Down The Stretch: The Packers Last Four Games of the 2015 Season

Despite their mid-season swoon on offense (if their injuries at receiver weren't enough, the injuries on the offensive line are a bigger problem at the moment) and their defense's struggles to create a pass rush without blitzing a defensive back, the Green Bay Packers are at 8-4 and a top the NFC North. The main concern is going to be the Minnesota Vikings and winning the NFC North title, though a wild card birth is a strong possibility even if they struggle down the stretch.

With one game remaining against each other, and both the Packers and Vikings are traveling to Arizona for one game, their schedules are very similar. Each team plays another team with a long-shot chance at the playoffs (Packers at Raiders, Vikings host Giants) and another one against a team that's just finishing out the season (Packers host Cowboys, Vikings host Bears).

Confidence is important for a team, not the most important thing but it's a factor, and for what it's worth, the Packers have a lot of confidence after winning a game on a Hail Mary pass while the Vikings completely fell apart at home against the Seahawks. It's never a good thing when a team's star player starts calling out his coaches in public.

Our story on Adrian Peterson's frustration with his number of carries today, and what's behind it: https://t.co/FzyCfOQlpC

— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingESPN) December 7, 2015

I'd love to say I know how the next four games are going to go for the Packers but they've been so inconsistent while losing four of their last six games that it's hard to predict. However, the Broncos game being the exception, after every time they've fallen behind recently, they've managed to stage a late game rally or comeback win. So no matter how bad they look (i.e. the first quarter against the Lions) they'll still have a chance to rally. The Cowboys game should be a win but nothing is a given right now. Traveling across the country to play the Raiders feels like a trap game before they visit the Cardinals (which is their toughest remaining game). Then it'll be a rematch against the Vikings which might be the game to decide who'll make the playoffs.

More Video of Packers Hail Mary Win Over The Lions

Same ole lions 🦁

A video posted by Brandon Movitz (@brandicle) on Dec 3, 2015 at 8:54pm PST

Packers Pull Off Hail Mary In Detroit: Beat Lions 27-23

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

On the final play of the game, the Packers drew what was probably the weakest face mask penalty I've ever seen (it only looked weak on slow motion replay, at full speed it looked a lot worse) but that's not what I'm talking about by luck. How many times does a Hail Mary work? QB Aaron Rodgers said he's never thrown one before. How many times are there four fumbles in a game and the Packers recover all four of them?

Rodgers to Rodgers for the WIN! #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/c2AkUXAzU3

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 4, 2015

The Packers are usually not a slow starting team, but this game featured one of the slowest starts I can remember from them, on both sides of the ball. The Lions easily moved down the field against the Packers' defense for their first two scoring drives, and I can't remember the last time Rodgers threw too high for a receiver and had it intercepted. The Packers looked dead in the first quarter with 38 yards of offense and 1 interception, while the Lions had three scoring drives and 133 yards of offense. Lions 17, Packers 0.

But the defense came alive in the second quarter and forced four Lions punts, though the Packers' offense remained scoreless. Both teams were hurt by their inability to run the ball, and the Lions are hurt just as badly as the Packers by their lack of depth at wide receiver. Here are some of the first half stats and it's real ugly for the Packers' offense:

Team	Yards	3rd Down %	Turnovers	Score
Packers	78	0%	1	0
Lions	151	29%	0	17

The Lions started the second half off with a 71 yard drive that led to another field goal, and it pushed their lead up to 20-0, but then they only had 84 yards on their next four drives combined, including a strip sack fumble that set up the Packers' second touchdown. While they did score another field goal in the fourth quarter, their offense had four chances to put the game out of reach and the Packers' defense stopped them.

As for the offense, obviously this was TE Richard Rodgers's game, but a lot of breaks went the Packers' way and none of these breaks were bigger than their fumble luck. While the Lions had one fumble that was recovered in their red zone, the Packers had three fumbles and they recovered them all, including a fumble by RB James Starks that was recovered by WR Randall Cobb for a touchdown.

The offense also started playing better. Even before he caught that Hail Mary pass, Richard Rodgers had around 70 yards receiving in the second half, WR Davante Adams had his first touchdown reception of the year, and Starks was good for some yards on screen passes. Rookie RB John Crockett, he was with the Packers during the preseason but was just re-signed this week, got a few carries to give the offense their best rushing yards (other than Aaron Rodgers's touchdown scramble) of the night.

So the Packers played what was probably their worst all-around quarter of the season in the first quarter, trailed 17-0, and then managed to do just enough on offense (along with a little fumble luck) to get themselves in place for the game winning Hail Mary pass. In the end, there are no style points and it's all about which team gets the W, but this was one of the least impressive wins I can remember and I don't feel like this 2015 team has turned a corner. I don't think their season would have been over if they'd lost this game either, but they need at least 10 wins from somewhere to make the playoffs (maybe 9 wins would get them in too) and this gets them a third of the way there.

Now the Packers get a little time off and don't play again until Sunday night, December 13th, at Lambeau against the Cowboys. And I'll be there! Freezing my butt off no doubt but I'll be having a great time. Hopefully I lose my voice and watch the Packers earn their ninth win of the season.

Packers Lose Another NFC North Game At Home: Bears 17, Packers 13

It was appropriate that the Green Bay Packers' last offensive play against the Chicago Bears was an incomplete pass to WR Davante Adams. There might have been nothing he could have done on that particular play but this post is going to be all about him.

Mistakes pile up on offense in loss to Bears. #Packers locker room report: https://t.co/OQQswbiK9q pic.twitter.com/6CmeRDo7G4

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 27, 2015

When the offense is struggling, it's usually because one thing is broken. In prior years, sacks have been a major problem and its easy for one sack to put the brakes on an entire drive, even if it doesn't happen on 3rd down. It's the same with incomplete passes, and while fingers could be pointed at WR James Jones (who had zero receptions on six targets against the Bears) for disappearing from game-to-game, or WR Randall Cobb for a down season, the spotlight is glaring on Adams.

Currently Adams has a negative DYAR ranking according to Football Outsiders. Most receivers are positive, but there are some good receivers with negative one. WR Dez Bryant currently has a negative DYAR because of his foot injury and the three headed QB hydra that's been a problem all season in Dallas. Adams had a high ankle sprain earlier this season to blame, but it looks a lot worse when you compare Adams to all the other receivers that have registered a negative DYAR since 2008 (the first year QB Aaron Rodgers became a starter):

Player	Season	Passes	DYAR
Davante Adams	2015	64	-28
Jarrett Boykin	2014	12	-38
Myles White	2013	12	-21

It's a very short list and only includes wide receivers who had at least 10 targets during any season since 2008. Neither White or Boykin are still with the team (for good reason) and at least with them, they were obviously not part of the solution and given very few opportunities. On the other hand, the Packers have been forcing the ball into Adams over the past few weeks and he led the team in targets during each of their losses to the Lions and the Bears. During those two close, home losses, on passes to Adams, Rodgers was 12 for 32, 93 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT.

Obviously that's cherry picking, another player to pick on is James Jones who had zero catches for zero yards in those two games. But Adams hasn't made up for it in other games so they could overlook his flops (and drops) against the Lions and Bears. Adams doesn't have a single receiving touchdown in 2015, and his negative DYAR not only stands out poorly in 2015, Aaron Rodgers has never had a receiver struggle like Adams.

Mike McCarthy said after the Bears game that he's going to make changes. Adams is the obvious choice, but TE Richard Rodgers also has a negative DYAR in 2015 (he was negative in 2014 too) and might have fallen behind TE Justin Perillo. Run and pass blocking might also play a factor in this decision too.

The first replacement for Adams is probably WR Jeff Janis. While it may seem like it's about time, over their last two games, Janis has played on 32 offensive snaps and he's had the ball thrown to him twice for zero receptions. It doesn't look like he's getting open and/or earned his quarterback's trust. It's probably a stretch to imagine either WR Jared Abbrederis or WR Ty Montgomery will return to health by Thursday. There's someone on the practice squad, but I'm not going to even consider him. If injuries are still a problem, there isn't a strong Plan B available.

So the good news is that there is a solution. Focus on the good receivers with positive DYAR (Cobb, Jones, Janis, Perillo) and significantly reduce the roles of the receivers who are negative (Adams, Richard Rodgers). Both Adams and Rodgers were 2014 draft choices and still probably need time to develop, but if it hasn't happened yet then it's probably not happening this season. They can be considered as part of the future but not the present. The playoffs are still within sight as they currently hold a wild card spot, and have two more NFC North games remaining. Making an adjustment to their offensive game plan, along with the healthy return of RB Eddie Lacy over their last two games, could get them right back on track for the NFC North title.

Packers Host Bears On Thanksgiving; Plus Brett Favre Is Honored At Halftime

I'm never thrilled to see the Green Bay Packers play on a short week, so I'm not a fan of them playing on Thursday night. But it is cool that this is the first Thanksgiving game in Green Bay since 1923.

In honor of the ceremony for Brett Favre at halftime, Packers.com has put together a very slick interactive webpage and it's really about time he's been honored. I've been a reluctant to say much about him lately, the dramas in 2008 and 2009 still linger with me, but he's one of the all time greats and should have his number retired.

While it's been a surprisingly good season for the Chicago Bears, and QB Jay Cutler is back to being a good quarterback (he's currently ranked No. 8 this season according to Football Outsiders), the Bears were/are in danger of coming into this Thanksgiving game severely undermanned.

6 #Bears questionable for Thursday: RB Matt Forte, WR Alshon Jeffery, LBs Pernell McPhee & LaRoy Reynolds, S Antrel Rolle & Sherrod Martin.

— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) November 25, 2015

They're already going to miss TE Martellus Bennett and WR Eddie Royal, two players who'd start if they were healthy, and losing Jeffrey and Forte too would take away almost all of Cutler's supporting cast. They survived last week without them (Bennett played but was hurt mid-game) against the Broncos; RB Jeremy Langford had a touchdown and WR Marquess Wilson had a career game. Even if Jeffrey and Forte do play, they'll be hurting and somewhat limited on the field. And I haven't even mentioned that they might be without their best pass rusher; Pernell McPhee.

Unfortunately the Packers aren't in perfect health either. The big problem is the offensive line, where every starting lineman is on the injury report and C Corey Linsley is not going to play. Backup C JC Tretter should be fine in his first career NFL start. Since Tretter was supposed to be the starter last year over Linsley (before Tretter got hurt) it's appropriate that he's getting some recognition, finally.

Maybe none of these injuries matter because Cutler's always been very bad at Lambeau in addition to a 1-13 lifetime record against the Packers, but this has been the year for long losing streaks to be broken (the Lions won for the first time in Wisconsin since 1991). Still I'm not expecting the Bears to win on Thursday and they might not even be competitive if the Packers play like they did last Sunday against the Vikings.

Packers End Three Game Losing Streak With A 30-13 Win in Minnesota and Take First Place Back From Vikings

Well that's the Green Bay Packers I've been used to seeing. Though QB Aaron Rodgers still isn't on the same page as his receivers and he had a completion percentage of under 50% (though his receivers had a couple terrible drops) with a poor yards per attempt of 6.2, but there were three big changes from last week's home loss to the Lions.

His top two targets were WR James Jones and WR Randall Cobb. It wasn't a great game for Cobb outside of his touchdown reception but WR Davante Adams proved against the Lions that he's only a No. 3 WR right now. Adams still had a good game against the Vikings (4 targets, 3 receptions, 36 yards) but he's only a complementary player right now and he appropriately had half as many targets as either Jones or Cobb. Right now the offense works when Rodgers leans on his best receivers and gives them a chance to make a play. Against the Lions, when Jones had zero receptions, that was a big reason why they lost that game. Also, Fear The Hoodie.

Watch all the big plays from today's 30-13 victory over the Vikings! 📺: https://t.co/DQYe6OM8Pd pic.twitter.com/AHNmfd4txo

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 23, 2015

The return of RB Eddie Lacy. I had written off Lacy for the near future (I'm sure I wasn't alone) and he surprised me with a 100 yard game. The running game won't carry them but the offense works a lot better when they're getting something on the ground. It's also his 2nd consecutive 100 yard game in Minnesota, and he ran for 94 yards with a touchdown in the Metrodome during his rookie season, so there's something he likes about playing in Minneapolis.

The defense recorded 6 sacks. The Packers' defense is all about getting pressure on the quarterback, and when the pass rush isn't working, they end up with the bad defensive performances they had in Denver and Charlotte. The defense wasn't unstoppable, QB Teddy Bridgewater was very good when he wasn't running for his life, but they also did a very good job against RB Adrian Peterson (and forced a fumble). Bridgewater can't carry the offense by himself and the Packers did a very good job of taking away his pass protection and his running game.

The game was closer than the score in a lot of respects but the Vikings were flagged for 110 penalty yards and gave up a 70 yard return to WR Jeff Janis. That's a lot of extra yards to overcome.

There were a couple injuries to DB Micah Hyde and C Corey Linsley that weren't talked about after the game, hopefully they aren't serious, and they'll have to bounce back quickly because of the short week before their Thanksgiving game against the Bears.

Packers Lose Third Straight; Embarrassing Loss At Home To 1-7 Lions

The only good news is that the Green Bay Packers have seven more games to figure out what's gone wrong over the past three losses. As bad as it looks now, it wasn't this way four weeks ago. They're certainly capable of making adjustments and getting themselves back on track.

On defense: where's my pass rush? Another week, another zero sack game. They played another shaky offensive line, but they still haven't gotten to the quarterback and it only seems to be getting worse. They've got play makers (Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones) and they have to start making plays.

On offense: it's frustrating because they've scored 28 points combined in their last two fourth quarters but only 10 points combined in the last two first halves. Dropped passes were a problem and QB Aaron Rodgers and his receivers often don't seem to be on the same page. It didn't help that Rodgers's accuracy was off early in the game. But the biggest problems were WR Davante Adams and WR James Jones:

Davante Adams has about 20 targets and has done almost nothing with them. It's unbelievable how Rodgers just keeps trying.

— Frank Schwab (@YahooSchwab) November 15, 2015

Adams ended the game with 21 targets and 79 yards. That's about as inefficient as it gets. Their best receiver this season has been Jones, and he had zero receptions in this game and has only 3 in their last three games. Throwing the ball 21 times to your worst receiver and only twice to your best receiver is not a successful formula. They knew that Adams would be going up against a back-up cornerback and this might have been their attempt to push him into a big game.

The receiver who did step up against the Lions was TE Justin Perillo. I've thought that the best option would be for the Packers to get as many receivers involved in the passing game as possible, to compensate for the loss of WR Jordy Nelson. Rodgers was a combined 16 of 18 for 134 yards and 2 TDs on passes to Perillo, TE Richard Rodgers and RB James Starks. These three receivers aren't getting separation in the passing game against anyone but they're also big receivers and if anyone's great at throwing a receiver open, it's Aaron Rodgers. These bigger guys have to run their route and fight for the ball when it comes to them in tight coverage.

I don't want to make a big deal out of WR Jared Abbrederis's game. It was great that he got his first NFL reception and caught 4 passes for 57 yards, but he also had a fumble out of bounds and suffered a rib injury. If he's having trouble staying healthy and holding onto the ball, he's not going to be a help. WR Randall Cobb had another inefficient game as he continues to struggle as the No. 1 receiver, but they just have to keep him involved and hope he can improve as the entire offense improves.

Also, for the second consecutive game, the interior of the offensive line struggled. Against Carolina, the pass blocking assignments were missed in the first half, and against the Lions, the run blocking assignments were missed. The Lions's defensive tackles were in on nearly every running play right at the line of scrimmage. The running game has vanished in too many games this season and it's putting more strain on the struggling pass offense.

So the answer on offense should be less of Adams and Cobb and more of everyone else. Aaron Rodgers got into the habit last season of leaning heavily on his top two receivers (for good reason, they both had a great season) but that isn't the case anymore. They also should be more aggressive on 4th down, especially on their opponent's side of the 50 yard line. It would help if WR Ty Montgomery would return since he's been their 2nd most efficient receiver (behind James Jones) this season according to Football Outsiders. This is the third week in a row that they came into a game with a plan, and it didn't work. If the players can't execute the plans that have been drawn up, it's time to find some new plans.

Mike Daniels and The Interior Defensive Lineman Have To Start Bringing the Pass Rush Back

This season, when I'm watching the Green Bay Packers defense, I often focus on DE Mike Daniels at the snap. Whether he beats his blocker(s) is a strong indicator whether the defense is going to make a play or not, and over the last couple weeks, I've noticed that he's usually not winning the one-on-one battle against his blocker. I'm not blaming him for the entire defense's struggles over the past three games but the interior pass rush has been part of the problem.

Yes the outside linebackers have struggled, but so have B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels. Raji breaks down the problems: https://t.co/S7uq5ggQMx

— Michael Cohen (@Michael_Cohen13) November 12, 2015

At the link above, NT B.J. Raji tries his best to explain what's gone wrong. He mentions the defensive mentality and playing with his instincts. Maybe he's trying to say that the defense wasn't playing their game and they've let the offense dictate the approach.

It's not been a case of playing against superior opponents either. On the offensive line, the Panthers are pretty good on the interior of their offensive line, led by C Ryan Kalil. On the other hand, the Broncos don't have a very good line (LG Evan Mathis and RG Louis Vasquez are good in run blocking and pass protection, respectively, but neither one is great at both) and the Chargers' offensive line is a borderline disaster.

Maybe it's just a matter of pushing through their mid-season exhaustion and minor injuries. The defense was on the field a ton against the Chargers (Daniels recorded 73 snaps out of 94 played). They did have the bye week right after that game and before they played the Broncos, but it might not have been enough of a break. Having their last two games on the road hasn't helped either.

A lot things have gone wrong for the defense over their last three games but benching ILB Nate Palmer and reviving the inside pass rush might fix the problem. When you watch the Packers host the Lions, keep an eye on Daniels (and DE Datone Jones, when he rotates in on the defensive line) and see if they can get in the face of QB Matthew Stafford as he's trying to throw.

I've Got The Two Game Losing Streak Blues: Packers Lose at Carolina, 37-29

I was expecting a lot better from the Green Bay Packers, who followed up their worst loss of the season (at Denver last week) with their worst half of the season (first half against the Panthers). The Panthers were outplaying them on the offensive and defensive lines. They couldn't get anywhere near QB Cam Newton or protect QB Aaron Rodgers. The secondary couldn't cover and the Packers' receivers weren't getting open.

The good news is that they came out in the second half and played the style of game I'd rather see them play. No more JC Tretter at tight end. Instead they spread out their receivers and started attacking down field. The offensive line still struggled but they weren't allowing free releases on blitzes up the middle anymore. The long touchdown pass to WR Randall Cobb that got them started wasn't anything exotic, a good old wheel route that left the cornerback a step flat footed, but it'd been a while since Rodgers even attempted a pass like that. What was looking like another embarrassing blowout turned into a near comeback.

A look at the final numbers. #GBvsCAR MORE: https://t.co/NcFW1B2QDA pic.twitter.com/wP7imgsLrk

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 8, 2015

There are still problems on offense, especially at tackle, and their conversion rate on 3rd down remains terrible. They had almost as many conversions on 4th down (2) as 3rd (3). The running game didn't help but it was better in their previous two games. WR Davante Adams finally came alive, which helps because spreading out with multiple receivers in the shotgun is their best formation at the moment. It would also help if WR Ty Montgomery could return next week.

As for the defense, their pass rush has vanished over the past three games and it's turned them into one of the worst (if not the worst) defense in the NFL over that time. The secondary will get better once CB Sam Shields returns but they've got to find their pass rush. They rarely made Newton move around in the pocket and they finished the game with no sacks. Their defense goes into funks, especially on the road (remember back to 2014 when they got overwhelmed by the Saints in New Orleans), but it's something they could snap out of quickly.

It's time to dump these last two games down the memory hole. It'll all be a distant memory if they win their next four games, which are all divisional, including two Thursday games. Taking care of the division and winning those four alone will win them the NFC North and put them into the playoffs.

Playing The Panthers on the Road Isn't The Same As The Broncos

At first glance, a road game against Panthers for the Green Bay Packers, one week after getting pummeled by the Broncos on the road, looks like a terrible matchup. The Broncos defense is far and away the best defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders, but the Panthers are ranked No. 2 overall. They have a lot of talented players on defense, highlighted by LB Luke Kuechly and CB Josh Norman, and their offense has played a whole lot better then the Broncos this season. If the Broncos can completely outplay the Packers, so can the Panthers.

On the other hand, facing the Panthers is completely different than facing the Broncos:

#Packers QB Aaron Rodgers asked what's the biggest difference between these Panthers and team they beat last year: "Well, they're 7-0."

— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) November 4, 2015

Last season, the Packers hosted the Panthers and beat them 38-17. Sure the game was at Lambeau and the Packers still had WR Jordy Nelson, but for the most part these are the same two teams and the Packers crushed them. The game wasn't even as close as the score would appear because the Panthers had two late touchdowns (it was 38-3 entering the 4th quarter).

The Panthers haven't exactly played an awesome schedule. Winning at Seattle is impressive and they just beat a 2014 playoff team at home (Colts) but four of their wins have come against teams from two of the worst divisions in football (AFC South, NFC South) and another win was against the Eagles, who don't have a NFL caliber QB. Their defense has taken advantage of playing against teams that feature some of the worst QBs in the NFL (even the Saints game was against Luke McCown). The best QB by far they've faced this season is QB Russell Wilson. The 2nd best QB was Blake Bortles. They haven't been tested much.

The Panthers secondary isn't the same as the Broncos. CB Josh Norman is arguably the best CB in the NFL but the Panthers also feature arguably the worst pair of cover safeties (Kurt Coleman and Roman Harper) of 2015. Harper's more of a linebacker than safety and Coleman is on his 3rd team in 3 years. All these guys aren't maintaining coverage against the Packer receivers for several seconds like the Broncos did last week, and the Panthers' pass rush is struggling (they traded for DE Jared Allen to provide some type of outside pass rush). When QB Aaron Rodgers extends plays because of his pass protection, he's going to find open receivers on Sunday.

The Packers can stop the run if they want to. The Panthers might have the worst group of wide receivers in the NFL, headlined by WR Ted Ginn, who dropped everything he touched in his last game. Even without CB Sam Shields, I don't expect the Packers to give the Panther WRs a ton of respect. The Packers run defense is a lot better if either safety drops down into the box. They also appear willing to bench ILB Nate Palmer mid-game, as he was against the Broncos. If the Panthers struggle with their passing game and don't force the Packers to play two deep safeties, then their offense is going to be in a lot of trouble.

This is still a road game (always tough) and a really good opponent but in no way am I expecting a repeat of last weekend's game vs. the Broncos. The Packers will start looking like the Packers again in Carolina.

All The Packers Must Fix The Offense Articles Are Coming Out After Getting Clobbered By The Broncos

The short answer remains that the Green Bay Packers miss WR Jordy Nelson. By one measure, he accounted for 40% of their passing offense in 2014. So now some good intentioned articles are focusing on how the Packers can improve mid-season without Nelson.

The Packers have problems. What's ailing Aaron Rodgers and the offense, and how it can be fixed. By @Andy_Benoit https://t.co/t2geFndZ5J

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) November 2, 2015

Author Andy Benoit liked it when the Packers brought a wide receiver out of the backfield on short passes. I actually wish the Packers would do that more with RB Eddie Lacy instead of WR Randall Cobb, though Cobb has better hands. There's always the potential for a big play when Lacy has the ball in the open field and he hasn't been nearly productive enough this season in Nelson's absence.

When I initially looked at how the Packers could replace Nelson, I focused on the Packers getting more receivers involved in 2015. That hasn't happened but here's who can step up.

WR Davante Adams. He's missed most of the season with ankle injuries but finally returned against Denver. Unfortunately he did next to nothing in the Broncos game but it was only his first game back. He's got to get better as the season goes on.

WR Ty Montgomery. He's been sparingly used and plays an almost identical role to Cobb but he's also been the 2nd best WR of those who have had fewer than 32 targets this season. An ankle injury kept him out against Denver and he'll be welcomed back.

TE Justin Perillo. Perillo is the preferred No. 2 TE at the moment. The answer might be more receivers out in the formation with fewer blockers, and Perillo could become that forgotten TE in two-TE sets that can take advantage of a linebacker in coverage.

RB Eddie Lacy. He too has been battling an ankle injury but looked like his old self in the Denver game. Hopefully he can finish the season strong.

But maybe nothing will help as much as avoiding negative plays and converting on a higher rate of 3rd downs. Their 3rd down conversion percentage has been slowly sinking all season long, and it bottomed out at 25% against the Broncos. Remember that early drive when Lacy carried it twice from on 2nd and 3rd and short when they didn't pick up the 1st down? They can't afford any negative rushing plays at the moment and have to find plays that work on 3rd and short.

As much as the knee injury to Nelson has been the big story of the season on offense, a lesser story is the trifecta of ankle injuries (Adams, Montgomery, Lacy) that has taken away the three players who combined could replace Nelson's production. It's next man up time for one (or more) of these players to make the offense better for the rest of the season.

Packers Outplayed In Denver: Lose To Broncos, 29-10

Well at least LB Clay Matthews's ankle injury doesn't appear to be serious. That's about the best thing that can be said about this game. Otherwise they were outplayed on both sides of the ball. But still, it's just one game that doesn't hurt them much (except their pride) because it was a road loss, against an AFC team (so no playoff tiebreakers). It reminded me of their Week 1 loss in 2014 against the Seahawks and obviously they bounced back from it. They'll bounce back this season by taking care of the Panthers next week (a game that does have playoff seeding implications in the NFC) and making sure they win all their upcoming divisional games.

@AaronNagler coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for this. It's borderline embarrassing

— Josh Braun (@JBraun1610) November 2, 2015

It was frustrating to watch them get outplayed and outcoached. The defense was more outplayed then outcoached. Denver's offensive line has been a mess this season, but the bye week seemed to help them. They're probably more healthy and they also used recently signed OT Tyler Polumbus (who's generally awful) in an odd offensive line rotation that worked on Sunday night. LB Clay Matthews said they wanted to pressure QB Peyton Manning so he'd have to move around the pocket but Manning had good protection and room to step up. Denver was going to be able to run the ball against the Packers (everyone usually can) so it was going to be a long night once they got their passing game working. Losing CB Sam Shields early certainly didn't help, and a terrible game from CB Casey Hayward showed why they used their top two draft picks in 2015 on cornerbacks.

It's rare to see the Packers outplayed and outcoached on offense but it does happen sometimes (in 2014-at Seattle and at Buffalo). The Packers wanted to run the ball and throw quick passes on shorter routes, but the running game wasn't great and the receivers couldn't get open which QB Aaron Rodgers pointed out in his post game interview. Denver's D has been outstanding this season so there aren't any obvious weaknesses in coverage to attack, and they had a physical coverage plan to attack the Packers' receivers. That aggressive plan also led to a bunch of coverage penalties but it also kept the Packers' offense from getting into a rhythm. Maybe going with deeper routes or more passes to Jones and Adams on the sidelines would have helped but that strategy could have led to more hits on Rodgers.

It's disappointing, but looking at the 2015 schedule, if there was going to be one low point on it, this was going to be that low point. Nothing to do now but to forget about it and start getting ready for the Panthers.

Packers On The Bye Week: Sitting Strong at 6-0

When Football Outsiders recapped the Week 6 games, they specifically mentioned two NFC North teams (Packers over Chargers and Vikings over Chiefs). These were both close, one score victories by two NFC North teams, but according to Football Outsiders's advanced metrics, neither game was as close as the score suggested. The Packers significantly outplayed the Chargers in their win, and the Chiefs significantly outplayed the Vikings in defeat. The Chargers looked better than they were because they ran almost twice as many plays as the Packers (which in itself is a problem) while the Chiefs were hurt by penalties and every big play went against them.

It's too early to say the Packers are guaranteed to win the NFC North, they've only played one divisional game so far, but they're up by three games already and their only significant competition (Vikings at 3-2) are ranked as the 26th best team by Football Outsiders after Week 6. But it's fair to say that they're in great shape to win the division.

The NFC North standings as the #Packers enter the bye week. pic.twitter.com/7ILdK4XRPw

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 20, 2015

One other interesting note on the 2015 season is how it's top heavy. There are five unbeaten teams still remaining but no winless teams and 12 teams with only 2 wins, which means there's a lot of mediocrity. There are only 10 teams with a winning record and 19 teams with a losing record. There are a lot games left to play but there aren't a bunch of teams hot on the Packers' heels either. It gives them some cushion just in case they struggle early next month when they travel for two tough road games (at Denver, at Carolina).

Damarious Randall Comes Up Big: Packers Hold On For 27-20 Win Over Chargers

On one hand it's pretty good to see that when the Green Bay Packers struggle with their pass offense and defense they can still win a game and never trail in it. On the other hand, they weren't slouches either. On a per pass attempt basis, QB Aaron Rodgers's stats were just as good as QB Philip Rivers (though Rivers re-wrote the Chargers' record book on Sunday with new team records for completions, attempts, and yards in a single game) but problems on 3rd downs held them back again. And though the defense struggled a lot, when they needed a big play to close out the game, their rookie CB came up big.

First-round pick Randall makes big play as Packers hold on to beat Chargers http://t.co/oYBHZg5qg7 pic.twitter.com/CzSPc03YXB

— Leader Telegram (@LeaderTelegram) October 19, 2015

I was debating afterwards whether Rivers's pass attempt could have been better, but on replay, it looked like a heck of a pass. He had a tight window at the front of the end zone and he can't throw it high because his receiver is only 5 foot 8. He threw it right where it should have gone but Randall made a great play on the ball.

It was a weird day for the defense. Their troubled run defense shut down the Chargers' ground game even without NT B.J. Raji and SS Morgan Burnett while their fantastic pass rush went missing. The stat line shows 3 sacks and 13 QB pressures, but most of those came late when DC Dom Capers dialed up the blitz as much as he dared. And the Chargers' offensive line had been a wreck for most of the season. Without a pass rush, the Chargers were great at converting on 3rd down (50%) even without a running game and this wasn't the first game the defense has had trouble getting off the field. But they were a surprisingly good bend-but-don't-break defense, which is unusual for them. On the Chargers' last 4 possessions, they ran 38 plays for 209 yards but came away with only 3 points. For as many passing yards as they allowed, to only surrender 20 points is a victory.

Mike McCarthy was asked in the post-game press conference about what happened to RB Eddie Lacy? His answer focused on RB James Starks, who he said deserved some playing time while Lacy's been banged up (though Lacy's not listed on the injury report). Starks proved his coach right and exploded for a big run and his best game in a long while, but keeping Lacy on the bench when the team is lacking play makers (WR Randall Cobb was held to only 2 receptions and he had a big drop) is an odd choice. It worked OK this week since Starks was great and WR Jeff Janis had his first receptions of the season (for big yards) but I'd rather see Lacy play a more prominent role because there's no one else like him on offense.

Getting more from Lacy would also probably help their continued struggles on 3rd down. They were only 3 for 9 on 3rd downs and needed to sustain drives to match what the Chargers are doing. 33% isn't their lowest conversion rate of the season, that came last week against the Rams when they were at 31%, but that hardly makes it better. As much trouble as the defense had getting off the field, the offense struggled to stay on it.

This is probably the best time for their bye week, as they're scheduled to play two currently unbeaten teams on the road to start November (Broncos then Panthers). The injured players can hopefully get better and the coaches can consider some mid-season adjustments.

Packers Defense Is Rolling But What About The Offense?

I've been spoiled by QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense for a while. But for the first time in maybe forever, in the Football Outsiders weekly rankings, the offense (5th overall) is rated lower than the defense (4th overall). Most of this has to do with a much better performance this season by the defense, but last season, the offense was rated No. 1 overall by FO. What's to account for this mini-slump on offense?

#Packers WR Randall Cobb was drawing some extra attention on Sunday. Take a look at the film: http://t.co/kG6L0PJ5HG pic.twitter.com/C5fSiZRu1p

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 14, 2015

The short answer is that the offense is missing WR Jordy Nelson. It's also been missing WR Davante Adams, but the good news is that he's back at practice this week. As good as WR James Jones has been, which isn't his fault because Nelson is one of the best in the NFL, he hasn't been effectively a replacement for Nelson. Jones and rookie WR Ty Montgomery are effectively replacing what was hoped for from Adams. Despite the extra attention above, Cobb's basically been the same as last season, though a few more passes have falling incomplete to him.

His absence has also hurt the ground game, probably because the opponent's safety is less worried about deep coverage without Nelson around and more interested in RB Eddie Lacy. The run game wasn't helped when RT Bryan Bulaga missed a few games either. Lacy's yards per carry are significantly down this season (4.6 in 2014 vs. 4.1 in 2015) and it's even worse for RB James Starks (3.9 in 2014 vs. 3.3 in 2015). With the run offense struggling, it's getting harder to convert on 3rd down. Here's how they've done through the first five games:

	Team	3rd Down %	Points Scored
Week 1	Bears	60%	31
Week 2	Seattle	36%	27
Week 3	Chiefs	36%	38
Week 4	Niners	33%	17
Week 5	Rams	31%	24

The offense has scored 17 points in their last two games, and the 3rd down conversion percentage is trending downward with each passing game. The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and that Week 1 conversion rate on 3rd down is looking more like the exception not the rule. The Packers converted for a 1st down on 47.2% of their 3rd downs in 2014 vs. 38.3% overall in 2015, so many drives that kept going last season are ending up with a change of possession.

Unfortunately there's no easy answer to get the offense back to how it was in 2014. Bulaga is back, which can only help since he's much better than Don Barclay, and Adams will eventually recover from his high ankle sprain. Montgomery should continue to improve during his rookie season. But the only player who can really take them to the next level is Nelson. So the best offense in the NFL might just have to settle for being No. 5 overall this season.

Packers Sack, Intercept The Rams: 24-10

It was the second consecutive lackluster performance for the Green Bay Packers offense, but it was the second outstanding game for the defense (at least against the pass). Somewhere QB Nick Foles is still having nightmares:

.@ClayMatthews52 coming through! #SACK #STLvsGB pic.twitter.com/CpLiCi3dM0

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 11, 2015

The pressure on Foles was relentless, mostly from LB Clay Matthews, LB Julius Peppers, and DE Datone Jones. The coverage was good too, notably from CB Sam Shields, but the pressure was so bad that Foles couldn't get anything going. In his first 4 games this season, he had 1 INT but he had 4 INTs against the Packers.

The run defense gave up a ton of yards to RB Todd Gurley, but his offensive line was run blocking better than they were pass blocking and the Packers usually allow an extra DB to play instead of a run stuffing LB/DE. When Gurley got into the open field, he did look a lot like RB Adrian Peterson but for Gurley it's more about his speed than his power. He was lethal in the open field and the Packers run defense isn't, which was a bad combination. But the Rams' complete inability to throw the ball wasted his effort.

The big story was that QB Aaron Rodgers threw an INT for the first time since 2012 at Lambeau. The first one was tipped at the line and LB James Laurinaitis made a great diving grab. The second INT looked trapped and probably wasn't intercepted. He was also stripped sack when DE Robert Quinn (one of the best edge rushers in the NFL) beat LT David Bakhtiari off the edge. It counts as three turnovers but they weren't bone headed plays; they were great plays by the Rams. He still led them on three scoring drives and took advantage of some bad/blown coverage on long TD passes to WR James Jones and WR Ty Montgomery.

The Rams' run defense has been very good this season, and the Packers didn't have much success on the ground against them. Their lack of run success probably played a factor in their lousy conversion rate on 3rd downs (31%) for the second week in a row.

There were a couple injuries to NT B.J. Raji, RG T.J. Lang, and LB Nick Perry. Lang said his was "nothing serious" but it's not clear how bad it was for Raji and Perry.

The Packers have one more game next week (hosting the Chargers) before their bye week. QB Philip Rivers might be the best QB they're scheduled to face this season but he's got issues behind an injured offense line, which might be a huge problem for him against the Packers' fearsome pass rush.

Packers Hosting St. Louis' Pass Rushers On Sunday: Bryan Bulaga Is Back Just In Time

As it was explained to me by a colleague earlier today, the Rams only play well against NFC West teams but they're terrible against everyone else and I shouldn't worry about them in Lambeau against the Packers.

However the Rams do have a fantastic pass rush and the Packers have struggled protecting QB Aaron Rodgers. But one of their best lineman will be returning from injury just in time.

Bryan Bulaga: "If I feel good, I'm going to play." #STLvsGB Read more: http://t.co/SKiQWXPcba pic.twitter.com/R1VPrpXzcs

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 9, 2015

Depending on the game, Bulaga's replacement, RT Don Barclay, has varied from OK to horrible. There really is no comparison, and Bulaga is significantly better.

There will be a few notable Packers missing: WR Davante Adams is still out with a high ankle sprain, and SS Morgan Burnett with a calf injury. Both are listed as questionable, but the fact that neither one practiced on Friday is bad sign. The offense has continued to play well without Adams as Jones and Montgomery have stepped up in his absence. But the run defense has really struggled except when they're bringing an extra safety down into the box, which they can get away with against QB Colin Kaepernick, but not against QB Nick Foles, who has a good deep ball. Burnett was strong against the run last season and he's been missed so far in 2015.

He's struggled in limited snaps, but it was also reported that SS Sean Richardson suffered a serious neck injury. I had forgotten about the serious neck injury he suffered in 2012, and that was one I didn't think he come back from. This one might end his career.

The Packers favored by 9 points, and the Rams might be without a couple of notable players: LB Alec Ogletree and WR Kenny Britt. Those might not seem like the biggest names ever, but Ogletree enters this game as their leading tackler and Britt as their leading receiver in yards. Ogletree is definitely out, though Britt is expected to play through his injured knee.

Week 4 QB Rankings: Aaron Rodgers Is Near The Top

After the Pro Football Focus article that gave QB Aaron Rodgers a negative score for throwing for 5 TDs and 0 INTs against the Chiefs, I wanted to look at how quarterback performance matches up with a team's record. They can write about the plays that are expected or plays the other team should make, but a negative shouldn't be taken from a positive. I'm not big on intangibles, but they are part of the game and players have to make plays. Some do, some don't.

There are 6 teams without a loss after 4 games, and as you might expect, most of those teams' without a loss are getting great play from their quarterbacks.

	Week 4	QBR	2015	QBR	FO
		2015	Losses	2014	Rk
1	Roethlisberger	91.3	2	72.1	6
2	Dalton	87.7	0	53.9	2
3	Rodgers	87.3	0	77.4	4
4	Brady	83.1	0	74.6	1
5	Ryan	81.4	0	71.0	5
6	Palmer	80.3	1	67.7	3
9	Bridgewater	65.1	2	56.9	29
15	Cutler	58.2	3	52.8	16
25	Stafford	50.3	4	53.5	19

The two exceptions are Carolina and Denver, who are winning despite mediocre QB play from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. They're undefeated because of their great defenses and some help from the schedule makers.

The point is that Rodgers is just above or just below of three other undefeated QBs (Dalton, Brady, Ryan) which is right where he should be.

Former Packers head coach Lindy Infante Has Died

For those of you who don't remember (refuse to remember) the bleak era of the late 1980s, Lindy Infante was the coach who gave all of us Green Bay Packer fans a glimmer of hope with an unlikely 10-6 record in 1989 (though no playoff berth).

Blog: Former #Gators player, assistant coach Lindy Infante dies; 1989 #NFL Coach of Year: http://t.co/VxClBagPTx pic.twitter.com/7eajxyKDRo

— Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) October 8, 2015

Unfortunately he couldn't build on that surprising 1989 season and GM Ron Wolf fired him in December 1991. Wolf then hired HC Mike Holmgren, traded for QB Brett Favre, and shocked the NFL world by luring free agent DE Reggie White to Green Bay, but Infante's contributions weren't part of the turnaround.

The best I can recall from Wolf's The Packer Way book, he wasn't too impressed with Infante's team in 1991 while Infante believed his players were just the victim of unfortunate events. Infante really believed in his players (to his determent) and Wolf knew it was time to clean house (with a couple exceptions, such as WR Sterling Sharpe and LT Ken Ruettgers). But I'll always remember that 1989 season.

The Defense Shuts Them Down: Packers Defeat 49ers, 17-3

It was a historic performance for the Green Bay Packers defense who held the 49ers to their worst offensive performance since 1963 or 1964. As the game went on, the Packer fans in attendance took over and flipped the home field advantage.

Packers fans turned Levi's Stadium into Lambeau Field in the second half. http://t.co/9mI0xIblTU https://t.co/Vfjyz3xyo0

— SB Nation (@SBNation) October 4, 2015

Why was the defense so good? RB Carlos Hyde couldn't run the ball, the run defense was all over him on every carry, and QB Colin Kaepernick has no accuracy downfield. At first, he wouldn't throw the ball deep, but when he finally did start going deep, he usually threw it out of bounds. He connected on one long pass to WR Torrey Smith but that was the exception. In the first half, Kaepernick had some success on designed cut back runs, but in the second half, FS HaHa Clinton-Dix went into the box to shut it all down. There were times in the third quarter when it looked like the Packers were playing with a single deep safety, sometimes it looked like it was only 4th stringer S Chris Banjo deep, but the 49ers still couldn't take advantage of it.

With so many defenders playing near the line, and LBs Nick Perry and Jayrone Elliott adding extra pressure along with the usual suspects (Matthews, Peppers, Daniels, etc.), they overwhelmed the 49ers' underwhelming offensive line.

I'd love to write that the Packers D has stepped up, but this was more about how far Kaepernick has fallen. When the announcers start talking about how much the coaches love QB Blaine Gabbert, it's a big problem. Until Kaepernick re-discovers his accuracy, he's not a starting NFL QB.

The offense struggled and QB Aaron Rodgers was frustrated in the first half. He admitted that they were off today. It looked like all the injuries finally caught up to them. Some of the receivers didn't seem on the same page, and that probably doesn't happen if Nelson, Adams and Quarless were playing instead of Montgomery, Janis and Backman.

But no starter was missed as much as RT Bryan Bulaga. I was OK with RT Don Barclay allowing pressure as long as he didn't allow hits or sacks. However, in this game, he gave up a couple hits and sacks in addition to all the usual pressures. That allowed 49ers LB Aaron Smith to get to know Rodgers up close and personal. I doubt the coaches will make a change at this point because Bulaga should be healthy in three weeks, and then Barclay can go back to the bench.

Another problem on offense was their 3rd down conversion rate (5 for 15) which is usually around 40 to 50 percent. They were 3 for 4 on 3rd downs in the 3rd quarter, and that's the quarter in which the offense score 10 points on consecutive drives. The reasons listed above ("off today" and Barclay) caused most of the problems, but penalties were also a semi-problem. LG Josh Sitton never commits penalties and he had two holding penalties on Sunday. Barclay will still be a problem in the near future, but otherwise the offense should be much improved by returning home to Lambeau for next week's game.

It wasn't the most impressive win, but winning on the road is never easy, and they've opened up a two game lead over their next closest NFC North rival.