Sunday, December 31, 2017

Packers Just Finishing Out The Season With Losses vs. Vikings and Lions

Current mood after the Green Bay Packers were completely outplayed in consecutive weeks to end the season...
I would write about their embarrassing loss on New Year's Eve in Detroit except I would say the same things I said about their embarrassing loss to Detroit at Lambeau last month. I didn't have the heart to write about last week's shutout loss to Minnesota at Lambeau last week Saturday because I would have written the same things I wrote about their shut out loss at home to Baltimore. At first I was worried that the Packers were just mailing in their last two games of the season, but they didn't. They've just been this bad for several weeks with this defense and Brett Hundley starting at quarterback.
Um, no. A defense that can allow fewer touchdowns and 3rd down conversions would have given the offense a couple more possessions per game. The overall record might have still been 7-9 but they would have made some of these games competitive.
Now onto the what they have to do to improve their team for 2018, other than just getting Aaron Rodgers back to full health.
And that's a start. I've been surprised since the end of the 2013 season (and the end of the 2015 season) that Dom Capers was still in charge of their defense. But that might be the only significant move for a pretty conservative team.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Aaron Rodgers Returns But Packers Lose in Carolina, 31-24

There shouldn't have been high playoff hopes for a Green Bay Packers team that barely avoided losing to the winless Browns in OT last week, but the return of Aaron Rodgers gave me hope. Honestly I was torn on whether he should even return this season when the playoffs seemed so unlikely. He's probably not at 100%, but there's no keeping him off the field once the doctor cleared him. Unfortunately with this loss, and if the Falcons win on Monday night, the Packers are eliminated from the playoff race. This was the start of a three game late season schedule (Panthers, Vikings, Lions) that they had to win and it immediately got off to the wrong start.

Before I get to Rodgers's return, I want to throw some more dirt on another awful season from the defense.
I don't know if this is being outcoached or outplayed, but it's embarrassing. It was probably both, the players got beat but the coaches didn't have them in a spot to succeed either. It occurred on the opening drive for the Panthers and set the tone for the game. Cam Newton outplayed them all, and they had no answer against either Christian McCaffrey or Greg Olson. This season, McCaffrey is a ranked negative as a runner, and Olson is negative as receiver, according to Football Outsiders (Newton is ranked No. 19 overall) but they all looked like Pro Bowl candidates against the Packers. And "Who's That" WR Damiere Byrd had the first two TD receptions of his NFL career against backup CB Josh Hawkins.

But still the biggest problem was the total, missing pass rush. LB Clay Matthews has had some good games this season, but he was shut out against Carolina. Only NT Kenny Clark recorded a coverage sack. But, credit where credit is due, this was probably the best game of the season for OLB Ahmed Brooks.

Overall this was a defense built and led to go nowhere this season.

As for the offense, I think this comment means that they intended to throw the ball no matter what.
They ended up throwing the ball almost 5 times for every run, though RB Aaron Jones managed to gain still 47 yards on the only 3 carries he had. That pass-heavy game plan worked for the most part, Rodgers really had a great game passing against a tough pass defense, but he showed some rust with an uncharacteristic trio of INTs into multiple coverage. Carolina has a very good run defense, so it's understandable to want to avoid it, but their pass defense is just as good. There was no reason to abandon the running game like that.

Right now, this feels like the end of the season. There are still two more games remaining, which gives them a chance to play the spoiler against two division rivals, but that's all there's left to play for assuming the Falcons win on Monday night.

Monday, December 11, 2017

Packers Avoid Embarrassing Loss To Browns in OT, 27-21

It was a battle of two teams featuring two of the worst QBs this season, Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer, and the Green Bay Packers almost let the winless Browns get the best of them. It took a team effort to struggle badly for the first three quarters, before every unit (including a big punt return from Trevor Davis on special teams) on the team contributed to the win. A lot of players deserve mention for turning it around (Davis, Davante Adams, Damarious Randall) but this was the play that set them up for the win.
But it's depressing to even write about them having to come back. While the offense and defense eventually made the plays in the 4th quarter and OT that led to the win, those same two units led them into this deficit in the first place.

Hundley's day was statistically solid, but there was one stat that shows the problem; 5.8 ypa, which is about as bad as any quarterback is going to deliver. There was no vertical threat and the deep passes that were attempted were commonly thrown into double-coverage. Combine that a ground game that only produced 3.1 ypc, and early game struggles on 3rd down, and it led to an anemic offense for most of the game. The only quick fix to these problems is the return of Aaron Rodgers.

This quote summed up the current state of the defense:
The Packers’ pass rush was almost non-existent and defensive coordinator Dom Capers couldn’t blitz because of the coverage situation. Trying to win against the Panthers playing that way will be difficult.
The run defense got mauled too, but that's a lesser problem behind being unable to rush the passer and cover receivers. They can't do anything too aggressive to try and stop the passing game, instead they just play it pretty much straight with an ineffective 4-man rush and a mix of zone and press coverage (sometimes on the same play) to try and confuse the defense. If it's not confusing or slowing down DeShone Kizer, then I'm not sure who it's going to confuse.

Nothing would have been worse than a loss, but this win showcased all the things they haven't been able to do on offense or defense for most of the season.

Monday, December 04, 2017

Packers Win In OT over Bucs, 26-20

This was not the game I expected from the Green Bay Packers. The Buccaneers entered this game with an offense that couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop the pass, so of course the Packers allowed a 100 yard rushing game to Peyton Barber (which more than doubled his total yards rushing for the season) and QB Brett Hundley was held to under 100 yards passing.
I expected more from Hundley after he had a career game last week against the Steelers. Instead, he stunk it up against a terrible pass defense. Even though he probably faced as little pressure in this game as any he's started this season. At least he knew to run when the play broke down, which led to 66 yards rushing for the game including multiple runs for 1st downs. His legs were more valuable than his arms. Somehow the Packers converted 42% of their 3rd down attempts while not being able to throw the ball.

The beginning of the end for Hundley happened during their first drive. He looked pretty good at first, but then he missed Geronimo Allison for a wide open touchdown in the corner of the end zone and he never got his accuracy back. He only threw downfield a couple more times during the game, one of which was picked off, and the only reason his other downfield passes weren't picked off was because he usually threw them out of bounds. Mike McCarthy almost exclusively called screen passes the rest of the game, which was probably for the best but it left the offense dead for most of the second quarter and second half. They did manage to wake up to tie the game at the end of the 4th quarter, and in OT, because of a big dose of Hundley, Williams and Jones running (not Hundley passing).

At least the ground game was great. The Buccaneers are actually decent against the run this season, but they were missing a couple D-lineman and only Bucs' DT Gerald McCoy was much of a threat (he recorded 2 of their 4 tackles for a loss in this game). RB Jamaal Williams showed the downfield running that led them to selecting him in the 4th round, but he still doesn't have the home run ability that RB Aaron Jones showed on his only carry of the game, in OT when ran for the winning touchdown.
The Buccaneers line is a mess and the Packer pass rush woke up for the first time in a while with seven sacks and fumble recovery off one of them for a touchdown. But the Bucs ran the ball (though they shouldn't have been able to) and they killed them on screen passes (mostly to Barber, who led the Bucs in rushing and receiving).

In past seasons, I've looked at the Packers' defense and thought they really need to shore up one or two areas and it would make everything better. But now, no one area is especially terrible but no one area is especially good either. With the exception of their starting defensive tackles, they can't do much better up front than Clark and Daniels, they could stand to upgrade at every other position. Not that there isn't a role for all of their starters on the team (or in the NFL) but every position could use someone pushing them for a starting job. They've managed to turn a flawed defense into a uniformly below average unit.

I've been shocked that DC Dom Capers has kept his job every year since the end of the 2013 season (that defense was awful, and a couple years removed from his truly great 2010 season defense) but this feels like the end of the line. There's been no major Nick Collins or Sam Shields injury to point at as a reason why next season will be better. This defense is just not good enough as a whole.

I haven't been expecting a playoff run ever since it was apparent that Hundley was not ready to play (I'll give him a pass for his terrible relief appearance in Minneapolis but he's looked bad since his first start against the Saints). All I've wanted was for them to compete. But when they win without Aaron Rodgers (Bears, Buccaneers) it's against terrible teams in an ugly fashion. As bad as Hundley looks, he's had some good moments (Steelers game) but the defense has looked bad in one way or another in every game.

As for the rest of the season, they should beat the Browns (Kizer is one of the few QBs in the league worse than Hundley) and then they might be lucky to win one more game (at Carolina, home vs. Vikings, at Detroit) if they don't have Aaron Rodgers.

If they do have Aaron Rodgers, that would at least give them a chance though I don't see how the Vikings' offense doesn't carve up the Packers D at this point and I'd rather not see Rodgers play in a collarbone game rematch this season. At best, that's 9 wins, if Rodgers is back this season. I'd consider sitting him no matter what but it's going to be hard (impossible?) to keep him off the field if the doctors clear him to play. Even if they run the table, 10 wins might not be enough this season for the Wild Card. There are a lot of guys playing/coaching for their jobs and they're not going to give up on this season, as unlikely as the playoffs seem. I should probably just forget about all this talk and just hope they don't find someway to lose to the Browns next week.

Monday, November 27, 2017

Packers Surprise in Pittsburgh, Lose on Last Second FG, 31-28

That was an entertaining game! The Green Bay Packers had gotten overwhelmed at home in two of their prior three games (vs. Lions and Ravens) and have lost five of their last six (all the games finished by QB Brett Hundley) so I wasn't expecting much against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but the Packers proved me wrong.
Despite a great game in Pittsburgh, I'm at the same place I was on Hundley after last week. He's a next generation Matt Flynn, a backup who can catch fire one week and become a disaster the following week. He looked much better against the Steelers than the Ravens mostly because he had good protection, and the Steelers have some serious issues in coverage (allowing deep touchdown passes to Davante Adams and Randall Cobb). Once the Steelers dialed up the pressure and forced him to do something outside of the pocket, it usually ended in an incompletion or a sack. He's still limited, but on Sunday night he did more than enough to win them the game.

All that time to throw means that the offensive line deserves credit for providing the clean pocket that led to some big plays, and a special mention for Jason Spriggs, who got the unexpected start at right tackle and probably his best game as a pro. There are still issues on the line but this was a big game for them. Hundley is only going to be as good as they are.

Also, rookie RB Jamal Williams ran hard and made some moves in the open field on his long receiving touchdown. His yards per carry isn't impressive (3.1 ypc) but the Steelers brought DBs up later in the game to take away his running lanes and stop the run. It's hard to run when their are defenders running unblocked at you in the backfield.
The defense forced three turnovers, those turnovers along with the big plays on offense kept the Packers in this game. But when the Steelers weren't turning the ball over, they were doing pretty much whatever they wanted to against the Packers D. Rookie CB Kevin King is far from a complete player, but he's their best cover corner and missed much of the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, CB Josh Hawkins and CB Davon House got roasted, mostly by WR Antonio Brown. While Brown is arguable the best player in the NFL, the Packers gave their corners safety help on seemingly every play against Brown and he still torched them.

The biggest problem was that the Packers pass rush was completely useless. Their only sack was due to tight coverage, and Roethlisberger held the ball for about 5 seconds in the pocket before DT Mike Daniels finally got to him. They gave him a clean pocket most of the night. OLB Clay Matthews was hurt and didn't play but his best pass rushing days are behind him anyway. He wouldn't have helped much on the rush, but DT Kenny Clark is probably their best player on defense this season and he also missed this game. Having his strength and energy at the line would have made a difference.

Eventually the run defense wore out, they were on the field almost the entire first half, and the tackling got sloppy, leading to a big 4th quarter for Le'Veon Bell. But to their credit, they were solid in the first half and into the 3rd quarter.

After last week's embarrassing loss to the Ravens, it has to feel good to have shown up for a road game against one of the best teams in the AFC. I'd still like them to stay competitive this season and finish with 8 wins, and this loss is a good place to start. I hate moral victories, but it's been so bad at times this season that they need to take them when they find them. In their upcoming games, they have to follow the same blueprint they followed against the Steelers; win the turnover battle, don't get away from the ground game, keep looking for those deep sideline passes, and hopefully get Kenny Clark back soon.

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Packers Shut Out At Home By Ravens

I'm writing this a couple days later than usual because I couldn't stand to think about that awful game immediately after it happened. I went and binge watched Mindhunter on Netflix instead.

Looking back a couple days later, as depressing as the game was on Sunday, it still seemed like during the game that the Green Bay Packers could have turned it around. The Baltimore Ravens offense is a mess so this game didn't feel out of reach until the 4th quarter. Despite 3 first half turnover, the Ravens only had 6 points at half. The Ravens only had 219 yards of offense for the entire game!

Otherwise, this game was a lot like their previous home loss to the Lions, except the Lions have a functioning offense that put the game out of reach in the 2nd quarter.

There's a lot I could write about; the weak pass rush, the depleted, exposed secondary, this might finally be the end for DC Dom Capers, the running game misses Aaron Jones (and, though he's still a major league ass, the run blocking of Martellus Bennett), that Jason Spriggs returned from IR and brought his bad pass blocking back with him. But none of that really matters until the Packers get their starting quarterback back and send Brett Hundley to the bench.

Though I have to say that Hundley is a usable backup quarterback. He should never be handed a starting job on a full-time basis, but he has moments and that's really all that can be expected from a backup. If Rodgers is injured during a game, it's at least possible that Hundley could catch fire and finish the hypothetical game with a win. Someday he might even be as good as Matt Flynn was.
The worst sight is seeing Hundley back in the pocket, with pressure in his face. In that situation, he'll either run backwards 10 yards, take a sack, or throw an ill-advised pass into the middle of the field. The best he's done on any broken play is run for a first down. Every upcoming defensive coordinator should keep on disguising coverage (because he's not seeing the field) and blitz the heck out of him. Put pressure on him, take away his first read, and he's done.

A run heavy game plan isn't a formula for success, there's no NFL team who's currently successful with it, but the ground game has been working for the Packers. They also have to work the sidelines with deep passes to Adams and Nelson, which would keep the safety honest against the run and Hundley is best at throwing outside the numbers. They should be avoiding passes to the middle of the field at all costs. Above all else, they have to avoid all turnovers.

That strategy would really limit the offense and wouldn't stress opposing defenses. But it would keep them competitive in games against teams without much offense and it give them a couple wins. The playoffs aren't realistic so it's best to just keep each game as competitive as possible and give the fans something to stay for through the 4th quarter.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Packers End Three Game Losing Streak, Defeat Bears, 23-16

It was hardly a blow out win for the Green Bay Packers. It took an assist from a sloppy Bears team (8 penalties) and one of the worst coaches' challenges of all time, but their three game losing streak is over.
The run defense was good for the second week in a row and this time it was against a good rushing attack (Bears) instead of one that is usually among the worst in the league (Lions). But the pass defense was a mess again. They did record 5 sacks, which usually happened when the coverage held up downfield. But the Bears have probably the worst group of receivers in the league, it's so bad that Dontrelle Inman immediately became their No. 1 receiver after one week of practices. Inman had 58 receptions in 2016 but only had 2 with the Chargers in 2017 before his trade last week to the Bears. Trubisky had never completed more than 20 passes or thrown for more than 200 yards in a game until he faced the Packers. The Bears' top 3 wide receivers (and targets) combined for 13 receptions, 189 yards and 1 touchdown, which was more than the Packers' top 3 wide receivers combined (11 rec., 162 yards and 1 touchdown).

There's not much that can be done to improve that unit the rest of the season. CB Davon House is getting worse, Trubisky seemed to be targeting him in coverage during the 2nd half. CB Kevin King is their best cornerback, but he still has a couple plays per game when he looks like a rookie. CB Damarious Randall has been better at playing in Morgan Burnett's hybrid role but they already have Burnett (when healthy) to play there. S Kentrell Brice is on IR and not coming back this season, not that he was making much of a difference anyway. At least they have an easier match-up against QB Joe Flacco next week.

As for their new quarterback:
This was Hundley's best game as a starter but he's still inexperienced. He's making crazy mistakes like when he called a timeout for no reason and when he threw the ball away on a busted play instead of running into about 10 yards of open green in front of him. He shouldn't be taking so many sacks and he needs to quit running backwards in a loop for about 10 yards whenever he's forced out (or thinks he's being forced out) of the pocket. Some quarterbacks never figure these things out but at this point I'm willing to cut him a little slack in his first three NFL starts.

And despite everything I wrote above, this was his best NFL game against a solid Bears' defense in wet weather conditions. He made a couple of highlight reel completions to Adams, including one for a touchdown, and he didn't turn the ball over. He wasn't very mobile, at some point during the game he injured his hamstring and played through it, but he still ran for a big 1st down late in the game and he's already run for two touchdowns in his first 3 NFL starts. His completion percentage was over 70% for the game.

A win is always a good thing, and at least the Packers looked a lot better than they did against the Lions. I'm not looking for a big playoff run or expect Hundley to transform into Rodgers v.2 by season's end, but they played better and hopefully they keep it up over the next 7 games.

Friday, November 10, 2017

The Packers Problems Are More Than Just Hundley and Bennett

There's a lot going on with the Green Bay Packers between QB Brett Hundley playing poorly, Colin Kaepernick questions swirling around, and TE Martellus Bennett quitting on them. But don't sleep on the fact that the defense got rolled by Matthew Stafford last Sunday and the wheels seem to be coming off.
I've been wondering what the heck the Packers' safeties have been doing this season (Morgan Burnett is playing well, when healthy, but he's been a linebacker/slot corner this season). I've rarely seen any of them with a big pass defense or turnover. They usually show up one or two seconds late after a big gain to get in on a tackle. Against a team built around a short passing game, like the Lions, I'd expect the safeties are playing a little deep but then ready to come crashing down on the short yardage play. They're kind of doing it but the crashing down is tentative and it's not blowing up any plays.
Again, there are reasons the coaches are running this hybrid combo coverage to try and confuse the quarterback (a questionable decision against a veteran like Stafford). But when the pass rush doesn't come anywhere near Stafford, he can wait a couple seconds until the cornerback releases the receiver into the massive void created between the corner and the deep, deep safety. Also, while Stafford isn't always accurate, he was really sharp last Sunday, though I don't know I'd scheme with the expectation that the quarterback isn't going to be accurate. I'm not sure why the safeties have to be so deep against a Lions team without much of a downfield passing threat. I don't know everything that's going on here, but the results on both of the above plays is that it made it way too easy for the Lions.

There were some good things that happened on defense. DT Kenny Clark played great and along with Mike Daniels they shut down the middle of the line against the run. DE Dean Lowry isn't much of a pass rusher but he's turned into a good early down lineman. And OLB Vince Biegel was good in his first action of the year, considering he's only played about a one week's worth of football in 2017, and he'll be a big upgrade in the rotation over Fackrell and Odom, once they let Biegel's snap count go up.
I don't know what to say of a rested defense coming off a bye week, at home against an opponent they know so well, who gets rolled like this. I'm thinking of a lot of things and some of them could be very bad for the rest of this season and cost a lot of coaches and players there jobs in the offseason. Maybe that's what needs to happen in January.

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Packers Lose Third Straight: Packers 17, Lions 30

Sometimes you lose by 13 points and the game is closer than the score might indicate. This was the opposite of that for the Green Bay Packers. They were outplayed badly on defense and on offense. They came off the bye week as flat as any well rested team can be. I mentally checked out in the 2nd quarter and started comparing them to the 1987 Green Bay Packers (the defense was better that season). A team that can't score more than 20 points or hold any opponent to under 20 points is going to be bad.
The Lions can't run the ball (and didn't) but they have an effective short passing game that feasted on a Packer team with no pass rush and defensive backs who couldn't keep up with any receivers (they only recorded 1 pass defense). I wasn't optimistic about the secondary coming into the season. They've been better than last season's horror show but they're still bad.
The good news is that the defense is going to look a whole lot better over their next two games, when they battle two quarterbacks (Mitchell Trubisky and Joe Elite Flacco) who have lower QBRs than Brett Hundley.
Midway through the 3rd quarter, the Packers had the ball on 4th down at midfield. If Aaron Rodgers was on the field, the Packers would have run a quick slant or maybe a naked bootleg off play action. But with Hundley, they ran a pseudo jet sweep with WR Randall Cobb that lost 3 yards, and led to the above tweet by former Packer TE Tom Crabtree.

Maybe he's just the next great garbage time quarterback. Until early in the 4th quarter it looked like he would be held to under 100 yards passing for the 2nd straight game but two late touchdown drives after the game was out of reach boosted his passing yardage to 245, his completion percentage to 68.4% and his QBR to 51.5.

The optimist sees that 4th quarter and thinks he's adjusting to the starting role. The realist is still thinking back to the 2nd quarter:
He's been really bad over the past 2+ games but there aren't any better solutions on the roster. He got his starting offensive line back (except now it looks like Bryan Bulaga's season is over) and maybe 4 out of 5 ain't bad. The 4th quarter was probably a mirage but an optimist can say it was a sign of hope. It doesn't get any easier for him the rest of November with three good to great defenses ahead on the schedule. I'm not expecting any playoff run in their future but I do hope that Hundley can keep improving enough to make their games watchable and competitive for the rest of the season.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Packers Lose To Saints, 26-17: It's Time To Talk About Brett Hundley

I had high hopes for the Green Bay Packers in QB Brett Hundley's first career NFL start. The Saints' defense is good, but not great, and almost the entire Packer starting offensive line was back this week. RB Aaron Jones has emerged as threat on the ground. Instead this happened:
The only way it could have been worse is if he had a bunch of turnovers. Otherwise this is as bad as it gets. Look at all those passes within 10 yards, there's nothing to force the defense to respect the deep ball or protect the middle of the field. His protection was lousy for most of the game, he rarely had a clean pocket to step up into, and when he extended the play his receivers weren't getting open.

Maybe this was by design and HC Mike McCarthy wanted to keep the game plan conservative. Maybe this isn't just on Hundley, though his downfield accuracy wasn't always the best. His line could have blocked better and his receivers weren't getting open. I also have to watch the All-22 film later this week to see what was going on in the secondary.

Both of their touchdown drives were real, Jones was great on the ground and Hundley completed a couple really good passes on the 2nd touchdown drive. With more experience, it might only gets better from here. But with his huge head start; it's his 3rd year on the team, in the same offense, and with a whole week to prepare, I expected a lot more. How the rest of the team plays almost doesn't matter if he's this bad the rest of the season.

And the defense forced two INTs, which they have to do to help the offense out. The Packer pass rush had trouble against a good Saint offensive line and QB Drew Brees almost always had a clean pocket to step up into. They allowed a lot of yards but it might not have looked so bad if the Packers' offense could have stayed on the field (only 4 for 11 on 3rd down). It wasn't a great performance, but they gave them a chance to win.

It's a downer to watch Hundley have such a bad game going into the bye week. There's a long break ahead, no game until Monday night November 6 and then another home game, this time against the Lions. Hopefully the coaches and Hundley learn a lot from this game and he looks much better by then.

Thursday, October 19, 2017

Checking In on The Packers' 2017 Defense Through Six Games

There's going to be a step-down on offense (hopefully just a small one) with QB Brett Hundley which is going to put pressure on the Green Bay Packers' defense to step it up.
The defense comes in ranked 23rd by Pro Football Focus, and 18th at Football Outsiders. But as the PFF article notes, injuries to key players (Nick Perry, Mike Daniels, Morgan Burnett) have held them back. Daniels and Perry played the past couple weeks, but while Daniels is not currently listed on the injury report and he hasn't since duplicated his Week 1 dominance against the Seahawks. Perry has been playing with a cast after hand surgery and he hasn't been as effective since his return, being one-handed. Burnett is still currently out of practice dealing with an injured hamstring.

Even at 100%, the defense has been limited by a lack of playmaking in the secondary and not much from either of their star edge rushers (though Perry's got a good excuse). Free agent OLB Ahmed Brooks hasn't made much of a difference yet (currently limited by a back injury). Though LB Blake Martinez has been outstanding at times, and so has rookie S Josh Jones. Their injuries at cornerback were ridiculous against the Vikings, though House, King and Randall all seem currently on track to play next Sunday against the Saints. They'll probably still be without Burnett, and even with their cornerbacks potentially returning, they'll need more from their safeties than they've been providing.

Meanwhile, the usually awful Saints defense has been much better this season, currently they're ranked ahead of the Packers by both PFF and Football Outsiders, in large part thanks to rookie CB Marshon Lattimore. It's not exactly a big test for Hundley, the Saints still have issues on defense and they'll be playing them at Lambeau, but it won't look good if he struggles at home with a week to prepare against a mid-tier defense, plus he gets back his starting tackles (both currently limited in practice).

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Aaron Rodgers Will Have Surgery, Packers Sign Jerod Evans (of course)

The combination of having a broken collarbone on his throwing shoulder and the need to have surgery is probably the worst news for QB Aaron Rodgers that the Green Bay Packers could have heard. This isn't going to be like 2013 when he came back from a broken collarbone after having missed several weeks. Even then, when he did come back for the final two games of the season, he wasn't as good as usual because he'd been standing on the sidelines and not practicing for a while. Given usual cautiousness of Packers' training staff, I'm expecting his 2017 season is over.

So it was obvious that the Packers would sign QB Jerod Evans to replace him. Who's Jerod Evans?
I know there's a petition for them to sign QB Colin Kaepernick instead and it really is historically ridiculous that he isn't on an NFL roster. Rodgers himself thinks Kaep should be on somebody's roster, and I agree with him. But GM Ted Thompson, with only a couple exceptions, avoids signing veterans and looks for the youngster with upside. Signing Kaepernick would have not been a typical move for the Packers and signing Evans is.

It shouldn't be lost in this that there's a lot to like about Evans. He's big, fast, and he's got a strong arm. He was great for Virginia Tech last season and on the scout team he'll probably be good at pretending the opponent's QB, whether that QB is a traditional pocket passer or more mobile. And they wanted to promote QB Joe Callahan to the active roster now as the backup (no veteran was going to pick up the playbook in a couple days, it has to be Callahan this week) so it made sense that the new No. 3 QB should be eligible for the practice squad.

Speaking of things lost in this, to open a spot for Callahan they placed CB Quinten Rollins on injured reserve. I'm not a fan of Rollins, but I'd really like to see CB Josh Hawkins spend more time on the bench and losing Rollins doesn't help make that possible.

The big problem with Evans is that he's only played one season of FBS (he was previously at community college). Who advised him to leave for the NFL after only one year of college? After being signed as an undrafted free agent, he didn't even make it into training camp with the Eagles before being released in late May. The Packers have found arguably the least experienced QB possible.

Back in 2013, the Packers rotated Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn into the starting lineup to replace Rodgers. The situation is different this time, Hundley is established as the obvious replacement. But the offensive line is a wreck at the moment and it's possible that Hundley could wind up injured too. Then it's down to Callahan and The Least Experience Player in the NFL. There's no way they could be competitive in a game over the next couple weeks if the worst case scenario occurred and they had to turn to Evans, who's coming off an injury from last May. I expect they feel that the new No. 3 isn't someone they'll actually have to turn to, but that decision seems risky at the moment.

Monday, October 16, 2017

Packers Lose To The Vikings, Lose Aaron Rodgers

My first thought is that losing QB Aaron Rodgers for most of the season or the entire season is all that really needs to be said about the Green Bay Packers's loss to the Vikings in Minneapolis.
My second thought is that I'm a huge Packers fan, and I'll keep watching and rooting for them. Hopefully Bakhtiari and Bulaga can come back soon. Otherwise they'll be stuck with their 5th string LT and the dude they signed off the Cardinals practice squad at RT. And hopefully LG Lane Taylor can come back soon, otherwise QB Brett Hundley isn't going to have much of a chance (see the beating he took from the Vikings on Sunday) and they won't be able to run the ball much. It was like watching the preseason offensive unit all over again (except with the starting wide receivers) as the game wound down.

The defense held up surprisingly well after they were forced to give Lenzy Pipkins and Josh Hawkins substantial playing time at cornerback. They forced two turnovers that made the score a lot closer than the game on the field actually was. However it came against a non-juggernaut Vikings offense that was already without arguably their best three starters (Bradford, Cook, Diggs).

But at this point all the long-term hopes for this season can be put away. It's time to get as many guys healthy again as possible and fight like an underdog for each win.

Monday, September 25, 2017

Packers Fall Behind, Rally In 2nd Half For Overtime Win, 27-24

It wasn't pretty but the Green Bay Packers rallied in the 2nd half to give QB Aaron Rodgers his first career win against the Bengals (and first career OT win too).

What went wrong in the first half. As bad as everything went wrong last week against the Falcons, if it weren't for a couple turnovers, that game could have been close. In similar fashion, they fell behind against the Bengals in part because of another big turnover, this one an INT for a pick-six. The Packers' defense seems incapable of forcing any turnovers so any turnover on offense is magnified. 

The offense struggled by allowing 5 sacks in the first half. RT Bryan Bulaga returned but he didn't look right and left late in the game when his ankle started hurting again. LT Kyle Murphy looked awful, DE Carl Lawson abused him badly and it didn't get better until the Packers started chipping on Murphy's side with Montgomery or Bennett to give him some help. I don't know why it took until after halftime to figure this out.

What went right in the second half. CB Kevin King had another strong game but two guys really stood out on defense.

S Josh Jones. 2 sacks and a team leading 12 tackles is going to get you a game ball but Perry and Daniels out, he was one of the few players making plays. Same goes for ILB Blake Martinez, who was all over the field and in the backfield for a 2 yard loss on a Mixon run at the start of the OT period. One play for Martinez really jumped out, he got caught up in single coverage on WR A.J. Green and normally I'd expect a wide receiver in space to be able to get away from a linebacker, but Martinez closed quickly and tackled Green before he could turn up-field for a 1st down.

And, of course, QB Aaron Rodgers. Once his protection started holding up, he picked apart their secondary. Even while struggling with another drop from Bennett, and a couple of drops/off the hands passes to Allison and Adams, and nothing from the run game. He made so many great plays in the 2nd half, especially the long bomb to Allison in OT which set up the game winning field goal, but the game tying TD pass was something:
Just keep winning and hope for better health, unfortunately on a short week with a Thursday night game hosting the Bears coming up. And the Bears look surprisingly frisky after a win the Steelers in Chicago.

Monday, September 18, 2017

Packers Fall Behind Big Early, Lose In Atlanta, 34-23

Well that was a mess. After reading just before the game that Green Bay Packers' LT David Bakhtiari, to go along with RT Bryan Bulaga, were both out of the game and they were stuck with Kyle Murphy at LT and Justin McCray at RT, I pretty much put this game into the loss column. For good measure, 3rd string tackle Jason Spriggs was also injured. The entire offensive line was a mess but I'll give the three regular interior lineman a mulligan for this night. The offensive flow (and all the penalties) with a 4th and 5th string tackle were bad but it was actually better than my low, low expectations.
It was tempting to have given up on this game and spared Aaron Rodgers the beating he took but they never want to give up on a game. It was a long shot, but the Falcons are now known for giving up big leads, and the home crowd abandoned them long before the end, the stadium looked nearly empty in the 4th quarter.
After the disastrous NFC Championship Game last season, when the Packers were so banged up by the end of it that Letroy Guion had to finish out the game at RG, and now this one, there's something about injuries and games in Atlanta. Of the names above, losing Bulaga and Bakhtiari before it even started and made me pessimistic, and then losing Nelson and Daniels on consecutive series officially made me write this game off.
Damarious Randall has been trending downward ever since he started his NFL career strong in his rookie season (unbelievable now, but true). It started unraveling for him during their playoff loss to the Cardinals at the end of the 2015 season. A few weeks ago, Quinten Rollins was being written up as the best cornerback in training camp, but he looks two steps behind in coverage and he had trouble tackling. Kevin King looks like a rookie some of the times, but he actually makes plays (only he and Burnett were credited with a pass defense for this game). I thought they also benched FS Kentrell Brice for Josh Jones, Brice doesn't look like a difference maker in the secondary, but Jones was actually an injury replacement. It was hard to tell about Davon House because Matt Ryan spent so much of his time going after Randall and King. House should keep playing (depending if he's healthy next week) but it looks like it's time to let the rookies (King and Jones) play.
As bad as Randall was in the first half, Martellus Bennett might have been worse. On a team leading 11 targets, he had 5 catches for 47 yards. He also drew a stupid personal foul in Week 1. The offensive PI was weak because it was within 1 yard from the line of scrimmage but the rest of his night was bad enough. Hopefully he fits in better as the season goes on.
And yet the Packers almost managed to get back into this game. Even though they were missing their four best offensive starters not named Aaron Rodgers. And missing their best defensive player (Daniels). The Packers were living in Seattle's backfield last week, but without Daniels they rarely were disruptive behind the line of scrimmage against Atlanta.

Also the real reason they lost this game: 2 killer turnovers. I'm not sure if Rodgers felt like he had to do more without Nelson and his two best lineman, but the overthrown INT on a pass attempt to Allison (which led to a end of the half TD for the Falcons) and the reckless attempted pass/turned into a backward lateral to his right tackle on a busted play were not things I usually see from him. Those two turnovers led directly to 14 points and were the difference in the game. Almost everything went wrong but the turnovers are what lost it.

It's never helpful to lose a game to another NFC team but it's still just one game. The first order of business is to get everyone healthy. None of these injuries seem season ending (so far) and the Packers get a little breather with a home game next week against a struggling Bengals team.

Monday, September 11, 2017

Packers Defeat Seahawks By The Low Score of 17-9

It was pretty frustrating to watch the Green Bay Packers in the first half, when the defense was shutting down the Seahawks but the Packers' offense couldn't sustain anything to overcome some usually terrible starting field position.

The one thing I'd ask Mike McCarthy, if I ever had the chance to meet him in person, is please stop using your own timeouts late in the half in the hope that the defense will come up with a stop and Aaron Rodgers can get the ball back. It never works, the opposing offense always gets something going, and all he did was help the other team's clock management. In this case, he used his own time outs to help the Seahawks make a final drive that led to a field goal at the end the first half.
Their four man pass rush and run defense looked great, but Seattle's offensive line is a mess and they couldn't protect Russell Wilson or open up any running lanes for their backs. RG Jahri Evans struggled a little, and backup RT Kyle Murphy struggled a lot (he should get "credit" for allowing at least a couple sacks) but Seattle's defensive line is going to be a problem for all their opponents. OLB Nick Perry looked like a god to start the game but that probably had to do with Rees Odhiambo, who was making his first career start at left tackle.
Daniels was a beast, but he's not going to have the same success every week. How will the run defense and secondary hold up against a competent NFL offensive line? The nitro package, which is just their nickel package plus SS Morgan Burnett playing a roving DB/LB roll depending on the match-up, looked great this week but might look overwhelmed against a real rushing attack (like next week against the Falcons).

Same for the offense. Whichever receiver was lined up against CB Richard Sherman, in this game it was usually WR Davante Adams, didn't do much, but that's not going to be the case every week. Though the Packers' run offense hasn't been a big threat in a while, and it might be a struggle to get Ty Montgomery yards on the ground all season long.

Though they had the advantage of playing this game in Lambeau, this might still turn out to be their toughest game of the season.  Still it's just one win on the road back to repeating as NFC North champs.

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Packers Set The 53-Man Roster With No Big Surprises, Sign Ahmad Brooks

Amongst all the roster moves made by the Green Bay Packers, the most impactful was the signing of veteran OLB Ahmad Brooks to effectively take over the role of former OLB Julius Peppers. Brooks isn't going to start, both OLB Nick Perry and Clay Matthews returned to practice this week, but theys didn't have any of the other OLBs step up to claim the role Peppers played last season. Brooks is on the wrong side of 30 and probably in decline, but he should still be good in a limited role and he's needed.
They traded OLB Jayrone Elliott to the Cowboys and claimed OLB Chris Odom. Eliott was hurt during the preseason and didn't impress as much as he had in the previous years. They didn't receive much for him, a conditional draft choice, and I'd expect whatever that condition is won't be met, so they'll get nothing. Odom had an impressive preseason, but he might not last much longer if they need a roster spot for WR Geronimo Allison after Week 1.

Released G Kofi Amichia, WR Malachi Dupre, and WR DeAngelo Yancey. These three are specifically mentioned because they are the only former draft choices that were released, and Amichia and Yancey were signed to the practice squad. Only Dupre is truly gone, which is kind of a quick fall for a player who opened some eyes early in camp. But he took a vicious hit in the first preseason game, and though he returned a couple weeks later, he didn't make much of an impression over the final couple games.

WR Max McCaffrey is released. There really weren't any duds amongst the wide receivers this preseason, and a couple of them had to go. He kind of fell into the same category as Dupre; they both looked like two of the smallest and slower wide receivers in camp. That's why Yancey and Davis are still around, while McCaffrey is gone.

QB Taysom Hill. I didn't understand all the love for Hill, who's main ability seemed to be his legs which isn't going to work for him in the NFL. Plus he's a 27 year old rookie who's gone through multiple season ending injuries while at BYU. Being healthy and able to take over an active roster spot when needed is key for someone on the practice squad. They released Callahan too, but Hill was claimed by the Saints. Would the Packers have chosen Hill over Callahan for the practice squad? It really doesn't matter when discussing the practice squad QB.

In the end, I'm not surprised by any of the final cuts they made to their roster. I like the Brooks signing and I'm ready for the regular season to begin.

Friday, September 01, 2017

Should The Packers Have Traded For Sheldon Richardson?

The Green Bay Packers pass rush is usually a concern and the idea of acquiring a defensive lineman who can play inside or outside, is great against the run, and has some pass rushing skills is an exciting idea. Instead the Packers watched as the Seahawks traded for Jets's DL Sheldon Richardson:
The Seahawks gave up WR Kearse and a 2018 2nd round pick for Richardson. I'll ignore the swap of 7th round selections (a small get for the Seahawks). The salary cap should not have been an issue, the Packers have over $21 million of space and Richardson's cap hit to the Seahawks is just over $8 million. Do the Packers have the assets to make a similar trade?

A 2018 2nd round pick. GM Ted Thompson doesn't trade picks but he did have that pick available, and just like with the Seahawks, it should be late in the 2nd round. It's against his nature to trade a pick for a player, but this was technically possible.

WR Jermaine Kearse. Is this a salary dump or do the Jets need a receiver? The Jets receiving corp is a disaster and if their front office thinks Kearse is the answer, I feel sorry for Jets fans. Kearse is terrible and overpaid ($2.2 million cap hit for the Jets). For the Packers to have surrendered a receiver like Cobb or Adams would have been an overpay (based on Kearse's value) and it's too close to the start of the season to mess around with one of QB Aaron Rodgers's top 2 or 3 receivers anyway. If this was just a salary dump, the Packers don't have any salary they're looking to dump, so the Packers might have made this trade look better by not asking the Jets to take anyone back.

DE Dean Lowry. He probably would have lost his starting spot to Richardson. Though he's currently nursing a sprained MCL, he doesn't need surgery and he should be back soon (maybe not Week 1), so the Packers didn't need Richardson to replace Lowry. Also, they're expecting big things from him in his 2nd season and might not have even viewed Richardson as even an improvement over Lowry.

Richardson "has been a headache off the field." I always think of him as the guy who pretended to be Rex Ryan and called a timeout in a game against the Packers. I think talent is much more important than the ability to be a great teammate, but he wouldn't be bringing any intangible people skills to the locker room.

Richardson is a free agent after the season. Would he even consider re-signing in Green Bay? Surrendering a 2nd round pick for one season of Richardson, who they might not even think is better than Lowry, would be an awful result.

I really like the idea of adding a Pro Bowl defensive lineman on a defense that could use some help and the cost of a late 2nd round pick isn't terrible, but digging deeper, if Richardson would only be a rotational lineman for one year at the cost of a high draft pick plus a useful WR (if the Jets required a receiver in addition to the pick) that would have been too much and more than the Seahawks paid. I was initially disappointed at the idea of missing out on Richardson, but standing pat was probably the better decision.

Monday, August 28, 2017

Preseason Week 3: Packers Lose in Denver, 20-17

Against the Broncos, there were some concerns about the backup offensive line and defensive front seven, but these aren't new concerns for the Green Bay Packers. The biggest problem in this game was that QB Aaron Rodgers didn't throw the ball well. He only played two series and completed 3 of 5 attempts, but one of those attempts should have been an INT if WR Davante Adams hadn't stole it away from the cornerback. But Aaron Rodgers isn't a real concern, not based on 5 attempts in a single preseason game, so there wasn't anything too bad with the loss.
The most disappointing thing about this preseason has been that I wanted to see more of the revamped secondary. Rookies CB Kevin King and S Josh Jones have played well, so the answer to the question about them is that they seem to be good so far. But other questions haven't been answered. Will Randall and Rollins be the starting CBs along with King or will CB Davon House start even if he ends up missing the entire preseason? Last season's starting CB LaDarius Gunter has been moved into a reserve role, which is good because King is a better player, and maybe even Gunter's roster spot is in jeopardy. The lineup in Denver with Randall and King outside, Rollins in the slot at cornerback, and Jones and Burnett all over the field at safety with Brice patrolling centerfield, appears to be the Packers' secondary to start the season. Then some combination of LBs Ryan, Martinez and Thomas will make up the back seven of the defense.
The second biggest disappointment is the EDGE position. Datone Jones and Julius Peppers left in the free agency, which is OK, and they added Biegel in the draft to go along with more from Fackrell. Unfortunately neither Biegel or Fackrell seem to be working out, and injuries keep appearing as Elliott has a bad back and Perry just hurt his ankle against Denver. Clay Matthews isn't known for his perfect health either, which unfortunately makes their interest in LB Ahmad Brooks seem legit. Fixing the secondary was more important this offseason but their step back at the EDGE position is a problem.

RT Bryan Bulaga missed the Denver game due to an ankle injury in practice and Jason Spriggs showed why he's still only a backup. Spriggs got beat badly a couple times by spin moves, once by Von Miller but another time by somebody else, and he hasn't shown that he's good enough to start. But maybe we're all wrong about what we see during the preseason. Last year, LG Lane Taylor had the worst preseason performance by any player I can recall. Instead of releasing him, they released Josh Sitton to open up a starting spot for Taylor, who went on to have a good 2016 season. And this is also nothing new for the Packers, who never seem to have a decent backup tackle on the roster, JC Tretter and Don Barclay in past seasons weren't the answer at tackle either. As long as Bulaga is back to start the season, maybe none of this matters.

So there's only one more preseason to game to go, though none of the starters should play and 53-man roster has probably already been decided on by the coaches and front office. Still, I'll never complain about watching more Packer football.

Monday, August 21, 2017

Preseason Week 2: Packers Defeat Redskins 21-17

I skipped writing a review of the Green Bay Packers' first preseason game of 2017 against the Eagles because I was busy at the time and many of the "problems" I saw in that first game seemed to be offseason rust (shaking off the cobwebs or pick a similar saying). And a lot of those things went away in their second preseason game, like I hoped they would.

I'm not going to write about the fringe roster battles yet (Will there be a 3rd QB battle? Which of the dozen WRs will they keep?). Right now, I'm watching to see that all the starters are all in place (they almost all are). For the bottom of the 53 man roster (and practice squad) there's still more up-and-down over the last two preseason games to see who will make the cut.

First team offense: QB Aaron Rodgers wasn't expected to play but he did (briefly). My guess is that he prefers playing on the road in the preseason, he played almost the entire 1st half back in 2015, during a preseason game in New England, one in which Tom Brady barely stepped onto the field. In any case, Rodgers stepped on the field for one drive and went 75 yards in 15 plays for a touchdown. There wasn't a big strike, in fact the longest play of the drive was a 13 yard scramble on a busted play. It was a veteran quarterback at the top of his game taking apart a 1st team defense that wasn't scheming to stop him. TE Martellus Bennett ended the drive with a touchdown catch, split wide against a single LB in coverage. It was nice to see them connect, but there's no way a defense will let a LB go outside in single coverage during the regular season. Other defenses will switch a DB or safety over.

While Rodgers was sharp, so was everybody else on the first team offense. Rookie RB Jamaal Williams got the start while RB Ty Montgomery was hurt, and he found little room to run. Maybe that's a sign that they'll still have trouble running the ball this season (free agent RG Jahri Evans wasn't the problem, he actually looked good at getting to the second level) or maybe that the Redskins spent most of their time in their base defense which is probably better against the run with an extra linebacker or two. In any case, the first team offense looks ready for the regular season to begin.

First team defense: This got a little interesting because some players were held out.
It sucks that S Josh Jones missed the game. The Redskins left their 1st team offense on the field for the entire 1st half and Jones could have used the experience. I haven't been excited about the return of Davon House as the new No. 1 CB, I don't believe he's the answer, but his absence, along with Randall's, gave second year CB Josh Hawkins a lot of playing time with the first team defense and he delivered.
I have to admit that I wrote off Hawkins after his struggles last season. He had a strong couple games to start the 2016 preseason, but then faded in the final couple. He still made enough of an impression to earn a spot on the 53-man roster, but when injuries left them looking for help at cornerback, he only made a brief regular season appearance, got burned badly, and spent the rest of season hidden at the bottom of the roster. I wasn't optimistic he'd earn another roster spot this year. Instead, he's become a fierce hitter and the most exciting CB to watch in their first two preseason games. House and Randall aren't going anywhere, but based on their past performances, the starting CB job should be an open competition. If Hawkins continues to earn the top grade, then he should win the job.

The rest of the 1st team defense looked good against the Redskins' No. 1s. They slowly pulled the starters, Matthews, Daniels, and Perry all left after the first series while others played most of the 1st quarter. Kirk Cousins had his best success throwing to TEs and RBs, who were covered by linebackers, but those players might have been covered by Burnett or Jones in the regular season. Rookie CB Kevin King looked much better in his 2nd NFL game, and he's playing with a big chip on his shoulder. He actually might need to calm it down, to make sure he avoids any taunting penalties.

That might have been the last preseason game for a number of veteran starters on the offense and defense, and that's fine because they look ready for the regular season on both sides of the ball. They still enter the season with the same concerns about pass rush and pass coverage that they had all offseason, but they look as good as they're going to get with the current roster. They still have two more preseason games to go and then finalize the 53-man roster, but I'm ready for the regular season to begin.

Monday, August 07, 2017

Did WR Malachi Dupre Break Out At Packers Family Night Practice?

I don't want to make a big deal out of the Green Bay Packers' annual Family Night televised scrimmage. It's not a real game setting which makes player evaluation almost meaningless, though it is fun to watch (when it isn't getting rained out). But it was interesting to see one of their rookies make a big play on Saturday night:
I'm down on CB LaDarius Gunter after last season, in some games he was a life saver when all the other CBs were injured but in other games his obvious weaknesses were completely exposed (see NFC Championship Game). I don't think he has a long-term future with the Packers. So outplaying him isn't a super-impressive feat of strength. But this isn't the first time Dupre's name has come up in training camp and he might be a prospect who was written off too soon.

Amazingly Dupre was thought of as a 2nd round prospect, and even a Top 10 1st round prospect, by some a year ago. But he committed the cardinal sin of having a worse college season than the year before (though he led LSU in receptions and receiving yards in 2015 and 2016) in large part due to a terrible quarterback situation. He also disappointed with his measurables at the NFL combine; he wasn't actually as tall as he was listed in college, he had "small" hands, and he wasn't the fastest receiver with a 4.52 40 time.

But he is a former five-star college recruit who was a high school state champion in track-and-field. And receivers can play a lot faster than they look if they're a great route runner,. Although he measured shorter than expected at the combine, he's still over 6-2 (above average for a Packer wide receiver) and he was the 3rd best WR in the vertical jump at the combine which might mean he'll play taller than his actual height.

Still, so far all he's done is look good in practice and training camp. It's how he does, and whether he can hold onto the ball, during their preseason games that'll really matter. But he should be in a good position to see a lot of playing time because there's no need to give a lot of snaps to Nelson, Cobb and Adams. I'm curious whether they'll hold Nelson out entirely considering he tore up his knee during a preseason game in 2015. Also, QB Brett Hundley missed practically the entire 2016 preseason so the Packers are probably eager to get him throwing as much as possible. Dupre hasn't proven anything yet, but he has become one of the players I'm most eager to see during the preseason.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Rookie DT Montravius Adams Has Foot Injury, Stress Fracture

I wasn't expecting a lot from Green Bay Packers' rookie DT Montravius Adams, who they just selected in the 3rd round, but they did need him for depth. Now it's unknown when he'll be available again:
OLB Vince Biegel had surgery for a break in his foot back in May and he's still currently out of practice. The two injuries might not be similar but Biegel is an example of someone who's been held back for a while due to a foot injury.

Adams wasn't going to start ahead of DT Mike Daniels or DT Kenny Clark. He wasn't going to be the first backup off the bench either, with that role going to DE Dean Lowry or DT Ricky Jean Francois. But with DT Letroy Guion going through whatever he's going through, he's been suspended for the first 4 games of 2017 anyway, the depth behind those top 4 has become thin. DTs Brian Price and Christian Ringo were around last season, but I wasn't expecting either of them to make the team in 2017. If disaster strikes and either Daniels or Clark miss time due to injury, Adams was/is the only player with upside as a future starter.

Still, I'm just writing about a backup who wasn't guaranteed to provide any help in 2017. The drop off from Adams to Ringo might be little, to nothing, this season. Hopefully Adams gets well soon.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

The Packers 2017 Season Started Today

It wasn't much, only the first practice of training camp, but it was the start of the Green Bay Packers' 2017 season. Except for watching out for injuries, having only two players on the PUP list is a good start, not much is going to change between now and the first preseason game.

The big thing to watch is new look defense as they try and fix the disaster that was the 2016 pass defense. So far it looks like the solution is to get rid of all the linebackers.
That's three lineman, two EDGE rushers, two CBs and three safeties. At under 230 lbs. Joe Thomas is a one of a new breed of players. Ten years ago he'd be way to small to be considered a LB and either bulk up to play inside or go small and play safety. I should correct myself and call him one too but he's a different type of inside backer.

The one glaring weakness is their No. 1 CB. Who should be covering the other team's No. 1 receiver? House and Gunter aren't the answer. The future should belong to 2nd round CB Kevin King but the present is not in his hands:
Ugh. Hopefully he's a fast learner during training camp.

It looks like they'll have good weather in Green Bay this weekend so hopefully everyone in attendance has a good time.

Friday, June 30, 2017

When Does The Packers 2017 Season Begin?

There's not much to write about with the Green Bay Packers until training camp begins on July 27. Looking ahead, there's no easy game to start the regular season, first they host the Seahawks on September 10th and then travel to Atlanta on September 17th. It'll be a huge game for the Falcons because it's their regular season home opener in their new stadium and the beer and food prices are expected to be insanely low!

Those first two games might not even be their toughest ones, looking ahead to road games at Dallas in October and at Pittsburgh in November. At least they get to travel to Cleveland in December.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

The Ballad of Letroy Guion, Hawaii Edition

Wednesday morning, the Green Bay Packers twitter account had the following message:
If only his birthday had been a day later...
I wouldn't expect this arrest alone would mean he's going to be released. He's already received a second chance after his arrest in 2015 while in possession of a lot of cash and pot, and he was still part of their 2017 plans though he's already suspended for the first 4 games of the season. Maybe this arrest will lead to an automatic longer suspension by the NFL but I'm not an NFL code of conduct guru.

According to Football Outsiders, Guion's 504 snaps last season were second only to DT Mike Daniels, so he was important to their defensive scheme. The Packers did sign free agent DT Ricky Jean Francois and drafted DT Montravius Adams in the 3rd round, maybe both were acquired with an eye towards replacing Guion anyway. But they already have to replace the snaps given last season to DT Mike Pennel, who's not a big loss but those snaps have to be taken up by someone, so releasing Guion would give them little depth behind Daniels and NT Kenny Clark if Adams isn't ready and/or Francois doesn't work out.

At least the Packers aren't in any bind if they have to release Guion. According to Over the Cap, his release would stick them with only $166,666 in dead money when they already have over $18 million in cap space.

It seems like the only time I write about Guion is when he does something stupid. Never trust a former Viking, I guess.

Friday, June 16, 2017

What Will The Packers Offensive Scheme Look Like in 2017?

It's been a roller coaster ride for the Green Bay Packers's offense over the past two seasons. The loss of WR Jordy Nelson in 2015 turned a high powered 2014 machine into an offense that produced the lowest completion percentage of QB Aaron Rodgers's career. Eventually the wheels were put back on last season when Nelson returned, but he wasn't the same until late 2016 which coincided with the return of TE Jared Cook and the emergence of Ty Montgomery as a running back. After all three players were in place and back in game shape, the offense clicked. Though Cook is now a Raider, the signing of TE Martellus Bennett should be an upgrade and they'll likely be even better next season.

I focused primarily on the defense this offseason and I've realized that I haven't written at all about the departure of associate head coach Tom Clements. It's telling that he hasn't caught on with another team this offseason when other top former Packer offensive assistants like Ben McAdoo and Joe Philbin have both had head coaches stints after leaving Green Bay. The injury to Jordy Nelson in 2015 took center stage that season, but it's dance partner was Mike McCarthy's decision to give away and then take back mid-season play calling duties. The departure of Clements but the return of DC Dom Capers seems like a sign that Mike McCarthy thinks bigger changes need to happen on offense than defense.
What makes the situation in Atlanta so much better than Green Bay? Here's what Doug wrote in his article:
It's just that he's operating with a schematic handicap, and it affects not only the entire offense but also Rodgers' faith in what he sees. And when a quarterback has to wait for receivers to get open on their own as opposed to with help from route concepts, it leads to extra defensive pressure as blocks break down over time.
Rodgers still averaged 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt last season, tying for fourth in the league. Watch him on tape and imagine how his stats would surge if he had, say, Atlanta's offense from last season. That's why he's this high on the list: He's a better player than his scheme allows him to be.
It's true, the Packers have been running a scheme that requires their skill players beat the other team's skill players on a weekly basis without much help. That might not be much of a problem in 2017 but it was a big problem in 2015 (and could be a problem in the future if injuries occur). I wasn't expecting them to change their scheme mid-2015 when Nelson was lost in the preseason but it wasn't changed over the 2016 offseason either. Maybe it was effectively changed when Tom Clements wasn't asked back in January.

The Packers haven't given anything away in public OTAs this offseason, and they might not even show any new looks this preseason. During games, the announcers sometimes talk about how many plays there are in McCarthy's playbook. Maybe the Packers intend to explore a different part of that playbook after the departure of Clements with more of the weekly offensive scheme in the hands of McCarthy and hold over OC Edgar Bennett (who as a player thrived in a West Coast style offense that might well suit Ty Montgomery). The offense might look a lot less like it did last season and more like it did when Rodgers was a two-time MVP.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

The Packers Return To The Practice Field During OTAs

I'm a little late to the party that started last week when the Green Bay Packers returned to the practice field for OTAs. While the rookies were on display immediately after the draft, last week was the first time that the veterans joined them in 2017 and gave us a look at what to expect on opening day.

There are some new free agent faces (TE Martellus Bennett, RG Jahri Evans) but they should be straight-up be taking over for the ones that walked away (TE Jared Cook, RG T.J. Lang). Despite drafting multiple running backs, it looks like it's Ty Montgomery's job to lose in the backfield. Some combination of Jayrone Elliott, Kyler Fackrell and Vince Biegel (when healthy) will take the snaps that last season went to Julius Peppers and Datone Jones. The names have changed but the roles they play are essentially the same.

The big change should happen in the secondary since it was a disaster last season. Maybe the scheme can remain the same or maybe it was the players, but probably it's a little of both. Two big names are gone (CB Sam Shields and DB Micah Hyde) and their top two draft choices (CB Kevin King and S Josh Jones) were brought in to take over their roster spots and maybe even their roles on defense.
King is still in school and not eligible to participate in OTAs. We'll know later whether he's going to take over for Gunter right away or whether he'll have to earn it during the preseason. The other two safeties in that opening lineup were Morgan Burnett and Kentrell Brice, so despite all the glowing articles I read about Jones last week, he's still at least 2nd team and apparently playing along side demoted CBs Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins. Brice has replaced Hyde on defense in the slot, which isn't a bad thing because Brice had a strong 2016 preseason and played a role in the secondary last season, but should be a step back at first because Hyde was pretty good.

There are a lot of names and a lot of options, but it's not a top heavy group. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the big name, coming off his first trip to the Pro Bowl, but he was a weak selection. He had some great games last season along with a couple of really bad ones. Davon House is arguably their No. 1 corner and he played his way out of Jacksonville last season. LaDarius Gunter showed everyone his ceiling when he was torched in the NFC Championship game. Maybe Randall and Rollins can both rebound after off-season surgery, but their 2016 seasons were disasters. Both Burnett and Jones might find themselves playing more linebacker in the "nitro" package and maybe taking over for ILB Joe Thomas instead of helping the downfield passing game.

The early result is that the coaches aren't trusting their rookies (yet) as 1st team players in the secondary. Despite the changes to the roster, and all the optimism as a new season begins, the secondary is a suspect and unsettled group that has a lot to prove in 2017.

Monday, May 01, 2017

Packers NFL Draft 2017: Defense Early, Offense Late

Do you think the Green Bay Packers had some issues to address on defense? They used their top 4 picks on defensive players before taking some flyers on 6 straight offensive players.
After trading out of the 1st round (I'll get to that later) they filled a glaring and obvious need by selecting Washington CB Kevin King with the 1st pick of the 2nd round (33rd overall). He's fast (4.43 40 time) and tall (6'3") and could step into an immediate need at outside corner. He'll need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL, but the competition ahead of him is only CB Damarious Randall and CB Davon House. While starting him as a rookie is not an ideal plan, he could be ahead of those two sooner rather than later.

They certainly need defensive backs so selecting another one at the end of the 2nd round (61st overall) in N.C. State FS Josh Jones is no surprise, but it seemed more likely that they would have chosen another corner who could compete outside. Maybe they see Jones as a DB who could either be a safety or a corner and play various roles like DB Micah Hyde, though Jones seems more like FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix than Hyde. It's not exactly clear what role they have in mind for him. Do the Packers want to play more two-deep safety with Clinton-Dix and Jones in centerfield? The scouting report describes Jones as an aggressive hitter (maybe too aggressive) so maybe he'll take over SS Morgan Burnett's role and Burnett will play more linebacker in 2017? He'll provide depth, which is welcomed, but his role is yet to be seen.

This didn't seem like the year to go after defensive lineman, but in the 3rd round (93rd overall) they selected Auburn DT Montravius Adams. This was a weak defensive line class so a prospect at the end of the 3rd round is going to have some flaws (there are concerns about his motor and technique according to He's about the same size and height (6-4, 304 lbs.) as DT Letroy Guion, who's suspended for the 1st four games of 2017, so Adams fills an immediate need to replace Guion in the rotation temporarily and maybe permanently.

My favorite pick in the draft is their first 4th round pick, the 1st pick of the 4th round, Wisconsin LB Vince Biegel. A former Badger is always a pleasant surprise, and Biegel gives them another versatile LB who could be used inside like LB Jake Ryan or outside like LB Kyler Fackrell. He can rush the passer, play the run, or be asked to drop back in coverage. He fills a need because they let OLB Datone Jones leave in free agency. But none of that makes this my favorite pick. He's basically a free player in the middle of the draft, when there are still quality prospects on the board. The Browns have a million picks in 2017 and 2018 and they cashed in a little to move up a few spots into the late first round to draft a toolsy, project TE who the Packers would have never selected. They probably would have just selected King if the Browns hadn't called them. But GM Ted Thompson moved down a few spots (and saved some money on King's rookie contract as an early 2nd rounder vs. a late 1st rounder) which alone would have been worth it. But in addition, he negotiates for the top pick in the 4th round to pick up a solid player (Biegel) who could have been selected a round or two earlier.  While some teams looked like clowns (Bears) and handed away picks that they can't afford to lose, the Packers are picking up free talent (Biegel) while saving some money on their top pick. Not all of these selections will work out, but Thompson won the draft process on Thursday.

Onto the offense! The first 4 rounds are the most important, so it's obvious (and appropriate) that the Packers invested most of their draft capital to help the defense. But they gave a shot in the arm to the offense, which hadn't gotten much help in the 2016 draft, while addressing their most uncertain position on offense (running back). But don't get too excited, it's more likely that there are a lot of potential practice squad players here and not future starters.

With their own 4th round pick (134th overall) they selected BYU RB Jamaal Williams to replace Eddie Lacy in the role of running hard into the heart of the defense. He's not the biggest guy (6-0, 212 lbs.) but he'll earn a roster spot to run hard in-between the tackles.

With their 1st pick in the 5th round (175th overall) they drafted another former Big 10 receiver with size and not a lot of speed in Purdue WR DeAngelo Yancey, who seems similar to WR Geronimo Allison. Unless you're still keeping the dream alive that WR Jeff Janis or WR Jared Abbrederis will work out, or that WR Trevor Davis's tendency to drop punts is temporary, it seems like an open competition for the 4th and 5th WR spots (assuming Ty Montgomery is a running back now). Yancey could be in the mix or he could be trying to impress for a spot on the practice squad.

Hey another running back with Texas-El Paso's Aaron Jones in the 5th round at 182nd overall. He was a top performer in several combine drills, including the 3 cone drill. At 5-9, he's the undersized 3rd down back, great athlete to platoon with their earlier selection of Jamaal Williams who would be the bruising, early down back.

With their 6th round selection, 212th overall, it's OL Kofi Amichia from South Florida, who played tackle in college but should move inside in the pros. There's no roster spot for him after they signed Jahri Evans so he'll have to prove he deserves more time to develop on the practice squad.

There were rumors at the NFL combine that the Packers were interested in drafting multiple running backs and they didn't disappoint. Everything I wrote above about the great job they did at creating free draft picks applies here again (to a much, much lesser extent). They dropped back a few spots in the 5th round, selected the receiver they probably wanted anyway (Yancey) and received a free draft pick from the Broncos for their trouble. A 7th round pick, No. 238 overall, Utah St. RB Devante Mays isn't as big a prize as Biegel, and he appears to have trouble staying healthy, but he's got talent and they get to take a closer look at him instead of hoping he'll be available as an undrafted free agent.

Finally is LSU WR Malachi Dupre (247th overall) who's another receiver with some size (6-2, 196 lbs.) and a lack of speed. Still, this is a good spot for Dupre who could earn himself a roster or practice squad spot with a strong preseason and a wide open competition for the 4th and 5th WR spots.

This draft class turned out bigger than expected because some teams just can't ignore that analytics say don't trade up and GM Ted Thompson can take advantage of them in their panic. And they took players at all their positions of need. There's obviously no way to know who are busts at this point, but they didn't unnecessarily reach for any players and won a couple of draft trades, which is about as good as can be expected immediately after draft weekend.