Packers On The Bye Week: Sitting Strong at 6-0

When Football Outsiders recapped the Week 6 games, they specifically mentioned two NFC North teams (Packers over Chargers and Vikings over Chiefs). These were both close, one score victories by two NFC North teams, but according to Football Outsiders's advanced metrics, neither game was as close as the score suggested. The Packers significantly outplayed the Chargers in their win, and the Chiefs significantly outplayed the Vikings in defeat. The Chargers looked better than they were because they ran almost twice as many plays as the Packers (which in itself is a problem) while the Chiefs were hurt by penalties and every big play went against them.

It's too early to say the Packers are guaranteed to win the NFC North, they've only played one divisional game so far, but they're up by three games already and their only significant competition (Vikings at 3-2) are ranked as the 26th best team by Football Outsiders after Week 6. But it's fair to say that they're in great shape to win the division.

The NFC North standings as the #Packers enter the bye week. pic.twitter.com/7ILdK4XRPw

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 20, 2015

One other interesting note on the 2015 season is how it's top heavy. There are five unbeaten teams still remaining but no winless teams and 12 teams with only 2 wins, which means there's a lot of mediocrity. There are only 10 teams with a winning record and 19 teams with a losing record. There are a lot games left to play but there aren't a bunch of teams hot on the Packers' heels either. It gives them some cushion just in case they struggle early next month when they travel for two tough road games (at Denver, at Carolina).

Damarious Randall Comes Up Big: Packers Hold On For 27-20 Win Over Chargers

On one hand it's pretty good to see that when the Green Bay Packers struggle with their pass offense and defense they can still win a game and never trail in it. On the other hand, they weren't slouches either. On a per pass attempt basis, QB Aaron Rodgers's stats were just as good as QB Philip Rivers (though Rivers re-wrote the Chargers' record book on Sunday with new team records for completions, attempts, and yards in a single game) but problems on 3rd downs held them back again. And though the defense struggled a lot, when they needed a big play to close out the game, their rookie CB came up big.

First-round pick Randall makes big play as Packers hold on to beat Chargers http://t.co/oYBHZg5qg7 pic.twitter.com/CzSPc03YXB

— Leader Telegram (@LeaderTelegram) October 19, 2015

I was debating afterwards whether Rivers's pass attempt could have been better, but on replay, it looked like a heck of a pass. He had a tight window at the front of the end zone and he can't throw it high because his receiver is only 5 foot 8. He threw it right where it should have gone but Randall made a great play on the ball.

It was a weird day for the defense. Their troubled run defense shut down the Chargers' ground game even without NT B.J. Raji and SS Morgan Burnett while their fantastic pass rush went missing. The stat line shows 3 sacks and 13 QB pressures, but most of those came late when DC Dom Capers dialed up the blitz as much as he dared. And the Chargers' offensive line had been a wreck for most of the season. Without a pass rush, the Chargers were great at converting on 3rd down (50%) even without a running game and this wasn't the first game the defense has had trouble getting off the field. But they were a surprisingly good bend-but-don't-break defense, which is unusual for them. On the Chargers' last 4 possessions, they ran 38 plays for 209 yards but came away with only 3 points. For as many passing yards as they allowed, to only surrender 20 points is a victory.

Mike McCarthy was asked in the post-game press conference about what happened to RB Eddie Lacy? His answer focused on RB James Starks, who he said deserved some playing time while Lacy's been banged up (though Lacy's not listed on the injury report). Starks proved his coach right and exploded for a big run and his best game in a long while, but keeping Lacy on the bench when the team is lacking play makers (WR Randall Cobb was held to only 2 receptions and he had a big drop) is an odd choice. It worked OK this week since Starks was great and WR Jeff Janis had his first receptions of the season (for big yards) but I'd rather see Lacy play a more prominent role because there's no one else like him on offense.

Getting more from Lacy would also probably help their continued struggles on 3rd down. They were only 3 for 9 on 3rd downs and needed to sustain drives to match what the Chargers are doing. 33% isn't their lowest conversion rate of the season, that came last week against the Rams when they were at 31%, but that hardly makes it better. As much trouble as the defense had getting off the field, the offense struggled to stay on it.

This is probably the best time for their bye week, as they're scheduled to play two currently unbeaten teams on the road to start November (Broncos then Panthers). The injured players can hopefully get better and the coaches can consider some mid-season adjustments.

Packers Defense Is Rolling But What About The Offense?

I've been spoiled by QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense for a while. But for the first time in maybe forever, in the Football Outsiders weekly rankings, the offense (5th overall) is rated lower than the defense (4th overall). Most of this has to do with a much better performance this season by the defense, but last season, the offense was rated No. 1 overall by FO. What's to account for this mini-slump on offense?

#Packers WR Randall Cobb was drawing some extra attention on Sunday. Take a look at the film: http://t.co/kG6L0PJ5HG pic.twitter.com/C5fSiZRu1p

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 14, 2015

The short answer is that the offense is missing WR Jordy Nelson. It's also been missing WR Davante Adams, but the good news is that he's back at practice this week. As good as WR James Jones has been, which isn't his fault because Nelson is one of the best in the NFL, he hasn't been effectively a replacement for Nelson. Jones and rookie WR Ty Montgomery are effectively replacing what was hoped for from Adams. Despite the extra attention above, Cobb's basically been the same as last season, though a few more passes have falling incomplete to him.

His absence has also hurt the ground game, probably because the opponent's safety is less worried about deep coverage without Nelson around and more interested in RB Eddie Lacy. The run game wasn't helped when RT Bryan Bulaga missed a few games either. Lacy's yards per carry are significantly down this season (4.6 in 2014 vs. 4.1 in 2015) and it's even worse for RB James Starks (3.9 in 2014 vs. 3.3 in 2015). With the run offense struggling, it's getting harder to convert on 3rd down. Here's how they've done through the first five games:

	Team	3rd Down %	Points Scored
Week 1	Bears	60%	31
Week 2	Seattle	36%	27
Week 3	Chiefs	36%	38
Week 4	Niners	33%	17
Week 5	Rams	31%	24

The offense has scored 17 points in their last two games, and the 3rd down conversion percentage is trending downward with each passing game. The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and that Week 1 conversion rate on 3rd down is looking more like the exception not the rule. The Packers converted for a 1st down on 47.2% of their 3rd downs in 2014 vs. 38.3% overall in 2015, so many drives that kept going last season are ending up with a change of possession.

Unfortunately there's no easy answer to get the offense back to how it was in 2014. Bulaga is back, which can only help since he's much better than Don Barclay, and Adams will eventually recover from his high ankle sprain. Montgomery should continue to improve during his rookie season. But the only player who can really take them to the next level is Nelson. So the best offense in the NFL might just have to settle for being No. 5 overall this season.

Packers Sack, Intercept The Rams: 24-10

It was the second consecutive lackluster performance for the Green Bay Packers offense, but it was the second outstanding game for the defense (at least against the pass). Somewhere QB Nick Foles is still having nightmares:

.@ClayMatthews52 coming through! #SACK #STLvsGB pic.twitter.com/CpLiCi3dM0

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 11, 2015

The pressure on Foles was relentless, mostly from LB Clay Matthews, LB Julius Peppers, and DE Datone Jones. The coverage was good too, notably from CB Sam Shields, but the pressure was so bad that Foles couldn't get anything going. In his first 4 games this season, he had 1 INT but he had 4 INTs against the Packers.

The run defense gave up a ton of yards to RB Todd Gurley, but his offensive line was run blocking better than they were pass blocking and the Packers usually allow an extra DB to play instead of a run stuffing LB/DE. When Gurley got into the open field, he did look a lot like RB Adrian Peterson but for Gurley it's more about his speed than his power. He was lethal in the open field and the Packers run defense isn't, which was a bad combination. But the Rams' complete inability to throw the ball wasted his effort.

The big story was that QB Aaron Rodgers threw an INT for the first time since 2012 at Lambeau. The first one was tipped at the line and LB James Laurinaitis made a great diving grab. The second INT looked trapped and probably wasn't intercepted. He was also stripped sack when DE Robert Quinn (one of the best edge rushers in the NFL) beat LT David Bakhtiari off the edge. It counts as three turnovers but they weren't bone headed plays; they were great plays by the Rams. He still led them on three scoring drives and took advantage of some bad/blown coverage on long TD passes to WR James Jones and WR Ty Montgomery.

The Rams' run defense has been very good this season, and the Packers didn't have much success on the ground against them. Their lack of run success probably played a factor in their lousy conversion rate on 3rd downs (31%) for the second week in a row.

There were a couple injuries to NT B.J. Raji, RG T.J. Lang, and LB Nick Perry. Lang said his was "nothing serious" but it's not clear how bad it was for Raji and Perry.

The Packers have one more game next week (hosting the Chargers) before their bye week. QB Philip Rivers might be the best QB they're scheduled to face this season but he's got issues behind an injured offense line, which might be a huge problem for him against the Packers' fearsome pass rush.

Packers Hosting St. Louis' Pass Rushers On Sunday: Bryan Bulaga Is Back Just In Time

As it was explained to me by a colleague earlier today, the Rams only play well against NFC West teams but they're terrible against everyone else and I shouldn't worry about them in Lambeau against the Packers.

However the Rams do have a fantastic pass rush and the Packers have struggled protecting QB Aaron Rodgers. But one of their best lineman will be returning from injury just in time.

Bryan Bulaga: "If I feel good, I'm going to play." #STLvsGB Read more: http://t.co/SKiQWXPcba pic.twitter.com/R1VPrpXzcs

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 9, 2015

Depending on the game, Bulaga's replacement, RT Don Barclay, has varied from OK to horrible. There really is no comparison, and Bulaga is significantly better.

There will be a few notable Packers missing: WR Davante Adams is still out with a high ankle sprain, and SS Morgan Burnett with a calf injury. Both are listed as questionable, but the fact that neither one practiced on Friday is bad sign. The offense has continued to play well without Adams as Jones and Montgomery have stepped up in his absence. But the run defense has really struggled except when they're bringing an extra safety down into the box, which they can get away with against QB Colin Kaepernick, but not against QB Nick Foles, who has a good deep ball. Burnett was strong against the run last season and he's been missed so far in 2015.

He's struggled in limited snaps, but it was also reported that SS Sean Richardson suffered a serious neck injury. I had forgotten about the serious neck injury he suffered in 2012, and that was one I didn't think he come back from. This one might end his career.

The Packers favored by 9 points, and the Rams might be without a couple of notable players: LB Alec Ogletree and WR Kenny Britt. Those might not seem like the biggest names ever, but Ogletree enters this game as their leading tackler and Britt as their leading receiver in yards. Ogletree is definitely out, though Britt is expected to play through his injured knee.

Week 4 QB Rankings: Aaron Rodgers Is Near The Top

After the Pro Football Focus article that gave QB Aaron Rodgers a negative score for throwing for 5 TDs and 0 INTs against the Chiefs, I wanted to look at how quarterback performance matches up with a team's record. They can write about the plays that are expected or plays the other team should make, but a negative shouldn't be taken from a positive. I'm not big on intangibles, but they are part of the game and players have to make plays. Some do, some don't.

There are 6 teams without a loss after 4 games, and as you might expect, most of those teams' without a loss are getting great play from their quarterbacks.

	Week 4	QBR	2015	QBR	FO
		2015	Losses	2014	Rk
1	Roethlisberger	91.3	2	72.1	6
2	Dalton	87.7	0	53.9	2
3	Rodgers	87.3	0	77.4	4
4	Brady	83.1	0	74.6	1
5	Ryan	81.4	0	71.0	5
6	Palmer	80.3	1	67.7	3
9	Bridgewater	65.1	2	56.9	29
15	Cutler	58.2	3	52.8	16
25	Stafford	50.3	4	53.5	19

The two exceptions are Carolina and Denver, who are winning despite mediocre QB play from Peyton Manning and Cam Newton. They're undefeated because of their great defenses and some help from the schedule makers.

The point is that Rodgers is just above or just below of three other undefeated QBs (Dalton, Brady, Ryan) which is right where he should be.

Former Packers head coach Lindy Infante Has Died

For those of you who don't remember (refuse to remember) the bleak era of the late 1980s, Lindy Infante was the coach who gave all of us Green Bay Packer fans a glimmer of hope with an unlikely 10-6 record in 1989 (though no playoff berth).

Blog: Former #Gators player, assistant coach Lindy Infante dies; 1989 #NFL Coach of Year: http://t.co/VxClBagPTx pic.twitter.com/7eajxyKDRo

— Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) October 8, 2015

Unfortunately he couldn't build on that surprising 1989 season and GM Ron Wolf fired him in December 1991. Wolf then hired HC Mike Holmgren, traded for QB Brett Favre, and shocked the NFL world by luring free agent DE Reggie White to Green Bay, but Infante's contributions weren't part of the turnaround.

The best I can recall from Wolf's The Packer Way book, he wasn't too impressed with Infante's team in 1991 while Infante believed his players were just the victim of unfortunate events. Infante really believed in his players (to his determent) and Wolf knew it was time to clean house (with a couple exceptions, such as WR Sterling Sharpe and LT Ken Ruettgers). But I'll always remember that 1989 season.

The Defense Shuts Them Down: Packers Defeat 49ers, 17-3

It was a historic performance for the Green Bay Packers defense who held the 49ers to their worst offensive performance since 1963 or 1964. As the game went on, the Packer fans in attendance took over and flipped the home field advantage.

Packers fans turned Levi's Stadium into Lambeau Field in the second half. http://t.co/9mI0xIblTU https://t.co/Vfjyz3xyo0

— SB Nation (@SBNation) October 4, 2015

Why was the defense so good? RB Carlos Hyde couldn't run the ball, the run defense was all over him on every carry, and QB Colin Kaepernick has no accuracy downfield. At first, he wouldn't throw the ball deep, but when he finally did start going deep, he usually threw it out of bounds. He connected on one long pass to WR Torrey Smith but that was the exception. In the first half, Kaepernick had some success on designed cut back runs, but in the second half, FS HaHa Clinton-Dix went into the box to shut it all down. There were times in the third quarter when it looked like the Packers were playing with a single deep safety, sometimes it looked like it was only 4th stringer S Chris Banjo deep, but the 49ers still couldn't take advantage of it.

With so many defenders playing near the line, and LBs Nick Perry and Jayrone Elliott adding extra pressure along with the usual suspects (Matthews, Peppers, Daniels, etc.), they overwhelmed the 49ers' underwhelming offensive line.

I'd love to write that the Packers D has stepped up, but this was more about how far Kaepernick has fallen. When the announcers start talking about how much the coaches love QB Blaine Gabbert, it's a big problem. Until Kaepernick re-discovers his accuracy, he's not a starting NFL QB.

The offense struggled and QB Aaron Rodgers was frustrated in the first half. He admitted that they were off today. It looked like all the injuries finally caught up to them. Some of the receivers didn't seem on the same page, and that probably doesn't happen if Nelson, Adams and Quarless were playing instead of Montgomery, Janis and Backman.

But no starter was missed as much as RT Bryan Bulaga. I was OK with RT Don Barclay allowing pressure as long as he didn't allow hits or sacks. However, in this game, he gave up a couple hits and sacks in addition to all the usual pressures. That allowed 49ers LB Aaron Smith to get to know Rodgers up close and personal. I doubt the coaches will make a change at this point because Bulaga should be healthy in three weeks, and then Barclay can go back to the bench.

Another problem on offense was their 3rd down conversion rate (5 for 15) which is usually around 40 to 50 percent. They were 3 for 4 on 3rd downs in the 3rd quarter, and that's the quarter in which the offense score 10 points on consecutive drives. The reasons listed above ("off today" and Barclay) caused most of the problems, but penalties were also a semi-problem. LG Josh Sitton never commits penalties and he had two holding penalties on Sunday. Barclay will still be a problem in the near future, but otherwise the offense should be much improved by returning home to Lambeau for next week's game.

It wasn't the most impressive win, but winning on the road is never easy, and they've opened up a two game lead over their next closest NFC North rival.

Not Everyone Was A Fan Of Aaron Rodgers' Dismantling Of The Chiefs

I love Pro Football Focus because each week (and season) it assigns a grade to each player, and this is especially helpful for players like offensive lineman who rarely generate any traditional stats at all. PFF assigns one point for a good play and one negative point for a bad play. The only problem is that it's subjective; a person assigns the grade and different people focus on different things.

It's like with scouting, where some teams see QB Aaron Rodgers as worthy of a 1st round pick and 22 other teams (the Vikings twice!) decide he's not the best available player on their 2005 draft board. Different scouts have different opinions. I'll look at other stats when they're available for players, such as ESPN's QBR and Football Outsiders, and add additional facts to PFF's grades, such as I did last week about how the huge negative grade PFF assigned to David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay against the Seahawks wasn't the whole story.

So PFF got a lot of flack (deservedly) this week for assigning a negative grade to Rodgers after he threw for 5 touchdowns and no turnovers. Their defense of this grade has generated over 700 comments. For some comparison, they gave a positive grade to QB Nick Foles as he led the Rams to 6 points, no touchdowns, and the loss at home against a weak Steelers defense.

Why was Aaron Rodgers' grade that low? The tape tells a better story than the box score: https://t.co/cq57cOcrzm

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) September 29, 2015

So how did Rodgers earn a negative grade?

Of his five touchdown passes, only two of them earned him a positive grade. The other three were "expected throws" to WR Randall Cobb and Cobb earned the positive grade (not Rodgers) for "fighting through contact or defeating the coverage with speed to the edge."

He earned negative grades for two turnovers that didn't happen. One of them, a dropped INT by LB Josh Mauga, was a real negative for Rodgers. He either didn't see him standing there or threw an ill advised pass. The other was a fumble in the second quarter when he stood in the pocket too long, but it was overturned by a penalty on CB Marcus Cooper. Rodgers picked on Cooper the entire game, and when he fumbled the ball, Rodgers was looking into the corner of the end zone where Cooper was defending. The flag was for illegal contact, and while sometimes those flags are called for a quick jab after 5 yards, on that particular play, Cooper was riding the receiver out of the back of the end zone. Somehow, PFF didn't appear to give Cooper a negative grade for that terrible penalty. The only reason it wasn't pass interference was that he didn't actually throw the ball. He held the ball too long because his intended receiver was being ran right off the field.

So two positive touchdown grades, and two negative turnover grades, and something else slightly bad, pushed him down to a negative 0.8 grade. That would be OK so long as you ignore everything else that was going on:

Andy Reid's getting out-coached by Aaron Rodgers.

— Marc Sessler (@MarcSesslerNFL) September 29, 2015

Rodgers is like an offensive coordinator standing on the field. He's watching everything, reading defenses, and picking them apart, like he did to the Chiefs on Monday. How about a positive grade for every time he adjusted the pass blocking? Or every time he saw single coverage while he was lined up before the snap and threw the receiver open? Or whenever he saw CB Tyvon Branch was "covering" someone and threw the ball to that receiver? Did he get any points for his two hard counts, when he drew off-side penalties and threw a long pass/touchdown while the defense was standing around? He made a 100 little decisions that made it look easy to throw 5 touchdown passes against the Chiefs, but he appeared to have received no points for it.

Many NFL QBs (such as Nick Foles) didn't manage a single TD pass last week, but Foles didn't receive any negative grades for the passes he couldn't even attempt because he couldn't move his team's offense into scoring position. It's a flawed scoring system that considers any NFL touchdown an "expected throw" because it's never that easy. Quarterbacks are so important to any offense that they always deserve some of the credit for their team's success.

It's Hard To Lose When Aaron Rodgers Is Playing Like This: Packers Over Chiefs, 38-28

The Chiefs scored on three late touchdown drives and made a comeback seem possible, even if it was never very likely, but the Packers stopped a two-point conversion and recovered the resulting onside kick before running out the clock.

The Chiefs were going to have problems on defense, and losing one of their starting cornerbacks mid-game (when another startering CB was already suspended) made it almost impossible. The Chiefs should have known what was coming, the Packers just kept throwing touchdowns on a variation of the same play to WR Randall Cobb, but apparently they didn't have the personnel to adjust. LB Justin Houston was held in check, and outside of a nice overload blitz in the first half and a couple of bull rushes from LB Tamba Hali, the Chiefs couldn't sack or hit QB Aaron Rodgers, who ended up with 333 yards, 5 TD passes and no turnovers.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers continues to put up amazing numbers at Lambeau Field pic.twitter.com/8EyAiIZ04V

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 29, 2015

They built a huge 31-7 lead but the Chiefs got back into the game for a couple reasons.

The Packers couldn't run the ball late without RB Eddie Lacy. While he did play for most of the game, he appeared to have a slight limp near the end, and the offense went with RB James Starks on their final two drives. The Packers brought in their biggest lineman, G Josh Walker, for some power rushing that went nowhere. They probably would have been better off spreading the Chiefs out and seeing if Starks could make a defender miss in the open field. They punted on 4 of their 6 second half possessions, and they couldn't eat up enough clock.

The defense was a disaster in the red zone. It wasn't a monster game for RB Jamaal Charles, except when he got the ball within 10 yards of the goal line, and then he was automatic for a touchdown run. These red zone problems popped up last season too, and they don't seem to have gotten a lot better in 2015. They probably missed SS Morgan Burnett because the secondary seemed confused a lot of the time. I thought they might go with disappointing SS Sean Richardson, but instead they started rookie CB Damarious Randall and Chris Banjo played safety in their dime packages. Randall did make a couple plays, but then got lost on a couple others, especially when he was spun around and beaten badly by WR Jeremy Maclin on a long catch and run. This was pretty disappointing because the defense was all over QB Alex Smith, who was sacked 7 times, and shut down the Chiefs for first 40 minutes.

There were also 12 penalties on the Packers, which isn't going to make Mike McCarthy very happy. The defense needs to straighten out their confusion in the secondary, and I can't believe I'm writing this, but maybe the return of DE Letroy Guion from suspension will help their run defense. It's never easy on the road, but the Packers travel to San Francisco next week, and 49ers are coming off two road beatings and a 40 point loss. It'll be a good test to see if the Packers can contain a good rushing attack that features a QB who's absolutely torn them up on the ground in the past.

The Packers Will Be Without Morgan Burnett Against The Chiefs

While the Green Bay Packers offense has been dominant (thanks Aaron!) the run defense has been the worst in the NFL so far in 2015 (according to Football Outsiders), and the injury to SS Morgan Burnett is not helping:

Eddie Lacy, Davante Adams PROBABLE, Morgan Burnett OUT vs. Chiefs. #KCvsGB Injury updates: http://t.co/4lnixFOwdU pic.twitter.com/s1DvyKZJWR

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 27, 2015

It's good to see that Lacy and Adams should play. But the drop off from Lacy to James Starks isn't as great as the drop off from Burnett to SS Sean Richardson. Starks was effective in relief against the Seahawks, but Richardson's looked a bit lost at times. Richardson's negative grade at Pro Football Focus is almost the same as Burnett's after two games, but Richardson's struggles have come in half as many snaps and he's not been playing through an injury. Burnett was great against the run in 2014, so his absence is a big loss when the Chiefs's best offensive weapon is at running back.

While RB Matt Forte was dominant on the ground in Week 1, the Chiefs aren't going to copy that game plan. Their head coach is still Andy Reid; who's never been known as a run-first play caller. But without Burnett, holding the Chiefs to under 4 ypc is probably a pipe dream. Burnett's loss combined with the season ending injury to LB Sam Barrington takes away the two defenders who were expected to be responsible this season for calling out the defenses. The duties have largely switched over to LB Clay Matthews, and while neither Burnett or Barrington are irreplaceable, their combined absence is sure to have some negative effect.

The Packers Might Throw The Ball A Lot Against The Chiefs

Mike McCarthy never abandons the run completely. Sometimes it's a key part of the game plan and sometimes it's just there to distract the defense, and with RB Eddie Lacy, the defense can never ignore the ground game. But this looks like the week that the Packers will go into a pass heavy mode.

Part of the problem stems from their bookend tackles. Here's the analysis from Pro Football Focus after their win over the Seahawks:

They’re teammates on the Packers, and teammates on this list. Aaron Rodgers was running for his life as Barclay, filling in for injured right tackle Bryan Bulaga, allowed an unbelievable 10 QB hurries. Bakhtiari was hardly better, allowing seven QB hurries and both of the Seahawks’ sacks.

Neither of them is particularly strong when it comes to getting a push in the run game, or holding up against a bull rush on passing downs, but that pass blocking criticism above is a little too harsh. While they did allow many QB hurries, those hurries rarely resulted in hits or sacks. Both tackles were pushed around but they stayed on their blocks, which made pursuit difficult, and Rodgers moved around to find wide open areas where he picked the defense apart, as he did on this touchdown pass:

Aaron Rodgers decided to test Richard Sherman So James Jones decided to beat Sherman for six. TOUCHDOWN! #SEAvsGB http://t.co/UEB0iQ3v7w

— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2015

The tackles can hold up against the pass rush better than they can open up big holes for the running backs. It also doesn't help that Lacy might miss the game as he recovers from a sprained ankle. Though RB James Starks proved that he can be effective replacement, the Chiefs defense is really good against the run.

The Chiefs are ranked as currently having the 2nd best run defense by Pro Football Focus, and the 3rd best by Football Outsiders. But neither site had them ranked highly against the run in 2014, so these first two games might have been a sign that they played against teams (Houston and Denver) who are having trouble running the ball.

The Chiefs were pretty good to really good against the pass in 2014, depending on the site's rankings, mostly because of LB Justin Houston, who's a terror rushing the passer. But they're still missing their top cornerback for one more game, and outside of Houston, their pass rush and coverage isn't dominate. Despite Houston's presence, I don't know how they'll game plan for him, they'll probably have an easier time throwing than running against a stout run defense.

Packers Beat Seahawks 27-17, But Lose Eddie Lacy To Ankle Injury

It was hard to watch all the carts drive off players during the first half (Eddie Lacy, then Davante Adams and Josh Boyd). But QB Aaron Rodgers was fantastic once again, including a sick touchdown pass to WR James Jones (of course) against CB Richard Sherman while jumping in the air. However, LB Jayrone Elliott was the surprise, big playmaker of the game.

Jayrone Elliott: I'll take that. #Interception #SEAvsGB pic.twitter.com/UBzi55Ul3O

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 21, 2015

Elliott has been a star of the last two preseasons, but it hadn't carried over into the regular season yet. The Packers tried everyone at outside linebacker in this game and they all struggled to generate a pass rush or contain QB Russell Wilson on the bootleg and cut backs. Most of the pass rush came against Seattle's interior lineman. Elliott was the last outside linebacker to take the field (Peppers, Matthews, Perry, Mulumba, and Neal all played snaps outside before Elliott) but the interception above was the turning point, and his forced fumble on RB Fred Jackson sealed the victory.

The pass coverage had at least one busted coverage and CB Micah Hyde allowed a couple big plays, but generally the coverage was tight and TE Jimmy Graham was held to only one catch. After getting exposed last week in Chicago, CB Sam Shields was rarely seen against the Seahawks (which is probably a good sign that he's getting the job done and we don't see him). The interior of the defensive line (Raji, Daniels, and Pennel) often overpowered the unheralded interior lineman of the Seahawks, and they were the big reason why RB Marshawn Lynch never got going on the ground.

RT Don Barclay struggled badly in the preseason during his first action since injuring his knee in 2014, but he was decent in place of RT Bryan Bulaga. Though it wasn't a perfect performance; he did miss blocks and was overpowered on one sack (LT David Bakhtiari was overpowered on the same play). It wasn't perfect and Rodgers was hit on more plays than I'd like to see, but his lineman overall gave him time to throw and RB James Starks some room to run against a tough run defense.

While Starks did have a great game, except for a first half fumble which, at least, wasn't turned into any points by the Seahawks, it was made possible by an ankle injury to Lacy. The early indication is that it's not serious, so hopefully it will be one of Starks's few big moments in 2015. He's a solid running back, but his track record with injuries makes it unlikely he'd survive an entire season.

It was a small coming out party for WR Ty Montgomery, who didn't blow up the stat sheet (4 receptions for 37 yards) but he had a couple 3rd down receptions on their final scoring drive that helped eat up a lot of clock. Also, he slipped away from Sherman in the first half and drew a 50+ yard pass interference call. It's not going to be all Jones as a replacement for WR Jordy Nelson, and it looks like Montgomery can take on some of the responsibility.

The Packers now get a little more time to recover, and let Lacy's ankle heal, as they don't play until next week Monday night. The Chiefs are a good team but playing them in Lambeau (the Packers last game against the Chiefs was in 2011, when they lost their only regular season game that year on the road in Kansas City) is a big help.

Packers Lose Starting Linebacker Sam Barrington For The Season

LB Sam Barrington is not my favorite player, he had a huge negative grade from Pro Football Focus in 2014 and a slightly negative grade on his only 16 snaps of 2015, but it never helps to lose a starter for the season.

"Different schemes, different players" will replace Sam Barrington. More from Coach McCarthy: http://t.co/B6C5ATnrnM pic.twitter.com/OrZ2uZDfn5

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 16, 2015

The Packers have already previewed their defense without Barrington. They played most of the Bears game without him, and the different schemes involved a lot of Nate Palmer and Clay Matthews. They were the only other inside linebackers who played last week. LB Jayrone Elliott unexpectedly received some playing time, but maybe that was because LB Nick Perry was stinking up the joint (his negative 4.3 grade from PFF was the worst of any defender last Sunday) and he wasn't playing just so Matthews could spend more time inside.

It's going to be a rocky ride for Palmer, who's new to the inside backer position, still playing with a splint on his injured hand, and now has to wear the speaker helmet for the coaches instructions on the field. Maybe with an extra week to prepare, they'll plan on working rookie Jake Ryan into the defense, though he didn't take the field against the Bears (except on special teams). Without a lot of depth on the inside, the loss of Barrington might become a big problem if Palmer struggles with his role on defense.

Packers Start 2015 1-0: Defeat Bears 31-23

The big story was obviously WR James Jones, who looked like he never left Green Bay. He signed early this week after being released by the New York Giants, and caught two touchdowns with a 3rd that was taken away by a penalty.

James Jones is back. #GBvsCHI pic.twitter.com/yA8VzSrKx5

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 13, 2015

Technically the Packers had 30 run plays to only 23 pass attempts, but 8 of those rushes were by QB Aaron Rodgers and one was a lateral to TE Richard Rodgers after the pass protection broke down. So the Packers are keeping their pass heavy ways even though Tom Clements is technically calling the plays now instead of Mike McCarthy. Rodgers still calls a lot of the plays himself, so some things won't change, and again it was a nearly flawless game from Rodgers with a QBR of 94.4, 3 touchdowns and no turnovers. He even looked good when running, though I hope he does less of it as the season goes on.

Only five receivers were targeted, which surprised me because I was expecting the Packers would rely on many receivers to overcome the preseason loss of WR Jordy Nelson. All those targets that would have gone to Nelson last season have to go somewhere. Instead, they got a break when the Giants released Jones. I wasn't sure he would actually move ahead of WR Ty Montgomery, but it doesn't look like JJ's forgotten any of the offense, while I'm sure Montgomery is still learning it. Though Montgomery did make his mark with a big kickoff return.

Oh, CB Sam Shields. The Bears saw something they liked, and almost every running play and crossing route went to Shields's side of the field. He's great in single coverage down the sidelines, he knocked a touchdown pass away from WR Alshon Jeffrey in the end zone, but he struggled with nearly every open field tackle that came his way. It'll be something to watch as the season goes on, and the absence of starting S Morgan Burnett might have made the situation worse.

LB Clay Matthews is still a beast. He ran across the field to tackle a running back from behind on one play, and on the game clinching INT he ran from left to right tackle to make the interception. He didn't have a huge impact as a pass rusher, it was LB Julius Peppers's day in that department, but as long as Matthews's is healthy and still running at full speed, it's only a matter of time until the sacks come.

LB Nate Palmer in pass coverage. As you might expect, there's been some rough patches watching Palmer, a former college defensive end, adapt to life as a pass covering inside linebacker in the NFL. And he's coming off a lost season, and played the entire preseason with a giant club on his injured hand. The Packers lost LB Sam Barrington mid-game with an ankle injury, and though Barrington's no great shakes in pass coverage either, he's still probably better than Palmer.

As much as they struggled with RB Matt Forte on defense, they once again had no problem with QB Jay Cutler (who always seems to play his worst against the Packers) and the offense hummed along with the addition of Jones. Next week they host the Seahawks, who are looking for answers after their upset loss to the Rams, in arguably the biggest regular season game of the season.

Packers Beat Saints On Thursday and Set Their 53 Man Roster on Saturday

Few projected starters took the field for the Green Bay Packers last Thursday against the Saints, and those that did see the field like DE Mike Daniels weren't there for long. It was the QB Brett Hundley show again as the Packers have found a NFL starting QB in the 5th round but I'm not sure if anyone played well enough on Thursday to have changed the team's mind.

Abbrederis, Thornton, R. Neal, Bradford headline #Packers cuts to 53-man limit. Blog: http://t.co/Uuqk6bRoDZ pic.twitter.com/ithwGtRe96

— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) September 5, 2015

WR Ty Montgomery didn't take the field against the Saints which looked like a sign that he had the No. 3 job locked up, that was until the Giants released WR James Jones. He hasn't been gone for long and should step right back in. Plus he's been working this year with former Packer coach Ben McAdoo in New York. Though Janis catches a TD pass in almost every preseason game, he also vanishes for stretches and does drop a pass or two. White is a handy emergency receiver who's familiar with the system but he has either a drop or penalty in every game. I love Abbrederis's game, but he had a fumble in his only preseason game played (ball security in the preseason is huge) and he hasn't been healthy over the last two years.

They keep nine offensive lineman. OL Don Barclay and Josh Walker led everyone in snaps played this preseason, but neither of them was very good. At times, as many as four starting lineman were out with injuries, so this might have to do more with keeping depth than quality.

RB Alonzo Harris stays, RB Rajion Neal is released. I'm a little surprise that either of them were kept. It had to help Harris that he's a big guy, he out weighs Lacy, and McCarthy generally prefers size and power.

They keep five defensive lineman. This could become a seven man rotation after DE Datone Jones and DT Letroy Guion finish their suspensions but they won't have much depth for their first game. Despite being a 3rd round pick, Thornton never did show much (though he was never terrible either) and his release isn't a big surprise. I'm not sure how DT Josh Boyd has kept his job, the Saints shoved him all over the place in the 1st quarter, but he'll be part of the rotation in 2015. Hopefully Pennel and Gaston play bigger roles during the regular season than Boyd.

They keep nine linebackers. I'm a little surprised to see LB Nate Palmer survived the transition to inside backer while wearing a club on his broken hand, but his rivals (like Carl Bradford) never surpassed him. LB James Vaughters had a nice preseason and it would be good to see him back, and LB Joe Thomas (though he's too small) is another quality player, though neither brings something that they don't currently have on the roster from another player. I hope they find a role for rookie 4th round LB Jake Ryan during the regular season.

They'll have three rookie cornerbacks on the 53-man roster. CB Ladarius Gunter was the surprise of the preseason and it's not at all to see him make the roster in addition to their two top draft choices, who both struggled as the preseason wrapped up. They really needed someone like Gunter to emerge because they lost three veteran CBs this offseason (Williams, House, Bush) and they needed replacements. Who'll be that 3rd CB, someone who occasionally lines up outside in place of Shields or Hayward? Gunter deserves the job on merit but it's not clear he's actually moved ahead of either Russell or Rollins so far.

It's a pretty deep roster and while WR Jordy Nelson's loss casts a shadow over the preseason, he's the only player currently on the I.R. In recent years, the Packers have sometimes had several players on the I.R. to start the season, so Nelson's injury is huge but overall the roster is in good health. Compare that to their first opponent, the Bears, who have five players on I.R. right now. It does seem like Aaron Rodgers is correct and the preseason is too long, especially that fourth game that probably changed their roster little, but I don't see how that would have avoided Nelson's knee injury. Bring on the Bears!

2015 Preseason Game 3: Packers Lose To Eagles 39-26, Down 25-0 After 1st Quarter

The 1st quarter against the Eagles was as bad as it gets for the Green Bay Packers. It was a complete team meltdown, but mostly it was the defense just not defending:

#Packers starting defense has allowed 242 yards, 17 first downs, 19-22 completions, 25 points (not counting INT TD)

— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) August 30, 2015

The special teams started off the game by allowing a 67 yard kickoff return. P Tim Masthay looked terrible early (but better later) and the Eagles had fantastic field position on almost every possession. QB Brett Hundley looked great overall but his first pass attempt led to a shoulder injury for WR Randall Cobb (it might be minor) and his second one turned into a pick-six when TE Richard Rodgers slipped and fell while running his route. And all the penalties, penalties, and more penalties.

And unfortunately this just happens sometimes. Especially early in the season. Last season, the Packers were bad in Week 1 at Seattle, then at home in Week 2 against the Jets, and lastly in Week 3 in Detroit, before Aaron Rodgers told everyone to R-E-L-A-X and they won 13 of their last 16 games.

There was a lot of bad on defense. LB Sam Barrington was abused in coverage, and while he's not my favorite player, he was about average against the pass last season. There was little pass rush and QB Sam Bradford was barely touched in the pocket. The running lanes for the Eagles' running backs were enormous. But the Packers weren't doing anything special in their scheme either; they seemed to be in their standard nickel package the entire time. The Packers' D isn't the best in the NFL and once in a while they're going to have a bad quarter or two. And it was very nice to see LB Clay Matthews, healthy and back on the field.

Injuries, injuries, injuries. Cobb was the worst news, and it didn't look good for CB Micah Hyde either, who was taken off on a cart. RT Bryan Bulaga twisted his ankle, but later in the game, after getting some ice on it, he was sitting on the bench and putting his shoe back on. He didn't look seriously injured. I'm expecting the entire starting offensive line will be ready to play by Week 1, and that'll be a big help.

Hundley played with the first team offense but he only had RB Eddie Lacy for 4 carries, and he only played with two starting offensive lineman. So his performance with much less than the 1st string offense against the Eagles 1st string defense looks even better. I hope he's never needed in 2015 but after the 2013 collarbone debacle, the Packers need a reliable backup, when necessary.

WRs Jeff Janis, Ty Montgomery, and Myles White. They bring different talents to the field, though Montgomery and Janis are similar type deep threats, down the sidelines and in the middle of the field, while White is more of a short yardage menace. I could see the coaches mixing and matching during the season, depending on the match-up and maybe just seeing who has the hot hand.

TE Kennard Backman. He's playing at a thin position, and he finally showed something as a pass receiver. He made a difficult catch behind his body while getting hit, and then turned a short pass into a lunging touchdown reception. He also drew a holding flag, so he's still a rookie and not going to take any serious playing time away from either Quarless or Rodgers, but he's also looking like he'll make the 53-man roster.

RB Rajion Neal. He's had a great camp and starred against the Eagles with a long TD reception, and some hard running behind an offensive line that wasn't giving him much help. I'm not sure they'll keep a fourth running back but he could be back on the practice squad.

So I wouldn't worry too much about the defense but the special teams need a lot of work. Some of that will work itself out after the 53-man roster is set, but some of their problems might not be so easy, such as what to do with Tim Masthay. And the most important thing will be to get everyone healthy.

Jordy Nelson Is Out For The Season And Who's Going To Replace Him

The word from WR Jordy Nelson and his doctors is bad, and his 2015 season is already over.

Social update via @JordyRNelson: pic.twitter.com/swjiQVFUSG

— SundayNight Football (@SNFonNBC) August 25, 2015

If I had one complaint about the offense last season; it was a bit top heavy. But there's also no reason to complain that QB Aaron Rodgers had three elite receivers to work with (Nelson, Cobb, and Lacy). Below is the statistical breakdown from Football Outsiders and it includes almost everyone who caught a pass in 2014:

	DYAR	Passes	Rank
Nelson	482	151	2
Cobb	479	127	4
Adams	19	66	63
Boykin	-38	12	n/a
Quarless	24	46	22
Rodgers	-8	30	34
Lacy	112	55	4
Starks	-20	29	46

Using their stat DYAR as a guide, the Packers now have to replace about 40% of their receiving production. Most of that is expected to go to WR Davante Adams but there's no guarantee he'll stop dropping passes and become a consistent 300 DYAR weapon. Maybe they can turn Lacy into a Le'veon Bell type threat as a receiver. They could get more from the tight end position, but last season those two were more of a safety valve than a downfield threat, and the Packers will still need a dump-off option for Rodgers in 2015.

I think the answer is going to be that everyone will have to step up. I'm looking back at the 2012 season, when Nelson and WR Greg Jennings were lost for a combined 13 games due to injuries, and here's the statistical receiving breakdown from Football Outsiders:

	DYAR	Passes	Rank
Cobb	300	104	12
Jones	287	98	13
Nelson	257	73	17
Jennings	38	62	64
Driver	13	13	n/a
Finley	84	88	10
Crabtree	69	12	n/a
D.J. Williams	-32	15	n/a
Alex Green	-20	29	39
Kuhn	60	18	n/a
C. Benson	45	15	n/a

The Packers got some sneaky good production out of four players (Driver, Crabtree, Kuhn and Benson) who caught just over one pass per game. They didn't have anyone like that in 2014, and maybe Kuhn can do it again in 2015. Whoever wins the battle for the No. 3 tight end might be asked to be like Tom Crabtree. TE Justin Perillo seemed to be the No. 2 tight end during their first preseason game against the Patriots, but he missed the Steelers game with a concussion and TE Kennard Bachman didn't impress against the Steelers.

Maybe WR Ty Montgomery will surprise me, or WR Jeff Janis, but I look at what Davante Adams did in 2014 and find it hard to believe either one of them could be better as a rookie than Adams. Cobb excelled as a rookie in 2011 but he's the exception, not the rule. WR Myles White has his moments in the preseason, along with some drops, and seems like an unlikely savior.

Other than WR Koren Robinson in 2007, I can't think of a veteran receiver that the Packers even tried to plug into Mike McCarthy's offense, and Robinson wasn't a success. James Jones is mentioned now as a trade target, if the Giants do release or trade him, but the Packers drafted three receivers in 2014 to replace him. Plus the Giants wouldn't gain much in trade and Jones has gotten off to a strong start with them. I can't see any other veteran free agent fit, and there should be some demand when teams like the Bears and Panthers are also trying to replace injured wide receivers.

So it's a tough situation for Green Bay. Instead of relying on Nelson to get open against whatever tight coverage faced him, the Packers are probably going to have to get creative with different personnel and spreading the ball around to many receivers.

Packers Lose Preseason Game, Jordy Nelson Probably Tore His ACL

Things might change on Monday after the MRI on WR Jordy Nelson's knee is reported, but it sure looked like an ACL tear on TV because it was a non-contact injury after a reception, like something snapped when he stretched out his leg. And maybe it's not season ending, not all ACL tears are the same anymore, but it will change their season on offense.

Initial diagnosis on Packers WR Jordy Nelson is a torn ACL. (via @Rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/K2aOEaPLNe

— NFL (@NFL) August 23, 2015

There's no doubt that his loss would hurt them, but they've partially been here before, playing a partial season without Nelson. In 2012, he missed several games because of a hamstring injury, and QB Aaron Rodgers's stats...looked about the same in 2012 as they did in 2014. Here's how they overcame his absences and here's one big difference.

WR Randall Cobb and WR James Jones. These two took over as the Packers's leading receivers in 2012 without Nelson. Cobb's still in town doing his thing, and while Jones is gone, WR Davante Adams is expected to do more in 2015 and can take over Jones's role. Now the Packers still did get some healthy games from Nelson, WR Greg Jennings, and TE Jermichael Finley, and the rest of the 2015 receiving core (Will Montgomery, Jeff Janis, and Andrew Quarless/Richard Rodgers) isn't at those players' 2012 levels. If Aaron Rodgers can coax two 60 reception, 600 yards seasons out of two of those players, they won't be too far off of their 2012 pace in 2015.

RB Eddie Lacy. While the receiver depth in 2015 isn't as strong as it was in 2012, the Packers didn't have a running game in 2012. That season, RB Alex Green was their leading rusher, and his 2012 performance makes their decision to draft Lacy in 2013 even more obvious in hindsight.

As for the rest of the preseason game, it was disappointing to allow 15 unanswered points to end it and lose (even it was the preseason) and there were a couple of culprits:

QB Brett Hundley. He looked good against the Patriots, and looked like a confused rookie against the Steelers. He'll get a couple more chances in their last preseason games to get some on-field experience before he spends most of the regular season on the inactive portion of the 53-man roster.

LT/RT Don Barclay. After a bad game against the Patriots, he was even worse against the Steelers. He got to play 1st team LT while David Bakhtiari is out with a knee injury and he allowed multiple sacks, including the safety while Rodgers was still in at QB and the hit on Scott Tolzien that knocked him out of the game with concussion symptoms. The bigger problem is that they don't have an obvious second choice to replace Barclay. OL JC Tretter played some tackle (poorly) last season, though I haven't seen him lined up at tackle once this preseason, and he's probably the next best in-house option.

Backup and rookie cornerbacks. While CB LaDarius Gunter continues to look like another undrafted CB gem from the U (following in Sam Shields's footsteps) and rookie 1st round CB Damarious Randall had an INT, rookie 2nd round CB Quinten Rollins struggled and so did a number of backups. With the exception of Rollins, none of these DBs should have been expected to make anything other than the practice squad, so it's not exactly the biggest concern.

Penalties. Especially the roughing the passer and punter 4th quarter penalties that helped the Steelers come back. Again, these penalties were committed by players that weren't expected to make the team, so it's not a big problem.

Green Bay Packers Week 1 Preview

Below is a sponsored post about the questionable decision to rely on QB Jay Cutler as your fantasy quarterback in 2015 and how every Packer receiver and back is a great fantasy option. Should Lacy be every draft's top overall pick? I'm also all-in on WR Davante Adams as a solid fantasy option this season. The Packers's defense might be pretty good if one of their rookie cornerbacks can quickly become an interception machine.

Football season is officially upon us, as teams have reported to training camp in preparation for the 2015 schedule. This is a time for optimism, as just about every team in the NFL feels like they have a chance to make the playoffs. However, one team feeling especially confident is the Green Bay Packers. It all starts with a week one match up against the Chicago Bears. On paper, this should be a victory for Green Bay even on the road. Will they be able to get off to a hot start before the big week 2 matchup at home against Seattle?

The Chicago Bears had obvious struggles last year all season long. After deciding to bring back Jay Cutler, he did not really live up to expectations. Some people have him as one of their fantasy football sleeper picks 2015, but it just seems a bit too risky to rely on him in the passing game. Chicago did give him a new weapon in Kevin White, but he is already going through some injury issues in training camp. As of right now, no one even knows when he will be able to contribute in what would be his first NFL game.

On defense, Chicago seems pretty lost as well. They should be somewhat improved from last year, but that isn’t saying much. They were one of the worst teams in the NFL on that side of the ball, and Green Bay made them pay in the two matchups last year. Scoring a combined 93 points, the Packers were simply unstoppable. Most of key players on offense return for Green Bay in 2015, but they need to remember that this is a new year. Everyone is well aware of what Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and the rest of the offense can do, so Chicago will have some sort of plan to limit them. They will also be a bit motivated since this is the first week of the season and they were embarrassed twice by the Packers in 2014.

Losing by a combined 62 points can definitely motivate a team to try to lay it all on the line to make a statement win in week one. As much as Chicago will be trying, it just doesn’t appear as though they have the talent to beat Green Bay right now. They did make some moves that should improve this team in 2015, but they aren’t a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2015 like the Packers. Green Bay could be looking ahead slightly to Seattle, but that will only keep the game close. The Packers win, but it isn’t nearly as easy as last year. Look for a win by one, maybe two touchdowns to kick off the year.