Friday, April 27, 2018

With The 18th Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, The Green Bay Packers Select Louisville CB Jaire Alexander

The Green Bay Packers caused some whiplash in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL draft by trading down from No. 14 to No. 27, and then trading back up to No. 18 to select Louisville CB Jaire Alexander.

But first about the trades, which reminded me of last year when they traded out of the 1st and into the high 2nd round before drafting CB Kevin King. The move down netted them a 4th round pick (Vince Biegel) for basically no cost.
A 5th and a 6th round pick also changed hands but neither of those picks have a lot of value. If Alexander was always their guy, and they took advantage of the Saints to turn a 2018 3rd round pick into a 2019 1st round pick, that's a nifty piece of work. However, should Alexander have been the guy?
Alexander to the Packers wasn't talked about until Mike Mayock's mock draft came out on Wednesday. I didn't want the Packers to reach for a corner just because the depth chart is paper thin, but a productive college player who had a fantastic workout isn't a reach. However there are reasons why Alexander was a mid-1st round player while a similar CB in Ohio State's Denzel Ward was always considered a Top 10 pick and ended up at No. 4 overall to the Browns.
It was already mentioned above that Alexander missed time in 2017 due to injury (concern #1) and in the above video it's discussed that he gave up a lot of touchdowns (concern #2). That second concern seems like something that can be fixed with experience and coaching, but injury concerns can plague a guy. But if Alexander can stay healthy, he could be as good as Denzel Ward.

But trading down meant that the Packers passed on Florida State SS Derwin James, who was typically in the Top 10 in every mock draft.
The Packers needed a cornerback more than another safety, but going into the draft I thought that if they have a chance to draft a great defensive back, take him and figure out positions later. One knock on James is that while Alexander posted fantastic times in the shuttle and 3-cone, which measures quickness, James skipped both at the NFL combine. Maybe that was enough to bring some doubt into it, plus the fact that the Packers really needed a cornerback more than a safety.

There's some risk here with Alexander because of past injuries and college inconsistencies (too many touchdowns allowed) but he's a 1st round talent and not a reach. Plus the move back to acquire an extra 1st round pick in 2019 made it a successful 1st round for 2018.

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Or The Green Bay Packers Select CB Josh Jackson

Iowa CB Josh Jackson is exactly the sort of quality player I want the Green Bay Packers to select in a later round, not the 1st round.
Jackson has all the tools, and the great college career, you could want except the great speed. Jackson's former college teammate, CB Desmond King, entered the draft process last year with the expectation of being drafted in the 1st or 2nd round before he fell to the 5th round due to speed concerns. It all worked out for the Chargers, who plugged King into the slot and he became one of the best rookie CBs in the NFL. But the Packers have let slot corners like Corey Hayward and Micah Hyde leave in recent years so I can't imagine they'll use their highest draft choice in years on a slot corner to replace the ones they lost.

The more I look at No. 14 overall, the more it seems like a no man's land. I'm thinking right along with Zach Kruse, there aren't 14 impact players in this draft and the Packers are going to be a couple spots away from drafting one. Trading up is going to cost a lot (the Jets gave up three 2nd round picks to move up three spots). While that was at the top of the draft for a QB, a team like the Raiders at No. 10 might be looking at their choice of SS Derwin James or CB Minkah Fitzpatrick vs. missing out on an impact player at No. 14. To make it worth the Raiders's time might cost the Packers their 2019 1st round pick, which I hope they don't offer.

If OLB Harold Landry isn't there at No. 14, it might be time to move down but I'm not sure which team wants to move up. If they have to stand pat, they could look at one of the offensive lineman (Will Hernandez or Mike McGlinchey) or a project like Marcus Davenport, who might be a better fit in a different defense.

Still, it's the 14th overall selection and they should be able to draft a quality player even if he's a clear step behind someone like James or Fitzpatrick. The best available player might look unspectacular and that might OK.

Friday, April 20, 2018

With The 14th Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, The Green Bay Packers Select

Here are a couple of basic expectations I have from the Green Bay Packers in the upcoming draft. They need help in the secondary, but please don't reach for a DB. If Denzel Ward or Derwin James is still available, great, but don't go looking for the 4th or 5th best DB with No. 14 overall, just take the best available player at any non-Quarterback position. And please don't trade up for one of those DBs though I'm not against trading down.

I'm not a college scout so I'm looking at other mock drafts to see who's getting mentioned. Rob Rang's 5.0 mock draft has the Packers selecting Boston College OLB Harold Landry.
If you're looking for a 2018 need pick, this is not for you. Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are penciled in as the high priced starters (and they should be worth the money in 2018, if they stay healthy) while Reggie Gilbert and Vince Biegel are lurking in the background as Making The Leap candidates. Kyler Fackrell is also there, doing whatever it is he does, mostly just taking playing time away from Reggie Gilbert.

But Landry will be on the roster for the next five seasons while Matthews is a free agent in 2019. Perry's not going anywhere with that fat contract and all the potential dead money attached to it. Gilbert and Biegel have upside (drink!) but neither one is a lock to become a future starter. It never hurts to have too much pass rush and it's easy to see Landry becoming their best pass rusher in a year.