After reading Tom Silverstein's article at jsonline.com, I see I was mistaken with OG Mike Wahle's free agency. His contract isn't expiring, but his cap number is $11 million next season, which is far too high and intended to force the Packers to release him. It doesn't seem possible that the Packers could use their franchise tag on Wahle. That's too bad, because it would really surprise me if Wahle doesn't sign a contract with a signing bonus over $10 million next season to start at left tackle for some other team.
The rest of Silverstein's article is very good too and does a great job of setting up the next four weeks for the Packers front office. Silverstein does put too much emphasis on retaining LB Hannibal Navies, who rarely made plays last season, and took a big step back from his solid 2003 season. OG Marco Rivera is a priority for next season, but how many seasons will he play at a Pro Bowl level? His knees have taken a pounding over the last few seasons and he didn't seem to play as well in 2004 as past seasons. If his contract demands are to be paid like as one of the highest paid offensive guards in the NFL, which they should be, then the Packers might be better off in the long run to let him go. Although it would be harder to convince QB Brett Favre to return without Rivera and Wahle back on the offensive line. Rivera's return is a not an easy decision.
TE Bubba Franks was tagged as the Packers franchise player, as multiple sources reported. It makes some sense to let Franks go out and price himself in the marketplace, then if some team offers Franks a reasonable contract, the Packers can easily match it. It probably depends on whether a team with cap space really wants to upgrade their tight end position this offseason; it would easy to write a contract that the Packers can't afford to match and they have to let Franks go for no compensation.
If the Packers think FS Darren Sharper would accept a pay cut, then they must be crazy. Unless Sharper's loyalty to the Packers is beyond my imagination, if Sharper is a free agent this offseason, then he would find a team willing to pay him a multi-million dollar signing bonus on a long term contract. If the Packers want to reduce Sharper's salary cap figure and keep him, then they have to offer him some guaranteed money and an extension. This can often lead to salary cap jail in the future if you do this with too many players, but Sharper can still play at a high level for a few more seasons and be worth the dollars in future seasons.
Overall this is a tough first offseason for Ted Thompson. It would be more difficult to rebound next season with the losses of Rivera, Wahle, Franks, and Sharper (assuming Favre returns). Favre's departure would change every other decision in the offseason.
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Its been a quiet past couple of Packer weeks.
There has been speculation on QB Brett Favre's retirement, but nothing is really known at this point (maybe Favre himself doesn't know what he wants to do).
Further speculation has been whether FS Darren Sharper will remain a Packer. Hopefully he stays but his 2005 cap number is too big. Sharper has lost a step over the last two seasons, but he still makes big plays, he is just turning 30, and he isn't too old or slow to remain a top NFL safety for the next few seasons. The Packers will probably have to guarantee him some money now to spread out his salary over the next few seasons.
Will some Packer get the franchise tag? I've read about TE Bubba Franks being tagged, but that seems unlikely after Franks's average past couple of seasons. Maybe OG Mike Wahle or OG Marco Rivera will be tagged. The salary cap value to tag either player would be less than other players because offensive guards are generally lesser paid players. Rivera would probably receive a franchise tag to keep him a Packer, but Wahle might get tagged and traded to a team that would play him at left tackle (and pay him bigger left tackle bucks). ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli had an article about teams using the franchise tag to obtain compensation for free agent departures a week ago, so it is possible that the Packers might decide to do the same. Remember that the Packers are currently over the salary cap so they won't be quick to place the franchise tag on any player (they would have to restructure contracts or release players to make it possible) and players are more likely to leave than to stay at this point.
If Wahle and/or Rivera leave this offseason, its likely that OG Steve Morley is at the front of the line, along with C Grey Ruegamer or C Scott Wells depending on whether C Mike Flanagan can return from his injuries. Morley was just sent to NFL Europe to get some more experience. OT Kevin Barry could return and start at right tackle, with RT Mark Tauscher switching to guard too. Morley was probably the Packer with only legitimate chance of starting or making the roster who was sent to NFL Europe, although bust P B.J. Sander was sent too.
If the current roster is left intact and new defensive coordinator can Jim Bates turn the defense into a NFL average unit, then the Packers are better than any team in the NFC except Philadelphia and have a great shot at making the Super Bowl. That should be the goal for this offseason.
There has been speculation on QB Brett Favre's retirement, but nothing is really known at this point (maybe Favre himself doesn't know what he wants to do).
Further speculation has been whether FS Darren Sharper will remain a Packer. Hopefully he stays but his 2005 cap number is too big. Sharper has lost a step over the last two seasons, but he still makes big plays, he is just turning 30, and he isn't too old or slow to remain a top NFL safety for the next few seasons. The Packers will probably have to guarantee him some money now to spread out his salary over the next few seasons.
Will some Packer get the franchise tag? I've read about TE Bubba Franks being tagged, but that seems unlikely after Franks's average past couple of seasons. Maybe OG Mike Wahle or OG Marco Rivera will be tagged. The salary cap value to tag either player would be less than other players because offensive guards are generally lesser paid players. Rivera would probably receive a franchise tag to keep him a Packer, but Wahle might get tagged and traded to a team that would play him at left tackle (and pay him bigger left tackle bucks). ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli had an article about teams using the franchise tag to obtain compensation for free agent departures a week ago, so it is possible that the Packers might decide to do the same. Remember that the Packers are currently over the salary cap so they won't be quick to place the franchise tag on any player (they would have to restructure contracts or release players to make it possible) and players are more likely to leave than to stay at this point.
If Wahle and/or Rivera leave this offseason, its likely that OG Steve Morley is at the front of the line, along with C Grey Ruegamer or C Scott Wells depending on whether C Mike Flanagan can return from his injuries. Morley was just sent to NFL Europe to get some more experience. OT Kevin Barry could return and start at right tackle, with RT Mark Tauscher switching to guard too. Morley was probably the Packer with only legitimate chance of starting or making the roster who was sent to NFL Europe, although bust P B.J. Sander was sent too.
If the current roster is left intact and new defensive coordinator can Jim Bates turn the defense into a NFL average unit, then the Packers are better than any team in the NFC except Philadelphia and have a great shot at making the Super Bowl. That should be the goal for this offseason.
Sunday, February 06, 2005
It looks like WR Donald Driver will be proven wrong. After various sources reported on Driver's radio show comments that QB Brett Favre would be retiring, espn.com's Chris Mortenson reported that Favre will be staying. Hopefully Favre will be playing for a couple more seasons. Favre isn't the best QB in the NFL and he takes too many chances (although they work out as often as they don't), but he will remain a threat to lead the NFC in TD passes next season (he led the NFL in 2003 and QB Daunte Culpepper could throw fewer in 2005 if WR Randy Moss is traded and so might QB Donovan McNabb if WR Terrell Owens doesn't fully recover from his broken leg-remember WR Jerry Rice was never the same after he broke his kneecap) and the Packers could spend the next 25 years (approximate time between QB Bart Starr and Favre's careers) looking for as good a quarterback.
Bob Slowik decided for a change of scenery after the 2004 defensive disaster. Slowik coached a very good Packer secondary from 2001-2003 and was offered the opportunity to return to that position, but he accepted the same job for Denver, as reported by denverbroncos.com last week. He could have been a good coach for the Packers next season, but maybe this was for the best.
Bob Slowik decided for a change of scenery after the 2004 defensive disaster. Slowik coached a very good Packer secondary from 2001-2003 and was offered the opportunity to return to that position, but he accepted the same job for Denver, as reported by denverbroncos.com last week. He could have been a good coach for the Packers next season, but maybe this was for the best.
Tuesday, January 25, 2005
After the loss vs. Minnesota, I wrote that the Packers had two top priorities; hiring a new defensive coordinator and a new secondary coach. If Bob Slovik accepts his old secondary coach job back this week, then the Packers will have accomplished both priorites.
New defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Bates finished 2004 as the interim head coach in Miami, after leading Miami as their defensive coordinator on an impressive run of top 10 finishes in total defense (according to footballoutsiders.com) in each of the last 5 seasons (2000-2004). Miami's pass defense under Bates never slipped below 9th (footballoutsiders.com ranked Miami's pass defense 9th in 2004), which was very impressive considering the train wreck that was Miami's 2004 season. Looking at the Packers 2004 defensive stats, the weakness in the Packers' pass defense can be seen in its pass defenses in 2004 (68 in 2004, down from 92 in 2003). Although the Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie and his 18 pass defenses in 2003, it was really a team let down. The Packers top 3 corners in 2003 combined for 37 pass defenses, while in 2004 they combined for 35, which shows that it wasn't replacing McKenzie with CB Ahmad Carroll that caused the problem, but that it was a team let down. Miami totaled pass defenses of 79, 84, 78 in 2004 through 2002 respectively, while being led by the unlikely pair of former Badger CB Jamar Fletcher's 12 in 2002 and DE Jason Taylor's 11 in 2004. Miami has had some great individual players on defense over the last 5 seasons, but Miami hasn't relied on any one player for their excellent pass defense. It has been a team effort coached by Bates.
Hopefully new/old secondary coach Bob Slovik. Slovik couldn't figure out how to make the Packers defense work in 2004 as coordinator, but Slovik had a successful run as secondary coach from 2000-2003 with the Packers. The Packers secondary was in the top 10 (again according to footballoutsiders.com) from 2001-2003, while below average only in Slovik's first season of 2000. Some mitigating factors in 2000; it was the rookie season for DE KGB and he hadn't gotten much playing time yet (former DE John Thierry led the Packers with 6.5 sacks in 2000) and McKenzie hadn't yet been established as the starting cornerback (he only started in 2001-2003). Bottom line; the Packers secondary has been good when Slovik is the secondary coach. Hopefully Slovik wants to stay with the Packers and reestablish himself in the NFL as a good coach with a secondary that should be much improved (minus SS Mark Roman) in 2005 after Carroll and CB Joey Thomas got their rookie seasons out of their systems.
New defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Bates finished 2004 as the interim head coach in Miami, after leading Miami as their defensive coordinator on an impressive run of top 10 finishes in total defense (according to footballoutsiders.com) in each of the last 5 seasons (2000-2004). Miami's pass defense under Bates never slipped below 9th (footballoutsiders.com ranked Miami's pass defense 9th in 2004), which was very impressive considering the train wreck that was Miami's 2004 season. Looking at the Packers 2004 defensive stats, the weakness in the Packers' pass defense can be seen in its pass defenses in 2004 (68 in 2004, down from 92 in 2003). Although the Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie and his 18 pass defenses in 2003, it was really a team let down. The Packers top 3 corners in 2003 combined for 37 pass defenses, while in 2004 they combined for 35, which shows that it wasn't replacing McKenzie with CB Ahmad Carroll that caused the problem, but that it was a team let down. Miami totaled pass defenses of 79, 84, 78 in 2004 through 2002 respectively, while being led by the unlikely pair of former Badger CB Jamar Fletcher's 12 in 2002 and DE Jason Taylor's 11 in 2004. Miami has had some great individual players on defense over the last 5 seasons, but Miami hasn't relied on any one player for their excellent pass defense. It has been a team effort coached by Bates.
Hopefully new/old secondary coach Bob Slovik. Slovik couldn't figure out how to make the Packers defense work in 2004 as coordinator, but Slovik had a successful run as secondary coach from 2000-2003 with the Packers. The Packers secondary was in the top 10 (again according to footballoutsiders.com) from 2001-2003, while below average only in Slovik's first season of 2000. Some mitigating factors in 2000; it was the rookie season for DE KGB and he hadn't gotten much playing time yet (former DE John Thierry led the Packers with 6.5 sacks in 2000) and McKenzie hadn't yet been established as the starting cornerback (he only started in 2001-2003). Bottom line; the Packers secondary has been good when Slovik is the secondary coach. Hopefully Slovik wants to stay with the Packers and reestablish himself in the NFL as a good coach with a secondary that should be much improved (minus SS Mark Roman) in 2005 after Carroll and CB Joey Thomas got their rookie seasons out of their systems.
Sunday, January 16, 2005
The Packers introduced Ted Thompson as their new GM. Although President Bob Harlan was talking about how Mike Sherman understood the need to reduce his burden entering Sherman's lame duck season of his contract, this was the first real firing in the Packers front office since Ron Wolf was hired in 1991. Since 1991, only two head coaches have been fired (Lindy Infante - 1991 and Ray Rhodes - 1999) and the Packers have been a remarkably stable franchise. There are a few ways to look at this move.
Thompson was a panic hire. After the second Lambeau playoff defeat in three seasons, Harlan had to do something to seem decisive. Thompson was an easy hire because he worked for the Packers for most of the 1990s (1992-1999) and is someone whom Harlan is very familiar. The downside is that Thompson has failed to improve the personnel in Seattle over the last three seasons; the only impact players acquired from 2002-2004 were CB Marcus Trufant and FS Michael Boulware. Seattle's big free agent in 2004, DE Grant Wistrom, was often injured and only recorded 3.5 sacks. Thompson leaves Seattle before the start of a dangerous offseason with their three best players (QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander, and LT Walter Jones) all entering unrestricted free agency.
It was necessary to hire a GM. Mike Sherman was only able to act as GM/Coach because he could rely on Mark Hatley, the former personnel director for Chicago who had never been officially given the title of GM in either Chicago or with the Packers. Unfortunately, Hatley passed away last summer and finding someone of Hatley's caliber willing to work under Sherman was probably an unlikely situation. Therefore, a true GM needed to be hired and Sherman's title would have to be trimmed back to coach only (I haven't read anywhere if Sherman gets to keep the VP title he had).
This contradicts Ron Wolf's last decision as Packers GM to hire Sherman to replace him. Maybe, but the last time Harlan hired a GM was Wolf and Wolf thought enough of Thompson to work alongside him in the Packers front office for several seasons.
In the end Thompson doesn't address the biggest need the Packers have this offseason; fix the defense. Thompson could bring in better defensive players, but I don't blame the players as much as I blame the defensive coaches. Thompson might know how to throw a bunch of high draft choices on Trufant, Boulware, and SS Ken Hamlin, but he can't teach them how to play a zone or cover-2. Thompson's going to have to prove to me that he deserves this job.
Thompson was a panic hire. After the second Lambeau playoff defeat in three seasons, Harlan had to do something to seem decisive. Thompson was an easy hire because he worked for the Packers for most of the 1990s (1992-1999) and is someone whom Harlan is very familiar. The downside is that Thompson has failed to improve the personnel in Seattle over the last three seasons; the only impact players acquired from 2002-2004 were CB Marcus Trufant and FS Michael Boulware. Seattle's big free agent in 2004, DE Grant Wistrom, was often injured and only recorded 3.5 sacks. Thompson leaves Seattle before the start of a dangerous offseason with their three best players (QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander, and LT Walter Jones) all entering unrestricted free agency.
It was necessary to hire a GM. Mike Sherman was only able to act as GM/Coach because he could rely on Mark Hatley, the former personnel director for Chicago who had never been officially given the title of GM in either Chicago or with the Packers. Unfortunately, Hatley passed away last summer and finding someone of Hatley's caliber willing to work under Sherman was probably an unlikely situation. Therefore, a true GM needed to be hired and Sherman's title would have to be trimmed back to coach only (I haven't read anywhere if Sherman gets to keep the VP title he had).
This contradicts Ron Wolf's last decision as Packers GM to hire Sherman to replace him. Maybe, but the last time Harlan hired a GM was Wolf and Wolf thought enough of Thompson to work alongside him in the Packers front office for several seasons.
In the end Thompson doesn't address the biggest need the Packers have this offseason; fix the defense. Thompson could bring in better defensive players, but I don't blame the players as much as I blame the defensive coaches. Thompson might know how to throw a bunch of high draft choices on Trufant, Boulware, and SS Ken Hamlin, but he can't teach them how to play a zone or cover-2. Thompson's going to have to prove to me that he deserves this job.
Thursday, January 13, 2005
For some reason, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee J-S wants Mike Sherman out as GM, maybe even as coach too. Silverstein had an article posted on jsonline.com on 1/12/05 about the Packers alleged pursuit of Seattle's VP of football operations Ted Thompson for GM. Hopefully, Packers' President Bob Harlan doesn't take Silverstein's advise.
Thompson has Packer roots, working under former GM Ron Wolf from 1992 to 1999. Silverstein said "since joining the Seahawks in January 2000, Thompson has run the draft and advised Holmgren on personnel matters." That is probably overstating Thompson's importance. Holmgren didn't give up GM duties in Seattle until Seattle hired Bob Ferguson as their GM in February 2003 (http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Spins/2003/spin021103.htm). Silverstein gave Thompson credit for drafting "running back Shaun Alexander, guard Steve Hutchinson, receiver Darrell Jackson, cornerbacks Ken Lucas and Marcus Trufant and safeties Ken Hamlin and Michael Boulware." If he really wanted to pump up Thompson, he should have mentioned how Thompson fooled Wolf into trading QB Matt Hasselbeck and the pick that became Hutchinson for the pick used on useless DE Jamal Reynolds. Of course, Silverstein didn't mention any of the inept decisions Thompson was involved with, such as drafting TE Jerramy Stevens, or signing injury prone DE Grant Wistrom for big bucks (more than twice what useless ex-Packer bust DE Joe Johnson was paid), or allowing Seattle to come into this offseason with their 3 big offensive stars (T Walter Jones, Hasselbeck and Alexander) all unsigned for 2005. He also failed to mention how Thompson completely failed to improve a very talented 2003 Seattle and allowed them to regress in 2004.
Silverstein appears to think Sherman is useless as a GM. Silverstein does praise Sherman for drafting WR Javon Walker and C Scott Wells (Scott Wells?) but is quick to mention the "numerous mistakes in free agency (Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Tim Couch, Mark Roman, Cletidus Hunt)" Johnson was bad, Hunt has been disappointing (but somewhat underpaid considering what teams now pay for defensive tackles like Cornelius Griffin or Rod Coleman), and Nickerson, Couch and Roman all haven't worked out, but cost the Packers little. "Of his six picks in 2004, the only one who showed promise was seventh-round center Scott Wells," says Silverstein, while ignoring the fact that rookies rarely perform well in their rookie season. If Silverstein wants an example, take a peek at QB Brett Favre's stats his rookie season. How about LB Nick Barnett Tom? Or the 2nd round pick that brought in CB Al Harris?
Sherman has been in charge of 3 drafts since Wolf retired (2002-2004. Ignoring 2004 (rookie seasons don't define players), 2002 and 2003 have brought in Walker, RB Najeh Davenport, DE Aaron Kampman, QB Craig Nall, Barnett, and Harris (traded for 2nd round pick). How did Thompson do in 2002 and 2003? The only noticeable starters are the disappointing Stevens (by the way, Seattle was total suckerpunched in this draft when they tried to trade down and still pick New England TE Daniel Graham, but New England traded up to take Graham and left Seattle stuck with Stevens), CB Marcus Trufant, and S Ken Hamlin. TE Ryan Hannam got some playing time late in the 2004 season too. Maybe QB Seneca Wallace is primed to be the next QB Jeff Blake, otherwise the Packers have drafted better in those two seasons than Seattle.
My point is that Sherman is a competant GM and coach. You can compare Sherman favorable to nearly every other coach or GM in the league over the last three seasons, except Bill Belichek (probably one or two other teams too). Sherman has not done well in free agency, but teams aren't built through free agency (see Washington). He does need someone to replace the late Mark Hatley, but he doesn't need to go looking for a new job. The best thing for a team in the NFL is stability, at least through the last couple seasons for Favre. Changing GM and coach will not put this team any closer to a Super Bowl in the next two seasons (although a change of defensive coordinator and secondary coach remains a must this offseason).
Thompson has Packer roots, working under former GM Ron Wolf from 1992 to 1999. Silverstein said "since joining the Seahawks in January 2000, Thompson has run the draft and advised Holmgren on personnel matters." That is probably overstating Thompson's importance. Holmgren didn't give up GM duties in Seattle until Seattle hired Bob Ferguson as their GM in February 2003 (http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Spins/2003/spin021103.htm). Silverstein gave Thompson credit for drafting "running back Shaun Alexander, guard Steve Hutchinson, receiver Darrell Jackson, cornerbacks Ken Lucas and Marcus Trufant and safeties Ken Hamlin and Michael Boulware." If he really wanted to pump up Thompson, he should have mentioned how Thompson fooled Wolf into trading QB Matt Hasselbeck and the pick that became Hutchinson for the pick used on useless DE Jamal Reynolds. Of course, Silverstein didn't mention any of the inept decisions Thompson was involved with, such as drafting TE Jerramy Stevens, or signing injury prone DE Grant Wistrom for big bucks (more than twice what useless ex-Packer bust DE Joe Johnson was paid), or allowing Seattle to come into this offseason with their 3 big offensive stars (T Walter Jones, Hasselbeck and Alexander) all unsigned for 2005. He also failed to mention how Thompson completely failed to improve a very talented 2003 Seattle and allowed them to regress in 2004.
Silverstein appears to think Sherman is useless as a GM. Silverstein does praise Sherman for drafting WR Javon Walker and C Scott Wells (Scott Wells?) but is quick to mention the "numerous mistakes in free agency (Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Tim Couch, Mark Roman, Cletidus Hunt)" Johnson was bad, Hunt has been disappointing (but somewhat underpaid considering what teams now pay for defensive tackles like Cornelius Griffin or Rod Coleman), and Nickerson, Couch and Roman all haven't worked out, but cost the Packers little. "Of his six picks in 2004, the only one who showed promise was seventh-round center Scott Wells," says Silverstein, while ignoring the fact that rookies rarely perform well in their rookie season. If Silverstein wants an example, take a peek at QB Brett Favre's stats his rookie season. How about LB Nick Barnett Tom? Or the 2nd round pick that brought in CB Al Harris?
Sherman has been in charge of 3 drafts since Wolf retired (2002-2004. Ignoring 2004 (rookie seasons don't define players), 2002 and 2003 have brought in Walker, RB Najeh Davenport, DE Aaron Kampman, QB Craig Nall, Barnett, and Harris (traded for 2nd round pick). How did Thompson do in 2002 and 2003? The only noticeable starters are the disappointing Stevens (by the way, Seattle was total suckerpunched in this draft when they tried to trade down and still pick New England TE Daniel Graham, but New England traded up to take Graham and left Seattle stuck with Stevens), CB Marcus Trufant, and S Ken Hamlin. TE Ryan Hannam got some playing time late in the 2004 season too. Maybe QB Seneca Wallace is primed to be the next QB Jeff Blake, otherwise the Packers have drafted better in those two seasons than Seattle.
My point is that Sherman is a competant GM and coach. You can compare Sherman favorable to nearly every other coach or GM in the league over the last three seasons, except Bill Belichek (probably one or two other teams too). Sherman has not done well in free agency, but teams aren't built through free agency (see Washington). He does need someone to replace the late Mark Hatley, but he doesn't need to go looking for a new job. The best thing for a team in the NFL is stability, at least through the last couple seasons for Favre. Changing GM and coach will not put this team any closer to a Super Bowl in the next two seasons (although a change of defensive coordinator and secondary coach remains a must this offseason).
Monday, January 10, 2005
Packers 17, Minnesota 31. Not quite as humiliating as the 2002 home playoff loss against Atlanta but it was still a big hurt. With the defense struggling as bad as it was, QB Brett Favre had to have a perfect game and he was off. Favre struggled in his previous cold Lambeau game against Jacksonville when he threw 3 interceptions and he struggled again against Minnesota in the cold (4 more INTs). It didn't help that the wide receivers appeared to run poor routes on three of the interceptions while the fourth pick was a deflection. No matter how disappointing the outcome, the Packers came into this game as a below average team due to their poor defense and Minnesota played better during the regular season. Minnesota managed to score exactly 31 points in each meeting vs. the Packers and this time the Packers couldn't manage their usual 34 points to get the win. Favre is now considering his future (please come back in 2005!) and the Packers have to figure out where to go from here.
How did they do in 2004? The offense improved! No really. Footballoutsiders.com offensive DVOA rating was 13.3% in 2004, up from 8.1% in 2003. The Packers total offense rating slipped from 8th to 9th, but 2004 was a big season for offense. The offense had more yards per game, fewer sacks, and fewer turnovers. The Packers defense had outplayed the Packers offense from 2001 through 2003 (no really; go to footballoutsiders.com or see below for the shorthand breakdown) but the defense collapsed in 2004. Only the bay area duo of San Francisco and Oakland had worse pass defenses.
So what is wrong with the pass defense?
Interceptions are probably the first answer. The Packers had 24 INTs in 2002 and 21 in 2003, but slipped to 8 in 2004. By the way, Ed Donatell's improved Atlanta pass defense increased their interception to total to 19 in 2004, up from 15 in 2003.
The second answer is pass defenses (PDs). The Packers fell off the cliff, going from 95 PDs in 2002 and 92 PDs in 2003, falling to 68 PDs in 2004. CB Al Harris actually improved his number from 14 PDs in 2003 to 20 PDs in 2004. The Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie's 18 PDs (replacing them with CB Ahmad Carroll's 8) and FS Darren Sharper fell from 13 to 7 PDs. The biggest offenders were the starting linebackers; although LB Nick Barnett had 6 PDs in 2003 and 2004, LB Na'il Diggs and Hannibal Navies fell from a combined 8 PDs in 2003 to 0 (yes zero) PDs in 2004. Ed Donatell's biggest improvement in Atlanta was raising the team's PDs up from a lowly 56 in 2003 to 80 in 2004. The best pass defense in the NFL in 2004, Buffalo, was led in PDs by their outside LB Takeo Spikes's 17, and as a team recorded 83 PDs. The secondary and linebackers inability to get into position to either break up a pass or intercept it was the number one defensive problem in 2004.
It wasn't the lack of a pass rush that led to a poor pass defense either. DE KGB had 13.5 sacks and his stats were nearly identical to his 2001-2003 seasons. The Packers actually had more sacks, up from 34 in 2003 to 40 in 2004, and got into the backfield as much as they ever have with 49 tackles for a loss, down from 57 in 2003 but way up from 36 in 2002.
The run defense slipped in 2004, but the loss of NTs Grady Jackson, James Lee, and Donnell Washington to injuries was as much of the problem as anything else.
So who takes the fall for the awful pass defense that sank the season? Maybe no one; CB Joey Thomas and Carroll had to take on far too much responsiblities far too early in their rookie seasons due to McKenzie's decision to abandon the Packers. Maybe the players; Sharper clearly looked a step slower while playing injured much of the season and SS Mark Roman failed to impress in his first Packer season. Diggs and Navies might both need to be replaced after they failed to have any impact in pass defense. However, most of the blame should fall on the new defensive coaches; coordinator Bob Slovik and secondary coach Kurt Shottenheimer. Players often looked lost in coverage, the rookie cornerbacks didn't develop much during the season, and the defense looked outcoached on too many occasions. Shottenheimer looked like a good hire at the start of the season, but the Packers fell from 92 pass defenses in 2003 to 56 in 2004, while his former team, Detroit, greatly improved from 66 in 2003 to 80 in 2004.
So how to fix the Packers this offseason? Mike Sherman deserves to be back as coach and GM in 2005, but he does need to replace personnel director Mark Hatley, who passed away last summer, and find a good player personnel man to assist him in the future. The Packers need a change at defensive coordinator and secondary coach. It was no slam dunk decision to fire Donatell last season, but Slovik and Shottenheimer need to move on. The Packers might want to consider moving Sharper to strong safety and finding a quicker cornerback-type player to play at free safety. Most important is finding a linebacker who is good in coverage, preferable a veteran player, to replace Navies. Diggs was probably held back due to injury and poor coaching and shouldn't take the blame this season. It won't be easy to juggle salary cap concerns and free agent re-signings so that a veteran linebacker can come to Green Bay and a defensive coaching change is rarely a cure-all, but both need to happen this offseason.
2004 -5% 21; O 13.3% 9 (P 26% 8, R 9.4% 7 ); D 20% 29 (P 32.3% 30, R 4.9% 23); ST -2.8% 24
2003 18.9% 5; O 8.1% 8 (P 11.8% 8, R 4.8% 8); D -9.4% 9 (P -10% 8, R -8.7% 10)
2002 13.2% 8; O 2.8% 19 (P 7.1% 15, R -2.6% 20); D -12.8% 4 (P -32.4% 2, R 10.7% 29)
2001 13.8% 8; O 2.1% 15 (P 12.8% 6, R -11.3% 22); D -11% 11 (P -21.6% 7, R 3.5% 23)
How did they do in 2004? The offense improved! No really. Footballoutsiders.com offensive DVOA rating was 13.3% in 2004, up from 8.1% in 2003. The Packers total offense rating slipped from 8th to 9th, but 2004 was a big season for offense. The offense had more yards per game, fewer sacks, and fewer turnovers. The Packers defense had outplayed the Packers offense from 2001 through 2003 (no really; go to footballoutsiders.com or see below for the shorthand breakdown) but the defense collapsed in 2004. Only the bay area duo of San Francisco and Oakland had worse pass defenses.
So what is wrong with the pass defense?
Interceptions are probably the first answer. The Packers had 24 INTs in 2002 and 21 in 2003, but slipped to 8 in 2004. By the way, Ed Donatell's improved Atlanta pass defense increased their interception to total to 19 in 2004, up from 15 in 2003.
The second answer is pass defenses (PDs). The Packers fell off the cliff, going from 95 PDs in 2002 and 92 PDs in 2003, falling to 68 PDs in 2004. CB Al Harris actually improved his number from 14 PDs in 2003 to 20 PDs in 2004. The Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie's 18 PDs (replacing them with CB Ahmad Carroll's 8) and FS Darren Sharper fell from 13 to 7 PDs. The biggest offenders were the starting linebackers; although LB Nick Barnett had 6 PDs in 2003 and 2004, LB Na'il Diggs and Hannibal Navies fell from a combined 8 PDs in 2003 to 0 (yes zero) PDs in 2004. Ed Donatell's biggest improvement in Atlanta was raising the team's PDs up from a lowly 56 in 2003 to 80 in 2004. The best pass defense in the NFL in 2004, Buffalo, was led in PDs by their outside LB Takeo Spikes's 17, and as a team recorded 83 PDs. The secondary and linebackers inability to get into position to either break up a pass or intercept it was the number one defensive problem in 2004.
It wasn't the lack of a pass rush that led to a poor pass defense either. DE KGB had 13.5 sacks and his stats were nearly identical to his 2001-2003 seasons. The Packers actually had more sacks, up from 34 in 2003 to 40 in 2004, and got into the backfield as much as they ever have with 49 tackles for a loss, down from 57 in 2003 but way up from 36 in 2002.
The run defense slipped in 2004, but the loss of NTs Grady Jackson, James Lee, and Donnell Washington to injuries was as much of the problem as anything else.
So who takes the fall for the awful pass defense that sank the season? Maybe no one; CB Joey Thomas and Carroll had to take on far too much responsiblities far too early in their rookie seasons due to McKenzie's decision to abandon the Packers. Maybe the players; Sharper clearly looked a step slower while playing injured much of the season and SS Mark Roman failed to impress in his first Packer season. Diggs and Navies might both need to be replaced after they failed to have any impact in pass defense. However, most of the blame should fall on the new defensive coaches; coordinator Bob Slovik and secondary coach Kurt Shottenheimer. Players often looked lost in coverage, the rookie cornerbacks didn't develop much during the season, and the defense looked outcoached on too many occasions. Shottenheimer looked like a good hire at the start of the season, but the Packers fell from 92 pass defenses in 2003 to 56 in 2004, while his former team, Detroit, greatly improved from 66 in 2003 to 80 in 2004.
So how to fix the Packers this offseason? Mike Sherman deserves to be back as coach and GM in 2005, but he does need to replace personnel director Mark Hatley, who passed away last summer, and find a good player personnel man to assist him in the future. The Packers need a change at defensive coordinator and secondary coach. It was no slam dunk decision to fire Donatell last season, but Slovik and Shottenheimer need to move on. The Packers might want to consider moving Sharper to strong safety and finding a quicker cornerback-type player to play at free safety. Most important is finding a linebacker who is good in coverage, preferable a veteran player, to replace Navies. Diggs was probably held back due to injury and poor coaching and shouldn't take the blame this season. It won't be easy to juggle salary cap concerns and free agent re-signings so that a veteran linebacker can come to Green Bay and a defensive coaching change is rarely a cure-all, but both need to happen this offseason.
2004 -5% 21; O 13.3% 9 (P 26% 8, R 9.4% 7 ); D 20% 29 (P 32.3% 30, R 4.9% 23); ST -2.8% 24
2003 18.9% 5; O 8.1% 8 (P 11.8% 8, R 4.8% 8); D -9.4% 9 (P -10% 8, R -8.7% 10)
2002 13.2% 8; O 2.8% 19 (P 7.1% 15, R -2.6% 20); D -12.8% 4 (P -32.4% 2, R 10.7% 29)
2001 13.8% 8; O 2.1% 15 (P 12.8% 6, R -11.3% 22); D -11% 11 (P -21.6% 7, R 3.5% 23)
Sunday, January 09, 2005
Packers 31, Chicago 14. It was hard to be too inspired to write anything about this game. Chicago phoned it in, at least on offense. The Chicago defense looked bad, but without their best player (LB Bryan Urlacher), they shouldn't be looking too good.
First Half: Bad tackling continues. WR David Terrell ran for a while after CB Al Harris got completely lost and SS Mark Roman continued his poor tackling. But this quick early Chicago TD was their only highlight. The Packers made it look easy scoring against Chicago, and QB Chad Hutchinson helped with the TD pass to FS Darren Sharper. It wasn't the worst decision Hutchinson could have made (although he could have stopped staring at the receiver) and it was a great read by Sharper. QB Craig Nall played well again, his four good game of the season (preseason vs. Tennessee, Tennessee, Philadelphia, and now Chicago). Considering he almost was cut in the preseason in favor of QB Tim Couch, he has really given his career a second life. He is a restricted free agent (I believe) this offseason and might be traded this offseason. Packers 28, Chicago 7.
Second Half: The only concern remains that the Packers run defense didn't play well again. RB Thomas Jones did not have a great season, only rushing for over 100 yards against the Packers twice, Minnesota once and Detroit once (highlight the poor run defense in the NFC North). NT Grady Jackson didn't play to rest his knee, but it wasn't incouraging to let a below average running back run all over you. The Packers offense played to get the game over with. Packers 31, Chicago 14.
First Half: Bad tackling continues. WR David Terrell ran for a while after CB Al Harris got completely lost and SS Mark Roman continued his poor tackling. But this quick early Chicago TD was their only highlight. The Packers made it look easy scoring against Chicago, and QB Chad Hutchinson helped with the TD pass to FS Darren Sharper. It wasn't the worst decision Hutchinson could have made (although he could have stopped staring at the receiver) and it was a great read by Sharper. QB Craig Nall played well again, his four good game of the season (preseason vs. Tennessee, Tennessee, Philadelphia, and now Chicago). Considering he almost was cut in the preseason in favor of QB Tim Couch, he has really given his career a second life. He is a restricted free agent (I believe) this offseason and might be traded this offseason. Packers 28, Chicago 7.
Second Half: The only concern remains that the Packers run defense didn't play well again. RB Thomas Jones did not have a great season, only rushing for over 100 yards against the Packers twice, Minnesota once and Detroit once (highlight the poor run defense in the NFC North). NT Grady Jackson didn't play to rest his knee, but it wasn't incouraging to let a below average running back run all over you. The Packers offense played to get the game over with. Packers 31, Chicago 14.
Saturday, January 01, 2005
In the first few weeks, the biggest concern for the Packers was their depth at defensive tackle. With three key injuries by week 5 (DT Donnell Washington, DT James Lee, and DT Grady Jackson), it was a big problem. Well the problem is back. Lee is now on IR and gone for the season, he missed the last couple of games anyway, and Jackson has reaggravated/reinjured his knee and needs more surgery. Undrafted rookie DT Colin Cole made his first appearance as a Packer last week in Minnesota for some added depth. Jackson is putting his needed (no pun intended) surgery and play through the rest of the season. Teams seem to love to run away from Jackson, so if Jackson stops playing it could be a very quick postseason. The most likely first round opponent, Carolina, isn't a very good running team (now starting their 4th string RB Nick Goings), unfortunatley the likely 2nd round opponent, Atlanta, is a very good running team although their big RB T.J. Duckett will probably play his first game in a month in the playoffs after undergoing December knee surgery.
Should the Packers sit out their players in Chicago? I hope not. Last season, Denver came into Green Bay in week 17 to play a meaningless game, sat all their regulars, and then got blown out in the playoffs. Injured players like LB Na'il Diggs and Jackson should sit, but the rest of the team should play at least the first half.
Should the Packers sit out their players in Chicago? I hope not. Last season, Denver came into Green Bay in week 17 to play a meaningless game, sat all their regulars, and then got blown out in the playoffs. Injured players like LB Na'il Diggs and Jackson should sit, but the rest of the team should play at least the first half.
Packers 34, Minnesota 31. NFC NORTH CHAMPS!!! A very surprising end to a disappointing 1-4 start. What changed during the season to turn 1-4 into 9-6? Surprisingly it was the improvement in the offense. The defense has been run over all season, but in the Packers first 5 games, only the week 3 loss against Indianapolis was an excellent offensive performance. Tom Rossely's health problems that led to Mike Sherman calling plays after week 5 could have been a reason. The offense played fine at Carolina and vs. Chicago, but neither was a dominant performance. The Packers offense didn't score a TD against Tennessee until they were down 24-3, which was far too late. The offense was in a slump starting against Philadelphia, continuing vs. Detroit, and didn't break out until the 2nd half vs. Jacksonville. The offense has overall been great this season, but the defense can't stop anybody and the offense has to play at a very high level the rest of the season.
First Half: Please, please, please tackle somebody. LB Nick Barnett is playing hard but can't cover the entire field. LB Na'il Diggs is trying to play through a serious back/kidney injury. There is no one in the defensive backfield that was not tackling bad. Jsonline.com has a recent article pointing the finger at SS Mark Roman, who is the most perplexing tackler, because prior to December he was the best tackler in the secondary but he has been playing poorly ever since. CB Joey Thomas's wiff on the tackle of RB Michael Bennett's TD run was the worst missed tackle I've seen in the NFL this season. Fortunately, QB Brett Favre had his way with Minnesota's defense for the second time this season. Minnesota held the big play in check, but couldn't stop Favre moving the offense down the field on long drives. Favre will have to play like this the rest of the season. Packers 17, Minnesota 21.
Second Half: As bad as the Packers secondary was at tackling, they played very well in coverage. The tackling improved, the coverage was good, and Minnesota didn't get a big play on offense the rest of the game. Their only TD was the outstanding interception by LB Chris Claiborne. The Packers defense has had problems with good tight ends in coverage all season, but TE Jermaine Wiggins was covered well and had minimal impact after being a major weapon against the Packers in week 10. DE Aaron Kampman had his best game of the season and had a major impact. He ran down WR Nate Burleson down from behind on a short pass, which was unbelievable. Minnesota's WRs just gave up on QB Daunte Culpepper in the fourth quarter. How great is it to have automatic (within 40 yards) K Ryan Longwell with the Packers? Packers 34, Minnesota 31.
The most amazing thing about this game was the way the score, final play, total yardage were all identical with the week 10 game in Green Bay.
First Half: Please, please, please tackle somebody. LB Nick Barnett is playing hard but can't cover the entire field. LB Na'il Diggs is trying to play through a serious back/kidney injury. There is no one in the defensive backfield that was not tackling bad. Jsonline.com has a recent article pointing the finger at SS Mark Roman, who is the most perplexing tackler, because prior to December he was the best tackler in the secondary but he has been playing poorly ever since. CB Joey Thomas's wiff on the tackle of RB Michael Bennett's TD run was the worst missed tackle I've seen in the NFL this season. Fortunately, QB Brett Favre had his way with Minnesota's defense for the second time this season. Minnesota held the big play in check, but couldn't stop Favre moving the offense down the field on long drives. Favre will have to play like this the rest of the season. Packers 17, Minnesota 21.
Second Half: As bad as the Packers secondary was at tackling, they played very well in coverage. The tackling improved, the coverage was good, and Minnesota didn't get a big play on offense the rest of the game. Their only TD was the outstanding interception by LB Chris Claiborne. The Packers defense has had problems with good tight ends in coverage all season, but TE Jermaine Wiggins was covered well and had minimal impact after being a major weapon against the Packers in week 10. DE Aaron Kampman had his best game of the season and had a major impact. He ran down WR Nate Burleson down from behind on a short pass, which was unbelievable. Minnesota's WRs just gave up on QB Daunte Culpepper in the fourth quarter. How great is it to have automatic (within 40 yards) K Ryan Longwell with the Packers? Packers 34, Minnesota 31.
The most amazing thing about this game was the way the score, final play, total yardage were all identical with the week 10 game in Green Bay.
Friday, December 31, 2004
Reggie White's funeral was today. When I first heard the news, it really surprised me, and reminded me of the too young passing of former Chief Derrick Thomas. White's signing with Green Bay was the fourth and final major step that led to the Packers two mid 90s Super Bowl appearances, after signing Ron Wolf, signing Mike Holmgren, and trading for Brett Favre. There is a lot of commentary on the internet over the last week regarding Reggie White the man and player. While no one has disputed Reggie White as a great football player, many comments have been made about White has said over the years (his comments on homosexualty apparently cost him a job with CBS) and charitable activites he never actually did (failed to pay a promised donation to a charity in Denver and never rebuilt the church destroyed by fire in the mid 90s). I'm not the best person to address Reggie White the person, so I'll leave that for other websites. But Reggie White the player was dominate at times, always the first concern of every opposing offense and made the entire defense better, and the second greatest Packer player since the end of the Lombardi era.
The only regret of Reggie White's Packer career should be the way it ended. If it hadn't been the salary cap era, it would have never been a problem. But White was unsure about retirement over the entire 1997 season (he played hurt most of the season) and throughout and after the 1998 season. Ron Wolf was trying to plan for life after Reggie on defense, but needed the salary cap relief Reggie's retirement would bring after the 1998 season. New head coach Ray Rhodes asked Reggie to reconsider retirement and he appeared to be considering a return in 1999, but Ron Wolf ran out of time and had to ask Reggie to officially retire with the NFL. Reggie was NFC defensive player of the year in 1998 and obviously wanted to play again or he wouldn't have played for Carolina in 2000. Its a small regret, but it would have been great to have seen White play for the Packers in 1999 and 2000.
The only regret of Reggie White's Packer career should be the way it ended. If it hadn't been the salary cap era, it would have never been a problem. But White was unsure about retirement over the entire 1997 season (he played hurt most of the season) and throughout and after the 1998 season. Ron Wolf was trying to plan for life after Reggie on defense, but needed the salary cap relief Reggie's retirement would bring after the 1998 season. New head coach Ray Rhodes asked Reggie to reconsider retirement and he appeared to be considering a return in 1999, but Ron Wolf ran out of time and had to ask Reggie to officially retire with the NFL. Reggie was NFC defensive player of the year in 1998 and obviously wanted to play again or he wouldn't have played for Carolina in 2000. Its a small regret, but it would have been great to have seen White play for the Packers in 1999 and 2000.
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
Packers 28, Jacksonville 25. The good news is that this game truly didn't matter. When the Packers beat Minnesota next week, the Packers essentially assure themselves the #3 seat and the NFC North championship. A Packers loss would result in the top wild card spot and a game at probably Seattle (someone has to win the NFC West). All the problems that resulted in the Packers loss were fundamental problems with the team that aren't going to be fixed this season if ever.
First Half: Jacksonville scores an easy TD. Who's fault is it? Just about everyone (defensive coaches and players) can take some blame. QB Brett Favre/RB Ahman Green fumble in the red zone (1 of 3 red zone turnovers). Fumbles and Green just seem to go together and there is nothing to be done about it. Then the defensive penalties start...Are the Packers defensive players frustrated or poorly coached or both? All 3 top CBs Al Harris, Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas keep constantly grabbing the receivers. Jacksonville has two of the top DTs in the NFL in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, rookie 3rd string C Scott Wells held his own, and he even handled Henderson one-on-one on a big Green run play. Great heads up play by FS Darren Sharper (everyone on both sides gave up on an apparent incompletion except Sharper who stripped the ball from an offensive lineman who picked up the ball and ran in it for a TD). K Ryan Longwell missed his first field goal within the 40 yard line in a long while and it cost in this game (this again isn't a problem that needs or can be fixed but it cost the Packers big in this game). Overall it was a very poor half with a lot of Packer turnovers and penalties. Packers 10, Jacksonville 14.
Second Half: TE Ben Steele has been useless for weeks, but he caught a couple of short passes in
this game and finally started to show his usefulness. The Packers took advantage of their blocker overload on short yardage running plays to set up the TD pass to WR Donald Driver (who is sneaking up on an outstanding season). They had been overloading blockers to the strong side all season, usually ran for the short gain for the first down, and used that tendency to set up the TD pass. How did the Packers run defense set up a big RB Fred Taylor TD run? Everyone (coaches and players) can take some blame. Sharper blitzed to the wrong side and took himself out of the play (was it his fault or a bad scheme?), DT Cletidus Hunt was blocked by one blocker and pushed out of the hole, NT Grady Jackson was blocked by the left guard one-on-one, if either Hunt or Jackson had occupied more than one blocker then the center couldn't have come out and blocked LB Nick Barnett out of the play, and finally SS Mark Roman (who has had a bad last few games and might have played his way out of the lineup for next season) took a bad angle and couldn't make the tackle. Maybe LB Hannibal Navies should be the middle linebacker (he is bigger than Barnett) because he showed again that he can't cover anybody. Rookie DE Corey Williams had a lot more playing time this game and made some plays to show that he might be a starter next season. How many times can Favre throw an interception in the end zone? In this game, the answer is twice. The interception to CR Rashean Mathis in the end zone was a true stinker (Favre just lost sight of him) and Mathis's second interception appeared to be caused by the cold when Favre's out pass just lost its zip across the field. FS Deon Grant's interception was a great play on Grant's part with perfect timing. How can coach Jack Del Rio defend SS Donovan Darius's attempt to take WR Robert Ferguson's head off? That was the most vicious attempt to intentionally hurt a Packer since DT Warren Sapp broke LT Chad Clifton's hip a couple of seasons ago and it can't be defended. WR Antonio Chatman got his first TD reception for his career, which is great for him since he has played better than now injured WR Robert Ferguson and truly is the 3rd wide receiver. The Packers almost got the onside kick, but that was a long shot anyway. Packers 25, Jacksonville 28.
Overall the Packers should just forget about this game, threaten to amputate the cornerbacks' hands if any of them keep grabbing at the wide receivers, and go win in Minnesota next week.
First Half: Jacksonville scores an easy TD. Who's fault is it? Just about everyone (defensive coaches and players) can take some blame. QB Brett Favre/RB Ahman Green fumble in the red zone (1 of 3 red zone turnovers). Fumbles and Green just seem to go together and there is nothing to be done about it. Then the defensive penalties start...Are the Packers defensive players frustrated or poorly coached or both? All 3 top CBs Al Harris, Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas keep constantly grabbing the receivers. Jacksonville has two of the top DTs in the NFL in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, rookie 3rd string C Scott Wells held his own, and he even handled Henderson one-on-one on a big Green run play. Great heads up play by FS Darren Sharper (everyone on both sides gave up on an apparent incompletion except Sharper who stripped the ball from an offensive lineman who picked up the ball and ran in it for a TD). K Ryan Longwell missed his first field goal within the 40 yard line in a long while and it cost in this game (this again isn't a problem that needs or can be fixed but it cost the Packers big in this game). Overall it was a very poor half with a lot of Packer turnovers and penalties. Packers 10, Jacksonville 14.
Second Half: TE Ben Steele has been useless for weeks, but he caught a couple of short passes in
this game and finally started to show his usefulness. The Packers took advantage of their blocker overload on short yardage running plays to set up the TD pass to WR Donald Driver (who is sneaking up on an outstanding season). They had been overloading blockers to the strong side all season, usually ran for the short gain for the first down, and used that tendency to set up the TD pass. How did the Packers run defense set up a big RB Fred Taylor TD run? Everyone (coaches and players) can take some blame. Sharper blitzed to the wrong side and took himself out of the play (was it his fault or a bad scheme?), DT Cletidus Hunt was blocked by one blocker and pushed out of the hole, NT Grady Jackson was blocked by the left guard one-on-one, if either Hunt or Jackson had occupied more than one blocker then the center couldn't have come out and blocked LB Nick Barnett out of the play, and finally SS Mark Roman (who has had a bad last few games and might have played his way out of the lineup for next season) took a bad angle and couldn't make the tackle. Maybe LB Hannibal Navies should be the middle linebacker (he is bigger than Barnett) because he showed again that he can't cover anybody. Rookie DE Corey Williams had a lot more playing time this game and made some plays to show that he might be a starter next season. How many times can Favre throw an interception in the end zone? In this game, the answer is twice. The interception to CR Rashean Mathis in the end zone was a true stinker (Favre just lost sight of him) and Mathis's second interception appeared to be caused by the cold when Favre's out pass just lost its zip across the field. FS Deon Grant's interception was a great play on Grant's part with perfect timing. How can coach Jack Del Rio defend SS Donovan Darius's attempt to take WR Robert Ferguson's head off? That was the most vicious attempt to intentionally hurt a Packer since DT Warren Sapp broke LT Chad Clifton's hip a couple of seasons ago and it can't be defended. WR Antonio Chatman got his first TD reception for his career, which is great for him since he has played better than now injured WR Robert Ferguson and truly is the 3rd wide receiver. The Packers almost got the onside kick, but that was a long shot anyway. Packers 25, Jacksonville 28.
Overall the Packers should just forget about this game, threaten to amputate the cornerbacks' hands if any of them keep grabbing at the wide receivers, and go win in Minnesota next week.
Thursday, December 16, 2004
Below this post is the current post regarding the Packers/Detroit game. I posted this about Philadelphia right after the game two weeks ago but apparently blogger ate it. So I'm reposting it.
Packers 17, Philly 47. Well forget about that one. Instead of going over the shelling blow-by-blow, lets talk about the...
Offense. By far their worst game of the season. QB Brett Favre had his string of games with a TD pass end, the offensive line was physically beaten, and the receivers didn't get seperation/make plays. Minor minor note: TE Ben Steele dropped his 5-6 pass attempt in the last 3-4 games (replacing injured TE David Martin in the offensive scheme) without catching a pass and he has to be removed from the scheme. Mike Sherman needs to take a close look at this game film and find out what needs to be adjusted. QB Craig Nall has only played in two games this season (the last preseason game and this game). In the preseason, he convinced the Packers that they could safely release QB Tim Couch, and in this game he showed he has some potential. He is QB A.J. Feeley (Miami) good and a pretty good backup QB.
Defense. The secondary played poorly today, but they weren't helped by a very poor defensive scheme (especially on the first TD pass to WR Terrell Owens when they played 20 yards off of him) that employed a lot of zone/cover 2/matador schemes. Just a horrible defensive scheme. Philadelphia followed the Indianapolis game plan of passing for the entire first half and building up a giant lead. This would be awful, except Indianapolis has been torching the entire NFL this season and Philadelphia has a great pass offense, so its not just the Packers problem. Obviously nothing can be wholesale fixed this season, but this is the third 40+ point game allowed this season, so it needs to be fixed for next season. The secondary is pretty set with big contracts for CB Al Harris and FS (maybe 2005 SS?) Darren Sharper and both rookies (CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas) should be better next season. The linebackers need to be fixed; maybe wholesale changes, maybe replacing LB Hannibal Navies (he just doesn't make any plays), maybe something else, etc. The defensive line needs the most work. DE KGB has good games, he played well against Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace last week, but some weeks he isn't a factor. DE Aaron Kampman never gives up on a play and has accumulated some sacks this season. There has been zero push from the interior, where DT Cletidus Hunt has been pulled on passing downs for DT Cullen Jenkins and NT Grady Jackson is the best interior pass rusher. Finding a defensive tackle who can create a pass rush is the top priority. Maybe changing the defensive coaching staff is in the future too.
Everyone in the NFC is playing poorly, except Philadelphia which is battling for best team in the NFL status along with Pittsburgh and New England, so the Packers should still win their division. Forget about this game and get ready to beat Detroit next week at Lambeau.
Packers 17, Philly 47. Well forget about that one. Instead of going over the shelling blow-by-blow, lets talk about the...
Offense. By far their worst game of the season. QB Brett Favre had his string of games with a TD pass end, the offensive line was physically beaten, and the receivers didn't get seperation/make plays. Minor minor note: TE Ben Steele dropped his 5-6 pass attempt in the last 3-4 games (replacing injured TE David Martin in the offensive scheme) without catching a pass and he has to be removed from the scheme. Mike Sherman needs to take a close look at this game film and find out what needs to be adjusted. QB Craig Nall has only played in two games this season (the last preseason game and this game). In the preseason, he convinced the Packers that they could safely release QB Tim Couch, and in this game he showed he has some potential. He is QB A.J. Feeley (Miami) good and a pretty good backup QB.
Defense. The secondary played poorly today, but they weren't helped by a very poor defensive scheme (especially on the first TD pass to WR Terrell Owens when they played 20 yards off of him) that employed a lot of zone/cover 2/matador schemes. Just a horrible defensive scheme. Philadelphia followed the Indianapolis game plan of passing for the entire first half and building up a giant lead. This would be awful, except Indianapolis has been torching the entire NFL this season and Philadelphia has a great pass offense, so its not just the Packers problem. Obviously nothing can be wholesale fixed this season, but this is the third 40+ point game allowed this season, so it needs to be fixed for next season. The secondary is pretty set with big contracts for CB Al Harris and FS (maybe 2005 SS?) Darren Sharper and both rookies (CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas) should be better next season. The linebackers need to be fixed; maybe wholesale changes, maybe replacing LB Hannibal Navies (he just doesn't make any plays), maybe something else, etc. The defensive line needs the most work. DE KGB has good games, he played well against Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace last week, but some weeks he isn't a factor. DE Aaron Kampman never gives up on a play and has accumulated some sacks this season. There has been zero push from the interior, where DT Cletidus Hunt has been pulled on passing downs for DT Cullen Jenkins and NT Grady Jackson is the best interior pass rusher. Finding a defensive tackle who can create a pass rush is the top priority. Maybe changing the defensive coaching staff is in the future too.
Everyone in the NFC is playing poorly, except Philadelphia which is battling for best team in the NFL status along with Pittsburgh and New England, so the Packers should still win their division. Forget about this game and get ready to beat Detroit next week at Lambeau.
Packers 16, Detroit 13. A game they should have won, although Detroit is playing better than the Packers this season, and they won it. How can Detroit be the better team with a worse record and an anemic/pathetic offense? The Packers turn the ball over (-11 turnover differential) while Detroit doesn't (+8) and Detroit's defense is average while the Packers defense is bottom 5 in the NFL. Because Detroit protects the ball on offense and plays solid defense, they have been in a position to win games this season, but if this game was any indication, QB Joey Harrington just can't finish the opponent off in the 4th quarter.
First half: QB Brett Favre continues his offensive malaise. Favre's human and he goes through slumps and this one started in the first quarter in Philadelphia. The offense couldn't get anything going in the first half. It wasn't just Favre, WR Javon Walker was held in check almost the entire game and WR Donald Driver and TE Ben Steele (for about the fifth game in a row) contributed alongside Walker as each had a dropped pass. Could the refs call some more penalties? They were all legitimate penalties, but the refs called this game tight. Detroit's first scoring drive was all penalties. RB Kevin Jones continued to look good. He's been one of the best backs in the NFL during the 2nd half of the season and the Packers missing tackles (DE KGB blew a tackle on Jones's TD run) did help. In the game vs. St. Louis, two DBs ran into each other on a crossing route and WR Issac Bruce ran for about 50 yards after the catch. Same thing happened in this game and WR Az Hakim ran for about 15 yards. The Packers have to fix this because the next three opponents are going to try and exploit this confusion. The defense played poorly (considering they were only trying to stop Detroit) but held them to two field goals on two of the scoring drives. Packers 0, Detroit 13.
Second half: The refs tight calls started helping the Packers and the first scoring drive was fueled almost exclusively by penalties (55 penalty yards and 13 offense yards). Harrington: 2 completions in the 3rd quarter and 0! in the 4th quarter. How can you not come back from a two score deficit against Detroit? Harrington looked awful but the pass coverage was very tight in the half and the run defense was much better (no missed tackles). This was the worst wind I have seen in an NFL game this season. The wind gave an additional 15 yards one direction and took away 15 yards the other. The receivers stop dropping passes and Favre shakes off the slump with a 90 yard TD drive. The wind killed P Nick Harris's last punt and gave the Packers the field position they needed to win the game. Packers 16, Detroit 13.
Overall this was an ugly game to watch. The Packers weren't playing their best, Detroit's offense was inept, and a ton of penalties. Jacksonville is slumping bad (and coming up from Florida to play in Green Bay in December) and should have no chance, but they too have played better than the Packers this season. Jacksonville is very comparable to Detroit, although they are playing better thanks to better QB play. Just need to keep winning and don't have to worry about what your conference foes are doing.
First half: QB Brett Favre continues his offensive malaise. Favre's human and he goes through slumps and this one started in the first quarter in Philadelphia. The offense couldn't get anything going in the first half. It wasn't just Favre, WR Javon Walker was held in check almost the entire game and WR Donald Driver and TE Ben Steele (for about the fifth game in a row) contributed alongside Walker as each had a dropped pass. Could the refs call some more penalties? They were all legitimate penalties, but the refs called this game tight. Detroit's first scoring drive was all penalties. RB Kevin Jones continued to look good. He's been one of the best backs in the NFL during the 2nd half of the season and the Packers missing tackles (DE KGB blew a tackle on Jones's TD run) did help. In the game vs. St. Louis, two DBs ran into each other on a crossing route and WR Issac Bruce ran for about 50 yards after the catch. Same thing happened in this game and WR Az Hakim ran for about 15 yards. The Packers have to fix this because the next three opponents are going to try and exploit this confusion. The defense played poorly (considering they were only trying to stop Detroit) but held them to two field goals on two of the scoring drives. Packers 0, Detroit 13.
Second half: The refs tight calls started helping the Packers and the first scoring drive was fueled almost exclusively by penalties (55 penalty yards and 13 offense yards). Harrington: 2 completions in the 3rd quarter and 0! in the 4th quarter. How can you not come back from a two score deficit against Detroit? Harrington looked awful but the pass coverage was very tight in the half and the run defense was much better (no missed tackles). This was the worst wind I have seen in an NFL game this season. The wind gave an additional 15 yards one direction and took away 15 yards the other. The receivers stop dropping passes and Favre shakes off the slump with a 90 yard TD drive. The wind killed P Nick Harris's last punt and gave the Packers the field position they needed to win the game. Packers 16, Detroit 13.
Overall this was an ugly game to watch. The Packers weren't playing their best, Detroit's offense was inept, and a ton of penalties. Jacksonville is slumping bad (and coming up from Florida to play in Green Bay in December) and should have no chance, but they too have played better than the Packers this season. Jacksonville is very comparable to Detroit, although they are playing better thanks to better QB play. Just need to keep winning and don't have to worry about what your conference foes are doing.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Packers 45, St. Louis 17. QB Brett Favre and RB Najeh Davenport. I haven't talking enough about the great season Favre is having, and I've just been taking his great play for granted. His completion percentage is over 65% again this season, while on pace for 30 TDs again this season. Further, Favre is keeping better care of the ball (only 11 INTs so far this season), while on pace for the fewest sacks in a season. In 2003, Favre had a couple of games (losses) when he seemed he could do no right (week 1 vs. Minnesota, at Arizona, and Turkey Day at Detroit) but he has had none of those games in 2004. This might be the most consistent season of his career. During his MVP seasons, Mike Holmgren would defer if the Packers won the coin toss because he knew Favre was too juiced early in the game and he was better off with the extra possession in the second half after Favre calmed down. Mike Sherman doesn't have to coach that same player anymore. Davenport has been battling injuries all season long, and because of them we had to wait until week 12 for Davenport to really show off this season. Davenport showed off his great speed to accelerate past the line of scrimmage, the Packers offensive line owned St. Louis's defensive line in this game, and he has the strength to shove smaller defensive players (paging S Rich Coady) out of his way in the open field. The third unsung star of the game was the football itself; the Packers had multiple fumbles bounce out of bounds and any one of them could have turned the whole game around. St. Louis defense isn't good at all this season, but the Packers offense still played a nearly perfect game.
The defense was a problem again, although forcing 3 turnovers was a big improvement. Over 400 yards of passing by QB Marc Bulger in the game. Only 47 yards of rushing, but RB Steven Jackson looked good (40 yards on 8 carries) when he had the opportunity. Bob Slovik didn't call a great game; St. Louis caught the Packers with 4 defensive backs on 4 wide receivers a couple of times in the game, the Packers blitzes didn't force much pressure on Bulger, and the coverage was very soft. The defense benefited from zero turnovers by the Packers offense; St. Louis always had to drive the length of the field and the Packers defense gave up no big yardage plays once St. Louis drove into Packer territory. The Packers appeared to turn up their intensity after the Mike Martz last minute time out cost the Packers a fumble recovery. Rookies CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas each had their best games so far; Thomas forced the early fumble which led to Carroll's TD run and Carroll had an interception in the end zone. With FS Darren Sharper's return to the starting lineup, the secondary could turn into the defense's strength in the last 5 games. The only downside was SS Mark Roman probably had his poorest game of the season with a couple of missed tackles (including RB Marshall Faulk's TD reception) but he has been a solid tackler all season (and preseason) long.
The Packers play at Philadelphia next week. Philadelphia should clobber the Packers, but these are the two hottest teams in the NFC at this point. If the Packers seriously believe they can make it to the Super Bowl this season, then they have to find a way to beat Philadelphia this season. If the Packers can avoid committing turnovers and force turnovers like they did against St. Louis, then they can win at Philadelphia. Its common knowledge you can run against Philadelphia's run defense, but actually their pass defense is worse than their run defense this season according to footballoutsiders.com. Unfortunately the Packers defense has been one of the worst in the NFL (thanks again Aaron). For all the Packers might have tried to fix the problems of 4th and 26 from last season's playoff loss, the Packers defense is still suspectible to allowing conversions on 3rd and long this season and is basically playing the same cast of characters in the secondary and at linebacker.
The defense was a problem again, although forcing 3 turnovers was a big improvement. Over 400 yards of passing by QB Marc Bulger in the game. Only 47 yards of rushing, but RB Steven Jackson looked good (40 yards on 8 carries) when he had the opportunity. Bob Slovik didn't call a great game; St. Louis caught the Packers with 4 defensive backs on 4 wide receivers a couple of times in the game, the Packers blitzes didn't force much pressure on Bulger, and the coverage was very soft. The defense benefited from zero turnovers by the Packers offense; St. Louis always had to drive the length of the field and the Packers defense gave up no big yardage plays once St. Louis drove into Packer territory. The Packers appeared to turn up their intensity after the Mike Martz last minute time out cost the Packers a fumble recovery. Rookies CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas each had their best games so far; Thomas forced the early fumble which led to Carroll's TD run and Carroll had an interception in the end zone. With FS Darren Sharper's return to the starting lineup, the secondary could turn into the defense's strength in the last 5 games. The only downside was SS Mark Roman probably had his poorest game of the season with a couple of missed tackles (including RB Marshall Faulk's TD reception) but he has been a solid tackler all season (and preseason) long.
The Packers play at Philadelphia next week. Philadelphia should clobber the Packers, but these are the two hottest teams in the NFC at this point. If the Packers seriously believe they can make it to the Super Bowl this season, then they have to find a way to beat Philadelphia this season. If the Packers can avoid committing turnovers and force turnovers like they did against St. Louis, then they can win at Philadelphia. Its common knowledge you can run against Philadelphia's run defense, but actually their pass defense is worse than their run defense this season according to footballoutsiders.com. Unfortunately the Packers defense has been one of the worst in the NFL (thanks again Aaron). For all the Packers might have tried to fix the problems of 4th and 26 from last season's playoff loss, the Packers defense is still suspectible to allowing conversions on 3rd and long this season and is basically playing the same cast of characters in the secondary and at linebacker.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Starting Packers RB James Jackson!!! If Jackson starts on Monday night, the Packers will have some problems. It sounds like RB Tony Fisher and RB Ahman Green could be available on Monday night, but its too early to tell. Green's injury (ribs) probably will sideline him for a week. Fisher is good enough to carry the load, but his neck stinger is the type of injury that should he let heal for a couple of weeks. The problem with Jackson is not so much is awful career rushing average (barely 3 yards/carry), because the Packers offensive line should help him run like a competant running back (they even made RB Walter Williams look good against Houston), but that he doesn't understand the offense at all and might miss a blocking assignment that leads to a hit on QB Brett Favre. Luckily, St. Louis's defense has looked awful this season, and this is a good time to hide a bushel of injuries at running back until Green and Fisher are fully healthy in another week. The Packers signed RB Chris Robertson to the practice squad as well, but if it comes down to Robertson it could get scary.
Packers 16, Houston 13. The Packers had a lot of first half opportunities, but the offense stalled in Houston territory. In the second half, Houston had plenty of opportunities to put the game away, but their offense couldn't put anything together and gave the Packers one too many opportunities. A five game winning streak is good news, but the Packers are still one of the premier pretenders in the NFL this season. If it weren't for awful awful St. Louis somehow managing a 5-5 record (thanks Seattle!) the Packers would be the number one over achiever in the NFL this season. The Packers defense has to start creating more turnovers for any long term success.
First Half: RB Walter Williams; who knew he was on the roster? The bad news of course is RB Ahman Green's rib injury and he might have to miss a week (similar to the week Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook missed earlier this season with his rib injury). Williams actually ran the ball pretty well in the first half, due to the fact that the Packers offensive line has been kicking ass the last three weeks. If it weren't for two killer holding penalties on LG Mike Wahle during the game, the offensive line (no sacks for the game and 4.3 yards/carry with Williams carrying the load) would have been the unit of the game. Bob Trumpe (he's still around doing the radio commentary) was critical of the Packers run defense, but the yards per carry stats were very skewed by the long scrambles by QB David Carr. The Packers continued the league trend of stopping RB Dominick Davis for a short yards per carry average during this game. LB Hannibal Navies was victimized again this game on the TD pass by Carr to Davis. The play wasn't Navies fault, he was stuck in no man's land (cover Carr or cover Davis), but Navies has been abused in the passing game the past few weeks. CB Al Harris had his second great game in a row. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet, but he neutralized WR Andre Johnson. Johnson had over 100 yards for the game, but Johnson was clearly the most dangerous wide receiver the Packers have seen this season. He should be a constant Pro Bowl invitee with his size and speed, and was clearly the most dangerous player on the field. Additional kudos to rookie CB Ahmad Carroll, because only three Houston players caught passes during the game and his primary assignments of WR Javar Gaffney and WR Corey Bradford caught a combined zero passes in this game. Houston's defense had a great first half; they stopped the Packers offense three times in Houston territory and it only resulted in 3 Packer points and shut down QB Brett Favre on the last drive of the first half, which led to an end of half field goal. Packers 3, Houston 13.
Second Half: The Packers defense takes over. Houston only drove into Packer territory twice in the second half, and both times they were sacked back into Houston territory. Davis couldn't run the ball, Carr didn't scramble for big yards, and receivers were rarely open. If the Packers had forced a turnover or two, it would have been a perfect 10 defensive half. The secondary looks better every week with Carroll in at starting cornerback, and this was rookie CB Joey Thomas's best game (not great, but his best game so far). NT Grady Jackson had another solid game, and DT Cullen Jenkins has worked himself into as many snaps as DT Cletidus Hunt (the Packers primary six man defensive line rotation is DEs R-Kal Truluck, KGB, and Aaron Kampman and DT Jackson, Jenkins, and Hunt). Unfortunately, neither Truluck or Kampman have made many plays, but overall the group is playing as well as they have all season. There have been few plays as sweet in the NFL this season as the TD pass where WR Donald Driver quickly grabs the ball out of the air for the TD pass. RB Tony Fisher can often be confused with Green (similar number and their styles of running are very similar) but the Packers rarely used Fisher in the second half (probably due to his neck stinger). Ho-hum. Another game winning Favre drive, to set up the field goal by K Ryan Longwell. For the second week in a row, Favre made it look easy. Packers 16, Houston 13.
First Half: RB Walter Williams; who knew he was on the roster? The bad news of course is RB Ahman Green's rib injury and he might have to miss a week (similar to the week Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook missed earlier this season with his rib injury). Williams actually ran the ball pretty well in the first half, due to the fact that the Packers offensive line has been kicking ass the last three weeks. If it weren't for two killer holding penalties on LG Mike Wahle during the game, the offensive line (no sacks for the game and 4.3 yards/carry with Williams carrying the load) would have been the unit of the game. Bob Trumpe (he's still around doing the radio commentary) was critical of the Packers run defense, but the yards per carry stats were very skewed by the long scrambles by QB David Carr. The Packers continued the league trend of stopping RB Dominick Davis for a short yards per carry average during this game. LB Hannibal Navies was victimized again this game on the TD pass by Carr to Davis. The play wasn't Navies fault, he was stuck in no man's land (cover Carr or cover Davis), but Navies has been abused in the passing game the past few weeks. CB Al Harris had his second great game in a row. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet, but he neutralized WR Andre Johnson. Johnson had over 100 yards for the game, but Johnson was clearly the most dangerous wide receiver the Packers have seen this season. He should be a constant Pro Bowl invitee with his size and speed, and was clearly the most dangerous player on the field. Additional kudos to rookie CB Ahmad Carroll, because only three Houston players caught passes during the game and his primary assignments of WR Javar Gaffney and WR Corey Bradford caught a combined zero passes in this game. Houston's defense had a great first half; they stopped the Packers offense three times in Houston territory and it only resulted in 3 Packer points and shut down QB Brett Favre on the last drive of the first half, which led to an end of half field goal. Packers 3, Houston 13.
Second Half: The Packers defense takes over. Houston only drove into Packer territory twice in the second half, and both times they were sacked back into Houston territory. Davis couldn't run the ball, Carr didn't scramble for big yards, and receivers were rarely open. If the Packers had forced a turnover or two, it would have been a perfect 10 defensive half. The secondary looks better every week with Carroll in at starting cornerback, and this was rookie CB Joey Thomas's best game (not great, but his best game so far). NT Grady Jackson had another solid game, and DT Cullen Jenkins has worked himself into as many snaps as DT Cletidus Hunt (the Packers primary six man defensive line rotation is DEs R-Kal Truluck, KGB, and Aaron Kampman and DT Jackson, Jenkins, and Hunt). Unfortunately, neither Truluck or Kampman have made many plays, but overall the group is playing as well as they have all season. There have been few plays as sweet in the NFL this season as the TD pass where WR Donald Driver quickly grabs the ball out of the air for the TD pass. RB Tony Fisher can often be confused with Green (similar number and their styles of running are very similar) but the Packers rarely used Fisher in the second half (probably due to his neck stinger). Ho-hum. Another game winning Favre drive, to set up the field goal by K Ryan Longwell. For the second week in a row, Favre made it look easy. Packers 16, Houston 13.
Friday, November 19, 2004
Packers 34, Minnesota 31. Probably the two most evenly matched teams in the NFL this season,
although when WR Randy Moss was healthy and playing alongside QB Daunte Culpepper (playing at MVP
level this season), Minnesota was the better team. Until Minnesota rallied for two 4th quarter
touchdowns, the Packers defense clearly outplayed Minnesota's defense. What happened in the 4th
quarter? Announcer Moose Johnson was absolutely correct that when Culpepper attacked the middle of
the field, Minnesota's offense made big plays. Minnesota had success all game long with TE Jermaine
Wiggins but it really opened up once WRs Marcus Robinson and especially Nate Burleson started working
the middle of the field. CB Al Harris had his best game of the season and CB Ahmad Carroll was ok
for the first three quarters until Burleson started abusing him in the 4th quarter, but FS Bhawoh Jue
(sub for still injured FS Darren Sharper) and the linebackers (all of them, but especially LB
Hannibal Navies) had a lot of trouble in coverage.
First Quarter: The Packers run defense has been much better since NT Grady Jackson returned from
injury (both espn.com and footballoutsiders.com had articles this week spotlighting his play) but the
improved run defense started the week before his return against Detroit (although Detroit's run
offense is not good). The Packers outstanding run blocking offense line from 2003 returned again
this week, keeping defensive players out of the back field. Minnesota P Darren Bennett was great in
San Diego in the 1990s but he is awful now and helped the Packers with every punt he kicked. Packers
7, Minnesota 7.
Second Quarter: After the Packers scored a touchdown, Minnesota almost answered back with a
touchdown, but as Michael David Smith from footballoutsiders.com noted, Jackson busted the 3rd and 2
rush on the Packers 4 yard line, and Minnesota settled for a field goal. The next Packer touchdown
was one of those drives where it all looked too easy; two big runs for RB Ahman Green with giant
rushing lanes, and a play action TD pass to TE Bubba Franks. QB Brett Favre had 4 TDs and 0 INTs for
the game; it was just one of those games when he looked unstoppable. Packers 24, Minnesota 10.
Third Quarter: The Packers defense needs to force and recover more turnovers. This was another game with no recovered turnovers, and it made the game much closer than it really was. The Packer defense held Minnesota twice on their first two possessions and a long Packer drive ended on a failed 4th down conversion (it was a bad spot on the run by FB Nick Luchey, but the Packers had success rushing off tackle all game and it wasn't clear why they didn't call a run off "TE" Kevin Barry's side one more time). WR Donald Driver's fumble on a successful run after a fake handoff to Green led to a quick Minnesota touchdown that brought Minnesota back to life. The Packers offense can't be expected to have zero turnovers every game, and the defense has to force a turnover or two each game to improve the margin for error. Packers 24, Minnesota 17.
Fourth Quarter: The Packers responded, after a big WR Robert Ferguson kickoff return in the 3rd quarter, with a TD drive to add some cushion. But Minnesota finally figured out how to attack the middle of the field with their wide receivers, jsonline.com had an article this week about how rookie CB Joey Thomas was abused badly in this quarter. Jue broke a route and almost had a big interception, but dropped it, early on Minnesota's 16 play TD drive. If the Packers had this one turnover, the turnover battle is evened for the game and the Packers have clobbered Minnesota. Instead it gave Minnesota another opportunity, and eventually led to a tied score. Both Carroll and Thomas are playing like rookies, but you can see the talent each player possesses. It is a lot to ask of a rookie to step in and play at a high level at any position in the NFL, so both players are playing as well as should be expected of them, however, both players should show improvement as this season progresses. Although Jue has played ok this season, his awful 2003 season still hasn't been forgotten and he still hasn't proven that he is a long term answer for the Packers' secondary. Minnesota's defense looked really frustrated on the Packers last TD drive, and they have to be very frustrated that they couldn't stop the Packers on the last drive that led to the game winning field goal. Sometimes in the same situation, Favre is off his game and forces the game losing interception, but Sunday he was on his game and he found the open receivers. Packers 34, Minnesota 31.
although when WR Randy Moss was healthy and playing alongside QB Daunte Culpepper (playing at MVP
level this season), Minnesota was the better team. Until Minnesota rallied for two 4th quarter
touchdowns, the Packers defense clearly outplayed Minnesota's defense. What happened in the 4th
quarter? Announcer Moose Johnson was absolutely correct that when Culpepper attacked the middle of
the field, Minnesota's offense made big plays. Minnesota had success all game long with TE Jermaine
Wiggins but it really opened up once WRs Marcus Robinson and especially Nate Burleson started working
the middle of the field. CB Al Harris had his best game of the season and CB Ahmad Carroll was ok
for the first three quarters until Burleson started abusing him in the 4th quarter, but FS Bhawoh Jue
(sub for still injured FS Darren Sharper) and the linebackers (all of them, but especially LB
Hannibal Navies) had a lot of trouble in coverage.
First Quarter: The Packers run defense has been much better since NT Grady Jackson returned from
injury (both espn.com and footballoutsiders.com had articles this week spotlighting his play) but the
improved run defense started the week before his return against Detroit (although Detroit's run
offense is not good). The Packers outstanding run blocking offense line from 2003 returned again
this week, keeping defensive players out of the back field. Minnesota P Darren Bennett was great in
San Diego in the 1990s but he is awful now and helped the Packers with every punt he kicked. Packers
7, Minnesota 7.
Second Quarter: After the Packers scored a touchdown, Minnesota almost answered back with a
touchdown, but as Michael David Smith from footballoutsiders.com noted, Jackson busted the 3rd and 2
rush on the Packers 4 yard line, and Minnesota settled for a field goal. The next Packer touchdown
was one of those drives where it all looked too easy; two big runs for RB Ahman Green with giant
rushing lanes, and a play action TD pass to TE Bubba Franks. QB Brett Favre had 4 TDs and 0 INTs for
the game; it was just one of those games when he looked unstoppable. Packers 24, Minnesota 10.
Third Quarter: The Packers defense needs to force and recover more turnovers. This was another game with no recovered turnovers, and it made the game much closer than it really was. The Packer defense held Minnesota twice on their first two possessions and a long Packer drive ended on a failed 4th down conversion (it was a bad spot on the run by FB Nick Luchey, but the Packers had success rushing off tackle all game and it wasn't clear why they didn't call a run off "TE" Kevin Barry's side one more time). WR Donald Driver's fumble on a successful run after a fake handoff to Green led to a quick Minnesota touchdown that brought Minnesota back to life. The Packers offense can't be expected to have zero turnovers every game, and the defense has to force a turnover or two each game to improve the margin for error. Packers 24, Minnesota 17.
Fourth Quarter: The Packers responded, after a big WR Robert Ferguson kickoff return in the 3rd quarter, with a TD drive to add some cushion. But Minnesota finally figured out how to attack the middle of the field with their wide receivers, jsonline.com had an article this week about how rookie CB Joey Thomas was abused badly in this quarter. Jue broke a route and almost had a big interception, but dropped it, early on Minnesota's 16 play TD drive. If the Packers had this one turnover, the turnover battle is evened for the game and the Packers have clobbered Minnesota. Instead it gave Minnesota another opportunity, and eventually led to a tied score. Both Carroll and Thomas are playing like rookies, but you can see the talent each player possesses. It is a lot to ask of a rookie to step in and play at a high level at any position in the NFL, so both players are playing as well as should be expected of them, however, both players should show improvement as this season progresses. Although Jue has played ok this season, his awful 2003 season still hasn't been forgotten and he still hasn't proven that he is a long term answer for the Packers' secondary. Minnesota's defense looked really frustrated on the Packers last TD drive, and they have to be very frustrated that they couldn't stop the Packers on the last drive that led to the game winning field goal. Sometimes in the same situation, Favre is off his game and forces the game losing interception, but Sunday he was on his game and he found the open receivers. Packers 34, Minnesota 31.
Saturday, November 13, 2004
I've been offline for a couple of weeks due to a crashed hard drive. I didn't expect it would take me 3 weeks to fix the problem, but I left it to an unmotivated friend to fix it for me. Lucky for me, it was a bye week and therefore a good time to suffer technical difficulties. FS Darren Sharper was able to heal, and the defense comes back with all its starters for the first time since week 1. There are probably no two teams in the NFL more similar then the Packers and Minnesota (great offense and little defense) but Minnesota's offense slips a lot without WR Randy Moss. Not much has happened for the Packers (other than everyone getting a little healthier) expect the release of S Corey Fuller for about the 15th time in the last two seasons and promising CB Chris Johnson who has missed the last two seasons due to injury.
Packers 28, Washington 14. The Packers controlled the first half, but let it slip away from them in the second half. If Washington avoided the stupid illegal shift that cost them a long TD catch by RB Clinton Portis, then the score was Packers 20, Washington 21 and the game is easily lost. That is life in the NFL; you can outplay your opponent all game, but a big play late in the game can cost you the game.
Packers 28, Washington 14. The Packers controlled the first half, but let it slip away from them in the second half. If Washington avoided the stupid illegal shift that cost them a long TD catch by RB Clinton Portis, then the score was Packers 20, Washington 21 and the game is easily lost. That is life in the NFL; you can outplay your opponent all game, but a big play late in the game can cost you the game.
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Packers 41, Dallas 20. Lots of good in this game. The Packers offense continued to roll, although against a struggling Dallas defense, and the Packers had their first win at Lambeau in 2004 (1-3). Some bad in this game too. FS Darren Sharper and CB Al Harris got banged up. Harris was burned in the second half after the injury (the long TD pass to TE Jason Witten comes to mind). Plus QB Brett Favre continues to have one of the crappiest 12 months of his life. First he breaks his thumb, then his father dies, then his brother-in-law dies, he suffers through a couple more injuries (hamstring and hand) before disclosing that his wife has breast cancer. Favre played through his concern for her against Dallas, but this is a very serious illness for Deanna Favre and it would be very understandable if Favre is distracted by it. Hopefully Deanna learned of her illness early and her treatments will be successful.
First Quarter: So far Dallas's offense has been playing well with AARP members QB Vinny Testaverde and RB Eddie George leading the way. Dallas was able to run and more effectively pass against the Packers, even before the injuries to Sharper and Harris. The good news is that the Packers defense is adopting a bend-but-don't-break philsophy (Dallas was held to two field goals on two good 1st quarter drives while overall held to under 50% on third down (5 for 13)). The Packers offense scored on their first 7 possessions and was humming all day. Packers 3, Dallas 6.
Second Quarter: FOX wanted everyone to know that Favre is 1-8 in his career against Dallas. All 8 losses coming in Dallas and occuring during the 1995 season or earlier. Yes, the NFL schedule makers hated the Packers pre-1995 and loved the glam Aikman, Smith, Irvin Cowboys. Although some of those games were playoff games and awarded due to regular season records, how often does one NFL team play 8 straight times at another opponent? This quarter killed Dallas. The Packers offense continued to hum along, while Dallas was stopped on two three-and-outs to kill any momentum they had after a strong offensive 2nd quarter. Packers 20, Dallas 6.
Third Quarter: RB Tony Fisher throws what I am assuming is his first TD pass as a pro to TE Bubba Franks. The Packers are 2-0 in games this season when a RB throws a TD pass (RB Ahman Green threw one in Detroit last week). Dallas responds with a TD of their own, once Testaverde begins connecting up with Witten, but they can't keep up with the Packers offense. The special teams is playing much much better for the Packers this week (especially on kick coverage). Maybe the release of CB James Whitley did send a message to the team last week. Green rips off the 2nd 90+ yard TD run of his career (tying him with RB Bo Jackson on the all time list). Dallas's offense is trying but they can't keep up with the Packers. Packers 41, Dallas 13.
Fourth Quarter: NT Grady Jackson is back. He had one great play in the 1st half, but the Packers's defense is playing worse this week then they did against Detroit last week. This can only help the Packers for the rest of the season and Jackson made plays on his first game back, but his return did not show up on the scoreboard or the defensive stats (the Packers defense didn't create any turnovers either). Dallas scores another TD but this game never was in any doubt after the Packers scored 21 in the 2nd quarter. The Packers's offense eat up a bunch of time (5 minutes) in the middle of the quarter to put the game out of reach. Bad sight: OL Marco Rivera being taken off on a cart during the 4th quarter. Packers 41, Dallas 20.
The Packers have some players returning from injury, but other players getting injured. The Packers are heading to Washington next week, and Washington is struggling this season. The Packers should be favored for the first time in a couple of weeks, but Washington has an ailing offense (only Miami's trainwreck is worse) and all it might need to improve is to play the NFL's third worse defense (the Packers). Rankings courtesy of footballoutsiders.com.
At best, the Packers can only expect to finish 6-2 in the second half. The Packers need to win to keep a path towards a 10-6 season. Anything less isn't likely to make the playoffs. Unfortunately Washington has the 3rd best defense (thanks again footballoutsiders.com) and they will be a very tough challenge.
First Quarter: So far Dallas's offense has been playing well with AARP members QB Vinny Testaverde and RB Eddie George leading the way. Dallas was able to run and more effectively pass against the Packers, even before the injuries to Sharper and Harris. The good news is that the Packers defense is adopting a bend-but-don't-break philsophy (Dallas was held to two field goals on two good 1st quarter drives while overall held to under 50% on third down (5 for 13)). The Packers offense scored on their first 7 possessions and was humming all day. Packers 3, Dallas 6.
Second Quarter: FOX wanted everyone to know that Favre is 1-8 in his career against Dallas. All 8 losses coming in Dallas and occuring during the 1995 season or earlier. Yes, the NFL schedule makers hated the Packers pre-1995 and loved the glam Aikman, Smith, Irvin Cowboys. Although some of those games were playoff games and awarded due to regular season records, how often does one NFL team play 8 straight times at another opponent? This quarter killed Dallas. The Packers offense continued to hum along, while Dallas was stopped on two three-and-outs to kill any momentum they had after a strong offensive 2nd quarter. Packers 20, Dallas 6.
Third Quarter: RB Tony Fisher throws what I am assuming is his first TD pass as a pro to TE Bubba Franks. The Packers are 2-0 in games this season when a RB throws a TD pass (RB Ahman Green threw one in Detroit last week). Dallas responds with a TD of their own, once Testaverde begins connecting up with Witten, but they can't keep up with the Packers offense. The special teams is playing much much better for the Packers this week (especially on kick coverage). Maybe the release of CB James Whitley did send a message to the team last week. Green rips off the 2nd 90+ yard TD run of his career (tying him with RB Bo Jackson on the all time list). Dallas's offense is trying but they can't keep up with the Packers. Packers 41, Dallas 13.
Fourth Quarter: NT Grady Jackson is back. He had one great play in the 1st half, but the Packers's defense is playing worse this week then they did against Detroit last week. This can only help the Packers for the rest of the season and Jackson made plays on his first game back, but his return did not show up on the scoreboard or the defensive stats (the Packers defense didn't create any turnovers either). Dallas scores another TD but this game never was in any doubt after the Packers scored 21 in the 2nd quarter. The Packers's offense eat up a bunch of time (5 minutes) in the middle of the quarter to put the game out of reach. Bad sight: OL Marco Rivera being taken off on a cart during the 4th quarter. Packers 41, Dallas 20.
The Packers have some players returning from injury, but other players getting injured. The Packers are heading to Washington next week, and Washington is struggling this season. The Packers should be favored for the first time in a couple of weeks, but Washington has an ailing offense (only Miami's trainwreck is worse) and all it might need to improve is to play the NFL's third worse defense (the Packers). Rankings courtesy of footballoutsiders.com.
At best, the Packers can only expect to finish 6-2 in the second half. The Packers need to win to keep a path towards a 10-6 season. Anything less isn't likely to make the playoffs. Unfortunately Washington has the 3rd best defense (thanks again footballoutsiders.com) and they will be a very tough challenge.