Sunday, December 31, 2017

Packers Just Finishing Out The Season With Losses vs. Vikings and Lions

Current mood after the Green Bay Packers were completely outplayed in consecutive weeks to end the season...
I would write about their embarrassing loss on New Year's Eve in Detroit except I would say the same things I said about their embarrassing loss to Detroit at Lambeau last month. I didn't have the heart to write about last week's shutout loss to Minnesota at Lambeau last week Saturday because I would have written the same things I wrote about their shut out loss at home to Baltimore. At first I was worried that the Packers were just mailing in their last two games of the season, but they didn't. They've just been this bad for several weeks with this defense and Brett Hundley starting at quarterback.
Um, no. A defense that can allow fewer touchdowns and 3rd down conversions would have given the offense a couple more possessions per game. The overall record might have still been 7-9 but they would have made some of these games competitive.
Now onto the what they have to do to improve their team for 2018, other than just getting Aaron Rodgers back to full health.
And that's a start. I've been surprised since the end of the 2013 season (and the end of the 2015 season) that Dom Capers was still in charge of their defense. But that might be the only significant move for a pretty conservative team.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Aaron Rodgers Returns But Packers Lose in Carolina, 31-24

There shouldn't have been high playoff hopes for a Green Bay Packers team that barely avoided losing to the winless Browns in OT last week, but the return of Aaron Rodgers gave me hope. Honestly I was torn on whether he should even return this season when the playoffs seemed so unlikely. He's probably not at 100%, but there's no keeping him off the field once the doctor cleared him. Unfortunately with this loss, and if the Falcons win on Monday night, the Packers are eliminated from the playoff race. This was the start of a three game late season schedule (Panthers, Vikings, Lions) that they had to win and it immediately got off to the wrong start.

Before I get to Rodgers's return, I want to throw some more dirt on another awful season from the defense.
I don't know if this is being outcoached or outplayed, but it's embarrassing. It was probably both, the players got beat but the coaches didn't have them in a spot to succeed either. It occurred on the opening drive for the Panthers and set the tone for the game. Cam Newton outplayed them all, and they had no answer against either Christian McCaffrey or Greg Olson. This season, McCaffrey is a ranked negative as a runner, and Olson is negative as receiver, according to Football Outsiders (Newton is ranked No. 19 overall) but they all looked like Pro Bowl candidates against the Packers. And "Who's That" WR Damiere Byrd had the first two TD receptions of his NFL career against backup CB Josh Hawkins.

But still the biggest problem was the total, missing pass rush. LB Clay Matthews has had some good games this season, but he was shut out against Carolina. Only NT Kenny Clark recorded a coverage sack. But, credit where credit is due, this was probably the best game of the season for OLB Ahmed Brooks.

Overall this was a defense built and led to go nowhere this season.

As for the offense, I think this comment means that they intended to throw the ball no matter what.
They ended up throwing the ball almost 5 times for every run, though RB Aaron Jones managed to gain still 47 yards on the only 3 carries he had. That pass-heavy game plan worked for the most part, Rodgers really had a great game passing against a tough pass defense, but he showed some rust with an uncharacteristic trio of INTs into multiple coverage. Carolina has a very good run defense, so it's understandable to want to avoid it, but their pass defense is just as good. There was no reason to abandon the running game like that.

Right now, this feels like the end of the season. There are still two more games remaining, which gives them a chance to play the spoiler against two division rivals, but that's all there's left to play for assuming the Falcons win on Monday night.

Monday, December 11, 2017

Packers Avoid Embarrassing Loss To Browns in OT, 27-21

It was a battle of two teams featuring two of the worst QBs this season, Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer, and the Green Bay Packers almost let the winless Browns get the best of them. It took a team effort to struggle badly for the first three quarters, before every unit (including a big punt return from Trevor Davis on special teams) on the team contributed to the win. A lot of players deserve mention for turning it around (Davis, Davante Adams, Damarious Randall) but this was the play that set them up for the win.
But it's depressing to even write about them having to come back. While the offense and defense eventually made the plays in the 4th quarter and OT that led to the win, those same two units led them into this deficit in the first place.

Hundley's day was statistically solid, but there was one stat that shows the problem; 5.8 ypa, which is about as bad as any quarterback is going to deliver. There was no vertical threat and the deep passes that were attempted were commonly thrown into double-coverage. Combine that a ground game that only produced 3.1 ypc, and early game struggles on 3rd down, and it led to an anemic offense for most of the game. The only quick fix to these problems is the return of Aaron Rodgers.

This quote summed up the current state of the defense:
The Packers’ pass rush was almost non-existent and defensive coordinator Dom Capers couldn’t blitz because of the coverage situation. Trying to win against the Panthers playing that way will be difficult.
The run defense got mauled too, but that's a lesser problem behind being unable to rush the passer and cover receivers. They can't do anything too aggressive to try and stop the passing game, instead they just play it pretty much straight with an ineffective 4-man rush and a mix of zone and press coverage (sometimes on the same play) to try and confuse the defense. If it's not confusing or slowing down DeShone Kizer, then I'm not sure who it's going to confuse.

Nothing would have been worse than a loss, but this win showcased all the things they haven't been able to do on offense or defense for most of the season.

Monday, December 04, 2017

Packers Win In OT over Bucs, 26-20

This was not the game I expected from the Green Bay Packers. The Buccaneers entered this game with an offense that couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop the pass, so of course the Packers allowed a 100 yard rushing game to Peyton Barber (which more than doubled his total yards rushing for the season) and QB Brett Hundley was held to under 100 yards passing.
I expected more from Hundley after he had a career game last week against the Steelers. Instead, he stunk it up against a terrible pass defense. Even though he probably faced as little pressure in this game as any he's started this season. At least he knew to run when the play broke down, which led to 66 yards rushing for the game including multiple runs for 1st downs. His legs were more valuable than his arms. Somehow the Packers converted 42% of their 3rd down attempts while not being able to throw the ball.

The beginning of the end for Hundley happened during their first drive. He looked pretty good at first, but then he missed Geronimo Allison for a wide open touchdown in the corner of the end zone and he never got his accuracy back. He only threw downfield a couple more times during the game, one of which was picked off, and the only reason his other downfield passes weren't picked off was because he usually threw them out of bounds. Mike McCarthy almost exclusively called screen passes the rest of the game, which was probably for the best but it left the offense dead for most of the second quarter and second half. They did manage to wake up to tie the game at the end of the 4th quarter, and in OT, because of a big dose of Hundley, Williams and Jones running (not Hundley passing).

At least the ground game was great. The Buccaneers are actually decent against the run this season, but they were missing a couple D-lineman and only Bucs' DT Gerald McCoy was much of a threat (he recorded 2 of their 4 tackles for a loss in this game). RB Jamaal Williams showed the downfield running that led them to selecting him in the 4th round, but he still doesn't have the home run ability that RB Aaron Jones showed on his only carry of the game, in OT when ran for the winning touchdown.
The Buccaneers line is a mess and the Packer pass rush woke up for the first time in a while with seven sacks and fumble recovery off one of them for a touchdown. But the Bucs ran the ball (though they shouldn't have been able to) and they killed them on screen passes (mostly to Barber, who led the Bucs in rushing and receiving).

In past seasons, I've looked at the Packers' defense and thought they really need to shore up one or two areas and it would make everything better. But now, no one area is especially terrible but no one area is especially good either. With the exception of their starting defensive tackles, they can't do much better up front than Clark and Daniels, they could stand to upgrade at every other position. Not that there isn't a role for all of their starters on the team (or in the NFL) but every position could use someone pushing them for a starting job. They've managed to turn a flawed defense into a uniformly below average unit.

I've been shocked that DC Dom Capers has kept his job every year since the end of the 2013 season (that defense was awful, and a couple years removed from his truly great 2010 season defense) but this feels like the end of the line. There's been no major Nick Collins or Sam Shields injury to point at as a reason why next season will be better. This defense is just not good enough as a whole.

I haven't been expecting a playoff run ever since it was apparent that Hundley was not ready to play (I'll give him a pass for his terrible relief appearance in Minneapolis but he's looked bad since his first start against the Saints). All I've wanted was for them to compete. But when they win without Aaron Rodgers (Bears, Buccaneers) it's against terrible teams in an ugly fashion. As bad as Hundley looks, he's had some good moments (Steelers game) but the defense has looked bad in one way or another in every game.

As for the rest of the season, they should beat the Browns (Kizer is one of the few QBs in the league worse than Hundley) and then they might be lucky to win one more game (at Carolina, home vs. Vikings, at Detroit) if they don't have Aaron Rodgers.

If they do have Aaron Rodgers, that would at least give them a chance though I don't see how the Vikings' offense doesn't carve up the Packers D at this point and I'd rather not see Rodgers play in a collarbone game rematch this season. At best, that's 9 wins, if Rodgers is back this season. I'd consider sitting him no matter what but it's going to be hard (impossible?) to keep him off the field if the doctors clear him to play. Even if they run the table, 10 wins might not be enough this season for the Wild Card. There are a lot of guys playing/coaching for their jobs and they're not going to give up on this season, as unlikely as the playoffs seem. I should probably just forget about all this talk and just hope they don't find someway to lose to the Browns next week.