Tuesday, April 26, 2016

2016 NFL Draft: Looking at the Positions Where The Packers Need Players

With nine draft picks, seven rounds plus two compensatory picks in the 4th round, the Green Bay Packers are set to add depth at multiple positions, though no position is exactly barren of talent. Typically GM Ted Thompson spreads out his selections across every position, though sometimes he does load up at a specific one (CB in 2015, WR in 2014).

This year, their greatest need is at linebacker, mostly inside but outside too, followed by their defensive line. They could use another cornerback. What these positions have in common is that they've lost starters at them (CB Casey Hayward, NT B.J. Raji, LBs Nate Palmer and Mike Neal) and they will be missing players to suspension (DT Mike Pennel, B Demetri Goodson). Another position that could use some more depth is their offensive line, where injuries were a major problem last season and Don Barclay and JC Tretter both showed their limitations, though its unlikely they'd use another high draft choice on either an offensive lineman or defensive back.

The problem at linebacker is that after Alabama's ILB Reggie Ragland (who should be long gone by the time the Packers are on the clock), the draft is very thin at inside linebacker. While selecting an outside linebacker in the 1st round would hardly be a wasted selection, it would probably prevent them from moving LB Clay Matthews back outside, so it doesn't seem like an outside backer would be their preference.

They might even consider trading down, if the mock drafts are true that the Packers are interested in a defensive lineman, because that's a deep position in the draft and they could probably get a quality DT anywhere in the 2nd round. A couple of quarterback needy teams might be looking to trade into the late 1st round:
If they do find themselves with multiple 2nd round picks (after trading out of the 1st round), in addition to drafting a defensive lineman, they might also consider selecting another wide receiver. While WR Jordy Nelson is back and they have a number of young receiving options already, most of their young wide receivers played poorly last season. WR Davante Adams was pretty much a disaster last season and things weren't much better for either WR Jeff Janis or WR Jared Abbrederis, who both showed promise but also received negative DYAR ratings from Football Outsiders. It's very rare to have one of Aaron Rodgers's receivers score a negative DYAR, and it was the first time that three of them did it in a single season. If a receiver has a high draft grade and he's available in the 2nd round, I'd have to think they'd seriously consider it.

It's also a deep position with 10 wide receivers currently ranked in the Top 80 players according to CBS Sports (all 1st or 2nd round grades). One interesting receiver is Oklahoma's Sterling Shepard, because of his "quickness and balance to change directions in a flash" along with his good hands. If he was 6-2, 220 lbs. he'd probably be talked about as a Top 10 pick, but at 5-10, 194 lbs. he's about the same size as WR Randall Cobb and he'll probably be drafted in about the same spot (late 2nd round). The Packers need help on defense but they have to make sure the offense is better next season too.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Packers Sign Two Players: OL Don Barclay and LB Lerentee McCray

The Green Bay Packers do occasionally sign street free agents to minimum contracts (former Giants DB Kyle Sebetic was signed in 2015, and he spent the year bouncing on-and-off the Packers' roster). Sebetic wasn't a very interesting signing, it's not a good sign when the DB starved Giants let you walk, but this year is different.
While Barclay had some good moments pre-ACL injury, he was a disaster last season. He reportedly received zero guaranteed money, so it's worth taking a look at him this offseason to see if he looks better in his second season back, but I don't expect he'll make the team in 2016.

However McCray is an interesting signing. He was undrafted out of Florida in 2013, likely due to a shoulder injury he suffered his senior season, and he was signed by the Broncos. He wasn't tendered a contract in March as a restricted free agent and the Packers signed him for one-year and $800,000. The Broncos have a lot of talent at outside linebacker and McCray was at the bottom of their depth chart, so I can understand why the Broncos wouldn't tender him at around $1.7 million when he's unlikely to do more than play on special teams. But Bronco fans liked what they saw of him, in limited action:
Lerentee McCray is the guy in the unit that easily gets forgotten on the depth chart, but honestly I've been impressed with him as well. He's got that "playmaker" look to him when he's on the field and with a team as stacked as ours it is unfortunately hard to stand out enough.
We haven't seen enough of it, but I remember in earlier preseasons being pretty darn impressed with his pass rush speed. As a OLB he's got a role that really plays to his strengths.
As good as all of this sounds (a cheap, young playmaker who might have just gotten lost on the Broncos's deep depth chart) there is of course a reason why he's only signing now, on the eve of the draft, and he might have not received any offers from another team.

Injuries. He was hurt often in college, and he missed almost all of training camp last year with a groin injury. McCray didn't receive any guaranteed money, but he received $125,000 in bonuses if he makes the roster and stays on it all season. If he's healthy, he might have a very good shot of receiving those bonuses. If he has another injury, like his groin injury last year, I'd expect the Packers will make him one of the first players released out of camp, especially since there's no dead money involved.

I don't expect McCray's signing will effect their draft plans much, though they might feel less pressure now to draft an extra linebacker later in the draft for depth. McCray effectively slides into Mike Neal's old roster spot, for now, and the Packers still need at least one more inside LB and another outside LB to fill out their roster. And that's just for depth, they could still use a high draft choice on a linebacker to challenge Sam Barrington and/or Jake Ryan inside, and one outside to challenge Nick Perry.

McCray doesn't solve any major offseason problem at linebacker but he's an interesting prospect who could become a part of next season's linebacker rotation, if he can stay healthy.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

The Packers Are A Week Away From Drafting Someone In The First Round

I've been terribly neglectful of the Green Bay Packers 2016 draft plans. GM Ted Thompson just made his annual announcement that he'll draft the best available player but in reality that decision is usually shaped due to need. The idea that the Packers would draft anyone other than a defender to play on the front seven seems unlikely.

They really need an inside linebacker, but only one (Alabama's Reggie Ragland) has a 1st round grade, and he should be long gone by the time they're on the board. Even at outside linebacker, the top three projected players are not expected to be available at No. 27 overall. I hate trading up, but this year I'd love to see them trade up for Ragland, if he was available in the early 20s. With two compensatory 4th round picks in hand, trading a 3rd and their own 4th to move up several spots would be worth it. Though I doubt it'll happen.
Mel Kiper appears to love Correa but I'm less smitten with a college DE who has to move to outside LB to make it in the NFL. Maybe as a late-round developmental project but not as a reach with their 1st round pick.

There's a lot of love going around for Alabama DT Jarran Reed and Baylor DT Andrew Billings. But I don't feel like the Packers need to draft either one. Despite NT B.J. Raji's kind-of-sort-of retirement, they've re-signed NT Letroy Guion, DT Josh Boyd is returning from injury, and DT Christian Ringo made progress behind the scenes as a rookie on the practice squad. It's not an elite unit, but they have plenty of bodies, which is maybe all that they need. It's a great year for defensive tackles and maybe one of these guys is the best available player, and I'd lean towards Billings, because he's more of a pass rusher than Reed (Billings had 5.5 sacks last year) and versatility would be more important.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Packers Make A Move In Free Agency: Sign TE Jared Cook

I was just writing about the Green Bay Packers' underwhelming 2016 free agent period and they go out and sign TE Jared Cook to a one-year deal that worth $3.6 million only if he reaches certain incentives. While I'm still disappointed they didn't re-sign WR James Jones, Cook brings an element to the offense that's been missing since TE Jermichael Finley retired.
The deep ball down the seam is one thing, but he'll be a difficult match-up in the middle of the field because he's too big for slot cornerbacks and too quick for most linebackers. He's been a disappointment with both the Titans and Rams over the last several seasons, but he's still under 30 and he's never played alongside a good NFL quarterback. Arguably the best QB he's ever played with was Matt Hasselbeck in 2011. Now he'll get a one-year prove-it contract while catching passes from a two-time MVP. There's nothing but upside for both the team and player.

And once again GM Ted Thompson shows the NFL how free agency is done. It's crazy that teams can't first meet with players signed right at the start of free agency. The Packers waited out the initial frenzy and then scheduled a visit with Cook to get to know a player, which was a very good idea because Cook's underperformed in the past and they probably didn't know what he'd be like in the locker room. They gave him a couple weeks to figure out his options and let him discover that the Packers were his best choice, and they acquire a player at a fraction of the price that a similar player (TE Coby Fleener) signed for with the Saints.

As a bonus, signing Cook won't cost the Packers any compensatory draft picks because the Rams released Cook and players released by their former teams don't count in the calculation. The Packers had cap room available to sign another player, and they got a younger player with upside on an affordable one-year deal. There's nothing not to like here.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Recapping The Packers 2016 Free Agent Period

The NFL free agent period is rarely an exciting time for GM Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers, and 2016 has been no exception. Extending DT Mike Daniels was the most important task they could have accomplished, and they did it back in 2015, but I'm still left more disappointed than usual. There were some notable free agent departures and they'll be looking to find replacements, and depth, at those positions in April's draft.
WR James Jones. Maybe Jones's agent was talking about a $4 million per season Jermaine Kearse type contract, which I would never expect them (nor should they) agree to. But Jones signed for under $1 million twice last season (first with the Giants and then the Packers) so he's probably not looking for a big deal. He finished 2015 as the 20th best receiver in the NFL according to Football Outsiders and he was the team's best receiver by a mile, so asking him to return in 2016 as a $1 million insurance policy looked like a no-brainer, even if he loses the battle in camp this summer to WR Jeff Janis and/or Jared Abbrederis. Yes, WR Jordy Nelson will be back, Janis and Abbrederis should continue to improve, and Jones might not have been necessary. But he was absolutely necessary in 2015 and he wouldn't have broken the bank. I'm also not mentioning WR Davante Adams, who the team appears to have faith in, though I don't. I'd have made re-signing Jones a priority if he's still available in the $1 million range.

DTs B.J. Raji, Letroy Guion, and Mike Pennel. Pennel wasn't a free agent but his upcoming four game suspension should factor into their 2016 plans. But I don't think they expected Raji to walk away from football. Mike McCarthy thinks Raji will return some day but I'm less sure about it because football doesn't seem to be the most important thing in his life. Good for him, but that won't help the Packers much in 2016. That leaves the middle of their line anchored by Guion and Daniels, and a couple other guys who've never played meaningful NFL snaps. DT Josh Boyd will also return, but he was never very good and he's now coming off a season ending injury. I'm worried that some teams will be able to run right over the defense next season.

LB Mike Neal. The Packers want to move LB Clay Matthews back outside next season and they did re-sign LB Nick Perry, so this seems like a good time to let Neal find another NFL home. I've never been his biggest fan so I'm glad they're looking to find someone better than him. But he was 5th on the team with 734 defensive snaps last season so they have to replace him with somebody, and I have no idea who that somebody will be. LB Sam Barrington will return but you never know what a player is like after a season ending injury. LBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas should continue to improve while platooning as a run stuffing and pass covering inside linebacker combo. Also, former disappointments LB Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford remain on the roster. The Packers have a lot of draft choices in the upcoming draft and they're sure to draft at least one linebacker, but they haven't had the best track record of developing inside linebackers. The loss of Raji and Pennel up front, along with Matthews moving back outside from inside, has left the middle of their defense looking like a giant question mark heading into 2016.

CB Casey Hayward. The Packers really didn't need Hayward anymore. The Chargers are paying him $5 million per season starting in 2016 and he might have been challenged for playing time with the Packers by CB Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Also, former 5th round pick CB Demetri Goodson is in the mix. But letting a solid player like Hayward go for only a future 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick seems like a poor value. Hayward is a good player now, and that future draft choice is only maybe a good player someday. They've given up something without getting enough back, while at the same time the defense is taking a step back at tackle and inside linebacker.

I'm just not feeling the power of young players when a few of them disappointed last season at key positions like receiver and linebacker. That's the way the Packers work and free agency isn't the answer for most teams, but it's still left me underwhelmed with their offseason plans while I wait for them to re-load in the upcoming draft.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

Tolzien To Colts, Hundley To No. 2, and Two More 4th Round Picks

The 2015 preseason featured three of the better backup quarterback auditions I've seen in any preseason for the Green Bay Packers. The offense scored points with either QB Scott Tolzien or QB Brett Hundley under center, and Hundley's accuracy and athleticism stood out. But Hundley hasn't played in a football game in several months, so I wasn't sure if the Packers were ready to part with Tolzien. But apparently they are, and it's probably a good decision because Hundley looked ready to play last preseason.
I can't recall another tweet from the Packers official twitter account when a free agent leaves Green Bay. Apparently Tolzien was well well liked within the organization and they're wishing him well.

It was also reported that they received two fourth round draft choices for losing CB Tramon Williams and CB Davon House to free agency last year. I'd have been supportive if they had re-signed either of them last season, but to gain two 4th round draft picks is very sweet. I doubt the Packers could have traded either one of them for a selection that high, had they still been under contract.

Friday, March 11, 2016

It's Depressing To See The Packers Re-Sign LB Nick Perry

It's important not to get swept up in NFL's free agency, watching it as some teams instantly transform themselves with major signings or departures. It's usually fool's gold, most teams will regret half of these contracts a year from now, and they'll be looking to dump their new players just like the Eagles did with CB Byron Maxwell. Or RB DeMarco Murray, for anything they can get.

So re-signing your own players at a reasonable price is a good way to go.
And there's nothing wrong with re-signing Perry. He wasn't bad last season and their thin linebacking corps looks even worse now that they've given up on Andy Mulumba, so keeping some of their depth from last season is important. And he's a great value signing. A one-year deal comes with no possibility of dead money in a future year (unless he can't even make the team out of training camp, which seems highly unlikely) and they saved themselves a couple million by declining his 5th-year option at $7.75 million and re-signing him for $5 million. They let him test the market, he found little (none?) interest, and they were willing to give him another chance.

But this is a really depressing move. Perry's not a bust, but he's been a disappointment. He's struggled to stay healthy, he's struggled to earn playing time, and his pass rushing skills vanished last season. He does nothing to make them any better next season, unless he magically puts it all together in 2016. I have no idea what they have in mind for him next season after he barely played in 2015 while they gave his potential playing time to Mike Neal, who did little to earn it either. $5 million from GM Ted Thompson for a backup seems rich for him, so I'm expecting they're going to use Perry as a starter next season (assuming Clay Matthews remains inside). But if he wasn't good enough to start in 2015 then what's changed now?

Maybe this is an area they plan on focusing on in the draft, and they just needed a one-year starter they could rely on for one season. They've been good enough over the past two seasons to hang with the top two-through-five teams in the NFC, so maybe trying to keep the current team together as best they can and hope it all comes together in 2016 is their plan. But it's not an exciting one.

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

NFL Free Agency Opens With The Usual Silence From The Packers

UPDATE: Actually it looks like the Bears had one of the best free agent signings with Trevathan. Signing a linebacker for $6 million per season who can stay on the field for every down is a good move. He might have been more motivated to work with the Bears and his old HC John Fox than he would have been with the Packers.

It also looks Forte signed for less than I expected but even at $4 million per season, if the Packers were going to make one splash in free agency, I'd rather they spent it on a linebacker or to re-sign Hayward over a backup running back.

Do you remember the good old days of 2014 when GM Ted Thompson made a splash in free agency? The past is in the past, and so far the Packers have only made one free agent move this week.
At first, it didn't seem like a good idea to give a backup a two-year deal, but the guaranteed money isn't much and he's currently the lowest paid player on the roster who isn't still playing under his rookie contract. They trusted Taylor to start two games last season, and they obviously liked what they saw. Offensive line depth around the NFL is very shallow, once you get beyond every team's top six lineman your probably looking at a player who's a future revolving door, so keeping a player who's good enough to start is valuable.

The only big name free agent that seemed to be rumored to have drawn any interest from the Packers was RB Matt Forte, but he's going to the Big Apple.
That should put Forte's new deal at around $6 million per season. That's not crazy money, Forte wouldn't be in the top 10 cap charges on the Packers' 2016 roster, but adding him would be a luxury if they're planning on sticking with RB Eddie Lacy as the starter next season. The Packers always carry forward some cap space into the next season, so a hypothetical Forte signing would probably only leave the Packers with about $5 million of cap space they'd like to use. That might not even be enough to re-sign NT B.J. Raji and would end any hope of a free agent upgrade at inside linebacker, and those are two positions I'd rather see upgraded before adding an extra running back. Plus, they'd be giving up on the chance to re-sign CB Casey Hayward (which might not be happening anyway).

Unfortunately I don't know who that magical inside linebacker might be that they can use their free agent dollars on. ILB Danny Trevathan is great but he's going to get overpaid by the Bears. After Trevathan, the free agent class features a number of veterans you'd hope could stay healthy (Derrick Johnson, Stephen Tulloch) or you hope can rebound from a disappointing season(s) (Bruce Carter). So basically no one that would look like a difference maker.

So the silence that began the 2016 free agent period will probably continue for a while.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Hey Quarterback, Does Hand Size Really Matter?

Among quarterback, one advantage that Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have/had over their peers is that they've got big hands. As you might expect, it helps in bad weather games to be able to grip the football, and Rodgers has said that he's been blessed with some pretty big hands.

This all came up recently at the NFL combine because Cal's QB Jared Goff could be the first quarterback drafted in April and there were concerns before he measured up with nine-inch hands. This might have been specific to Goff because he notably was benched during a 2013 game (sheets of rain were coming down) because he couldn't hold onto the football. So having big hands that grip a football probably helps avoid fumbles and it might even help with QB accuracy.

But it doesn't help with the other 99 things a quarterback has to do like read defenses, checkdown receivers at the right times, audibles, leadership, etc. etc., so it isn't a sign that someone is going to be great just because he has meat hooks. But it also looks like you can't have average size hands and expect to be a starting NFL quarterback.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

How The Packers Defensive Line Will Look Next Season Without Mike Pennel

It was announced last week that the Green Bay Packers will be without DT Mike Pennel for at least the first four games of the 2016 season because he violated the NFL's substance abuse program.
After the defense put together a terrible 2013 season, Mike McCarthy made some changes that brought more versatility to the group. One change was the departure of NT Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji was switched from end to NT. They also brought in free agents Letroy Guion and Julius Peppers, and Peppers in particular brought a lot more versatility with him. Often during that 2013 season, the Packers looked slow up front when Raji and Pickett were lined up together, and those changes gave the defense more options.

In 2015, Raji and Pennel played on 444 and 287 snaps, respectively, and they rarely lined up together, so the defense only had one tackle at least 30% of the time. While the NT isn't very important to their defense, they still need a couple of big bodies for the goal line.

With Datone Jones likely moving to outside linebacker next season, it seems like the Packers have abandoned the idea of having any defensive ends at all. Apparently it's all tackles and outside linebackers going forward. That would fit with their goal of versatility because their linebackers can be defensive ends on passing downs, effectively using a 4-3 defensive scheme.

They probably need only four defensive tackles next season. Daniels and Guion have already been re-signed, and Pennel should return after his suspension (assuming he makes the team). DT Josh Boyd should be healthy after a season ending ankle injury, though he's never been very good, and rookie DT Christian Ringo made a "big-time" jump last season. Re-signing Raji might push Boyd or Ringo out of their plans, or maybe Guion will replace Raji since Guion's legal problems appear to be over. In any case, it doesn't look like they have a need for an outside free agent or high draft choice. Maybe a late draft choice like USC's Antwaun Woods could provide some depth. Woods might be a good fit because he doesn't have a history of injuries and he hustles, and he could play the same role that Ringo did last season on the practice squad.

While Pennel's suspension doesn't help them next season, it doesn't look like they'll have to adjust their offseason plans in free agency or the draft to make up for his absence either.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The Packers Shouldn't Be Tripping Over Themselves To Re-Sign Their Defensive Free Agents, Except...

The Packers have already re-signed and extended two potential free agent defensive lineman, but there are other defenders who played significant roles in 2015 that could become unrestricted free agents next month.
Player PositionAge PFF Grade 2015 Snaps
Casey Hayward CB 26 5.2 1020
Mike Neal LB 28 -12.7 822
Nick Perry LB 25 3.1 365
B.J. Raji NT 29 -4.6 472
Sean Richardson S 26 -0.8 98
And of those players, there's only one that'll draw significant attention in free agency.
I'm a fan of CB Casey Hayward. Looking only at conventional stats, he underwhelmed with no interceptions and only 7 pass defenses in 2015. But that's a sign that teams don't throw at him despite him being on the field all the time (see 1020 snaps in 2015 above), and the advance stats like him, having earned a grade of 5.2 from Pro Football Focus last season. Maybe he wasn't targeted because the Packers relied heavily on two rookie cornerbacks last season, and most teams went after the rookies instead, but this wasn't Hayward's first good season. He's been a reliable player ever since he was drafted in 2012, and other teams are going to notice. While teams are burned badly by free agent cornerbacks every year, they always seem to spend irrationally every March. I'm sure GM Ted Thompson will make Hayward an offer but I think Hayward will get more from another cornerback desperate team.

This is LB Mike Neal's second run through unrestricted free agency. He drew little interest back in 2014 and he hasn't done anything to improve his worth since then. But he shouldn't cost too much and the Packers might prefer the limited player they know (see Guion, Letroy) rather than the unknown player they'd have to find to replace him. It's not important to re-sign him but I won't be upset if they do.

While LB Nick Perry is the only defender other than Hayward listed here with a positive PFF grade, his positive grade was from his run support, not his pass rush. The irony is that Perry entered the NFL with a reputation as a great pass rusher at USC and a complete unknown as a run defender. He's obviously worked hard to improve the weakest part of his game. Unfortunately his best skill (pass rush) has either stalled or vanished last season. The Packers declined his fifth-year option last year and he didn't do much to prove them wrong. Whether it was due to injuries or a lack of trust, the former 1st round pick only logged 365 snaps at outside linebacker when there wasn't any serious competition blocking his path to more playing time. I would guess that the Packers might be willing to give him a one-year contract to provide depth, but maybe another team will be more aggressive on giving him a fresh start and seeing if they can find the talent that made him a top prospect.

Like Neal, this is not NT B.J. Raji's first go around as an unrestricted free agent, and he's drawn little interest from other teams in the past. He didn't do much to stand out last season, but if they don't re-sign him then they'll absolutely have to find someone else like him. With $23 million of room available under the cap, there's no reason to go cheap on the defensive line. While Raji could be replaced, his position needs to be filled, and only the Jets's NT Damon Harrison is clearly a better free agent who might be available. GM Ted Thompson will spend for a star player but Harrison doesn't look like that type of player. The Packers know what they've got with Raji as a run stuffer (even if he's becoming a bit injury prone) and that's probably better than spinning the draft roulette wheel.

Unfortunately this is probably the end of DB Sean Richardson's career.

In the end, other than Hayward (the Packers have depth at CB if he leaves) they should probably push to re-sign Neal, Perry and Raji because they should be affordable and they'd leave holes on the roster if they departed. And the Packers already need to add another inside linebacker (or two) and need more depth at every offensive skill position. This team is good enough now to win a championship and they should try and keep it all together, as best as they can.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

The Packers Re-Signed Letroy Guion For Reasons...

UPDATE: The contract only has $500K in guaranteed money, which was probably something Guion had to do because of his past history of arrest and suspension. It still doesn't change the fact that the Packers are counting on him in 2016 because they have few in-house options. But at least if he is a bust next season, then they can move on from him at little cost.

This free agent period has already been a success for the Green Bay Packers because they re-signed DT Mike Daniels back in December. His possible departure was the only move that would make or break them. He has been one of their best draft picks, but overall the Packers have done a terrible job of drafting defensive tackles in recent years.

This seems to be a blind spot for GM Ted Thompson, who got off to a bad start by selecting Justin Harrell in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, and followed that up with some other notably misses; such as Jerel Worthy in 2012 and Khyri Thornton in 2014. His only other success was B.J. Raji, who's had an up-and-down career and might be leaving in free agency this offseason.

That lack of depth at defensive tackle explains why Letroy Guion was one of the few outside free agents they've signed in recent years, and explains why he'd get a three-year, $4 million per season contract.
In a bubble, there's no great reason to re-sign Guion. He was arrested for felony possession this time last year and was suspended for three games. While he wasn't bad in 2015, he wasn't great either, and Walter Football gave this signing a C grade (a lot of money for an OK rotational lineman). But he's a run stuffer, and GM Ted Thompson has placed somewhat of a premium on veteran run stuffers (he paid NT Ryan Pickett a lot of money over his Packer career).

But it also goes to show that the Packers don't have a lot of depth at DT. Mike Pennel has been a pleasant surprise as an undrafted free agent, and Josh Boyd should return from his broken ankle, but that's all they currently have to play alongside Daniels next season. The Packers rotate their defensive lineman a lot and don't always have a defensive tackle on the field, but they do need more players than just those four. Even if B.J. Raji is also re-signed, they'll still probably draft a defensive tackle at some point next April (though it might turn out to be another bust).

So keeping the player you know, who can do what you need him to do, even if the price is a little steep, makes sense. The unfortunate bit is that the Packers haven't done well drafting defensive tackles in the past, which is why they needed him in the first place. And overpaying Guion now might explain why they aren't as aggressive later in free agency.

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Will Julius Peppers Play For The Packers In 2016?

The Green Bay Packers should be very happy to have LB Julius Peppers back in 2016. Despite his recent Pro Bowl appearance, Peppers didn't have as much impact in 2015 as he did in 2014 but it's hard to see that as the sign of his imminent decline.

While his sack total was up (10.5 in 2015 from 7 in 2014) several other stats were down, but his 2014 and 2015 seasons are both comparable to past seasons stretching back to his time with the Panthers and Bears. His career stats are about as consistent from season-to-season as any player you're likely to find, and he's only missed 2 games since 2002! Though he just turned 36 years old, an age that should place major question marks on any non-QB/non-kicker, Peppers is an amazing, consistent star who is an exception to those rules.

So the fact that Adam Schefter wrote a line in his most recent column that Peppers may have already played his final NFL game is big concern.
It's a little surprising to read that from Schefter when there was a different report earlier this week suggesting that Peppers would play again in 2016 even if the Packers release him.

Just looking at Peppers by himself, he's a still a great player and worth the $8 million cap charge he'll cost next season. The lone advantage in releasing him now would be to use that cap space on a younger player in free agency, but I generally hate free agency and his release would also cost them a $2.5 million cap charge in dead money. The Packers currently have around $21 million in cap space so creating cap space is not a big need.

But when you look at the state of the roster without Peppers, his release would leave their roster without any quality linebackers other than Clay Matthews. Nick Perry and Mike Neal are both unrestricted free agents, and neither one is a priority to re-sign. Who knows how Sam Barrington will be after missing almost the entire 2015 season with injury. Some combination of Jake Ryan, Joe Thomas and Nate Palmer might be useful as a backup (maybe Ryan has potential next season as a starter) but that's a thin bench. Pro Football Focus listed linebacker as the Packers' number one need this offseason, and despite the recent report that coach Mike McCarthy is "fed-up" with the Packers' approach in free agency, it's unlikely that GM Ted Thompson will be aggressive in that area. It'll be important to keep valuable linebackers like Peppers, and draft a couple more options this April too.

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

T.J. Lang Had His Best Season While Playing With Two Bad Shoulders

This might not be the last story we read this offseason about a Green Bay Packer offensive lineman who is having surgery, every starting offensive lineman missed at least some time last season with an injury, but today's its about RG T.J. Lang.
The only criticism that can be leveled against Lang this season is that he missed one game because of injury. Otherwise he was one of the team's best players. This season, he received the highest grade of his career from Pro Football Focus, who also graded him as the 4th best guard overall last season (just behind Zack Martin of the Cowboys and just ahead of his teammate Josh Sitton).

He'll have a reasonable $6.1 million cap charge next season, his final one before he can become a free agent in 2017. Next season will be his eight NFL season and GM Ted Thompson isn't known for re-signing players into their 30s (Lang will turn 30 during the 2017 season), and the wear-and-tear is starting to show, though Lang has only missed two starts in the past five seasons. It'll be interesting to watch how he recovers and plays next season.

Monday, February 01, 2016

Aaron Rodgers Had Minor Knee Surgery

After the Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins in the playoff Wild Card game, I looked back through the injury report to see when QB Aaron Rodgers had last been listed because something was wrong with him. Yes, his receivers were playing poorly and his offensive line was a disaster (at times) but he was also missing throws that he previously didn't miss. Against the Redskins, after completing his first attempt to WR James Jones, he was incomplete on his next seven attempts. Missing seven straight pass attempts for an NFL QB is rare these days, and I can't ever remember Rodgers going through such a bad streak. I thought he must still be playing through that right shoulder injury, though it hadn't been listed in weeks.

Now all teams stink at disclosing injuries, Mike Florio's been on them about this for years, and it looks like the Packers were part of the club. Maybe it was the combination of a sore shoulder and knee that messed up his accuracy, but his injured knee had to be the main suspect if it required surgery shortly after the end of the season.
The good news is that this doesn't seem to be a big deal. He'll be fully recovered and participating in the team's offseason program when it starts in April. The bad news is that this is the third season in a row where a mid-season injury (2013-collarbone, 2014-calf, 2015-knee/shoulder) took away a lot of what makes Aaron Rodgers a great quarterback. And, unfortunately, this is something that should be expected to continue each season now that he's over age 30 (he turned 32 in December).

Monday, January 25, 2016

About Mike McCarthy Being "Fed Up" With GM Ted Thompson

There were a few times last season when I wondered if it would have helped if the Green Bay Packers had targeted a free agent or two, on a veteran's minimum contract, who might have helped out at some positions. Notably, the Arizona Cardinals had some success with low-priced veterans like RB Chris Johnson and DE Dwight Freeney in 2015. Apparently Bob McGinn has learned that coach Mike McCarthy was wondering the same thing.
It's hard to get too worked up over this report because in some ways it's old news. It reminds me of when almost everyone was upset that Thompson didn't pull the trigger in 2010 on a trade for RB Marshawn Lynch. Thompson turned out to be right in the sense that the Packers didn't need Lynch that season to win the Super Bowl, but Lynch would have still been worth whatever it would have taken to acquire him (the Bills gave up a 4th and a 5th round pick for him).

I wouldn't be surprised if McCarthy is looking for new answers after another playoff loss on the final play of the game. Having a veteran TE, a veteran DB, or a veteran ILB (instead of rotating Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas Jr.) might have made a small difference, but it could have turned one or two close losses this season into wins. Having no reliable inside LB other than Clay Matthews might have been his biggest regret because Bob McGinn specifically mentions the availability of ILB Mason Foster, who signed with the Redskins.

On the other hand, the NFL free agent market is a minefield. A healthy free agent who might be an average NFL player can command a bust-worthy multi-year contract while the true superstar who hits the market will get a cap crushing deal.

Typically the players who receiver one-year contracts aren't good or haven't been healthy for a while. Foster's a minor success story but other teams handed out one-year contracts to former Packer ILBs Desmond Bishop (released in early September) and Jamari Lattimore (played only on special teams for the Jets) without finding a starting caliber ILB. The Jets did well with ILB Erin Henderson, who could only get a one-year deal after a string of drinking and driving arrests ended his Vikings career, but obviously not every player with a checkered past is able to put it behind them. The Vikings signed Casey Matthews to compete at inside LB but he was hurt before the season even began. Signing a veteran on a one-year contract is much more likely to be a bust than even a mild success.

It's an odd time for this story to come out, on one hand, because this is the season that the Packers did sign WR James Jones to a one-year contract after his release from the Giants, and WR Jordy Nelson was lost for the year. I'm not sure any team in the NFL this season had a better one-year, unrestricted free agent signing than Jones. It's too bad he couldn't have played inside linebacker too.

McCarthy is used to having a deep bench to call on. The lack of depth at offensive tackle and inside linebacker were obvious, and the failure of WR Davante Adams to develop was disappointing, but these things don't always work out. The big takeaway for me in from Bob McGinn's article is that the Packers have really high standards, and if nothing less than a Super Bowl season is a disappointment, then you feel the same way as coach McCarthy.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Packers Disappoint At Running Back, Tight End, and Two Coaches Pay The Price

It's always hard to move onto the next offseason after the last game of the prior season, but Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy moved on quickly, at least as far as his coaching staff was concerned.
The one thing both coaches had in common; the position players under their wings under-performed during 2015. McCarthy did confirm that he will call the plays next season (it's hard for any boss to give up control) and he said would change the structure of the coaching staff. Maybe there's more changes ahead or maybe the firing of Gash and Fontenot is it. I'm sure he had his reasons for the firings, he hasn't been one to make a lot of changes to his staff every year (and usually not this quickly after the season), but I'm not expecting it'll make a big difference in 2016.

The draft is coming up, in almost 100 days (a lot of draft talk lies ahead...) but first free agency is up next. Usually, if GM Ted Thompson has not re-signed an unrestricted free agents before the end of the season, he doesn't re-sign them. But there's always an exception or two. In the big picture, only four of their unrestricted free agents had a positive score according to Pro Football Focus in 2015 (K Mason Crosby, CB Casey Hayward, LB Nick Perry and WR James Jones) so there is no vital unrestricted free agent that must be re-signed for 2016.

Crosby should be expected back, but he might not be re-signed until March when it's seen what other kickers are earning. Hayward had the highest grade of the four, but he was the 4th highest rated defensive back in 2015, which is a sign that it's a strong unit and maybe not Hayward specifically. He should also be the free agent who attracts the most attention from other teams. Perry had a good grade too but primarily for his run defense (not his pass rushing) which makes him less appealing. They have a bigger need for edge pass rushers than they do for another run defender. Jones obviously had a lot of value in 2015 but he's exactly the type of player that GM Ted Thompson usually lets go in free agency (as he did after the 2013 season). Maybe Jones has so little value to every other team, and the Packers would like the insurance he provides, that a low cost, one-year contract can be worked out.

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Packers Playoff Loss: Still Taking It All In

[UPDATE: While I picked on Hayward below it appears that CB Damarious Randall was to blame for the blown coverage.] CB Casey Hayward is soon to become a free agent. While he's a good player, he seems to make mistakes that might give the front office pause on whether he's a keeper. DE Mike Daniels already got his mid-season extension but unless Hayward isn't in demand (which seems unlikely since CBs have been getting paid in free agency) I don't see the Packers re-signing him. It's plays like the opening one in OT, when WR Larry Fitzgerald deployed a cloaking device and ran right past him, that makes me wonder.
It's been a struggle on offense this season (QB Aaron Rodgers does need a healthy offensive line, which he finally got in the playoffs, and a deep roster of receivers) but these two Hail Mary plays, side-by-side show how he's made up for some of it. It's also interesting that both defenses played it completely different. The Lions took a lot of criticism for defending a series of laterals that never came, instead of the Hail Mary, and they didn't bring much pressure because they were expecting the short pass. The Cardinals, instead, brought the house and got into Rodgers's face immediately, and they only dropped four into coverage. Rodgers spun away from the rush and still managed to throw the pass he needed anyway. Two different defensive schemes to the same scenario, but Rodgers made the result the same.

I'm all for taking risks, and understood why Bruce Arians passed late in the game when he could have run out the clock. If the Cardinals had completed that fade pass to Fitzgerald, then the game was over. But the Cardinals were the favorites and they've been the better team all season, so they could have taken the lower percentage path to victory (and probably won in regulation, if they'd wiped out another 35 seconds). The Packers, on the other hand, could have gone for the two point conversion to end the game before OT. I understand the math and the Packers probably had a better chance of converting then rather than winning in OT, but it's a one-and-done scenario. Instead of giving his team a few chances to make a big play in OT, Mike McCarthy would have gave them just one. Unfortunately, the secondary blew the coverage in their first opportunity to make a play in OT, but McCarthy made the right call for the extra point. He should give his team more than one chance to win, though Bill Barnwell below explains why he thinks McCarthy should have gone for two.

Saturday, January 16, 2016

The Packers' 2015 Season Ends Like The 2014 Season, With An Overtime Loss At An NFC North Opponent, Cardinals Win 26-20

The Green Bay Packers defense gave them a chance in this game, and they didn't let the team down until they allowed two late TD drives which gave the Cardinals the lead in the 4th quarter and then gave them the win in OT. It was better than the offense could do. Outside of a long run by RB Eddie Lacy, the Packers' rushing attack wasn't much of a help. With WR Randall Cobb injured early, and WR James Jones shut out by CB Patrick Peterson, their top two receivers caught zero passes. But three big completions to WR Jeff Janis for two touchdowns gave them just enough offense to force OT. It was a wild ride, starting with a dumb luck, ricochet TD pass to WR Michael Floyd.
Then QB Aaron Rodgers answered with an amazing Hail Mary pass to WR Jeff Janis for the tie.
But a 75 yard pass play to start OT, when the Packers' pass rush doesn't quite get to QB Carson Palmer, ends their season.
It was a great season, and an amazing run considering QB Aaron Rodgers played this game without his expected top 3 receivers (Nelson, Cobb, Adams) and had no passing yards to his best remaining receiver (Jones), but they were so close, just like last season, and you never know when the opportunity might come again.

Friday, January 15, 2016

Packers Need To Dominate In The Air, Not On The Ground

Pro Football Focus is a great resource but I don't agree with them in this week's article previewing the Green Bay Packers playoff game in Arizona that the Packers can win if they run the ball.
The Cardinals have the 2nd best run defense this season according to Football Outsiders, and the Packers haven't shown the ability to consistently run the ball. The Cardinals' strong run defense might be exaggerated because their opponents were forced to throw to keep up with the Cards' offense but the Packers aren't the team to take advantage of it. Injuries to the offensive line and RB Eddie Lacy's ribs have taken all of the steam out of the ground game's engine this season.

One very good point is about QB Aaron Rodgers's accuracy. Bryson Vesnaver wrote at Pro Footbal Focus that Rodgers struggled against Washington without any pressure "completing just 58.6 percent of his passes...when in a clean pocket." I'm spoiled as a Packer fan but Rodgers's accuracy has been below his usual levels this season. He was especially bad early in the game, missing open receivers, but he was much better by the second quarter. But instead of emphasizing the ground game over the passing game, this means that Rodgers has got to get his accuracy back to near perfection. With the offensive line as healthy as it's going to get, the pass protection was at it's best against the Redskins.
It's more likely that Rodgers will have a perfect game than Lacy will shake his 2015 season slump. They'll win by leaning heavily on Aaron Rodgers.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

To Beat The Cardinals; Aaron Rodgers Is Going To Have To Be Great

There's no other way to look at it; the Green Bay Packers are the statistically weakest 2015 team still in the playoffs and they have the hardest road to the Super Bowl.
It's useful to look back at the Packers' 2010 season (2011 playoffs) when they went on a road playoff run and advanced to the Super Bowl. But that was a different team, which never trailed by more than seven points at any time during the 2010 season and might have been the greatest 10-6 team in NFL history. They were the 4th highest rated team of 2010 according to Football Outsiders, and the best remaining team in the NFC after they beat the Eagles that year in the Wild Card game. The 2015 Packers don't have a lot in common with them.

The 2015 Packers' best comparison is the 2012 Ravens, which was the 9th best team of 2012 according to FO, and won the championship behind the arm of QB Joe Flacco. He was OK that regular season (ESPN QBR of 49.2, which was dragged down by two disastrous losses vs. the Texans and Broncos) but he outplayed nearly every statistically measurement during the playoffs (11 TDs and 0 INTs in 4 playoff games). QB Aaron Rodgers has been better during the 2015 regular season in almost every way compared to Flacco v.2012, and he had one of his best games of the season against the Redskins last week. Now he's going to have to do it again while also improving on the lowly 5.83 ypa he had during that Wild Card game.

There's no good way to look back and see any positives from the 38-8 beating the Packers had pasted on them by the Cardinals three weeks ago. The upgrade to Tretter (if Bakhtiari is still out with an ankle injury) over LT Don "revolving door" Barclay will make them much more competitive. While he had a good game against the Redskins, WR Davante Adams has been a problem all season and his MCL injury might provide a boost to the Packers' offense by giving more reps to WR Jared Abbrederis. But those are marginal improvements and not enough to overcome a 30 point difference. The Packers (Rodgers in particular) are going to have to play their best.

The Cardinals are a great team, and they're about as good in 2015 as the Packers were in their 2010 when they were on their way to the Super Bowl, but they're not without their flaws. Rodgers played great against the Redskins because his pass protection was solid. The Cardinals were outstanding at getting after Rodgers three weeks ago, but the benching of Barclay alone makes a big difference and the Cardinals aren't the best at pressuring the QB. They also lost two defensive players to injury over their bye week and were forced to sign LB Jason Babin to provide some depth for Saturday's game. Neither of the two players lost to injury (Okafor and Redding) are defensive cornerstones but it's a sign that the Cardinals don't have much of a pass rush outside of DE Calais Campbell.

There's no statistical advantage the Packers are bringing to their next playoff game; they're going to have to play their best game of the season if they want to beat the Cardinals on Saturday.

Monday, January 11, 2016

2015 Wild Card: Packers Beat Redskins in D.C. 35-18

The first 17 minutes of their playoff game felt like a lot of recent Green Bay Packer games. The offense couldn't get anything going, and the pass protection was letting QB Aaron Rodgers down (new starting LT JC Tretter was bull rushed for a sack and safety in the 1st quarter). At that point it was Redskins 11, Packers 0, and it should have been even worse if not for a missed extra point and a poor job by WR DeSean Jackson to not reach for a touchdown.

But then the Packers offense scored on their next 5 possessions for 32 points. This touchdown was the point at which I felt like they were going to win.
On offense, what went right was their offensive line. They're probably as healthy as they've been in several weeks and subbing JC Tretter in at left tackle instead of moving Josh Sitton over from left guard finally gave them their best lineup, so long as LT David Bakhtiari is still injured. I wasn't excited to hear that Tretter was starting, he was a minor disaster at tackle in 2014, but that early safety was the only sack, and the Redskins only recorded 2 QB hits, for the game. They had been really good at getting to the quarterback over their last few regular season games. Once the passing game got going, the running lanes opened up (good run blocking led to some huge cutback lanes) and the rout was on.

On defense, it was the Packers pass rush. The Redskins had some success running the ball, but that usually happened when Dom Capers got caught in the wrong defense and had an undersized unit on the field (on QB Kirk Cousins's TD run, the only defender over the interior lineman was DB Micah Hyde). But their offensive line had no answer for the Packers' defensive rush. LBs Nick Perry and Mike Neal have had forgettable regular seasons, but both came up huge in this game. The Redskins were able to get open and beat the Packers' coverage but sacks (and one lost fumble) killed their offense.

This was one of their best overall games of the year, and it came at just the right time. Hopefully their injuries aren't too serious (WR Davante Adams hurt his knee (he said it's only sore) and it's unknown at this time if CB Quinten Rollins has a serious groin injury) and they'll make it back on the short week. Unlike in this game, when they were steamrolled in the opening quarter, they can't get blown away for one quarter and expect to beat the Cardinals. They'll have to play well over the course of an entire game, which isn't something they've done often this season.

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Why The Packers Will Defeat The Redskins; Because of Their Offense

I'll have to admit, I'm having trouble writing about how the Green Bay Packers' offense is going to beat the Redskins. The easy answer is that the Redskins have a mediocre defense (ranked No. 21 overall according to Football Outsiders (19st against the pass, 22nd against the run) and the Packers have the defending MVP at quarterback. The offense will look much better if the starting offensive line (especially LT David Bakhtiari) can play and RB Eddie Lacy can have one of his good games.

However, that's not the reality of this season. Bakhtiari is still struggling with his ankle injury and Lacy has had many more bad games than good. RB James Starks isn't the answer either; the Packers can't run behind their beat up offensive line. The passing game has covered up for the lack of a running game in past seasons by killing defenses with their deep passing game, but that element has vanished this season without WR Jordy Nelson.
Even that 8.19 YPA is low for Rodgers. He was at 8.43 YPA in 2014, and 8.75 in 2013. The big change since those first six games is that WR James Jones isn't fooling as many defenses as he was at the start of the season. He still has his moments but they're not as frequent. Cobb's never been much of a deep threat but according to Pro Football Focus, Cobb caught 3 TDs in 2014 on targets of 20 yards or more, and he's caught zero in 2015. I won't even get into how much of a disappointment WR Davante Adams has been in this regard. The low YPA isn't a sign that Rodgers has turned into a dink-and-dunk passer but that the deep passing game has had such a low percentage of success in 2015.

It would seem like the Packers need to focus on a short passing-high completion percentage game plan. It's not Mike McCarthy's style but they got to get out of 3rd and long situations and win the hidden elements of the game, like field position, and let their very good defense create some short fields after defensive stops and/or turnovers.

But stopping the short passing game is probably the strength of the Redskins' defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Redskins are terrible against No.1 and No. 2 wide receivers but slightly above average against other wide receivers. They're also the 5th best defense against running backs in coverage, so those running back screens don't look like something to use against them. They're not great at covering tight ends but TE Richard Rodgers isn't someone who can really challenge them.

While they will run the ball on occasion, RB Eddie Lacy has only been good in recent games against the Cowboys (who have a terrible run defense) and the Vikings, and Lacy just seems to have the Vikings number. RB James Starks has been even worse lately (4 fumbles over his last 5 games) and his only big game in recent weeks came against the terrible Cowboys, but he seems more likely to have a breakout game than Lacy. Either way, it seems very unlikely that the running game will provide a spark.

My opinion is subject to change depending on the Packers' next opponent, but it looks like the best thing the Packers' offense can do is to keep leaning heavily on Jones and Cobb, as they've been trying to do all season long. The Redskins defense is similar to the Lions, and the passing game (Hail Mary aside) did pretty well against them in two games (as long as they don't try to force feed the ball to Davante Adams). The big difference between those two teams is the Lions can't cover tight ends and Richard Rodgers killed the Lions in both games against them. Despite what I wrote earlier, maybe getting him involved more is the way to go against the Redskins, in addition to leaning heavily on Jones and Cobb.

Sticking to the same offensive schemes that haven't been working all season isn't an inspired game plan, however, that is probably the best way for the Packers' offense to defeat the Redskins on Sunday.

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Why The Packers Will Defeat The Redskins; Because of Their Defense

There's plenty of pessimism surrounding the Green Bay Packers as they enter the playoffs. And looking at their team efficiency ranking at Football Outsiders, it should be expected that the Packers will lose to either the Panthers or Cardinals in Round Two (after beating the lower ranked Redskins next Sunday). But I can see how the Packers will not only beat the Redskins, but how they can beat the other powers (Seahawks, Cardinals, Panthers) and advance to the Super Bowl.

It starts with the defense (and I'll get to the Packers' offense later):
The last time the Packers opened the playoffs on the road (2010 season) it was against the NFC East champion (Eagles), and the Packers featured one of the best pass defenses (6th overall in 2015 according to Football Outsiders vs. 1st overall in 2010). But that's about where the similarity ends. The 2010 Eagles had a good pass offense and an elite rushing attack, while the 2015 Redskins can't run the ball to take advantage of the Packers' average run defense. Their late season winning streak (they won 5 of their last 6) has been because of QB Kirk Cousins, who's been very accurate (69.8 completion percentage on the season) and with only 1 INT in his last 6 games.

And that's the knock on Cousins. Over his last 6 games, the Redskins have played a collection of mediocre to awful pass defenses. The last time they played a quality pass defense was mid-November against the Panthers, and they got clobbered by 28 points. Just as QB Aaron Rodgers has to play better for the Packers to make a playoff run, the Redskins won't win with a bad game from Cousins (the Redskins are 0-4 when he throws 2 INTs in a game this season).

Meanwhile, Cousins hasn't been relying heavily on any one receiver. TE Jordan Reed is his best, but the Packers are ranked No. 4 overall against TEs this season according to Football Outsiders. The Redskins do a number of good receivers (Garcon, Jackson, Crowder) but luckily the Packers have a lot of depth at cornerback to offset that advantage, especially if CB Sam Shields is recovered from his concussion this week.

The Packers defense matches up very well against the Redskins offense, which is why the Packers will beat them on Sunday.

Sunday, January 03, 2016

Packers Lose To The Vikings, 20-13, Will Play Redskins In D.C. on Sunday

Before I get into anything else, a big round of applause for a great game from the Green Bay Packers' defense. Except for a couple big runs from WR Adam Thielen (watch out for the jet sweep, Dom) the Vikings' offense did nothing. RB Adrian Peterson had only 67 yards and QB Teddy Bridgewater passed for 99 yards. That was a dominant performance that usually wins any game that QB Aaron Rodgers starts at quarterback.
Mike McCarthy fixed the Don Barclay problem by putting Barclay on the bench and moving Josh Sitton to left tackle. It wasn't a great performance by Sitton, but DE Everson Griffin is a very good pass rusher and Sitton hasn't played left tackle in maybe ever.

But he didn't fix the WR Davante Adams problem. It took them too long to figure out that their best play on offense is to throw it whoever was being covered by CB Terence Newman. If WR James Jones was being covered by CB Xavier Rhodes, then he wasn't open. WR Randall Cobb was usually double-teamed, and Adams seems to run at defenders instead of away from them. In McCarthy's defense, I'm not sure either Abbrederis or Janis is any better than Adams. Maybe they need to line up with more two tight end sets, or keep lining FB John Kuhn out wide.

It was also painful to watch the running game. It's not an Eddie Lacy problem. The offensive line (injured, playing out of position) isn't getting enough push, or second level blocking, depending on the particular play. James Starks isn't the answer either. However, they're both much better as receivers. After the Packers basically gave up on the running game in the fourth quarter, the offense came to life. But all those pass attempts behind a shaky offensive line also leads to more hits on Rodgers, and more strip sacks returned for touchdowns.

Abandoning the running game next week against the Redskins might work if LT David Bakhtiari can play. He practiced on Friday and was a game time decision against the Vikings. It's not a stretch to expect him back next week, which would allow them to re-shuffle their line and have all five starters together for the first time in a while.

While this loss, coming on the heels of a disastrous loss in Arizona, may make this seem like a lost season already. But they could get their starting offensive line back next week, and their defense has been playing great this season. With a great defense and a great starting quarterback, lots of good things can happen in the playoffs.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Cover Your Eyes: Packers Beaten Badly In Arizona, 38-8

I thought the loss at Denver was going to be their worst loss of 2015, but the Green Bay Packers one upped themselves with a terrible loss in Arizona. Still, it's good to remember that they've already made the playoffs and knocking the Cardinals out of the No. 2 playoff spot was always a long shot.

The Cardinals overall have been a better team this season, but the Packers can make themselves a whole lot better if they could get their offensive lineman back healthy. That would make them a much, much better team:
The Packers have asked a lot of backup LT/RT Don Barclay this season, and he's been a complete disaster. The former undrafted player had some good moments in 2012 and 2013, but those are long gone. On the play above, he was a revolving door for veteran DE Dwight Freeney, who had been looking for an NFL job for months before the Cardinals finally called him in October, and he had three sacks on Sunday. Barclay has been a lot worse than former 1st round OT Derek Sherrod, who was so bad in 2014 that he was cut mid-season though he only had played in a couple games. If the Packers had any other decent backup tackle, Barclay would have probably been released mid-season too. They have to go with someone other than Barclay for the rest of the season, to at least give themselves a chance.

In Barclay's slight defense, the entire line was a disaster. DE Calais Campbell was a nightmare in the middle (he drove LG Josh Sitton back on a play in the first quarter that led to a sack). RT Bryan Bulaga was having a bad day too until he was sidelined with an ankle injury.

The good news is that none of the injuries to their starting offensive lineman are serious. But they won't be back to full health before the playoffs start either. If Sitton and Lang can continue to play next week while LT David Bakhtiari and Bulaga (and Corey Linsley too) rest, maybe they'll be in good enough shape for a playoff run. But then Mike McCarthy is going to have to work out a different game plan to account for a couple of missing lineman against the Vikings.

As for the rest of the team, there's one other personnel move that would help; it's time to bench WR Davante Adams. I've been all for giving him another chance this season but bad things seem to happen when he's in the game. He spends too much time dropping passes and running poor routes with only the occasional big play to make up for it. He should get another chance to prove himself next preseason, after another off-season of work and practice, but right now they should be giving their other receivers more playing time. WR Jared Abbrederis is healthy now and he's had the entire season to get used to the offense, after barely playing at all last season or this preseason because of injuries. While I'm not his biggest fan, WR Jeff Janis can't be much worse than Adams at this point.

While the offense might be the weakest it's been since Aaron Rodgers became the starting QB, it can be a lot better with those couple moves. Meanwhile, the defense and special teams are about as good as they've been at any time over the past several seasons, though Dom Capers has to improve a pass rush that disappeared against the Cardinals after two early sacks. They have to focus right now on getting as healthy as they can over the next two weeks, and make a couple moves on the offensive side of the ball (Barclay and Adams) so that this was their last loss of the season.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Packers Clinch Playoff Berth, and Then Defeat The Raiders in Oakland, 30-20

Shortly after the Packers' game started in Oakland, the Giants came up short of an amazing comeback against the Panthers and their loss clinched a playoff spot for the Packers. With their win in Oakland, the Packers still have a one game advantage for the NFC North title over the Vikings, and a chance to earn themselves a bye in the playoffs if they win out (at Arizona, home for the Vikings).

I'd expect Arizona will be playing all their starters next week, though they've clinched their division. Cards HC Bruce Arians never seems to take his foot off of his team's gas pedal for any reason. I know we're getting close to the end of the season, but things can still change drastically from week-to-week. The Packers have made the playoffs, and I'm sure they'll be playing to win next week in Arizona, but it won't be a tragedy if they fall short. Arizona's been great all season long and playing them in Arizona during the playoffs won't be any easier than playing them in Lambeau.

But I can't see how the Packers would win the NFC North without beating the Vikings in Week 17. The Vikings play the Giants next Sunday, and the Giants might have nothing left to play for if Washington wins next Saturday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are still looking to win the division. They'll have to beat the Vikings if they want either the bye or a home playoff game.

Not that having home field is a necessity. They didn't need it when they last won the Super Bowl.

As for the game, I'm probably in the minority but it was a good win. QB Derek Carr was ranked ahead of QB Aaron Rodgers by Football Outsiders before the game, and the Packers pressured him into two terrible first quarter interceptions. Though the defense has often struggled this season, they were very good at almost everything in this game except covering WR Amari Cooper, who caught a late first half touchdown on a blown coverage (I think CB Casey Hayward was supposed to run with him but it was hard to tell since neither him nor Demetrius Randall made a move towards Cooper) and he had a third quarter touchdown when he just beat Randall down the sideline. But then shortly after Cooper's second TD reception, the Raiders matched the Packers' earlier blown coverage with their own blown coverage and the Packers never trailed again.
The Raiders had no offense in the fourth quarter, the Packers' defense did a really good job of applying pressure and in coverage, and it didn't matter that the Packers' offense stalled too (other than a 92 yard drive that stretched from the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter). It was a very inconsistent game (again) for the offense but winning by 10 points on the road to an improving Raiders team is not a gimme, and a necessity if they still have hopes of moving up in the playoff standings.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Packers Win Over Cowboys; Tough Road Game Ahead In Oakland

I've been off from blogging for a little while because I've been traveling, but I did stop at Lambeau Field during that trip to watch the Green Bay Packers defeat the Cowboys. Here's a picture from my seat:

I imagine watching the game from home would have been a lot like it was at the stadium. It was frustrating because the Packers were clearly the better team (having the right side of the offensive line back made a huge difference) but they couldn't put the Cowboys away until the middle of the 4th quarter. The Cowboys's offense never showed any signs of life, other than three big runs that set up their two scoring opportunities, but most of the game was tighter than it should have been.

And that's a problem, that the Packers aren't capable at the moment of putting away teams early. At least it was an improvement over falling behind against the Bears and Lions at home before mounting a not-quite-enough comeback at the end. But the Raiders are much better (currently No. 12 overall according to Football Outsiders) than the Cowboys and QB David Carr is currently ranked ahead of QB Aaron Rodgers per FO's website.

While Cooper and Crabtree are their big name receivers, they aren't tearing it up according to FO's advance stats. It's sneaky good production from guys like WR Seth Roberts and RB Marcel Reece (as a receiver) that's been their big advantage. The Packers's secondary should match up well (even if CB Sam Shields misses it because of his concussion) because six other members of the Packers's secondary have positive grades in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus, plus LB Joe Thomas (who's become their pass coverage LB in rotation with LB Jake Ryan) makes it seven. The Raiders don't have much of a rushing attack so the Packers's suspect run defense probably won't face much of a test.

The Packers's offense has to focus on protecting Aaron Rodgers. LB Khalil Mack has been a monster this season, and is coming off a 5 sack game at Denver. His success is forcing teams to pay less attention to this teammates, and seven of them currently have positive pass rushing grades according to Pro Football Focus. If they can protect Rodgers, the offense be able to put some points on the board.

If the Packers really want to grab the two seed from the Cardinals, then they're going to have to win this tough road game against a pretty good team that still has dim playoff hopes. And then win again next week on the road against that same Cardinals team that's battling for a playoff bye. With their win against the Cowboys behind them, the last three games look like a tough road before the playoffs.

Monday, December 07, 2015

Down The Stretch: The Packers Last Four Games of the 2015 Season

Despite their mid-season swoon on offense (if their injuries at receiver weren't enough, the injuries on the offensive line are a bigger problem at the moment) and their defense's struggles to create a pass rush without blitzing a defensive back, the Green Bay Packers are at 8-4 and a top the NFC North. The main concern is going to be the Minnesota Vikings and winning the NFC North title, though a wild card birth is a strong possibility even if they struggle down the stretch.

With one game remaining against each other, and both the Packers and Vikings are traveling to Arizona for one game, their schedules are very similar. Each team plays another team with a long-shot chance at the playoffs (Packers at Raiders, Vikings host Giants) and another one against a team that's just finishing out the season (Packers host Cowboys, Vikings host Bears).

Confidence is important for a team, not the most important thing but it's a factor, and for what it's worth, the Packers have a lot of confidence after winning a game on a Hail Mary pass while the Vikings completely fell apart at home against the Seahawks. It's never a good thing when a team's star player starts calling out his coaches in public.
I'd love to say I know how the next four games are going to go for the Packers but they've been so inconsistent while losing four of their last six games that it's hard to predict. However, the Broncos game being the exception, after every time they've fallen behind recently, they've managed to stage a late game rally or comeback win. So no matter how bad they look (i.e. the first quarter against the Lions) they'll still have a chance to rally. The Cowboys game should be a win but nothing is a given right now. Traveling across the country to play the Raiders feels like a trap game before they visit the Cardinals (which is their toughest remaining game). Then it'll be a rematch against the Vikings which might be the game to decide who'll make the playoffs.

Friday, December 04, 2015

More Video of Packers Hail Mary Win Over The Lions

A video posted by Brandon Movitz (@brandicle) on

Packers Pull Off Hail Mary In Detroit: Beat Lions 27-23

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

On the final play of the game, the Packers drew what was probably the weakest face mask penalty I've ever seen (it only looked weak on slow motion replay, at full speed it looked a lot worse) but that's not what I'm talking about by luck. How many times does a Hail Mary work? QB Aaron Rodgers said he's never thrown one before. How many times are there four fumbles in a game and the Packers recover all four of them?
The Packers are usually not a slow starting team, but this game featured one of the slowest starts I can remember from them, on both sides of the ball. The Lions easily moved down the field against the Packers' defense for their first two scoring drives, and I can't remember the last time Rodgers threw too high for a receiver and had it intercepted. The Packers looked dead in the first quarter with 38 yards of offense and 1 interception, while the Lions had three scoring drives and 133 yards of offense. Lions 17, Packers 0.

But the defense came alive in the second quarter and forced four Lions punts, though the Packers' offense remained scoreless. Both teams were hurt by their inability to run the ball, and the Lions are hurt just as badly as the Packers by their lack of depth at wide receiver. Here are some of the first half stats and it's real ugly for the Packers' offense:
Team Yards 3rd Down % Turnovers Score
Packers 78 0% 1 0
Lions 151 29% 0 17
The Lions started the second half off with a 71 yard drive that led to another field goal, and it pushed their lead up to 20-0, but then they only had 84 yards on their next four drives combined, including a strip sack fumble that set up the Packers' second touchdown. While they did score another field goal in the fourth quarter, their offense had four chances to put the game out of reach and the Packers' defense stopped them.

As for the offense, obviously this was TE Richard Rodgers's game, but a lot of breaks went the Packers' way and none of these breaks were bigger than their fumble luck. While the Lions had one fumble that was recovered in their red zone, the Packers had three fumbles and they recovered them all, including a fumble by RB James Starks that was recovered by WR Randall Cobb for a touchdown.

The offense also started playing better. Even before he caught that Hail Mary pass, Richard Rodgers had around 70 yards receiving in the second half, WR Davante Adams had his first touchdown reception of the year, and Starks was good for some yards on screen passes. Rookie RB John Crockett, he was with the Packers during the preseason but was just re-signed this week, got a few carries to give the offense their best rushing yards (other than Aaron Rodgers's touchdown scramble) of the night.

So the Packers played what was probably their worst all-around quarter of the season in the first quarter, trailed 17-0, and then managed to do just enough on offense (along with a little fumble luck) to get themselves in place for the game winning Hail Mary pass. In the end, there are no style points and it's all about which team gets the W, but this was one of the least impressive wins I can remember and I don't feel like this 2015 team has turned a corner. I don't think their season would have been over if they'd lost this game either, but they need at least 10 wins from somewhere to make the playoffs (maybe 9 wins would get them in too) and this gets them a third of the way there.

Now the Packers get a little time off and don't play again until Sunday night, December 13th, at Lambeau against the Cowboys. And I'll be there! Freezing my butt off no doubt but I'll be having a great time. Hopefully I lose my voice and watch the Packers earn their ninth win of the season.