) but Minnesota's offense slips a lot without WR Randy Moss. Not much has happened for the Packers (other than everyone getting a little healthier) expect the release of S Corey Fuller for about the 15th time in the last two seasons and promising CB Chris Johnson who has missed the last two seasons due to injury.

Packers 28, Washington 14. The Packers controlled the first half, but let it slip away from them in the second half. If Washington avoided the stupid illegal shift that cost them a long TD catch by RB Clinton Portis, then the score was Packers 20, Washington 21 and the game is easily lost. That is life in the NFL; you can outplay your opponent all game, but a big play late in the game can cost you the game.