Wednesday, June 21, 2017

The Ballad of Letroy Guion, Hawaii Edition

Wednesday morning, the Green Bay Packers twitter account had the following message:
If only his birthday had been a day later...
I wouldn't expect this arrest alone would mean he's going to be released. He's already received a second chance after his arrest in 2015 while in possession of a lot of cash and pot, and he was still part of their 2017 plans though he's already suspended for the first 4 games of the season. Maybe this arrest will lead to an automatic longer suspension by the NFL but I'm not an NFL code of conduct guru.

According to Football Outsiders, Guion's 504 snaps last season were second only to DT Mike Daniels, so he was important to their defensive scheme. The Packers did sign free agent DT Ricky Jean Francois and drafted DT Montravius Adams in the 3rd round, maybe both were acquired with an eye towards replacing Guion anyway. But they already have to replace the snaps given last season to DT Mike Pennel, who's not a big loss but those snaps have to be taken up by someone, so releasing Guion would give them little depth behind Daniels and NT Kenny Clark if Adams isn't ready and/or Francois doesn't work out.

At least the Packers aren't in any bind if they have to release Guion. According to Over the Cap, his release would stick them with only $166,666 in dead money when they already have over $18 million in cap space.

It seems like the only time I write about Guion is when he does something stupid. Never trust a former Viking, I guess.

Friday, June 16, 2017

What Will The Packers Offensive Scheme Look Like in 2017?

It's been a roller coaster ride for the Green Bay Packers's offense over the past two seasons. The loss of WR Jordy Nelson in 2015 turned a high powered 2014 machine into an offense that produced the lowest completion percentage of QB Aaron Rodgers's career. Eventually the wheels were put back on last season when Nelson returned, but he wasn't the same until late 2016 which coincided with the return of TE Jared Cook and the emergence of Ty Montgomery as a running back. After all three players were in place and back in game shape, the offense clicked. Though Cook is now a Raider, the signing of TE Martellus Bennett should be an upgrade and they'll likely be even better next season.

I focused primarily on the defense this offseason and I've realized that I haven't written at all about the departure of associate head coach Tom Clements. It's telling that he hasn't caught on with another team this offseason when other top former Packer offensive assistants like Ben McAdoo and Joe Philbin have both had head coaches stints after leaving Green Bay. The injury to Jordy Nelson in 2015 took center stage that season, but it's dance partner was Mike McCarthy's decision to give away and then take back mid-season play calling duties. The departure of Clements but the return of DC Dom Capers seems like a sign that Mike McCarthy thinks bigger changes need to happen on offense than defense.
What makes the situation in Atlanta so much better than Green Bay? Here's what Doug wrote in his article:
It's just that he's operating with a schematic handicap, and it affects not only the entire offense but also Rodgers' faith in what he sees. And when a quarterback has to wait for receivers to get open on their own as opposed to with help from route concepts, it leads to extra defensive pressure as blocks break down over time.
Rodgers still averaged 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt last season, tying for fourth in the league. Watch him on tape and imagine how his stats would surge if he had, say, Atlanta's offense from last season. That's why he's this high on the list: He's a better player than his scheme allows him to be.
It's true, the Packers have been running a scheme that requires their skill players beat the other team's skill players on a weekly basis without much help. That might not be much of a problem in 2017 but it was a big problem in 2015 (and could be a problem in the future if injuries occur). I wasn't expecting them to change their scheme mid-2015 when Nelson was lost in the preseason but it wasn't changed over the 2016 offseason either. Maybe it was effectively changed when Tom Clements wasn't asked back in January.

The Packers haven't given anything away in public OTAs this offseason, and they might not even show any new looks this preseason. During games, the announcers sometimes talk about how many plays there are in McCarthy's playbook. Maybe the Packers intend to explore a different part of that playbook after the departure of Clements with more of the weekly offensive scheme in the hands of McCarthy and hold over OC Edgar Bennett (who as a player thrived in a West Coast style offense that might well suit Ty Montgomery). The offense might look a lot less like it did last season and more like it did when Rodgers was a two-time MVP.