2014 Free Agency: DE C.J. Wilson Signs With The Raiders

The Packers lose another player to GM Reggie McKenzie as DE C.J. Wilson signs a one-year contract with the Oakland Raiders.

MT @ESPN_NFLNation: Raiders add former #Packers DL C.J. Wilson http://t.co/oI9zW8YXJp
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 28, 2014

In 2010, Wilson was drafted in the 7th round, but I had seen some pre-draft projections listing him with a 4th round grade, so he seemed like a steal at the time. He played some in 2010 and more in 2011, but he's been such a zero as a pass rusher that he lost playing time in 2012 and barely played at all the last few weeks of 2013. For some reason he received 19 snaps against the 49ers in the playoffs and he earned a negative 1.5 grade from Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

His primary mission was to provide run support, and he earned positive run defense grade in each of his first three seasons from Pro Football Focus. But he wasn't much of a help in 2013, as the run defense collapsed mid-season, and Wilson lost nearly all his playing time to other players, like rookie Josh Boyd. It looked like the Packers were ready to move on.

As for the Raiders, Wilson has only been signed for depth, and he gives them more options in the upcoming draft. Instead of needing to draft a backup defensive lineman, they can look for the best player available instead.

2014 Free Agency: Packers Re-Sign Quarless and Raji

GM Ted Thompson never signs anybody who played for another team, but he has continued with his strong track record of re-signing his own players.

Most recently, B.J. Raji agreed to the deal that he said he's not interested in:

Raji deal expected to be worth around $4 million. Could be ncentives. It means TT has spent $16M in cap space on retaining five of his own.
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 14, 2014

and TE Andrew Quarless:

Quite a bargain price, no? RT @TomPelissero Andrew Quarless signed a 2-year, $3M deal with #Packers. $350K bonus. Bases of $800K, $1.3M.
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) March 13, 2014

Depending how the next few days go for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, no player probably made a bigger blunder than Raji, who turned down $20 million guaranteed before eventually signing for $4 million. He was awful last season, but there's just no downside at one-year and $4 million for the Packers.

I'm not a big fan of Quarless, he was very disappointing last season but I was probably hoping for too much from him. However, this contract is even more modest than it looks, with the larger base salary coming in 2015. At just over $1 million in 2014, he's getting paid like a backup, though he could be a solid starter if his run blocking returns to pre-2011 form. He looks like a steal considering the contract the Lions just handed out to an inferior TE; Brandon Pettigrew. I'd still love to see them sign TE Owen Daniels as their main pass receiving tight end. Then Quarless would be a solid No. 2 based on his 2013 production and 2014 price tag.

2014 Free Agency: Packers Re-Sign Mike Neal

I wasn't in favor of having the Green Bay Packers re-sign DE/LB Mike Neal because I thought he might get a big offer from another team since he's young and recorded 9.5 sacks over the last two seasons. Some other team might get stars in their eyes and think he can be even better in their system with more playing time. He really isn't an outside linebacker and I'd rather they try and find a real outside linebacker in free agency.

But Neal didn't find much of a market in free agency. Maybe other teams didn't know what to think of him either, and he re-signed with the Packers at a modest price with $2.5 million guaranteed.

Mike Neal Reportedly Gets $8 Million Over Two Years http://t.co/ik1oo8cTIJ #packers
— Cheesehead TV (@cheeseheadtv) March 13, 2014

Neal's best role is probably as a backup who can line-up anywhere when DC Dom Capers wants to bring an extra pass rusher. That seems to be what the Packers have in mind, based on what Jason Wilde wrote. He shouldn't start on the defensive line because that seemed to aggravate his knees, and he shouldn't start at outside linebacker because he was terrible at holding the edge against the run. I don't want to see him dropping back into pass coverage on a regular basis either. But as a situational pass rusher who they can line up at various positions, he's worth $8 million.

While GM Ted Thompson hasn't been known for paying $4 million annually for a backup player, they have so much salary cap room in 2014 (and it'll be hard for a two-year deal to cause future salary cap problems) that this contract is a good one.

2014 NFL Free Agency: Packers Sitting By The Sidelines (Which Is A Good Thing)

There were some huge contracts handed out to offensive lineman and safeties on the first day of free agency, which is the Dumbest Day of the NFL Year, so it's probably a good idea that the Packers stayed away. They did their part earlier by overpaying for CB Sam Shields. They need to make some moves in free agency, but hopefully it'll be after the prices have gone down. There are still a lot of good free agents available and here's the ever updating list to prove it.

Anyway, onto what the Packers actually did:

And the Chicago Bears announce they've signed #Packers safety M.D. Jennings to a one-year contract.
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) March 12, 2014

I was a little surprised the Packers didn't tender a contract to Jennings because they usually make an offer to all of their restricted free agents. It's a clear sign they didn't even think he was worth a million bucks and proof positive that he had zero chance of starting next season. In some way his signing by Bears makes a lot of sense because Jennings sometimes played the wrong coverage (which sometimes led to his benching) and the Bears' defensive backs all played the wrong coverage on the game losing touchdown pass to WR Randall Cobb, so the Bears seem to have a fondness for defensive backs who aren't sure what play was called (sarcasm). The Packers need a solution at safety and Jennings wasn't it.

However, I was surprised that they did tender a contract to LB Jamari Lattimore. It's a low one, but probably good enough to keep him in Green Bay. I doubt another team would negotiate a contract with him knowing the Packers would match it. I'm glad to see him return, but I didn't think the Packers would want to pay him $1.431 million to be a backup. He's now clearly in the mix for a starting job in 2014.

TE Jermichael Finley and C Evan Dietrich-Smith are making visits to Seattle and Tampa, respectively, but nothing appears eminent. The Bears might be interested in DE/LB Mike Neal. Meanwhile the Jets might be interested in WR James Jones. I do like TE Owen Daniels, who's expected to visit with the Packers, but I doubt he'd come cheap.

2014 Packer Free Agents: Sam Shields Wants A Reasonable Contract

I've been going through the list of key free agents for the Green Bay Packers in reverse order, starting with the 19 players who aren't really free agents and/or aren't going to command a multiple year contract, and moving onto the 5 guys who aren't really important to re-sign. I had a few more players to write about before I wrote about CB Sam Shields, who I viewed as their most important player to re-sign, but some recent news made me decide to write about him now.

According to reports, #Packers CB Sam Shields looks to land a four-year, $22.4 million contract this offseason http://t.co/oANRexsiBI
— Acme Packing Company (@acmepackingco) February 23, 2014

Those numbers rang a bell. Four-years, $22.4 million are exactly the same contract terms that CB Tim Jennings agreed to with the Bears back in January. Those two aren't exactly the same type of player (Jennings has played a lot of cover-2 and Shields is younger) but they're comparable players; starting caliber cornerbacks who aren't shutdown corners. They were within 0.1 of having the same overall 2013 grade according to Pro Football Focus. Maybe it's too much of a coincidence; someone is just assuming Shields should receive the same contract as Jennings. On the other hand, his agent (Drew Rosenhaus) isn't a dummy and probably knows his client's market value.

As a brief aside, there is a good argument to be made that their most important free agent this offseason is C Evan Dietrich-Smith. He had a very good 2013 season, better than I expected, and he played more snaps last season than any other free agent. He was very important to their team. However, he's a center, and he's playing alongside two veteran guards (who were both great in 2013 too). They might not want to re-sign another interior lineman to a big multi-year contract, and I think that if the Packers plugged someone like J.C. Tretter in at center alongside Lang and Sitton, we wouldn't notice the difference.

I really wanted them to re-sign Shields, but it would be an overpay to use the franchise tag on him, so I was concerned that they wouldn't be able to keep him from testing the market. Hopefully they can sign him to a new contract based on the terms that were reported yesterday.

2014 Packer Free Agents: James Starks and Andrew Quarless

With RB James Starks and TE Andrew Quarless, these are guys who could help the Green Bay Packers next season, maybe, but the team shouldn't make a huge effort to bring back.

Previously: Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji. Marshall Newhouse.

PackerMadness - James Starks becomes first Packers player to rush for 100 yards since 2010 http://t.co/1lKp9LDx8Y pic.twitter.com/3d3PHzHVac
— Packer Madness (@NFL_Madness) September 16, 2013

I really do like Starks, but the problem for him in the NFL is the same one he had in college; he can't stay healthy. A freak injury or two, like a broken collerbone, is one thing, but his injuries have been a persistent problem for years. The above picture is from his best game of the season (he played 64 snaps against the team from Washington in Week 2). The next week in Cincinnati, he got hurt, and he didn't play again until Week 8 against the Vikings. He was good in every game last season, his only negative scores from Pro Football Focus came in the weeks when he played on only a handful of snaps, but even in a relatively healthy year he still missed a few games. His unreliability is a big reason why he's no longer the starting RB and they drafted Eddie Lacy last season. He's good, but there's no need to spend big dollars or offer multiple years to a backup, injury prone RB.

Quarless was a major disappointment last season. After finally returning to health after a major 2011 injury, he was part of the rotation before TE Jermichael Finley's spinal injury (28 to 43 snaps per game) and he played even more (31 to 74 snaps) after it, but at no point did he improve. He wasn't a disaster as a receiver; he actually made little impact and was hardly featured (only 54 targets for the season), which wasn't good considering he was best known as a receiver coming out of college. Even worse, he was terrible as a run blocker, his cumulative 2013 season rating as a run blocker from Pro Football Focus was a minus 11.2, while he was considered the best blocker among the tight ends before his 2011 injury. A tight end who isn't a plus as a receiver and terrible as a run blocker shouldn't be a priority to re-sign.

2014 NFL Franchise Tag: Might The Packers Use It?

The franchise tag period is getting a little overrated these days. The big problem is that there hasn't been much of an increase in the salary cap over the past couple years. It might be between $126 to $128 million in 2014, up from $123 million in 2013, but the franchise tag is such a big number (often over $10 million) that a lot of teams just aren't able to make it work. Plus, the players hate it because it's less likely they'll receive a long-term deal (and giant signing bonus) after they've been tagged. Only eight players received the franchise tag in 2013.

A former agent writing at CBSSports.com noted that GM Ted Thompson has only used the franchise tag on two occasions (Ryan Pickett and Corey Williams) while mentioning only two possible candidates in 2014: CB Sam Shields and B.J. Raji.

Tom Silverstein thinks the franchise tag amount of $11+ million might be too rich for Shields, and I'd agree with him. Shields' cumulative cornerback grade at Pro Football Focus is just below (and similar) to CB Sean Smith, who signed a three-year, $16.5 million contract with the Chiefs last March. The Bears recently re-signed CB Tim Jennings for four-years and $22.4 million, another player similar to Shields. The franchise tag of $11+ million would be a substantial overpay, though Shields could end up receiving more than either Smith or Jennings because he's younger and has more speed.

I have no idea why Raji's mentioned as a franchise tag candidate, he's listed as one of the top candidates according to NFL.com, but he hasn't recorded a sack in forever and his run defense went into the tank late last season. Why would they pay him $9.2 million in 2014? It would be stupid to tag Raji, and Ted Thompson doesn't do stupid.

So it doesn't look like the Packers will be using the franchise tag in 2014. I still want the Packers to re-sign Shields, but I don't want them to use the franchise tag on him. No other free agent looks like a viable candidate.

So Who's Right About The Packers and Their Intentions In Free Agency?

Last week there were two media reports about the Green Bay Packers and how they might approach free agency this offseason.

The counterpoint came from Mike Vandermause, who doubts the source of the rumor was GM Ted Thompson and therefore it shouldn't be relied on. That's an excellent point, and it would be contrary to everything we've seen from the Packers in recent years. However, the Packers have kicked the tires on many free agents over the past few years, but they've usually balked at the asking price. In almost every instance, passing on an overpriced free agent was the best decision. Except there are a couple factors that have changed this offseason.

First, the defensive line was so bad last season that many free agents would provide an immediate upgrade, so long as it's not some Anthony Hargrove type bargain/reclamation project. Second, the Packers don't have a lot of big free agents of their own to re-sign. Sam Shields could be in line for a big contract, but no one else should expect a huge deal this March. Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, and (unfortunately) Morgan Burnett all received extensions in the last year. There's no rush to extend Bryan Bulaga until he can prove he's healthy. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will have to be considered for extensions, they'll both be free agents in 2015, but neither one will crush the salary cap. Third, the Packers usually have room under the salary cap, but they don't usually have this much room (around $29 million). This isn't the same-old offseason situation.

I think the sources that Ian Rapoport mentions are probably agents, maybe B.J. Raji's agent since Rapoport's tweets addressed the defensive line and specifically mentioned Raji. Unfortunately most reports from unnamed sources turn out to be false, but I can at least see how it's possible that the Packers might actually open up their wallet for a defensive lineman or two this offseason.

Not A Joke: The Packers Plan To Spend In Free Agency

I hope you're sitting down for this surprising news:

From Total Access: I’m told #Packers plan to spend money on outside free agents this year with nearly $30M in cap space. Could most in years
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 13, 2014

And where might they want to spend their hard earned salary cap dollars?

What is #Packers plan? They want to re-make their D in Dom Capers’ image, going more athletic & versatile up front. May mean goodbye to Raji
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 13, 2014

They'd be looking for faster lineman in the 290 lb. range, with a similar body type to DE Datone Jones. Maybe the ideal player would be similar to DE Mike Daniels.

And now might be the perfect time to make a change. DE B.J. Raji did nothing in the final year of his rookie contract, and NT Ryan Pickett had one of his worst seasons (he received a negative grade from Pro Football Focus and his run defense rating fell hard). Both of them are free agents, and their absence will free up a lot of salary cap space; they combined for almost 10% of the 2013 cap charge.

I don't know if the Packers are thinking of making one or two big signings. Or maybe they want to sign multiple players at mid-level contracts, similar to what the Seahawks did last season when they signed LB Cliff Avril and DE Michael Bennett for about $10 million combined in 2013. Either way can work, but I'm going to throw a couple names out there if the Packers want to go big:

DE Greg Hardy. He should be the first name to leap to everyone's mind. He's 25 years old, weighs 290 lbs. and he's coming off back-to-back double digit sack seasons. He'll be looking for a monster Mario Williams like contract, and I can't say that I blame him. His price could be too high, but he does belong at the top of the list and he immediately changes the defense.

DT Jason Hatcher. He's an inside rusher versus the lighter Hardy, but he's still under 300 lbs. and he'll get after the quarterback. His 11 sacks and gaudy 26.9 rating as a pass rusher according to Pro Football Focus in 2013 are screaming "career year" but he's been good for the past few seasons. He'll turn 32 before the start of next season, which isn't as appealing as the much younger Hardy, but he's more likely to be available. Jerry Jones is so bad that the Cowboys have to shed $25 million just to get under the 2014 salary cap.

DT Randy Starks. He's even less like Hardy; over 300 lbs. and turning 31 before the end of the 2014 season. But he's also a very good interior pass rusher who's only gotten better in that regard over the past two seasons. The Dolphins actually have even more salary cap space than the Packers, which would seem to indicate that Starks is a lock to re-sign, however, the Dolphins' front office is a mess and it wouldn't be a shock to see them bungle it. Their new GM was something like their seventh choice, who knows what he'll do this offseason, and a likely playoff berth in 2014 with the Packers might have a lot more appeal to Starks than another 7-9 finish in Miami.

The Packers were so bad on the defensive line last season, the only defensive lineman to earn a positive grade from Pro Football Focus was Mike Daniels, that the Packers could settle on some lesser names, and they'd still provide a huge upgrade. They can't mess this up if they're serious about spending.