Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Packers 27, New Orleans 34. I'm at a loss to say about this game. All the indicators either favor the Packers (fewer turnovers, more total yards, better % on 3rd downs) or are even (both teams struggled to run the ball, similar time of possession). New Orleans had more plays over 20 yards and as a result had one more scoring drive. Two home losses to start the season, this time against an inferior team.

First Quarter: The Packers pass rush took over the game and WR Greg Jennings made the first big play of his career. DE Aaron Kampman dominated on the first two possessions, taking an active part in both QB Drew Brees fumbles. Pressure from DE KGB and DT Cullen Jenkins created both fumbles. After CB Al Harris made a great circus catch for the third New Orleans turnover, the Packers had a 13-0 lead. LB A.J. Hawk continues to look better; on one running play he fought off a block from the right tackle and the tight end to stop a running play for no gain. However two things happened the rest of the game; New Orleans had no more turnovers and the Packers pass rush vanished.

Second Quarter: Four punts on offense and the defense couldn't stop New Orleans on 3rd down. New Orleans had about 10 1st down conversions during the quarter and drove down for two TD scores. CB Ahmad Carroll gave up the 2nd TD pass; it was his first play back after coming off the field injured, but he was caught looking into the backfield and Brees burned him.

Third Quarter: A great first drive was ruined when QB Brett Favre threw his only interception in the end zone. It wasn't a bad decision by Favre, he just got hit while he was throwing. Almost immediately, WR Joe Horn had a big 50+ yard reception when he beat LB Brady Poppinga (Bob Sanders really screwed up the coverage by having Poppinga cover their no. 1 receiver in the slot) that led to a field goal and swung all momentum back to New Orleans. After a disasterous first quarter for New Orleans, 6 of their next 9 possessions led to scores. Dropped passes are a huge problem for the Packers. The Packers have gotten little out of their receivers not named WR Donald Driver so far this season, but TEs Bubba Franks and David Martin had some good receptions in the second half and both WRs Jennings and Robert Ferguson caught TD passes in this game. It is starting to look better.

Fourth Quarter: FS Nick Collins got burned in coverage as WR Marques Colston ran by him into the end zone. Collins reminds me of FS Darren Sharper, who struggled in his first two seasons as he transitioned from small William and Mary college to the NFL. It looks like it will be at least two seasons of inconsistent play from Collins until he is playing at a high level. Then RB Ahman Green fumbled leading to a 25 yard TD run by RB Deuce McAlister. G Daryn Colledge got his first NFL start ahead of G Jason Spitz in this game, and he didn't look great. Both rookies, Colledge and RG Tony Moll, struggled at times. Overall, it is a lot to be asking of these guys to start immediately as rookies. G Mike Wahle looked like a bust in his first couple of NFL seasons and G Marco Rivera didn't start in his first NFL season. They might be good players but it won't be known for at least a couple of seasons. Green looked good in his first game back against Chicago, but really struggled in this games. He ran for only 2.6 yards/carry, he had this fumble, and he dropped at least two passes in the 2nd half. McAlister's big TD run was really surprising at this point, because it was the only run over 10 yards for New Orleans during the entire game. The Packers run defense has shut down the running game of two good run offenses so far this season. Unfortunately, everyone will throw the ball against the Packers because they aren't good in coverage and they have almost zero pass rush in the middle.

If the Packers can't beat New Orleans at home, then who can they beat? The next two games at Detroit and at Philadelphia look like losses and then a home game against St. Louis. They should beat St. Louis as their offense is really playing poorly so far this season. At best, it looks like a 1-4 record going into the bye week with a real possibility at 0-5.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

It has been a wild week, with the Packers seemingly panicing after a poor start. These are moves that should have been made during training camp or the preseason. First WR Koren Robinson is picked up, hopefully to be used only as a kick returner, and FB Vonta Leach is released to make room for Robinson. It was surprising to see Leach even make it on the final roster because he didn't play great last season and didn't look good during this preseason, but he was kept because of the injury to FB William Henderson. Now Henderson is back for New Orleans, and since there are no other full backs on the roster, TE David Martin will make the switch to full back. Wasn't this contemplated at all during the preseason when Leach was playing his way off the roster?

The Packers apparently sold high and received a previously well regarded running back in return for RB Samkon Gado. Gado looked good last season, but didn't play well at all in the preseason. RB Vernand Morency was highly regarded before the 2005 NFL draft, but a 4.66 40-yard dash time dropped him into the 3rd round. Now Houston's new coach Gary Kubiak doesn't like his running style, and out the door he goes. It is hard to get excited about a running back who has below average speed and a bad running style, but it wouldn't have been surprising to have seen Gado released so at least the Packers received something in return. The big problem is that behind RB Ahman Green now is the unimpressive RB Noah Herron followed by a new running back (Morency) who probably has to learn a whole new offense.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Packers 0, Chicago 26. Well that was an ass-kicking. Looking at the stats, there was not any one area where the Packers lost. Watching the game, there was not one area where it was obvious that the Packers were overmatched. Chicago did not dominate, but they slightly outplayed and outcoached the Packers in every way, and it led to a really lopsided score.

It was a lot more similar to the loss in week 16 last season when Chicago won at Lambeau 24 to 17. If you look at the stats, QB Brett Favre had an awful game and the Packers couldn't run the ball. But they managed to string together one TD drive and a punt return for a TD by WR Antonio Chatman made the score a lot closer than the game actually was.

It was good to see RB Ahman Green return. He was able to run throughout the game, and not just during the second half when Chicago's defense was sitting back on the pass. Theoretically, the Packers were holding back showing off Mike McCarthy's real offensive playbook until this game, so this was the first time the offense played in a game situation with it. Unfortunately, they had to try it out against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Favre's passes looked high and it appeared that Favre and his receivers (excepting WR Donald Driver) were not on the same page.

This is apparently why the Packers paniced right after the game to sign the recently arrested WR Koren Robinson. It seems unlikely that Robinson will become a part of the passing game anytime soon, but can probably take over for Noah Herron immediately on kick returns. After the disasterous last preseason game when the special teams collapsed, they improved to awful with a missed field goal, a kick return fumble, and they allowed a kick return for a touchdown. CB Charles Woodson was finally used on punt returns and had one good return. The special teams directly cost the Packers 10 points in the loss and must improve.

The defense struggled to keep Chicago off the field in the first half and let Chicago build an early lead. S Marquand Manuel struggled again with a blown coverage that led to the long TD pass to WR Bertrand Berrion. CB Al Harris struggled against WR Muhsin Muhammad early and LB Brady Poppinga was completely overmatched in pass coverage by TE Desmond Clark. The Packers hadn't struggled against number 1 WR due to the great play of Harris, but getting burned by the tight end is something that has plagued the Packers for many seasons now. If a game ball is awarded, it would go to DE Aaron Kampman who had a great game. Honorable mention goes to the Packers run defense which held Chicago to only 3 yards per carry, which was a big improvement since RB Thomas Jones ran all over them last season.

Thursday, September 07, 2006

What record should the Packers predict in 2006? Football Outsiders didn't predict the Packers record, but predicted that the Packers DVOA would be -13.4% and the 24th best in the league. That is behind Chicago and Detroit, but ahead of Minnesota. Looking back at FO's 2005 predictions, they calculated the Packers, Minnesota, and Detroit would compete for the division title, while Chicago would be in last place, so their 2006 projection is taken with a grain of salt. In 2006, FO calculated the Packers would have the 23rd offense, 22nd defense, and 26th special teams. The key column is the Packers schedule ranking; they play the 2nd easiest schedule.

The Packers offense might only be the 23rd best in 2006. The offensive line is still a work in progress, although better now than it was at the beginning of last season, but maybe worse than it was at the end of last season. If QB Brett Favre doesn't reduce the number of turnovers, then they could easily be that bad. The defense could be better than 22nd best, but the secondary has looked awful in the preseason. The special teams fell apart during the last preseason game, but most of the awful players (such as WR Cory Rodgers) have been released, while P Jon Ryan looks like a major upgrade over P B.J. Sander and K Dave Rayner will at least help the Packers improve their field position. With so many new starters (including at least 4 rookies), it is likely the team will be mediocre.

However, the saving grace is the Packers schedule. If the Packers at least beat the teams that project with an even lower DVOA than the Packers, then the Packers will finish 6-10 with home wins against New Orleans, St. Louis, N.Y. Jets, and Minnesota, plus road wins at Minnesota and San Francisco. If the Packers return to their traditional dominance with a win at Chicago (assuming they still lose at home and split the season series), their usual home win against Detroit, and another home win against Arizona, then their record would be 9-7. That seems reasonable with losses at Detroit, Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, and Seattle, plus home losses against Chicago and New England.

Unfortunately, the easiest schedule in the NFL belongs to Chicago, who would finish 15-1 (only Seattle projects with a higher DVOA) if they beat all the teams they should beat. Assuming Chicago finishes in first place, then the Packers 9-7 record is probably not good enough for the wild card (usually 10 wins is required). Four teams had 9-7 records last season, and none of them made the playoffs. It doesn't matter if the Packers finish 6-10 or 9-7, the Packers are unlikely to make it back to the playoffs in 2006.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

The Packers made a couple of moves after other teams cut their rosters down to 53. First was releasing CB Jason Horton, who had returned an interception for a touchdown against Atlanta, but looked overmatched against Tennessee. If anyone was hoping for an CB Ahmad Carroll release, then they have a long wait ahead. With Horton's release and CB Mike Hawkins on the PUP list, the only corners on the roster behind Carroll are two rookies, CB Will Blackmon and the recently signed CB Jarrett Bush. Carroll would have to completely fall apart on the field to fall behind two rookies at this point.

The Packers picked up three players. Bush appeared to receive a lot of playing time with Carolina this preseason, and since Blackmon hasn't played since May due to a broken foot, Bush is the "experienced" 4th CB at this point. G Tony Palmer was picked up from St. Louis for depth at a shaky offensive guard position, but that was an odd move. The new zone blocking scheme is designed for smaller more athletic guards, but Palmer is a 326 lb. giant. S Charlie Peprah adds depth to a thin safety position with all the current safeties having suffered injuries recently, except S Tyrone Culver.

The Packers made up their practice squad too. CB Patrick Dendy and S Atari Bigby have some experience if any of the secondary's injuries persist. The best news was signing DE Dave Tollefson, who had a good preseason and deserves to stick with the team in some capacity.

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Preseason Packers 21, Tennessee 35. It was an ugly game as Tennessee kept its starters in for most of the game, while the Packers starting defense played 3 snaps and the offense 2 snaps. WR Greg Jennings cemented his status as the star of the preseason with another huge reception and a starting job over WR Robert Ferguson.

No one looked very good after the starters left the field. Starting rookie OGs Jason Spitz and Tony Moll played most of the game, but Moll struggled early when a Tennessee tackle beat him inside and led to a QB Aaron Rodgers fumble. DT Kendrick Allen started ahead of DT Cullen Jenkins for the first time this preseason, but that doesn't seem to indicate much as the Packers plan on rotating at least five players (maybe six if DT Johnny Jolly is active each week) at the tackle position. S Tyrone Culver forced a fumble in the red zone, the only Tennessee turnover. Culver has looked good this preseason and should start over S Marquand Manuel who was awful in the only game he played in this preseason. However, Manuel is the big free agent while Culver is the rookie, so Manuel will start week 1.

The Packers could have cut anybody this week that was not expected to start and it wouldn't have been a surprise. The special teams were awful against Tennessee, with the exception of P Jon Ryan's giant punts. The kick coverage was bad and WR Cory Rodgers and Carlton Brewster couldn't hand on to the ball. The Packers said they were looking for big wide receivers when they signed and resigned WR Marc Boehringer and Rod Gardner, but neither made the roster and the star of the preseason was 5'11" WR Jennings. WR Ruvell Martin made a couple of nice catches and that was apparently enough to make the team as the number 4 WR with Boehringer and Gardner underperforming and Rodgers and Brewster showing bad hands.

The biggest news was the release of RB Najeh Davenport, but it shouldn't surprise anybody because he didn't play well. He didn't run well, but his pass blocking was awful. LB Roy Manning played as well as anybody in the 2nd half against Tennessee, but he couldn't beat out LBs Brady Poppinga or Tracy White. It wouldn't have been a surprise if any one of the three had been released. DE Dave Tollefson was a slightly surprising release, but he didn't show as much as much speed as DE Jason Hunter so potential beat out production. QB Ingle Martin got his first extended playing time and looked awful. The pass he threw that was intercepted was laughably bad. The Packers cannot go into a game this season with Martin as the number 2 QB and hope he improves as the season progresses. The Packers could have cut all of the backup cornerbacks and it wouldn't have been a surprise, but they have to keep somebody in reserve.

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Preseason Packers 17, Cincinnati 48. It reminded me of the game last season on Monday Night Football at Baltimore, where the secondary gave up and made it look like QB Kyle Boller was headed for the Pro Bowl.

The first half started out bad with two QB Brett Favre turnovers, first a fumble than an interception. The turnovers weren't so much a sign that Favre is going to have trouble this season, but that the blocking isn't very good yet. On the fumble, S Dexter Jackson came through unblocked on the screen pass to RB Ahman Green, FB Vonta Leach was late to pick him up Jackson, which forced Favre to try and hold back the ball, but it slipped out of his hand. Then on the interception, Favre was hit immediately after he threw it. It appeared the defensive end beat T Chad Clifton. Clifton looked good during the first two preseason games, but he struggled and had at least one penalty called against him in this game. Everyone, from the rookie linemen to the veteran linemen, to the backs are having trouble blocking right now.

The first string run defense looked good, holding RB Rudi Johnson to under 3 yards per carry. The nose tackle rotation of Ryan Pickett and Kendrick Allen appears to be an improvement over Grady Jackson. The pass defense failed the team. CB Charles Woodson looked good earlier in the preseason, but WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh abused him. Houshmandzadeh caught two first down catches and a TD pass on their first scoring drive of the 2nd quarter. S Marquand Manuel looked even worse. It was Manuel's first preseason game, after missing most of the preseason and training camp with an injury, but he was involved in the coverage on the all three of QB Carson Palmer's first half TD passes. Manuel played way off TE Reggie Kelly for an easy TD pass. Then he took a bad angle and completely missed Housemandzadeh on his TD reception. Then he missed covering WR Tad Perry in the end zone. He was either overmatched or still recovering from his injury. If the season started today, S Tyrone Culver would have to be considered that starter over Manuel.

The Packers overhauled four areas of the team this offseason. The linebackers are looking better with LB A.J. Hawk always around the ball. K Dave Rayner and P Jon Ryan look good so far, with Rayner hitting at least one touchback (an unheard of event in the K Ryan Longwell era) and Ryan nailing a 60 yard punt and pinning one punt at the 10 yard line. The new blocking scheme appears to still be a work in progress, despite the starting lineup already being named, and the secondary does not look any better than last season.

The Packers made a few moves after the game, but none of the players cut were likely to make the team. It was surprising Ted Thompson signed a kicker after Rayner had a good game, but it does give the Packers a back up plan if Rayner falls apart in the last preseason game. One last preseason game to put it all together, before a big test week 1 vs. Chicago.

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Preseason Packers 38, Atlanta 10. What a difference a week makes. The big difference was a much improved offensive line and lots of forced turnovers. It was only one week, so it is hard to tell how much it helped to have rookie G Tony Moll playing instead of G Daryn Colledge. The offensive line might have been helped by simply having another week of practice or by playing against Atlanta's average pass rush instead of San Diego's top 5 pass rush. It didn't matter to Mike McCarthy; Moll will be the starting guard week 1. Neither Cincinnati nor Tennessee have above average defenses, so it is likely that Moll won't do anything to lose his spot over the next two preseason games. Other than Moll, there are a few other players who deserve attention:

WR Greg Jennings. He played well at San Diego by catching four passes when the rest of the offense struggled. He really showed off against Atlanta. He is clearly the number three wide receiver. WR Robert Ferguson should be watching carefully to make sure he doesn't lose his starting job to Jennings.

WRs Marc Boehringer and Rod Gardner. They are right behind Jennings on the depth chart, but neither caught a pass against Atlanta. Boehringer's poor performance apparently led to his release. The Packers traded for WR Carlton Brewster to see what he can do. The Packers gave up CB Therrian Fontenot for Brewster, but Fontenot had not done much on the field to show he was a likely candidate for a final roster spot.

SS Tyrone Culver. With the season ending injury to S Marviel Underwood and S Marquand Manuel still hurt, Culver had a lot of playing time. He apparently played the entire game in San Diego; he didn't make any big plays, but he didn't give up any either and made some big hits. During the second quarter against Atlanta, he missed a coverage assignment. Two plays later, he intercepted QB Michael Vick's pass. In the first two preseason games, he has looked better than last season's SS Mark Roman looked in any game that Roman started.

FB Vonta Leach. With FB William Henderson out for the rest of the preseason, Leach is the man. The AP article mentioned Leach dropped a touchdown pass, but he also dropped another pass earlier in the game. He dropped 2 of QB Aaron Rodgers 3 incompletions. During 2005, Leach looked great at times, and at other times he missed his assignments. Leach will be counted on much more in 2006 and needs to show improvement.

G Siitupe Peko. He missed at least two blocking assignments in the 4th quarter; one of which led to Rodgers's fumble. I hadn't seen Peko in a game yet this preseason, but if Moll doesn't work out at right guard, then Peko doesn't look like he is Plan B. He has a good resume, but it was surprising he wasn't cut after his poor performance on Saturday.

P B.J. Sander. He was awful in San Diego, but looked better on Saturday. He showed improvement, but he was cut anyway. Sander has been such a disappointment that this isn't a big surprise. However, he wasn't released because rookie P Jon Ryan was playing outstanding. Ryan looked good in San Diego, but he dropped the snap in the end zone and barely got his only punt attempt away.

DE Mike Montgomery. He looked good last preseason, and he is looking good this preseason too with 2 sacks in the 4th quarter against Atlanta. He didn't play much in 2005, but hopefully he brings his preseason performance into the regular season during 2006.

Friday, August 18, 2006

K Billy Cundiff was cut, leaving 2nd year K Dave Rayner as the only kicker in camp. Neither kicker had much of an opportunity in the first preseason game, so it is hard to tell whether this was a good decision, but it does add to the list of puzzling decisions made by the Packers. Tom Silverstein reported that Cundiff "missed fewer field goals than Rayner and in the most recent kickoff drill in practice averaged 66.8 yards to Rayner's 60.1." So lately, Cundiff had outkicked Rayner, but Cundiff was cut? Mike McCarthy explains all when he said "[Rayner] has a strong leg. I think he has a winner's substance to him. I like his personality, I like his approach." McCarthy likes Rayner's "winner's substance" and that apparently trumped Cundiff's superior performance in practice. Brilliant.

Wednesday, August 16, 2006

QB Brett Favre's possible retirement always seems to hinge on whether he is still having fun. It doesn't sound like he is having a lot of fun this training camp. QB Aaron Rodgers, age 22, said "his daughter (Brittany) is almost 18, so I'm closer to her age than to his age. But we still can have a good time and joke around." Aaron means he is joking around with Brett not Brittany, right? I'm sure he does.

OG Daryn Colledge was given no slack for his poor performance in San Diego. He is 2nd team, G Jason Spitz (who didn't play well either) is the new left guard, and rookie OL Tony Moll is the new right guard. At this point, it would seem likely that OLs Will Whitticker or Junius Coston would be a better option than Moll. If not, then WR Javon Walker was traded for the rights to Colledge, so it would seem reasonable to give Colledge at least one more chance before demoting him. Promoting Moll just seems desperate. Rookies are unlikely to play well no matter the position, which is why Whitticker or Coston would be more likley to succeed than Moll. But Whitticker's career with the Packers seems over, Coston's future appears to be at tackle, and Plan B if Moll doesn't work out appears to be "Mookie". Injuries and poor play has turned the project of revamping the offensive line into a disaster, so far.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

The Packers didn't play well in their first preseason game, but they had only one fumble (recovered), one interception, and four penalties. This really stood out from last season, when the Packers made a lot of mistakes in the preseason. The Packers should have lost their preseason game last season versus San Diego, but managed to win despite nine penalties and six(!) fumbles (3 lost). San Diego outplayed the Packers, but San Diego committed twelve penalties and a few of them were true gifts to the Packers from the refs.

The Packers only played mistake-free football last preseason at Buffalo (except that they were soundly beaten), and they committed a lot of penalties and turnovers against Tennessee and New England. Somehow they managed to go 2-2 last preseason, despite being outplayed during most of those games and making a lot of mistakes via turnovers and penalties. The Packers played better during the 2005 regular season than the preseason, but the turnovers persisted. The Packers managed to improve their penalties and finished near the middle in penalties.

Despite the beating the Packers took at San Diego on Saturday, the quality of play is very likely to improve if 2005 is an indication. What to look for during this preseason is that QB Brett Favre keeps his interceptions low (zero so far), the rookies are improving with each game, and who will win the final roster spots.

Luckily for the Packers, S Marquand Manuel is back in practice. The Packers released S Mark Roman because S Marviel Underwood was playing so well, but with Underwood out for the season, depth at safety has become a concern. S Tyrone Culver played well against San Diego, but he has become all the depth the Packers have at the position. Hopefully DT Kendrick Allen can come back soon. The Packers defensive line didn't look much improved at San Diego, but NT Ryan Pickett and Allen weren't playing either.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Preseason Packers 3, San Diego 17. It looked really bad. The offense couldn't get anything going, until QB Aaron Rodgers came on to lead the team in rushing and abuse San Diego's 3rd string secondary. The defense allowed big plays early and then the 2nd string defense couldn't stop San Diego on 3rd down (63% converted for the game). There are some positives, but they were overshadowed by how badly the Packers were beaten.

Yes, the offensive line was horrible. C Scott Wells said we can't blame the system, but it is new to everybody at this point and it probably was a big part of the problem. G Daryn Colledge blew an early pass blocking assignment and QB Brett Favre got leveled. G Jason Spitz blew at least two early run blocking assignments. However, the rookies were not the only problem. T Mark Tauscher got fooled on a linebacker stunt and Favre got leveled again. RB Najeh Davenport got the start but he didn't run well and he missed two blitz pickups who went on to hit Favre both times. The blockers couldn't open any rushing lanes or protect Favre. The second unit struggled too. G Junius Coston is now the back up left tackle and allowed at least one sack on Rodgers. Coston deserves some slack since he has been playing left tackle in the NFL for only the last week. Everybody has a lot to learn and everybody played horrible. It will only get better.

Yes, the defense wasn't good either. LB A.J. Hawk got beaten badly on a slant route, but it was by the best tight end in the NFL, TE Antonio Gates. Tight ends feasted on the defense; catching 11 passes for the game, but that has been a problem for this defense for the last couple of seasons. Hawk was much better after the first quarter. The defensive line wasn't great, but QB Phillip Rivers was throwing a lot of quick passes to avoid sacks and San Diego didn't run the ball very well (outside of one 13 yard TD run at the end of a long drive). Overall, the defensive line played well considering new NT Ryan Pickett didn't play. Rivers abused the entire Packer secondary except CB Charles Woodson. CB Al Harris struggled and CB Ahmad Carroll had a bad game too. Carroll could have been called for interference a couple of times, but wasn't. Also, he allowed the TD pass in the 1st quarter, but it was a perfect pass from Rivers and probably couldn't have been defended by anyone in the NFL. The biggest problems were 63% of 3rd downs were converted against them and they forced no turnovers.

There wasn't a lot of place kicking, but K Dave Rayner kicked at least one kickoff in the end zone and K Billy Cundiff made his short field goal attempt. If there was a punting battle on Saturday, then P B.J. Sander lost it bad. Sander's punt all seemed short and low, while P Jon Ryan had all his kicks travel farther than Sander's longest punt and his 55 yard punt sent the punt returner back several yards. Ryan would have to fall apart during the rest of the preseason to lose the job to Sander.

Friday, August 11, 2006

The Packers must know there aren't many experienced free agent offensive lineman looking for work now. Signing G "Mookie" Moore doesn't hurt, but he apparently can't stay healthy and hasn't played tackle, where the Packers have little depth. It is unlikely he will start the season with the team. If T Todd Wade passed a physical, then he would have been a better signing. There is no need to panic, because the players two lost players (T Adrian Klemm and T Kevin Barry) weren't that good anyway. It is likely that rookie T Tony Moll would play just as well as Klemm or Barry. Besides, there are very few NFL teams that have three quality offensive tackles and some don't even have two like the Packers, so it isn't as if the Packers are at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the NFL. If Ts Chad Clifton or Mark Tauscher are hurt this season, then the Packers are in trouble no matter what rookie or street free agent they play in their place.

The most important starting battle this preseason is at kicker and punter. P B.J. Sander wasn't teaching a clinic on holding last season, but his biggest sin was that he didn't punt very well. K Ryan Longwell's replacement has to be better at kickoffs than him. What ended Longwell's career in Green Bay was his inability to automatically make field goals from within 40 yards; he had been lousy on kickoffs for many seasons. It is unlikely the new kicker will be automatic from within 40 yards like Longwell once was, but at least the new kicker can kickoff better. There is no way to tell how good/bad these guys will be until the preseason games start.

Sunday, August 06, 2006

I'm missed the Packers first scrimmage on TV this season. Last season, it showed off the talents of TE Ben Steele (didn't make the team out of camp) and CB Jason Horton (rarely played in 2005). It is not really a showcase for what the Packers can do. The pass coverage was awful, but it wasn't the starting secondary playing either. Unfortunately CB Ahmad Carroll didn't play well either, and it seems unlikely he will ever figure it out. Another bad sign was that LB A.J. Hawk came out on 3rd down in favor of LB Abdul Hodge. Hodge was a highly regarded player who slipped into the third round, but Hawk should be playing instead of Hodge, expect Hodge is outplaying him. Apparently Hawk isn't very good in pass coverage. It is early, but that is not a good start for Hawk.

It was a great day to read about Reggie White's induction into the Hall of Fame. His signing transformed the Packers and I have never seen another defensive lineman who could play like him. He literally threw 300 lb. lineman out of his way.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Training camp started last week and the best news is that LB A.J. Hawk and G Daryn Colledge signed on time. They need as much practice time with the first team units as they can get. There was some trouble signing LB Abdul Hodge, the Packers 3rd round pick, but he made it too. Hodge wasn't as essential as Hawk because Hodge should be a backup in 2006. Is Hodge the weak side linebacker of the future? He is probably more talented than likely starter LB Ben Taylor.

The Packers also released S Mark Roman right before camp started. Roman wasn't good in his two seasons with the Packers, but why did they make him wait all offseason? This article said Thompson waited to see how 6th round pick S Tyrone Culver played. Maybe. Roman demanded a trade or release back when the Packers signed S Marquand Manuel. It seemed like a cheap move by Thompson to wait so long to release Roman when he could have done it after the first minicamp in April.

The Packers lost another offensive lineman when T Adrian Klemm was injured. Apparently he would be the top backup for T Chad Clifton. With the loss of Klemm and previously T Kevin Barry, the Packers look thin at offensive tackle. It would be a problem, but a bigger problem would have been if Barry and Klemm ever had to start. Neither player has shown that he deserves playing time. Luckily, Clifton and T Mark Tauscher have been healthy the last couple seasons and started almost every game. Hopefully that streak continues in 2006. If not, it looks like OL William Whitticker or rookie OL Tony Moll would have an opportunity according to the current roster.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

The Packers signed 3rd round pick G Jason Spitz. After two mini-camps, Spitz emerged as the likely starter at right guard. Hopefully he really is good and didn't look good by comparison against two 2005 late round draft picks who have never played (G Junius Coston) or flamed out last season (G Will Whitticker). If he is the starter, then it was essential for him to sign before camp starts tomorrow. The article wasn't too optimistic about signing 2nd round pick G Daryn Colledge. The same thing about Spitz applies to Colledge; if he is starting, then he better be signed and in camp tomorrow. There shouldn't be too much trouble signing LB A.J. Hawk at this point with number 4 pick overall LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson and number 7 pick overall S Michael Huff signed. Hopefully the Packers and Hawk's agent need only a little more time to analyse those deals and come up with something in between. Hawk is going to start and needs to be in camp tomorrow.

As a general rule, no one should expect a rookie to start in the NFL. It takes them a season to get used to the routine, the speed at which the game is played, and the long season compared to college. However, when coming off a 4-12 season, there are obviously more holes than usual in the starting lineups and taking some chances are in order. Linebacker and offensive line were two of the weakest (special teams deserves mention too) positions on the team in 2005. Upgrading these positions and getting these players in camp on time is very important this season.

Friday, July 21, 2006

Training camp is starting July 28th. It has been a quiet summer, but there have two bits of good news this week. CB Al Harris will be in camp when it opens. Harris threatened last month to hold out, but apparently he thinks his chances are better for an extension if he shows up to camp instead of holding out. There is still the possibility this could turn ugly mid-season if Harris decides the Packers aren't going to give him a fair contract extension. The safe thing to do would be to extend Harris, but GM Ted Thompson decided it wasn't worth it for WR Javon Walker so Thompson obviously has his limits. Thompson might be right; Harris might not be worth it in a couple of seasons.

Thompson expects to have no problem signing LB A.J. Hawk. It is troubling that the only first round pick to sign is DE Mario Williams, and he signed before the draft. Thompson has probably agreed with Hawk's agent that Hawk should be paid X if RB Reggie Bush or another top draft pick receives a certain amount, but will Hawk be paid Y if Bush receives more. If Thompson has the parameters agreed to with Hawk's agent under a couple of different circumstances, then Hawk will probably be in camp on time.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

There is some speculation that LB A.J. Hawk might be hard to sign and start training camp late. It doesn't help that last year's number five overall pick was RB Cadillac Williams. The Packers probably want to pay a linebacker like Hawk less than a running back like Williams. Although DE Mario Williams is already signed, all the agents will probably consider RB Reggie Bush the true number one pick and are waiting to slot their client's salaries after Bush signs. There could be a delay in signing all 1st round picks due to higher salary demands after the increase in the salary cap last March. Any delay in starting training camp could easily delay Hawk's ability to adjust to the NFL. However, if the previous minicamps are any indication, it doesn't appear the Packers have any intention to play any linebacker other than Hawk at the weak side this season and Hawk will have to learn during the regular season. With the departure of LBs Na'il Diggs and Paris Lenon this offseason, there is no obvious second string weak side linebacker and the best guess is that free agent LB Ben Taylor would be the likely replacement if Hawk ends up holding out for a long time.

Friday, June 23, 2006

CB Al Harris update: He still ain't happy. It seemed obvious Harris was upset about CB Charles Woodson's free agent contract, but the article mentioned DE Aaron Kampman's $12 million signing bonus instead. That actually makes sense. At least Woodson has been to more Pro Bowls than Harris. Kampman has been playing on the same defense as Harris for the past three seasons, Harris believes he is the better player, and Kampman is much richer. It is debatable whether Harris is actually better than Kampman anyway. Harris said "I should have waited to see what the market dictated."

Dear Al, you had your best season in 2005 (pre-Baltimore game only) after spending multiple seasons as a backup in Philadelphia and an awful 2004 season. You signed for market value in 2004 and actually the Packers would be crazy to give you extra money at this time because cornerbacks rarely improve after they turn 32. We will be seeing you at training camp once the Packers start discussing how much of your signing bonus you will have to pay back by failing to report. Love, Packer Fans.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

The June minicamp has been going on this month, but it is too hard to filter out who is actually playing well from the coaches quotes. However, you can definetly see there is a problem with CB Al Harris because he is sitting out for a new contract. Most of the article is about the release of disappointing NT Donnell Washington, who has been in the coaches' doghouse under Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthy and his release should be no surprise. Buried deep in the article is that Harris is sitting out. It is early, but contract disputes haven't gone well for the Packers in recent seasons. Thanks to the Unofficial Salary Cap page, Harris will make $2.5 million in 2006 and received an initial signing bonus in 2004 of $4.375 million based on a 5 year contract. Any NFL player who signed before the big cap increase last March is probably underpaid for 2006, but it is more obvious for Harris since the Packers signed CB Charles Woodson. Woodson should be paid about $10.5 million in 2006; $4.6 million as a signing bonus, $1.5 million in base salary, and $4.4 million in easily reachable bonuses. Although Harris is the number 1 cornerback, he will be paid a lot less than Woodson in 2006 and beyond if Woodson remains with the Packers past 2006. It looks like the Packers will have to make some concession with Harris.

There is a little bit more about Harris in this article about the veterans who haven't shown up for the voluntary practices. I don't have high expectations for Woodson since no other NFL team believes he can play cornerback anymore, so his absense isn't a concern for me. NT Ryan Pickett isn't hurt by missing practices. What does a space clogging nose tackle have to learn? Hopefully this isn't a sign Pickett is not keeping in shape, but otherwise it isn't a problem.

G Jason Spitz has been getting some playing time with the first team at right guard. The 3rd round pick is most likely going to play at right guard over the nose tackle because of his size (310 lbs.) so this is his best opportunity for playing time. The top 3 players in consideration at right guard (Spitz, G Junius Coston, and G Will Whitticker) were all drafted by Ted Thompson, and after watching Whitticker during 2005, he is probably eager to see how both Spitz and Coston play this season.

LB Ben Taylor received playing time at the strong side linebacker position ahead of LB Roy Manning. Taylor and Manning appear to be similar players and there shouldn't be much of a difference between them. Both of them have to watch over their shoulders because LB Brady Poppinga (once returned from injury) and rookie LB Abdul Hodge might be ahead of them once Poppinga returns to practice and Hodge learns the defense.