Monday, October 23, 2017

Packers Lose To Saints, 26-17: It's Time To Talk About Brett Hundley

I had high hopes for the Green Bay Packers in QB Brett Hundley's first career NFL start. The Saints' defense is good, but not great, and almost the entire Packer starting offensive line was back this week. RB Aaron Jones has emerged as threat on the ground. Instead this happened:
The only way it could have been worse is if he had a bunch of turnovers. Otherwise this is as bad as it gets. Look at all those passes within 10 yards, there's nothing to force the defense to respect the deep ball or protect the middle of the field. His protection was lousy for most of the game, he rarely had a clean pocket to step up into, and when he extended the play his receivers weren't getting open.

Maybe this was by design and HC Mike McCarthy wanted to keep the game plan conservative. Maybe this isn't just on Hundley, though his downfield accuracy wasn't always the best. His line could have blocked better and his receivers weren't getting open. I also have to watch the All-22 film later this week to see what was going on in the secondary.

Both of their touchdown drives were real, Jones was great on the ground and Hundley completed a couple really good passes on the 2nd touchdown drive. With more experience, it might only gets better from here. But with his huge head start; it's his 3rd year on the team, in the same offense, and with a whole week to prepare, I expected a lot more. How the rest of the team plays almost doesn't matter if he's this bad the rest of the season.

And the defense forced two INTs, which they have to do to help the offense out. The Packer pass rush had trouble against a good Saint offensive line and QB Drew Brees almost always had a clean pocket to step up into. They allowed a lot of yards but it might not have looked so bad if the Packers' offense could have stayed on the field (only 4 for 11 on 3rd down). It wasn't a great performance, but they gave them a chance to win.

It's a downer to watch Hundley have such a bad game going into the bye week. There's a long break ahead, no game until Monday night November 6 and then another home game, this time against the Lions. Hopefully the coaches and Hundley learn a lot from this game and he looks much better by then.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Checking In on The Packers' 2017 Defense Through Six Games

There's going to be a step-down on offense (hopefully just a small one) with QB Brett Hundley which is going to put pressure on the Green Bay Packers' defense to step it up.
The defense comes in ranked 23rd by Pro Football Focus, and 18th at Football Outsiders. But as the PFF article notes, injuries to key players (Nick Perry, Mike Daniels, Morgan Burnett) have held them back. Daniels and Perry played the past couple weeks, but while Daniels is not currently listed on the injury report and he hasn't since duplicated his Week 1 dominance against the Seahawks. Perry has been playing with a cast after hand surgery and he hasn't been as effective since his return, being one-handed. Burnett is still currently out of practice dealing with an injured hamstring.

Even at 100%, the defense has been limited by a lack of playmaking in the secondary and not much from either of their star edge rushers (though Perry's got a good excuse). Free agent OLB Ahmed Brooks hasn't made much of a difference yet (currently limited by a back injury). Though LB Blake Martinez has been outstanding at times, and so has rookie S Josh Jones. Their injuries at cornerback were ridiculous against the Vikings, though House, King and Randall all seem currently on track to play next Sunday against the Saints. They'll probably still be without Burnett, and even with their cornerbacks potentially returning, they'll need more from their safeties than they've been providing.

Meanwhile, the usually awful Saints defense has been much better this season, currently they're ranked ahead of the Packers by both PFF and Football Outsiders, in large part thanks to rookie CB Marshon Lattimore. It's not exactly a big test for Hundley, the Saints still have issues on defense and they'll be playing them at Lambeau, but it won't look good if he struggles at home with a week to prepare against a mid-tier defense, plus he gets back his starting tackles (both currently limited in practice).

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Aaron Rodgers Will Have Surgery, Packers Sign Jerod Evans (of course)

The combination of having a broken collarbone on his throwing shoulder and the need to have surgery is probably the worst news for QB Aaron Rodgers that the Green Bay Packers could have heard. This isn't going to be like 2013 when he came back from a broken collarbone after having missed several weeks. Even then, when he did come back for the final two games of the season, he wasn't as good as usual because he'd been standing on the sidelines and not practicing for a while. Given usual cautiousness of Packers' training staff, I'm expecting his 2017 season is over.

So it was obvious that the Packers would sign QB Jerod Evans to replace him. Who's Jerod Evans?
I know there's a petition for them to sign QB Colin Kaepernick instead and it really is historically ridiculous that he isn't on an NFL roster. Rodgers himself thinks Kaep should be on somebody's roster, and I agree with him. But GM Ted Thompson, with only a couple exceptions, avoids signing veterans and looks for the youngster with upside. Signing Kaepernick would have not been a typical move for the Packers and signing Evans is.

It shouldn't be lost in this that there's a lot to like about Evans. He's big, fast, and he's got a strong arm. He was great for Virginia Tech last season and on the scout team he'll probably be good at pretending the opponent's QB, whether that QB is a traditional pocket passer or more mobile. And they wanted to promote QB Joe Callahan to the active roster now as the backup (no veteran was going to pick up the playbook in a couple days, it has to be Callahan this week) so it made sense that the new No. 3 QB should be eligible for the practice squad.

Speaking of things lost in this, to open a spot for Callahan they placed CB Quinten Rollins on injured reserve. I'm not a fan of Rollins, but I'd really like to see CB Josh Hawkins spend more time on the bench and losing Rollins doesn't help make that possible.

The big problem with Evans is that he's only played one season of FBS (he was previously at community college). Who advised him to leave for the NFL after only one year of college? After being signed as an undrafted free agent, he didn't even make it into training camp with the Eagles before being released in late May. The Packers have found arguably the least experienced QB possible.

Back in 2013, the Packers rotated Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn into the starting lineup to replace Rodgers. The situation is different this time, Hundley is established as the obvious replacement. But the offensive line is a wreck at the moment and it's possible that Hundley could wind up injured too. Then it's down to Callahan and The Least Experience Player in the NFL. There's no way they could be competitive in a game over the next couple weeks if the worst case scenario occurred and they had to turn to Evans, who's coming off an injury from last May. I expect they feel that the new No. 3 isn't someone they'll actually have to turn to, but that decision seems risky at the moment.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Packers Lose To The Vikings, Lose Aaron Rodgers

My first thought is that losing QB Aaron Rodgers for most of the season or the entire season is all that really needs to be said about the Green Bay Packers's loss to the Vikings in Minneapolis.
My second thought is that I'm a huge Packers fan, and I'll keep watching and rooting for them. Hopefully Bakhtiari and Bulaga can come back soon. Otherwise they'll be stuck with their 5th string LT and the dude they signed off the Cardinals practice squad at RT. And hopefully LG Lane Taylor can come back soon, otherwise QB Brett Hundley isn't going to have much of a chance (see the beating he took from the Vikings on Sunday) and they won't be able to run the ball much. It was like watching the preseason offensive unit all over again (except with the starting wide receivers) as the game wound down.

The defense held up surprisingly well after they were forced to give Lenzy Pipkins and Josh Hawkins substantial playing time at cornerback. They forced two turnovers that made the score a lot closer than the game on the field actually was. However it came against a non-juggernaut Vikings offense that was already without arguably their best three starters (Bradford, Cook, Diggs).

But at this point all the long-term hopes for this season can be put away. It's time to get as many guys healthy again as possible and fight like an underdog for each win.