Friday, March 24, 2017

Packers Sign Ricky Jean Francois and Christine Michael

I wasn't sure the Green Bay Packers were going to wade into the free agent waters again, but they did lose several veterans this offseason. Plus the DT Letroy Guion suspension saps their main source of depth on the defensive line. Typically the Packers don't sign veteran free agents like these two players or like Martellus Bennett and Davon House, but they need depth and these two signings are some pretty safe.
Without Jean Francois, the top backup behind Daniels and Clark (to start the season while Guion is suspended) is former practice squad player Brian Price. I don't think the Packers had any interest in bringing back Mike Pennel, who wasn't good last season after he returned from suspension, and he's signed with the Jets. There's no upside with Jean Francois but he's played in all 16 games in 6 of the last 7 seasons, so he's a reliable veteran. He's a different type of Letroy Guion, which is all they need as a rotational tackle behind Daniels and Clark. And he brings no risk on a one-year contract. They did draft Clark and Lowry last year, so a high draft choice seems unlikely, but they'll bring in at least a couple more rookie for depth.
Weeks ago, I thought it would be Eddie Lacy that the Packers would re-sign as the veteran depth behind Ty Montgomery and whoever the Packers select in the draft. But Lacy received too much money from the Seahawks and he might have not been a good choice anyway if he's still rehabbing his foot and overweight. I can't recall injuries every being a problem with Christine Michael, so he too is a reliable veteran, who they must like well enough if they brought him back after his late season stint with the team. The contract terms weren't disclosed but it's likely to be under $1 million on a one-year contract, so he too brings no risk too.

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Packers 2017 Free Agency: They're Letting Everyone Go

After the initial flurry of free agency and the signing of TE Martellus Bennett, the Green Bay Packers spent the next week watching as their unrestricted free agents signed with other teams. Two players signed for reasonable one-year deals that maybe would have been good deals for the Packers. But they did have one signing of their own.
I was hoping GM Ted Thompson would go after one of the top free agent corners who could take over on the outside across from CB LaDarius Gunter, but instead he brought a familiar face back who was released after two seasons in Jacksonville. House is far from a comparable replacement for CB Sam Shields, but his one-year, $2.8 million deal comes with no risk. And House has played like a No. 1 corner, sometimes. They had to add someone to compete with Russell and Rollins, and they at least did it. While House basically takes Hyde's roster spots, they didn't play the same role when they were with the Packers (House typically outside, Hyde in the slot or safety) but the Packers might prefer Rollins in the slot anyway. They at least know what they're getting with House, who spent his first four NFL seasons in Green Bay. However, they still have to address this position early in the upcoming draft.

Now for two players I thought they'd re-sign:
Based on the above, it looks like they just let their top pass rusher walk to the Vikings on a reasonable one-year "prove it" deal, similar to the one they gave to OLB Nick Perry last year. In Perry's case, he proved himself with a big 2016 season and received a multi-year deal as his reward, and their stats through their first four seasons are awful similar. Jones could easily have a breakout 2017 season with double digit sacks. PFF is a great resource but the Packers have their own charting and apparently didn't believe that Jones was twice as good as Perry last season. Jones has bounced around in his first four seasons, first at DE, then at OLB, and he even played over the center a lot last season on passing downs. Maybe he's not a good fit for Capers's scheme, but he's a good player and it's too bad they couldn't have worked something out to keep him.
The Bob McGinn report being referred to is the one that said RB Eddie Lacy was weighing 267 lbs. when the Seahawks signed him. There are two problems here: 1) Lacy isn't a good player when he's overweight, and 2) he's still hurt. I had hoped the Packers would re-sign him as a low-cost candidate for next season but the Packers rarely (never?) sign injured players. He's not technically injured, he passed his physical, but still going through rehab on his injured foot so that he can't keep his weight down is a bad sign. I'm not at all surprised they didn't get him back.

It wouldn't be a shock to see the Packers sign another free agent between now and the draft on a low cost deal, but it's just as likely that they're finished. This was a worst offseason than usual with a couple more departures than I was expecting. But they might have upgraded the tight end position, which was the secret to their late season offensive success, and kept their best pass rusher. QB Aaron Rodgers will miss Lang, but I'd imagine he's happy with the addition of Bennett. This offseason has made them a little worse but it can also be viewed as a wash.

Monday, March 13, 2017

Packers 2017 Free Agency: The Good and The Bad

Every year GM Ted Thompson waves good bye to one or two members of the Green Bay Packers who played a significant role in the past. And next year the Packers usually return to the top of the NFC North anyway. There isn't anyone essential that's been lost but they do have to figure out who's going to replace Hyde, Lang and Peppers. In order of the players that they've lost:

TE Jared Cook. Technically he's still a free agent but he's not coming back because the Packers signed Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks. Cook transformed their offense when he returned from injury mid-season but so can Bennett who I've gotten used to as an annoying match-up problem when he played for the Bears. I also had some concerns about Cook because of the occasional drop and fumble. Also, Bennett's a real TE while Cook was more like an oversized WR. This is a swap for a better player and a good move.
DB Micah Hyde. I've been a big fan of his but obviously the coaches had some reservations. He was never in the mix to start at corner or safety in four seasons and even when they were falling apart last season at corner, he only played on the outside in the playoffs when the Packers were completely out of options (he did pretty well). It's OK to let a free agent walk if the coaches don't view him as a starter, especially when a deep cornerback draft is on the horizon. Unfortunately I've recently lost some faith in their front office's ability to scout corners (see Randall, Rollins) or know when they should keep a free agent DB (see Casey Hayward).

RG T.J. Lang. He's the loss that hurts the most but I've been bracing for it the minute I saw him being carted off during their playoff loss in Atlanta. The Packers were in the bidding but they didn't match the Lions' price. There were a lot of signs that Lang was soon to be a former Packer. GM Ted Thompson has a long history of letting interior offensive lineman leave in free agency (Wahle, Rivera, Wells, Dietrich-Smith) and you can add the release of Josh Sitton last year too. There are good reasons not to give offensive lineman their third long-term contract once they're over age 30 and none of those departures listed above came back to haunt them. The concern is that they don't have a replacement on hand because they also let JC Tretter leave in free agency. The remaining free agent guards are the sort of older veterans, major injury concerns, or disappointments that the Packers never sign, or might sign on a minimum contract, and none of them could be considered a realistic replacement anyway. This is not a good year to draft a guard either. OL Don Barclay was re-signed on a one-year deal if no one else works out, but I'd have to imagine they'll give second year players Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy the first opportunities.

OLB Julius Peppers. He had a great three year run in Green Bay. He's an athletic freak who doesn't seem to have missed a game due to injury since 2007. His stats were down a little but they tried to play him less while also asking him to do more than just rush the passer. Carolina was going to have the hometown pull over him that the Packers couldn't match and it's unrealistic to pay him several million per season when he's not playing starter's snaps. But he can still play for a couple more seasons and he'll be missed. Luckily this is a pretty strong draft for edge rushers.

Friday, March 03, 2017

The Packers Are Going To Draft Running Backs!

The NFL combine is happening this weekend in Indianapolis. GM Ted Thompson and his coaches are saying the usual stuff about wanting this or that free agent back, which usually means nothing in of itself. Most of the skills being tested don't amount to much, but sometimes a legitimate warning sign emerges. However, some of the statements being said make more sense than others:
The 2016 running back position was like the 2015 offensive line. After every offensive line starter missed at least some time during the 2015 season, and they were forced to play Don Barclay at left tackle in a disastrous game in Arizona, the Packers responded by drafting two offensive lineman in 2016. 

Right now, the only running back on the roster is Ty Montgomery, though former practice squad players John Crockett and Don Jackson finished the season on I.R. I'm a big Montgomery believer but he's only one guy and is often hurt or trying to return from injury. They can't rely on him exclusively. They are thin! Where do they go from here?

Free agency. GM Ted Thompson's least favorite place. I'm not a fan either. There are some big names available (Adrian Peterson! Jamaal Charles!) that I can't imagine Thompson pursuing. At least one former player has said Peterson's a really bad idea, and he certainly knows the Packers' front office better than we do. James Starks is already gone, and I haven't seen any interest in re-signing Christine Michael. It's really easy to see them re-sign Eddie Lacy, who's exactly the type of running back Mike McCarthy prefers, but after two injury filled seasons, he's not someone they can rely on. So maybe Lacy (depending on whether a market emerges for him) and probably no one else.

The draft. Since the roster is bare and free agency is a no-go, this is really the only option. If they want to draft a new version of Eddie Lacy, runners like D'Onta Foreman and James Conner will be available in the mid-rounds. The Packers have previously drafted versatile backs like Johnathan Franklin in 2013, Alex Green in 2011, and Brandon Jackson in 2007, but none of those players were very successful. I'm not sure if they've given up looking for those types of backs but a bigger back seems much more likely.

If Jackson and Crockett return (exclusive rights free agents are usually brought back) to go along with Montgomery, and then the Packers re-sign Lacy on a one-year deal, they can draft a big McCarthy type back with a mid-round pick (Foreman, Connor, whoever) and give themselves five running backs. It's almost a given they'll sign at least one undrafted rookie back after the draft, but because of their concerns surrounding Lacy and even Montgomery, I could see them wanting to draft a better caliber player so they aren't forced to started an undrafted rookie again, like they did last season with Jackson. If the Packers do draft multiple players at any one position in 2017, running back might be the spot.