Monday, September 14, 2020

Week 1 2020 - Packers defeat Vikings 43-34

I wasn't expecting great things from the Green Bay Packers in 2020. Last season they had a trip to the NFC championship game but they got crushed by the 49ers. Also their 13-3 record last season was a bit of mirage. They needed to have a strong offseason to boost a team that can contend for a championship. Instead they used their 1st round pick on third-string QB, their 2nd round pick on a third-string RB, and their two big free agent signings were an inside linebacker and a third-string offensive tackle. In Week 1, ILB Christian Kirksey did lead the defense in tackles, and RT Rick Wagner played well in the second half (after both starting guards Lane Taylor and Lucas Patrick were hurt) but replacing one free-agent starting inside linebacker with another isn't a big change.

But after watching the rest of the NFC North in Week 1 it doesn't look like the other teams have done enough to catch up. While the Packers don't have any glaring positional issues each of the other NFC North teams have things to work out.

Vikings. Their revamped defense surrender 43 points. However they were without their top two pass rushers (Danielle Hunter was hurt and Yannick Ngakoue didn't play much in the 2nd half). Also their re-vamped secondary (which was terrible in 2019) isn't ready for prime time as CBs Holton Hill and Mike Hughes were constantly getting beat in coverage. Hill's probably not a long-term starter (I'm sure they're hoping rookie 1st round pick CB Jeff Gladney moves ahead of him soon). The Vikings need to sort out their defense but they could be better by season-end.

Lions. Their late game collapse against the Bears was one for the ages. With 18 minutes left in the game they were leading 23-6 but then they allowed three unanswered touchdown to lose 27-23. Their defense deserves most of that blame but QB Matthew Stafford had a brutal INT that led to a touchdown on a short field, and rookie RB D'Andre Swift dropped a game-winning touchdown pass with a few seconds left in the game. WR Kenny Golladay will return eventually (but those hamstring injuries can linger) and he'll provide a play maker that their offense desperately needs. This is Year 3 of Matt Patricia's re-build of the Lions' defense but it's surrendering three 4th quarter touchdown drives and he's pointing fingers at others for the collapse. The Lions still have everything to sort out.

Bears. They still have a Mitchell Trubisky problem. He did throw three TD passes in the 4th quarter against a struggling Lions' defense but he couldn't lead the Bears' offense anywhere for three quarters. He also had a 28 yard fumble-sack in the third quarter that deserved the yakety sax treatment. The Bears aren't going anywhere until they find a good QB.

Packers. What do they have to sort out? Nothing. I thought they might become a run heavy team but they threw the ball 44 times and rushed only 32 times. Aaron Rodgers again made some incredible passes and he's still the best QB in the NFC North. The defense is average at best and Mike Pettine doesn't appear to be the DC needed to turn them into a Top 10 unit, but this is what they are. They don't have any positional battles to sort out. It doesn't look like anyone is going to emerge either. For all the talk about how awesome Rashan Gary was in camp the last couple months (and he did end up with 2 QB hits) the Vikings' backup RT didn't have too much trouble with him and he looked like a liability holding the edge on run defense. This isn't an awesome world beating team but it's better than anything the NFC North has to offer.

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Wednesday, April 29, 2020

I've given up on waiting for the Packers to draft Aaron Rodgers a receiver

ESPN had an interesting stat that doesn't mean anything:
Except it does show how different teams approach roster construction. The Colts selected Marvin Harrison in the first round before they had Peyton Manning and then added Reggie Wayne with a 1st round pick during Manning's career. The Packers never use a 1st round pick on a wide receiver. Both approaches work.

But the ESPN's stat did remind me how the Packers have avoided the wide receiver position over the past five drafts. Here's a list of players who have caught more than 10 TD passes from Rodgers:

Nelson 65, Jones 41, Cobb 39, Adams 39, Jennings 38, Driver 22, Finley 19, Other Rodgers 13.

The top five are wide receivers drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. The last time that happened the Packers drafted "wide receiver" Ty Montgomery in the 3rd round in 2015. Adams was a 2nd round pick in 2014.

There are also two tight ends, but they are always secondary for Rodgers. His favorite targets have always been his wide receivers. Those are the quality players he needs to succeed and the Packers have failed him over the past few years in that regard.

Instead the Packers have drafted a quantity of wide receivers in recent years and none higher than the immortal J'Mon Moore in the 4th round in 2018. I'll skip the 2020 draft class because we don't know how good they are yet. Looking back in the 2nd and 3rd rounds from 2016 through 2019 there have been 35 wide receivers drafted. I'm cherry picking but here are the big names and imagine them filling out a fantasy team roster:

Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin.

That's 14 out of 35 players who would be the clear No. 2 next to Adams. Not great odds but if they had drafted one per year they would have had at least one of them. And it's also a high ceiling with a list that includes some of the best receivers in the NFL and some who are better than Adams. And the Packers are historically really good at finding 2nd round receivers.

Instead of looking back and seeing that Rodgers needs quality receivers they've decided that they need to draft a power running back and three offensive lineman. The organization has gotten it wrong.
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Saturday, April 25, 2020

What The Packers Will Look Like Over The Next Few Years

The NFL is a copycat league and it looks like the Packers are copying the Tennessee Titans and the San Francisco 49ers.

The Titans connection is even stronger with the HC Matt Lafleur. Ben Fennell comped RB AJ Dillon to former Falcons RB TJ Duckett. On ESPN someone commented that Dillon was one of those big backs you used to see teams draft in the 1st round. Used to. Instead it looks like the Packers view Dillon as their Derrick Henry.

Since DC Mike Pettine can't scheme up a run defense I'm sure the Packers were very impressed with what they saw from the 49ers in their two match-ups last season. A run first team with a strong defense who asks their QB to do just enough got to the Super Bowl. Of course the Packers haven't done much to make their strong defense a reality by bringing back Pettine who I expect will do more of the same next year. Also the 49ers loaded up their defense before last season with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford while the Packers have only added ILB Christian Kirksey (if healthy) to take over for Blake Martinez.

It's interesting to watch the Denver Broncos copy a different team. I only watched one entire Broncos game last season and it was their game against the Packers. The Broncos offense was plain vanilla. Run the ball, don't ask too much from Joe Flacco, and slowly move down the field.

Instead of doing more of the same next season it looks like the Broncos took that Chiefs game film to heart. The 49ers's scheme worked in the Super Bowl until it didn't and Jimmy G had to do something. And he couldn't against a mediocre Chiefs defense. Instead MVP QB Patrick Mahomes led the comeback against the 49ers's great defense.

This offseason the Broncos hired OC Pat Shurmur. He's a boring retread but he's also spent a lot of time with Chiefs HC Andy Reid. He knows better than probably anyone what the Chiefs want to do on offense. Drew Lock and his cannon arm take over at QB. Their 1st round pick is the best WR available (caution-might have bad knees) Jerry Jeudy. Penn State WR KJ Hamler in the 2nd round, he might have to be schemed open but he's a big play waiting to happen when he does get the ball. They did sign RB Melvin Gordon to big money for some reason but he won't hurt them unless he keeps RB Phillip Lindsay off the field. There are some big question marks here; is Lock really the guy, are Jeudy's knees really a concern, is Hamler undersized. But I love what they're doing. And the Broncos already have one of the best WRs in the NFL in Courtland Sutton.

The Broncos just raised the ceiling on their big play passing offense while the Packers just brought their's down with a new run focused offense. The Broncos might be going toe-to-toe with Mahomes and the Chiefs for the next few years. The Packers will be led by franchise RB AJ Dillon and game manager QB Jordan Love, battling for that last playoff spot and a first round exit.
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In The Third Round The Packers Select TE Josiah Deguara

By itself selecting TE Josiah Deguara is a good move for the Packers.
They released TE Jimmy Graham and they hadn't added anyone to replace him. I'd rather have a TE who's a receiving threat than a blocker. The stat above shows that Deguara is also a nice deep threat too.

The only times that Graham succeeded last season were on the one or two plays per game when the defense would completely forget about him and he'd find himself wide open for a big gain. Next season when Deguara gets onto the field, I expect defenses will ignore the rookie 3rd string TE and that might work out well for a few big plays next season.
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Friday, April 24, 2020

Top Thing I Hate Today: Packers Draft Jordan Love

I've been having a really tough time with life. 2019 was an exhausting year and I gave up on my career of the last 15 years. 2020 has been a tough professional transition from one of hope into one of daily disappointment. As I struggle with the parts of my life that I can control, I really didn't need the Green Bay Packers to use a 1st round pick (AND trade up in the 1st round!) for Jordan Forking Love.
The rule is that college QBs who throw a lot of INTs are not good NFL prospects, and that Dan Marino is the exception who proves the rule.

But I'm going to start out by defending the selection because after Love it looks like there was no other player left with a first round grade on the Packers' draft board. Here are the players selected in the first round after him:

  • ILB Jordan Brooks, Texas Tech, a one-dimensional run stopping linebacker with limited coverage skills. 
  • ILB Patrick Queen. LSU, a one-year starter in college.
  • OT Isaiah Wilson, Georgia, a slow giant who might be a turnstile in pass protection.
  • CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn, a future slot corner with no ball skills.
  • CB Jeff Gladney, TCU, an undersized corner who might not have the physical skills to overcome being too short.
  • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU, running backs are not valuable enough to use a first round pick on them in the modern NFL.
The highest pick to be traded on draft day was No. 13, and even then the 49ers only moved down one spot. Only one team (New England, of course) managed to trade out of the first round on draft day. Teams did not want any part of this year's first round.

There was talk before the draft that the Packers were talking about trading up but it probably wasn't worth the cost in a weak first round. They probably couldn't have traded out of the first round either because no other non-New England team did it. I hate trading up but the cost was only a late 4th round pick and I don't mind them trading away any pick after the third round.

But the Packers have to be better evaluators of talent then almost everyone else for this to succeed. If they didn't really believe in Love either and took him because he was the only high-risk player remaining on their draft board with a first round grade then they couldn't see the forest for the trees.

To excuse this selection there are going to be a lot of comparisons to back when Ted Thompson surprised everyone by selecting Aaron Rodgers in the first round. Rodgers was a great prospect, not perfect so I understand some of the reasons why he slipped, but he got better each year and only threw 13 INTs total in two years at Cal. Love threw 17 INTs last season. I'm a big believer in college INTs as an indicator of future NFL accuracy and the ESPN stats above back me up. 

Rodgers falling in the 2005 draft was as if Tua had fell to the Packers. I'd be writing about how Tua was way too good to pass on despite his injury history and I would have applauded them. Love is no Tua.

What should the Packers have done instead?

The Packers need to improve on or replace Kevin King at CB, Billy Turner at RG, Bryan Bulaga at RT and everyone not named Davante Adams at WR. They've needed a dynamic inside LB for so many years that I've given up on it ever happening. But it was very unlikely that anyone drafted at the end of the first round would actually have started in Week 1 at any position. 

However I expect that they are still going to draft some other players over the next couple days. I assume that there are still many players available who have a second round grade on their draft board. They should have treated their first round pick like an expensive second round pick. There would have certainly been a WR available.

Coming off an NFC Championship appearance they should have risked some of their future to win now while the window is still open. But maybe the moves weren't available if it turns out to be a weak draft class and they couldn't attract the players they needed in free agency because of the situation and the salary cap. Free agents know it's cold in Green Bay. Maybe all they could have done is added some depth in the draft. Or maybe I'm wrong and Jordan Love is going to be a great pro QB in a couple years. 

But today this doesn't feel right.
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Friday, August 09, 2019

Packers Preseason Week 1: Packers defeat Texans 28-26 at Lambeau

Both the Packers and Texans rested nearly all of their starters in their preseason opener so there wasn't a lot of good football to watch. Almost everyone on the field is inexperienced and fighting for their NFL careers. Also, a starting QB match-up between Joe Webb (it's amazing he's still being given chances at NFL QB) and DeShone Kizer isn't must-see TV. If you're wondering how the Kizer Project is going, Tim Boyle still looks clearly better than him.

But almost all of their top 2019 draft choices played so it was a good opportunity to get a first look at them.
1st round: LB Rashan Gary. He looked fine, but when Reggie Gilbert came in to sub for him, the two were almost indistinguishable. I like Gilbert, but he didn't show much last regular season when given an expanded role and I was expecting a lot more from a high first round pick (Gary) than a former undrafted free agent (Gilbert). Late in the game, undrafted rookie free agent Randy Ramsey got a huge sack from Gary's position over the right tackle, however, the Texans also left Ramsey completely unblocked.

1st round: S Darnell Savage. He played deep safety alongside Raven Greene (who's become a favorite bench player) during the 1st quarter so he was off the screen for most of his time on the field. Greene had a bigger impact because the Texans were throwing more to his side and he also forced a fumble on running back Taiwan Jones.  Nothing much to report, I hope the coaches liked the little they saw from him.

2nd round: OL Elgton Jenkins. I still don't believe in free agent OG Billy Turner (who didn't play along with most of the other veterans) and hope Jenkins wins the job at right guard. Instead he might win OG Lane Taylor's job at left guard, Taylor was one of the few veterans who did play against the Texans so his job might be in danger. On a side note, I thought Taylor was so bad during the 2016 preseason that he was going to be released then, instead they released Josh Sitton and gave Taylor the starting job, so I haven't been a Taylor fan for a while. Jenkins looked pretty good at getting a push on running plays and holding his ground in pass protection while playing at both center and guard. However, since Jenkins played into the 3rd quarter, and played at two positions, it looks like he's being groomed as the #1 backup interior lineman instead of as a starter.

3rd round: TE Jace Sternberger. He didn't play after taking a big hit during the a joint practice with the Texans earlier this week. In a bit of karma, during the preseason game, Tim Boyle threw a touchdown pass to WR Allen Lazard while Texans CB Lonnie Johnson (who hit Sternberger and then flexed over him) was in coverage on him.

I won't go into detail with the rest of the undrafted rookies and remaining 2019 draft choices. DT Kingsley Keke had a nice game, he showed he can be a rotational guy who can provide an inside rush against less offensive lineman (it's hard to judge him since the Texans' OL is so bad). Preseason results aren't a measure of whether a player will make the team. Though preseason dropped passes (WR J'Mon Moore) or fumbles (RB Darrin Hall) make it clear why someone was released.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Packers Sign FOUR free agents: Smith and Smith, Amos and Billy Turner

The first couple days of NFL free agency is for suckers. Most of the teams that spend big early come away disappointed. You know, like how that TE Jimmy Graham signing didn't go well last year. So it's making me very nervous to see big spending from the Green Bay Packers at the start of free agency.

At least the players they did sign fit what I would ideally hope for in a free agent. They're all in their 20s, all signing their first deal after their rookie contract expired (except Turner), and they've all missed few games to injury. As a bonus, Amos's signing weakens a division rival.
They badly needed young, productive edge rushers, and here's their first one. He's typically been a part-time player for the Ravens so he shouldn't stop the Packers from using a high draft pick on another edge rusher. The money is huge but that's what edge rusher cost in free agency.
The other Mr. Smith seems like who the Packers hoped they would get when they re-signed Nick Perry a couple years ago. He looks good against the run too, which is something Packer edge defenders struggled with last year, but he's getting paid because they'll need him to rush the quarterback.

As an added bonus, neither one of the Smiths cost a 2nd round pick (like the 49ers are trading to the Chiefs just for the right to sign Dee Ford to a big contract). I'd rather have had Trey Flowers at his price than either of the Smiths at their price, but Flowers probably wasn't an option once his old Patriot friends in Detroit came calling.
A year ago I was coming to terms that the Packers were going to overpay Ha Ha Clinton-Dix for his mediocre play because they had no one anywhere near as good as him at safety. A year later, the Packers have Amos and an extra 3rd round pick from the Redskins. Amos is expensive but his cost wasn't at the top of the safety market, he's really solid, and he weakens a division rival as a bonus.

And finally, what the hell?
Ben Fennell's work is exceptional and the best he can say about Billy Turner is that "he'll join the mix." He might beat out McCray, who was terrible last season and I don't want to see back in 2019. Would any Packer fan want to pay McCray $16 million over the next two years? The best I can say about Turner is that he's really big and he looks very strong.

I went back and watched the first half of Week 17 of the Broncos game against the Chargers. Turner was terrible. I know, it's a small sample size, but that first half confirmed everything I read about him. In that game he committed at least one holding penalty and he lost his balance too easily in pass protection. On a couple occasions he let a Charger interior rusher run right at Case Keenum after a strong push made Turner lean back on his heals and open up a lane to the QB for the defender. He looks really stiff. Byron Bell was awful last season and Turner looked confused in space like Bell did many times last season. Forget what I said earlier about paying McCray $16 million over 2 years, how about paying Bell $16 million over 2 years?

I can see how Turner could "play" tackle too (probably as well as Bell). The Packers really need a backup tackle for the inevitable Bryan Bulaga injury but in no way is that backup Turner. I hope they use all their mid-round draft picks on offensive lineman, one of them has to be better than Turner.

The Turner signing might be the low point in Packer free agent history but the other free agents should work out. While Nick Perry was basically signed at the same point in his career as the Smiths, neither of the Smiths are as injury prone as Perry. Both of them, along with Amos, fill major needs. There could be buyer's remorse with any or all of these three in a couple years but right now they look solid. And hopefully Turner's contract is off the books by 2021.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019

The Packers Will Hire Matt LaFleur as Their Next Head Coach

It looks like the entire goal of the hiring process for the Green Bay Packers was to find a young offensive genius to be their next head coach:
Oh and to make sure Ron Zook still has a job...
Only Pettine is mentioned and not all the coaches don't need to be retained. I have no problem with keeping Pettine, the defense showed some early to mid-season promise. They fell off a cliff at the end of the year but they also lost their defensive MVP Kenny Clark for those last 3 games. It's not unheard of to keep the defensive coaches intact when a new offensive minded head coach is hired. But I can't believe he'll keep all the offensive coaches and different running game/passing game coordinators they had last season. Isn't Murphy expecting LaFleur to bring his own style of offense to Green Bay?

After I heard the announcement, I went and watched a bunch of Titans games (with Mariota at QB, nothing with Gabbert). Including some of their bad ones against great defensive teams (Bills and Ravens). I criticized McCarthy for not running the ball enough but this is a bit ridiculous.
That 48.4% also included a few designed runs by Mariota which maybe was the reason he didn't make it through the year and the Titans had to start Gabbert for their must win Week 17 game (they lost). It might have also been due in part to carryover a mostly run heavy offensive roster from the previous coaching regime. But the Titans weren't run heavy in every game so I'm not expecting LaFleur's bringing his 48.4% run percentage to Green Bay.

That comment above about Aaron Jones is true, the Titans loved getting touches to Dion Lewis, who's role in Green Bay would be played by Jones. McCarthy's complete avoidance of using his backs as threats in the passing game was frustrating so LaFleur should be a welcome change.

Overall it was pretty depressing to watch the 2018 Titans offense. Maybe Mariota just doesn't get it, he doesn't have a feel for what the defense is doing or where his receivers are going. And he doesn't do well with pressure. The Titans didn't have any receiving threat as dangerous as Davante Adams either. Maybe LaFleur's hands were tied.

In a lot of ways, LaFleur's offense looked like every other offense in the NFL (it's a copy cat league after all). He'd try some different motions one way to misdirect on a play going the other way, but usually early in the game and those types of plays would be rare later. Mariota threw a lot to the middle of the field, something Rodgers doesn't do much. The Titans also played a lot in a bunch formation, I guess that helps LaFleur's QBs read the coverage better or disguise the route trees from the receivers, but it didn't seem to help the Titans that much.

Maybe the most important thing is to get a young energetic coach who will probably work himself to death and hopefully earn Aaron Rodgers's respect. While Rodgers still had a statistically strong 2018 season in some ways (an amazing TD to INT ratio as an example) the offense just looked confused too often. Relying heavily on two rookie WRs was part of the problem, the early season loss of Geronimo Allison was another problem I didn't write enough about last year. And, of course, the relationship breakdown between Rodgers and McCarthy. Hopefully the plan LaFleur sold to Murphy was a good one, and he can realize it with a better QB.
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