2018 Week 13: The Packers Lose in a Shocking Upset by the Cardinals and Mike McCarthy is Fired

At the start of this season, I thought it was low odds that the Green Bay Packers would fire Mike McCarthy. While I've been unimpressed with the overall talent level on the current roster, the return of Aaron Rodgers should be enough for 10+ wins and another playoff run. Obviously I was wrong.

pic.twitter.com/VeBPTv8pRb

— Justis Mosqueda (@JuMosq) December 2, 2018

I didn't agree with this tweet until recently. In hindsight, he's right. The greatness of the 2010 and 2011 seasons had been fading for a while. Now looking back at a great 2014 season, I can see how much it was propped up by elite play from Rodgers, Nelson, and Cobb. It wasn't going to be sustainable, and it started to fall apart quickly in 2015 after Nelson was lost for the season. In early 2016, it wasn't McCarthy's fault and once they get Nelson back, Ted Thompson will continue to run a beautiful draft and they'll get back on top.

I had no explanation for why Dom Capers was still the DC after the 2015 season (probably sooner) but I like retaining coaches year after year. This is one of several general assumptions that I need to reconsider.

Though it took a furious finish to get back to the NFC Championship Game in 2016, I wasn't worried. The Falcons had a great 2016 season and once their young players are experienced and healthy in the secondary, they'll have a great 2017 season.

But the 2017 season was lost after Rodgers broke his collarbone, and it should have been clear to me that McCarthy's departure was inevitable. He was unable to coach Brett Hundley into a respectable QB and his team completely gave up on him during their Week 17 loss in Detroit. It was Detroit's players who were rallying around their HC (Jim Caldwell was fired anyway) and it felt like McCarthy should have been fired instead of Caldwell.

Maybe McCarthy would have been fired if GM Ted Thompson wasn't fired reassigned. The beautiful drafts didn't happen. Though the 2016 draft produced three starters, the 2017 draft class might be a total loss other than Aaron Jones. Aside from Jones, the Packers haven't drafted a key contributor on offense since Adams and Linsley in 2014. Maybe Murphy didn't want to change everything that was long-standing at once, and McCarthy deserved another chance.

I'm going to miss loading up #Packers tape on Monday morning and being able to guess about 30% of the plays correctly before the snap. Sigh.

— Mike Tanier (@MikeTanier) December 3, 2018

I thought the 2018 season was over when Rodgers's knee was bent back the wrong way in Week 1, but he had a couple of furious comebacks to keep this season afloat. When he complained about the bad offense against the Bills in Week 4, I thought he was underestimating a pretty good defense. He's also had to rely on a couple of rookie wide receivers which was going to be a problem until they're both more experienced.

But the stale offense that couldn't get anything out of Hundley in 2017 was again a problem even with Rodgers. It wasn't awful, but it could and should be better.

Ever since they lost a pair of road games to the Rams and Patriots, I thought the season was over (though not technically). The team was still playing hard, but that stopped against the Cardinals. The thought of watching them play out four more games that looked like 2017 Week 17 in Detroit was an awful feeling, and for that reason I'm glad Murphy decided to fire McCarthy mid-season. He was going to be fired after the season anyway, the excuses that could have been used for 2015-2017 just weren't going to work anymore.

And they'll need time to find the right coach. I'm not a fan of Vikings OC, John Defilippo, or Patriots OC, Josh McDaniels. After what McDaniels did to the Colts this year, I don't think he deserves another HC offer anywhere. The new coach will have to be someone who can engage Rodgers at his high level (Joe Philbin is not that guy) while still being able to team the basics to the young receivers and backs. Murphy probably knows the NFL as well as anyone and right now I'm optimistic. 

I don't know what to expect over the final few games. It's time to give the players who will be the anchors in 2019 to get fewer reps on defense and let players like Oren Burks play an entire game. Finally send Byron Bell to the bench and give fewer reps to Adams. It would seem hard (maybe impossible?) to find an excuse to bench Rodgers. If Philbin wasn't coaching for his job, I'd suggest he hand over play calling to Rodgers and let him try and find a rhythm with the young receivers Tonyan, MVS, and EQB.

I'm surprised at this is how the 2018 season has went though firing McCarthy was unfortunately the right decision.

Packers Playoff Loss: Still Taking It All In

[UPDATE: While I picked on Hayward below it appears that CB Damarious Randall was to blame for the blown coverage.] CB Casey Hayward is soon to become a free agent. While he's a good player, he seems to make mistakes that might give the front office pause on whether he's a keeper. DE Mike Daniels already got his mid-season extension but unless Hayward isn't in demand (which seems unlikely since CBs have been getting paid in free agency) I don't see the Packers re-signing him. It's plays like the opening one in OT, when WR Larry Fitzgerald deployed a cloaking device and ran right past him, that makes me wonder.

How did Larry Fitzgerald end up so wide open on the first play of overtime? "We blew a call," Packers cornerback... https://t.co/GcvUnVscYY

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) January 17, 2016

It's been a struggle on offense this season (QB Aaron Rodgers does need a healthy offensive line, which he finally got in the playoffs, and a deep roster of receivers) but these two Hail Mary plays, side-by-side show how he's made up for some of it. It's also interesting that both defenses played it completely different. The Lions took a lot of criticism for defending a series of laterals that never came, instead of the Hail Mary, and they didn't bring much pressure because they were expecting the short pass. The Cardinals, instead, brought the house and got into Rodgers's face immediately, and they only dropped four into coverage. Rodgers spun away from the rush and still managed to throw the pass he needed anyway. Two different defensive schemes to the same scenario, but Rodgers made the result the same.

I'm all for taking risks, and understood why Bruce Arians passed late in the game when he could have run out the clock. If the Cardinals had completed that fade pass to Fitzgerald, then the game was over. But the Cardinals were the favorites and they've been the better team all season, so they could have taken the lower percentage path to victory (and probably won in regulation, if they'd wiped out another 35 seconds). The Packers, on the other hand, could have gone for the two point conversion to end the game before OT. I understand the math and the Packers probably had a better chance of converting then rather than winning in OT, but it's a one-and-done scenario. Instead of giving his team a few chances to make a big play in OT, Mike McCarthy would have gave them just one. Unfortunately, the secondary blew the coverage in their first opportunity to make a play in OT, but McCarthy made the right call for the extra point. He should give his team more than one chance to win, though Bill Barnwell below explains why he thinks McCarthy should have gone for two.

Ultra-rare (first?) Sunday morning column today on why Bruce Arians was right and Mike McCarthy was wrong yesterday https://t.co/iIIIvf019R

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 17, 2016

The Packers' 2015 Season Ends Like The 2014 Season, With An Overtime Loss At An NFC North Opponent, Cardinals Win 26-20

The Green Bay Packers defense gave them a chance in this game, and they didn't let the team down until they allowed two late TD drives which gave the Cardinals the lead in the 4th quarter and then gave them the win in OT. It was better than the offense could do. Outside of a long run by RB Eddie Lacy, the Packers' rushing attack wasn't much of a help. With WR Randall Cobb injured early, and WR James Jones shut out by CB Patrick Peterson, their top two receivers caught zero passes. But three big completions to WR Jeff Janis for two touchdowns gave them just enough offense to force OT. It was a wild ride, starting with a dumb luck, ricochet TD pass to WR Michael Floyd.

WATCH: Michael Floyd's tipped-pass catch gives Cardinals late lead on Packers https://t.co/XdbQUbwO5w pic.twitter.com/r5l0vEMnSI

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 17, 2016

Then QB Aaron Rodgers answered with an amazing Hail Mary pass to WR Jeff Janis for the tie.

Hail Mary 2.0! #GBvsAZ #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/6NvBoD1x7p

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 17, 2016

But a 75 yard pass play to start OT, when the Packers' pass rush doesn't quite get to QB Carson Palmer, ends their season.

This is the play before The Play after The Other Play: Larry Fitzgerald starts OT with a 75-yard catch #BeRedSeeRed https://t.co/PQIxOy1FMX

— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2016

It was a great season, and an amazing run considering QB Aaron Rodgers played this game without his expected top 3 receivers (Nelson, Cobb, Adams) and had no passing yards to his best remaining receiver (Jones), but they were so close, just like last season, and you never know when the opportunity might come again.

To Beat The Cardinals; Aaron Rodgers Is Going To Have To Be Great

There's no other way to look at it; the Green Bay Packers are the statistically weakest 2015 team still in the playoffs and they have the hardest road to the Super Bowl.

ICYMI: Ranking the paths to the Super Bowl by difficulty for each remaining team https://t.co/hW9HXLQoA7

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 11, 2016

It's useful to look back at the Packers' 2010 season (2011 playoffs) when they went on a road playoff run and advanced to the Super Bowl. But that was a different team, which never trailed by more than seven points at any time during the 2010 season and might have been the greatest 10-6 team in NFL history. They were the 4th highest rated team of 2010 according to Football Outsiders, and the best remaining team in the NFC after they beat the Eagles that year in the Wild Card game. The 2015 Packers don't have a lot in common with them.

The 2015 Packers' best comparison is the 2012 Ravens, which was the 9th best team of 2012 according to FO, and won the championship behind the arm of QB Joe Flacco. He was OK that regular season (ESPN QBR of 49.2, which was dragged down by two disastrous losses vs. the Texans and Broncos) but he outplayed nearly every statistically measurement during the playoffs (11 TDs and 0 INTs in 4 playoff games). QB Aaron Rodgers has been better during the 2015 regular season in almost every way compared to Flacco v.2012, and he had one of his best games of the season against the Redskins last week. Now he's going to have to do it again while also improving on the lowly 5.83 ypa he had during that Wild Card game.

There's no good way to look back and see any positives from the 38-8 beating the Packers had pasted on them by the Cardinals three weeks ago. The upgrade to Tretter (if Bakhtiari is still out with an ankle injury) over LT Don "revolving door" Barclay will make them much more competitive. While he had a good game against the Redskins, WR Davante Adams has been a problem all season and his MCL injury might provide a boost to the Packers' offense by giving more reps to WR Jared Abbrederis. But those are marginal improvements and not enough to overcome a 30 point difference. The Packers (Rodgers in particular) are going to have to play their best.

The Cardinals are a great team, and they're about as good in 2015 as the Packers were in their 2010 when they were on their way to the Super Bowl, but they're not without their flaws. Rodgers played great against the Redskins because his pass protection was solid. The Cardinals were outstanding at getting after Rodgers three weeks ago, but the benching of Barclay alone makes a big difference and the Cardinals aren't the best at pressuring the QB. They also lost two defensive players to injury over their bye week and were forced to sign LB Jason Babin to provide some depth for Saturday's game. Neither of the two players lost to injury (Okafor and Redding) are defensive cornerstones but it's a sign that the Cardinals don't have much of a pass rush outside of DE Calais Campbell.

There's no statistical advantage the Packers are bringing to their next playoff game; they're going to have to play their best game of the season if they want to beat the Cardinals on Saturday.

Cover Your Eyes: Packers Beaten Badly In Arizona, 38-8

I thought the loss at Denver was going to be their worst loss of 2015, but the Green Bay Packers one upped themselves with a terrible loss in Arizona. Still, it's good to remember that they've already made the playoffs and knocking the Cardinals out of the No. 2 playoff spot was always a long shot.

The Cardinals overall have been a better team this season, but the Packers can make themselves a whole lot better if they could get their offensive lineman back healthy. That would make them a much, much better team:

.@PaulCalvisi wraps up #GBvsAZ and @LisaCharisseB chats w/ #AZCardinals CB Jerraud Powers. https://t.co/w0v4CcV7rM pic.twitter.com/izBjaI2b21

— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) December 28, 2015

The Packers have asked a lot of backup LT/RT Don Barclay this season, and he's been a complete disaster. The former undrafted player had some good moments in 2012 and 2013, but those are long gone. On the play above, he was a revolving door for veteran DE Dwight Freeney, who had been looking for an NFL job for months before the Cardinals finally called him in October, and he had three sacks on Sunday. Barclay has been a lot worse than former 1st round OT Derek Sherrod, who was so bad in 2014 that he was cut mid-season though he only had played in a couple games. If the Packers had any other decent backup tackle, Barclay would have probably been released mid-season too. They have to go with someone other than Barclay for the rest of the season, to at least give themselves a chance.

In Barclay's slight defense, the entire line was a disaster. DE Calais Campbell was a nightmare in the middle (he drove LG Josh Sitton back on a play in the first quarter that led to a sack). RT Bryan Bulaga was having a bad day too until he was sidelined with an ankle injury.

The good news is that none of the injuries to their starting offensive lineman are serious. But they won't be back to full health before the playoffs start either. If Sitton and Lang can continue to play next week while LT David Bakhtiari and Bulaga (and Corey Linsley too) rest, maybe they'll be in good enough shape for a playoff run. But then Mike McCarthy is going to have to work out a different game plan to account for a couple of missing lineman against the Vikings.

As for the rest of the team, there's one other personnel move that would help; it's time to bench WR Davante Adams. I've been all for giving him another chance this season but bad things seem to happen when he's in the game. He spends too much time dropping passes and running poor routes with only the occasional big play to make up for it. He should get another chance to prove himself next preseason, after another off-season of work and practice, but right now they should be giving their other receivers more playing time. WR Jared Abbrederis is healthy now and he's had the entire season to get used to the offense, after barely playing at all last season or this preseason because of injuries. While I'm not his biggest fan, WR Jeff Janis can't be much worse than Adams at this point.

While the offense might be the weakest it's been since Aaron Rodgers became the starting QB, it can be a lot better with those couple moves. Meanwhile, the defense and special teams are about as good as they've been at any time over the past several seasons, though Dom Capers has to improve a pass rush that disappeared against the Cardinals after two early sacks. They have to focus right now on getting as healthy as they can over the next two weeks, and make a couple moves on the offensive side of the ball (Barclay and Adams) so that this was their last loss of the season.

Odds For Wild Card Weekend Released

The odds for this weekend's Wild Card games have been released, and though they're interesting, not much about them is too surprising.

In both NFC games, the home team is favored by 6 1/2 points, with the Panthers being picked to beat the Cardinals and the Cowboys the Lions. In the AFC, meanwhile, the hosts are each favored by 3, the Steelers over the Ravens and the Colts over the Bengals.

So yeah, nothing too weird. But hey, at least you know, and now we can all accept even further that the Packers' next opponent will probably be the Cowboys.

Predicting What the NFC Playoff Picture Will Look Like With Five Games to Go

Why not? Let's guess what things will look like:

1. NFC North:

The Packers clearly have control of the North right now, having a winnable five games ahead of them. The Patriots may give them problems, as is the case with the Buccaneers and Bills (the two road teams they still have to play), but nonetheless, I expect them to eventually come out on top with a 13-3 record, beating the Lions in Week 17.

2. NFC South:

This division's terrible, with the Saints and Falcons currently leading it at 4-7 each. 

Still, since somebody has to win it I'll take the Saints at 8-8, as they seem to have the easier schedule.

3. NFC East: 

I'd like to see the Eagles take this one, but as long as Mark Sanchez is starting against the Seahawks, it just doesn't seem likely. Expect the Cowboys to claim it at 12-4.

4. NFC West:

The West will go down to the wire, but in the end, I see the 12-4 Cardinals emerging as its champs. The 49ers will be right behind them at 11-5, while Seattle will fall to 9-7.

Wild Card Teams

The Eagles, Lions, and 49ers will all be 11-5, so two of those three. I'm not sure exactly how they would decide that, so I'll just leave it there.

Leave your thoughts below.

Former Packers LB Bishop Signs With Cardinals

Former Packers LB Desmond Bishop has signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals, Pro Football Talk reports.

From 2007-2012, as you probably remember, Bishop was a constant contributor to Green Bay's defense, even starting for them in 2010 and 2011.

However, during the 2012 preseason opener Bishop sustained a severe hamstring injury, ending his year and eventually leading to his release the following offseason.

Since then, unfortunately, things haven't really gotten any better for the former Super Bowl Champion, definitely making this piece of news likable, as it gives a deserving veteran another chance to help out a playoff contender.

Packers Sign CFL LB Korey Jones

The Packers have signed LB Korey Jones and cut Shaun Lewis, Bleacher Report reports. 

Jones, a 2013 grad of the University of Wyoming, signed and spent last year's training camp with the Cardinals, getting cut shortly before the regular season.

Still, the youngster did spend the fall playing with the CFL's British Columbia Lions, where he apparently impressed enough to draw some NFL interest.

As of now, unsurprisingly, the details of this deal have not been released, although one somewhat interesting thing has: Jones will wear #47.

No, that isn't ground-breaking information, but since it has been made public it might as well be known.