Packers 2017 Free Agency: Perry, Lang and Tretter

The Green Bay Packers took care of their most important free agent (LT David Bakhtiari) during the season. There are some starters and key rotational players about to hit unrestricted free agency, but I feel much less optimistic about re-signing them once that GM Ted Thompson allows them to test the market. There are plenty that he does re-sign, and maybe some of those players and agents just need the official start of free agency to confirm the market, but there are some players that he has no intention of re-signing.

He's sure to re-sign several of their free agents. But the first three ones I'm looking at are the trickiest of the offseason.

OLB Nick Perry. Since the Packers selected him in the 1st round he's been often injured, sometimes great as a pass rusher, and sometimes great against the run. In 2016, he put it all together for the first time in his career (even the injury part, as he played the final few games with a cast on his hand). After accepting a modest one-year, $5 million contract in 2016 (a pay cut from the cost of picking up his 5th year rookie contract option) he'll be looking for a big pay day this offseason. He's not good enough for the franchise tag, but he should receive a Jamie Collins type contract (four-years, $50 million). That's not too rich for the Packers, they have the cap room and he's worth that type of money based on his 2016 season. He missed a lot of time over his first two seasons, but he's played in 14 games or more in each of the past three seasons. He'll also be nearly impossible to replace in any way other than in the draft (and even then...) I expect he'll be re-signed.

LG T.J. Lang. I think his last time in a Packer uniform was, unfortunately, as he was being driven off the field in Atlanta with a leg injury. GM Ted Thompson doesn't often re-sign a drafted player to a 2nd free agent contract, and this would be Lang's 3rd contract with the Packers. Thompson also hasn't shown much interest in re-signing interior lineman to a new contract that would start or stretch into their mid-30s (Marco Rivera, Scott Wells, Josh Sitton). Lang's a great player who doesn't need to take a discount and should have many teams interested in him. He's been a great Packer and I don't want to see him leave, but I'd be surprised to see him return in 2017.

C J.C. Tretter. The stats love him and he's a quality young center in a free agent class that doesn't have any other ones:

Top 5 under the radar players about to hit free agency:
1. Ricky Wagner
2. J.C. Tretter
3. Chris Baker
4. Mario Addison
5. Kyle Juszczyk

— Cris Collinsworth (@CollinsworthPFF) January 19, 2017

If a team is making a free agent center a priority in free agency, they'll be targeting Tretter. And speaking of injury prone, Tretter's only played in 31 games in his first four NFL seasons, he ended the 2016 season on I.R. and had surgery in January. He's a good player but I only see him as a center, and he's not better then Corey Linsley. Another future compensatory pick for the Packers!

A Way Too Early Look At The 2017 Fantasy Football First Round

The biggest bet game of the year (the Super Bowl) is over, the previous link is from Covers.com, so now I won't be losing any money until March Madness begins. But once again I also lost money on my fantasy football team last season, which was a disaster.

In my final game, I started Jonathan Stewart and Ryan Mathews, both barely ranked in the Top 25 for running backs last season. I had hoped my wide receivers would carry me but DeAndre Hopkins got hit with a case of the Osweilers and A.J. Green missed the last four games of the season. My best non-QB player probably was Stewart! What a terrible season.

My number one problem last year was that I didn't end up with any outstanding running back. I used to see maybe one wide receiver drafted in the first round, and now there were four drafted in the top 10, including my first round pick on Hopkins, because there weren't enough quality running backs to go around. But I expect we'll see a more traditional draft in 2017 because there are so many proven, young running backs available after the 2016 season.

Here's a look ahead based on Matthew Berry's early 2017 rankings. I'll look at the Top 13 players for Packer related reasons:

1.  RB1 Le'Veon Bell. He fell into my draft's second round last year because of an early three game suspension. It seems like a player who gets suspended once is a risk to get suspended again, and he's technically a free agent though the Steelers aren't letting him go anywhere. He's great but I'd prefer either of the next two players.

2. RB2 David Johnson. The Cardinals were awful last season but he was great, which is a good sign that he'll be great again in 2017 no matter what happens around him. His scary knee injury in Week 17, his knee was twisted up like a pretzel, might have been a good sign because it suggests he's close to indestructible. A couple weeks after his MCL sprain, he's stand jumping out of a pool. He's going to be great.

3. RB3 Ezekiel Elliott. Great things were expected from him as a rookie and he delivered. And Dallas is a great place to be with a great young QB, great young offensive line, and a No. 1 WR to distract the defense.

4. WR1 Antonio Brown. He didn't score in 2016 like a No. 1 overall pick, but Martavis Bryant applied for reinstatement, and his return could make his 2017 look like his 2016 was supposed to be.

5. WR2 Odell Beckham Jr. Nothing against him as a player, or him as a side show, but QB Eli Manning was one step closer to finding a fork in his back last season. There aren't a lot of great skill players on the Giants besides Beckham but still, Manning should have been better. I'm not a big fan of Beckham in 2017 because of his quarterback.

6. RB4 LeSean McCoy. A change of coaching staff, change in quarterback, wondering whether WR Sammy Watkins ever be healthy, bad weather Buffalo during my fantasy playoffs... I'd love him in the NFC South, but I'm not sure about him in Buffalo next season.

7. WR3 Mike Evans. He's great and an unstoppable deep threat last season, but I'd have trouble selecting him at this point and passing on the next two players.

8. RB5 Jordan Howard. With a full season as a starter and a hopefully better quarterback situation, he could be outstanding next season. Or he could be a one year wonder and a huge bust. Who knows! I'd take a chance on him.

9. WR4 Julio Jones. How'd he only have 6 touchdowns last season? That seems like a fluke. Even if the Falcons offense takes a step back overall, he could easily double his TD receptions next season anyway.

10. WR5 A.J. Green. It didn't help that he missed 4 games but he wasn't a superstar for most of the season anyway. He'd get his targets and yards but he rarely found the end zone. The Bengals offense looked blah last season. Maybe a healthy Tyler Eifert will help but I'm not liking him as a first round pick in 2017.

11. RB6 Melvin Gordon. I love ex-Badgers but as much as it was fluke that Gordon didn't score a single TD as a rookie, his 12 TDs in 2016 felt like just as much of a fluke. I'm not a fan of him at this spot in the draft.

12. RB7 DeMarco Murray. He found a great place in Tennessee, and the offense could easily improve with some better receivers. I'd be completely happy with him at the end of the first round.

I'm going to No. 13 just so I can include a Packer!

13. WR6 Jordy Nelson. I'd rank him higher because he was so much better later in the season after he shook off the rust. I do worry about how much more punishment his 30+ year old body can take, but he's still great.

20. RB11 Devonta Freeman. I'm a huge fan so I'm including him. This ranking is too low. Ranking him behind Blount and Peterson? I understand the concern that he shares time with Tevon Coleman, but he's going to be great again next season anyway.

Packers Free Agency: The Release of Sam Shields

My previous post was about how I considered whether the Green Bay Packers might change their typically cautious free agent ways if they decide to release CB Sam Shields and then go after one of the top corners in a strong free agent class. Step one happened on Wednesday, they released CB Sam Shields. Step two, an aggressive move in free agency, remains an option. How big a blow was his absence last season while the secondary was shredded on a weekly basis?

Packers released CB Sam Shields today. He has been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL since joining the league. pic.twitter.com/KufNqrOUDE

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) February 8, 2017

Huge. And his absence next season will be huge. From the stand point of on-the-field performance, this is a disastrous move. They can't sign Richard Sherman to replace him (and Revis isn't that player anymore) and basically anyone else is a step down.

But this roster move isn't about his football play, it's about the five documented concussions he's had during his career (along with who knows how many undocumented ones). This is like past ones with TE Jermichael Finley (never re-signed after a spinal injury) and FS Nick Collins (released after a spinal injury) and it hurts just as much as those roster moves. All three of them are great players, in the primes of their careers, and they were cut short due to serious injuries.

The defense has to sort out it's situation at outside LB with three players (Peppers, Perry, Jones) headed to free injury, but having an upgrade at cornerback (not from Shields, but from his replacements last season) is the more important task. There's always the draft but they tried that in 2015 and ended up with Randall and Rollins. Just like with Shields back in 2010, they did better job that year finding an undrafted corner (Gunter). With the salary cap room saved by releasing Shields, it would be best spent targeting a free agent corner who would fit in Capers's system.

Could The Packers Change Their Free Agency Ways For A Cornerback?

The Green Bay Packers don't avoid free agency, they talk to a lot of free agents during the offseason, but they never overpay. If a free agent is available at the right price (like LB Julius Peppers and TE Jared Cook) then it happens once ever other year or two. But they aren't going on a NY Giants-like spending spree no matter what's been reported.

Packers expected to be more aggressive in free agencyhttps://t.co/TwNmssXrxd pic.twitter.com/QGv0LsUjQB

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 27, 2017

Maybe they'll be more active but not more aggressive. The only player they really need to keep happy is QB Aaron Rodgers. But he's under contract for three more years (and he'll probably keep playing beyond 2019) and he hasn't seemed to be demanding a free agency spending spree. The Packers are usually focused primarily on keeping their own free agents.

If the Packers do change their free agent ways this year, the one position that stands out is cornerback. Obviously it's a need (based on last season) but the Packers had a plan with CB Sam Shields as their No. 1 guy and now his career is in doubt because of repeated concussions. The Packers would have a $3,125,000 cap hit if they released him but they might not have any choice and they save $9,000,000 that they could use on a free agent cornerback, in what is a pretty good group of free agent corners.

Over The Cap lists seven unrestricted free agents who could be available. Rams' CB Trumaine Johnson reminds me of Shields as an all-cover, no-tackling type. Texans' CB A.J. Bouye, Johnson, and Bills' CB Stephon Gilmore should all cost more on an annual basis than Shields but prices have gone up since Shields signed his four-year extension. Even players like Jaguars CB Prince Amukamara and Patriots' CB Logan Ryan, who should cost less and aren't as good as Shields, could at least plug the dike and allow the other cornerbacks to move down the depth chart.

If anything, the Packers will probably address this position in the draft with someone like Washington's CB Sidney Jones or Iowa's CB Desmond King. But this is an unusual situation at cornerback with Shields so maybe his injury forces the Packers to do something they don't normally do.

The Packers Were Beaten By Falcons in NFC Championship Game By A Lot

It's hard for the Green Bay Packers and all of their fans to start Sunday with a whole lot of optimism and then have all of the adrenaline leave your body by the end of the day.

Finality of losing in NFL playoffs is stark. One day losing game, next day packing boxes to leave for months, some never to return again.

— Andrew Brandt (@AndrewBrandt) January 23, 2017

The Packers and mostly QB Aaron Rodgers pulled a formerly 4-6 team through an eight game winning streak to make it to the NFC Championship game. But there were problems under the surface and they all seemed to take center stage against the Falcons.

"I think it's a credit to the Falcons and frankly we ran out of gas." Mike McCarthy.

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) January 23, 2017

It felt like that first round bye made all the difference. The Falcons were mostly healthy while the Packers were losing players due to injury left and right. How much of that was due to having to play an extra playoff game (against a great opponent) and having that one extra week to rest?

Losing CB Micah Hyde in the 2nd quarter from a paper thin secondary was horrible. DT Letroy Guion finished up the last few minutes of the game at right guard because the Packers ran out of offensive lineman (Taylor, Lang and Bulaga were all hurt). Holding WR Jordy Nelson's ribs together with military-grade kevlar was kind of symbolic of the game. The Packers just ran out of gas.

On offense: They played OK but they had a couple uncharacteristic problems. They didn't do a good job of picking up the blitz, and I haven't seen the receivers drop that many receptions in a while. In someways, the drops are nothing new; TE Jared Cook seems obligated to drop every third pass to mix in with his great receptions. The fumble near the goal line by FB Aaron Ripkowski hurt too. But these problems alone didn't decide the game.

Special teams: K Mason Crosby missed his first FG attempt in the playoffs since 2010. Again, he didn't cost them the game, but they couldn't afford to miss out on any points.

On defense: The defense had to slow them down, make them settle for field goals, like the did to the Cowboys the week before. Instead the pass rush didn't get anywhere near QB Matt Ryan, which was especially a problem on 3rd downs, they didn't force any turnovers, and the Falcons scored a touchdown on nearly every drive. Other than the long TD reception by WR Julio Jones when he ran through a couple tackles, the Packers did a good job at preventing the big plays. But it didn't do them any good because the Falcons were marching down the field. The Falcons spread the ball around through the air, and were still able to take advantage of Jones against CB Ladarius Gunter, who's had a fantastic season considering he wasn't expected to be more than the No. 4 CB this season. He has a role on the defense but not against No. 1 wideouts. And I lost count of all the missed tackles. The entire team struggled but the defense fell apart.

While this could be viewed as another lost opportunity (Mike McCarthy now has a record of 1-3 in NFC Championship games) another way to look is that this was a flawed team (especially in the secondary) that still got within a game of another Super Bowl. It was a great season, even if it didn't end up with a trip to Houston and another championship.

Everyone Says The Falcons Will Beat The Packers

Statistically, the Falcons have been a better team over the course of the 2016 season, and they should defeat the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. Of course, the Packers haven't lost since November and are in the midst of "run the table" but the Falcons haven't lost since early December and their defense has been playing great over their past several games. So maybe those two hot streaks will cancel each other out and it'll come down to who's the better team. Statistically, the Falcons are better.

Patriots: 43%
Falcons: 25%
Packers: 16%
Steelers: 15%https://t.co/cuns5pk02n

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) January 17, 2017

While I was worried about facing the Giants in the cold at Lambeau, or having to win a game in Seattle, I wasn't worried about playing in either Dallas or Atlanta under a roof. QB Aaron Rodgers thrives in those games, even if his Georgia Dome record is only 2-2, he's been lights out.

The big concern is injuries. Nelson, Adams and Allison are all still maybes and if all three can't play, that's a big problem. Cobb's been playing fantastic since taking a couple weeks off to heal late in the regular season, but Davis and Janis have done basically nothing this season. Janis might just live for the postseason, but that's not really something to count on. This could either be an OK situation or a big problem.

Even if the situation at receiver is the worst case scenario, at least Rodgers can lean more on TE Jared Cook and his running backs. Also, add to the list below that the Packers didn't have RB Christine Michael last time.

The following Packers did not play vs. Falcons in regular season:
Clay Matthews
Ty Montgomery
Jared Cook
Top 2 CBs
All likely to play Sunday

— Justin Felder (@Justin_FOX5) January 16, 2017

QB Matt Ryan did shred the Packers defense in their early season match-up but that was the start of a four game losing streak during which the secondary completely fell apart. It's still the same cast of characters in the secondary (minus Morgan Burnett, who appears likely to miss the game with a quad injury) but they've not been as bad over the past couple months. Hopefully they can just hang on. 

Facing Dallas in Dallas, and Atlanta in Atlanta, is a challenge but those were the exact match-ups I was hoping they would face. Injuries and an MVP season from Matt Ryan are both tough to overcome, and the odds are against them, but this is the tough road to the Super Bowl and I'm very optimistic that the Packers will win in Atlanta.

What Are The Packers Like Without Jordy Nelson?

So the real bad news from after the Green Bay Packers' victory over the Giants:

#Packers WR Jordy Nelson suffered at least two fractured ribs in the win over #Giants, sources say. Will take an incredible effort to play.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 9, 2017

WR Jordy Nelson is the No. 3 ranked receiver according to Football Outsiders and led the NFL with 14 touchdowns. What's more impressive is that most of his production came during "run the table" time. He was so much better in the latter part of the season, and there's no way they're better without him than with him.

The good news is that the Packers did score 38 points against the Giants last weekend without him. But the bad news is that the offense fell off a cliff in 2015 without him. Assuming he cannot play in Dallas, the offense should look like they did in the 2nd half against the Giants instead of the struggling 2015 unit.

WR Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. Without Nelson in 2015, both receivers struggled and Adams was a disaster. But 2016 is a different season for Adams. Though he's far from a perfect receiver (he's dropped three TD passes over the past few games) he's much better playing the role of a short(er) route runner. Cobb looked like a different man after having taken a couple weeks off to rest and playing exclusively in the slot against an over-matched nickel corner.

WR Geronimo Allison. If he's dropped a pass this season, I don't remember it. He's like the anti-Adams, and he's taken over the role the Packers seemed to foist onto Adams in 2015 as a deep threat. He doesn't draw a lot of attention in coverage and he's a good route runner (without a lot of speed). He'll kind of take over the James Jones role from last season.

TE Jared Cook. What a difference he's made. When Nelson was out last season, I expected the Packers would lean heavily on Eddie Lacy and the tight end position to make up some of the production. But Lacy struggled with his weight in 2015 and TE Richard Rodgers just can't do too much on offense. But Cook can truly replace some of what Nelson provided and he's been a major part of the "run the table" offense.

RB Ty Montgomery. Somehow he avoided destroying all the ligaments in his knee when he got twisted up like a pretzel in the 2nd half against the Giants, so he's still a factor. He's what I hoped Lacy could have been as a rushing threat and a receiver out of the backfield.

RB Christine Michael. Oh, the burst through the line. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the field (he's not better than Montgomery) but when he finds a running lane, he explodes through it. He'll only get a few touches, but he'll be a home run threat when it happens.

As much as I'll miss seeing Nelson in Dallas (assuming that's the case), the additions of Cook, Montgomery and Michael make up for it in ways that the Packers didn't have on their roster in 2015 (Montgomery was out most of the 2015 season).

Packers Win Wild Card Round Over The Giants, 38-13

The Green Bay Packers aren't known for their slow starts but it does happen from time-to-time. They played a very sloppy first half against the Lions in Week 17. Against the Giants, they spent the first 25 minutes of game time with the offense firmly left back in the locker room. And then they lost WR Jordy Nelson to a rib injury! With about 5 minutes to go in the first half, the Packers offense had somewhere around 7 yards of total offense, for the game!

The defense was in trouble too. QB Eli Manning was accurate on his passes for their first two possessions and the Giants were moving up-and-down the field. Luckily the cold ball was a problem for them and there were multiple dropped passes (one on 3rd down and one in the end zone). The Giants only had 6 points (two field goals) to show for what should have been at least two field goals and a touchdown.

Surprisingly, it was the often absent special teams unit that gave the Packers their first boost. A big kickoff return by WR Jeff Janis after the second Giants field goal flipped the field position battle and pinned the Giants inside their 10 yard line. Then the defense had a big three-and-out, Micah Hyde had a nice punt return to the Giants 38 yard line, and QB Aaron Rodgers found WR Davante Adams in the end zone on a perfect pass just past the defender (who was all over him) and the length of Adams's arms.

Monday morning mood 💪💪#NFLPlayoffs #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/4yhoGHfqRn

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 9, 2017

The Giants had completely dominated the first 25 minutes of the game but they hadn't built a significant lead. All it took was one touchdown pass to take it away. After the Packers defense forced another punt, Rodgers happened again:

🔥😲🏈👀 The Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary trilogy#GoPackGo #Packers #NYGvsGB pic.twitter.com/TzPv2DwiNK

— The Fanatics View (@thefanaticsview) January 9, 2017

Then it was an 8 point deficit at halftime. That felt like a dagger but the Giants came out strong in the 2nd half. The Packers punted on their first 2nd half possession. Then they got stopped on 4th down on their second possession, gave the Giants great field position, and a blown coverage handed the Giants a long touchdown pass to make it 13 to 14.

And then the Packers stomped all over the Giants for the rest of the game. From the 5:16 mark in the 3rd quarter, the Packers outscored the Giants 24-0. Nothing worked for the Giants with two three-and-outs, a completely shredded New York Pass Defense, and even their special teams fell apart with a kickoff return run out of bounds at their 3 yard line. The Giants have the best defense that made the playoffs this season (only the Broncos were better during the regular season) and Rodgers completely shredded them.

It's hard to judge the players on this game. The defense was a complete wreck early in the game and they were only saved by some dropped passes, while the offense couldn't do anything (4 first half sacks and a lot of punts). And then over the last 20 minutes of the game, each unit was unstoppable. Which of them will show up in Dallas next week?

This was a great win and a little bit therapeutic for two previous home playoff losses to QB Eli Manning. It's not a game that could be taken for granted and (eventually) the Packers brought their "A game" (2nd half edition). The Cowboys have had a great season and they won't be taken for granted, but the Packers are rolling as they make their plans to head down to Dallas next week.

Packers (10-6) Win The NFC North Title in Detroit, 31-24

Breathe a sign of relief Mr. Run The Table:

Leader of the Pack. #NFCNorthChamps #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/zjZzKtlprj

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 2, 2017

No one's been better over the last six games than QB Aaron Rodgers, as the Packers turned a 4-6 record and a long-shot playoff dream into a 10-6 run the table reality. The offense was sloppy in the first half against the Lions, in parts because of penalties and the desire to hide RB Ty Montgomery off the field. In the second half, Montgomery played a lot more and everything started working, even though he didn't end up with a huge stat line (61 yards from scrimmage). The threat of a running game (Aaron Ripkowski doesn't count) is a huge advantage as it opens up the field.

About WR Geronimo Allison. Basically what we saw from him against the Lions was the same thing he's been doing since the preseason. He's not blazing fast, but he runs good routes and he doesn't drop the ball. He's moved into the role the Packers were trying to give to WR Trevor Davis, who hasn't been seen returning punts or running routes for the past several weeks because he couldn't stop dropping and fumbling the ball. Cobb's absence has opened up the No. 3 WR spot temporarily for Allison and he should be a factor in the playoffs if Cobb isn't ready next week.

The defense isn't as bad as it was in 2011 or 2013 (really, those were some dark times) but it's still not good. The pass rush was great early in the season but it's faded over the past few games while two of their best pass rushers have dealt with injuries (LB Clay Matthews will have shoulder surgery in the offseason, LB Nick Perry is playing with a clubbed hand after December hand surgery). The run defense isn't as good as it was back in September but it can be stout when it wants to be with Daniels, Clark and Guion in the middle. Also, DT Mike Pennel is eligible to return. It isn't important to have him back against the Giants (who can't run the ball) but he'll be welcome if they have to travel to Dallas the following week. Of course, the big story is the cornerbacks.

I've been pleasantly surprised by CB Ladarius Gunter this season, and he's had some good moments, but as the only competent cornerback this season, it seems more like he's been avoided because the opposite side of the field has been so poorly defended. It looked scary on Sunday, but CB Quinten Rollins appears to be doing well after his neck injury, though I'm not counting on either him or CB Damarious Randall next week. As poorly as those two have played when healthy, I've been wondering for the past few weeks whether they'd be better of having DB Micah Hyde outside at corner and S Marwin Evans in the dime role. But if Randall and Rollins can't play, they'll need a couple more DBs for depth, which means CB Josh Hawkins will be active and they might have to promote Waters or Whitehead from the practice squad. This group isn't going to turn into a strength over the remainder of the playoffs, but it might hold up against a struggling Giants passing attack.

They've done a great job this season just to hold it all together after a mid-season collapse, and respond with a six game winning streak to advance to the playoffs. But all the remaining playoff teams have problems on their roster at one position or another. If their offense can keep rolling (and keep avoiding turnovers) and the defense can just be decent, then they can make a run in the playoffs.

Packers (9-6) Build Big Lead, Fade In 4th Quarter, Beat Vikings in Lambeau, 38-25

The talk that QB Aaron Rodgers is in the mix for MVP is nice but it ignores his mid-season slump and a couple early season games when he couldn't stop fumbling the football. Though he's finishing up the 2016 season on a hot streak.

Over the past few games, with the return of TE Jared Cook from injury and the elevation of Ty Montgomery to starter at running back, the offense has transformed from good to great. A few weeks ago, I knew they needed to find some threat of a running game to open up the passing game, and Montgomery has provided a legitimate rushing threat that defenses have to consider. The return of Cook, as a hybrid WR/TE who always has a few inches height advantage over any defender, has been an additional wrinkle. But it's really been the effective running game that's allowed some wide open spaces for Jordy Nelson downfield.

FINAL: @packers win their 5th straight! #GoPackGo #MINvsGB pic.twitter.com/GKK45b2zrx

— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2016

The injuries are starting to pile up (RT Bryan Bulaga and CB Ladarius Gunter both left the game early) though they are something that every NFL team is dealing with at this point. The real problem is that the cornerbacks aren't getting any better.

CB Damarious Randall was benched last week but he ended up playing a lot after Gunter was injured. It looks like his confidence (or his knowledge of the defensive schemes) are shot. He spent a lot of time looking around at his teammates after a Viking receiver (usually WR Adam Thielen) torched him. Unfortunately CB Quinten Rollins is just as ineffective, more because of bad technique (getting turned around by a receiver or not enough recovery speed). To be fair, CB Micah Hyde gave up a late touchdown reception too. Other than giving the undrafted rookies a shot (which isn't a good option at all) or moving a safety or two to cornerback (again, not a good idea this late in the season), there's not much to do other than stick with those top three cornerbacks.

And that is the biggest issue going forward. They still need to beat the Lions next week. Then how can these cornerbacks possibly hold up over a four game playoff run to the Super Bowl? Every contender has some significant weakness but being bad against any NFL passing attack is a big problem. I'm enjoying the current winning streak and looking forward to a big game next week against the Lions, but anything afterwards would just be gravy. This defense doesn't look good enough to hold up for a playoff run.

Packers (8-6) Survive The 4th Quarter, Hang Onto Defeat The Bears, 30-27

I'm writing this after the Redskins lost at home to the Panthers on Monday night. With the loss, the Redskins fell out of the final Wild Card spot and behind the Green Bay Packers in the playoff standings. The Redskins are one of four teams (along with the Lions, Buccaneers, and Vikings) battling the Packers for two playoff spots (the second Wild Card spot and NFC North title). All four of those teams lost this weekend, except the Packers, who now can win the NFC North title by winning their last two games.

So losing a big 17 point lead on the road against the last-place Bears looks embarrassing but what's really important is the win. Something none of their playoff rivals could do in Week 15.

QB Aaron Rodgers doesn't look quite right with injuries to both legs. WR Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes. WR Randall Cobb was questionable right up until game time, and he's obviously hurt because he wasn't even targeted once against the Bears. Luckily Rodgers had an explosive ground game (WR/RB Ty Montgomery!) because none of his wide receivers were useful to him. Except for WR Jordy Nelson, who also had a big drop, but made up for it with this great route which turned what should have been an overtime game into a last second win.

The perfect way to start your week!@AaronRodgers12 goes DEEP to @JordyRNelson to set up the victory!#GoPackGo https://t.co/cdBHeIYow0

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 19, 2016

Rodgers was really good and that pass to Nelson was great, but the story was Ty Montgomery. If his position change from WR to RB wasn't official, it should be now. His ability to find openings in space and break tackles makes him the No. 2 weapon behind Nelson. Adams will bounce back and TE Jared Cook has quietly become a dangerous option since he returned from injury. If they can get anything from Cobb down the stretch, this offense has suddenly become very dangerous.

The defense struggled against QB Matt Barkley, of all people. He had a big statistical game (except for the 3 INTs plus one fumble) and he was very good at directing their offense (when he wasn't turning the ball over). The pass rush wasn't much of a factor because Barkley was able to get the ball out so quickly. That was made possible because CB Damarious Randall was giving so much cushion to the receivers he was covering. Barkley seemed to ignore CB Ladarious Gunter almost the entire game and focused on throwing to whoever Randall was covering.

The coaches noticed too and Randall was benched during the 4th quarter. Unfortunately his replacement was CB Quinten Rollins, who was torched just as badly as Randall. Both corners gave up too much ground at the snap and seemed more concerned about getting beat deep than giving up a short pass. But it was those short passes that wrecked everything the Packers were trying to do on defense.

This isn't a new story. The pass defense has been a problem all season long. CB Sam Shields is badly missed while Randall and Rollins have regressed in their second seasons. There isn't an obvious replacement without moving CB Micah Hyde from his current hybrid role into a true outside corner, but that potentially weakens two positions. Randall had a bad game against the Bears but he's had better games in the past, and he remains their best option for the rest of the season.

They should be pumped for their home finale of 2016 against the Vikings, who looked like they had completely quit on the season when they got demolished by the Colts in the first half last week. They can't just assume the Lions will lose in Dallas and they need to beat the Vikings, and then they can focus on beating the Lions in Detroit on New Year's Day.

Packers (7-6) Clobber The Seahawks, 38-10, In Lambeau

I was optimistic about this game though the Green Bay Packers entered it as an underdog and the Seahawks have statistically been a much better team this season. But you can throw stats out the window when it comes down to one game, and one team showed up with their worst performance of the year.

Seattle Seahawks-Green Bay Packers Final Score: Blizzard of interception... #12thMan https://t.co/ofThxHQsZj pic.twitter.com/1FMLvSOoG1

— Seahawks Report (@seahawks_fanly) December 12, 2016

One stat that defined this game; turnovers. Seattle had 6 turnover and the Packers had none.

Even if the turnover battle was even, the Packers might have had an edge. Their offensive line is the team's unsung MVP and they kept QB Aaron Rodgers clean for almost the entire game. He had plenty of time to wait for a receiver to get open as the pass rush wasn't a problem. CB Richard Sherman was his usual All-Pro self, but the Seahawks badly missed FS Earl Thomas. His replacement, FS Steven Terrell, didn't provide the same play making at all. That's a tough role to fill but Seattle's defense didn't have anyone to fill it.

TE Jimmy Graham, who I worried about coming into this game, didn't catch his first pass until midway through the 4th quarter. But he was a factor on the first INT, when Graham slipped and SS Morgan Burnett jumped in front of him for the interception. Though the morning's snow was all cleared away by game time, the Seahawks still seemed to have trouble with their footing. Burnett's INT was a great play by him, but the next 4 INTs were a series of missed balls and deflections that landed right into a Packer defender's hands. Each defender did a great job to keep their eye on the ball, but it just bounced their way all game long. Seattle had an opening drive for a field goal, and scored a late garbage time touchdown, but otherwise almost everything was working for the Packers' defense. It was a strange sight, considering how the defense fell apart during their recent four game losing streak.

The Packers had to keep winning, and they did it. Now they finish the season with the rematch stretch against the NFC North, three games they probably have to win. They can move ahead of the Vikings (7-6) in a must-win game in two weeks at Lambeau but they can't over look the Bears next week in Chicago, despite the fact they haven't lost in Chicago since 2010. The Bears did beat them last season and they're still playing hard for their coaches and fans.

The big problem remains the Lions, who sit 2 games ahead in the standings with only 3 remaining. However, the Packers finish their regular season on a must-win game in Detroit, so they can close the gap by one game then (and they have the tie-breaker due to the earlier win over the Lions in Lambeau). Meanwhile, the Lions other remaining two games are brutal (at Giants, at Cowboys).

And worst of all is the injury to QB Matthew Stafford's throwing hand. That is a major problem for them against any NFL team for the rest of the season. QB Derek Carr looked terrible last week trying to throw with an injured finger on his throwing hand. QB Carson Palmer would disagree but his finger injury last season held back the Cardinals' offense over the final few games. The Lions will try to remain positive but that is a major problem for them.

What To Expect When The Packers Host The Seahawks

I've been dreading this game because the Seahawks keep looking better each week. There are some odd things about this match-up, such as that the Seahawks' leading rusher will be playing for the Packers. As I looked closer at the match-ups, there are some major concerns and the Seahawks are 3 point favorites for a good reason, but there are reasons to be optimistic.

Prayers Up For @Earl_Thomas 🙏🏾https://t.co/BFQNemTNLx pic.twitter.com/6PAd8INzLV

— Richard Sherman (@RSherman_25) December 5, 2016

The loss of FS Earl Thomas, one of their best defensive players over the past several seasons, is a huge blow. In his place is FS Steven Terrell, who was released by the Jaguars and Texans before earning a spot with the Seahawks, and this will be his 2nd NFL start. On what might be a snowy field. He'll have a lot of help from his talented defensive teammates but his lack of experience could help the Packers.

Football Outsiders currently has the Seahawks ranked as the 5th best defense, just below the Eagles, who the Packers played pretty well against two weeks ago. Though the wheels have seem to come off the Eagles D over the past couple games. The Packers did well against the Eagles by holding up against their pass rush (except for rookie RG Jason Spriggs, who struggled against All-Pro DT Fletcher Cox, though RG T.J. Lang might return this week). If the Packers can protect QB Aaron Rodgers, then they should have some success against them.

The defense is a bigger concern. Their outside pass rush is weakened by the loss of OLB Nick Perry and who knows who might be healthy to play at the other LB spots. While Seattle's offense is only ranked 13th overall, that's about the same as the Lions and Colts. The Lions tore apart the secondary while the Colts only did OK (Luck was intercepted twice). The good news is that against the Lions their secondary was falling apart with injuries, and it's somewhat stable at the moment since CB Damarious Randall has returned. They might do better against WR Doug Baldwin but TE Jimmy Graham is problem. And QB Russell Wilson has been running better the past couple weeks too. RB Thomas Rawls had a huge game last week against the Panthers, but he's their 4th biggest concern (at best). It'll be a small victory if they can keep them under 30 points, though if the weather's bad, then the game might be low scoring.

If the Packers win, it'll be a close win, but they have a chance, and I'm optimistic.

Packers (6-6) Beat The Texans In The Snow, 21-13

It's hard to arrive at any conclusions about the Green Bay Packers during a snow game when the elements turned the ordinary into a challenge. Each team had some forgettable moments with turnovers and bad play from their secondaries that could have either made a game of it for the Texans or turned it into a blow out for the Packers. Sometimes it looked like the players were on skis. FB Aaron Ripkowski had a Texans's defensive lineman sliding alongside him on his touchdown run. On the touchdown pass to WR Jordy Nelson, LG Lane Taylor was pushed back like a blocking sled (Rodgers rolled out to his left to avoid him) and slid back a couple feet while standing straight up.

Hard to top watching the @packers score in the #snow @LambeauField#thecrowdgoeswild pic.twitter.com/5li4vJJBVZ

— Mike Seidel (@mikeseidel) December 4, 2016

The offense still can't run the ball much and it's kind of strange how it's hard to tell whether its RB Christine Michael or WR Wes Montgomery carrying the ball. No receiver other than Nelson had more than 19 yards receiving and WR Davante Adams had one of those forgettable home games (1 catch on 7 targets) that he had too often last season. The offensive line was great in protection (1 sack, 4 QB hits) and rookie RG Jason Spriggs looked a lot better this week in place of T.J. Lang than he did last week, when he had to hold off All-Pro DT Fletcher Cox. They didn't have much success on 3rd down (33% conversion rate) which is why they lost the time of possession battle and didn't have much offensive yardage (309 in total) for the game.

A long final drive helped push QB Brock Osweiler's stats up to about the same as Rodgers, and it soured what was looking like a decent performance by the Packers' secondary. While it still didn't look great for Osweiler, remember that he's arguably the worst full time starting QB in the NFL and the Texans' passing "attack" is also the worst. The run defense was weirdly good; great most of the time on early downs but then they would give up big chunks of yards (multiple times for 1st downs) on long draw plays that shouldn't have worked that well. They're looking much better against lesser offensives but they haven't turned the corner either.

It was a game they had to win to keep their weak playoff dreams alive. Onward next week to face the Seahawks in a much tougher game when they'll need everything to go right for them in order to win it.

Packers (5-6) End Losing Streak, Beat Eagles in Philly, 27-13

The Green Bay Packers entered their Monday night game on a four game losing streak. The Eagles were ranked No. 2 overall in DVOA according to Football Outsiders and were far and away the best team at home this season. So, of course, the Packers were in control for the entire game and cruised to a 27-13 victory. Unfortunately there were a couple of dark clouds.

Rodgers: I hurt my hamstring on the first drive in the second half when I was extending the play...I'll be good to go. #GBvsPHI

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 29, 2016

And LB Clay Matthews injured his shoulder. He's not the same player anymore but with all the injuries at ILB (both Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez missed this game) it would be a huge loss if he couldn't play next week. I'd think Rodgers's hamstring injury would have to be very bad for him to miss any playing time, but it should limit his ability to run as he had been doing all season.

This might have been the offense's best game of the season, though they still can't run the ball (even with their 1st rushing TD from a running back). Rookie RG Jason Spriggs had his first NFL start in place of T.J. Lang, and he was asked to take on All Pro DT Fletcher Cox. He struggled, he was pushed deep into the backfield on multiple plays and Cox got free on a stunt that led to a personal foul, but later in the game C Corey Linsley started helping on double-teams. I was ready to give up on WR Davante Adams after the first three weeks but he keeps getting better as the season goes on, though he still doesn't have the break out speed to separate on deep routes. RB Christine Michael was only in for a few snaps and the sooner he can earn the trust of the offensive coaches for more playing time, the better. Considering how well the Eagles's defense has been this season, this was a spectacular game for the offense.

The defense wasn't epic (13 points, 292 yards allowed) but it looked epic in comparison to what's been on the field over the past four weeks. During that four game slide, they faced three Top 10 pass offenses, according to Football Outsiders (Falcons #3, Redskins #6, Titans #8), and all three shredded them. Their loss to the Colts will stand out all season long as one in which they just didn't show up as a team, but those three road games, against top pass offenses while their own secondary was dealing with injuries, was a disaster. The return of CB Damarious Randall helped, but the Eagles were missing a bunch of skill players (RB Ryan Mathews, WR Nelson Agholor; WR Jordan Matthews was injured during the game) and turned a weak offense into a toothless one.

The Eagles entered this game ranked No. 22 overall in pass offense according to Football Outsiders. The Packers' remaining opponents (Texans-No. 32, Seahawks-No. 7, Bears-No. 21, Vikings-No. 14, Lions-No. 9) don't have nearly the passing firepower as the Falcons, Redskins and Titans. The Seahawks remain a tough match-up, but the Seahawks and Eagles are ranked about the same by DVOA (No. 1 and No. 2 according to Football Outsiders entering this week) and the Packers were in control for nearly the entire game in Philly. There's no reason they can't do it again in two weeks against the Seahawks in Lambeau. While the Vikings and Lions present some problems, the fact that neither of those teams can run the ball at all is a big help.

Aaron Rodgers thinks the Packers can win out. https://t.co/3YOoIp6EB3 pic.twitter.com/1oH0sklvbs

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) November 23, 2016

It's not likely that they'll actually win out and finish 10-6 but their win over the Eagles showed it's possible. One step at a time, beat the Texans next week and we'll see.

Packers (4-6) Keep Losing, Fourth Straight Loss, This Time Its the Redskins 42-24

In their first two losses of the season to the Vikings and Cowboys, turnovers by the offense doomed them. Then in their loss to the Colts, it was basically everything (offense, defense, special teams) coming out flat. And in three of their last four losses (Falcons, Titans, and now Redskins), the offense kept them in the game (their special teams have done nothing positive this season) but their pass defense has just collapsed.

The pass rush is part of the problem, though they usually get at least one big play per week from Julius Peppers, Nick Perry and Mike Daniels. But it's the secondary that has fallen apart. At the end of this loss to the Redskins, the only healthy cornerback on the field was LaDarius Gunter, and even he gave up a long touchdown reception. CB Quinten Rollins played in the past couple games, but he's still listed each week on the injury report and it's obvious he's playing through his groin injury. 

The @Redskins answer back!@KirkCousins8 to @PierreGarcon for the 70-YARD TOUCHDOWN! #GBvsWAS https://t.co/MfIzZCoO9q

— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2016

There's not much to hope for until DC Dom Capers finds some solution on defense. They aren't going to be great but they shouldn't be giving up 40+ points per game either. At least the offense has been playing well, despite the lack of any running game. The return of TE Jared Cook and the injury to RG Don Barclay (with rookie Jason Spriggs as his replacement) made the offense better this week.

They'll have an extra day next week (in Philadelphia on Monday night) to get ready, and QB Carson Wentz is the worst QB they've seen in a while. The Packers's secondary is obviously shaky and they've drawn the bad luck of facing five Top 10 pass offenses according to Football Outsiders (Falcons #2, Cowboys #3, Titans #6, Redskins #8, Lions #10) and having lost to four of them. They faced three of those teams during their four game losing streak. They still have the Seahawks (#9) and the Lions (#10) waiting to torch their secondary, but if there is a silver lining, most of their other remaining opponents are having trouble passing the ball (Eagles #23, Texans #32, Bears #21, Vikings #15). The NFC North title and the playoffs look out of reach for the first time since 2008, but I'd like to see them win again and get back to .500 for the season.

Packers (4-5) Have Now Lost 4 of 5, Lose in Tennessee to the Titans, 47-25

The 2016 season has been a major disappointment and it continues to trend downward for the Green Bay Packers. They've just lost their second consecutive game to an AFC South opponent with a losing record and once again allowed an early touchdown to fall quickly behind by 7 points.

Against the Titans, on their first offensive play, I don't know if it was sloppy defense or great blocking, LT Taylor Lewan took out both DT Mike Daniels and FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix before RB DeMarco Murray was off to the races.

With this 75-yd TD, @DeMarcoMurray has tied Earl Campbell's Titans franchise record w/ a rush TD in 5 straight games.https://t.co/fSRTxXDTht

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) November 13, 2016

Overall it was a terrible game for the Packers. They had a ton of penalties (12 for 107 yards) and lost two offensive lineman to injuries during it (Lang and Bakhtiari) which contributed to 5 sacks. On defense, they had no pass rush and their pass coverage was a mess. And for the second consecutive week, their special teams failed with a fumbled punt return and a missed extra point. The offense spent the first couple possessions trying to run the ball while Rodgers was out of sync with his receivers and were down 21-0 by the end of the 1st half.

There's plenty of blame to go around, but the pass coverage was the worst of it. They have to blitz to get a pass rush (where have you gone Nick Perry?) but both CB Demetri Goodson and Quinten Rollins have been a bust as the starter opposite CB Ladarius Gunter. While Gunter is getting better, (he's still had the occasional bad game) Goodson and Rollins are getting worse. The defense is playing some zone coverage to try and help, but that doesn't work when the quarterback has time to throw. There is the hope that the defense could turn it around quickly if both LB Clay Matthews and CB Damarious Randall could return next week.

As bad as they played in this game, they almost got back into it. During the 4th quarter, they were losing by 16 points but driving at the Titans' 41 yard line with 12 minutes to go. On 4th down, TE Richard Rodgers dropped a pass he should have caught for a 1st down. If they could have kept it going and scored a touchdown, they could have cut the lead to one possession with plenty of time remaining.

With an 8-8 finish the most likely scenario for the 2016 Packers, I'd normally consider this a lost season and they should start working in earnest on their college draft scouting. But the Vikings keep losing (4 in a row) and now the Lions are in 1st place in the NFC North with a one game lead over the Packers and a tie-breaker advantage over the Vikings. All three teams are majorly messed up in a one way or another. The Packers haven't been encouraging to watch over the past few weeks but if they can turn it around at any point over the next couple weeks, they should still have a shot at making the playoffs.

Packers (4-4) Lose At Home to the Struggling Colts, 31-26

The Green Bay Packers did feel like they played the first three quarters with low energy. The offense was moving well at times during the first half, but they kept leaving points on the field as six of their first nine offensive possession finished in Indianapolis territory with only had 13 points to show for it. The defense was playing great (at times) and forced the Colts into three-and-out on three of their eleven possessions, but they also allowed three long touchdown drives plus a long drive at the end of the game to run out the clock. And the special teams were a complete disaster. They came out with low energy on the opening kickoff and spent the next three quarters digging the hole deeper.

Aaron Rodgers calls out Packers 'unacceptable' low energy https://t.co/VWl8deH3tJ

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) November 7, 2016

The Packers' special teams unit had been OK entering this game (it was ranked No. 17 overall) but then allowed two long kickoff returns (one for a touchdown, the other set up a field goal) and K Mason Crosby missed a 48 yard field goal. That's a big deficit to overcome from special teams alone, considering how the offense and defense were playing.

Over the past three games, it seems like the offense now knows how to use it's personnel. They'll go deep with WR Jordy Nelson or WR Jeff Janis (you can't drop that one Jeff!) while the rest of their receivers are better used on short passes or passes out of the backfield to Montgomery or Cobb. What's holding back the offense is the absence of a quality running back and I'm not pinning my hopes on RB James Starks. It is amazing how they can manage 116 yards rushing on 19 carries with scrambles by QB Aaron Rodgers and hand offs to Montgomery.

The defense seemed out-schemed in this game. The Packers played more zone than usual and it worked at times (2 early INTs) but then it gave up chunks of yards on all of the Colts's long touchdown drives. The front four wasn't generating enough pressure against a make-shirt Colts' offensive line which forced the Packers to blitz more with their DBs. That led to some big completions when the blitz didn't get there in time (or when FS Ha Ha Clinton Dix missed a huge sack opportunity on the Colts' last possession).

The only silver lining is that it seems to be a race to the bottom in the NFC North. The Vikings are in free fall, currently on a three game losing streak, and the Lions have moved ahead of the Packers with 5 wins. If the Packers win the rest of their NFC North head-to-head games, then they'll probably win the NFC North. The division winner might finish with only 9 or 10 wins. That's not pretty, but they just need to find any way into the playoffs and hope the team clicks at the right time.

The Packers and Vikings Just Keep Losing

The Green Bay Packers made some transaction noise on Monday when they released RB Knile Davis. But that wasn't a big surprise. Over the past three seasons, Davis hadn't been able to get onto the field in Kansas City and the Packers saw more good from rookie RB Don Jackson, though neither player has done much over the past two games.

But the big news on Monday was that the Vikings lost, ugly, for the second week in a row. The Packers have lost two of their last three games and I thought they were giving up too much ground on the Vikings to overtake them in the NFC North. Instead, the wheels are coming off for the Vikings.

'We're just not us right now.' #Vikings offensive line pushed around by Bears, Bradford sacked five times. https://t.co/7BBULMcOSd #NFL pic.twitter.com/Xm2cmKVguU

— Star Tribune Sports (@StribSports) November 1, 2016

The Vikings have some problems on defense. They had trouble pressuring QB Jay Cutler on Monday night and rookie SS Jayron Kearse struggled in his first NFL start (replacing injured SS Andrew Sendejo). But overall these are minor complaints and as many as five of their defensive starters might be traveling to the Pro Bowl at the end of the season. Their big problem is the offensive line.

The Bears were all over QB Sam Bradford while only rushing four players, allowing their inside linebackers to drop back in coverage and smother all the short passes he threw to his running backs and tight ends, while giving him no time to look down field for his wide receivers. They were a disaster on running plays too, failing to get any push or create any cut-back lanes. The Vikings have now scored only 10 points in each of their last two games, and both of their touchdowns were late points in garbage time when the game was out of reach.

They'll get a breather next week when they host the Lions, and go up against the worst defense in the NFL. But then they travel to D.C. to play the Redskins and return home to host the Cardinals. Then they play on a short week and travel to Detroit, before they host the Cowboys on December 1st. While they'll beat the Lions next week, those next four games are all challenging for different reasons. If they don't solve their offensive line problems, what looked like a 13-3 team a couple weeks ago is starting to look 10-6 (or worse).

If the Vikings could run the ball and had a mobile quarterback, they could adjust to having the worst tandem of tackles in the NFL (LT Jake Long and RT T.J. Clemmings). But they only moved the ball well against the Bears when they got their wide receivers involved (Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen) and Bradford needs time to throw to be able to get them the ball.

Although the Packers have lost two of their last three games, and are looking ahead to a three game stretch on the road after they host the Colts next week, the Vikings are unraveling at the right time to give the Packers a chance to regain their footing (and health in the secondary) to overtake them in the NFC North race.

Packers (4-3) Stumble on the Road, Lose in Atlanta, 32-33

This was about as even a game as I've seen in recent years from the Green Bay Packers. Neither team's defense could do much to stop the other team's offense. The score was obviously close, a one point margin, but nearly everything was close during this game. Yardage, time of possession, neither team had a turnover (WR Davante Adams fumbled but it went out of bounds), neither team bothered much with their running games, etc.

Final statistics from #GBvsATL.

More: https://t.co/BRTIRefCwO pic.twitter.com/G4UVuT1lRG

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 30, 2016

The Packers's offense is going to be limited for the rest of the season by their inability to run the ball but it's getting better in some ways. WR Jordy Nelson had one of his best games and forced the Falcons to commit more defenders in coverage to stop him. The absence of WR Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery hurt, but they've found the best role for Adams (short routes instead of mid-range to deep sideline routes) and they used Nelson, WR Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis and even Geronimo Allison (his first game off the practice squad) to work downfield. With all those receivers running deeper routes, it opened up a lot of short routes for Adams (who could make one defender miss and pick up several more yards) and huge running lanes for QB Aaron Rodgers, who ran for a career high 60 yards and multiple first downs.

Agree that moral victories don't count. But c'mon. No Matthews, Shields, Randall, Rollins on defense -- then lost Gunter at the end! https://t.co/A40Mpsiitq

— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) October 30, 2016

CB LaDarius Gunter has had an up-and-down season, but this was one of his up-games. He drew WR Julio Jones in coverage and Jones was a non-factor for most of the game, especially after he sprained his ankle in the first half. But the rest of the coverage was poor. The other starting CB (Demetri Goodson) allowed a long TD pass, and they would have had a better match-up against No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu, who led the Falcons in receptions and receiving yards, if the Packers had their top 3 CBs available.

The late game loss of Gunter was significant too. On the game winning TD pass, the Packers had ILB Jake Ryan lined up in single coverage against Sanu, and being down to two healthy CBs (plus utility DB Micah Hyde) might have been part of the reason they found themselves in such a bad match-up on the decisive play of the game. Shields's long-term health is a concern but the other three players should return and make the defense much better.

This loss hurts. They led for much of the game and the defense couldn't make the late lead hold up. The next two games are more manageable, against the Colts and Titans, before two tough prime time road games at Washington and Philadelphia. The two NFC East games are looming large because they might be the key to a Wild Card spot at the end of the season. They just got to keep focused on winning each game, and getting their missing players back healthy.