Thursday, March 01, 2007


Moving Day! I've been working with the guys over at SportsBlogs Nation for the past few weeks and I've agreed to start blogging at a new address as part of their group of blogs. Please come visit me at www.acmepackingcompany.com. Thanks!

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Good news for Chicago which means it won't help the Packers. Chicago is coming off a Super Bowl season, but they have a lot of work to do and have made little progress. Two star players are being shopped for trades, they still have QB Rex Grossman at the top of the depth chart, and assistant five assistant coaches had left. They took one step forward by resigning Lovie Smith with a four year extension. Still losing LB Lance Briggs and RB Thomas Jones would be a step back for the team.

It sounds like GM Ted Thompson is only offering RB Ahman Green a one year deal. It wouldn't be surprising if Green has one more quality season in him, but that's probably it. Green should not accept a one year deal, because this will probably be his last multi-year contract and he might find some team, maybe the NY Giants, desperate for a new running back and willing to give him a big contract. Hopefully Thompson doesn't blink and cave into Green's demands.

I was wondering why it was taking so long for QB Brett Favre to undergo his ankle surgery. Apparently it is all Favre's fault. As much pain as he has probably played through during his football career, it isn't surprising that he put this off for so long. But to put it off for five years until your wife tells you to do it?

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

After I compliment GM Ted Thompson for having someone like DE/DT Cullen Jenkins under contract next season for around $1.5 million non-guaranteed, he goes out and gives Jenkins a four year contract with around $6 million guaranteed. Thompson said "I still think his best football is ahead of him. It was a good opportunity for the club to try to get a long-term deal with a good evolving player." It isn't that Jenkins is evolving, but he finally got more consistent playing time over the last few weeks when it was obvious DE KGB wasn't playing that great. Jenkins has always shown good inside pass rush moves which was how he made the roster in the first place back in 2004 as an undrafted free agent. The mystery is why it took him so long to receive consistent playing time. As of today, this was too much money to give to a restricted free agent that has only started a handful of games. After the free agent signings begin on March 2nd, this contract might look like a bargain. With DT Vonnie Holliday getting a $7 million guaranteed contract, DT Cory Redding getting the franchise tag, and few, if any, quality pass rushing defensive tackles available in this year's draft, teams might start throwing much bigger money at any defensive tackle with a pulse and a prayer of providing an inside pass rush. Thompson was probably concerned that Jenkins would receive an even bigger contract from another team once free agency began, although signing Jenkins would probably cost the other team a lot of money plus their 1st round draft pick. Thompson seemingly overpaid for DE Aaron Kampman this time last season and that was a great move. Hopefully his luck continues and Jenkins is just as good, or even better, next season.

Sunday, February 25, 2007

So who at the combine might be catching the Packers attention?

I said the Packers need a defensive lineman to provide an inside pass rush for most of last season, but then DTs Corey Williams and Cullen Jenkins came on to provide it during the last few games. It still might be the position to draft because DE KGB has declined the past two seasons and Jenkins might be a free agent after next season. Michgan's DT Alan Branch and Clemson's DE Gaines Adams should be long gone by the Packers pick. Maybe someone like Louisville's Amobi Okoye, who is one of the biggest stories at the combine because the guy is only 19 years old and set to become the youngest player ever drafted. Okoye isn't a pass rusher, more of a nose tackle like NT Ryan Pickett, and wouldn't fit an obvious need in 2007, but with someone so young he could be providing solid performance and depth at the defensive tackle position for the next ten seasons.

The Packers need to add a good receiving tight end. Here are the 40 times for tight ends. Arizona State's Zach Miller has been a stud for years but Miami's Greg Olson blew them all away with a 4.47. Unfortunately he didn't show too much production at Miami. Both players would be a reach at 16.

The Packers need depth at wide receiver too. Some mock drafts have the Packers selecting USC's WR Dwayne Jarrett at 16. Unfortunately for Jarrett he didn't run at the combine officially and now his speed is coming into question. Of course the Packers would love Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson, but he will never fall to 16 and might be the first player selected. The receiver who did the most at the combine was Tennessee's Robert Meachem. He blazed a 4.39 in the 40, but he did not have a perfect college career, with a history of drops too, and might not be worthy of the 16th pick. Just like running back, this is another position where the Packers might wait until the 2nd or 3rd round to select someone like USC's Steve Smith or Washington State's Jason Hill.

Let the RB Marshawn Lynch talk begin! With RB Ahman Green's free agency and Lynch projected as a mid-first round draft pick, it seems like a natural prediction. GM Ted Thompson is still talking about bringing Green back (see above linked article at the bottom) but who knows. With a lot of free cap room around the league, letting Green hit the open market seems like a way to lose him. Green has been in decline since his great 2003 season and should not be brought back at any cost. Maybe this is the time to let him go.

But the Packers would be reaching by drafting Lynch at 16. Lynch should be good, but he might be the next RB J.J. Arrington too. If RB Adrian Peterson fell to 16 then the Packers should dance like New Orleans danced once it was reported that Houston signed DE Mario Williams. Assuming Peterson doesn't fall down to 16 (which he shouldn't) and Thompson doesn't trade up (which seems just as unlikely) the next prospect to discuss is Lynch. Unfortunately for Lynch there are a number of other college running backs who ran as fast or faster than him. Florida State's Lorenzo Booker, Arizona's Chris Henry, Auburn's Kenny Irons, and Ohio State's Antonio Pittman. All of these players might not have Lynch's size or eye-catching 6.21 yards/carry during his final two college seasons, but some of them will last into the 2nd and maybe the 3rd round. Plus if Green does return, then there is good depth for 2007 with RBs Vernand Morency and Noah Herron and another running back doesn't seem like a good fit.

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Detroit's GM Matt Millen is the worst GM in the NFL today and I'm so glad the Packers play his team twice every season. Millen was good for another laugh when he designated DT Cory Redding with the franchise tag. Redding had a nice 2006 season after an unremarkable first three seasons in the NFL. Detroit can use the franchise tag on Redding, they don't have another free agent this season worthy of it, and it won't kill their salary cap because they are under it by $23.8 million. Plus if rumors of a purge of players by Rod Marinelli is true, then they might even have more room under the cap to work with.

However, the laugh is because Millen is paying $6.8 million for a defensive tackle that is basically the same player as DT Cullen Jenkins. Both are lighter defensive tackles/ends that are not run stoppers, but provide a good inside pass rush. The Packers will pay Jenkins a lot less in 2006, although that is due in large part because Jenkins has one less year in service time. But if it was announced that the Packers just slapped the franchise tag on Jenkins, most casual fans would probably wonder who he is. Plus putting the tag always upsets the player tagged. Better GMs would have found a way to pay a reasonable price for an unremarkable, but valuable, player and wouldn't have upset the player in the process too.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

With all the franchise tags being placed now and the restricted free agent tenders due by March 1, the free agent season is almost upon us. The Packers have a few free agents and a couple important ones. With $28 million in cap room to work with there is enough room to resign everyone and still pursue others, if desired. Resigning DT Cullen Jenkins is important, but putting a 1st or 2nd round tender would probably persuade teams to look elsewhere. It would be a reasonable contract, between $1.3 and $1.85 million, and other teams could probably draft a player similar to him in the 1st or 2nd round anyway and hopefully lose interest. It would be surprising if any of the exclusive rights free agents weren't resigned. Resigning TE Donald Lee was a nice minimum wage signing, although Lee vanished in 2006 after a promising 2005 season.

Of the remaining unrestricted free agents, the only two that should be resigned, but not at any price, are RB Ahman Green and TE David Martin.

Green had a strong 2006 season, but his 4.0 yards/carry is a half-yard under his 2004 and career averages. Both RBs Noah Herron and Vernand Morency had a better average yards/carry than Green in 2006. Also, Green is only a season removed from major knee surgery and is about to turn 30. ESPN's Mel Kiper had his mock draft predictions scrolling at the bottom of ESPN and has the Packers selecting RB Marshawn Lynch, which is a possibility. With Green's strong return in 2006 and the weaker group of free agent running backs this offseason compared to last season's bonanza with RBs Edgerrin James and Shawn Alexander leading the way, it wouldn't be surprising to see some team overpay for Green. Green crossed the 400 carry mark during his outstanding 2003 season (including playoffs) and has never been as good since. Last season he resigned for a modest one year deal, but that won't happen this year. The Packers should let another team pay a premium price for his last few seasons.

If only Martin could stay healthy, then resigning him would be a priority. His 2006 stats look modest, but the offense played its best during the middle of the season when Martin was healthy and starting. They won 3 of 4 games in late October and early November by scoring 34 points at Miami and 31 against Arizona, with a TD pass to Martin in both games. They only scored 10 points at Buffalo, but turnovers ruined an otherwise great offensive day. Then Martin played his last healthy game in the win at Minnesota (against a great Minnesota defense) with 23 points scored. In the last seven games, the offense scored over 20 points (24 points at Seattle, but one TD scored by LB Abdul Hodge) in only two of them. They need Martin or another quality receiving TE like him. His past injury problems should keep contract offers modest so resigning him could be reasonable. Any free agent TE to replace him would have risks (such as Seattle's inconsistent TE Jerramy Stevens), so they should resign Martin but draft a TE to replace him in 2008 if he remains injury prone.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

The last several months have been pretty bad down in Miami. First QB Daunte Culpepper comes back too early from his injury and might never be the same player he was back in 2004. Then the future of the team seems to be in the hands of QB Joey Harrington. Then Nick Saban stabs them in the back and takes the head coaching job in Alabama.

Now they've started off the free agency season with a laugh by giving former Packer DT Vonnie Holliday a fat $7 million signing bonus. Looking at his career stats, he has played well for them the last two seasons. But stats are a bit misleading for Holliday. He pads them with big games and then vanishes for the rest of the season.

Holliday's big rookie season in 1998 with 8 sacks in 12 games came because he was playing opposite DE Reggie White when White was named NFL Defensive Player of the Year and then he took a step back in 1999 without White in the lineup anymore. He had 6 sacks in 10 games during his final season with the Packers in 2002, but 3 or 4 of those sacks came in a single game. After he signed a big free agent contract with Kansas City his tackle total collapsed although he had a respectable looking 5.5 sacks until you learn that he had 3 sacks in the first half of the first game of the season. His 2004 stats were dismal until Kansas City released him mid-season. The Packers played Miami last season and I only remember noticing him a couple of times. It seemed like he was only a part time starter. Just an awful signing.