Monday, November 27, 2017

Packers Surprise in Pittsburgh, Lose on Last Second FG, 31-28

That was an entertaining game! The Green Bay Packers had gotten overwhelmed at home in two of their prior three games (vs. Lions and Ravens) and have lost five of their last six (all the games finished by QB Brett Hundley) so I wasn't expecting much against the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but the Packers proved me wrong.
Despite a great game in Pittsburgh, I'm at the same place I was on Hundley after last week. He's a next generation Matt Flynn, a backup who can catch fire one week and become a disaster the following week. He looked much better against the Steelers than the Ravens mostly because he had good protection, and the Steelers have some serious issues in coverage (allowing deep touchdown passes to Davante Adams and Randall Cobb). Once the Steelers dialed up the pressure and forced him to do something outside of the pocket, it usually ended in an incompletion or a sack. He's still limited, but on Sunday night he did more than enough to win them the game.

All that time to throw means that the offensive line deserves credit for providing the clean pocket that led to some big plays, and a special mention for Jason Spriggs, who got the unexpected start at right tackle and probably his best game as a pro. There are still issues on the line but this was a big game for them. Hundley is only going to be as good as they are.

Also, rookie RB Jamal Williams ran hard and made some moves in the open field on his long receiving touchdown. His yards per carry isn't impressive (3.1 ypc) but the Steelers brought DBs up later in the game to take away his running lanes and stop the run. It's hard to run when their are defenders running unblocked at you in the backfield.
The defense forced three turnovers, those turnovers along with the big plays on offense kept the Packers in this game. But when the Steelers weren't turning the ball over, they were doing pretty much whatever they wanted to against the Packers D. Rookie CB Kevin King is far from a complete player, but he's their best cover corner and missed much of the game with a shoulder injury. In his place, CB Josh Hawkins and CB Davon House got roasted, mostly by WR Antonio Brown. While Brown is arguable the best player in the NFL, the Packers gave their corners safety help on seemingly every play against Brown and he still torched them.

The biggest problem was that the Packers pass rush was completely useless. Their only sack was due to tight coverage, and Roethlisberger held the ball for about 5 seconds in the pocket before DT Mike Daniels finally got to him. They gave him a clean pocket most of the night. OLB Clay Matthews was hurt and didn't play but his best pass rushing days are behind him anyway. He wouldn't have helped much on the rush, but DT Kenny Clark is probably their best player on defense this season and he also missed this game. Having his strength and energy at the line would have made a difference.

Eventually the run defense wore out, they were on the field almost the entire first half, and the tackling got sloppy, leading to a big 4th quarter for Le'Veon Bell. But to their credit, they were solid in the first half and into the 3rd quarter.

After last week's embarrassing loss to the Ravens, it has to feel good to have shown up for a road game against one of the best teams in the AFC. I'd still like them to stay competitive this season and finish with 8 wins, and this loss is a good place to start. I hate moral victories, but it's been so bad at times this season that they need to take them when they find them. In their upcoming games, they have to follow the same blueprint they followed against the Steelers; win the turnover battle, don't get away from the ground game, keep looking for those deep sideline passes, and hopefully get Kenny Clark back soon.
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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Packers Shut Out At Home By Ravens

I'm writing this a couple days later than usual because I couldn't stand to think about that awful game immediately after it happened. I went and binge watched Mindhunter on Netflix instead.

Looking back a couple days later, as depressing as the game was on Sunday, it still seemed like during the game that the Green Bay Packers could have turned it around. The Baltimore Ravens offense is a mess so this game didn't feel out of reach until the 4th quarter. Despite 3 first half turnover, the Ravens only had 6 points at half. The Ravens only had 219 yards of offense for the entire game!

Otherwise, this game was a lot like their previous home loss to the Lions, except the Lions have a functioning offense that put the game out of reach in the 2nd quarter.

There's a lot I could write about; the weak pass rush, the depleted, exposed secondary, this might finally be the end for DC Dom Capers, the running game misses Aaron Jones (and, though he's still a major league ass, the run blocking of Martellus Bennett), that Jason Spriggs returned from IR and brought his bad pass blocking back with him. But none of that really matters until the Packers get their starting quarterback back and send Brett Hundley to the bench.

Though I have to say that Hundley is a usable backup quarterback. He should never be handed a starting job on a full-time basis, but he has moments and that's really all that can be expected from a backup. If Rodgers is injured during a game, it's at least possible that Hundley could catch fire and finish the hypothetical game with a win. Someday he might even be as good as Matt Flynn was.
The worst sight is seeing Hundley back in the pocket, with pressure in his face. In that situation, he'll either run backwards 10 yards, take a sack, or throw an ill-advised pass into the middle of the field. The best he's done on any broken play is run for a first down. Every upcoming defensive coordinator should keep on disguising coverage (because he's not seeing the field) and blitz the heck out of him. Put pressure on him, take away his first read, and he's done.

A run heavy game plan isn't a formula for success, there's no NFL team who's currently successful with it, but the ground game has been working for the Packers. They also have to work the sidelines with deep passes to Adams and Nelson, which would keep the safety honest against the run and Hundley is best at throwing outside the numbers. They should be avoiding passes to the middle of the field at all costs. Above all else, they have to avoid all turnovers.

That strategy would really limit the offense and wouldn't stress opposing defenses. But it would keep them competitive in games against teams without much offense and it give them a couple wins. The playoffs aren't realistic so it's best to just keep each game as competitive as possible and give the fans something to stay for through the 4th quarter.
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Monday, November 13, 2017

Packers End Three Game Losing Streak, Defeat Bears, 23-16

It was hardly a blow out win for the Green Bay Packers. It took an assist from a sloppy Bears team (8 penalties) and one of the worst coaches' challenges of all time, but their three game losing streak is over.
The run defense was good for the second week in a row and this time it was against a good rushing attack (Bears) instead of one that is usually among the worst in the league (Lions). But the pass defense was a mess again. They did record 5 sacks, which usually happened when the coverage held up downfield. But the Bears have probably the worst group of receivers in the league, it's so bad that Dontrelle Inman immediately became their No. 1 receiver after one week of practices. Inman had 58 receptions in 2016 but only had 2 with the Chargers in 2017 before his trade last week to the Bears. Trubisky had never completed more than 20 passes or thrown for more than 200 yards in a game until he faced the Packers. The Bears' top 3 wide receivers (and targets) combined for 13 receptions, 189 yards and 1 touchdown, which was more than the Packers' top 3 wide receivers combined (11 rec., 162 yards and 1 touchdown).

There's not much that can be done to improve that unit the rest of the season. CB Davon House is getting worse, Trubisky seemed to be targeting him in coverage during the 2nd half. CB Kevin King is their best cornerback, but he still has a couple plays per game when he looks like a rookie. CB Damarious Randall has been better at playing in Morgan Burnett's hybrid role but they already have Burnett (when healthy) to play there. S Kentrell Brice is on IR and not coming back this season, not that he was making much of a difference anyway. At least they have an easier match-up against QB Joe Flacco next week.

As for their new quarterback:
This was Hundley's best game as a starter but he's still inexperienced. He's making crazy mistakes like when he called a timeout for no reason and when he threw the ball away on a busted play instead of running into about 10 yards of open green in front of him. He shouldn't be taking so many sacks and he needs to quit running backwards in a loop for about 10 yards whenever he's forced out (or thinks he's being forced out) of the pocket. Some quarterbacks never figure these things out but at this point I'm willing to cut him a little slack in his first three NFL starts.

And despite everything I wrote above, this was his best NFL game against a solid Bears' defense in wet weather conditions. He made a couple of highlight reel completions to Adams, including one for a touchdown, and he didn't turn the ball over. He wasn't very mobile, at some point during the game he injured his hamstring and played through it, but he still ran for a big 1st down late in the game and he's already run for two touchdowns in his first 3 NFL starts. His completion percentage was over 70% for the game.

A win is always a good thing, and at least the Packers looked a lot better than they did against the Lions. I'm not looking for a big playoff run or expect Hundley to transform into Rodgers v.2 by season's end, but they played better and hopefully they keep it up over the next 7 games.
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Friday, November 10, 2017

The Packers Problems Are More Than Just Hundley and Bennett

There's a lot going on with the Green Bay Packers between QB Brett Hundley playing poorly, Colin Kaepernick questions swirling around, and TE Martellus Bennett quitting on them. But don't sleep on the fact that the defense got rolled by Matthew Stafford last Sunday and the wheels seem to be coming off.
I've been wondering what the heck the Packers' safeties have been doing this season (Morgan Burnett is playing well, when healthy, but he's been a linebacker/slot corner this season). I've rarely seen any of them with a big pass defense or turnover. They usually show up one or two seconds late after a big gain to get in on a tackle. Against a team built around a short passing game, like the Lions, I'd expect the safeties are playing a little deep but then ready to come crashing down on the short yardage play. They're kind of doing it but the crashing down is tentative and it's not blowing up any plays.
Again, there are reasons the coaches are running this hybrid combo coverage to try and confuse the quarterback (a questionable decision against a veteran like Stafford). But when the pass rush doesn't come anywhere near Stafford, he can wait a couple seconds until the cornerback releases the receiver into the massive void created between the corner and the deep, deep safety. Also, while Stafford isn't always accurate, he was really sharp last Sunday, though I don't know I'd scheme with the expectation that the quarterback isn't going to be accurate. I'm not sure why the safeties have to be so deep against a Lions team without much of a downfield passing threat. I don't know everything that's going on here, but the results on both of the above plays is that it made it way too easy for the Lions.

There were some good things that happened on defense. DT Kenny Clark played great and along with Mike Daniels they shut down the middle of the line against the run. DE Dean Lowry isn't much of a pass rusher but he's turned into a good early down lineman. And OLB Vince Biegel was good in his first action of the year, considering he's only played about a one week's worth of football in 2017, and he'll be a big upgrade in the rotation over Fackrell and Odom, once they let Biegel's snap count go up.
I don't know what to say of a rested defense coming off a bye week, at home against an opponent they know so well, who gets rolled like this. I'm thinking of a lot of things and some of them could be very bad for the rest of this season and cost a lot of coaches and players there jobs in the offseason. Maybe that's what needs to happen in January.
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Tuesday, November 07, 2017

Packers Lose Third Straight: Packers 17, Lions 30

Sometimes you lose by 13 points and the game is closer than the score might indicate. This was the opposite of that for the Green Bay Packers. They were outplayed badly on defense and on offense. They came off the bye week as flat as any well rested team can be. I mentally checked out in the 2nd quarter and started comparing them to the 1987 Green Bay Packers (the defense was better that season). A team that can't score more than 20 points or hold any opponent to under 20 points is going to be bad.
The Lions can't run the ball (and didn't) but they have an effective short passing game that feasted on a Packer team with no pass rush and defensive backs who couldn't keep up with any receivers (they only recorded 1 pass defense). I wasn't optimistic about the secondary coming into the season. They've been better than last season's horror show but they're still bad.
The good news is that the defense is going to look a whole lot better over their next two games, when they battle two quarterbacks (Mitchell Trubisky and Joe Elite Flacco) who have lower QBRs than Brett Hundley.
Midway through the 3rd quarter, the Packers had the ball on 4th down at midfield. If Aaron Rodgers was on the field, the Packers would have run a quick slant or maybe a naked bootleg off play action. But with Hundley, they ran a pseudo jet sweep with WR Randall Cobb that lost 3 yards, and led to the above tweet by former Packer TE Tom Crabtree.

Maybe he's just the next great garbage time quarterback. Until early in the 4th quarter it looked like he would be held to under 100 yards passing for the 2nd straight game but two late touchdown drives after the game was out of reach boosted his passing yardage to 245, his completion percentage to 68.4% and his QBR to 51.5.

The optimist sees that 4th quarter and thinks he's adjusting to the starting role. The realist is still thinking back to the 2nd quarter:
He's been really bad over the past 2+ games but there aren't any better solutions on the roster. He got his starting offensive line back (except now it looks like Bryan Bulaga's season is over) and maybe 4 out of 5 ain't bad. The 4th quarter was probably a mirage but an optimist can say it was a sign of hope. It doesn't get any easier for him the rest of November with three good to great defenses ahead on the schedule. I'm not expecting any playoff run in their future but I do hope that Hundley can keep improving enough to make their games watchable and competitive for the rest of the season.
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