Showing posts with label Aaron Rodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Rodgers. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

I've given up on waiting for the Packers to draft Aaron Rodgers a receiver

ESPN had an interesting stat that doesn't mean anything:
Except it does show how different teams approach roster construction. The Colts selected Marvin Harrison in the first round before they had Peyton Manning and then added Reggie Wayne with a 1st round pick during Manning's career. The Packers never use a 1st round pick on a wide receiver. Both approaches work.

But the ESPN's stat did remind me how the Packers have avoided the wide receiver position over the past five drafts. Here's a list of players who have caught more than 10 TD passes from Rodgers:

Nelson 65, Jones 41, Cobb 39, Adams 39, Jennings 38, Driver 22, Finley 19, Other Rodgers 13.

The top five are wide receivers drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. The last time that happened the Packers drafted "wide receiver" Ty Montgomery in the 3rd round in 2015. Adams was a 2nd round pick in 2014.

There are also two tight ends, but they are always secondary for Rodgers. His favorite targets have always been his wide receivers. Those are the quality players he needs to succeed and the Packers have failed him over the past few years in that regard.

Instead the Packers have drafted a quantity of wide receivers in recent years and none higher than the immortal J'Mon Moore in the 4th round in 2018. I'll skip the 2020 draft class because we don't know how good they are yet. Looking back in the 2nd and 3rd rounds from 2016 through 2019 there have been 35 wide receivers drafted. I'm cherry picking but here are the big names and imagine them filling out a fantasy team roster:

Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin.

That's 14 out of 35 players who would be the clear No. 2 next to Adams. Not great odds but if they had drafted one per year they would have had at least one of them. And it's also a high ceiling with a list that includes some of the best receivers in the NFL and some who are better than Adams. And the Packers are historically really good at finding 2nd round receivers.

Instead of looking back and seeing that Rodgers needs quality receivers they've decided that they need to draft a power running back and three offensive lineman. The organization has gotten it wrong.
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Monday, September 10, 2018

2018 Week 1: Rodgers Rallies The Packers to 24-23 Victory Over The Bears

I gave up on this game. After Aaron Rodgers's left knee was rolled to it's side on a sack (knees are not supposed to bend that way!) he couldn't walk off the field under his own power which led to this:
That's it for the 2018 season. They'd manage a few wins (DeShone Kizer couldn't go winless for another entire season, could he?) but they're not going anywhere with an improving but still mediocre defense and old school play calling from Mike McCarthy. Kizer did give me a little hope that he wasn't going to be a repeat of Brett Hundley with a drive into the red zone but on the drive's final play he ran right into LB Khalil Mack's arms for a fumble. On the next drive, an ill-advised screen pass was called and Kizer threw a pick-six right to Mack (they must be good buddies by this point) for a 17-0 halftime deficit. Kizer was a different type of awful than Hundley, not as ineffective but more turnover prone. Wake me up in September 2019.

But then...
and then...
then another touchdown pass to Davante Adams, and then the dagger!!!
This is old school, but it reminded me of a 1989 game against the Saints (without the QB injury), when I completely gave up on a game though I shouldn't.

The rust in the first half (pre-knee injury) had vanished. The pass protection was great and Rodgers's passes were just beyond the defenders' fingers. Bears CB Kyle Fuller dropped a game ending INT but bad hands is why those guys were switched to DB in the first place.

There were still some zeroes in this game. Newly named starting RG Justin McCray was terrible in the first half (it looked like he missed the rushing DL on the stunt who went unblocked when Rodgers suffered his knee injury) and much better in the second. Clay Matthews is still useful but every few weeks he has one of these awful games, his only big play was a roughing the passer penalty on 4th down that gave the Bears another chance at the end of the game. Jamaal Williams seemed to have a knack for running into a pile instead of finding some daylight.

A knee injury for Rodgers is bad but it's much better than a lost season. Maybe it's an MCL sprain, which he obviously can play through but who knows when it would be healed. It's going to be a struggle to win the division or make the playoffs, so these divisional games are must-wins. Rodgers recovered in the second half to pull their season back from the brink, but that's still a dangerous place to find themselves after one game. Whew!
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Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Aaron Rodgers Will Have Surgery, Packers Sign Jerod Evans (of course)

The combination of having a broken collarbone on his throwing shoulder and the need to have surgery is probably the worst news for QB Aaron Rodgers that the Green Bay Packers could have heard. This isn't going to be like 2013 when he came back from a broken collarbone after having missed several weeks. Even then, when he did come back for the final two games of the season, he wasn't as good as usual because he'd been standing on the sidelines and not practicing for a while. Given usual cautiousness of Packers' training staff, I'm expecting his 2017 season is over.

So it was obvious that the Packers would sign QB Jerod Evans to replace him. Who's Jerod Evans?
I know there's a petition for them to sign QB Colin Kaepernick instead and it really is historically ridiculous that he isn't on an NFL roster. Rodgers himself thinks Kaep should be on somebody's roster, and I agree with him. But GM Ted Thompson, with only a couple exceptions, avoids signing veterans and looks for the youngster with upside. Signing Kaepernick would have not been a typical move for the Packers and signing Evans is.

It shouldn't be lost in this that there's a lot to like about Evans. He's big, fast, and he's got a strong arm. He was great for Virginia Tech last season and on the scout team he'll probably be good at pretending the opponent's QB, whether that QB is a traditional pocket passer or more mobile. And they wanted to promote QB Joe Callahan to the active roster now as the backup (no veteran was going to pick up the playbook in a couple days, it has to be Callahan this week) so it made sense that the new No. 3 QB should be eligible for the practice squad.

Speaking of things lost in this, to open a spot for Callahan they placed CB Quinten Rollins on injured reserve. I'm not a fan of Rollins, but I'd really like to see CB Josh Hawkins spend more time on the bench and losing Rollins doesn't help make that possible.

The big problem with Evans is that he's only played one season of FBS (he was previously at community college). Who advised him to leave for the NFL after only one year of college? After being signed as an undrafted free agent, he didn't even make it into training camp with the Eagles before being released in late May. The Packers have found arguably the least experienced QB possible.

Back in 2013, the Packers rotated Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn into the starting lineup to replace Rodgers. The situation is different this time, Hundley is established as the obvious replacement. But the offensive line is a wreck at the moment and it's possible that Hundley could wind up injured too. Then it's down to Callahan and The Least Experience Player in the NFL. There's no way they could be competitive in a game over the next couple weeks if the worst case scenario occurred and they had to turn to Evans, who's coming off an injury from last May. I expect they feel that the new No. 3 isn't someone they'll actually have to turn to, but that decision seems risky at the moment.
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Monday, October 16, 2017

Packers Lose To The Vikings, Lose Aaron Rodgers

My first thought is that losing QB Aaron Rodgers for most of the season or the entire season is all that really needs to be said about the Green Bay Packers's loss to the Vikings in Minneapolis.
My second thought is that I'm a huge Packers fan, and I'll keep watching and rooting for them. Hopefully Bakhtiari and Bulaga can come back soon. Otherwise they'll be stuck with their 5th string LT and the dude they signed off the Cardinals practice squad at RT. And hopefully LG Lane Taylor can come back soon, otherwise QB Brett Hundley isn't going to have much of a chance (see the beating he took from the Vikings on Sunday) and they won't be able to run the ball much. It was like watching the preseason offensive unit all over again (except with the starting wide receivers) as the game wound down.

The defense held up surprisingly well after they were forced to give Lenzy Pipkins and Josh Hawkins substantial playing time at cornerback. They forced two turnovers that made the score a lot closer than the game on the field actually was. However it came against a non-juggernaut Vikings offense that was already without arguably their best three starters (Bradford, Cook, Diggs).

But at this point all the long-term hopes for this season can be put away. It's time to get as many guys healthy again as possible and fight like an underdog for each win.
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Monday, September 12, 2016

Packers (1-0) Beat The Jaguars in Jacksonville, 27-23

It wasn't the easiest win, as the Green Bay Packers fell behind in the first half, re-took the lead before halftime, and were able to match field goals with the Jaguars in the second half to hold onto the win. As I was watching it, I was thinking about how it would have been a huge let down to lose to an 11 loss team in what might be their easiest road game of 2016. But the Jaguars are better now and one game isn't going to make or break their season.

An early INT by Blake Bortles turned out to be his only turnover of the game, and some big pass plays to Allen Hurns, Marcedes Lewis, and Julius Thomas led their offense. Anyone who plays fantasy football knows the Jaguars have some legitimate offensive weapons. Also the Jaguars have spent a lot of money on their defense in free agency (mostly to Malik Jackson) and used a Top 5 draft pick on Jalen Ramsey (who's feeling a bit cocky at the moment). If they had put more pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers (zero sacks) then they might have had a shot at shutting down the Packers' offense. But they couldn't stop Eddie Lacy (4.4 ypc) and Rodgers finished with the 4th highest QBR in Week 1 (so far).
Packers offense: So above is one of the plays that'll be on the short list for plays of 2016. His offensive line played great, though they would have been even better with former LG Josh Sitton. Bob McGinn had a great article about how the front office blew it with Sitton, though his loss is still not going to be a season changing mistake. His replacement, LG Lane Taylor, probably had the lowest grade of their five lineman according to PFF by surrendering three QB hurries (I recall one play when ILB Paul Posluszny ran right past Taylor) but his run blocking appeared strong and he didn't allow a sack.

WR Jordy Nelson was back, and Rodgers again focused in on his top three receivers. This time it was Davante Adams joining Nelson and Cobb, and those three were targeted on 24 of his 33 attempts (73%). It was a big surprise that TE Jared Cook was only targeted twice, and he might have been a help early in the game when Rodgers struggled to get the ball to Nelson and Adams (3 straight punts in the first half). Rodgers barely played this preseason, Nelson didn't play at all, and everyone's timing looked bad as they shook off the rust in the first half. I was ready to give up on Adams after he missed two catchable passes on 3rd downs but he redeemed himself later.

Mike McCarthy started the game by calling a lot of running plays, but that faded as the game went on, and Lacy ended up with only 14 carries. I'd like to see a lot more from Lacy but he'll probably just remain a complementary weapon.

Packers defense: Speaking of players who barely played this preseason, the defense featured two of them, with only one of them being a success story in Week 1. The success was ILB Jake Ryan, who was held out for most of the preseason with a hamstring injury. Against Jacksonville, he was second on the team with 7 tackles and he was very active in the middle of the field, usually tackling T.J. Yeldon for a short gain. The entire defense did a great job against the run (Jags only had 1.8 ypc) and Ryan was a big part of it. The bad news was Morgan Burnett, who had an impressive stat line (9 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for a loss), but committed two penalties (both led to 1st downs) and he looked a step slow in coverage. While Ryan was able to play in their final preseason game, Burnett's back injury (which kept him out for most of the preseason) might still be bothering him.

The front seven did a great job against the Jaguars offensive line. Bortles did a good job of getting the ball out as quickly as he could before the pass rush came, but the Packers still had 3 sacks and shut down the Jaguars' running game. Nick Perry was great against the run and he spent a lot of time in the Jaguars' backfield (1 sack, 2 tackles for a loss) while Clay Matthews missed a couple tackles and Julius Peppers didn't record a single stat. Joe Thomas grabbed the lone INT and he was in on the final stop to end the game. It was a quiet game for Mike Daniels (hopefully it wasn't an SI cover jinx) but that was mostly because he faced a bunch of double-teams.

The secondary was a mixed bag. Burnett struggled and CB Quinten Rollins allowed a TD pass. On the other hand, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was great and Damarious Randall had the top defensive grade from PFF. I was worried about Randall after a bad playoff game and a poor preseason (in limited playing time) but he's bounced back.

Next up is a big game, Sunday Night Football to open the Vikings's new US Bank Stadium on September 18.
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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Vincent Verhei on The Packers and the 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac

Vincent Verhei (@FO_VVerhei) wrote the chapters on the NFC North for the always excellent 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac. The chapter on the Green Bay Packers focused on two interesting points. The Packer defense has been coordinated by Dom Capers since 2009 using a similar scheme and concepts in each of those years, but the Packers' defense has been widely variable in those years, from really good (2009, 2010) to really bad (2011, 2013) and places in between (2012, 2014-2015). Also, the wide receivers last season, as a group, for the Packers were really bad to mediocre without Jordy Nelson. I asked him a couple questions about how the Packers compare to the rest of the NFC North and whether there's any hope for Davante Adams.
"You wrote the chapters on all the NFC North teams so what would you say is the one advantage and one disadvantage the Packers have compared to the rest of the conference?"
Well, the first question is easy: the Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and for sure the best in the division. Chicago's Jay Cutler and Detroit's Matt Stafford are both pretty average starters, though Stafford has more upside considering he's still only 28. The consensus Football Outsiders opinion on Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater is that he has a very bright long-term future, but we're still skeptical about his targets in the passing game in 2015.

And the second question is just as easy: inside linebacker. While the Bears have added Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, Detroit is getting back a healthy DeAndre Levy, and Minnesota has
up-and-comer Eric Kendricks, the Packers are trying to keep their heads above water with a collection of low-round draft picks and undrafted players who nobody else wanted. I know the Packers are high on fourth-rounder Blake Martinez, but if he were likely to step in and make a big impact he wouldn't have lasted to the 131st pick.

"You wrote about the high year-to-year variance from Dom Capers's defenses and the pass defense was pretty good last season (-6.8%, ranked 6th best) so is there something (or some player) to watch for as a sign that they've regressed this season? Or am I being too pessimistic and should be looking for a player to emerge this season that could turn their defense into one of the best?"
I guess the single biggest concern going into 2016 would be the pass rush. Julius Peppers is 37 this year, while Clay Matthews is 31 and might wind up playing inside a lot again. Nobody else on the team had more than four sacks last year. Capers blitzes a lot, so they should be able to generate some pressure regardless, but without a dominant one-on-one edge rusher those blitzes will be much easier to pick up.

"Is there any hope for Davante Adams this season? The player analysis in the Wide Receivers section was absolutely brutal. And it was absolutely right; he was terrible and I've never seen a wide receiver play so badly with Aaron Rodgers, at least one with so many targets. Thinking historically, is there a wide receiver you could compare to him to that played as badly as Adams played last season who went on to have at least a good career?"
I checked our Similarity Scores for wide receivers who put up similar numbers to Adams in the first two years of their careers and found a surprising number of guys who turned out OK. Bobby Engram topped 900 yards in his third and fourth seasons, and finally went over 1,000 at age 34 in Seattle. Pittsburgh's Charles Johnson went over a thousand yards in his third year. Cincinnati's Carl Pickens topped a thousand yards four times in five seasons starting in Year 3.

Of course, all of those players started their careers in the 1990s, when numbers were very different. More recent wideouts similar to Adams include long list of first-round busts: Bryant Johnson, Josh Reed, Troy Williamson, Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Cordarrelle Patterson.

So two seasons in, the best-case scenario for Adams appears to be "productive complementary wideout," and the worst-case scenario is …well, more seasons like 2015.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Did The Packers Do Enough This Offseason: Pass Offense

For the past several seasons, when I'm reviewing the changes made by the Green Bay Packers during the offseason, I'm usually focused on what they're doing to improve the defense. But this offseason I'm starting with the pass offense, which was a huge disappointment in 2015, and received as much help help as any unit this offseason:
QB Aaron Rodgers. It all starts at the top with any NFL offense. If 2015 wasn't his worst NFL season, then it came really close, which is still a career year for some starting QBs. On one hand, it's not fair to put all the blame on him when his offensive line was a walking M.A.S.H. unit and he lost WR Jordy Nelson for the entire season, and those are good reasons to expect he'll be much in better 2016 season. On the other hand, his completion percentage in 2015 was his lowest as a NFL starter (60.7%) and its declined every season since 2011. His yards per attempt also hit rock bottom (6.68 per attempt) and placed him near the bottom among qualified players (just ahead of Colin Kaepernick). He should improve when he has more time to throw (healthy offensive line) and Nelson back, but those troublesome stats are something to keep an eye on next season.

WR Jordy Nelson. When Nelson got hurt last year, I thought the Packers were going to have to spread it out and get everyone involved in the passing game. That would have been a real shift in their mentality because Rodgers had come to rely so much on Nelson and Randall Cobb for a majority of his targets. Instead, the Packers continued to rely heavily on their top receivers which featured an ex-Packer off the waiver wire (James Jones) and a second year receiver who wasn't ready for a heavy work load (Devante Adams). Despite glimpses from Janis, Abbrederis and Montgomery, all they've shown so far are glimpses and they can't be counted on yet, if at all. Nelson's return remains the key, and it's still incredibly important that he returns to full strength, otherwise the offseason will have been a bust.

OL Jason Spriggs. Maybe he was selected in anticipation of 2017, when three offensive lineman are up for free agency, but adding quality depth at offensive tackle for 2016 was still an important move. His addition can only help next season.

RB James Starks. He was the 10th best receiving RB in the NFL last season according to Football Outsiders, and that alone might have been why they re-signed him to a two-year contract. Coming into the 2015 season, I had hoped Eddie Lacy would become a difference maker as a receiver but that never happened. Instead it was Starks, though he never became a major part of the passing game, did become very effective as receiver when asked. At 6-2, he doesn't look the part of a prototype 3rd down back, but that might be what he's become. Re-signing him this spring was a small move that might really help the pass offense next season.

TE Jared Cook. First the bad news; Cook was awful in 2015. Among TEs who were targeted more than 25 times last season, Cook was the absolute worst according to Football Outsiders. The counter-argument is that it wasn't just Cook's fault; the entire Rams passing attack was a disaster (which explains the need for Jared Goff) and Cook is a great athlete who's just needed a good quarterback. Though Richard Rodgers (and Justin Perillo for that matter) were statistically much better than Cook last season, Rodgers and Perillo can't get away from anyone in coverage while Cook has the upside to become a major playmaker. This move can't hurt but Cook's next great season will also be his first, so don't book him a ticket for the Pro Bowl just yet.

While the Packers didn't go for broke this offseason, Spriggs and Cook were nice additions but neither of them broke the bank, they didn't stand pat either and think that Nelson alone was going to make them a better passing team. When you have the franchise quarterback in place, it's important to focus on re-loading instead of re-building, and that's what they did this offseason.
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Friday, February 26, 2016

Hey Quarterback, Does Hand Size Really Matter?

Among quarterback, one advantage that Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have/had over their peers is that they've got big hands. As you might expect, it helps in bad weather games to be able to grip the football, and Rodgers has said that he's been blessed with some pretty big hands.

This all came up recently at the NFL combine because Cal's QB Jared Goff could be the first quarterback drafted in April and there were concerns before he measured up with nine-inch hands. This might have been specific to Goff because he notably was benched during a 2013 game (sheets of rain were coming down) because he couldn't hold onto the football. So having big hands that grip a football probably helps avoid fumbles and it might even help with QB accuracy.

But it doesn't help with the other 99 things a quarterback has to do like read defenses, checkdown receivers at the right times, audibles, leadership, etc. etc., so it isn't a sign that someone is going to be great just because he has meat hooks. But it also looks like you can't have average size hands and expect to be a starting NFL quarterback.
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Monday, February 01, 2016

Aaron Rodgers Had Minor Knee Surgery

After the Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins in the playoff Wild Card game, I looked back through the injury report to see when QB Aaron Rodgers had last been listed because something was wrong with him. Yes, his receivers were playing poorly and his offensive line was a disaster (at times) but he was also missing throws that he previously didn't miss. Against the Redskins, after completing his first attempt to WR James Jones, he was incomplete on his next seven attempts. Missing seven straight pass attempts for an NFL QB is rare these days, and I can't ever remember Rodgers going through such a bad streak. I thought he must still be playing through that right shoulder injury, though it hadn't been listed in weeks.

Now all teams stink at disclosing injuries, Mike Florio's been on them about this for years, and it looks like the Packers were part of the club. Maybe it was the combination of a sore shoulder and knee that messed up his accuracy, but his injured knee had to be the main suspect if it required surgery shortly after the end of the season.
The good news is that this doesn't seem to be a big deal. He'll be fully recovered and participating in the team's offseason program when it starts in April. The bad news is that this is the third season in a row where a mid-season injury (2013-collarbone, 2014-calf, 2015-knee/shoulder) took away a lot of what makes Aaron Rodgers a great quarterback. And, unfortunately, this is something that should be expected to continue each season now that he's over age 30 (he turned 32 in December).
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Friday, January 15, 2016

Packers Need To Dominate In The Air, Not On The Ground

Pro Football Focus is a great resource but I don't agree with them in this week's article previewing the Green Bay Packers playoff game in Arizona that the Packers can win if they run the ball.
The Cardinals have the 2nd best run defense this season according to Football Outsiders, and the Packers haven't shown the ability to consistently run the ball. The Cardinals' strong run defense might be exaggerated because their opponents were forced to throw to keep up with the Cards' offense but the Packers aren't the team to take advantage of it. Injuries to the offensive line and RB Eddie Lacy's ribs have taken all of the steam out of the ground game's engine this season.

One very good point is about QB Aaron Rodgers's accuracy. Bryson Vesnaver wrote at Pro Footbal Focus that Rodgers struggled against Washington without any pressure "completing just 58.6 percent of his passes...when in a clean pocket." I'm spoiled as a Packer fan but Rodgers's accuracy has been below his usual levels this season. He was especially bad early in the game, missing open receivers, but he was much better by the second quarter. But instead of emphasizing the ground game over the passing game, this means that Rodgers has got to get his accuracy back to near perfection. With the offensive line as healthy as it's going to get, the pass protection was at it's best against the Redskins.
It's more likely that Rodgers will have a perfect game than Lacy will shake his 2015 season slump. They'll win by leaning heavily on Aaron Rodgers.
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Wednesday, November 04, 2015

All The Packers Must Fix The Offense Articles Are Coming Out After Getting Clobbered By The Broncos

The short answer remains that the Green Bay Packers miss WR Jordy Nelson. By one measure, he accounted for 40% of their passing offense in 2014. So now some good intentioned articles are focusing on how the Packers can improve mid-season without Nelson.
Author Andy Benoit liked it when the Packers brought a wide receiver out of the backfield on short passes. I actually wish the Packers would do that more with RB Eddie Lacy instead of WR Randall Cobb, though Cobb has better hands. There's always the potential for a big play when Lacy has the ball in the open field and he hasn't been nearly productive enough this season in Nelson's absence.

When I initially looked at how the Packers could replace Nelson, I focused on the Packers getting more receivers involved in 2015. That hasn't happened but here's who can step up.

WR Davante Adams. He's missed most of the season with ankle injuries but finally returned against Denver. Unfortunately he did next to nothing in the Broncos game but it was only his first game back. He's got to get better as the season goes on.

WR Ty Montgomery. He's been sparingly used and plays an almost identical role to Cobb but he's also been the 2nd best WR of those who have had fewer than 32 targets this season. An ankle injury kept him out against Denver and he'll be welcomed back.

TE Justin Perillo. Perillo is the preferred No. 2 TE at the moment. The answer might be more receivers out in the formation with fewer blockers, and Perillo could become that forgotten TE in two-TE sets that can take advantage of a linebacker in coverage.

RB Eddie Lacy. He too has been battling an ankle injury but looked like his old self in the Denver game. Hopefully he can finish the season strong.

But maybe nothing will help as much as avoiding negative plays and converting on a higher rate of 3rd downs. Their 3rd down conversion percentage has been slowly sinking all season long, and it bottomed out at 25% against the Broncos. Remember that early drive when Lacy carried it twice from on 2nd and 3rd and short when they didn't pick up the 1st down? They can't afford any negative rushing plays at the moment and have to find plays that work on 3rd and short.

As much as the knee injury to Nelson has been the big story of the season on offense, a lesser story is the trifecta of ankle injuries (Adams, Montgomery, Lacy) that has taken away the three players who combined could replace Nelson's production. It's next man up time for one (or more) of these players to make the offense better for the rest of the season.
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Thursday, October 15, 2015

Packers Defense Is Rolling But What About The Offense?

I've been spoiled by QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense for a while. But for the first time in maybe forever, in the Football Outsiders weekly rankings, the offense (5th overall) is rated lower than the defense (4th overall). Most of this has to do with a much better performance this season by the defense, but last season, the offense was rated No. 1 overall by FO. What's to account for this mini-slump on offense?
The short answer is that the offense is missing WR Jordy Nelson. It's also been missing WR Davante Adams, but the good news is that he's back at practice this week. As good as WR James Jones has been, which isn't his fault because Nelson is one of the best in the NFL, he hasn't been effectively a replacement for Nelson. Jones and rookie WR Ty Montgomery are effectively replacing what was hoped for from Adams. Despite the extra attention above, Cobb's basically been the same as last season, though a few more passes have falling incomplete to him.

His absence has also hurt the ground game, probably because the opponent's safety is less worried about deep coverage without Nelson around and more interested in RB Eddie Lacy. The run game wasn't helped when RT Bryan Bulaga missed a few games either. Lacy's yards per carry are significantly down this season (4.6 in 2014 vs. 4.1 in 2015) and it's even worse for RB James Starks (3.9 in 2014 vs. 3.3 in 2015). With the run offense struggling, it's getting harder to convert on 3rd down. Here's how they've done through the first five games:
Team 3rd Down % Points Scored
Week 1 Bears 60% 31
Week 2 Seattle 36% 27
Week 3 Chiefs 36% 38
Week 4 Niners 33% 17
Week 5 Rams 31% 24
The offense has scored 17 points in their last two games, and the 3rd down conversion percentage is trending downward with each passing game. The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and that Week 1 conversion rate on 3rd down is looking more like the exception not the rule. The Packers converted for a 1st down on 47.2% of their 3rd downs in 2014 vs. 38.3% overall in 2015, so many drives that kept going last season are ending up with a change of possession.

Unfortunately there's no easy answer to get the offense back to how it was in 2014. Bulaga is back, which can only help since he's much better than Don Barclay, and Adams will eventually recover from his high ankle sprain. Montgomery should continue to improve during his rookie season. But the only player who can really take them to the next level is Nelson. So the best offense in the NFL might just have to settle for being No. 5 overall this season.
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Thursday, October 08, 2015

Week 4 QB Rankings: Aaron Rodgers Is Near The Top

After the Pro Football Focus article that gave QB Aaron Rodgers a negative score for throwing for 5 TDs and 0 INTs against the Chiefs, I wanted to look at how quarterback performance matches up with a team's record. They can write about the plays that are expected or plays the other team should make, but a negative shouldn't be taken from a positive. I'm not big on intangibles, but they are part of the game and players have to make plays. Some do, some don't.

There are 6 teams without a loss after 4 games, and as you might expect, most of those teams' without a loss are getting great play from their quarterbacks.
Week 4 QBR 2015 QBR FO
2015 Losses 2014 Rk
1 Roethlisberger 91.3 2 72.1 6
2 Dalton 87.7 0 53.9 2
3 Rodgers 87.3 0 77.4 4
4 Brady 83.1 0 74.6 1
5 Ryan 81.4 0 71.0 5
6 Palmer 80.3 1 67.7 3
9 Bridgewater 65.1 2 56.9 29
15 Cutler 58.2 3 52.8 16
25 Stafford 50.3 4 53.5 19
The two exceptions are Carolina and Denver, who are winning despite mediocre QB play from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. They're undefeated because of their great defenses and some help from the schedule makers.

The point is that Rodgers is just above or just below of three other undefeated QBs (Dalton, Brady, Ryan) which is right where he should be.
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Monday, October 05, 2015

The Defense Shuts Them Down: Packers Defeat 49ers, 17-3

It was a historic performance for the Green Bay Packers defense who held the 49ers to their worst offensive performance since 1963 or 1964. As the game went on, the Packer fans in attendance took over and flipped the home field advantage.
Why was the defense so good? RB Carlos Hyde couldn't run the ball, the run defense was all over him on every carry, and QB Colin Kaepernick has no accuracy downfield. At first, he wouldn't throw the ball deep, but when he finally did start going deep, he usually threw it out of bounds. He connected on one long pass to WR Torrey Smith but that was the exception. In the first half, Kaepernick had some success on designed cut back runs, but in the second half, FS HaHa Clinton-Dix went into the box to shut it all down. There were times in the third quarter when it looked like the Packers were playing with a single deep safety, sometimes it looked like it was only 4th stringer S Chris Banjo deep, but the 49ers still couldn't take advantage of it.

With so many defenders playing near the line, and LBs Nick Perry and Jayrone Elliott adding extra pressure along with the usual suspects (Matthews, Peppers, Daniels, etc.), they overwhelmed the 49ers' underwhelming offensive line.

I'd love to write that the Packers D has stepped up, but this was more about how far Kaepernick has fallen. When the announcers start talking about how much the coaches love QB Blaine Gabbert, it's a big problem. Until Kaepernick re-discovers his accuracy, he's not a starting NFL QB.

The offense struggled and QB Aaron Rodgers was frustrated in the first half. He admitted that they were off today. It looked like all the injuries finally caught up to them. Some of the receivers didn't seem on the same page, and that probably doesn't happen if Nelson, Adams and Quarless were playing instead of Montgomery, Janis and Backman.

But no starter was missed as much as RT Bryan Bulaga. I was OK with RT Don Barclay allowing pressure as long as he didn't allow hits or sacks. However, in this game, he gave up a couple hits and sacks in addition to all the usual pressures. That allowed 49ers LB Aaron Smith to get to know Rodgers up close and personal. I doubt the coaches will make a change at this point because Bulaga should be healthy in three weeks, and then Barclay can go back to the bench.

Another problem on offense was their 3rd down conversion rate (5 for 15) which is usually around 40 to 50 percent. They were 3 for 4 on 3rd downs in the 3rd quarter, and that's the quarter in which the offense score 10 points on consecutive drives. The reasons listed above ("off today" and Barclay) caused most of the problems, but penalties were also a semi-problem. LG Josh Sitton never commits penalties and he had two holding penalties on Sunday. Barclay will still be a problem in the near future, but otherwise the offense should be much improved by returning home to Lambeau for next week's game.

It wasn't the most impressive win, but winning on the road is never easy, and they've opened up a two game lead over their next closest NFC North rival.
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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Not Everyone Was A Fan Of Aaron Rodgers' Dismantling Of The Chiefs

I love Pro Football Focus because each week (and season) it assigns a grade to each player, and this is especially helpful for players like offensive lineman who rarely generate any traditional stats at all. PFF assigns one point for a good play and one negative point for a bad play. The only problem is that it's subjective; a person assigns the grade and different people focus on different things.

It's like with scouting, where some teams see QB Aaron Rodgers as worthy of a 1st round pick and 22 other teams (the Vikings twice!) decide he's not the best available player on their 2005 draft board. Different scouts have different opinions. I'll look at other stats when they're available for players, such as ESPN's QBR and Football Outsiders, and add additional facts to PFF's grades, such as I did last week about how the huge negative grade PFF assigned to David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay against the Seahawks wasn't the whole story.

So PFF got a lot of flack (deservedly) this week for assigning a negative grade to Rodgers after he threw for 5 touchdowns and no turnovers. Their defense of this grade has generated over 700 comments. For some comparison, they gave a positive grade to QB Nick Foles as he led the Rams to 6 points, no touchdowns, and the loss at home against a weak Steelers defense.
So how did Rodgers earn a negative grade?

Of his five touchdown passes, only two of them earned him a positive grade. The other three were "expected throws" to WR Randall Cobb and Cobb earned the positive grade (not Rodgers) for "fighting through contact or defeating the coverage with speed to the edge."

He earned negative grades for two turnovers that didn't happen. One of them, a dropped INT by LB Josh Mauga, was a real negative for Rodgers. He either didn't see him standing there or threw an ill advised pass. The other was a fumble in the second quarter when he stood in the pocket too long, but it was overturned by a penalty on CB Marcus Cooper. Rodgers picked on Cooper the entire game, and when he fumbled the ball, Rodgers was looking into the corner of the end zone where Cooper was defending. The flag was for illegal contact, and while sometimes those flags are called for a quick jab after 5 yards, on that particular play, Cooper was riding the receiver out of the back of the end zone. Somehow, PFF didn't appear to give Cooper a negative grade for that terrible penalty. The only reason it wasn't pass interference was that he didn't actually throw the ball. He held the ball too long because his intended receiver was being ran right off the field.

So two positive touchdown grades, and two negative turnover grades, and something else slightly bad, pushed him down to a negative 0.8 grade. That would be OK so long as you ignore everything else that was going on:
Rodgers is like an offensive coordinator standing on the field. He's watching everything, reading defenses, and picking them apart, like he did to the Chiefs on Monday. How about a positive grade for every time he adjusted the pass blocking? Or every time he saw single coverage while he was lined up before the snap and threw the receiver open? Or whenever he saw CB Tyvon Branch was "covering" someone and threw the ball to that receiver? Did he get any points for his two hard counts, when he drew off-side penalties and threw a long pass/touchdown while the defense was standing around? He made a 100 little decisions that made it look easy to throw 5 touchdown passes against the Chiefs, but he appeared to have received no points for it.

Many NFL QBs (such as Nick Foles) didn't manage a single TD pass last week, but Foles didn't receive any negative grades for the passes he couldn't even attempt because he couldn't move his team's offense into scoring position. It's a flawed scoring system that considers any NFL touchdown an "expected throw" because it's never that easy. Quarterbacks are so important to any offense that they always deserve some of the credit for their team's success.
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Thursday, September 24, 2015

The Packers Might Throw The Ball A Lot Against The Chiefs

Mike McCarthy never abandons the run completely. Sometimes it's a key part of the game plan and sometimes it's just there to distract the defense, and with RB Eddie Lacy, the defense can never ignore the ground game. But this looks like the week that the Packers will go into a pass heavy mode.

Part of the problem stems from their bookend tackles. Here's the analysis from Pro Football Focus after their win over the Seahawks:
They’re teammates on the Packers, and teammates on this list. Aaron Rodgers was running for his life as Barclay, filling in for injured right tackle Bryan Bulaga, allowed an unbelievable 10 QB hurries. Bakhtiari was hardly better, allowing seven QB hurries and both of the Seahawks’ sacks.
Neither of them is particularly strong when it comes to getting a push in the run game, or holding up against a bull rush on passing downs, but that pass blocking criticism above is a little too harsh. While they did allow many QB hurries, those hurries rarely resulted in hits or sacks. Both tackles were pushed around but they stayed on their blocks, which made pursuit difficult, and Rodgers moved around to find wide open areas where he picked the defense apart, as he did on this touchdown pass:
The tackles can hold up against the pass rush better than they can open up big holes for the running backs. It also doesn't help that Lacy might miss the game as he recovers from a sprained ankle. Though RB James Starks proved that he can be effective replacement, the Chiefs defense is really good against the run.

The Chiefs are ranked as currently having the 2nd best run defense by Pro Football Focus, and the 3rd best by Football Outsiders. But neither site had them ranked highly against the run in 2014, so these first two games might have been a sign that they played against teams (Houston and Denver) who are having trouble running the ball.

The Chiefs were pretty good to really good against the pass in 2014, depending on the site's rankings, mostly because of LB Justin Houston, who's a terror rushing the passer. But they're still missing their top cornerback for one more game, and outside of Houston, their pass rush and coverage isn't dominate. Despite Houston's presence, I don't know how they'll game plan for him, they'll probably have an easier time throwing than running against a stout run defense.
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Monday, September 21, 2015

Packers Beat Seahawks 27-17, But Lose Eddie Lacy To Ankle Injury

It was hard to watch all the carts drive off players during the first half (Eddie Lacy, then Davante Adams and Josh Boyd). But QB Aaron Rodgers was fantastic once again, including a sick touchdown pass to WR James Jones (of course) against CB Richard Sherman while jumping in the air. However, LB Jayrone Elliott was the surprise, big playmaker of the game.
Elliott has been a star of the last two preseasons, but it hadn't carried over into the regular season yet. The Packers tried everyone at outside linebacker in this game and they all struggled to generate a pass rush or contain QB Russell Wilson on the bootleg and cut backs. Most of the pass rush came against Seattle's interior lineman. Elliott was the last outside linebacker to take the field (Peppers, Matthews, Perry, Mulumba, and Neal all played snaps outside before Elliott) but the interception above was the turning point, and his forced fumble on RB Fred Jackson sealed the victory.

The pass coverage had at least one busted coverage and CB Micah Hyde allowed a couple big plays, but generally the coverage was tight and TE Jimmy Graham was held to only one catch. After getting exposed last week in Chicago, CB Sam Shields was rarely seen against the Seahawks (which is probably a good sign that he's getting the job done and we don't see him). The interior of the defensive line (Raji, Daniels, and Pennel) often overpowered the unheralded interior lineman of the Seahawks, and they were the big reason why RB Marshawn Lynch never got going on the ground.

RT Don Barclay struggled badly in the preseason during his first action since injuring his knee in 2014, but he was decent in place of RT Bryan Bulaga. Though it wasn't a perfect performance; he did miss blocks and was overpowered on one sack (LT David Bakhtiari was overpowered on the same play). It wasn't perfect and Rodgers was hit on more plays than I'd like to see, but his lineman overall gave him time to throw and RB James Starks some room to run against a tough run defense.

While Starks did have a great game, except for a first half fumble which, at least, wasn't turned into any points by the Seahawks, it was made possible by an ankle injury to Lacy. The early indication is that it's not serious, so hopefully it will be one of Starks's few big moments in 2015. He's a solid running back, but his track record with injuries makes it unlikely he'd survive an entire season.

It was a small coming out party for WR Ty Montgomery, who didn't blow up the stat sheet (4 receptions for 37 yards) but he had a couple 3rd down receptions on their final scoring drive that helped eat up a lot of clock. Also, he slipped away from Sherman in the first half and drew a 50+ yard pass interference call. It's not going to be all Jones as a replacement for WR Jordy Nelson, and it looks like Montgomery can take on some of the responsibility.

The Packers now get a little more time to recover, and let Lacy's ankle heal, as they don't play until next week Monday night. The Chiefs are a good team but playing them in Lambeau (the Packers last game against the Chiefs was in 2011, when they lost their only regular season game that year on the road in Kansas City) is a big help.
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Sunday, September 13, 2015

Packers Start 2015 1-0: Defeat Bears 31-23

The big story was obviously WR James Jones, who looked like he never left Green Bay. He signed early this week after being released by the New York Giants, and caught two touchdowns with a 3rd that was taken away by a penalty.
Technically the Packers had 30 run plays to only 23 pass attempts, but 8 of those rushes were by QB Aaron Rodgers and one was a lateral to TE Richard Rodgers after the pass protection broke down. So the Packers are keeping their pass heavy ways even though Tom Clements is technically calling the plays now instead of Mike McCarthy. Rodgers still calls a lot of the plays himself, so some things won't change, and again it was a nearly flawless game from Rodgers with a QBR of 94.4, 3 touchdowns and no turnovers. He even looked good when running, though I hope he does less of it as the season goes on.

Only five receivers were targeted, which surprised me because I was expecting the Packers would rely on many receivers to overcome the preseason loss of WR Jordy Nelson. All those targets that would have gone to Nelson last season have to go somewhere. Instead, they got a break when the Giants released Jones. I wasn't sure he would actually move ahead of WR Ty Montgomery, but it doesn't look like JJ's forgotten any of the offense, while I'm sure Montgomery is still learning it. Though Montgomery did make his mark with a big kickoff return.

Oh, CB Sam Shields. The Bears saw something they liked, and almost every running play and crossing route went to Shields's side of the field. He's great in single coverage down the sidelines, he knocked a touchdown pass away from WR Alshon Jeffrey in the end zone, but he struggled with nearly every open field tackle that came his way. It'll be something to watch as the season goes on, and the absence of starting S Morgan Burnett might have made the situation worse.

LB Clay Matthews is still a beast. He ran across the field to tackle a running back from behind on one play, and on the game clinching INT he ran from left to right tackle to make the interception. He didn't have a huge impact as a pass rusher, it was LB Julius Peppers's day in that department, but as long as Matthews's is healthy and still running at full speed, it's only a matter of time until the sacks come.

LB Nate Palmer in pass coverage. As you might expect, there's been some rough patches watching Palmer, a former college defensive end, adapt to life as a pass covering inside linebacker in the NFL. And he's coming off a lost season, and played the entire preseason with a giant club on his injured hand. The Packers lost LB Sam Barrington mid-game with an ankle injury, and though Barrington's no great shakes in pass coverage either, he's still probably better than Palmer.

As much as they struggled with RB Matt Forte on defense, they once again had no problem with QB Jay Cutler (who always seems to play his worst against the Packers) and the offense hummed along with the addition of Jones. Next week they host the Seahawks, who are looking for answers after their upset loss to the Rams, in arguably the biggest regular season game of the season.
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Sunday, February 15, 2015

Reaction: Packers to retire Favre's #4

With it being the early offseason, there isn't much to talk about around the NFL. However, there was one piece of Packers news this week: the overdue but still likable announcement that Brett Favre will have his number retired by the team this summer. 

Ever since the months leading up to Favre's 2008 trade to the Jets, it seems few in the Packers' fanbase are still supporters of the former quarterback. The common argument appears to be that his playing for the Vikings is simply unforgivable, no matter how much he previously did for Green Bay. 

But I guarantee you: those 16 seasons from 1992-2007 would've been a lot worse had Favre not been there.

He won a Super Bowl, simple as that. Some teams only dream of contending nowadays.

We should just admit it, this generation of Packers fans is spoiled. While the Bears and Vikings get a new quarterback every few years, the Packers have been blessed with Favre and Rodgers. They've made us view an 8-8 season as a failure and an appearance in the conference title game as okay. Some people's refusal to like Favre right now is an obvious side effect of their unfamiliarity with losing.

I'm a younger fan, so I'm more attached to Rodgers than Favre. But I will say that if Rodgers takes off in six or seven years to become a Viking/Lion, I'd forgive him. He'd still have done a lot for the organization, as is the case with Favre.

Bottom line: I'm happy Favre's getting his number retired. I don't think it'll be as well received as it should be since some still view him as an enemy, but I'm glad to see it finally happening. 

You should be too. 
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Sunday, February 01, 2015

Packers QB Rodgers named 2014 NFL MVP

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been named the 2014 NFL MVP.

Rodgers, who threw for 38 touchdowns and just five intereceptions this season, received 31 of 50 possible votes, by far the most of any candidate. Texans DE J.J. Watt was second with 13, while the Cowboys' DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo each had two. 

Rodgers had a 112.2 passer rating this year, the second best one in the league. He was also second with an average of 8.43 yards per attempt. 

This is the second time Rodgers has won the honor, having also done so in 2011.
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