Monday, September 24, 2018

2018 Week 3: Packers Lose An Ugly Game In D.C. to the Redskins, 31-17

My first reaction was that this game exposed all of the Packers weaknesses on defense. A confused secondary, led by safety Kentrell Brice, who's first post-game comment was to throw his coach under the bus.
The buck stops somewhere else! I'm not a fan of his (unfortunately I don't see his replacement currently on the roster) but he wasn't the only one. CB Jaire Alexander, CB Tramon Williams, and CB Davon House all had pass interference penalties (on one drive!) as part of a disastrous first half. Washington has one of the least impressive groups of receivers in the NFL (Richardson only had that one big reception, Doctson had zero receptions, and Crowder had a nice game as their No. 3 receiver). Whatever adjustments were made at halftime worked because those problems didn't show up in the second half. But most teams who commit 11 penalties for 115 penalty yards are going to lose.

They also had a lot of trouble on the defending the edge against the run. While Adrian Peterson looked a lot better than I expected, his big 40+ yard run went right at OLB Kyler Fackrell, who continues to receive playing time for no good reason. OLB Reggie Gilbert wasn't much better against the run on the edge, often getting swallowed up inside.

The pass defense's biggest struggle was against TEs, Davis and Reed were killing them. It was the first game for ILB Oren Burks but I'm not exactly sure how much he played as he rotated with Morrison and Whitehead inside. But it wasn't a problem in the 2nd half, maybe Whitehead was playing more later in the game. Morrison was dumped by the Colts because of his problems in coverage, so he's not part of the solution.

And zero pass rush. Once DC Mike Pettine started dialing up some DB blitzes, they got some pressure, but the front four did little outside of the roughing the passer call on Clay Matthews. Those calls are an embarrassment for the NFL, it's called a tackle and it shouldn't be a penalty, but that call was not why they lost the game.

I don't know if I'd even blame the defense for the loss though they've got to find a way to create more of a pass rush (legally) and improve their pass defense. But on second viewing, the offense found a way to maximize their worst plays and avoid their effective ground game.
Their offense is better with Randall Cobb but I can't understate how bad he was on Sunday. He was targeted 11 times and those 11 plays went for 23 yards and a fumble. He was targeted every sixth play, no one was targeted more and he produced absolutely nothing. Adams also had a drop (and a TD reception) and TE Lance Kendricks continued his pass-dropping ways from the preseason with another big drop in this game. There's no reason for Kendricks to play anywhere except special teams. Overall, it's amazing the Packers only lost by 14 points when they committed 115 penalty yards and their No. 1 target was clearly their worst offensive player.

And Mike McCarthy, if you're averaging almost 6 yards on the ground and your most dynamic running back has just returned (Aaron Jones had 7 yards per carry! On only 6 (team leading!) carries) and your franchise quarterback is hobbling around on an injured knee, why don't you run the ball? Over 50 pass plays were called and only 15 running plays. Yes, they were trailing the entire game, but those passes to Cobb weren't working all game. And the Redskins struggled covering Ty Montgomery out of the backfield. Rodgers had something to do with throwing all those attempts to Cobb but the last pass attempt to him was a designed quick screen pass that led to his fumble. A lot of this is always second-guessing but McCarthy's 0 for 3 this season in coming up with offensive game plans that out-coach their opponent and he didn't adjust at halftime.

A week ago, their upcoming Week 4 game hosting Buffalo looked like a relaxing Sunday, before the Bills stomped all over the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 3. The players need to play better and the coaches, especially on offense, need to come up with a better game plan. This game was bad, but they're a better team than what they showed against the Redskins.

Monday, September 17, 2018

2018 Week 2: Packers Host The Vikings, Ends in 29-29 Tie

I'm really OK with this tie. It's not a loss (really, that can matter in tie-breakers) and the Vikings are a really good team who could have easily won if their kicker hadn't missed three field goals (they should bring back Ryan Longwell). Of course, the Packers could have won if this hadn't been called a penalty.
I get it, it's not an illegal hit, but they didn't lose the game because of this call. They had other chances to win.

I was really disappointed in Mike McCarthy. The Packers were in 3rd and long too many times and ran the ball about half as many times as they threw it. Ty Montgomery was really effective as a runner, averaging over 6 yards per carry, but he only had 5 attempts. Also the play calling, after Clinton-Dix intercepted Kirk Cousins with just over 2 minutes to go. They probably couldn't have run for a first down but they could have made the Vikings use all their time outs before the Packers kicked a field goal. I guess he wanted to put the game away with a first down, or a touchdown, and his defense was probably on fumes in the heat, but he has to put that pressure on the Vikings (make them use all their timeouts) and make their final drive as difficult as possible.

It wasn't a great game for Mike Pettine either, though it's a lot to ask of him to know everything about his players in only his 2nd game with the Packers. When Kevin King went down with a groin injury, replacing him on with Davon House over Josh Jackson looks like a big mistake in hindsight (he probably won't do that again). Also, giving Kyler Fackrell meaningful defensive snaps isn't going to work, but he only has so many outside linebackers on the roster to work with.

While I understand why both coaches did what they did, neither of them pushed the right buttons with those critical decisions. I don't have anything to say against any of the players, they played as well as I would expect. I'm sure Aaron Rodgers would have loved a due over on that two play sequence in the middle of OT when at the Minnesota 37 yard line he fumbled a hand-off attempt (play action? I'm not sure what he wanted to do there) and then a sack to move them out of field goal range, but I'm not saying anything critical of him while trying to play on one leg.

It's disappointing but it's not a disaster either. The next three games could be an interesting run, next week against the Redskins (who didn't look good against the Colts) and then back-to-back games against two of the weaker teams so far this season (Lions and Bills). Just focus on the next game and work on staying out of the loss column.

Monday, September 10, 2018

2018 Week 1: Rodgers Rallies The Packers to 24-23 Victory Over The Bears

I gave up on this game. After Aaron Rodgers's left knee was rolled to it's side on a sack (knees are not supposed to bend that way!) he couldn't walk off the field under his own power which led to this:
That's it for the 2018 season. They'd manage a few wins (DeShone Kizer couldn't go winless for another entire season, could he?) but they're not going anywhere with an improving but still mediocre defense and old school play calling from Mike McCarthy. Kizer did give me a little hope that he wasn't going to be a repeat of Brett Hundley with a drive into the red zone but on the drive's final play he ran right into LB Khalil Mack's arms for a fumble. On the next drive, an ill-advised screen pass was called and Kizer threw a pick-six right to Mack (they must be good buddies by this point) for a 17-0 halftime deficit. Kizer was a different type of awful than Hundley, not as ineffective but more turnover prone. Wake me up in September 2019.

But then...
and then...
then another touchdown pass to Davante Adams, and then the dagger!!!
This is old school, but it reminded me of a 1989 game against the Saints (without the QB injury), when I completely gave up on a game though I shouldn't.

The rust in the first half (pre-knee injury) had vanished. The pass protection was great and Rodgers's passes were just beyond the defenders' fingers. Bears CB Kyle Fuller dropped a game ending INT but bad hands is why those guys were switched to DB in the first place.

There were still some zeroes in this game. Newly named starting RG Justin McCray was terrible in the first half (it looked like he missed the rushing DL on the stunt who went unblocked when Rodgers suffered his knee injury) and much better in the second. Clay Matthews is still useful but every few weeks he has one of these awful games, his only big play was a roughing the passer penalty on 4th down that gave the Bears another chance at the end of the game. Jamaal Williams seemed to have a knack for running into a pile instead of finding some daylight.

A knee injury for Rodgers is bad but it's much better than a lost season. Maybe it's an MCL sprain, which he obviously can play through but who knows when it would be healed. It's going to be a struggle to win the division or make the playoffs, so these divisional games are must-wins. Rodgers recovered in the second half to pull their season back from the brink, but that's still a dangerous place to find themselves after one game. Whew!