Thursday, July 19, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Tight Ends

Some years I wouldn't give the TE position a post all its own, but this has been quite the offseason.
Despite name recognition and the highlight real above, its easy to be critical of this signing. TE Jimmy Graham isn't what he was during his peak days with the Saints. According to Football Outsiders, he was the 27th best TE last season, a few spots behind the Packers's other free agent TE signing, Marcedes Lewis. While he was a big red zone target (10 TD receptions) he wasn't much of a help otherwise with a poor 59% catch rate and only 520 receiving yards on 96 targets.

But they had to have him. Over the past few seasons, the offense has struggled without a quality receiving TE. The offense stalled in 2015 without WR Jordy Nelson and a receiving TE, and the 2016 offense only got in gear after TE Jared Cook returned from an early season injury.

Also, they had to go to into free agency because to draft and develop a rookie TE is a crapshoot. After Jermichael Finley retired, they drafted Richard Rodgers, but he never developed into much and wound up signing a small contract with Philadelphia in free agency. They can't afford to miss on another Richard Rodgers.

As a receiver, Lewis will sort of duplicate Graham's role as a red zone target, which isn't a bad thing. Though neither of them will stretch the middle of the field. TE Lance Kendrick might look better in 2018 catching passes from Aaron Rodgers instead of being used as a short yardage dump-off receiver who had trouble with dropped passes, as he was in 2017.

It's depressing that Graham is only in Green Bay because the 2017 offseason was such a disaster. That's not to blame them for viewing TE Martellus Bennett as an upgrade over Jared Cook, I agreed with their decision, but it obviously backfired in about the worst way possible and set them back a year.

Despite having three veteran TEs already on the roster, the Packers have another four previously undrafted TEs coming into training camp, led by former practice squad player Emanuel Byrd, who received a dozen snaps during their embarrassing Week 17 surrender in Detroit last season. Mike McCarthy's love of blocking TEs might create an opportunity for one of them with a strong camp.
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Friday, July 13, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Running Backs

And the Green Bay Packers' fullbacks too. Unfortunately any discussion of this group has to start with this unfortunate news:
At least it's only 2 games and it had to do with an activity that's now legal in a lot of states.

Explosive you mention? Aaron Jones was the one back I wanted to see last season because of his big play ability. Six carries of more than 20 yards:
Player Attempts Average Carries of 20+ FO EYards
30-J.Williams 153 3.6 1 760
33-A.Jones 71 5.5 6 542
88-T.Montgomery 81 3.8 1 341
32-D.Mays 4 0.3 0 0
The coaches didn't trust the rookie enough to give him the bulk of the playing time, on the other hand maybe they were torn because they had two other very good running backs on the roster.

Jamal Williams. He only had one carry of greater than 20 yards to go along with an ugly 3.6 ypc average but his Effective Yards ranking by Football Outsiders was 12th best last season. That was the best season for a Packer running back since Eddie Lacy in 2014. He ran hard at the line and was one defender away from busting a big run on several carries plays last season. He should open the season as the starter.

Ty Montgomery. He can't stay healthy but he played OK last season before his injury. If he can stay healthy for 16 games (big if) the dynamic player we saw during the 2016 season could quickly return.

Devante Mays didn't show much when given an opportunity, which wasn't very often, and he was overshadowed by his fellow rookies Williams and Jones. But there's a two game suspension on Jones's horizon so Mays should make it to Week 3 before the Packers have to make a decision on him.

Joel Bouganon was an undrafted rookie in 2017 and spent some time last season with the Bears. He has an interesting combination of athleticism and size, but he might not have the straight-line speed to stick. Him and Mays might be an interesting preseason decision.

Aaron Ripkowski only had 178 snaps last season (less than 20% of offensive plays) and the idea of him as a short-yardage runner seemed to have died when he fumbled during the 2016 NFC Championship game. Last season he blocked a lot, caught a few passes out of the back field and played a lot on special teams. He'll probably do the same next season, and backup FB Joe Kerrigan will be his understudy again, if they have still have an available roster spot for a backup fullback.
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Monday, July 09, 2018

2018 Packers Training Camp Roster: Quarterbacks

It's been hard for me to write about the Green Bay Packers over the past few months for a couple reasons. The 2017 season showcased all of the roster weaknesses and how they could barely compete without QB Aaron Rodgers. The offseason hasn't been much better, with the departures of GM Ted Thompson and WR Jordy Nelson, the release of the latter still hurts.

But there's no time to look back and its time to look ahead to the 2018 roster. As I go through the offensive and defensive positions, I'll start with an easy position.

Here are the 2017 snap counts per NFL GSIS via Football Outsiders:
Player Snaps Off. Snap % Total QBR
7-B.Hundley 622 59.4% 41.2
12-A.Rodgers 418 39.9% 62.6
9-D.Kizer (CLE) 887 83.0% 29.4
8-T.Boyle 0 0% 0
There's no question who the starter is going to be.
While Rodgers's Total QBR fell by over 10 points in 2017 from 2016, most of the fall might have come from his only start after breaking his collarbone, a 3 INT performance in Carolina. There should be no concern about his return from injury, he came back from his previous collarbone injury to win the 2014 MVP.

Brett Hundley is still on the roster. He was useless in most of his starts last season, with an inexplicably good game in Pittsburgh in-between. He has no trade value anymore. He's not practice squad eligible and I can't see them keeping a 3rd QB on the 53-man roster. It won't happen until the end of the preseason, but they're going to release him.

DeShone Kizer. He was so terrible last season in Cleveland. Though he does have NFL size and athleticism, and his college stats are good. They paid too much in trade for him, but he should be better than his 2017 Total QBR of 29.4 and also better than Brett Hundley. Also, he's still so young.

Tim Boyle. How young is Kizer? He's a year younger than undrafted rookie Tim Boyle, who also has NFL size and athleticism though his college stats are a disaster. He sat out the 2016 season after transferring to Eastern Kentucky and he was a lot better in 2017 as their starter. Though he threw too many INTs last season in college. He's a candidate for the practice squad, where they usually stash a Joe Callahan-type, but he might be so raw that another better option could appear on the waiver wire during the preseason.
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