2018 Week 2: Packers Host The Vikings, Ends in 29-29 Tie

I'm really OK with this tie. It's not a loss (really, that can matter in tie-breakers) and the Vikings are a really good team who could have easily won if their kicker hadn't missed three field goals (they should bring back Ryan Longwell). Of course, the Packers could have won if this hadn't been called a penalty.

Do not hit quarterbacks high. Do not hit quarterbacks low. Do not hit them in the midriff. Roughing the passer on Clay Matthews. pic.twitter.com/pFyMnXxqxG

— Ollie Connolly (@OllieConnolly) September 16, 2018

I get it, it's not an illegal hit, but they didn't lose the game because of this call. They had other chances to win.

I was really disappointed in Mike McCarthy. The Packers were in 3rd and long too many times and ran the ball about half as many times as they threw it. Ty Montgomery was really effective as a runner, averaging over 6 yards per carry, but he only had 5 attempts. Also the play calling, after Clinton-Dix intercepted Kirk Cousins with just over 2 minutes to go. They probably couldn't have run for a first down but they could have made the Vikings use all their time outs before the Packers kicked a field goal. I guess he wanted to put the game away with a first down, or a touchdown, and his defense was probably on fumes in the heat, but he has to put that pressure on the Vikings (make them use all their timeouts) and make their final drive as difficult as possible.

It wasn't a great game for Mike Pettine either, though it's a lot to ask of him to know everything about his players in only his 2nd game with the Packers. When Kevin King went down with a groin injury, replacing him on with Davon House over Josh Jackson looks like a big mistake in hindsight (he probably won't do that again). Also, giving Kyler Fackrell meaningful defensive snaps isn't going to work, but he only has so many outside linebackers on the roster to work with.

While I understand why both coaches did what they did, neither of them pushed the right buttons with those critical decisions. I don't have anything to say against any of the players, they played as well as I would expect. I'm sure Aaron Rodgers would have loved a due over on that two play sequence in the middle of OT when at the Minnesota 37 yard line he fumbled a hand-off attempt (play action? I'm not sure what he wanted to do there) and then a sack to move them out of field goal range, but I'm not saying anything critical of him while trying to play on one leg.

It's disappointing but it's not a disaster either. The next three games could be an interesting run, next week against the Redskins (who didn't look good against the Colts) and then back-to-back games against two of the weaker teams so far this season (Lions and Bills). Just focus on the next game and work on staying out of the loss column.

Vincent Verhei on The Packers and the 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac

Vincent Verhei (@FO_VVerhei) wrote the chapters on the NFC North for the always excellent 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac. The chapter on the Green Bay Packers focused on two interesting points. The Packer defense has been coordinated by Dom Capers since 2009 using a similar scheme and concepts in each of those years, but the Packers' defense has been widely variable in those years, from really good (2009, 2010) to really bad (2011, 2013) and places in between (2012, 2014-2015). Also, the wide receivers last season, as a group, for the Packers were really bad to mediocre without Jordy Nelson. I asked him a couple questions about how the Packers compare to the rest of the NFC North and whether there's any hope for Davante Adams.

FINALLY. The Kindle edition of FOA 2016 is available for $17.99. https://t.co/I7Vsa4Nant

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) August 26, 2016

"You wrote the chapters on all the NFC North teams so what would you say is the one advantage and one disadvantage the Packers have compared to the rest of the conference?"
Well, the first question is easy: the Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and for sure the best in the division. Chicago's Jay Cutler and Detroit's Matt Stafford are both pretty average starters, though Stafford has more upside considering he's still only 28. The consensus Football Outsiders opinion on Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater is that he has a very bright long-term future, but we're still skeptical about his targets in the passing game in 2015.

And the second question is just as easy: inside linebacker. While the Bears have added Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, Detroit is getting back a healthy DeAndre Levy, and Minnesota has
up-and-comer Eric Kendricks, the Packers are trying to keep their heads above water with a collection of low-round draft picks and undrafted players who nobody else wanted. I know the Packers are high on fourth-rounder Blake Martinez, but if he were likely to step in and make a big impact he wouldn't have lasted to the 131st pick.

"You wrote about the high year-to-year variance from Dom Capers's defenses and the pass defense was pretty good last season (-6.8%, ranked 6th best) so is there something (or some player) to watch for as a sign that they've regressed this season? Or am I being too pessimistic and should be looking for a player to emerge this season that could turn their defense into one of the best?"
I guess the single biggest concern going into 2016 would be the pass rush. Julius Peppers is 37 this year, while Clay Matthews is 31 and might wind up playing inside a lot again. Nobody else on the team had more than four sacks last year. Capers blitzes a lot, so they should be able to generate some pressure regardless, but without a dominant one-on-one edge rusher those blitzes will be much easier to pick up.

"Is there any hope for Davante Adams this season? The player analysis in the Wide Receivers section was absolutely brutal. And it was absolutely right; he was terrible and I've never seen a wide receiver play so badly with Aaron Rodgers, at least one with so many targets. Thinking historically, is there a wide receiver you could compare to him to that played as badly as Adams played last season who went on to have at least a good career?"
I checked our Similarity Scores for wide receivers who put up similar numbers to Adams in the first two years of their careers and found a surprising number of guys who turned out OK. Bobby Engram topped 900 yards in his third and fourth seasons, and finally went over 1,000 at age 34 in Seattle. Pittsburgh's Charles Johnson went over a thousand yards in his third year. Cincinnati's Carl Pickens topped a thousand yards four times in five seasons starting in Year 3.

Of course, all of those players started their careers in the 1990s, when numbers were very different. More recent wideouts similar to Adams include long list of first-round busts: Bryant Johnson, Josh Reed, Troy Williamson, Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Cordarrelle Patterson.

So two seasons in, the best-case scenario for Adams appears to be "productive complementary wideout," and the worst-case scenario is …well, more seasons like 2015.

Did The Packers Do Enough This Offseason: Front Seven

It's been weeks since I've posted anything about the Green Bay Packers and I've been meaning to finish my look back at the 2016 offseason.

A couple of @UCLAFootball products. pic.twitter.com/WQFeqSd2ag

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) June 14, 2016

Rookie DT Kenny Clark and 4th year DE/LB Datone Jones are going to be two of the new faces to watch in 2016; Clark because he's a rookie and Jones because I expect he'll take over the elephant rusher role from LB Mike Neal.

Here are the 2015 snap counts from the returning defensive linemen and it's a short list:

Player	Pos.	Def. Snap	Def. %
Daniels	DT	706	67.2%
Guion	DT	330	31.4%
Pennel	DT	287	27.3%

The big departure is DT B.J. Raji, who played on 444 defensive snaps in 2015, but it's safe to assume that Clark can step into that role. Other than Daniels, the most notable thing about Guion and Pennel, and the two rookies (Clark and DE Dean Lowry) plus 2nd year DT Christian Ringo, is that none of them are known for their pass rush. The rush defense was ranked only 19th overall last season by Football Outsiders, but the Packers didn't do a whole lot to shake up their expected 2016 tackle rotation.

If the Packers were intending to improve their pass rush and the run defense, it doesn't look like the focus for the improvement was going to come from the trenches. Other than Clark taking over for Raji, and some combination of Guion, Ringo and Lowry filling in for Pennel while he serves his four game suspension, there aren't a lot of changes here, and no obvious improvements.

The big move was that Clay Matthews will be back outside. While he's good on the inside, he's clearly better, bigger play maker, on the outside. Moving their best defensive player back to his best position only makes sense.

Here's the 2015 snap counts for the returning linebackers:

Player	Pos.	Def. Snap	Def. %
Matthews	OLB	1020	97.1%
Peppers	OLB	706	67.2%
Jones	OLB	364	34.6%
Perry	OLB	351	33.4%
Ryan	ILB	260	24.7%
Thomas	ILB	250	23.8%
Elliott	OLB	174	16.6%

Matthews didn't leave the field in 2015 and nothing should change in that regard next season, though it's unclear what's going to happen with the Al Jazeera report. OLB Julius Peppers arguably played too much last season and as good as he was in 2015, he might be even better in a lesser role. Jones didn't play much (if any) linebacker last season but I've included him here, as he'll be asked to take over at least part of the 734 snaps that went to Neal last season. Maybe they plan on a bigger role for OLB Nick Perry too, but his re-signing just seemed like a value free agent pick-up. Everyone should expect a bigger role from ILB Jake Ryan in his 2nd season, and ILB Joe Thomas might still find himself a role on passing downs in a platoon with Ryan.

In addition to Neal's departure, the Packers also have to replace the 539 snaps that went to ILB Nate Palmer, however, those should go to ILB Sam Barrington, who appears to be set for a full recovery from a 2015 season ending foot injury. I'm not expecting much from 4th round rookie ILB Blake Martinez in 2016 but he should be a better option for depth than what they had to replace Barrington last season.

3rd round rookie OLB Kyler Fackrell isn't needed immediately and appears in line for a redshirt NFL rookie season, but OLB Jayrone Elliott didn't provide much in a limited role and might be only a preseason performer. While there's no guarantee he'll make the roster either, free agent LB Lerentee McCray should get a chance to earn playing time, if he can.

Though there are several new faces, this isn't a major change for the defense. Overall the defense was ranked No. 9 overall by Football Outsiders, so the step of moving Matthews back to his best position, and removing two of their worst regulars (Neal and Palmer) from the rotation might be all that they need for a unit that can compete for a Top 5 ranking next season.

Recapping The Packers 2016 Free Agent Period

The NFL free agent period is rarely an exciting time for GM Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers, and 2016 has been no exception. Extending DT Mike Daniels was the most important task they could have accomplished, and they did it back in 2015, but I'm still left more disappointed than usual. There were some notable free agent departures and they'll be looking to find replacements, and depth, at those positions in April's draft.

Mike McCarthy confirmed the Packers are moving on from WR James Jones. He praised him for being "such a class... https://t.co/Z6qumLVpIV

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 22, 2016

WR James Jones. Maybe Jones's agent was talking about a $4 million per season Jermaine Kearse type contract, which I would never expect them (nor should they) agree to. But Jones signed for under $1 million twice last season (first with the Giants and then the Packers) so he's probably not looking for a big deal. He finished 2015 as the 20th best receiver in the NFL according to Football Outsiders and he was the team's best receiver by a mile, so asking him to return in 2016 as a $1 million insurance policy looked like a no-brainer, even if he loses the battle in camp this summer to WR Jeff Janis and/or Jared Abbrederis. Yes, WR Jordy Nelson will be back, Janis and Abbrederis should continue to improve, and Jones might not have been necessary. But he was absolutely necessary in 2015 and he wouldn't have broken the bank. I'm also not mentioning WR Davante Adams, who the team appears to have faith in, though I don't. I'd have made re-signing Jones a priority if he's still available in the $1 million range.

DTs B.J. Raji, Letroy Guion, and Mike Pennel. Pennel wasn't a free agent but his upcoming four game suspension should factor into their 2016 plans. But I don't think they expected Raji to walk away from football. Mike McCarthy thinks Raji will return some day but I'm less sure about it because football doesn't seem to be the most important thing in his life. Good for him, but that won't help the Packers much in 2016. That leaves the middle of their line anchored by Guion and Daniels, and a couple other guys who've never played meaningful NFL snaps. DT Josh Boyd will also return, but he was never very good and he's now coming off a season ending injury. I'm worried that some teams will be able to run right over the defense next season.

LB Mike Neal. The Packers want to move LB Clay Matthews back outside next season and they did re-sign LB Nick Perry, so this seems like a good time to let Neal find another NFL home. I've never been his biggest fan so I'm glad they're looking to find someone better than him. But he was 5th on the team with 734 defensive snaps last season so they have to replace him with somebody, and I have no idea who that somebody will be. LB Sam Barrington will return but you never know what a player is like after a season ending injury. LBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas should continue to improve while platooning as a run stuffing and pass covering inside linebacker combo. Also, former disappointments LB Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford remain on the roster. The Packers have a lot of draft choices in the upcoming draft and they're sure to draft at least one linebacker, but they haven't had the best track record of developing inside linebackers. The loss of Raji and Pennel up front, along with Matthews moving back outside from inside, has left the middle of their defense looking like a giant question mark heading into 2016.

CB Casey Hayward. The Packers really didn't need Hayward anymore. The Chargers are paying him $5 million per season starting in 2016 and he might have been challenged for playing time with the Packers by CB Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Also, former 5th round pick CB Demetri Goodson is in the mix. But letting a solid player like Hayward go for only a future 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick seems like a poor value. Hayward is a good player now, and that future draft choice is only maybe a good player someday. They've given up something without getting enough back, while at the same time the defense is taking a step back at tackle and inside linebacker.

I'm just not feeling the power of young players when a few of them disappointed last season at key positions like receiver and linebacker. That's the way the Packers work and free agency isn't the answer for most teams, but it's still left me underwhelmed with their offseason plans while I wait for them to re-load in the upcoming draft.

Packers Lose Starting Linebacker Sam Barrington For The Season

LB Sam Barrington is not my favorite player, he had a huge negative grade from Pro Football Focus in 2014 and a slightly negative grade on his only 16 snaps of 2015, but it never helps to lose a starter for the season.

"Different schemes, different players" will replace Sam Barrington. More from Coach McCarthy: http://t.co/B6C5ATnrnM pic.twitter.com/OrZ2uZDfn5

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 16, 2015

The Packers have already previewed their defense without Barrington. They played most of the Bears game without him, and the different schemes involved a lot of Nate Palmer and Clay Matthews. They were the only other inside linebackers who played last week. LB Jayrone Elliott unexpectedly received some playing time, but maybe that was because LB Nick Perry was stinking up the joint (his negative 4.3 grade from PFF was the worst of any defender last Sunday) and he wasn't playing just so Matthews could spend more time inside.

It's going to be a rocky ride for Palmer, who's new to the inside backer position, still playing with a splint on his injured hand, and now has to wear the speaker helmet for the coaches instructions on the field. Maybe with an extra week to prepare, they'll plan on working rookie Jake Ryan into the defense, though he didn't take the field against the Bears (except on special teams). Without a lot of depth on the inside, the loss of Barrington might become a big problem if Palmer struggles with his role on defense.

Packers Start 2015 1-0: Defeat Bears 31-23

The big story was obviously WR James Jones, who looked like he never left Green Bay. He signed early this week after being released by the New York Giants, and caught two touchdowns with a 3rd that was taken away by a penalty.

James Jones is back. #GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/yA8VzSrKx5

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 13, 2015

Technically the Packers had 30 run plays to only 23 pass attempts, but 8 of those rushes were by QB Aaron Rodgers and one was a lateral to TE Richard Rodgers after the pass protection broke down. So the Packers are keeping their pass heavy ways even though Tom Clements is technically calling the plays now instead of Mike McCarthy. Rodgers still calls a lot of the plays himself, so some things won't change, and again it was a nearly flawless game from Rodgers with a QBR of 94.4, 3 touchdowns and no turnovers. He even looked good when running, though I hope he does less of it as the season goes on.

Only five receivers were targeted, which surprised me because I was expecting the Packers would rely on many receivers to overcome the preseason loss of WR Jordy Nelson. All those targets that would have gone to Nelson last season have to go somewhere. Instead, they got a break when the Giants released Jones. I wasn't sure he would actually move ahead of WR Ty Montgomery, but it doesn't look like JJ's forgotten any of the offense, while I'm sure Montgomery is still learning it. Though Montgomery did make his mark with a big kickoff return.

Oh, CB Sam Shields. The Bears saw something they liked, and almost every running play and crossing route went to Shields's side of the field. He's great in single coverage down the sidelines, he knocked a touchdown pass away from WR Alshon Jeffrey in the end zone, but he struggled with nearly every open field tackle that came his way. It'll be something to watch as the season goes on, and the absence of starting S Morgan Burnett might have made the situation worse.

LB Clay Matthews is still a beast. He ran across the field to tackle a running back from behind on one play, and on the game clinching INT he ran from left to right tackle to make the interception. He didn't have a huge impact as a pass rusher, it was LB Julius Peppers's day in that department, but as long as Matthews's is healthy and still running at full speed, it's only a matter of time until the sacks come.

LB Nate Palmer in pass coverage. As you might expect, there's been some rough patches watching Palmer, a former college defensive end, adapt to life as a pass covering inside linebacker in the NFL. And he's coming off a lost season, and played the entire preseason with a giant club on his injured hand. The Packers lost LB Sam Barrington mid-game with an ankle injury, and though Barrington's no great shakes in pass coverage either, he's still probably better than Palmer.

As much as they struggled with RB Matt Forte on defense, they once again had no problem with QB Jay Cutler (who always seems to play his worst against the Packers) and the offense hummed along with the addition of Jones. Next week they host the Seahawks, who are looking for answers after their upset loss to the Rams, in arguably the biggest regular season game of the season.

The First Week of Packers Training Camp Is In The Books

Though the Green Bay Packers started training camp last week, I haven't been too interested in who's playing in the first few practices of the season. It'll be the preseason games that really matter. But early season injuries are a big deal and several players were held out of practice to start the second week.

#Packers DNPs: Clay Matthews Adrian Coxson Ricky Collins John Crockett Matt Rotheram Jared Abbrederis Mike Neal Returned: Quinten Rollins

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) August 3, 2015

Only four names really need to be discussed.

LB Clay Matthews had been practicing but he was held out for the first practice this week due to "knee soreness" and I don't think it's a big deal. Matthews said he's "just taking care of my body" and they probably don't want him to overdue it. Plus it's more practice time inside for LB Nate Palmer, who's coming off a lost 2014 season due to injury and changing positions.

WR Jared Abbrederis. I thought he would need a strong 2015 camp to bounce back from a lost 2014 season (knee injury) and that hasn't worked out for him so far. I'm a little worried about this concussion, he insisted that he's only had one concussion in college, but that could potentially be more of a problem than a bad knee. There is a lot of competition at receiver but he still has the preseason games to prove his worth.

LB Mike Neal. He's coming off a terrible 2014 season, and it's not clear when he'll be returning from offseason hernia surgery. They have some depth outside at linebacker in the meantime.

CB Quinten Rollins. Their 2nd round pick was held out for the first week with a hamstring injury. His absence gave more screen time to undrafted rookie CB LaDarius Gunter and he looks like a keeper, which isn't a problem since they have to replace the three cornerbacks they lost in free agency. Also, the news that CB Casey Hayward had foot surgery this offseason gives me some concern about his long-term future, which potentially makes Rollins even more important.

Matthews open to playing ILB in 2015

Packers linebacker Clay Matthews certainly seemed to do well when playing inside this season, and the veteran says he's open to trying it again in 2015.

Here's his full quote, courtesy of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Tom Silverstein:

"I really enjoyed it. I enjoyed the change. At the same time, I'm very good at getting after the quarterback off the edge, so I think there's a fine line. So, we'll see. Week in and week out you never knew if I was going to be there 100% of the snaps or only 10. We'll see what that means moving forward."

Matthews fined $22K for block on Wilson

Packers LB Clay Matthews has been fined $22,050 for his hit on Russell Wilson in last week's NFC Championship Game, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. 

Coming after Wilson had a pass intercepted by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in the second quarter, Matthews blocked Wilson pretty aggressively, and the league has apparently thought it was excessive. 

The knock has been labeled a cheap shot by some, but Matthews doesn't think so.

"I was just blocking whoever and it turned out to be the quarterback and obviously calls are going to go in their direction whether it was a blind-side hit or whatever," he told Rob Demovsky. "I'm just looking to pick up a block and unfortunately that's just how the game played out."

Matthews Named NFC Defensive Player of the Week

Packers LB Clay Matthews has been named Week 16's NFC Defensive Player of the Week, ESPN Wisconsin's Jason Wilde reports. 

Matthews recorded 2.5 sacks in Sunday's 20-3 win over the Buccaneers, giving him 10 on the season. Of that total, 5.5 have come in the last three weeks alone, leading some to consider this year to be the best of his career. 

And that's apparently a belief at least somewhat shared by the fans, who selected Matthews to his fifth Pro Bowl Tuesday. Indeed, this week's definitely been a good one for Matthews, whose Packers will battle the Lions Sunday for the NFC North crown. 

Five Packers Make NFC Pro Bowl Team

Five Packers players have been named to this year's NFC Pro Bowl team, ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reports.

QB Aaron Rodgers, who ranked number one overall among the fan balloting, will return to Hawaii for the fourth time, accompanied by FB John Kuhn (second selection), WR Jordy Nelson (first selection) and G Josh Sitton (second selection) on the offensive side of the ball.

As for Green Bay's defense, it willl be represented by LB Clay Matthews (fifth selection), who has 10 sacks this season. 

WR Randall Cobb is considered by snubb by Demovsky, having not been selected in favor of Cincinnati's A.J. Green. 

Cobb: Packers and I May Negotiate New Contract During Season

While it's been the popular opinion all year that the Packers and Randall Cobb won't negotiate an extention until the season ends, the latter has come out and said otherwise.

"I think that [the Packers and my agent] could have conversations right now," Cobb recently told Cheesehead TV. "That's on them. That's the business side. He can handle all that. I've told him, hopefully things work out for the best, and I would love to stay here next year and be a part of this organization. But it's a business, and I understand that, and it works both ways. At the end of the day, (I) just have to make the decision that I feel is best for me, and the team is going make the decision that they feel is best for the team."

Cobb is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, but considering the way the Packers have treated Aaron Rodgers, Clay Mattews, and Jordy Nelson recently, it seems unlikely he'll leave them. 

Let's hope that observation is right.

The Ongoing Musical Chairs At Linebacker

The linebacker core is the one unit that always seems to be undergoing some sort of shuffle. While Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews have excelled this season, it's been terrible times for Brad Jones, Mike Neal and A.J. Hawk.

Top photos from Sunday's #Packers win: http://t.co/YLxg3qvMq9 pic.twitter.com/ZD6nlgNeiB
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 24, 2014

In my recap of the win over the Vikings, I wrote that it was a quiet game for Matthews, who seemed a step slow as he played and practices through a groin injury. It looks like he's feeling better now, but in case his groin injury remains a problem, they'll need DE Mike Daniels and Peppers to make plays against the Patriots.

According to the ESPN playing time breakdown, rookie Jayrone Elliott was given some meaningful snaps for only the second time this season, without making much of an impact one way or another. Unfortunately he was only taking away snaps from Matthews outside, as Neal played as many snaps (59) as he's played in any game this season and received his worst game grade of the season from Pro Football Focus. Hopefully Nick Perry feels better this week and can take away snaps from Neal.

It was interesting that Brad Jones played his first meaningful snaps (13) on defense since a terrible performance against the Dolphins a few weeks ago. Against the Vikings, he received a slight positive grade from Pro Football Focus, which is a massive improvement for him. I'm not expecting too much from Hawk, but he's looking slow in coverage against the tight end, and it's forced them to reconsider Jones, who has the potential to be their best linebacker in coverage though he's been awful this season. The Patriots rely heavily on their tight ends and the Vikings game might be a prelude to a bigger role for Jones next week.

Matthews: I'll Play Without Limitations Sunday

Packers LB Clay Matthews said that the groin injury that's limited him in practice this week shouldn't affect his involvement Sunday.

"I was a little sore after the game in regards to the injury with my groin and everything," Matthews told The Green Bay Press-Gazette today. "I was able to do a lot more today than I was yesterday and obviously we don't work on Friday, that's our rehab day. I feel good. So, I don't think there were will be any limitations going into this weekend."

Hopefully that statement is true, as Matthews has collected 13 tackles and two sacks in the team's last two games. He's also recorded three assists, helping the Packers stay undefeated at home.

Eagles/Packers Final Prediction

My final prediction for tomorrow's Packers/Eagles game:

Score: Packers 31, Eagles 21

I've liked Mark Sanchez' play in recent weeks, but since the contest's still at Lambeau I just can't see his team winning. I think they'll make it close, but in the end, the Packers will end up emerging victorious for the second week in a row. 

Why?

Because Aaron Rodgers has been great lately and the defense has shown a lot of improvement. I expect Clay Matthews to record at least one sack, and for Green Bay to intercept at least one pass. Again, this one'll be close, but I just can't see the Packers suddenly losing on their home field.

Leave your thoughts below on how accurate you think mine are.

Jordy Nelson Is Number One, But Spreading The Ball Around Has Made The Packers Offense Better

Sam Monson has written the definitive post about the Green Bay Packers first game with Clay Matthews at inside linebacker (don't call him an inside linebacker!) and should be read by anyone interested in his new position/role on defense.

Another interesting point raised this week was that QB Aaron Rodgers threw two of his six touchdown passes against the Bears to tight ends, which doubled the number of touchdown passes thrown to tight ends this season. He has been throwing more passes in general to TEs Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers in recent weeks and he's been spreading the ball around to the benefit of the offense.

Below are the number of targets to their top receivers so far this season, pro-rated out to 16 games in the next column, and compared to the number of times each player was targeted in 2013.

Receiver	2014 Targets	2014 Projected	2013 Targets
Nelson	84	149	126
Cobb	60	107	46
Lacy	30	53	44
Adams	37	66	0
Quarless	27	48	54
Richard Rodgers	14	25	0
Jones	0	0	93
Boykin	8	14	82
Finley	0	0	34

One interesting note is that overall the Packers haven't run as many offensive plays this season. So when you combine the projected number of targets to Quarless and Rodgers (73) and compare that to the total targets in 2013 to Quarless and Jermichael Finley (88), it's down but overall the number of plays are down anyway.

The number of pass attempts to Eddie Lacy is up slightly, and passes that last year went to James Jones and Jarrett Boykin (so much for his breakout season) have gone to a healthy Randall Cobb and rookie Davante Adams, though not as many. However, the one player that jumps out is Jordy Nelson.

Watch all the big plays from last night's win, including this impressive Jordy Nelson TD: http://t.co/NUr8sZxDhj pic.twitter.com/c8iaJEkRG4
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 10, 2014

29% of all pass attempts have been targeted at Nelson, which leads the team by a wide margin. Early in the season, Nelson was targeted 40% of the time, so he's actually been less featured in recent weeks. He's also had to play against two teams (Lions and Saints) who were very determined to shut him down with double coverage.

Whatever they're doing this season its working in the passing game, Aaron Rodgers moved ahead of Peyton Manning in ESPN's QBR this week, so this is not a complaint. I'm just tracking how the passing game is being used as the season goes on.

Packers Easily Defeat The Bears: 55-14

If it wasn't clear before the Green Bay Packers crushed the Bears at Lambeau, the Packers are a lot better at home than on the road this season. Since they got off to a slow start in their home opener against the Jets, they've dominated their visiting opponents. Though they've also played four home games against four teams who probably won't make the playoffs (Jets, Vikings, Panthers, Bears). They'll get a test of their home field dominance next Sunday when the Eagles come to Lambeau.

It's also clear that teams who don't double cover WR Jordy Nelson (or cover him at all in the Bears' case) are going to lose. The Lions and Saints put a safety over the top and a corner underneath of him for most of their two games and they held him to his lowest performances of the season (59 and 25 yards, respectively, and no touchdowns). The best way to beat the Packers is to take Nelson out of the game and put as much pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers as you can, and the Bears didn't come close to accomplishing either of those tasks on Sunday night.

FINAL: #Packers improve to 6-3 with a 55-14 victory over the #Bears. #CHIvsGB pic.twitter.com/YMELnAhFl6
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 10, 2014

They have to keep pace with the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Lions, and that is what they did with the win. It'd be nice if one of those teams would slip up and open up a playoff spot for the Packers right now, but if they keep winning, it will happen eventually.

The major analysis has to be the decision to move LB Clay Matthews to inside linebacker (though he did line up outside as a pass rusher on several obvious passing downs). This is a really good idea and it worked very well in Game One of the experiment (he led the team in tackles and had a sack).

Ideally, this is not what I had in mind this season. Ideally, Clay circa 2010-2012 would be on the outside and GM Ted Thompson would have drafted another inside linebacker who is like Desmond Bishop circa 2010-2011 to play alongside him.

Moving Matthews inside, letting him watch the play develop in front of him instead of having him guess (usually incorrectly this season) at the line of scrimmage, should take advantage of his relentless pursuit while not running him out of the play altogether. He's good at dropping back into coverage and he can run sideline to sideline. He should be a very good inside linebacker and they'll still be using him occasionally as an outside rusher and inside blitzer.

This hopefully means more playing time for LB Nick Perry, who's been having a good 2014 season with limited snaps. Replacing one of the disappointing inside linebackers (Brad Jones, Jamari Lattimore) with Mike Neal isn't a big help (Neal's provided next to nothing as a pass rusher), but more snaps for Perry alongside Matthews would effectively replace his 2014 performance while solving their problems on the inside.

This was a really great game for the Packers and a historically bad one for the Bears (the 1923 Rochester Jeffersons?) but it only counts as one win. Now they'll immediately have to start looking ahead to the Eagles.

Reaction: Packers Cruise Past Panthers 38-17

The Packers beat the Panthers in a one-sided affair this afternoon, and really, they did so in an ideal way. Here's my takeaways from it:

1. Aaron Rodgers is Unstoppable Right Now:

Seriously, he is. This game was over in the first quarter.

2. The Defense is Improving:

They still have some work to do, but with the early three-and-outs and Clay Matthews' sudden involvement today they definitely showed some promise.

3. The Saints Should Be Beatable:

A performance half as good as this one will probably be good enough to bring them down next week. Hopefully, at least.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this subject? If so, please share them.

Matthews Blaming Evolution of Offenses For His Recent Struggles

Packers LB Clay Matthews is blaming "evolution of offenses" for his recent struggles.

"I think statistically, obviously, you'd love to have more stats, but I know the sacks will come and the numbers will always be there," Matthews told ESPN.com today. "But at the same time, I think you have to look at the evolution of offenses that we continue to play, especially with the zone-read and them knowing the guys who we possess on this side of the ball about stopping that first line of defense, being us rushers. You saw that last week with having us kind of read and react in playing that offense." 

In last Sunday's win over the Dolphins, Matthews failed to record a tackle despite being on the field for 84% of Green Bay's defensive snaps, an unfortunate happening that will only continue this week if the Panthers run the read option.

Matthews Thinks "He Can Do it All" Right Now

Packers LB Clay Matthews thinks "he can do it all" right now.

"I think I can do it all," Matthews recently told FOX Sports in reference to his wanting to expand his role on Green Bay's defense. "I think over the years I've been known as a sack guy, but I think what's been lost in the shuffle is the fact that I can cover, I can play in space and rush the passer as well."

That "sack guy" comment certainly rains true. Nonetheless, if Matthews could do a little more this season I'm sure the Pack would take it, as their defense has been pretty inconsistent over the first two games.