Wednesday, April 29, 2020

I've given up on waiting for the Packers to draft Aaron Rodgers a receiver

ESPN had an interesting stat that doesn't mean anything:
Except it does show how different teams approach roster construction. The Colts selected Marvin Harrison in the first round before they had Peyton Manning and then added Reggie Wayne with a 1st round pick during Manning's career. The Packers never use a 1st round pick on a wide receiver. Both approaches work.

But the ESPN's stat did remind me how the Packers have avoided the wide receiver position over the past five drafts. Here's a list of players who have caught more than 10 TD passes from Rodgers:

Nelson 65, Jones 41, Cobb 39, Adams 39, Jennings 38, Driver 22, Finley 19, Other Rodgers 13.

The top five are wide receivers drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. The last time that happened the Packers drafted "wide receiver" Ty Montgomery in the 3rd round in 2015. Adams was a 2nd round pick in 2014.

There are also two tight ends, but they are always secondary for Rodgers. His favorite targets have always been his wide receivers. Those are the quality players he needs to succeed and the Packers have failed him over the past few years in that regard.

Instead the Packers have drafted a quantity of wide receivers in recent years and none higher than the immortal J'Mon Moore in the 4th round in 2018. I'll skip the 2020 draft class because we don't know how good they are yet. Looking back in the 2nd and 3rd rounds from 2016 through 2019 there have been 35 wide receivers drafted. I'm cherry picking but here are the big names and imagine them filling out a fantasy team roster:

Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin.

That's 14 out of 35 players who would be the clear No. 2 next to Adams. Not great odds but if they had drafted one per year they would have had at least one of them. And it's also a high ceiling with a list that includes some of the best receivers in the NFL and some who are better than Adams. And the Packers are historically really good at finding 2nd round receivers.

Instead of looking back and seeing that Rodgers needs quality receivers they've decided that they need to draft a power running back and three offensive lineman. The organization has gotten it wrong.
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Saturday, April 25, 2020

What The Packers Will Look Like Over The Next Few Years

The NFL is a copycat league and it looks like the Packers are copying the Tennessee Titans and the San Francisco 49ers.

The Titans connection is even stronger with the HC Matt Lafleur. Ben Fennell comped RB AJ Dillon to former Falcons RB TJ Duckett. On ESPN someone commented that Dillon was one of those big backs you used to see teams draft in the 1st round. Used to. Instead it looks like the Packers view Dillon as their Derrick Henry.

Since DC Mike Pettine can't scheme up a run defense I'm sure the Packers were very impressed with what they saw from the 49ers in their two match-ups last season. A run first team with a strong defense who asks their QB to do just enough got to the Super Bowl. Of course the Packers haven't done much to make their strong defense a reality by bringing back Pettine who I expect will do more of the same next year. Also the 49ers loaded up their defense before last season with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford while the Packers have only added ILB Christian Kirksey (if healthy) to take over for Blake Martinez.

It's interesting to watch the Denver Broncos copy a different team. I only watched one entire Broncos game last season and it was their game against the Packers. The Broncos offense was plain vanilla. Run the ball, don't ask too much from Joe Flacco, and slowly move down the field.

Instead of doing more of the same next season it looks like the Broncos took that Chiefs game film to heart. The 49ers's scheme worked in the Super Bowl until it didn't and Jimmy G had to do something. And he couldn't against a mediocre Chiefs defense. Instead MVP QB Patrick Mahomes led the comeback against the 49ers's great defense.

This offseason the Broncos hired OC Pat Shurmur. He's a boring retread but he's also spent a lot of time with Chiefs HC Andy Reid. He knows better than probably anyone what the Chiefs want to do on offense. Drew Lock and his cannon arm take over at QB. Their 1st round pick is the best WR available (caution-might have bad knees) Jerry Jeudy. Penn State WR KJ Hamler in the 2nd round, he might have to be schemed open but he's a big play waiting to happen when he does get the ball. They did sign RB Melvin Gordon to big money for some reason but he won't hurt them unless he keeps RB Phillip Lindsay off the field. There are some big question marks here; is Lock really the guy, are Jeudy's knees really a concern, is Hamler undersized. But I love what they're doing. And the Broncos already have one of the best WRs in the NFL in Courtland Sutton.

The Broncos just raised the ceiling on their big play passing offense while the Packers just brought their's down with a new run focused offense. The Broncos might be going toe-to-toe with Mahomes and the Chiefs for the next few years. The Packers will be led by franchise RB AJ Dillon and game manager QB Jordan Love, battling for that last playoff spot and a first round exit.
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In The Third Round The Packers Select TE Josiah Deguara

By itself selecting TE Josiah Deguara is a good move for the Packers.
They released TE Jimmy Graham and they hadn't added anyone to replace him. I'd rather have a TE who's a receiving threat than a blocker. The stat above shows that Deguara is also a nice deep threat too.

The only times that Graham succeeded last season were on the one or two plays per game when the defense would completely forget about him and he'd find himself wide open for a big gain. Next season when Deguara gets onto the field, I expect defenses will ignore the rookie 3rd string TE and that might work out well for a few big plays next season.
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Friday, April 24, 2020

Top Thing I Hate Today: Packers Draft Jordan Love

I've been having a really tough time with life. 2019 was an exhausting year and I gave up on my career of the last 15 years. 2020 has been a tough professional transition from one of hope into one of daily disappointment. As I struggle with the parts of my life that I can control, I really didn't need the Green Bay Packers to use a 1st round pick (AND trade up in the 1st round!) for Jordan Forking Love.
The rule is that college QBs who throw a lot of INTs are not good NFL prospects, and that Dan Marino is the exception who proves the rule.

But I'm going to start out by defending the selection because after Love it looks like there was no other player left with a first round grade on the Packers' draft board. Here are the players selected in the first round after him:

  • ILB Jordan Brooks, Texas Tech, a one-dimensional run stopping linebacker with limited coverage skills. 
  • ILB Patrick Queen. LSU, a one-year starter in college.
  • OT Isaiah Wilson, Georgia, a slow giant who might be a turnstile in pass protection.
  • CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn, a future slot corner with no ball skills.
  • CB Jeff Gladney, TCU, an undersized corner who might not have the physical skills to overcome being too short.
  • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU, running backs are not valuable enough to use a first round pick on them in the modern NFL.
The highest pick to be traded on draft day was No. 13, and even then the 49ers only moved down one spot. Only one team (New England, of course) managed to trade out of the first round on draft day. Teams did not want any part of this year's first round.

There was talk before the draft that the Packers were talking about trading up but it probably wasn't worth the cost in a weak first round. They probably couldn't have traded out of the first round either because no other non-New England team did it. I hate trading up but the cost was only a late 4th round pick and I don't mind them trading away any pick after the third round.

But the Packers have to be better evaluators of talent then almost everyone else for this to succeed. If they didn't really believe in Love either and took him because he was the only high-risk player remaining on their draft board with a first round grade then they couldn't see the forest for the trees.

To excuse this selection there are going to be a lot of comparisons to back when Ted Thompson surprised everyone by selecting Aaron Rodgers in the first round. Rodgers was a great prospect, not perfect so I understand some of the reasons why he slipped, but he got better each year and only threw 13 INTs total in two years at Cal. Love threw 17 INTs last season. I'm a big believer in college INTs as an indicator of future NFL accuracy and the ESPN stats above back me up. 

Rodgers falling in the 2005 draft was as if Tua had fell to the Packers. I'd be writing about how Tua was way too good to pass on despite his injury history and I would have applauded them. Love is no Tua.

What should the Packers have done instead?

The Packers need to improve on or replace Kevin King at CB, Billy Turner at RG, Bryan Bulaga at RT and everyone not named Davante Adams at WR. They've needed a dynamic inside LB for so many years that I've given up on it ever happening. But it was very unlikely that anyone drafted at the end of the first round would actually have started in Week 1 at any position. 

However I expect that they are still going to draft some other players over the next couple days. I assume that there are still many players available who have a second round grade on their draft board. They should have treated their first round pick like an expensive second round pick. There would have certainly been a WR available.

Coming off an NFC Championship appearance they should have risked some of their future to win now while the window is still open. But maybe the moves weren't available if it turns out to be a weak draft class and they couldn't attract the players they needed in free agency because of the situation and the salary cap. Free agents know it's cold in Green Bay. Maybe all they could have done is added some depth in the draft. Or maybe I'm wrong and Jordan Love is going to be a great pro QB in a couple years. 

But today this doesn't feel right.
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Friday, August 09, 2019

Packers Preseason Week 1: Packers defeat Texans 28-26 at Lambeau

Both the Packers and Texans rested nearly all of their starters in their preseason opener so there wasn't a lot of good football to watch. Almost everyone on the field is inexperienced and fighting for their NFL careers. Also, a starting QB match-up between Joe Webb (it's amazing he's still being given chances at NFL QB) and DeShone Kizer isn't must-see TV. If you're wondering how the Kizer Project is going, Tim Boyle still looks clearly better than him.

But almost all of their top 2019 draft choices played so it was a good opportunity to get a first look at them.
1st round: LB Rashan Gary. He looked fine, but when Reggie Gilbert came in to sub for him, the two were almost indistinguishable. I like Gilbert, but he didn't show much last regular season when given an expanded role and I was expecting a lot more from a high first round pick (Gary) than a former undrafted free agent (Gilbert). Late in the game, undrafted rookie free agent Randy Ramsey got a huge sack from Gary's position over the right tackle, however, the Texans also left Ramsey completely unblocked.

1st round: S Darnell Savage. He played deep safety alongside Raven Greene (who's become a favorite bench player) during the 1st quarter so he was off the screen for most of his time on the field. Greene had a bigger impact because the Texans were throwing more to his side and he also forced a fumble on running back Taiwan Jones.  Nothing much to report, I hope the coaches liked the little they saw from him.

2nd round: OL Elgton Jenkins. I still don't believe in free agent OG Billy Turner (who didn't play along with most of the other veterans) and hope Jenkins wins the job at right guard. Instead he might win OG Lane Taylor's job at left guard, Taylor was one of the few veterans who did play against the Texans so his job might be in danger. On a side note, I thought Taylor was so bad during the 2016 preseason that he was going to be released then, instead they released Josh Sitton and gave Taylor the starting job, so I haven't been a Taylor fan for a while. Jenkins looked pretty good at getting a push on running plays and holding his ground in pass protection while playing at both center and guard. However, since Jenkins played into the 3rd quarter, and played at two positions, it looks like he's being groomed as the #1 backup interior lineman instead of as a starter.

3rd round: TE Jace Sternberger. He didn't play after taking a big hit during the a joint practice with the Texans earlier this week. In a bit of karma, during the preseason game, Tim Boyle threw a touchdown pass to WR Allen Lazard while Texans CB Lonnie Johnson (who hit Sternberger and then flexed over him) was in coverage on him.

I won't go into detail with the rest of the undrafted rookies and remaining 2019 draft choices. DT Kingsley Keke had a nice game, he showed he can be a rotational guy who can provide an inside rush against less offensive lineman (it's hard to judge him since the Texans' OL is so bad). Preseason results aren't a measure of whether a player will make the team. Though preseason dropped passes (WR J'Mon Moore) or fumbles (RB Darrin Hall) make it clear why someone was released.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Packers Sign FOUR free agents: Smith and Smith, Amos and Billy Turner

The first couple days of NFL free agency is for suckers. Most of the teams that spend big early come away disappointed. You know, like how that TE Jimmy Graham signing didn't go well last year. So it's making me very nervous to see big spending from the Green Bay Packers at the start of free agency.

At least the players they did sign fit what I would ideally hope for in a free agent. They're all in their 20s, all signing their first deal after their rookie contract expired (except Turner), and they've all missed few games to injury. As a bonus, Amos's signing weakens a division rival.
They badly needed young, productive edge rushers, and here's their first one. He's typically been a part-time player for the Ravens so he shouldn't stop the Packers from using a high draft pick on another edge rusher. The money is huge but that's what edge rusher cost in free agency.
The other Mr. Smith seems like who the Packers hoped they would get when they re-signed Nick Perry a couple years ago. He looks good against the run too, which is something Packer edge defenders struggled with last year, but he's getting paid because they'll need him to rush the quarterback.

As an added bonus, neither one of the Smiths cost a 2nd round pick (like the 49ers are trading to the Chiefs just for the right to sign Dee Ford to a big contract). I'd rather have had Trey Flowers at his price than either of the Smiths at their price, but Flowers probably wasn't an option once his old Patriot friends in Detroit came calling.
A year ago I was coming to terms that the Packers were going to overpay Ha Ha Clinton-Dix for his mediocre play because they had no one anywhere near as good as him at safety. A year later, the Packers have Amos and an extra 3rd round pick from the Redskins. Amos is expensive but his cost wasn't at the top of the safety market, he's really solid, and he weakens a division rival as a bonus.

And finally, what the hell?
Ben Fennell's work is exceptional and the best he can say about Billy Turner is that "he'll join the mix." He might beat out McCray, who was terrible last season and I don't want to see back in 2019. Would any Packer fan want to pay McCray $16 million over the next two years? The best I can say about Turner is that he's really big and he looks very strong.

I went back and watched the first half of Week 17 of the Broncos game against the Chargers. Turner was terrible. I know, it's a small sample size, but that first half confirmed everything I read about him. In that game he committed at least one holding penalty and he lost his balance too easily in pass protection. On a couple occasions he let a Charger interior rusher run right at Case Keenum after a strong push made Turner lean back on his heals and open up a lane to the QB for the defender. He looks really stiff. Byron Bell was awful last season and Turner looked confused in space like Bell did many times last season. Forget what I said earlier about paying McCray $16 million over 2 years, how about paying Bell $16 million over 2 years?

I can see how Turner could "play" tackle too (probably as well as Bell). The Packers really need a backup tackle for the inevitable Bryan Bulaga injury but in no way is that backup Turner. I hope they use all their mid-round draft picks on offensive lineman, one of them has to be better than Turner.

The Turner signing might be the low point in Packer free agent history but the other free agents should work out. While Nick Perry was basically signed at the same point in his career as the Smiths, neither of the Smiths are as injury prone as Perry. Both of them, along with Amos, fill major needs. There could be buyer's remorse with any or all of these three in a couple years but right now they look solid. And hopefully Turner's contract is off the books by 2021.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019

The Packers Will Hire Matt LaFleur as Their Next Head Coach

It looks like the entire goal of the hiring process for the Green Bay Packers was to find a young offensive genius to be their next head coach:
Oh and to make sure Ron Zook still has a job...
Only Pettine is mentioned and not all the coaches don't need to be retained. I have no problem with keeping Pettine, the defense showed some early to mid-season promise. They fell off a cliff at the end of the year but they also lost their defensive MVP Kenny Clark for those last 3 games. It's not unheard of to keep the defensive coaches intact when a new offensive minded head coach is hired. But I can't believe he'll keep all the offensive coaches and different running game/passing game coordinators they had last season. Isn't Murphy expecting LaFleur to bring his own style of offense to Green Bay?

After I heard the announcement, I went and watched a bunch of Titans games (with Mariota at QB, nothing with Gabbert). Including some of their bad ones against great defensive teams (Bills and Ravens). I criticized McCarthy for not running the ball enough but this is a bit ridiculous.
That 48.4% also included a few designed runs by Mariota which maybe was the reason he didn't make it through the year and the Titans had to start Gabbert for their must win Week 17 game (they lost). It might have also been due in part to carryover a mostly run heavy offensive roster from the previous coaching regime. But the Titans weren't run heavy in every game so I'm not expecting LaFleur's bringing his 48.4% run percentage to Green Bay.

That comment above about Aaron Jones is true, the Titans loved getting touches to Dion Lewis, who's role in Green Bay would be played by Jones. McCarthy's complete avoidance of using his backs as threats in the passing game was frustrating so LaFleur should be a welcome change.

Overall it was pretty depressing to watch the 2018 Titans offense. Maybe Mariota just doesn't get it, he doesn't have a feel for what the defense is doing or where his receivers are going. And he doesn't do well with pressure. The Titans didn't have any receiving threat as dangerous as Davante Adams either. Maybe LaFleur's hands were tied.

In a lot of ways, LaFleur's offense looked like every other offense in the NFL (it's a copy cat league after all). He'd try some different motions one way to misdirect on a play going the other way, but usually early in the game and those types of plays would be rare later. Mariota threw a lot to the middle of the field, something Rodgers doesn't do much. The Titans also played a lot in a bunch formation, I guess that helps LaFleur's QBs read the coverage better or disguise the route trees from the receivers, but it didn't seem to help the Titans that much.

Maybe the most important thing is to get a young energetic coach who will probably work himself to death and hopefully earn Aaron Rodgers's respect. While Rodgers still had a statistically strong 2018 season in some ways (an amazing TD to INT ratio as an example) the offense just looked confused too often. Relying heavily on two rookie WRs was part of the problem, the early season loss of Geronimo Allison was another problem I didn't write enough about last year. And, of course, the relationship breakdown between Rodgers and McCarthy. Hopefully the plan LaFleur sold to Murphy was a good one, and he can realize it with a better QB.
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Wednesday, December 05, 2018

2018 Week 13: The Packers Lose in a Shocking Upset by the Cardinals and Mike McCarthy is Fired

At the start of this season, I thought it was low odds that the Green Bay Packers would fire Mike McCarthy. While I've been unimpressed with the overall talent level on the current roster, the return of Aaron Rodgers should be enough for 10+ wins and another playoff run. Obviously I was wrong.
I didn't agree with this tweet until recently. In hindsight, he's right. The greatness of the 2010 and 2011 seasons had been fading for a while. Now looking back at a great 2014 season, I can see how much it was propped up by elite play from Rodgers, Nelson, and Cobb. It wasn't going to be sustainable, and it started to fall apart quickly in 2015 after Nelson was lost for the season. In early 2016, it wasn't McCarthy's fault and once they get Nelson back, Ted Thompson will continue to run a beautiful draft and they'll get back on top.

I had no explanation for why Dom Capers was still the DC after the 2015 season (probably sooner) but I like retaining coaches year after year. This is one of several general assumptions that I need to reconsider.

Though it took a furious finish to get back to the NFC Championship Game in 2016, I wasn't worried. The Falcons had a great 2016 season and once their young players are experienced and healthy in the secondary, they'll have a great 2017 season.

But the 2017 season was lost after Rodgers broke his collarbone, and it should have been clear to me that McCarthy's departure was inevitable. He was unable to coach Brett Hundley into a respectable QB and his team completely gave up on him during their Week 17 loss in Detroit. It was Detroit's players who were rallying around their HC (Jim Caldwell was fired anyway) and it felt like McCarthy should have been fired instead of Caldwell.

Maybe McCarthy would have been fired if GM Ted Thompson wasn't fired reassigned. The beautiful drafts didn't happen. Though the 2016 draft produced three starters, the 2017 draft class might be a total loss other than Aaron Jones. Aside from Jones, the Packers haven't drafted a key contributor on offense since Adams and Linsley in 2014. Maybe Murphy didn't want to change everything that was long-standing at once, and McCarthy deserved another chance.
I thought the 2018 season was over when Rodgers's knee was bent back the wrong way in Week 1, but he had a couple of furious comebacks to keep this season afloat. When he complained about the bad offense against the Bills in Week 4, I thought he was underestimating a pretty good defense. He's also had to rely on a couple of rookie wide receivers which was going to be a problem until they're both more experienced.

But the stale offense that couldn't get anything out of Hundley in 2017 was again a problem even with Rodgers. It wasn't awful, but it could and should be better.

Ever since they lost a pair of road games to the Rams and Patriots, I thought the season was over (though not technically). The team was still playing hard, but that stopped against the Cardinals. The thought of watching them play out four more games that looked like 2017 Week 17 in Detroit was an awful feeling, and for that reason I'm glad Murphy decided to fire McCarthy mid-season. He was going to be fired after the season anyway, the excuses that could have been used for 2015-2017 just weren't going to work anymore.

And they'll need time to find the right coach. I'm not a fan of Vikings OC, John Defilippo, or Patriots OC, Josh McDaniels. After what McDaniels did to the Colts this year, I don't think he deserves another HC offer anywhere. The new coach will have to be someone who can engage Rodgers at his high level (Joe Philbin is not that guy) while still being able to team the basics to the young receivers and backs. Murphy probably knows the NFL as well as anyone and right now I'm optimistic. 

I don't know what to expect over the final few games. It's time to give the players who will be the anchors in 2019 to get fewer reps on defense and let players like Oren Burks play an entire game. Finally send Byron Bell to the bench and give fewer reps to Adams. It would seem hard (maybe impossible?) to find an excuse to bench Rodgers. If Philbin wasn't coaching for his job, I'd suggest he hand over play calling to Rodgers and let him try and find a rhythm with the young receivers Tonyan, MVS, and EQB.

I'm surprised at this is how the 2018 season has went though firing McCarthy was unfortunately the right decision.
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Monday, November 26, 2018

2018 Week 12: Packers Find More Ways to Lose on the Road, lose to the Vikings, 24-17

I could pretty much repeat what I wrote last week when they lost in Seattle by 3 points for this loss in Minneapolis by 7 points.

It was a little bit different. While the offense stayed in the locker room at half time for the 2nd consecutive week and only managed 254 yards of total offense for the game, the defense played a larger role by allowing the Vikings to convert on 50% of their 3rd down attempts and a provide a mediocre pass rush against one of the weaker o-lines in the league. They missed the inside pressure from DT Mike Daniels, probably more than having to play a bunch of rookies at cornerback. In a normal season, underwhelming at Minnesota wouldn't be a big surprise because it's consistently a tough place to win. But this season it was just another one of their disappointing road losses.
Rodgers isn't giving up, good for him, but I thought the season was over after the loss in Seattle. It was on fumes after the loss to the Rams, but wins in Seattle and Minnesota would had me plotting a playoff path. Three winnable home games remain (Cardinals, Falcons, Lions) against teams with losing records, and while they shouldn't win at Chicago, they could sneak a win in New York against the Jets to avoid an 0-8 road record. Still, a record of 8-7-1 isn't going to make the playoffs.

I'm enjoying a nice seasonal winter ale as I write about another road loss and I'll continue to spend time reading articles on the hot head coaching candidates for 2019. At least the Packers haven't lost at home this season and I'll have a win to look forward to against the Cardinals next week.
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Thursday, November 15, 2018

2018 Week 11: Packers Lose Again on the Road, This Time in Seattle, 27-24

With the exception of their opening road loss of the 2018 season in Washington, when they were completely outplayed for four quarters by the Redskins, I'm sick of watching this flawed team manage to find a way to lose on the road.
This week, if it weren't for an opening fumble from the Seahawks (I was going to type RB Carson, but each team had a #32 RB named Carson!) and a huge game from Kyler Fackrell (the transformation of Fackrell in a matter of weeks from an absolute zero to a stud OLB should be one of the major stories in the NFL this season) the defense was a mess against the run and the pass. And both Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark went off with injuries!

This week the offense struggled badly on 3rd down, mostly due to a collapse in pass protection. It's sad to watch age and a bum knee turn RT Bryan Bulaga into a Spriggs-level talent, and Byron Bell was never going to be a plus lineman. A terrible 3 for 11 conversion rate on 3rd down, usually with a sack (except for that last one when Rodgers uncharacteristically threw it in the ground) killed too many drives.

This was never a promising looking game on the schedule, despite the down season in Seattle. The Packers never win in Seattle, they never win on the road (at least this season) and Seattle's the better team in 2018. The early turnover and 7-0 gave me some hope that THIS WEEK IT WILL BE DIFFERENT! When that second drive ended in a missed field goal, I sobered up, realized it wasn't going to be any different this week, and started drinking for real.

I don't know what they should do for the rest of the season. McCarthy will keep pushing each week for the win to try and save his job and Aaron Rodgers isn't going to want to give up. They could turn it around. If the rookie wide receivers can figure it out and the offensive line can be turned into a competent group before year end, the Packers might be able to surprise in a playoff road game as they did in Dallas back on 12/15/2017.

But I can't believe that will happen this season. This isn't the season of R-E-L-A-X. This was a flawed team from the start. Let's enjoy each remaining home game (they can win those ones!), dream of what Gute and his next head coach is going to do with all those draft picks next year, and drink in the meantime. Spotted Cow for everyone!
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Monday, September 24, 2018

2018 Week 3: Packers Lose An Ugly Game In D.C. to the Redskins, 31-17

My first reaction was that this game exposed all of the Packers weaknesses on defense. A confused secondary, led by safety Kentrell Brice, who's first post-game comment was to throw his coach under the bus.
The buck stops somewhere else! I'm not a fan of his (unfortunately I don't see his replacement currently on the roster) but he wasn't the only one. CB Jaire Alexander, CB Tramon Williams, and CB Davon House all had pass interference penalties (on one drive!) as part of a disastrous first half. Washington has one of the least impressive groups of receivers in the NFL (Richardson only had that one big reception, Doctson had zero receptions, and Crowder had a nice game as their No. 3 receiver). Whatever adjustments were made at halftime worked because those problems didn't show up in the second half. But most teams who commit 11 penalties for 115 penalty yards are going to lose.

They also had a lot of trouble on the defending the edge against the run. While Adrian Peterson looked a lot better than I expected, his big 40+ yard run went right at OLB Kyler Fackrell, who continues to receive playing time for no good reason. OLB Reggie Gilbert wasn't much better against the run on the edge, often getting swallowed up inside.

The pass defense's biggest struggle was against TEs, Davis and Reed were killing them. It was the first game for ILB Oren Burks but I'm not exactly sure how much he played as he rotated with Morrison and Whitehead inside. But it wasn't a problem in the 2nd half, maybe Whitehead was playing more later in the game. Morrison was dumped by the Colts because of his problems in coverage, so he's not part of the solution.

And zero pass rush. Once DC Mike Pettine started dialing up some DB blitzes, they got some pressure, but the front four did little outside of the roughing the passer call on Clay Matthews. Those calls are an embarrassment for the NFL, it's called a tackle and it shouldn't be a penalty, but that call was not why they lost the game.

I don't know if I'd even blame the defense for the loss though they've got to find a way to create more of a pass rush (legally) and improve their pass defense. But on second viewing, the offense found a way to maximize their worst plays and avoid their effective ground game.
Their offense is better with Randall Cobb but I can't understate how bad he was on Sunday. He was targeted 11 times and those 11 plays went for 23 yards and a fumble. He was targeted every sixth play, no one was targeted more and he produced absolutely nothing. Adams also had a drop (and a TD reception) and TE Lance Kendricks continued his pass-dropping ways from the preseason with another big drop in this game. There's no reason for Kendricks to play anywhere except special teams. Overall, it's amazing the Packers only lost by 14 points when they committed 115 penalty yards and their No. 1 target was clearly their worst offensive player.

And Mike McCarthy, if you're averaging almost 6 yards on the ground and your most dynamic running back has just returned (Aaron Jones had 7 yards per carry! On only 6 (team leading!) carries) and your franchise quarterback is hobbling around on an injured knee, why don't you run the ball? Over 50 pass plays were called and only 15 running plays. Yes, they were trailing the entire game, but those passes to Cobb weren't working all game. And the Redskins struggled covering Ty Montgomery out of the backfield. Rodgers had something to do with throwing all those attempts to Cobb but the last pass attempt to him was a designed quick screen pass that led to his fumble. A lot of this is always second-guessing but McCarthy's 0 for 3 this season in coming up with offensive game plans that out-coach their opponent and he didn't adjust at halftime.

A week ago, their upcoming Week 4 game hosting Buffalo looked like a relaxing Sunday, before the Bills stomped all over the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 3. The players need to play better and the coaches, especially on offense, need to come up with a better game plan. This game was bad, but they're a better team than what they showed against the Redskins.
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Monday, September 17, 2018

2018 Week 2: Packers Host The Vikings, Ends in 29-29 Tie

I'm really OK with this tie. It's not a loss (really, that can matter in tie-breakers) and the Vikings are a really good team who could have easily won if their kicker hadn't missed three field goals (they should bring back Ryan Longwell). Of course, the Packers could have won if this hadn't been called a penalty.
I get it, it's not an illegal hit, but they didn't lose the game because of this call. They had other chances to win.

I was really disappointed in Mike McCarthy. The Packers were in 3rd and long too many times and ran the ball about half as many times as they threw it. Ty Montgomery was really effective as a runner, averaging over 6 yards per carry, but he only had 5 attempts. Also the play calling, after Clinton-Dix intercepted Kirk Cousins with just over 2 minutes to go. They probably couldn't have run for a first down but they could have made the Vikings use all their time outs before the Packers kicked a field goal. I guess he wanted to put the game away with a first down, or a touchdown, and his defense was probably on fumes in the heat, but he has to put that pressure on the Vikings (make them use all their timeouts) and make their final drive as difficult as possible.

It wasn't a great game for Mike Pettine either, though it's a lot to ask of him to know everything about his players in only his 2nd game with the Packers. When Kevin King went down with a groin injury, replacing him on with Davon House over Josh Jackson looks like a big mistake in hindsight (he probably won't do that again). Also, giving Kyler Fackrell meaningful defensive snaps isn't going to work, but he only has so many outside linebackers on the roster to work with.

While I understand why both coaches did what they did, neither of them pushed the right buttons with those critical decisions. I don't have anything to say against any of the players, they played as well as I would expect. I'm sure Aaron Rodgers would have loved a due over on that two play sequence in the middle of OT when at the Minnesota 37 yard line he fumbled a hand-off attempt (play action? I'm not sure what he wanted to do there) and then a sack to move them out of field goal range, but I'm not saying anything critical of him while trying to play on one leg.

It's disappointing but it's not a disaster either. The next three games could be an interesting run, next week against the Redskins (who didn't look good against the Colts) and then back-to-back games against two of the weaker teams so far this season (Lions and Bills). Just focus on the next game and work on staying out of the loss column.
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Monday, September 10, 2018

2018 Week 1: Rodgers Rallies The Packers to 24-23 Victory Over The Bears

I gave up on this game. After Aaron Rodgers's left knee was rolled to it's side on a sack (knees are not supposed to bend that way!) he couldn't walk off the field under his own power which led to this:
That's it for the 2018 season. They'd manage a few wins (DeShone Kizer couldn't go winless for another entire season, could he?) but they're not going anywhere with an improving but still mediocre defense and old school play calling from Mike McCarthy. Kizer did give me a little hope that he wasn't going to be a repeat of Brett Hundley with a drive into the red zone but on the drive's final play he ran right into LB Khalil Mack's arms for a fumble. On the next drive, an ill-advised screen pass was called and Kizer threw a pick-six right to Mack (they must be good buddies by this point) for a 17-0 halftime deficit. Kizer was a different type of awful than Hundley, not as ineffective but more turnover prone. Wake me up in September 2019.

But then...
and then...
then another touchdown pass to Davante Adams, and then the dagger!!!
This is old school, but it reminded me of a 1989 game against the Saints (without the QB injury), when I completely gave up on a game though I shouldn't.

The rust in the first half (pre-knee injury) had vanished. The pass protection was great and Rodgers's passes were just beyond the defenders' fingers. Bears CB Kyle Fuller dropped a game ending INT but bad hands is why those guys were switched to DB in the first place.

There were still some zeroes in this game. Newly named starting RG Justin McCray was terrible in the first half (it looked like he missed the rushing DL on the stunt who went unblocked when Rodgers suffered his knee injury) and much better in the second. Clay Matthews is still useful but every few weeks he has one of these awful games, his only big play was a roughing the passer penalty on 4th down that gave the Bears another chance at the end of the game. Jamaal Williams seemed to have a knack for running into a pile instead of finding some daylight.

A knee injury for Rodgers is bad but it's much better than a lost season. Maybe it's an MCL sprain, which he obviously can play through but who knows when it would be healed. It's going to be a struggle to win the division or make the playoffs, so these divisional games are must-wins. Rodgers recovered in the second half to pull their season back from the brink, but that's still a dangerous place to find themselves after one game. Whew!
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Friday, August 31, 2018

The Packers Preseason Is Over and Here Are My Choices For The 53-Man Roster

I didn't have a tough time choosing between players, I had a tough time filling all 53 spots!

After other teams make their final cuts, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers kick the tires on a few different players for their 53-man roster and the practice squad.

I wanted to keep just the players I'd like to see them keep but I ended up making some practical decisions because I had extra roster spots to fill.
QB (3): Rodgers, Kizer, Boyle. No surprises here after they traded Brett Hundley. My initial thought was to release Boyle and sign him to the practice squad, but I had room on the 53-man roster so here he is.

RB/FB (4): Williams, Jones, Montgomery, Ripkowski. Though they'll add someone to fill in while Jones is suspended. But I don't expect it'll be another running back for Week 1.

WR (6): Adams, Cobb, Allison, Kumerow, Moore, Valdes-Scantling. I'm not sure about Kumerow's shoulder but he's deserved a spot. Moore kept improving throughout the preseason so I'm thinking good thoughts about him entering the regular season. Trevor Davis has special return skills and he's pretty good on special teams coverage, but his inability to play receiver and hold onto the ball means it's time to go.

TE (4): Graham, Lewis, Byrd, Tonyan. Man, Kendricks has been such a disappointment since he signed, but I still hate releasing a former Badger. Byrd and Tonyan played well this preseason, though Tonyan's a little small for the position.

OL (8): Bakhtiari, Taylor, Linsley, McCray, Bulaga, Spriggs, Patrick, Pankey. I like the starting five and I'm not a fan of any of the backups other than Patrick. Spriggs will stay because he was a high draft pick and, like Pankey, they can both play tackle. Both #69 and Bulaga missed time this preseason due to injury so they need depth at tackle but I wish I didn't have to include either Spriggs or Pankey. I don't understand why they thought Byron Bell was a good idea.

DL (5): Lowry, Wilkerson, Adams, Clark, Daniels. They had a bunch of decent defensive lineman but none of the others stood out especially and they don't really need that many DLmen.

LB (10): Biegel, Burks, Donnerson, Gilbert, Martinez, Martini, Matthews, Morrison, Perry, Thomas. Surprisingly the converted safety Thomas gets my vote, there has to be roles for Martini and Thomas to play. Donnerson forced a fumble and showed just enough to keep him around. Biegel too. Gilbert better be on the field for every likely passing down this season. From what I've seen of Morrison when he was with the Colts (he's still only 23 years old!) is that he's got some skills, though he had problems with pass coverage and penalties, and he could be explosive on the inside blitz with a limited role. Please, no more Fackrell.

CB (6): Alexander, House, Jackson, King, Williams, Waters. Unlike the situation on the offensive line, I kept the undrafted player Waters over the former 2nd round pick Rollins, unfortunately I'm not a big fan of either of them. Though Waters was injured during the Chiefs game so maybe it'll leave the door open for Rollins.

S (4): Brice, Clinton-Dix, Jones, Evans. I'm not a big fan of any of these guys, except Clinton-Dix definitely is a starting caliber safety. I'd have loved to have seen what Eric Reid could have done for them.

Special Teams (3): Crosby, Scott and long-snapper. Scott finally started looking like the big hang-time punter I saw in college over his last couple preseason games. I don't care about who gets to be the long-snapper (bring back Rob Davis!).
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Monday, August 20, 2018

The Green Bay Packers After Their First Two Preseason Games of 2018

I'd have like to seen one game on the road, obviously I will get to do just in their last two preseason games, because maybe it's just these vanilla preseason games but things seem to come to easy at home in the preseason. It's just not an accurate picture. Though it is good to see that TE Jimmy Graham is ready to give them what he was signed for.
Other than former Packers Morgan Burnett, I was underwhelmed with the Steelers' secondary, but I don't know them well enough to say whether they're any good or if it was just a bad day.

After the inevitable regular season injury to either Adams and/or Cobb, the Packers will need at least one other receiver to step up. Jake Kumerow has been the talk of training camp and the star of their first two preseason games, but he just injured his shoulder. Marquez Valdez-Scantling had a big game against the Titans and followed it up with one catch. DeAngelo Yancey has taken a lot of snaps and provided little. I'm not sure what Geronimo Allison is up to. If Kumerow is healthy he should be their No. 3 receiver, then I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep Moore and Valdez-Scantling based on potential and release everyone else.

Robert Tonyan! Though he's a bit small for tight end. I'm not ready to save him a roster spot but I'll be watching his next couple games.

So Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy are not good. Most backup tackles in the NFL are not good, and this is no surprise. If Bakhtiari or Bulaga miss regular season games, I'd hope they'd move Justin McCray tackle (at least his injury appears minor) though I'm not sure who would take over at right guard, I haven't watch Spriggs much at that position.

Kizer seems slightly better than Hundley. I think they gave Hundley his chance, he was mostly awful, and I expect their willing to give Kizer a chance (he's a first round talent!). Boyle might stick over Hundley because he can go to the practice squad (though they tried to slip Taysum Hill through waivers last season for the practice squad and that didn't work).

Muhammad Wilkerson made some plays in the backfield and ran down some guys (though I'm still suspicious after the Jets ran him off their team) and looked like a play maker in his first action. No Mike Daniels yet but I love him, and Kenny Clark too. Dean Lowry and Montravius Adams look like good rotational lineman. It's not a surprise but that D-line looks good.

Oren Burks is flying around the field, on special teams too, and is doing what I hoped he would. Blake Martinez is ready to start alongside him. Nick Perry is now back and Clay Matthews isn't being asked to do much except go nowhere on a straight four man rush (it's the boring preseason). Reggie Gilbert is still looking like a ignored player but they can't ignore him much longer during the regular season, right? Ahmad Thomas is an interesting player, but he's still a converted college safety and more of a project than actual depth. This is a thin group.

Pick-six for Tramon Williams and Josh Jackson! Williams and House seem ready to be the veteran fill-ins for the short-term while Jackson, Alexander and Kevin King develop (it doesn't appear that Jackson will need much time to develop). Though King is still not healthy enough to play. Eventually I expect they'll keep Lenzy Pipkins for depth and release everyone else. Still that's not great but better than last season.

At safety, Josh Jones isn't stepping up and I'm not a Kentrell Brice fan. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix might never make another but at least he's a legitimate starter. I'm not sure what the plan is at safety. Though I doubt they'll pursue George Iloka, I'm not a fan of his but he does look better than their in-house options.
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Sunday, August 05, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Inside Linebackers

ILB Jake Ryan has been lost for the 2018 season due to an ACL injury and here's what the Green Bay Packers will be missing without him on the field:
Also on special teams, where he played a lot of snaps last season. His effectiveness against the run surprised me, I've loved his effort on the field but viewed him as a jack of all trades, master of none. He's definitely limited in pass coverage, which is essential for a modern day NFL linebacker. While he was lacking as a starter, he will be missed, if nothing else for depth and on special teams.

Blake Martinez and Oren Burks. Without Ryan, these two are the only inside linebackers currently on the roster who were drafted. Martinez is the only one with starting experience. If crisis strikes, Clay Matthews could theoretically be moved back inside, but that doesn't seem imminent. Martinez has looked great at times, especially early last season, and he's always been a potential play maker. I knew the Packers had high hopes for Burks, they wouldn't have drafted him in the 3rd round unless they did, and the early results on Family Night look promising:
With all the different packages used in the NFL, and the emphasis on pass defense, Ryan was always going to play a limited role on defense. It doesn't help to lose someone like Ryan, but if any two inside linebackers were going to stay on the field for most of the defensive snaps, it was going to be Martinez and maybe Burks.

While none of the other inside linebackers currently in camp are going play a significant role on defense, Ryan's absence does open the possibility for one of them to sneak on to the 53-man roster for special teams purposes.

Even with Ryan, this was not going to be an area of strength heading into the season. While the team has used mid-round draft selections on Ryan, Martinez and Burks in recent years to address inside, it never was enough on its own, without also an in-house veteran or free agent addition to bridge the time from before until after these three were drafted.
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Thursday, July 19, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Tight Ends

Some years I wouldn't give the TE position a post all its own, but this has been quite the offseason.
Despite name recognition and the highlight real above, its easy to be critical of this signing. TE Jimmy Graham isn't what he was during his peak days with the Saints. According to Football Outsiders, he was the 27th best TE last season, a few spots behind the Packers's other free agent TE signing, Marcedes Lewis. While he was a big red zone target (10 TD receptions) he wasn't much of a help otherwise with a poor 59% catch rate and only 520 receiving yards on 96 targets.

But they had to have him. Over the past few seasons, the offense has struggled without a quality receiving TE. The offense stalled in 2015 without WR Jordy Nelson and a receiving TE, and the 2016 offense only got in gear after TE Jared Cook returned from an early season injury.

Also, they had to go to into free agency because to draft and develop a rookie TE is a crapshoot. After Jermichael Finley retired, they drafted Richard Rodgers, but he never developed into much and wound up signing a small contract with Philadelphia in free agency. They can't afford to miss on another Richard Rodgers.

As a receiver, Lewis will sort of duplicate Graham's role as a red zone target, which isn't a bad thing. Though neither of them will stretch the middle of the field. TE Lance Kendrick might look better in 2018 catching passes from Aaron Rodgers instead of being used as a short yardage dump-off receiver who had trouble with dropped passes, as he was in 2017.

It's depressing that Graham is only in Green Bay because the 2017 offseason was such a disaster. That's not to blame them for viewing TE Martellus Bennett as an upgrade over Jared Cook, I agreed with their decision, but it obviously backfired in about the worst way possible and set them back a year.

Despite having three veteran TEs already on the roster, the Packers have another four previously undrafted TEs coming into training camp, led by former practice squad player Emanuel Byrd, who received a dozen snaps during their embarrassing Week 17 surrender in Detroit last season. Mike McCarthy's love of blocking TEs might create an opportunity for one of them with a strong camp.
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Friday, July 13, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Running Backs

And the Green Bay Packers' fullbacks too. Unfortunately any discussion of this group has to start with this unfortunate news:
At least it's only 2 games and it had to do with an activity that's now legal in a lot of states.

Explosive you mention? Aaron Jones was the one back I wanted to see last season because of his big play ability. Six carries of more than 20 yards:
Player Attempts Average Carries of 20+ FO EYards
30-J.Williams 153 3.6 1 760
33-A.Jones 71 5.5 6 542
88-T.Montgomery 81 3.8 1 341
32-D.Mays 4 0.3 0 0
The coaches didn't trust the rookie enough to give him the bulk of the playing time, on the other hand maybe they were torn because they had two other very good running backs on the roster.

Jamal Williams. He only had one carry of greater than 20 yards to go along with an ugly 3.6 ypc average but his Effective Yards ranking by Football Outsiders was 12th best last season. That was the best season for a Packer running back since Eddie Lacy in 2014. He ran hard at the line and was one defender away from busting a big run on several carries plays last season. He should open the season as the starter.

Ty Montgomery. He can't stay healthy but he played OK last season before his injury. If he can stay healthy for 16 games (big if) the dynamic player we saw during the 2016 season could quickly return.

Devante Mays didn't show much when given an opportunity, which wasn't very often, and he was overshadowed by his fellow rookies Williams and Jones. But there's a two game suspension on Jones's horizon so Mays should make it to Week 3 before the Packers have to make a decision on him.

Joel Bouganon was an undrafted rookie in 2017 and spent some time last season with the Bears. He has an interesting combination of athleticism and size, but he might not have the straight-line speed to stick. Him and Mays might be an interesting preseason decision.

Aaron Ripkowski only had 178 snaps last season (less than 20% of offensive plays) and the idea of him as a short-yardage runner seemed to have died when he fumbled during the 2016 NFC Championship game. Last season he blocked a lot, caught a few passes out of the back field and played a lot on special teams. He'll probably do the same next season, and backup FB Joe Kerrigan will be his understudy again, if they have still have an available roster spot for a backup fullback.
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Monday, July 09, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Quarterbacks

It's been hard for me to write about the Green Bay Packers over the past few months for a couple reasons. The 2017 season showcased all of the roster weaknesses and how they could barely compete without QB Aaron Rodgers. The offseason hasn't been much better, with the departures of GM Ted Thompson and WR Jordy Nelson, the release of the latter still hurts.

But there's no time to look back and its time to look ahead to the 2018 roster. As I go through the offensive and defensive positions, I'll start with an easy position.

Here are the 2017 snap counts per NFL GSIS via Football Outsiders:
Player Snaps Off. Snap % Total QBR
7-B.Hundley 622 59.4% 41.2
12-A.Rodgers 418 39.9% 62.6
9-D.Kizer (CLE) 887 83.0% 29.4
8-T.Boyle 0 0% 0
There's no question who the starter is going to be.
While Rodgers's Total QBR fell by over 10 points in 2017 from 2016, most of the fall might have come from his only start after breaking his collarbone, a 3 INT performance in Carolina. There should be no concern about his return from injury, he came back from his previous collarbone injury to win the 2014 MVP.

Brett Hundley is still on the roster. He was useless in most of his starts last season, with an inexplicably good game in Pittsburgh in-between. He has no trade value anymore. He's not practice squad eligible and I can't see them keeping a 3rd QB on the 53-man roster. It won't happen until the end of the preseason, but they're going to release him.

DeShone Kizer. He was so terrible last season in Cleveland. Though he does have NFL size and athleticism, and his college stats are good. They paid too much in trade for him, but he should be better than his 2017 Total QBR of 29.4 and also better than Brett Hundley. Also, he's still so young.

Tim Boyle. How young is Kizer? He's a year younger than undrafted rookie Tim Boyle, who also has NFL size and athleticism though his college stats are a disaster. He sat out the 2016 season after transferring to Eastern Kentucky and he was a lot better in 2017 as their starter. Though he threw too many INTs last season in college. He's a candidate for the practice squad, where they usually stash a Joe Callahan-type, but he might be so raw that another better option could appear on the waiver wire during the preseason.
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Friday, May 25, 2018

Former Jaguar TE Marcedes Lewis Signed With The Packers

I'm a little mixed on the signing of TE Marcedes Lewis. He's an OK receiver (ranked in the mid-20s overall by Football Outsiders last season, with a poor 50% catch rate) but he's an outstanding blocker and I love what he can bring to their run offense.
And if the Packers go with a 13 personnel formation it can create a one-on-one size mismatch in coverage or a jumbo run formation, which is probably making Mike McCarthy's eyes light up.

Unfortunately this reminds me of all the good I thought was coming from the signing of Martellus Bennett last season, which instead was a disaster. Of course my disgust of that signing shouldn't disqualify Lewis. This will be a great signing, this will be a great signing...

Speaking of great TEs, Jermichael Finley had something to say:
Sometimes it's unclear what Dez Bryant is doing on a particular play. Given all the nasty looks Aaron Rodgers has showed his receivers in past seasons for running the wrong routes, Bryant might receive a death stare once per game and maybe Gute too for signing him in the first place.
PFF ran the numbers and Bryant didn't grade as an elite receiver because he only effectively runs three routes. Rodgers and Bryant might never achieve the mind meld necessary to work together and Bryant is unlikely to provide the sideline deep threat that the offense needs. Those are good reasons not to pursue him but then I take a look at the current depth chart...
and it makes me worry about any injuries. Lewis should (knock on wood) be a solid signing. All the signs point to danger regarding Bryant but that WR depth chart...Someone better step up during the preseason. 
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