I've given up on waiting for the Packers to draft Aaron Rodgers a receiver

ESPN had an interesting stat that doesn't mean anything:

In 15 seasons, Aaron Rodgers has thrown only ONE touchdown pass to a first-round pick.

It was to tight end Marcedes Lewis. pic.twitter.com/kQYMXqcSnz

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) April 28, 2020

Except it does show how different teams approach roster construction. The Colts selected Marvin Harrison in the first round before they had Peyton Manning and then added Reggie Wayne with a 1st round pick during Manning's career. The Packers never use a 1st round pick on a wide receiver. Both approaches work.

But the ESPN's stat did remind me how the Packers have avoided the wide receiver position over the past five drafts. Here's a list of players who have caught more than 10 TD passes from Rodgers:

Nelson 65, Jones 41, Cobb 39, Adams 39, Jennings 38, Driver 22, Finley 19, Other Rodgers 13.

The top five are wide receivers drafted in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. The last time that happened the Packers drafted "wide receiver" Ty Montgomery in the 3rd round in 2015. Adams was a 2nd round pick in 2014.

There are also two tight ends, but they are always secondary for Rodgers. His favorite targets have always been his wide receivers. Those are the quality players he needs to succeed and the Packers have failed him over the past few years in that regard.

Instead the Packers have drafted a quantity of wide receivers in recent years and none higher than the immortal J'Mon Moore in the 4th round in 2018. I'll skip the 2020 draft class because we don't know how good they are yet. Looking back in the 2nd and 3rd rounds from 2016 through 2019 there have been 35 wide receivers drafted. I'm cherry picking but here are the big names and imagine them filling out a fantasy team roster:

Sterling Shepard, Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin.

That's 14 out of 35 players who would be the clear No. 2 next to Adams. Not great odds but if they had drafted one per year they would have had at least one of them. And it's also a high ceiling with a list that includes some of the best receivers in the NFL and some who are better than Adams. And the Packers are historically really good at finding 2nd round receivers.

Instead of looking back and seeing that Rodgers needs quality receivers they've decided that they need to draft a power running back and three offensive lineman. The organization has gotten it wrong.

What The Packers Will Look Like Over The Next Few Years

The NFL is a copycat league and it looks like the Packers are copying the Tennessee Titans and the San Francisco 49ers.

The Titans connection is even stronger with the HC Matt Lafleur. Ben Fennell comped RB AJ Dillon to former Falcons RB TJ Duckett. On ESPN someone commented that Dillon was one of those big backs you used to see teams draft in the 1st round. Used to. Instead it looks like the Packers view Dillon as their Derrick Henry.

Since DC Mike Pettine can't scheme up a run defense I'm sure the Packers were very impressed with what they saw from the 49ers in their two match-ups last season. A run first team with a strong defense who asks their QB to do just enough got to the Super Bowl. Of course the Packers haven't done much to make their strong defense a reality by bringing back Pettine who I expect will do more of the same next year. Also the 49ers loaded up their defense before last season with Nick Bosa and Dee Ford while the Packers have only added ILB Christian Kirksey (if healthy) to take over for Blake Martinez.

It's interesting to watch the Denver Broncos copy a different team. I only watched one entire Broncos game last season and it was their game against the Packers. The Broncos offense was plain vanilla. Run the ball, don't ask too much from Joe Flacco, and slowly move down the field.

Instead of doing more of the same next season it looks like the Broncos took that Chiefs game film to heart. The 49ers's scheme worked in the Super Bowl until it didn't and Jimmy G had to do something. And he couldn't against a mediocre Chiefs defense. Instead MVP QB Patrick Mahomes led the comeback against the 49ers's great defense.

This offseason the Broncos hired OC Pat Shurmur. He's a boring retread but he's also spent a lot of time with Chiefs HC Andy Reid. He knows better than probably anyone what the Chiefs want to do on offense. Drew Lock and his cannon arm take over at QB. Their 1st round pick is the best WR available (caution-might have bad knees) Jerry Jeudy. Penn State WR KJ Hamler in the 2nd round, he might have to be schemed open but he's a big play waiting to happen when he does get the ball. They did sign RB Melvin Gordon to big money for some reason but he won't hurt them unless he keeps RB Phillip Lindsay off the field. There are some big question marks here; is Lock really the guy, are Jeudy's knees really a concern, is Hamler undersized. But I love what they're doing. And the Broncos already have one of the best WRs in the NFL in Courtland Sutton.

The Broncos just raised the ceiling on their big play passing offense while the Packers just brought their's down with a new run focused offense. The Broncos might be going toe-to-toe with Mahomes and the Chiefs for the next few years. The Packers will be led by franchise RB AJ Dillon and game manager QB Jordan Love, battling for that last playoff spot and a first round exit.

In The Third Round The Packers Select TE Josiah Deguara

By itself selecting TE Josiah Deguara is a good move for the Packers.

Josiah Deguara had 15 targets on throws beyond 20+ yards

4th most among draft-eligible TEs pic.twitter.com/uX0nFl3TuH

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) April 25, 2020

They released TE Jimmy Graham and they hadn't added anyone to replace him. I'd rather have a TE who's a receiving threat than a blocker. The stat above shows that Deguara is also a nice deep threat too.

The only times that Graham succeeded last season were on the one or two plays per game when the defense would completely forget about him and he'd find himself wide open for a big gain. Next season when Deguara gets onto the field, I expect defenses will ignore the rookie 3rd string TE and that might work out well for a few big plays next season.

Top Thing I Hate Today: Packers Draft Jordan Love

I've been having a really tough time with life. 2019 was an exhausting year and I gave up on my career of the last 15 years. 2020 has been a tough professional transition from one of hope into one of daily disappointment. As I struggle with the parts of my life that I can control, I really didn't need the Green Bay Packers to use a 1st round pick (AND trade up in the 1st round!) for Jordan Forking Love.

Bad news: Jordan Love led FBS with 17 interceptions in 2019.

Good news: The only player in Common Draft Era to lead FBS in interceptions in his final season and get drafted in the 1st Round is Hall of Famer Dan Marino. pic.twitter.com/2teuHGPVSE

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 24, 2020

The rule is that college QBs who throw a lot of INTs are not good NFL prospects, and that Dan Marino is the exception who proves the rule.

But I'm going to start out by defending the selection because after Love it looks like there was no other player left with a first round grade on the Packers' draft board. Here are the players selected in the first round after him:

• ILB Jordan Brooks, Texas Tech, a one-dimensional run stopping linebacker with limited coverage skills. 
• ILB Patrick Queen. LSU, a one-year starter in college.
• OT Isaiah Wilson, Georgia, a slow giant who might be a turnstile in pass protection.
• CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn, a future slot corner with no ball skills.
• CB Jeff Gladney, TCU, an undersized corner who might not have the physical skills to overcome being too short.
• RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU, running backs are not valuable enough to use a first round pick on them in the modern NFL.

The highest pick to be traded on draft day was No. 13, and even then the 49ers only moved down one spot. Only one team (New England, of course) managed to trade out of the first round on draft day. Teams did not want any part of this year's first round.

There was talk before the draft that the Packers were talking about trading up but it probably wasn't worth the cost in a weak first round. They probably couldn't have traded out of the first round either because no other non-New England team did it. I hate trading up but the cost was only a late 4th round pick and I don't mind them trading away any pick after the third round.

But the Packers have to be better evaluators of talent then almost everyone else for this to succeed. If they didn't really believe in Love either and took him because he was the only high-risk player remaining on their draft board with a first round grade then they couldn't see the forest for the trees.

To excuse this selection there are going to be a lot of comparisons to back when Ted Thompson surprised everyone by selecting Aaron Rodgers in the first round. Rodgers was a great prospect, not perfect so I understand some of the reasons why he slipped, but he got better each year and only threw 13 INTs total in two years at Cal. Love threw 17 INTs last season. I'm a big believer in college INTs as an indicator of future NFL accuracy and the ESPN stats above back me up. 

Rodgers falling in the 2005 draft was as if Tua had fell to the Packers. I'd be writing about how Tua was way too good to pass on despite his injury history and I would have applauded them. Love is no Tua.

What should the Packers have done instead?

The Packers need to improve on or replace Kevin King at CB, Billy Turner at RG, Bryan Bulaga at RT and everyone not named Davante Adams at WR. They've needed a dynamic inside LB for so many years that I've given up on it ever happening. But it was very unlikely that anyone drafted at the end of the first round would actually have started in Week 1 at any position. 

However I expect that they are still going to draft some other players over the next couple days. I assume that there are still many players available who have a second round grade on their draft board. They should have treated their first round pick like an expensive second round pick. There would have certainly been a WR available.

Coming off an NFC Championship appearance they should have risked some of their future to win now while the window is still open. But maybe the moves weren't available if it turns out to be a weak draft class and they couldn't attract the players they needed in free agency because of the situation and the salary cap. Free agents know it's cold in Green Bay. Maybe all they could have done is added some depth in the draft. Or maybe I'm wrong and Jordan Love is going to be a great pro QB in a couple years. 

But today this doesn't feel right.