Wednesday, May 10, 2006
I have had a lot of criticism about the Packers front office this season, but at least it has not been anything like the complete meltdown in Minnesota. They did well in free agency, but trading QB Daunte Culpepper is good news for Packer fans. If all the negative things about Fran Foley are true, Minnesota did very well to get rid of him as soon as possible. Somehow this guy was able to take over their draft (under "near-mutinous conditions") although "the job never was intended to carry significant personnel authority." Minnesota did not have a well regarded draft and as of right now it looks like they reached on their first four picks, especially 2nd round QB Tarvaris Jackson. Now Foley's lawsuit will distract the team for a while longer. Although watching Minnesota struggle is always enjoyable, it's too bad that ex-Badgers Brad Childress and Darrell Bevell are starting out under stressful circumstances.
This is a great article about the Packers first minicamp, because it goes into fantastic detail at several positions. It is good to read that QB Aaron Rodgers is throwing the ball well, but there are a few more very interesting notes.
2nd round pick WR Greg Jennings was off to a good start, which is critical because the Packers depth at receiver is thin and inexperienced.
Offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski gave a very concise definition of zone blocking: "If there's a guy on him, he's blocking him. If no one's on him, he's going to the linebacker. It's not that hard. It's hard to screw that up." The first team offensive line was LT Chad Clifton, 2nd round pick LG Daryn Colledge, C Scott Wells, RG Junius Coston, RT Mark Tauscher; this could very likely be the opening game offensive line. Former line coach Larry Beightol really liked Coston's development as a rookie last season, and Coston's size (316 lbs.) makes him a good fit at the right guard position because that position usually plays over the nose tackle. Ted Thompson traded WR Javon Walker to draft Colledge, so it is no surprise he will get a chance. Wells was solid last season after he replaced the awful LG Adrian Klemm. Clifton / Colledge / Wells / Coston / Tauscher is not 2003's line of Clifton / Wahle / Flanagan / Rivera / Tauscher, but it is probably as good as it will get for the Packers in 2006.
Since LB A.J. Hawk is over 240 lbs., it seemed natural that he would play strong side, but he is playing on the weak side. From that position he can use his speed to pursue and make the tackle. After having an average to small group of linebackers, the Packers would add size to that group by playing 240+ lbs. LBs Ben Taylor or Roy Manning at the strong size, and Hawk at the weak side. Whoever plays on the strong side, that player and Hawk will have to be good in coverage because the Packers linebackers have really struggled in coverage over the last two seasons.
2nd round pick WR Greg Jennings was off to a good start, which is critical because the Packers depth at receiver is thin and inexperienced.
Offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski gave a very concise definition of zone blocking: "If there's a guy on him, he's blocking him. If no one's on him, he's going to the linebacker. It's not that hard. It's hard to screw that up." The first team offensive line was LT Chad Clifton, 2nd round pick LG Daryn Colledge, C Scott Wells, RG Junius Coston, RT Mark Tauscher; this could very likely be the opening game offensive line. Former line coach Larry Beightol really liked Coston's development as a rookie last season, and Coston's size (316 lbs.) makes him a good fit at the right guard position because that position usually plays over the nose tackle. Ted Thompson traded WR Javon Walker to draft Colledge, so it is no surprise he will get a chance. Wells was solid last season after he replaced the awful LG Adrian Klemm. Clifton / Colledge / Wells / Coston / Tauscher is not 2003's line of Clifton / Wahle / Flanagan / Rivera / Tauscher, but it is probably as good as it will get for the Packers in 2006.
Since LB A.J. Hawk is over 240 lbs., it seemed natural that he would play strong side, but he is playing on the weak side. From that position he can use his speed to pursue and make the tackle. After having an average to small group of linebackers, the Packers would add size to that group by playing 240+ lbs. LBs Ben Taylor or Roy Manning at the strong size, and Hawk at the weak side. Whoever plays on the strong side, that player and Hawk will have to be good in coverage because the Packers linebackers have really struggled in coverage over the last two seasons.
Thursday, May 04, 2006
It was a little surprising that the Packers released LB Robert Thomas. On last season's team, only LB Nick Barnett showed more speed than Thomas, and Thomas seemed like a good candidate for weak side linebacker. But the Packers have a lot of candidates competing to start alongside LB A.J. Hawk and Barnett (LB Abdul Hodge is a tentative front runner) so it doesn't hurt at all to release Thomas. At the bottom of the article, it mentions that the Packers saved salary cap room when they traded WR Javon Walker too. The Packers are padding their NFL lead for the most unused salary cap room.
The Packers also signed a few more undrafted free agents. None of them really fills a need and all appear to be signed to add depth during minicamps and training camps. Sometimes these guys stick with the team, such as LB Roy Manning did last season, but they are all longshots.
The Packers also signed a few more undrafted free agents. None of them really fills a need and all appear to be signed to add depth during minicamps and training camps. Sometimes these guys stick with the team, such as LB Roy Manning did last season, but they are all longshots.
Monday, May 01, 2006
It looks like WR Donald Driver has no interest in demanding a trade. His comments in the AP article seem to end any speculation that Driver wants out. He is underpaid based on his production so it wasn't unbelievable that he would want a new contract.
Trading away Pro Bowl WR Javon Walker is the top story with the Packers 2006 draft. Teams do not improve when they let Pro Bowl talent leave in the prime of their career. Unless you draft a Pro Bowl performer with that 2nd round pick. The Packers have not improved themselves by letting Pro Bowl (plus alternates) CB Mike McKenzie, OG Mike Wahle, OG Marco Rivera, and FS Darren Sharper leave town.
You never know how players will turn out, but GM Ted Thompson did draft players at the positions that desperately needed help and depth. LBs Nick Barnett, Na'il Diggs, and Hannibal Navies were very good in 2003, but injuries in 2004 derailed Diggs and Navies' careers and the Packers started 6 different linebackers in 2005. 3 of those 6 linebackers are not available in 2006 (Diggs to Carolina, LB Paris Lenon to Detroit, and LB Brady Poppinga might not be available depending on his rehab from a knee injury). As a general rule, NFL teams should not expect their rookies to start, but 1st round pick LB A.J. Hawk is almost guaranteed a starting job and 3rd round pick LB Abdul Hodge could start by week 1 too. Hawk was almost universally regarded as the best linebacker in the draft. Hawk's talent, college accomplishments, and the Packers great need at the position made it almost impossible to pass him up. Hodge was very well regarded too, but he slipped from a projected 2nd round pick into the early 3rd round. If Hodge starts, it is likely that Hodge would play in the middle, with Hawk at the strong side over the tight end and Barnett at weak side. More likely the Packers will start Barnett in the middle, Hawk at strong side, and LB Robert Thomas at weak side.
With the loss of three starting offensive lineman in the last two years (C Mike Flanagan, Rivera, and Wahle) the Packers had to add more depth after Thompson's free agent replacements for Rivera and Wahle (OGs Adrian Klemm and Matt O'Dwyer) bombed in 2005. 2nd round pick OT Daryn Colledge appears to be type of offensive lineman that the Packers' new coaches want. ESPN's Mark Schlereth said Colledge was a great technician. Mel Kiper said Colledge was a great pass blocker, but he called him a project because he isn't a good run blocker. Depending on how well he plays in the first two minicamps, Colledge could easily be penciled in as the starting left guard. 3rd round G Jason Spitz is a little more surprising because it wouldn't seem likely that the Packers want big (313 lbs.) guards or centers for their new zone blocking scheme. Maybe Spitz is the ideal size the Packers want for a right guard over the nose tackle? Maybe neither Colledge or Spitz has a chance at starting in 2006 because 2nd year players G Junius Coston and C Chris White will step forward in minicamps and claim starting spots. T Tony Moll was drafted in the 5th round and sounds like an ideal sleeper candidate for a zone blocking team because he used to play tight end. Overall, the Packers really needed the depth at offensive line and drafting three offensive lineman really helps.
The Packers needed extra help at wide receiver with the ill-advised trade of Walker and the release of WR Terrence Murphy due to his career ending neck injury in 2005. Mel Kiper said 2nd round WR Greg Jennings was his mid-major sleeper pick. Unfortunately Jennings will not help QB Brett Favre in 2006 anywhere near as much as Walker or a healthy Murphy would have helped. Jennings was a surprising pick because he is only 5'11" and Mike McCarthy has stated his preference for taller wide receivers like resigned WR Rod Gardner and free agent WR Marc Boerigter. 4th round pick WR Cory Rodgers is only 6'0" and is about the same size as WR Donald Driver. The Packers needed depth at the position, but they didn't seem to draft players that the coaches prefer.
Although 6'0" is short or average for a NFL wide receiver, 4th round pick CB Will Blackmon is tall for a NFL cornerback at 6'0". Football Outsiders had a great article about when NFL starters are drafted. Positions like quarterback, defensive and offensive tackle, No. 1 wide receiver, running backs, and cornerbacks are usually drafted in the first three rounds. There aren't a lot (if any) cornerbacks starting in the NFL today that were drafted in the 4th round so there isn't a lot of promise that Blackmon will emerge as a starting cornerback either. However, Blackmon provides depth at a position that could need it in 2007. If CB Charles Woodson is only in Green Bay for one season to reestablish himself (his contract likely has few guarantees after 2006 and may only be intended for one season), then the Packers are looking at starting CBs Al Harris and Ahmad Carroll and a bunch of fringe players like CB Mike Hawkins behind them. If Blackmon can develop into a quality cornerback in time for 2007, he might will be needed next season.
There are only two quarterbacks on the roster so drafting 5th round QB Ingle Martin makes sense. The two most important factors in evaluating a college quarterback is how many games he started and his completion percentage. Martin started every game while he was at Furman and completed over 61% of his passes. Unfortunately he played against Division I-AA competition so it is hard to evaluate him. Martin was at Florida, but transferred to Furman after it became obvious he wouldn't start at Florida. As a bonus, Martin was a first team all Division I-AA punter and would be a unique challenger to disappointing P B.J. Sander.
The same article by Football Outsiders that charted the value of drafting a cornerback early if you want a starter said that there isn't much difference between a 6th or 7th round pick and an undrafted free agent. These players usually move around the league a lot and if they do catch fire and become a starter, it is just as likely they start for their 2nd or 3rd team as the team that originally drafted them. That being said, there shouldn't be great expectations that DT Johnny Jolly, S Tyrone Culver, or DE Dave Tollefson will become the next RT Mark Tauscher. All three players were drafted at positions where the Packers have some depth and it is possible all of them are released before the start of the season. I really expected the Packers to draft at least one kicker to challenge K Billy Cundiff in the 7th round, but there are already two other kickers on the roster to challenge Cundiff and apparently Thompson thinks that is enough.
You never know how players will turn out, but GM Ted Thompson did draft players at the positions that desperately needed help and depth. LBs Nick Barnett, Na'il Diggs, and Hannibal Navies were very good in 2003, but injuries in 2004 derailed Diggs and Navies' careers and the Packers started 6 different linebackers in 2005. 3 of those 6 linebackers are not available in 2006 (Diggs to Carolina, LB Paris Lenon to Detroit, and LB Brady Poppinga might not be available depending on his rehab from a knee injury). As a general rule, NFL teams should not expect their rookies to start, but 1st round pick LB A.J. Hawk is almost guaranteed a starting job and 3rd round pick LB Abdul Hodge could start by week 1 too. Hawk was almost universally regarded as the best linebacker in the draft. Hawk's talent, college accomplishments, and the Packers great need at the position made it almost impossible to pass him up. Hodge was very well regarded too, but he slipped from a projected 2nd round pick into the early 3rd round. If Hodge starts, it is likely that Hodge would play in the middle, with Hawk at the strong side over the tight end and Barnett at weak side. More likely the Packers will start Barnett in the middle, Hawk at strong side, and LB Robert Thomas at weak side.
With the loss of three starting offensive lineman in the last two years (C Mike Flanagan, Rivera, and Wahle) the Packers had to add more depth after Thompson's free agent replacements for Rivera and Wahle (OGs Adrian Klemm and Matt O'Dwyer) bombed in 2005. 2nd round pick OT Daryn Colledge appears to be type of offensive lineman that the Packers' new coaches want. ESPN's Mark Schlereth said Colledge was a great technician. Mel Kiper said Colledge was a great pass blocker, but he called him a project because he isn't a good run blocker. Depending on how well he plays in the first two minicamps, Colledge could easily be penciled in as the starting left guard. 3rd round G Jason Spitz is a little more surprising because it wouldn't seem likely that the Packers want big (313 lbs.) guards or centers for their new zone blocking scheme. Maybe Spitz is the ideal size the Packers want for a right guard over the nose tackle? Maybe neither Colledge or Spitz has a chance at starting in 2006 because 2nd year players G Junius Coston and C Chris White will step forward in minicamps and claim starting spots. T Tony Moll was drafted in the 5th round and sounds like an ideal sleeper candidate for a zone blocking team because he used to play tight end. Overall, the Packers really needed the depth at offensive line and drafting three offensive lineman really helps.
The Packers needed extra help at wide receiver with the ill-advised trade of Walker and the release of WR Terrence Murphy due to his career ending neck injury in 2005. Mel Kiper said 2nd round WR Greg Jennings was his mid-major sleeper pick. Unfortunately Jennings will not help QB Brett Favre in 2006 anywhere near as much as Walker or a healthy Murphy would have helped. Jennings was a surprising pick because he is only 5'11" and Mike McCarthy has stated his preference for taller wide receivers like resigned WR Rod Gardner and free agent WR Marc Boerigter. 4th round pick WR Cory Rodgers is only 6'0" and is about the same size as WR Donald Driver. The Packers needed depth at the position, but they didn't seem to draft players that the coaches prefer.
Although 6'0" is short or average for a NFL wide receiver, 4th round pick CB Will Blackmon is tall for a NFL cornerback at 6'0". Football Outsiders had a great article about when NFL starters are drafted. Positions like quarterback, defensive and offensive tackle, No. 1 wide receiver, running backs, and cornerbacks are usually drafted in the first three rounds. There aren't a lot (if any) cornerbacks starting in the NFL today that were drafted in the 4th round so there isn't a lot of promise that Blackmon will emerge as a starting cornerback either. However, Blackmon provides depth at a position that could need it in 2007. If CB Charles Woodson is only in Green Bay for one season to reestablish himself (his contract likely has few guarantees after 2006 and may only be intended for one season), then the Packers are looking at starting CBs Al Harris and Ahmad Carroll and a bunch of fringe players like CB Mike Hawkins behind them. If Blackmon can develop into a quality cornerback in time for 2007, he might will be needed next season.
There are only two quarterbacks on the roster so drafting 5th round QB Ingle Martin makes sense. The two most important factors in evaluating a college quarterback is how many games he started and his completion percentage. Martin started every game while he was at Furman and completed over 61% of his passes. Unfortunately he played against Division I-AA competition so it is hard to evaluate him. Martin was at Florida, but transferred to Furman after it became obvious he wouldn't start at Florida. As a bonus, Martin was a first team all Division I-AA punter and would be a unique challenger to disappointing P B.J. Sander.
The same article by Football Outsiders that charted the value of drafting a cornerback early if you want a starter said that there isn't much difference between a 6th or 7th round pick and an undrafted free agent. These players usually move around the league a lot and if they do catch fire and become a starter, it is just as likely they start for their 2nd or 3rd team as the team that originally drafted them. That being said, there shouldn't be great expectations that DT Johnny Jolly, S Tyrone Culver, or DE Dave Tollefson will become the next RT Mark Tauscher. All three players were drafted at positions where the Packers have some depth and it is possible all of them are released before the start of the season. I really expected the Packers to draft at least one kicker to challenge K Billy Cundiff in the 7th round, but there are already two other kickers on the roster to challenge Cundiff and apparently Thompson thinks that is enough.
Friday, April 28, 2006
Two bits of good news in this article. It appears unlikely that the Packers will trade WR Javon Walker. The bottom line is that the Packers wouldn't receive equal value in return, which Tom Silverstein believes the Packers want a 1st round pick. The Packers control Walker for two more seasons. They should see if Walker can return to 2004 form and help QB Brett Favre in what is likely his final season, and then trade Walker this time next season if there are still problems when his trade value should be high. It also revealed why DT Kenderick Allen was released by the NY Giants; Tom Coughlin didn't like his commitment. This could be a problem, but Coughlin is one of the strictest coaches in the NFL, so Allen didn't have to do much to get in Coughlin's doghouse. It sounds like Coughlin's lack of patience is the Packers gain.
Thursday, April 27, 2006
Seriously? Denver and Miami are interested in WR Javon Walker and Ted Thompson is considering it. How many Pro Bowl players has Thompson ran out of Green Bay in the past two seasons? Thompson ran out Sharper, Rivera, and Wahle (alternate) in 2005, but he hadn't been able to run any out in 2006 (despite his efforts to encourage Favre's retirement). He could have let RB Ahman Green leave, but he's resigned so it is too late for that. So now it is on the disgruntled Walker. There is no way the Packers receive equal compensation for Walker because of his trade demands and his injured knee. Favre had one of his worst seasons in 2005 because the offensive line struggled and Favre didn't have enough quality receivers. Trading Walker is asking for a repeat of 2005.
Finally the Packers can report that QB Brett Favre is returning next season. The timing is a little odd as Bob Wolfley suggests, I expected that Favre would announce his return after the NFL draft, but it seemed likely that Favre would return after the stories about how bored Favre was on his farm in Mississippi. What are the Packers going to do about the offensive line?
The Packers did make a nice move the same day they overpaid for CB Charles Woodson and signed DT Kenderick Allen. The Packers press release has all the good reasons why the Packers signed the big tackle, but none of the reasons why NY released a good young defensive tackle. The best guess why he was released was he was overweight, but NY Giants fans don't know why he was released either. Allen will probably backup DT Ryan Pickett, but it is likely they play together on obvious running downs. Allen is already the best backup nose tackle the Packers have had on the roster in many seasons. This quiet signing the same day as Woodson might be a better one.
Nobody in football, except Ted Thompson, thinks CB Charles Woodson can play cornerback anymore. Kansas City's head coach Herm Edwards was quoted earlier this offseason saying that he believes Woodson can only "if his mind is right." No team in the NFL pursued Woodson with the intention of playing him at cornerback.
There is a big $52 million figure attached to this contract, but it is likely that this is a big one year, $10.5 million contract with no guarantees after this season. Woodson's agent wouldn't discuss how much was guaranteed, which would seem to confirm that. The Packers have a lot of 2006 cap room to offer Woodson, and Woodson has no other suitors except Tampa Bay which wants him to play safety. Did the Packers have to pay him $10.5 million in any circumstance? Was any team in the NFL willing to pay anywhere near what Woodson played for ($10 million) in Oakland in 2005?
Where does Woodson play with the Packers? He is probably guaranteed a starting cornerback position. Signing another cornerback is not a bad idea. With Woodson starting, CB Ahmad Carroll is the 3rd cornerback, but he will be on the field in the nickel package at least 50% of the time. If Woodson can't play cornerback and is forced to play safety, then he would have to take the place of Thompson's prized free agent signing S Marquand Manuel. Maybe S Nick Collins would move to cornerback? Would any reporter ask Thompson to explain why the Packers might have two high priced mediocre safeties (Woodson and Manuel) one season after Thompson forced Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper to Minnesota over a relatively small paycut?
Woodson can definitely help with kick or punt returns, assuming he is healthy to play 16 games next season. He is a high priced talent (or maybe just high priced) who is better suited to play a different position because of frequent injuries over the past four seasons. He probably chose Green Bay because it was his only choice willing to pay him what he felt he deserved and play him at cornerback. He could help the team out next season, but there is a lot of risk that this will be a bust.
There is a big $52 million figure attached to this contract, but it is likely that this is a big one year, $10.5 million contract with no guarantees after this season. Woodson's agent wouldn't discuss how much was guaranteed, which would seem to confirm that. The Packers have a lot of 2006 cap room to offer Woodson, and Woodson has no other suitors except Tampa Bay which wants him to play safety. Did the Packers have to pay him $10.5 million in any circumstance? Was any team in the NFL willing to pay anywhere near what Woodson played for ($10 million) in Oakland in 2005?
Where does Woodson play with the Packers? He is probably guaranteed a starting cornerback position. Signing another cornerback is not a bad idea. With Woodson starting, CB Ahmad Carroll is the 3rd cornerback, but he will be on the field in the nickel package at least 50% of the time. If Woodson can't play cornerback and is forced to play safety, then he would have to take the place of Thompson's prized free agent signing S Marquand Manuel. Maybe S Nick Collins would move to cornerback? Would any reporter ask Thompson to explain why the Packers might have two high priced mediocre safeties (Woodson and Manuel) one season after Thompson forced Pro Bowl S Darren Sharper to Minnesota over a relatively small paycut?
Woodson can definitely help with kick or punt returns, assuming he is healthy to play 16 games next season. He is a high priced talent (or maybe just high priced) who is better suited to play a different position because of frequent injuries over the past four seasons. He probably chose Green Bay because it was his only choice willing to pay him what he felt he deserved and play him at cornerback. He could help the team out next season, but there is a lot of risk that this will be a bust.
Monday, April 24, 2006
GM Ted Thompson won't rule out drafting a quarterback. GMs are required to mislead as much as possible before the draft. Maybe if QB Aaron Rodgers was drafted by Mike Sherman before Thompson was hired, it would be possible that Thompson would consider drafting a quarterback. But it is impossible that Thompson would throw his own choice under the wheels without even giving him a chance to start. The only concern is that Thompson has had a number of bad ideas as GM and drafting another 1st round quarterback to create competition might be another one of them.
Football Outsiders had an article posted in March and the author concluded that QBs Matt Leinert, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler should all have some success in the NFL. The reason all three would have success is that "the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started." Rodgers didn't have a huge number of starts at California (22), but that is deceiving because he only played 2 seasons at Cal and he started every game except his first game in a Bears uniform. His completion percentage in his 2 seasons was 61.6 and 66.1. It would appear that Rodgers has just as much chance to succeed as Leinert, Young, or Cutler. The biggest concerns with Rodgers is that he doesn't have the physical makeup scouts prefer for a quarterback and that he is very comparable to a former Packers bust QB Rich Campbell (1st round selection, high completion percentage, played at California). The Rich Campbell similarities alone would have made me pass on drafting him, but Thompson was playing linebacker for Houston back then and probably not paying attention to the draft decisions of Bart Starr.
The worst part of selecting a quarterback is that it appears that QB Brett Favre is waiting until after the draft to see if the Packers make any improvement to the offense, and selecting another quarterback in the 1st round would not be what Favre had in mind.
It is no surprise that LB Lavar Arrington would choose the NY Giants over the Packers. With so much unknown about the Packers at this point (Will Favre return? Will Thompson ever make the right decisions in free agency? Will the team have to completely rebuild after 2006?), it made little sense to sign Arrington. It is amazing what a difference a season makes; if Arrington was available this time last season, then signing him would have been a great move to upgrade from LB Hannibal Navies.
Pat Kirwan is one of the best football writers on the web and he has updated his mock draft. I don't think anybody gets these mock drafts right, but Kirwan has a lot of friends in the NFL that he talks to so his evaluations of players is always interesting. He thinks the Packers will draft two linebackers; LB A.J. Hawk and LB Roger McIntosh. Hawk has been talked about as a top 10 pick all offseason and nothing from his workouts has moved him down. McIntosh has all the physical abilities of a top linebacker, but he makes mistakes in the open field and can overpursue. If the Packers do address their problems at linebacker early, then the most interesting time for the Packers will be the mid-rounds (3 through 5) when the Packers will have to address the offensive line. If the Packers are serious about a shift to a zone blocking scheme with lighter and more agile offensive lineman, then the mid-rounds are when those players should be drafted. Most of the offensive lineman projected in the first 2 rounds are all big 300 lb. tackles, which shouldn't be the type of player the Packers are interested in. Any offensive lineman who is drafted in rounds 3-5 and can play guard will be immediately considered a candidate to start in 2006.
Football Outsiders had an article posted in March and the author concluded that QBs Matt Leinert, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler should all have some success in the NFL. The reason all three would have success is that "the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started." Rodgers didn't have a huge number of starts at California (22), but that is deceiving because he only played 2 seasons at Cal and he started every game except his first game in a Bears uniform. His completion percentage in his 2 seasons was 61.6 and 66.1. It would appear that Rodgers has just as much chance to succeed as Leinert, Young, or Cutler. The biggest concerns with Rodgers is that he doesn't have the physical makeup scouts prefer for a quarterback and that he is very comparable to a former Packers bust QB Rich Campbell (1st round selection, high completion percentage, played at California). The Rich Campbell similarities alone would have made me pass on drafting him, but Thompson was playing linebacker for Houston back then and probably not paying attention to the draft decisions of Bart Starr.
The worst part of selecting a quarterback is that it appears that QB Brett Favre is waiting until after the draft to see if the Packers make any improvement to the offense, and selecting another quarterback in the 1st round would not be what Favre had in mind.
It is no surprise that LB Lavar Arrington would choose the NY Giants over the Packers. With so much unknown about the Packers at this point (Will Favre return? Will Thompson ever make the right decisions in free agency? Will the team have to completely rebuild after 2006?), it made little sense to sign Arrington. It is amazing what a difference a season makes; if Arrington was available this time last season, then signing him would have been a great move to upgrade from LB Hannibal Navies.
Pat Kirwan is one of the best football writers on the web and he has updated his mock draft. I don't think anybody gets these mock drafts right, but Kirwan has a lot of friends in the NFL that he talks to so his evaluations of players is always interesting. He thinks the Packers will draft two linebackers; LB A.J. Hawk and LB Roger McIntosh. Hawk has been talked about as a top 10 pick all offseason and nothing from his workouts has moved him down. McIntosh has all the physical abilities of a top linebacker, but he makes mistakes in the open field and can overpursue. If the Packers do address their problems at linebacker early, then the most interesting time for the Packers will be the mid-rounds (3 through 5) when the Packers will have to address the offensive line. If the Packers are serious about a shift to a zone blocking scheme with lighter and more agile offensive lineman, then the mid-rounds are when those players should be drafted. Most of the offensive lineman projected in the first 2 rounds are all big 300 lb. tackles, which shouldn't be the type of player the Packers are interested in. Any offensive lineman who is drafted in rounds 3-5 and can play guard will be immediately considered a candidate to start in 2006.
Friday, April 21, 2006
Awful. It is no one's fault but the Packers are going to release 2005 2nd round pick WR Terrence Murphy. Not only is this a lost 2nd round pick, but the Packers have depth issues at wide receiver so long as WR Javon Walker is demanding a trade. This will have to be another position that the Packers must address at some point in the draft.
Watching more of the ESPN draft special, Mel Kiper said that DE Mario Williams will be drafted by someone before the Packers pick 5th. It would seem unlikely that the Packers would trade up for any player this season. At this point, it would seem likely that QB Matt Leinert will fall to the Packers, and then the Packers might trade down to let another team draft Leinert. Of course, no one knows what will happen, maybe not even GM Ted Thompson, until the Packers are on the clock on April 29th. There is no clear indication who New Orleans, Tennessee, or the NY Jets will draft before the Packers. It wouldn't be surprising to see any of those teams trade down either. With so many good players available at the 5th pick, the Packers will probably have no problem selecting a player when their time comes, but they will probably spend the full 15 minutes available to them fielding trade proposals depending on who falls to the 5th pick.
Watching more of the ESPN draft special, Mel Kiper said that DE Mario Williams will be drafted by someone before the Packers pick 5th. It would seem unlikely that the Packers would trade up for any player this season. At this point, it would seem likely that QB Matt Leinert will fall to the Packers, and then the Packers might trade down to let another team draft Leinert. Of course, no one knows what will happen, maybe not even GM Ted Thompson, until the Packers are on the clock on April 29th. There is no clear indication who New Orleans, Tennessee, or the NY Jets will draft before the Packers. It wouldn't be surprising to see any of those teams trade down either. With so many good players available at the 5th pick, the Packers will probably have no problem selecting a player when their time comes, but they will probably spend the full 15 minutes available to them fielding trade proposals depending on who falls to the 5th pick.
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Watching ESPN's NFL Draft special this week, Chris Mortenson reported that the Packers made an offer to CB Charles Woodson but Woodson rejected it because it was for too little money. Further, Mortenson said that only two teams have shown any interest in Woodson; the Packers and Tampa Bay who want Woodson to play safety.
Dear Ted Thompson, When your team is the only team in the NFL that seriously believes that Woodson can still play cornerback, please take the suggestion to heart. Love, Packer fans. Do any Packer fans believe Woodson would be willing to play for the Packers other than for a big paycheck?
On ESPN's NFL Draft special, a lot of time was spent discussing DE Mario Williams, who is projected on most mock drafts to be the Packers selection. It can't be a bad idea to select a player who is often compared to DE Julius Peppers. If Williams is Julius Peppers 2.0 and KGB can play strong side linebacker, that would be a major upgrade on defense. The only problem with it is that the Packers have to address their problems at linebacker and offensive line. There is no doubt that Williams has great talent, but there have been a number of "great" defensive ends in recent years like Andre Wadsworth and Jamal Reynolds who were complete busts. If the Packers draft Williams, they have to do something to improve the offensive line and the linebacker positions on the 1st day of the draft too.
Dear Ted Thompson, When your team is the only team in the NFL that seriously believes that Woodson can still play cornerback, please take the suggestion to heart. Love, Packer fans. Do any Packer fans believe Woodson would be willing to play for the Packers other than for a big paycheck?
On ESPN's NFL Draft special, a lot of time was spent discussing DE Mario Williams, who is projected on most mock drafts to be the Packers selection. It can't be a bad idea to select a player who is often compared to DE Julius Peppers. If Williams is Julius Peppers 2.0 and KGB can play strong side linebacker, that would be a major upgrade on defense. The only problem with it is that the Packers have to address their problems at linebacker and offensive line. There is no doubt that Williams has great talent, but there have been a number of "great" defensive ends in recent years like Andre Wadsworth and Jamal Reynolds who were complete busts. If the Packers draft Williams, they have to do something to improve the offensive line and the linebacker positions on the 1st day of the draft too.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Of all the coverage regarding QB Brett Favre, the Onion might have the most accurate story. Although I'm not optimistic that G Marco Rivera and C Mike Flanagan have promising futures in the NFL at this stage in their careers (letting G Mike Wahle was a huge mistake unless the salary cap (Wahle had a monster 2005 cap number that was designed to make him a free agent) truly prevented them from resigning him), Favre cannot be happy that the Packers have let the offense slip so much in the last two seasons. John Madden thinks Favre wants to be traded, but I think it is more likely he wants to see what the Packers do in the draft. If Ted Thompson runs the draft as badly as he has run this offseason so far, then Favre will probably want to be traded. The bad news for Favre is that his cap number might prevent any trade.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
Aargh!!! The Packers have a real need at linebacker, but Arrington only had 47 tackles, no interceptions, and no sacks last season. He fought with his coaches, he filed a grievance against his team regarding his contract, and he didn't even start last season for Washington. He may still be a great player, but after last season he looks like a backup linebacker who wants to be the highest paid linebacker in the NFL. Bonus: Arrington and CB Charles Woodson both use the Postons as their agents, so the Packers can overpay for two players at once!
On the flip side, the Packers have the money to spend and there are few suitors for either Woodson or Arrington. If both players are willing to earn a starting position in camp, willing to accept a possible backup position, and willing to play on a one year contract, then signing both or either player would help the Packers in 2006. It would seem unlikely that either player would accept those terms.
It is sickening to think that the Packers saved their money and salary cap room by not resigning Gs Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle in 2005 only to take a chance on signing Woodson and/or Arrington in 2006. What a wasted opportunity.
On the flip side, the Packers have the money to spend and there are few suitors for either Woodson or Arrington. If both players are willing to earn a starting position in camp, willing to accept a possible backup position, and willing to play on a one year contract, then signing both or either player would help the Packers in 2006. It would seem unlikely that either player would accept those terms.
It is sickening to think that the Packers saved their money and salary cap room by not resigning Gs Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle in 2005 only to take a chance on signing Woodson and/or Arrington in 2006. What a wasted opportunity.
Saturday, April 01, 2006
It looks like QB Brett Favre isn't optimistic about next season. Firing a previously successful coach and hiring an underachieving offensive coordinator to replace him isn't too promising. The Packers had as much salary cap room as Minnesota this offseason, but while Minnesota signed a top free agent running back (RB Chester Taylor) and a top free agent offensive lineman (G Steve Hutchinson), the Packers have let their second leading receiver (WR Antonio Chatman) and Favre's long time center (C Mike Flanagan) leave in free agency. The only signing so far on offense is a receiver who had 8 catches over the last 2 seasons. It looks like Favre wants to see the final makeup of the team after the NFL draft. It sounds like GM Ted Thompson will give Favre time and keep pushing the $3 million roster bonus back until Favre decides. How unpopular will Thompson be in Green Bay if Favre retires early because he thinks the team Thompson built doesn't have a chance to win?
Thursday, March 30, 2006
Idiot. Head coach Baldrick has another cunning new plan with "more core base concepts." Baldrick "said his belief is that reverting to an offense that relies heavily on the running game, throws often to the backs and uses big receivers running slants and shallow crossing patterns will best fit Favre’s talents." It sounds an awful lot like the offense Mike Holmgren ran in the mid-90s. Favre had some great seasons then, but he was happy when Ray Rhodes and later Mike Sherman allowed him to throw deep. The deep pass is what Baldrick would call a "core base concept" of Favre's game. Favre will not want to play the style of offense that McCarthy is suggesting.
The reality is that the Packers have reverted to an offense with three running backs (Gado, Green, and Davenport) all returning after season-ending leg injuries, that has no center or guards penciled in as starters, and three offensive tackles (Clifton, Tauscher, and Barry) who have all been promised starting jobs. Teams that use a zone blocking offensive scheme (Atlanta, Denver) usually run the ball well and have poor pass protection. Plus, none of the three offensive tackles fit the prototype of a zone blocking lineman. That does not sound like a team ready to rely on the running game. The team currently has three big receivers on the roster, but two of them are players no one else wanted (Gardner and Boehriger) and another is a player who has promised to never again play for the Packers (Walker). The team's best receiver (Driver) is not a big receiver. McCarthy's style of offense will not work with Favre and this current roster.
Why would Favre want to play for this mess of a roster with a coach that doesn't realize his team doesn't have the personnel to play McCarthy's preferred style of football? And now the Packers are trying to force Favre into a decision because they don't want to pay a $3 million roster bonus if they don't have to. Favre does have a big salary cap number and it might be a convenient excuse to shove him out the door.
With the money saved from Favre's roster bonus, they could sign CB Charles Woodson. What a stupid idea. He's 29 years old (cornerbacks don't play well past age 30), he's finished the last two seasons injured, he's fought with his coach, and he got arrested in 2004. Kansas City coach Herm Edwards was quoted as saying that Woodson might be able to play cornerback, but he might have to play safety. The Packers would pay top cornerback money to a safety who is a clubhouse cancer and couldn't beat out any of the projected starting defensive backs. Just say no.
The reality is that the Packers have reverted to an offense with three running backs (Gado, Green, and Davenport) all returning after season-ending leg injuries, that has no center or guards penciled in as starters, and three offensive tackles (Clifton, Tauscher, and Barry) who have all been promised starting jobs. Teams that use a zone blocking offensive scheme (Atlanta, Denver) usually run the ball well and have poor pass protection. Plus, none of the three offensive tackles fit the prototype of a zone blocking lineman. That does not sound like a team ready to rely on the running game. The team currently has three big receivers on the roster, but two of them are players no one else wanted (Gardner and Boehriger) and another is a player who has promised to never again play for the Packers (Walker). The team's best receiver (Driver) is not a big receiver. McCarthy's style of offense will not work with Favre and this current roster.
Why would Favre want to play for this mess of a roster with a coach that doesn't realize his team doesn't have the personnel to play McCarthy's preferred style of football? And now the Packers are trying to force Favre into a decision because they don't want to pay a $3 million roster bonus if they don't have to. Favre does have a big salary cap number and it might be a convenient excuse to shove him out the door.
With the money saved from Favre's roster bonus, they could sign CB Charles Woodson. What a stupid idea. He's 29 years old (cornerbacks don't play well past age 30), he's finished the last two seasons injured, he's fought with his coach, and he got arrested in 2004. Kansas City coach Herm Edwards was quoted as saying that Woodson might be able to play cornerback, but he might have to play safety. The Packers would pay top cornerback money to a safety who is a clubhouse cancer and couldn't beat out any of the projected starting defensive backs. Just say no.
Monday, March 27, 2006
Yawn. Coach Baldrick's cunning new plan this season is to load the team with tall wide receivers, the faster the better. Out goes WR Antonio Chatman, 2nd on the team in receptions. Staying is headcase WR Rod Gardner. Now enters WR Marc Boerigter.
Should Boerigter even being playing in the NFL? In 2005, he played with a top 5 quarterback and managed a whopping 8 receptions. Kansas City didn't have great depth at the position either. Their no. 2 WR Samie Parker only has 45 receptions for his career. The only bright side is that Boerigter might have slipped under the radar because he had an ACL tear in 2004 and players usually don't return to full strength until their 2nd season back (so don't be surprised if WR Javon Walker doesn't play in 2006 like he did in 2004). It is possible that 2005 was Boerigter's recovery season and now he is fully healthy in 2006.
Should Boerigter even being playing in the NFL? In 2005, he played with a top 5 quarterback and managed a whopping 8 receptions. Kansas City didn't have great depth at the position either. Their no. 2 WR Samie Parker only has 45 receptions for his career. The only bright side is that Boerigter might have slipped under the radar because he had an ACL tear in 2004 and players usually don't return to full strength until their 2nd season back (so don't be surprised if WR Javon Walker doesn't play in 2006 like he did in 2004). It is possible that 2005 was Boerigter's recovery season and now he is fully healthy in 2006.
Sunday, March 26, 2006
The Packers finally signed LB Ben Taylor. There was so little interest in Taylor that the Packers spoke with him right at the start of free agency, and no one else did since, except his ex-team Cleveland. No one appeared interested in this guy, but he might actually start with the Packers at strong side linebacker. Bonus trivia: Taylor was one of the last players left in Cleveland from the disasterous drafts of Butch Davis in 2001-2004. GM Ted Thompson said Taylor is "a football guy" who "played a lot of football in Cleveland." Sounds great.
Then the Packers signed K Billy Cundiff. K Ryan Longwell's greatest strength during his good seasons (aka pre-2005) was that he was remarkably consistant. Cundiff is the opposite. In a 2003 Loser League Recap at Football Outsiders, they pointed out how Cundiff had an awful week 1 for Dallas, missing a field goal and an extra point, but then rebounded in week 2 to hit 7 field goals. One coach said Cundiff has a strong leg for kickoffs, which is an area the Packers really need to improve on. Dallas let him go because of injury, so if he is healthy he may be as good or even a slight improvement over Longwell. Bob McGinn said that Cundiff won't be the last kicker the Packers sign.
The Packers need to move on from the injury filled seasons with RB Najeh Davenport. Instead they resign the veteran backup. I have nothing against Davenport (despite his bizarre dorm room incident as a rookie) because he has great talent and seemed to enjoy playing in Green Bay. But he can't stay healthy, and it is likely that he never will stay healthy. It would have been best for both parties to move on, but instead they will try try again.
Wow. C Mike Flanagan was given a $3 million signing bonus by Houston. Flanagan didn't play well last season. At least 1 or 2 plays a game, Flanagan would be overpowered and the play would collapse because of the defensive pressure. Adding the major injuries he has faced with his declining play in 2005, it seemed reasonable to let him go or bring him back on a small contract. However, Houston had the worst offensive line in the NFL last season and had to do something. Flanagan is a lighter offensive lineman with solid foot work who could have benefitted the most from a switch to a zone blocking scheme, but the Packers reasonably didn't want to match Houston's big offer.
The Packers also lost RB Tony Fisher to St. Louis. Fisher doesn't have enough speed to start in the NFL, but he is a good receiver and a good pass blocker. He has value as a 3rd down specialist, but RB Ahman Green might be that same running back in 2006. Green is a good pass receiver and blocker, and he might be just as slow as Fisher after his knee injury. It is possible RB Samkon Gado takes over as starter, while Green is a 3rd down back next season. Why couldn't the Packers have pursued RB Edgerrin James in free agency?
Don't panic. Thompson says "I think we helped ourselves a little bit in free agency." Mike McCarthy went deep into his catch phrases and pulled out "our approach has been consistent" and "we're not taking big chances. We're staying true to our plan." You know, Baldrick had a cunning plan too, and it always seemed to make the situation Blackadder found himself in a lot worse. If you think of them Coach Baldrick and GM Blackadder, then it all makes a lot more sense.
Then the Packers signed K Billy Cundiff. K Ryan Longwell's greatest strength during his good seasons (aka pre-2005) was that he was remarkably consistant. Cundiff is the opposite. In a 2003 Loser League Recap at Football Outsiders, they pointed out how Cundiff had an awful week 1 for Dallas, missing a field goal and an extra point, but then rebounded in week 2 to hit 7 field goals. One coach said Cundiff has a strong leg for kickoffs, which is an area the Packers really need to improve on. Dallas let him go because of injury, so if he is healthy he may be as good or even a slight improvement over Longwell. Bob McGinn said that Cundiff won't be the last kicker the Packers sign.
The Packers need to move on from the injury filled seasons with RB Najeh Davenport. Instead they resign the veteran backup. I have nothing against Davenport (despite his bizarre dorm room incident as a rookie) because he has great talent and seemed to enjoy playing in Green Bay. But he can't stay healthy, and it is likely that he never will stay healthy. It would have been best for both parties to move on, but instead they will try try again.
Wow. C Mike Flanagan was given a $3 million signing bonus by Houston. Flanagan didn't play well last season. At least 1 or 2 plays a game, Flanagan would be overpowered and the play would collapse because of the defensive pressure. Adding the major injuries he has faced with his declining play in 2005, it seemed reasonable to let him go or bring him back on a small contract. However, Houston had the worst offensive line in the NFL last season and had to do something. Flanagan is a lighter offensive lineman with solid foot work who could have benefitted the most from a switch to a zone blocking scheme, but the Packers reasonably didn't want to match Houston's big offer.
The Packers also lost RB Tony Fisher to St. Louis. Fisher doesn't have enough speed to start in the NFL, but he is a good receiver and a good pass blocker. He has value as a 3rd down specialist, but RB Ahman Green might be that same running back in 2006. Green is a good pass receiver and blocker, and he might be just as slow as Fisher after his knee injury. It is possible RB Samkon Gado takes over as starter, while Green is a 3rd down back next season. Why couldn't the Packers have pursued RB Edgerrin James in free agency?
Don't panic. Thompson says "I think we helped ourselves a little bit in free agency." Mike McCarthy went deep into his catch phrases and pulled out "our approach has been consistent" and "we're not taking big chances. We're staying true to our plan." You know, Baldrick had a cunning plan too, and it always seemed to make the situation Blackadder found himself in a lot worse. If you think of them Coach Baldrick and GM Blackadder, then it all makes a lot more sense.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
Great. LB Paris Lenon was not a great player during his time with the Packers, but as the Packers thin linebacker depth chart stood, Lenon would have been considered their 2nd best linebacker way behind LB Nick Barnett. Teams shouldn't spend big in free agency to sign players other teams are not trying too hard to keep; such as the huge $18.5 million guaranteed payday Seattle gave LB Julian Peterson when San Francisco wasn't exactly throwing themselves in front of the train to keep him from leaving town. But teams should be trying hard to resign their own players that they want to keep. Mike McCarthy said. "Hey, that's free agency. You're not going to win 'em all, unfortunately." You haven't won anything this offseason! The only good side to this is that any player Matt Millen wants in Detroit can't be all that great.
The Packers offered ex-Cleveland LB Ben Taylor to fill one starting linebacker position, but then hit him with a low-ball one year offer that didn't get the job done. Maybe you can win that one Mike.
At this point, there is not one big name free agent that the Packers should pursue. LB Lavar Arrington is still available, but that is an ugly battle with the coaches and several lawsuits waiting to happen. It isn't clear how many battles the Packers won in free agency, they won on DT Ryan Pickett and DE Aaron Kampman but who knows how many battles they actually fought and lost.
The biggest signing by a division rival might have happened when Chicago signed QB Brian Griese. Griese is an average QB, but Chicago has been playing some of the league's worst QBs in recent seasons; QB Kyle Orton and QB Craig Krenzel being the worst of the bunch. QB Rex Grossman has his moments, but so far he has been a below average QB, when healthy. Still he looks like QB Peyton Manning after watching several games with Orton starting. Griese should make Chicago better next season.
The Packers offered ex-Cleveland LB Ben Taylor to fill one starting linebacker position, but then hit him with a low-ball one year offer that didn't get the job done. Maybe you can win that one Mike.
At this point, there is not one big name free agent that the Packers should pursue. LB Lavar Arrington is still available, but that is an ugly battle with the coaches and several lawsuits waiting to happen. It isn't clear how many battles the Packers won in free agency, they won on DT Ryan Pickett and DE Aaron Kampman but who knows how many battles they actually fought and lost.
The biggest signing by a division rival might have happened when Chicago signed QB Brian Griese. Griese is an average QB, but Chicago has been playing some of the league's worst QBs in recent seasons; QB Kyle Orton and QB Craig Krenzel being the worst of the bunch. QB Rex Grossman has his moments, but so far he has been a below average QB, when healthy. Still he looks like QB Peyton Manning after watching several games with Orton starting. Griese should make Chicago better next season.
Monday, March 20, 2006
The Packers did resign FB William Henderson. It is a mystery why Minnesota would be interested in Henderson, because the fullback has been the least utilized player in their offense for many seasons. Henderson will contribute in 2006, especially if QB Brett Favre returns, but he will only play a part-time roll along with FB Vonta Leach. Further down in the article, it says something about Mike McCarthy that he prefers tall wide receivers that are head cases (WR Rod Gardner) over short wide receivers who have been useful to the team over the last couple of seasons (WR Antonio Chatman).
Why is the Packers pursuit of K Adam Vinatieri making any news? The Packers might be interested in signing him, but it would be shocking if he had any real interest in signing with them. If Miami is interested in him too, then the Packers would be, at best, a distant third behind Miami and New England. He would help the Packers improve their kicking game from the disasterous 2005 season, but the Packers have to be a longshot to acquire him.
It is a stretch to think that because QB Craig Nall signed with Buffalo, that it means that it is likely Favre will return. Nall probably saw himself behind Favre or QB Aaron Rodgers in either situation, and realized that QB J.P. Losman flopped, QB Kelly Holcomb isn't very good, and he has a better shot in 2006 to start in Buffalo.
Dear GM Ted Thompson, Favre was probably asking you to be aggressive this free agency period to improve the offensive line, something you haven't done. Were you intentionally trying to drive Favre into retirement or is it just incompetance on your part? Love, Packer Fans. P.S. Resigning T Kevin Barry doesn't count, because he doesn't have the ability to play in a zone blocking scheme (he isn't quick enough or have good enough footwork) and you will be releasing him this time next year after you've realized it.
Why is the Packers pursuit of K Adam Vinatieri making any news? The Packers might be interested in signing him, but it would be shocking if he had any real interest in signing with them. If Miami is interested in him too, then the Packers would be, at best, a distant third behind Miami and New England. He would help the Packers improve their kicking game from the disasterous 2005 season, but the Packers have to be a longshot to acquire him.
It is a stretch to think that because QB Craig Nall signed with Buffalo, that it means that it is likely Favre will return. Nall probably saw himself behind Favre or QB Aaron Rodgers in either situation, and realized that QB J.P. Losman flopped, QB Kelly Holcomb isn't very good, and he has a better shot in 2006 to start in Buffalo.
Dear GM Ted Thompson, Favre was probably asking you to be aggressive this free agency period to improve the offensive line, something you haven't done. Were you intentionally trying to drive Favre into retirement or is it just incompetance on your part? Love, Packer Fans. P.S. Resigning T Kevin Barry doesn't count, because he doesn't have the ability to play in a zone blocking scheme (he isn't quick enough or have good enough footwork) and you will be releasing him this time next year after you've realized it.
Friday, March 17, 2006
What are they thinking? Does Mike McCarthy even believe what he is saying? The Packers resigned T Kevin Barry with a 2 year contract and have promised him a legitimate shot at a starting job. Barry is a quality backup right tackle who could probably start for some teams. However, the Packers are switching to a zone blocking system next season and the 330 lbs. lineman was told that "he needs to slim down." The Packers gave Barry a long look at right tackle a couple of seasons ago, with the idea of moving RT Mark Tauscher to right guard or the bench, however Barry didn't come close to beating out Tauscher and found himself on the bench. Barry is a solid backup right tackle, but the Packers' coaches are dreaming if they think he will slim down and develop quick feet work over the summer. If the Packers are serious about switching to a zone blocking scheme, then they will let players like Barry go and start looking for quality college players that fit their new mold for offensive linemen. Instead, they resign 330 lbs. lineman who don't fit the mold and will blame the players for not fitting in with their scheme when it all collapses around them next season.
WR Rod Gardner was resigned in a small, but useful signing. Gardner only played the last couple of weeks, but he did give a legitimate receiving option. Gardner is no more than a number 3 wide receiver, but he does provide some nice depth. Unfortunately, WR Antonio Chatman is looking for a new team, and Chatman is probably better than Gardner. Both players would have a tough time making the opening roster if the top 4 WRs (Walker, Driver, Ferguson, and Murphy) actually show up to play and are all healthy.
The Packers are interested in LB Rocky Boiman. Dear Ted Thompson, this was not the type of free agent that QB Brett Favre wanted you to pursue. Love, Packer Fans. P.S. I am sure Favre is not really excited to return next season when you pursue free agent QB Josh McCown.
WR Rod Gardner was resigned in a small, but useful signing. Gardner only played the last couple of weeks, but he did give a legitimate receiving option. Gardner is no more than a number 3 wide receiver, but he does provide some nice depth. Unfortunately, WR Antonio Chatman is looking for a new team, and Chatman is probably better than Gardner. Both players would have a tough time making the opening roster if the top 4 WRs (Walker, Driver, Ferguson, and Murphy) actually show up to play and are all healthy.
The Packers are interested in LB Rocky Boiman. Dear Ted Thompson, this was not the type of free agent that QB Brett Favre wanted you to pursue. Love, Packer Fans. P.S. I am sure Favre is not really excited to return next season when you pursue free agent QB Josh McCown.
Thursday, March 16, 2006
The Packers signed NT Ryan Pickett and probably waived good bye to NT Grady Jackson. It is better for the long-term to bring in Pickett and replace the aging Jackson. Terms weren't disclosed, but it is probably around the $5 million Seattle guaranteed to DT Rocky Bernard. I compared St. Louis's and the Packers defensive lines last week and it isn't clear that Pickett's performance in 2005 is an upgrade over what Jackson did in 2005. The Packers have spent a lot of money to resign DE Aaron Kampman and sign Pickett but all it has done has maintained an average defensive line. These are not free agent signings that should encourage QB Brett Favre to return for another season with the Packers. Maybe these signings are trying to encourage Favre to retire.
What does Favre mean when he wants to see free agent signings to keep the team competitive? I would assume that Favre is thinking offense first. The only signing there has been RB Ahman Green. That is better than nothing, but Green's best days are probably behind him. There were two top running backs available; RB Edgerrin James and RB Shaun Alexander, and the Packers made no effort to sign either. The Packers made no effort to sign any of the top 3 offensive lineman; T Kevin Shaffer, G Steve Hutchinson, or C LeCharles Bentley. With WR Javon Walker demanding a trade, it wouldn't hurt the Packers to sign a wide receiver, but they made no effort at either WRs Antwaan Randle El or WR David Givens.
What remaining signings could get Favre's attention? The only obvious one is WR Terrell Owens, but there have been no rumors of any interest from the Packers. Plus signing Owens brings with it a new set of problems. There are a couple of big name linebackers available; LB Lavar Arrington and LB Julian Peterson, but they would demand big money and both players have issues with attitude and injuries, respectively. Would Favre care if the Packers signed K Mike Vanderjagt?
Despite the huge cap room this offseason, the Packers have done little in free agency. The two new players; S Marquand Manuel and Pickett don't add much more than S Mark Roman and Jackson provided in 2005. GM Ted Thompson has just made it one step closer to Favre's departure from the team or his retirement.
What does Favre mean when he wants to see free agent signings to keep the team competitive? I would assume that Favre is thinking offense first. The only signing there has been RB Ahman Green. That is better than nothing, but Green's best days are probably behind him. There were two top running backs available; RB Edgerrin James and RB Shaun Alexander, and the Packers made no effort to sign either. The Packers made no effort to sign any of the top 3 offensive lineman; T Kevin Shaffer, G Steve Hutchinson, or C LeCharles Bentley. With WR Javon Walker demanding a trade, it wouldn't hurt the Packers to sign a wide receiver, but they made no effort at either WRs Antwaan Randle El or WR David Givens.
What remaining signings could get Favre's attention? The only obvious one is WR Terrell Owens, but there have been no rumors of any interest from the Packers. Plus signing Owens brings with it a new set of problems. There are a couple of big name linebackers available; LB Lavar Arrington and LB Julian Peterson, but they would demand big money and both players have issues with attitude and injuries, respectively. Would Favre care if the Packers signed K Mike Vanderjagt?
Despite the huge cap room this offseason, the Packers have done little in free agency. The two new players; S Marquand Manuel and Pickett don't add much more than S Mark Roman and Jackson provided in 2005. GM Ted Thompson has just made it one step closer to Favre's departure from the team or his retirement.
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Two items of interest in this article. The Packers had NT Ryan Pickett in town. The personnel director quoted in the article prefers Pickett over NT Grady Jackson, which isn't a big surprise since Pickett is a young tackle and Jackson isn't. It doesn't seem likely that Jackson's body will hold up for too many more seasons. Although Football Outsiders ranked the St. Louis defensive line 21st last season, 3 spots better than the Packers. St. Louis had an odd season because they had the 3rd best rank at stuffing running plays for a loss but were 30th vs. runs on 3rd or 4th down with less than 2 yards to go. The Packers need to replace Jackson because he can't be trusted with a long-term deal at this point in his career. Pickett appears to be a modest upgrade with better potential to make it through to the end of a long term deal.
The second item was the $3 million signing bonus Minnesota gave to K Ryan Longwell. That is a stunning amount to give to a kicker, especially a kicker who was awful in 2005. That signing bonus appears to be the blessing and the curse of having a lot of salary cap room.
It was reported that DE Aaron Kampman received a 4 year, $21 million deal and $12 million of it is guaranteed. That is a really big number. For example, RB Edgerrin James received $11.5 million guaranteed in a 4 year, $30 million deal. The size of the guaranteed money isn't surprising since it was enough to keep Kampman from entering the free agent market.
For the second season in a row, Minnesota trades away a superstar. Anything that weakens Minnesota sounds like a good idea. It will now be interesting to see if Minnesota moves up to draft QB Matt Leinert or QB Vince Young since New Orleans's 2nd overall pick is apparently available in trade and Minnesota has an extra 2nd round pick to offer in return. It would seem unlikely that QB Duante Culpepper will ever play as well as he did during the 2004 season again, but it is better to avoid the chance of it happening in Minnesota.
In other NFC North quarterback news, Detroit signed QB Jon Kitna. It would seem that Kitna's best games are behind the 33 year old quarterback, but Prez. Matt Millen can't let GM Ted Thompson upstage him with his crappy S Marquand Manuel signing and Millen signed Kitna plus ex-Packer WR Corey Bradford. QB Joey Harrington is not a great player, but Kitna isn't much of an upgrade.
The second item was the $3 million signing bonus Minnesota gave to K Ryan Longwell. That is a stunning amount to give to a kicker, especially a kicker who was awful in 2005. That signing bonus appears to be the blessing and the curse of having a lot of salary cap room.
It was reported that DE Aaron Kampman received a 4 year, $21 million deal and $12 million of it is guaranteed. That is a really big number. For example, RB Edgerrin James received $11.5 million guaranteed in a 4 year, $30 million deal. The size of the guaranteed money isn't surprising since it was enough to keep Kampman from entering the free agent market.
For the second season in a row, Minnesota trades away a superstar. Anything that weakens Minnesota sounds like a good idea. It will now be interesting to see if Minnesota moves up to draft QB Matt Leinert or QB Vince Young since New Orleans's 2nd overall pick is apparently available in trade and Minnesota has an extra 2nd round pick to offer in return. It would seem unlikely that QB Duante Culpepper will ever play as well as he did during the 2004 season again, but it is better to avoid the chance of it happening in Minnesota.
In other NFC North quarterback news, Detroit signed QB Jon Kitna. It would seem that Kitna's best games are behind the 33 year old quarterback, but Prez. Matt Millen can't let GM Ted Thompson upstage him with his crappy S Marquand Manuel signing and Millen signed Kitna plus ex-Packer WR Corey Bradford. QB Joey Harrington is not a great player, but Kitna isn't much of an upgrade.
Monday, March 13, 2006
The Packers probably did good by resigning DE Aaron Kampman. Keeping Kampman is a good deal by itself because Kampman was the team's best defensive lineman in 2005. It could be bad if the Packers decide to draft DE Mario Williams in the 1st round, the player that they were most recently rumored to be interested in. Does that mean DE KGB becomes a linebacker? Will GM Ted Thompson encourage more 3 defensive end sets? If the Packers have decided on someone else with their 1st round pick, like LB A.J. Hawk, then resigning Kampman makes sense. Unfortunately the terms of the contract weren't announced. It would probably seem like too much money for Kampman, but in a world where Minnesota would guarantee $16 million for an offensive guard, it probably is reasonable.
Minnesota moved quickly to sign K Ryan Longwell. This keeps the annual trend intact for Minnesota as they sign a kicker from a division rival for the second consecutive season. Apparently K Jason Hanson will be kicking in Minnesota next season. Longwell had been outstanding from 1997 through 2004 on scoring attempts, but he fell apart in 2005 and cost the Packers 1 or 2 games with missed field goals and a big missed extra point against Tampa Bay. If Longwell continues to kick as he did in 2005, then he will not be missed. A potential benefit is that Longwell had been killing the Packers with poor kickoffs for several seasons. Hopefully the next kicker for the Packers can help them win the field position battle better than Longwell.
Some people love Green Bay, but WR Javon Walker doesn't believe it is "the best place for me." As much as the Packers don't need a return of the 2004 CB Mike McKenzie saga, the Packers should not give Walker a new contract. Walker will not be a great receiver in 2006 because he will still be recovering from his knee injury. By 2007, Walker should be as good or better than he was before the injury. The Packers should see how Walker plays in 2006, then try and extend his contract next offseason if he looks fully recovered. The Packers have all the leverage in this situation and if Walker wants to screw around with his career and retire, then that his choice. The Packers can't afford to trade him now when his value is at its lowest.
S Marquand Manuel signed his contract with the Packers as expected. It isn't much money, but as I discussed last week, S Mark Roman actually outplayed Manuel in 2005. The big difference was that Manuel had two big playoff games plus he was claimed off of waivers by Seattle when Thompson was still working for the Seahawks. The Packers would be better if they could find a safety who can outplay Roman, but Manuel is a career backup who did nothing during the 2005 regular season and he won't outplay him.
Why Minnesota would want QB Craig Nall or FB William Henderson is a bit of a mystery. Nall might be a competant NFL starting quarterback, but it is more likely he is the next QB A.J. Feeley. Henderson was in the Pro Bowl in 2004, but he took a step back in 2005. While Henderson still played well in 2005, he didn't play nearly as much as he used to and FB Vonta Leach as much if not more than Henderson. Henderson has been a great Packer for over 10 seasons, but he may have played his last quality NFL season.
Thompson appears to be continuing his poor track record with other team's free agents by showing interest in LB Ben Taylor when no one else is. Taylor had a solid 2005 season but if a player has no visits scheduled with any other team at this point, then how good is he? He might be just as good as Manuel; a career backup who is better suited for special teams.
Minnesota moved quickly to sign K Ryan Longwell. This keeps the annual trend intact for Minnesota as they sign a kicker from a division rival for the second consecutive season. Apparently K Jason Hanson will be kicking in Minnesota next season. Longwell had been outstanding from 1997 through 2004 on scoring attempts, but he fell apart in 2005 and cost the Packers 1 or 2 games with missed field goals and a big missed extra point against Tampa Bay. If Longwell continues to kick as he did in 2005, then he will not be missed. A potential benefit is that Longwell had been killing the Packers with poor kickoffs for several seasons. Hopefully the next kicker for the Packers can help them win the field position battle better than Longwell.
Some people love Green Bay, but WR Javon Walker doesn't believe it is "the best place for me." As much as the Packers don't need a return of the 2004 CB Mike McKenzie saga, the Packers should not give Walker a new contract. Walker will not be a great receiver in 2006 because he will still be recovering from his knee injury. By 2007, Walker should be as good or better than he was before the injury. The Packers should see how Walker plays in 2006, then try and extend his contract next offseason if he looks fully recovered. The Packers have all the leverage in this situation and if Walker wants to screw around with his career and retire, then that his choice. The Packers can't afford to trade him now when his value is at its lowest.
S Marquand Manuel signed his contract with the Packers as expected. It isn't much money, but as I discussed last week, S Mark Roman actually outplayed Manuel in 2005. The big difference was that Manuel had two big playoff games plus he was claimed off of waivers by Seattle when Thompson was still working for the Seahawks. The Packers would be better if they could find a safety who can outplay Roman, but Manuel is a career backup who did nothing during the 2005 regular season and he won't outplay him.
Why Minnesota would want QB Craig Nall or FB William Henderson is a bit of a mystery. Nall might be a competant NFL starting quarterback, but it is more likely he is the next QB A.J. Feeley. Henderson was in the Pro Bowl in 2004, but he took a step back in 2005. While Henderson still played well in 2005, he didn't play nearly as much as he used to and FB Vonta Leach as much if not more than Henderson. Henderson has been a great Packer for over 10 seasons, but he may have played his last quality NFL season.
Thompson appears to be continuing his poor track record with other team's free agents by showing interest in LB Ben Taylor when no one else is. Taylor had a solid 2005 season but if a player has no visits scheduled with any other team at this point, then how good is he? He might be just as good as Manuel; a career backup who is better suited for special teams.
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Jsonline.com reported that the Packers will sign S Marquand Manuel as soon as free agency begins. It seems to be a trend that GM Ted Thompson has a poor track record for signing free agents. None of the free agents signed by Thompson last offseason made any significant contribution to the Packers. Signing Manuel doesn't guarantee the streak of signing useless free agents is soon to end.
Manuel is a career backup who was claimed off waivers by Seattle from Cincinnati before the start of the 2004 season. It seems to be assumed that Manuel played well after Seattle lost S Ken Hamlin for the season and is now deserving of a starting position, however, it is more likely that Manuel is S Mark Roman v.2.0. Seattle's pass defense was actually worse in 2005 than the Packers. Jsonline.com quoted a NFC scout who said "one of his strengths would be being physical when attacking the line of scrimmage" while "his weakness would be ball skills." If new defensive coordinator Bob Sanders uses the same defense as Jim Bates did last season, the safeties in the defense are interchangable and have to be able to play the run and the pass. Rookie S Nick Collins made some mistakes in 2005, but he also showed the ability to play both the run and the pass. Manuel doesn't sound like he is the same caliber of player. The only person quoted by jsonline.com who consistently spoke well of Manuel was his agent.
Manuel appears to be the classic guy who played great in the playoffs after nothing much during the regular season. He had no interceptions and 2 pass defenses during the regular season and 1 interception and 5 pass defenses during his 3 playoff games. Compare him to Roman and it looks like Roman actually played better in 2005. Overall, the Packers are paying a $2 million signing bonus for a player who isn't as good as the player they already have. Another crap move by Thompson.
Jsonline.com said "the Packers have identified Manuel as the player they want as their other starting safety in ’06 from a free-agent list that includes Chris Hope, Tank Williams, Marlon McCree, Tebucky Jones, Lawyer Milloy and Marcus Coleman." That is not a list of players to get excited about. Although Roman has not played great during his time with the Packers, the only player who is truly an upgrade over Roman is S Chris Hope. The only problem with Hope is that he calls the plays on defense for Pittsburgh and it would be a major surprise if Pittsburgh lets him leave in free agency. The Packers should be trying to develop a safety to play alongside Collins, but S Marviel Underwood was a non-factor during 2005 after Thompson spent a 4th round pick on him last April. Apparently Underwood is another mistake made by Thompson.
On ESPN last night, Mel Kiper predicted that the Packers would draft DE Mario Williams. It would explain why the Packers are dragging out negotiations with DE Aaron Kampman if they want to draft Williams. With Williams on the team, it would seem that Kampman would be a backup, but Kampman probably wants to be paid like a starter. If the Packers fail to resign Kampman, it would seem more likely that Kiper is correct and Williams will be a Packer next season.
Manuel is a career backup who was claimed off waivers by Seattle from Cincinnati before the start of the 2004 season. It seems to be assumed that Manuel played well after Seattle lost S Ken Hamlin for the season and is now deserving of a starting position, however, it is more likely that Manuel is S Mark Roman v.2.0. Seattle's pass defense was actually worse in 2005 than the Packers. Jsonline.com quoted a NFC scout who said "one of his strengths would be being physical when attacking the line of scrimmage" while "his weakness would be ball skills." If new defensive coordinator Bob Sanders uses the same defense as Jim Bates did last season, the safeties in the defense are interchangable and have to be able to play the run and the pass. Rookie S Nick Collins made some mistakes in 2005, but he also showed the ability to play both the run and the pass. Manuel doesn't sound like he is the same caliber of player. The only person quoted by jsonline.com who consistently spoke well of Manuel was his agent.
Manuel appears to be the classic guy who played great in the playoffs after nothing much during the regular season. He had no interceptions and 2 pass defenses during the regular season and 1 interception and 5 pass defenses during his 3 playoff games. Compare him to Roman and it looks like Roman actually played better in 2005. Overall, the Packers are paying a $2 million signing bonus for a player who isn't as good as the player they already have. Another crap move by Thompson.
Jsonline.com said "the Packers have identified Manuel as the player they want as their other starting safety in ’06 from a free-agent list that includes Chris Hope, Tank Williams, Marlon McCree, Tebucky Jones, Lawyer Milloy and Marcus Coleman." That is not a list of players to get excited about. Although Roman has not played great during his time with the Packers, the only player who is truly an upgrade over Roman is S Chris Hope. The only problem with Hope is that he calls the plays on defense for Pittsburgh and it would be a major surprise if Pittsburgh lets him leave in free agency. The Packers should be trying to develop a safety to play alongside Collins, but S Marviel Underwood was a non-factor during 2005 after Thompson spent a 4th round pick on him last April. Apparently Underwood is another mistake made by Thompson.
On ESPN last night, Mel Kiper predicted that the Packers would draft DE Mario Williams. It would explain why the Packers are dragging out negotiations with DE Aaron Kampman if they want to draft Williams. With Williams on the team, it would seem that Kampman would be a backup, but Kampman probably wants to be paid like a starter. If the Packers fail to resign Kampman, it would seem more likely that Kiper is correct and Williams will be a Packer next season.
Monday, March 06, 2006
The Packers resigned RB Ahman Green for one season. Green is guaranteed $2 million and could make another $3 million with incentives. Hopefully, the incentives are hard to reach, such as 1,200 yards or 10 TDs. The most likely scenario is that Green is done. In NFL history, there is not a long list of success for running backs who are almost 30 years old and coming off a major knee injury. This is $2 million less that the Packers have to sign a running back that might really help them in 2006, such as RB Michael Bennett or RB Mike Anderson.
In the end, this is a deal has small downside. If Green is done and the Packers realize it after 2006, then Green is released and doesn't cost the Packers any future money or cap space. The Packers have a lot of cap space this season and it is likely that the Packers won't use it all anyway. If the unexpected happens and Green does return to pre-2005 form, then the Packers made a great signing.
In the end, this is a deal has small downside. If Green is done and the Packers realize it after 2006, then Green is released and doesn't cost the Packers any future money or cap space. The Packers have a lot of cap space this season and it is likely that the Packers won't use it all anyway. If the unexpected happens and Green does return to pre-2005 form, then the Packers made a great signing.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Although they are over $20 million under the salary cap, the Packers cut LB Na'il Diggs and some punter. It is too bad that it had to end like this for Diggs. He had been a valuable contributor but leg injuries had limited him over the last two seasons. He played in 14 games in 2004, but he wasn't the same player he had been in 2003 and he didn't make a difference in pass coverage or as a pass rusher anymore. His injury problems make it unlikely that Diggs will be able to perform as a quality starter in the future.
Few thought it was likely but it appears that "Bloody Thursday" will come to pass. I thought the Packers might do best to act fast, but Len Pasquarelli says "because of the quirks of the pending uncapped year in 2007, even those teams will have to move with great caution in crafting contracts." There are many teams with cap flexability and the Packers will have more competition for free agents then I expected.
The failed CBA extension will impact the Packers draft in April too. Pasquarelli points out that "without an extension to the CBA, teams will be able to amortize signing bonuses over just four seasons, instead of the maximum seven years." This is a problem if the Packers decide to draft a quarterback with the fifth overall selection. QB Vince Young is expecting a signing bonus and guaranteed money of around $20 million. The Packers can only spread the signing bonus over four seasons. The Packers have more salary cap room than most teams, but all teams have the same amount of rookie cap room, usually around $4 to $6 million. The Packers won't sign Young and leave themselves no room to sign any other draft choices, but it means that any team that drafts a quarterback this season is looking at a tough negotiation and a long holdout. If the Packers draft an offensive lineman or defensive player instead, that player won't command such a high signing bonus and the Packers probably won't have too much trouble with the rookie salary cap.
Scanning the list of names on ESPN.com's rumor central brings up a few references to the Packers. QB Brett Favre is mentioned, but that is pure speculation since Favre isn't talking to anyone about it. The Packers are rumored to be interested LB Derek Smith. Since Mike McCarthy was coaching last season in San Francisco, it makes sense that he would be familar with Smith. The Packers really need a linebacker who can stay healthy and help in coverage, two abilities Smith has shown over the last few seasons. The big problem with Smith is that he is over 30 years old, but he hasn't shown any signs of decline over the last couple of seasons. There is no need to break the bank for Smith, but he would be a welcome upgrade at outside linebacker. The Packers are rumored to be far apart in negotiations with DE Aaron Kampman. Kampman is coming off a career 2005 season and looking to cash in. If the Packers are really interested in DE Mario Williams with the fifth overall selection, then resigning Kampman isn't a priority. Otherwise the Packers need Kampman back and hopefully they don't lose him. K Ryan Longwell is a free agent but he is coming off the worst season of his career and he was one of the worst kickers in the NFL last season. I doubt many teams will show much interest in Longwell. Hopefully he comes back to the Packers and is given some real competition in training camp this season (but please don't draft a kicker!).
The failed CBA extension will impact the Packers draft in April too. Pasquarelli points out that "without an extension to the CBA, teams will be able to amortize signing bonuses over just four seasons, instead of the maximum seven years." This is a problem if the Packers decide to draft a quarterback with the fifth overall selection. QB Vince Young is expecting a signing bonus and guaranteed money of around $20 million. The Packers can only spread the signing bonus over four seasons. The Packers have more salary cap room than most teams, but all teams have the same amount of rookie cap room, usually around $4 to $6 million. The Packers won't sign Young and leave themselves no room to sign any other draft choices, but it means that any team that drafts a quarterback this season is looking at a tough negotiation and a long holdout. If the Packers draft an offensive lineman or defensive player instead, that player won't command such a high signing bonus and the Packers probably won't have too much trouble with the rookie salary cap.
Scanning the list of names on ESPN.com's rumor central brings up a few references to the Packers. QB Brett Favre is mentioned, but that is pure speculation since Favre isn't talking to anyone about it. The Packers are rumored to be interested LB Derek Smith. Since Mike McCarthy was coaching last season in San Francisco, it makes sense that he would be familar with Smith. The Packers really need a linebacker who can stay healthy and help in coverage, two abilities Smith has shown over the last few seasons. The big problem with Smith is that he is over 30 years old, but he hasn't shown any signs of decline over the last couple of seasons. There is no need to break the bank for Smith, but he would be a welcome upgrade at outside linebacker. The Packers are rumored to be far apart in negotiations with DE Aaron Kampman. Kampman is coming off a career 2005 season and looking to cash in. If the Packers are really interested in DE Mario Williams with the fifth overall selection, then resigning Kampman isn't a priority. Otherwise the Packers need Kampman back and hopefully they don't lose him. K Ryan Longwell is a free agent but he is coming off the worst season of his career and he was one of the worst kickers in the NFL last season. I doubt many teams will show much interest in Longwell. Hopefully he comes back to the Packers and is given some real competition in training camp this season (but please don't draft a kicker!).
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
No one knows how this labor negotiation is going to unfold except Gene Upshaw and Paul Tagliabue. Luckily it won't hurt the Packers one way or another because the team is $20 million under the salary cap. It may be a boon to the Packers if other teams are forced to cut players to get under the salary cap by Friday and then the Packers move quickly to sign quality free agents. Some players might want to act fast to find a new contract with so many free agents now available and so few teams able to spend because of the salary cap.
The most likely scenario is that the teams agree to a new revenue sharing agreement and the salary cap is substantially raised by Friday, which would mean the current $20 million of cap room really won't do the team much good because now everybody has cap room to spend on the remaining few quality free agents. With the losing 2005 season plus all the changes in the front office and all the talk about the retirement of QB Brett Favre, the Packers won't be a preferred new home for most free agents.
The most likely scenario is that the teams agree to a new revenue sharing agreement and the salary cap is substantially raised by Friday, which would mean the current $20 million of cap room really won't do the team much good because now everybody has cap room to spend on the remaining few quality free agents. With the losing 2005 season plus all the changes in the front office and all the talk about the retirement of QB Brett Favre, the Packers won't be a preferred new home for most free agents.
Saturday, February 25, 2006
WR Javon Walker wants a new contract? This didn't work for Walker last season when he was healthy and coming off a career 2004 season. Now he is coming off a major knee injury and he hasn't played much football in the last 12 months. Until Walker, Minnesota QB Daunte Culpepper, and even NT Grady Jackson last summer, I can't remember a player ever publicly seeking a new contract while they were hurt or rehabbing from a major injury. Walker might as well try for a new contract/ask for a trade although GM Ted Thompson has been very tight with long term contracts up to this point. The odds of Thompson trading Walker would have to be remote.
Ted Thompson is Matt Millen 2.0. Millen drafted a 1st round WR in 3 consecutive drafts. Thompson is going to call and raise that by drafting a 1st round QB in 3 consecutive drafts. USC QB Matt Leinart won't be available at no. 5 so Thompson is talking about Texas QB Vince Young or Vandy QB Jay Cutler. This is such a bad idea. It seems more likely that the Young vs. Cutler debate is more similar to the 1999 QB Akili Smith vs. QB Cade McNown debate than the 1983 QB John Elway vs. QB Dan Marino debate. This would mean the Packers have spent another 1st round pick in one area where there hasn't been any need yet (assuming QB Brett Favre wouldn't have retired yet if Thompson hadn't destroyed the team) while neglecting other positions of actual need (linebacker, defensive line, offensive line). The strain of carrying two 1st round QBs on the roster might be more than the Packers salary cap can handle. Finally, new coach Mike McCarthy has "mentored" two young quarterbacks so far in his NFL career; QB Aaron Brooks and QB Alex Smith. Brooks has become a below average QB and Smith's rookie season was arguably the worst season ever by a QB. Now McCarthy has two young QBs to develop? This is a bad idea, but there is nothing to indicate that this trainwreck will improve until the Packers fire Thompson and McCarthy in a couple of seasons and there is nothing the fans can do in the meantime.
Ted Thompson is Matt Millen 2.0. Millen drafted a 1st round WR in 3 consecutive drafts. Thompson is going to call and raise that by drafting a 1st round QB in 3 consecutive drafts. USC QB Matt Leinart won't be available at no. 5 so Thompson is talking about Texas QB Vince Young or Vandy QB Jay Cutler. This is such a bad idea. It seems more likely that the Young vs. Cutler debate is more similar to the 1999 QB Akili Smith vs. QB Cade McNown debate than the 1983 QB John Elway vs. QB Dan Marino debate. This would mean the Packers have spent another 1st round pick in one area where there hasn't been any need yet (assuming QB Brett Favre wouldn't have retired yet if Thompson hadn't destroyed the team) while neglecting other positions of actual need (linebacker, defensive line, offensive line). The strain of carrying two 1st round QBs on the roster might be more than the Packers salary cap can handle. Finally, new coach Mike McCarthy has "mentored" two young quarterbacks so far in his NFL career; QB Aaron Brooks and QB Alex Smith. Brooks has become a below average QB and Smith's rookie season was arguably the worst season ever by a QB. Now McCarthy has two young QBs to develop? This is a bad idea, but there is nothing to indicate that this trainwreck will improve until the Packers fire Thompson and McCarthy in a couple of seasons and there is nothing the fans can do in the meantime.
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
The Packers assigned eight players to NFL Europe. It is probably good experience for the players, but all of them are only candidates for the practice squad.
Down in Arkansas, CB Ahmad Carroll was arrested. It is an assault charge and he is probably looking at some community service time. It sounds like he was being a jerk.
Mike Sherman will be the next offensive coordinator in Houston. There are things to like and dislike about this from Sherman's perspective. He will work with Gary Kubiak who was probably the best new head coaching hire this offseason and he will coach RB Reggie Bush. Unfortunately the offensive line is a mess, QB David Carr will probably be learning his fifth new offense in his fifth NFL season, and Kubiak and Bush may get all the credit for the improved offense. If Houston is a playoff contender by 2007, Sherman may be a head coach by 2008 which should be right around the time the Packers will probably be looking for their next head coach.
Down in Arkansas, CB Ahmad Carroll was arrested. It is an assault charge and he is probably looking at some community service time. It sounds like he was being a jerk.
Mike Sherman will be the next offensive coordinator in Houston. There are things to like and dislike about this from Sherman's perspective. He will work with Gary Kubiak who was probably the best new head coaching hire this offseason and he will coach RB Reggie Bush. Unfortunately the offensive line is a mess, QB David Carr will probably be learning his fifth new offense in his fifth NFL season, and Kubiak and Bush may get all the credit for the improved offense. If Houston is a playoff contender by 2007, Sherman may be a head coach by 2008 which should be right around the time the Packers will probably be looking for their next head coach.
Saturday, February 11, 2006
There isn't much going on at this point in the offseason, but I had missed this gem from last week. Mike McCarthy hired Kurt Schottenheimer to coach the defensive backs and he is the second coach hired by McCarthy that Mike Sherman had fired. Since McCarthy was not resigned after Sherman was originally hired in 2000, maybe he has some special sympathy for coaches fired by Sherman.
Jeff Jagodzinski was fired along with Ed Donatell after the 4th and 26 debacle in the 2004 playoffs. It was never reported why Jagodzinski was fired and it wasn't really obvious that he should have been fired. On the other hand, Schottenheimer's hiring in 2004 was a disaster from the beginning. That Schottenheimer was hired and assistant Lionel Washington was passed over for defensive backs coach was one of the reasons given by CB Mike McKenzie for his trade demand. A new contract was McKenzie's first concern, but Schottenheimer's hiring played a part in the trade. Then in 2004, the secondary played awful under Schottenheimer's coaching. There were a lot of factors beyond Schottenheimer's control (McKenzie never really played again for the Packers, they were forced to play a number of rookies, FS Darren Sharper had a down season) but it was very understandable why he was fired after an awful season for the defense. The rehiring of Schottenheimer is much worse than the rehiring of Jagodzinski, and his rehiring is still very questionable (see my previous posts about it).
The Packers quest to put together the worst coaching staff in the NFL continues to roll on.
Jeff Jagodzinski was fired along with Ed Donatell after the 4th and 26 debacle in the 2004 playoffs. It was never reported why Jagodzinski was fired and it wasn't really obvious that he should have been fired. On the other hand, Schottenheimer's hiring in 2004 was a disaster from the beginning. That Schottenheimer was hired and assistant Lionel Washington was passed over for defensive backs coach was one of the reasons given by CB Mike McKenzie for his trade demand. A new contract was McKenzie's first concern, but Schottenheimer's hiring played a part in the trade. Then in 2004, the secondary played awful under Schottenheimer's coaching. There were a lot of factors beyond Schottenheimer's control (McKenzie never really played again for the Packers, they were forced to play a number of rookies, FS Darren Sharper had a down season) but it was very understandable why he was fired after an awful season for the defense. The rehiring of Schottenheimer is much worse than the rehiring of Jagodzinski, and his rehiring is still very questionable (see my previous posts about it).
The Packers quest to put together the worst coaching staff in the NFL continues to roll on.
Monday, January 30, 2006
My last post discussed QB Brett Favre and his potential retirement. I mentioned the potential of cap savings if Favre retires. I don't know if Favre will actually save the Packers anything in 2006, which is possible because his prorated signing bonuses might catch up to the Packers on retirement. Assuming Favre's retirement creates cap savings that the Packers could use to sign free agents, none of the free agents available would make the retirement worth it. There is no 1992-era DE Reggie White available. The best the Packers could do is sign one of the available quality offensive lineman like OG Steve Hutchinson, C LeCharles Bentley, or T Kevin Shaffer. Shaffer may be the most likely signing since new offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodiznski coached Shaffer in Atlanta. The article also mentions LBs Hunter Hillenmeyer and Julian Peterson, but I agree with Michael David Smith that they would probably cost more than they are worth. If Favre does retire, then GM Ted Thompson better use his cap room to improve the offensive line, but he better not force Favre out the door just so he can have money to spend on 2006 free agents.
Thursday, January 26, 2006
I'm a couple of days behind on the hiring of Bob Sanders as defensive coordinator. Sanders had worked with previous coordinator Jim Bates since 2001 as his linebackers coach and interim defensive coordinator when Bates was Miami's interim head coach in 2004. Mike McCarthy wanted to keep Bates, but Bates felt it was better for him to move on. Now McCarthy, apparently, has the next best man to Bates himself. It seemed like a no-brainer that the Packers would hire Vic Fangio, defensive coordinator of the league's worst defense in 2005. Also, Fangio would have brought the problem of converting the defense to a 3-4 when the Packers don't have enough quality/healthy linebackers to play in a 4-3 defense. Instead, McCarthy went with consistancy and made the best hire so far this offseason. Any excitement about hiring Sanders is offset by the fact he coached the defensive line in 2005, and the same group of lineman (plus a more healthy NT Grady Jackson) actually played better in 2004 than in 2005 despite the defense as a whole played better last season.
Plus the Packers are &*$%ing around with QB Brett Favre. This is starting to remind me of the first retirement for DE Reggie White in 1998, when the Packers had a coaching change and didn't keep in touch with White during the offseason. White hadn't made up his mind whether to return and actually had planned to retire the season before he won the 1998 NFC Defensive Player of the Year, but the Packers couldn't wait because White's retirement provided so much salary cap relief. If White wasn't coming back, then the Packers wanted to know so they could plan for it and have more money for free agency. White would have probably stayed on for two more seasons, and this miscommunication was probably Ron Wolf's biggest mistake. White wouldn't have pushed the Packers into the playoffs during either 1999 and 2000 (the two seasons when QB Brett Favre was dealing with all his thumb/elbow/addiction problems), but two more seasons from a Hall of Fame player is always worth watching.
I don't know what impact Favre has on the Packers 2006 salary cap, but it must be huge. If Favre retires, then the Packers must be looking at either a huge cap hit (like Dallas after QB Troy Aikman's retirement) or a huge cap savings. John Clayton said on ESPN that Favre wants to see what McCarthy has planned for 2006 before making up his mind, but McCarthy hasn't talked to Favre yet. It seems likely that Favre will not be back in 2006; Ted Thompson probably thinks its time for a change (apparently for the sake of change) plus Favre should not want to come back to the mess that will be the 2006 Packers.
Plus the Packers are &*$%ing around with QB Brett Favre. This is starting to remind me of the first retirement for DE Reggie White in 1998, when the Packers had a coaching change and didn't keep in touch with White during the offseason. White hadn't made up his mind whether to return and actually had planned to retire the season before he won the 1998 NFC Defensive Player of the Year, but the Packers couldn't wait because White's retirement provided so much salary cap relief. If White wasn't coming back, then the Packers wanted to know so they could plan for it and have more money for free agency. White would have probably stayed on for two more seasons, and this miscommunication was probably Ron Wolf's biggest mistake. White wouldn't have pushed the Packers into the playoffs during either 1999 and 2000 (the two seasons when QB Brett Favre was dealing with all his thumb/elbow/addiction problems), but two more seasons from a Hall of Fame player is always worth watching.
I don't know what impact Favre has on the Packers 2006 salary cap, but it must be huge. If Favre retires, then the Packers must be looking at either a huge cap hit (like Dallas after QB Troy Aikman's retirement) or a huge cap savings. John Clayton said on ESPN that Favre wants to see what McCarthy has planned for 2006 before making up his mind, but McCarthy hasn't talked to Favre yet. It seems likely that Favre will not be back in 2006; Ted Thompson probably thinks its time for a change (apparently for the sake of change) plus Favre should not want to come back to the mess that will be the 2006 Packers.
Friday, January 20, 2006
Although "McCarthy had promised to hire a defensive coordinator first before hiring position coaches" he went ahead and hired Winston Moss to coach the linebackers in 2006. McCarthy said "[Moss] was highly sought after as an assistant by several teams." He must be a great guy, because he hasn't coached too many good linebackers in his five seasons in New Orleans. In the last five drafts, New Orleans had drafted a linebacker in the 2nd or 3rd round in each season. In 2005, New Orleans was led in tackles by LB Colby Bockwoldt, a 2004 7th round pick, and veteran free agent LB Robert McKinnon. I don't follow New Orleans, but no matter if it was because of injuries or ineffectiveness, none of the five first day draft choices selected have emerged into the team's top linebacker under Moss's coaching. Maybe Moss has developed Bockwoldt into a linebacker beyond his 7th round status, but somehow I doubt it. Despite McKinnon's status as second leading tackler, his 2005 stats were far below his best seasons in Arizona. None of the players coached by Moss in 2005 excelled and overall New Orleans had a pretty crummy defense, so of course McCarthy had to have Moss for 2006.
The Jsonline.com article also mentioned former Houston defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was interviewed for the Packers defensive coordinator job. The article said Packers defensive line coach Bob Sanders is the front runner, but the Packers have to hire Fangio. Fangio led the worst defense in the NFL in 2005. The Packers current philosophy is to hire the worst available candidate and hope for the best; so Fangio, the coordinator of the worst defense in 2005, has to be the "best" candidate. Accept no competent substitute!
The Jsonline.com article also mentioned former Houston defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was interviewed for the Packers defensive coordinator job. The article said Packers defensive line coach Bob Sanders is the front runner, but the Packers have to hire Fangio. Fangio led the worst defense in the NFL in 2005. The Packers current philosophy is to hire the worst available candidate and hope for the best; so Fangio, the coordinator of the worst defense in 2005, has to be the "best" candidate. Accept no competent substitute!
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Another quality hire by Mike McCarthy. At least the Packers have never fired Mike Stock before. Stock has been around forever and got his first coaching job with the legendary Ara Parseghian at Notre Dame back in the 1960s. He was special teams coach of the year in 1987 and apparently he has been coasting off that past success plus his relationship with Marty Schottenheimer ever since.
Special teams is very important. The special teams coach is like the 3rd coordinator. Last season, K Ryan Longwell can take blame for at least the Tampa Bay loss and was one of the worst kickers in the NFL. The Packers were killed all season long by poor field position due to bad kicks, bad kick coverage, and bad kick returns. WR Antonio Chatman had a late season punt return for a TD and CB Ahmad Carroll was a good late season kickoff return man, but they were the only positives from a unit that was a drag on the Packers all season long. The Packers should replace or provide a serious challenger to both Longwell and P B.J. Sander next season.
Stock has not had a lot of success in the NFL despite his longevity. Stock sat out the 2005 season while recovering from hip replacement surgery and supposedly"you can't gauge him by what happened in St. Louis" during 2004 because "Martz never let (Stock) coach there" according to one unnamed personnel director. Football Outsiders goes all the way back to 1998 with ratings for special teams and special teams coached by Stock (Kansas City 1998-2000 and Washington 2001-2003) have never done better than Packers special teams during that season. Frank Novak is one year older than the 66 year old Stock and Novak has been working with Packers special teams since 2000. Novak's special teams have been better than Stock's special teams in every season, but the Packers are attempting to bring in a less competant coach at every position this offseason; so Novak is out and Stock is in.
Improved play out of Longwell or the new 2006 kicker will go a long way to improve the special teams in 2006. The Packers have not paid enough attention to special teams over the last few seasons and there is no reason to believe that they have changed. Stock will probably receive a lot of credit for the likely improvement from the second worst special teams unit in the NFL during 2005, but it probably won't be his to take because he hasn't proven that he can do a better job than any Packers special teams coach in the last several seasons.
Special teams is very important. The special teams coach is like the 3rd coordinator. Last season, K Ryan Longwell can take blame for at least the Tampa Bay loss and was one of the worst kickers in the NFL. The Packers were killed all season long by poor field position due to bad kicks, bad kick coverage, and bad kick returns. WR Antonio Chatman had a late season punt return for a TD and CB Ahmad Carroll was a good late season kickoff return man, but they were the only positives from a unit that was a drag on the Packers all season long. The Packers should replace or provide a serious challenger to both Longwell and P B.J. Sander next season.
Stock has not had a lot of success in the NFL despite his longevity. Stock sat out the 2005 season while recovering from hip replacement surgery and supposedly"you can't gauge him by what happened in St. Louis" during 2004 because "Martz never let (Stock) coach there" according to one unnamed personnel director. Football Outsiders goes all the way back to 1998 with ratings for special teams and special teams coached by Stock (Kansas City 1998-2000 and Washington 2001-2003) have never done better than Packers special teams during that season. Frank Novak is one year older than the 66 year old Stock and Novak has been working with Packers special teams since 2000. Novak's special teams have been better than Stock's special teams in every season, but the Packers are attempting to bring in a less competant coach at every position this offseason; so Novak is out and Stock is in.
Improved play out of Longwell or the new 2006 kicker will go a long way to improve the special teams in 2006. The Packers have not paid enough attention to special teams over the last few seasons and there is no reason to believe that they have changed. Stock will probably receive a lot of credit for the likely improvement from the second worst special teams unit in the NFL during 2005, but it probably won't be his to take because he hasn't proven that he can do a better job than any Packers special teams coach in the last several seasons.
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Huh? Detroit's Matt Millan didn't hire someone from San Francisco? He hired someone who has coached on one of the best defenses in the league? Someone who has worked with one of the most respective defensive coaches in the league for the past 10 seasons? The tide has turned in the NFC North; Detroit hires a successful assistant coach as their new head coach while the Packers hire from San Francisco.
Tampa Bay's defensive line has been one of the best in the league for the last few seasons. Detroit's NT Shaun Rogers is arguably the best in the NFL at his position, but his play is inconsistent. Hiring Rod Marinelli may be just what Detroit's good but inconsitent defense needs. Detroit still has to rebuild their offense, which was awful in 2005 despite the fact that Detroit has used their last six first round picks (since 2001 with LT Jeff Backus) on offensive players, including four picks in the top 10.
Tampa Bay's defensive line has been one of the best in the league for the last few seasons. Detroit's NT Shaun Rogers is arguably the best in the NFL at his position, but his play is inconsistent. Hiring Rod Marinelli may be just what Detroit's good but inconsitent defense needs. Detroit still has to rebuild their offense, which was awful in 2005 despite the fact that Detroit has used their last six first round picks (since 2001 with LT Jeff Backus) on offensive players, including four picks in the top 10.
Now Joe Philbin, the assistant under fired offensive line coach Larry Beightol, is hired as the new offensive line coach. Plus James Campen will stay as the assistant line coach. Although new offensive coordinator Joe Jagodzinski will introduce a new zone blocking scheme next season, Mike McCarthy has kept two of the previous coaches that coached an assignment blocking scheme. Coaches should be able to teach a variety of schemes, but don't they usually have a preference? If Beightol wasn't good enough to be retained, then why did his assistants get promoted? It is not a problem that Philbin and Campen were kept on with the Packers. The problem is that there doesn't seem to be any plan or philosophy in action. The Packers philosophy, from Ted Thompson on down, is to change everything and see if that improves the team. It doesn't matter if the philosophy fits the current players' abilities. It doesn't matter that every possible candidate for the job is interviewed or if that person is right for the current players.
Although Mike Sherman was fired because Thompson thought it was time for a change, that change does not include the defense. McCarthy wanted Jim Bates to stay as defensive coordinator. McCarthy might even hire defensive line coach Bob Sanders as defensive coordinator. Established mediocre coaches like Dick Jauron and Dave McInnis are expected to interview. Ex-Jets defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson led an average defense in New York last season and runs a "hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense". Nothing against Henderson, but the Packers don't have enough quality linebackers to run a 3-4 defense. Ex-Buffalo defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wouldn't be a bad choice either, although the defense in Buffalo collapsed against the run in 2005. The same could be said of Henderson too. The reasons both Buffalo and the Jets struggled was because they both lost their starting nose tackles (Pat Williams and Jason Ferguson) after the 2004 seasons. If the Packers lose NT Grady Jackson this offseason, then Henderson and Gray would have experience playing without a nose tackle because there is no replacement for Jackson currently on the roster. Keeping Sanders and cornerbacks coach Lionel Washington might be good no matter who is hired, because both the defensive linemen and cornerbacks improved in 2005.
In the end, it looks like Jim Bates left the Packers for the same reasons he left Miami a season ago; he didn't want to stick around a team that passed him up for the head coaching job. Bates will either be hired as a head coach or defensive coordinator within the next two months.
Although Mike Sherman was fired because Thompson thought it was time for a change, that change does not include the defense. McCarthy wanted Jim Bates to stay as defensive coordinator. McCarthy might even hire defensive line coach Bob Sanders as defensive coordinator. Established mediocre coaches like Dick Jauron and Dave McInnis are expected to interview. Ex-Jets defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson led an average defense in New York last season and runs a "hybrid 3-4/4-3 defense". Nothing against Henderson, but the Packers don't have enough quality linebackers to run a 3-4 defense. Ex-Buffalo defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wouldn't be a bad choice either, although the defense in Buffalo collapsed against the run in 2005. The same could be said of Henderson too. The reasons both Buffalo and the Jets struggled was because they both lost their starting nose tackles (Pat Williams and Jason Ferguson) after the 2004 seasons. If the Packers lose NT Grady Jackson this offseason, then Henderson and Gray would have experience playing without a nose tackle because there is no replacement for Jackson currently on the roster. Keeping Sanders and cornerbacks coach Lionel Washington might be good no matter who is hired, because both the defensive linemen and cornerbacks improved in 2005.
In the end, it looks like Jim Bates left the Packers for the same reasons he left Miami a season ago; he didn't want to stick around a team that passed him up for the head coaching job. Bates will either be hired as a head coach or defensive coordinator within the next two months.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
And then defensive coordinator Jim Bates was shown the door. The defense was inconsistant under Bates, but it seems unlikely that the Packers will find a more qualified defensive coordinator to replace him. But with the worst offensive coordinator in the NFL as the Packers new head coach, it is likely that less qualified is what GM Ted Thompson wants as he wrecks the team. I would suggest hiring Emmitt Thomas as the old-is-new-again defensive coordinator. The Packers fired Thomas after the 1999 season, just like Mike McCarthy, and he spent the 2004-05 seasons working in Atlanta, just like new offensive coordinator/former Packers tight ends coach Jeff Jagodzinski.
Jagodzinski already realizes that his number 1 priority is fixing the running game. Jeff Fedotin wrote "To bolster a Packers running game that ranked 30th in the league in 2005, Jagodzinski will implement much of the Broncos' and Falcons' zone blocking scheme. In that system offensive linemen block the first person who enters their zone rather than a specific man. The scheme does not feature a multitude of different plays but relies on athletic players who can execute double team blocks." It was a concern that Jagodzinski might implement the style of blocking used in Atlanta and Denver because the Packers personnel doesn't seem to fit with that style. LT Chad Clifton, RG William Whitticker and RT Mark Tauscher are all bigger than typical Denver/Atlanta offensive lineman. Do the Packers scrap the entire offensive line and start over?
Next season the offense will feature an entirely new blocking system, a first-year starting quarterback, and a number of receivers (WR Javon Walker, WR Terrence Murphy, and TE Bubba Franks) all trying to work themselves back into playing shape after missing almost the entire 2005 season. This could be one of the great train wrecks in football next season. I'm assuming QB Brett Favre retires. Favre can still play and his 2005 wasn't as bad as it seemed, but why would he come back to this mess?
Instead of fixing what was broken in 2005, the Packers appear committed to rebuilding the entire team with coaches who have no record of past success. And they haven't even started with the defense yet.
Jagodzinski already realizes that his number 1 priority is fixing the running game. Jeff Fedotin wrote "To bolster a Packers running game that ranked 30th in the league in 2005, Jagodzinski will implement much of the Broncos' and Falcons' zone blocking scheme. In that system offensive linemen block the first person who enters their zone rather than a specific man. The scheme does not feature a multitude of different plays but relies on athletic players who can execute double team blocks." It was a concern that Jagodzinski might implement the style of blocking used in Atlanta and Denver because the Packers personnel doesn't seem to fit with that style. LT Chad Clifton, RG William Whitticker and RT Mark Tauscher are all bigger than typical Denver/Atlanta offensive lineman. Do the Packers scrap the entire offensive line and start over?
Next season the offense will feature an entirely new blocking system, a first-year starting quarterback, and a number of receivers (WR Javon Walker, WR Terrence Murphy, and TE Bubba Franks) all trying to work themselves back into playing shape after missing almost the entire 2005 season. This could be one of the great train wrecks in football next season. I'm assuming QB Brett Favre retires. Favre can still play and his 2005 wasn't as bad as it seemed, but why would he come back to this mess?
Instead of fixing what was broken in 2005, the Packers appear committed to rebuilding the entire team with coaches who have no record of past success. And they haven't even started with the defense yet.
Monday, January 16, 2006
It is not surprising that Mike McCarthy would not retain any of the coaches still under contract. Special teams coach John Bonamego might have been fired if Mike Sherman had remained as coach because special teams were so bad in 2005. It was disappointing that Larry Beightol wasn't retained as offensive line coach. He had a tough job replacing two Pro Bowl caliber offensive guards with two 7th round draft choices (LG Scott Wells and RG William Whitticker). The two players GM Ted Thompson signed to replace Mike Wahle and Marco Rivera were LG Adrian Klemm and RG Matt O'Dwyer. O'Dwyer had nothing left and was released in the preseason while Klemm was awful and benched by mid-season.
It looks like Jim Bates will be back as defensive coordinator (at least that is what the official Packers site says) but who knows.
It looks like Jim Bates will be back as defensive coordinator (at least that is what the official Packers site says) but who knows.
Sunday, January 15, 2006
Mike McCarthy's first big hire as head coach is the guy fired after the playoff collapse in Philadelphia in 2003. Wow, I'm really excited. Ex-defensive coordinator Ed Donatell was understandably fired after the Packers failed to stop Philadelphia on a late 4th and 26 conversion. Along with Donatell, Jeff Jagodzinski was fired as the tight ends coach. I'm sure everyone not working on the Packers sidelines or front office said "Who?" At the time, TE Bubba Franks was solid but had reached his consistant level of play while TE David Martin hadn't developed.
It is ironic that Jagodzinski ended up in Atlanta, just like Donatell. He was the tight ends coach in 2004, and TE Alge Crumpler developed into a very good tight end. In 2005 he took over as offensive line coach and the line was as good as it was in 2004, according to Football Outsiders. They are a pretty good run blocking line and not good in pass blocking. But with QB Michael Vick in Atlanta, any offensive line's pass blocking stats might be low because Vick is scrambling to make something happen and he isn't a great passer. The offensive line took a big step up from 2003 (only an average run blocking team) and into a top 10 unit when Alex Gibbs arrived. It was big news that Gibbs agreed to coach full-time in 2004 for Atlanta, but it was only a one-year return from his position as consultant. Gibbs can be credited for building the offensive lines in Atlanta and Denver. Jagodzinski can be credited for maintaining the quality on Atlanta's offensive line in 2005, but can't take credit for coaching them into a top 10 unit.
Jagodzinski is not running his offense or calling plays. McCarthy will implement his offense and call all the plays. What strengths does Jagodzinski bring to the Packers? He had worked with Franks and Martin previously and it cannot be expected that he will further improve their play. He spent two years learning what Gibbs knows about offensive lines, but that might not be very helpful. The lines in Denver and Atlanta are two of the best and two of the smallest lines in the NFL. In Atlanta, OG Kynan Forney is the big man at 307 lbs. In Denver, 4 of 5 linemen are under 300 lbs. The Packers have a big offensive line. Both LT Chad Clifton and RG William Whitticker are over 330 lbs. and no offensive lineman that played in 2005 was listed under 300 lbs. Gibbs is known for offensive lineman who are lighter and play with great footwork. It seems unlikely that any coach could turn the current Packers roster of offensive lineman into a unit that resembles Denver or Atlanta.
Are the Packers going to completely start over at offensive line? The Packers need to retool the middle of the line, but Clifton and RT Mark Tauscher are both good tackles. Can Clifton and Tauscher adapt to a new system? Will the Packers trade both players and start over? McCarthy had a big offensive line during his seasons with New Orleans and it would seem that Clifton and Tauscher both would fit in McCarthy's system. If the Packers aren't changing philosophy then what does Jagodzinski bring to the team? Why was he the only candidate interviewed?
It is ironic that Jagodzinski ended up in Atlanta, just like Donatell. He was the tight ends coach in 2004, and TE Alge Crumpler developed into a very good tight end. In 2005 he took over as offensive line coach and the line was as good as it was in 2004, according to Football Outsiders. They are a pretty good run blocking line and not good in pass blocking. But with QB Michael Vick in Atlanta, any offensive line's pass blocking stats might be low because Vick is scrambling to make something happen and he isn't a great passer. The offensive line took a big step up from 2003 (only an average run blocking team) and into a top 10 unit when Alex Gibbs arrived. It was big news that Gibbs agreed to coach full-time in 2004 for Atlanta, but it was only a one-year return from his position as consultant. Gibbs can be credited for building the offensive lines in Atlanta and Denver. Jagodzinski can be credited for maintaining the quality on Atlanta's offensive line in 2005, but can't take credit for coaching them into a top 10 unit.
Jagodzinski is not running his offense or calling plays. McCarthy will implement his offense and call all the plays. What strengths does Jagodzinski bring to the Packers? He had worked with Franks and Martin previously and it cannot be expected that he will further improve their play. He spent two years learning what Gibbs knows about offensive lines, but that might not be very helpful. The lines in Denver and Atlanta are two of the best and two of the smallest lines in the NFL. In Atlanta, OG Kynan Forney is the big man at 307 lbs. In Denver, 4 of 5 linemen are under 300 lbs. The Packers have a big offensive line. Both LT Chad Clifton and RG William Whitticker are over 330 lbs. and no offensive lineman that played in 2005 was listed under 300 lbs. Gibbs is known for offensive lineman who are lighter and play with great footwork. It seems unlikely that any coach could turn the current Packers roster of offensive lineman into a unit that resembles Denver or Atlanta.
Are the Packers going to completely start over at offensive line? The Packers need to retool the middle of the line, but Clifton and RT Mark Tauscher are both good tackles. Can Clifton and Tauscher adapt to a new system? Will the Packers trade both players and start over? McCarthy had a big offensive line during his seasons with New Orleans and it would seem that Clifton and Tauscher both would fit in McCarthy's system. If the Packers aren't changing philosophy then what does Jagodzinski bring to the team? Why was he the only candidate interviewed?
Thursday, January 12, 2006
NOOOOO!!!!! Maybe GM Ted Thompson saw the Producers last weekend and figures if he hires the worst qualified candidate, that candidate will turn into a Broadway hit. Under Mike McCarthy as offensive coordinator, San Francisco had the worst offense in the NFL in 2005.
This is a great day for fans in Minnesota. Chicago was great in 2005, but defense is inconsistant from season to season and Chicago's offense hasn't been a threat since Walter Payton retired. Detroit is a mess. Now the Packers have turned into Detroit version 2.0.
Look at the comparisons between Detroit and the Packers. Personnel decisions are made by former linebackers who played in the 1980s. Thompson and Millen each drafted a Pac-10 quarterback to rebuild the offense after the departure of a Hall of Fame player. They each tapped San Francisco for a mediocre offensive coordinator to lead the team. (Tom Silverstein called Mike McCarthy the next Andy Reid; he's more likely to be the next Marty Mornhinweg).
How bad was rookie QB Alex Smith in San Francisco last season? The worst ever recorded by Football Outsiders. Aaron says Smith was "worse than David Carr when he was sacked every six seconds in 2002, worse than Bobby Hoying when he had no touchdowns in 1998, worse than both of Ryan Leaf's seasons as a starter. Rookie years aren't supposed to be stellar, but there's really no way to spin this as a good thing for the 49ers." What wonders will he do with QB Aaron Rodgers?
All that is left to make the transformation complete is to give Thompson a 5 year extension for flushing the team in the toilet and let him draft a wide receiver with the number one pick in each of the next three drafts. It will be hard for Thompson to find a wide receiver with the fifth overall pick, the only wide receiver with a first round grade so far is WR Santonio Holmes and he isn't being mentioned until pick number 22. Maybe Thompson will do Millen one better and keep drafting quarterbacks if QB Matt Leinart or QB Vince Young fall to the fifth pick.
This is an awful day and the hiring of Mike McCarthy is an awful omen for the future.
This is a great day for fans in Minnesota. Chicago was great in 2005, but defense is inconsistant from season to season and Chicago's offense hasn't been a threat since Walter Payton retired. Detroit is a mess. Now the Packers have turned into Detroit version 2.0.
Look at the comparisons between Detroit and the Packers. Personnel decisions are made by former linebackers who played in the 1980s. Thompson and Millen each drafted a Pac-10 quarterback to rebuild the offense after the departure of a Hall of Fame player. They each tapped San Francisco for a mediocre offensive coordinator to lead the team. (Tom Silverstein called Mike McCarthy the next Andy Reid; he's more likely to be the next Marty Mornhinweg).
How bad was rookie QB Alex Smith in San Francisco last season? The worst ever recorded by Football Outsiders. Aaron says Smith was "worse than David Carr when he was sacked every six seconds in 2002, worse than Bobby Hoying when he had no touchdowns in 1998, worse than both of Ryan Leaf's seasons as a starter. Rookie years aren't supposed to be stellar, but there's really no way to spin this as a good thing for the 49ers." What wonders will he do with QB Aaron Rodgers?
All that is left to make the transformation complete is to give Thompson a 5 year extension for flushing the team in the toilet and let him draft a wide receiver with the number one pick in each of the next three drafts. It will be hard for Thompson to find a wide receiver with the fifth overall pick, the only wide receiver with a first round grade so far is WR Santonio Holmes and he isn't being mentioned until pick number 22. Maybe Thompson will do Millen one better and keep drafting quarterbacks if QB Matt Leinart or QB Vince Young fall to the fifth pick.
This is an awful day and the hiring of Mike McCarthy is an awful omen for the future.
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Tom Silverstein compiled the final list of head coaching candidates. It is not too impressive.
Some bad points about these candidates that Silverstein brought up. Tim Lewis was fired in Pittsburgh two seasons ago for an unknown reason. I had forgotten about when Giants head coach Jim Fassell took away play calling duties from Sean Payton. At the time, it sounded like it was the end of Payton ever having another opportunity in the NFL as an offensive coordinator. A lot of unknowns surround Russ Grimm, but the biggest knock on him is that Detroit's Matt Millen loves him. I've written previously about why Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy should not be hired and Silverstein said Maurice Carthon is not on the short list.
The two best candidates appear to be Jim Bates and Ron Rivera.
There would be little defensive transition with Bates and the defense could build on their improved 2005 season. He quickly turned FS Nick Collins into a promising player and integrated many lesser rookies (LBs Brady Poppinga and Roy Manning, DE Mike Montgomery, and several rookie/little played cornerbacks) into a productive defense. Defensive players play hard for him no matter how hopeless the season looks. His biggest asset is that his defenses in Miami were always among the best in the NFL and the Packers defense had a great pass defense for most of the season and allowed the 7th fewest yards in the league.
Rivera was a key player on Chicago's great defense in the 1980s. He coached Philadelphia linebackers from 1999 to 2003 and has been Chicago's defensive coordinator ever since. He has always played and coached quality defensive teams. He has spent the last seven seasons coaching alongside two of the finest defensive coaches in the NFL; Lovie Smith and Jim Johnson. It might seem important playing for Buddy Ryan in the 1980s, but working for the best and the brightest the NFL has now is more important. He spent a few seasons between his playing and coaching days as a color commentator; which might seem unimportant, but a head coach has to be a good media personality too. Mike Sherman's blow up over cell phone calls during his press conferences this season probably didn't help him keep his job.
It wouldn't be disappointing to read that Jim Bates is the new Packers head coach, but it would be better to hear its Ron Rivera. Hopefully, Ron Rivera is the Packers next head coach.
Some bad points about these candidates that Silverstein brought up. Tim Lewis was fired in Pittsburgh two seasons ago for an unknown reason. I had forgotten about when Giants head coach Jim Fassell took away play calling duties from Sean Payton. At the time, it sounded like it was the end of Payton ever having another opportunity in the NFL as an offensive coordinator. A lot of unknowns surround Russ Grimm, but the biggest knock on him is that Detroit's Matt Millen loves him. I've written previously about why Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy should not be hired and Silverstein said Maurice Carthon is not on the short list.
The two best candidates appear to be Jim Bates and Ron Rivera.
There would be little defensive transition with Bates and the defense could build on their improved 2005 season. He quickly turned FS Nick Collins into a promising player and integrated many lesser rookies (LBs Brady Poppinga and Roy Manning, DE Mike Montgomery, and several rookie/little played cornerbacks) into a productive defense. Defensive players play hard for him no matter how hopeless the season looks. His biggest asset is that his defenses in Miami were always among the best in the NFL and the Packers defense had a great pass defense for most of the season and allowed the 7th fewest yards in the league.
Rivera was a key player on Chicago's great defense in the 1980s. He coached Philadelphia linebackers from 1999 to 2003 and has been Chicago's defensive coordinator ever since. He has always played and coached quality defensive teams. He has spent the last seven seasons coaching alongside two of the finest defensive coaches in the NFL; Lovie Smith and Jim Johnson. It might seem important playing for Buddy Ryan in the 1980s, but working for the best and the brightest the NFL has now is more important. He spent a few seasons between his playing and coaching days as a color commentator; which might seem unimportant, but a head coach has to be a good media personality too. Mike Sherman's blow up over cell phone calls during his press conferences this season probably didn't help him keep his job.
It wouldn't be disappointing to read that Jim Bates is the new Packers head coach, but it would be better to hear its Ron Rivera. Hopefully, Ron Rivera is the Packers next head coach.
Monday, January 09, 2006
Jsonline.com had two stories regarding two different head coaching candidates. First was Ron Rivera. Chicago had the best defense in the NFL last season and they were heading into all-time great territory until the defense struggled in the last couple of games. The coordinator for the best defense in the NFL deserves serious consideration for a head coaching job.
Next up was San Francisco offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. Tom Silverstein is usually pretty good, but some reason he was really pushing McCarthy as a solid candidate. Is McCarthy really a front runner? Silverstein said for "those who think he's a courtesy interview based on his ties to the organization, his credentials should be considered." His credentials are that New Orleans's offense declined every season that McCarthy was their coordinator and in 2005 San Fransisco was easily the worst offense in the NFL. Those are his credentials!!! Don't hire him!
Next up was San Francisco offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. Tom Silverstein is usually pretty good, but some reason he was really pushing McCarthy as a solid candidate. Is McCarthy really a front runner? Silverstein said for "those who think he's a courtesy interview based on his ties to the organization, his credentials should be considered." His credentials are that New Orleans's offense declined every season that McCarthy was their coordinator and in 2005 San Fransisco was easily the worst offense in the NFL. Those are his credentials!!! Don't hire him!
Friday, January 06, 2006
Here's an article with more prospective coaches. Tom Silverstein went into more depth about the "disciples" of Bill Parcells; offensive coordinators Sean Payton and Maurice Carthon.
The first article mentions practically every ex-coach or coordinator who is mentioned in rumors for all the teams looking for a new head coach. Most of the article is about current Packers defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Bates would be a good head coach and he did a good job while he was the interim head coach in Miami during 2004. Overall, Miami didn't have a winning record under Bates, but they did have a big win against 14-2 and Super Bowl champion New England. When it was mentioned that Bates would be interviewed, it seemed like it was just a courtesy and not a real opportunity for Bates. If Bates is a serious candidate and was hired as head coach, he would be a solid hire. Bates certainly deserves a chance over guys like Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy.
Tom Silverstein said Brad Childress is off the market and he will be in Minnesota next season. Childress would have been a good option for the Packers, but there are many good candidates out there like Childress. Of all the coaches mentioned this week, Childress seemed like the best fit in Green Bay because it was rumored he would hire current Packers quarterback coach Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator. Hiring Bevell would help keep QB Brett Favre from retiring and reduce the difficulties in transitioning to a new offensive system next season. It is too bad the Packers could not even get an interview with him.
The first article mentions practically every ex-coach or coordinator who is mentioned in rumors for all the teams looking for a new head coach. Most of the article is about current Packers defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Bates would be a good head coach and he did a good job while he was the interim head coach in Miami during 2004. Overall, Miami didn't have a winning record under Bates, but they did have a big win against 14-2 and Super Bowl champion New England. When it was mentioned that Bates would be interviewed, it seemed like it was just a courtesy and not a real opportunity for Bates. If Bates is a serious candidate and was hired as head coach, he would be a solid hire. Bates certainly deserves a chance over guys like Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy.
Tom Silverstein said Brad Childress is off the market and he will be in Minnesota next season. Childress would have been a good option for the Packers, but there are many good candidates out there like Childress. Of all the coaches mentioned this week, Childress seemed like the best fit in Green Bay because it was rumored he would hire current Packers quarterback coach Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator. Hiring Bevell would help keep QB Brett Favre from retiring and reduce the difficulties in transitioning to a new offensive system next season. It is too bad the Packers could not even get an interview with him.
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Tom Silverstein has the rundown on the coaches being considered by GM Ted Thompson. Wade Phillips is still at the top for some reason. The second name is San Francisco offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. He has past ties to the Packers doncha know. Last season he coordinated the absolute worst offense in the NFL. Hire him immediately. Wait!!! He was the coordinator at New Orleans during QB Aaron Brooks's best seasons!!! Then why did New Orleans's offense continue to get worse the longer McCarthy was the coordinator?
Brad Childress was supposed to interview but apparently Minnesota's front office held him over without bail and he missed his interview in Green Bay. Childress, again, has ties to Wisconsin, coordinating at U. of Wisconsin during the 1990s and he might hire current quarterbacks coach and former Badger great Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator. Philadelphia's offense has been good in recent seasons but they have also had a great quarterback. He didn't do much to turn QB Mike McMahon into a good NFL quarterback, but that might have been asking for a miracle. If Childress escapes Minnesota, he would be preferable to Phillips or McCarthy.
Two "disciples" of Bill Parcells, Sean Payton and Maurice Carthon, are also set for interviews. Both coordinators led offenses that didn't produce a positive DVOA last season. Are these really two successful coaches who deserve a chance as a head coach or are they trending because they worked with Parcells?
How about waiting for the season to end and interviewing some coordinators who did some great work this season? How about Bob Bratkowski? He has ties to the Packers too and has groomed a great young quarterback in QB Carson Palmer. Denver has been consistently one of the best offenses for many seasons and Gary Kubiak has had a large part in their success. It would be preferable to hire a good offensive minded head coach (offense is more consistant from season-to-season then defense), but there are good defensive coaches to talk about too. There has been talk of interviewing Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. How about talking to Jacksonville's defensive coordinator Mike Smith? These are just names off the top of my head. Who knows if any of them would make a good head coach.
When former GM Ron Wolf was looking for a head coach, possibilities included previously successful head coaches like Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Parcells. Even Ray Rhodes had been a proven winner before his single season meltdown. Mike Holmgren was a successful offensive coordinator in San Francisco before coming to Green Bay. Now we've got Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy.
Brad Childress was supposed to interview but apparently Minnesota's front office held him over without bail and he missed his interview in Green Bay. Childress, again, has ties to Wisconsin, coordinating at U. of Wisconsin during the 1990s and he might hire current quarterbacks coach and former Badger great Darrell Bevell as offensive coordinator. Philadelphia's offense has been good in recent seasons but they have also had a great quarterback. He didn't do much to turn QB Mike McMahon into a good NFL quarterback, but that might have been asking for a miracle. If Childress escapes Minnesota, he would be preferable to Phillips or McCarthy.
Two "disciples" of Bill Parcells, Sean Payton and Maurice Carthon, are also set for interviews. Both coordinators led offenses that didn't produce a positive DVOA last season. Are these really two successful coaches who deserve a chance as a head coach or are they trending because they worked with Parcells?
How about waiting for the season to end and interviewing some coordinators who did some great work this season? How about Bob Bratkowski? He has ties to the Packers too and has groomed a great young quarterback in QB Carson Palmer. Denver has been consistently one of the best offenses for many seasons and Gary Kubiak has had a large part in their success. It would be preferable to hire a good offensive minded head coach (offense is more consistant from season-to-season then defense), but there are good defensive coaches to talk about too. There has been talk of interviewing Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. How about talking to Jacksonville's defensive coordinator Mike Smith? These are just names off the top of my head. Who knows if any of them would make a good head coach.
When former GM Ron Wolf was looking for a head coach, possibilities included previously successful head coaches like Marty Schottenheimer and Bill Parcells. Even Ray Rhodes had been a proven winner before his single season meltdown. Mike Holmgren was a successful offensive coordinator in San Francisco before coming to Green Bay. Now we've got Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy.
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Why was Mike Sherman fired? Because it was "time to make a change." Great vision for the team's future. GM Ted Thompson apparently doesn't have any idea of what to do after a 4-12 season except start firing coaches. Does anybody remember why Thompson was hired?
I was curious whether Thompson would look for a new coach among the up-and-coming coordinators or through the old boys network. Apparently the answer is the old boys network. The above linked article said twice-failed ex-Buffalo and ex-Denver head coach Wade Phillips is at the top of the line. He failed three times if you count his interim head coaching job in Atlanta during 2003. Maybe the team can interview Dennis Erickson next week. Now we just need to hire Matt Millen to take over for Bob Harlan as team President.
I was curious whether Thompson would look for a new coach among the up-and-coming coordinators or through the old boys network. Apparently the answer is the old boys network. The above linked article said twice-failed ex-Buffalo and ex-Denver head coach Wade Phillips is at the top of the line. He failed three times if you count his interim head coaching job in Atlanta during 2003. Maybe the team can interview Dennis Erickson next week. Now we just need to hire Matt Millen to take over for Bob Harlan as team President.
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Packers 23, Seattle 17. It was nice to beat the probable NFC Super Bowl representative, but Seattle rested many players and their strategy on offense involved making sure RB Shaun Alexander won the rushing title and set the all-time record for TDs scored in a season. It was an ususual game for the Packers because they committed three turnovers but none of them hurt (they led to zero points for Seattle) while the two turnovers by Seattle led directly to 10 points for the Packers. That was something that had not happened all season.
Any positive sign during the game was gone by Tuesday when Mike Sherman was fired. It was expected; Mike Sherman was not hired by GM Ted Thompson and Sherman had been unable to win in Green Bay the last two seasons. Although the Packers fell apart in Baltimore three weeks ago, the losses at home to Minnesota and Chicago were just as bad. Thompson was vague about why he fired Sherman saying "this was more thinking in terms of where we are and where we need to get to." It seems like Thompson just wanted to hire his own man and make the team his team.
There are more reasons not to like the firing than to like it. Thompson hasn't proved that he knows what he is doing. He damaged the offensive line by letting Rivera and Wahle leave in free agency and replaced them with the awful Klemm and the forgotten O'Dwyer. Plus he didn't address the offensive line until the 5th round in the 2005 draft. FS Nick Collins has shown some promise, but he has to continue to improve to be considered a good draft choice. G William Whitticker started almost all 16 games this season, but he is not guaranteed a starting job in 2006 and was deactived for a game just a couple of weeks ago. QB Aaron Rodgers could make this draft class all by himself, but he could make it a bust too. All the other players drafted in 2005 haven't shown anything other than the ability to be part-time players. Although it is far too early to grade the 2005 draft class, Thompson hasn't proven anything yet.
Sherman had proven that he could create a top 10 offense in every season as a head coach, except for this disappointing season. Is it Sherman's fault that RB Ahman Green was out after week 6? Is it Sherman's fault that the Packers couldn't run the ball with Green because the offensive line was such a mess? Did any opposing defense really try to stop RB Samkon Gado or did they all focus on stopping QB Brett Favre? Sherman wasn't perfect; he couldn't develop a good special teams and he didn't draft well for depth in the three seasons he was GM. Sherman deserves some blame for the 4-12 season, but its not all his blame. It seems likely that this firing will push the Packers back a couple steps before they step forward.
This seems likely to push Favre out the door. Favre has said he doesn't want to start over on a new team, and the Packers should feel like a new team in 2006. Rodgers committed a lot of turnovers during his brief opportunities in 2005. It seems unlikely that a switch from Favre to Rodgers will improve the team in 2006.
Looking back at the last two seasons, six of the ten teams that changed head coaches improved by only one or two games in the season after the change. Atlanta improved from 5-11 in 2003 to 11-5 in 2004, but that was mostly due to the return of QB Michael Vick from a 2003 leg injury. Miami improved from 4-12 in 2004 to 9-7 in 2005, but everything that could go wrong went wrong for Miami in 2004. The Packers might be comparable to Miami; they fired a winning coach after a disaster season and rebounded to a winning record the next season. Is Thompson going to hire this season's Nick Saban?
Thompson hasn't been around long enough to show a preference for established coaches vs. inexperienced coaches. Does he want to choose a coach from the old-boys network like Steve Mariucci or Dick Jauron? Does he want to hire a coordinator who had never been a head coach? Does he want to hire a top college coach?
It is really interesting that the AP reported that New York Giants defensive coordinator Tim Lewis may be a candidate. I hadn't realized that Tim Lewis was the same Tim Lewis that played for the Packers in the 80s. I have no idea if Lewis would be a good head coach. Lewis was one of the few bright spots in the dark mid-80s for the Packers, until a neck injury ended his career early.
Everything regarding the Packers will be just speculation until a new coach is hired and Favre makes his announcement regarding retirement. Then everything will have to be reevaluated.
Any positive sign during the game was gone by Tuesday when Mike Sherman was fired. It was expected; Mike Sherman was not hired by GM Ted Thompson and Sherman had been unable to win in Green Bay the last two seasons. Although the Packers fell apart in Baltimore three weeks ago, the losses at home to Minnesota and Chicago were just as bad. Thompson was vague about why he fired Sherman saying "this was more thinking in terms of where we are and where we need to get to." It seems like Thompson just wanted to hire his own man and make the team his team.
There are more reasons not to like the firing than to like it. Thompson hasn't proved that he knows what he is doing. He damaged the offensive line by letting Rivera and Wahle leave in free agency and replaced them with the awful Klemm and the forgotten O'Dwyer. Plus he didn't address the offensive line until the 5th round in the 2005 draft. FS Nick Collins has shown some promise, but he has to continue to improve to be considered a good draft choice. G William Whitticker started almost all 16 games this season, but he is not guaranteed a starting job in 2006 and was deactived for a game just a couple of weeks ago. QB Aaron Rodgers could make this draft class all by himself, but he could make it a bust too. All the other players drafted in 2005 haven't shown anything other than the ability to be part-time players. Although it is far too early to grade the 2005 draft class, Thompson hasn't proven anything yet.
Sherman had proven that he could create a top 10 offense in every season as a head coach, except for this disappointing season. Is it Sherman's fault that RB Ahman Green was out after week 6? Is it Sherman's fault that the Packers couldn't run the ball with Green because the offensive line was such a mess? Did any opposing defense really try to stop RB Samkon Gado or did they all focus on stopping QB Brett Favre? Sherman wasn't perfect; he couldn't develop a good special teams and he didn't draft well for depth in the three seasons he was GM. Sherman deserves some blame for the 4-12 season, but its not all his blame. It seems likely that this firing will push the Packers back a couple steps before they step forward.
This seems likely to push Favre out the door. Favre has said he doesn't want to start over on a new team, and the Packers should feel like a new team in 2006. Rodgers committed a lot of turnovers during his brief opportunities in 2005. It seems unlikely that a switch from Favre to Rodgers will improve the team in 2006.
Looking back at the last two seasons, six of the ten teams that changed head coaches improved by only one or two games in the season after the change. Atlanta improved from 5-11 in 2003 to 11-5 in 2004, but that was mostly due to the return of QB Michael Vick from a 2003 leg injury. Miami improved from 4-12 in 2004 to 9-7 in 2005, but everything that could go wrong went wrong for Miami in 2004. The Packers might be comparable to Miami; they fired a winning coach after a disaster season and rebounded to a winning record the next season. Is Thompson going to hire this season's Nick Saban?
Thompson hasn't been around long enough to show a preference for established coaches vs. inexperienced coaches. Does he want to choose a coach from the old-boys network like Steve Mariucci or Dick Jauron? Does he want to hire a coordinator who had never been a head coach? Does he want to hire a top college coach?
It is really interesting that the AP reported that New York Giants defensive coordinator Tim Lewis may be a candidate. I hadn't realized that Tim Lewis was the same Tim Lewis that played for the Packers in the 80s. I have no idea if Lewis would be a good head coach. Lewis was one of the few bright spots in the dark mid-80s for the Packers, until a neck injury ended his career early.
Everything regarding the Packers will be just speculation until a new coach is hired and Favre makes his announcement regarding retirement. Then everything will have to be reevaluated.