Friday, August 09, 2019

Packers Preseason Week 1: Packers defeat Texans 28-26 at Lambeau

Both the Packers and Texans rested nearly all of their starters in their preseason opener so there wasn't a lot of good football to watch. Almost everyone on the field is inexperienced and fighting for their NFL careers. Also, a starting QB match-up between Joe Webb (it's amazing he's still being given chances at NFL QB) and DeShone Kizer isn't must-see TV. If you're wondering how the Kizer Project is going, Tim Boyle still looks clearly better than him.

But almost all of their top 2019 draft choices played so it was a good opportunity to get a first look at them.
1st round: LB Rashan Gary. He looked fine, but when Reggie Gilbert came in to sub for him, the two were almost indistinguishable. I like Gilbert, but he didn't show much last regular season when given an expanded role and I was expecting a lot more from a high first round pick (Gary) than a former undrafted free agent (Gilbert). Late in the game, undrafted rookie free agent Randy Ramsey got a huge sack from Gary's position over the right tackle, however, the Texans also left Ramsey completely unblocked.

1st round: S Darnell Savage. He played deep safety alongside Raven Greene (who's become a favorite bench player) during the 1st quarter so he was off the screen for most of his time on the field. Greene had a bigger impact because the Texans were throwing more to his side and he also forced a fumble on running back Taiwan Jones.  Nothing much to report, I hope the coaches liked the little they saw from him.

2nd round: OL Elgton Jenkins. I still don't believe in free agent OG Billy Turner (who didn't play along with most of the other veterans) and hope Jenkins wins the job at right guard. Instead he might win OG Lane Taylor's job at left guard, Taylor was one of the few veterans who did play against the Texans so his job might be in danger. On a side note, I thought Taylor was so bad during the 2016 preseason that he was going to be released then, instead they released Josh Sitton and gave Taylor the starting job, so I haven't been a Taylor fan for a while. Jenkins looked pretty good at getting a push on running plays and holding his ground in pass protection while playing at both center and guard. However, since Jenkins played into the 3rd quarter, and played at two positions, it looks like he's being groomed as the #1 backup interior lineman instead of as a starter.

3rd round: TE Jace Sternberger. He didn't play after taking a big hit during the a joint practice with the Texans earlier this week. In a bit of karma, during the preseason game, Tim Boyle threw a touchdown pass to WR Allen Lazard while Texans CB Lonnie Johnson (who hit Sternberger and then flexed over him) was in coverage on him.

I won't go into detail with the rest of the undrafted rookies and remaining 2019 draft choices. DT Kingsley Keke had a nice game, he showed he can be a rotational guy who can provide an inside rush against less offensive lineman (it's hard to judge him since the Texans' OL is so bad). Preseason results aren't a measure of whether a player will make the team. Though preseason dropped passes (WR J'Mon Moore) or fumbles (RB Darrin Hall) make it clear why someone was released.
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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Packers Sign FOUR free agents: Smith and Smith, Amos and Billy Turner

The first couple days of NFL free agency is for suckers. Most of the teams that spend big early come away disappointed. You know, like how that TE Jimmy Graham signing didn't go well last year. So it's making me very nervous to see big spending from the Green Bay Packers at the start of free agency.

At least the players they did sign fit what I would ideally hope for in a free agent. They're all in their 20s, all signing their first deal after their rookie contract expired (except Turner), and they've all missed few games to injury. As a bonus, Amos's signing weakens a division rival.
They badly needed young, productive edge rushers, and here's their first one. He's typically been a part-time player for the Ravens so he shouldn't stop the Packers from using a high draft pick on another edge rusher. The money is huge but that's what edge rusher cost in free agency.
The other Mr. Smith seems like who the Packers hoped they would get when they re-signed Nick Perry a couple years ago. He looks good against the run too, which is something Packer edge defenders struggled with last year, but he's getting paid because they'll need him to rush the quarterback.

As an added bonus, neither one of the Smiths cost a 2nd round pick (like the 49ers are trading to the Chiefs just for the right to sign Dee Ford to a big contract). I'd rather have had Trey Flowers at his price than either of the Smiths at their price, but Flowers probably wasn't an option once his old Patriot friends in Detroit came calling.
A year ago I was coming to terms that the Packers were going to overpay Ha Ha Clinton-Dix for his mediocre play because they had no one anywhere near as good as him at safety. A year later, the Packers have Amos and an extra 3rd round pick from the Redskins. Amos is expensive but his cost wasn't at the top of the safety market, he's really solid, and he weakens a division rival as a bonus.

And finally, what the hell?
Ben Fennell's work is exceptional and the best he can say about Billy Turner is that "he'll join the mix." He might beat out McCray, who was terrible last season and I don't want to see back in 2019. Would any Packer fan want to pay McCray $16 million over the next two years? The best I can say about Turner is that he's really big and he looks very strong.

I went back and watched the first half of Week 17 of the Broncos game against the Chargers. Turner was terrible. I know, it's a small sample size, but that first half confirmed everything I read about him. In that game he committed at least one holding penalty and he lost his balance too easily in pass protection. On a couple occasions he let a Charger interior rusher run right at Case Keenum after a strong push made Turner lean back on his heals and open up a lane to the QB for the defender. He looks really stiff. Byron Bell was awful last season and Turner looked confused in space like Bell did many times last season. Forget what I said earlier about paying McCray $16 million over 2 years, how about paying Bell $16 million over 2 years?

I can see how Turner could "play" tackle too (probably as well as Bell). The Packers really need a backup tackle for the inevitable Bryan Bulaga injury but in no way is that backup Turner. I hope they use all their mid-round draft picks on offensive lineman, one of them has to be better than Turner.

The Turner signing might be the low point in Packer free agent history but the other free agents should work out. While Nick Perry was basically signed at the same point in his career as the Smiths, neither of the Smiths are as injury prone as Perry. Both of them, along with Amos, fill major needs. There could be buyer's remorse with any or all of these three in a couple years but right now they look solid. And hopefully Turner's contract is off the books by 2021.
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Tuesday, January 08, 2019

The Packers Will Hire Matt LaFleur as Their Next Head Coach

It looks like the entire goal of the hiring process for the Green Bay Packers was to find a young offensive genius to be their next head coach:
Oh and to make sure Ron Zook still has a job...
Only Pettine is mentioned and not all the coaches don't need to be retained. I have no problem with keeping Pettine, the defense showed some early to mid-season promise. They fell off a cliff at the end of the year but they also lost their defensive MVP Kenny Clark for those last 3 games. It's not unheard of to keep the defensive coaches intact when a new offensive minded head coach is hired. But I can't believe he'll keep all the offensive coaches and different running game/passing game coordinators they had last season. Isn't Murphy expecting LaFleur to bring his own style of offense to Green Bay?

After I heard the announcement, I went and watched a bunch of Titans games (with Mariota at QB, nothing with Gabbert). Including some of their bad ones against great defensive teams (Bills and Ravens). I criticized McCarthy for not running the ball enough but this is a bit ridiculous.
That 48.4% also included a few designed runs by Mariota which maybe was the reason he didn't make it through the year and the Titans had to start Gabbert for their must win Week 17 game (they lost). It might have also been due in part to carryover a mostly run heavy offensive roster from the previous coaching regime. But the Titans weren't run heavy in every game so I'm not expecting LaFleur's bringing his 48.4% run percentage to Green Bay.

That comment above about Aaron Jones is true, the Titans loved getting touches to Dion Lewis, who's role in Green Bay would be played by Jones. McCarthy's complete avoidance of using his backs as threats in the passing game was frustrating so LaFleur should be a welcome change.

Overall it was pretty depressing to watch the 2018 Titans offense. Maybe Mariota just doesn't get it, he doesn't have a feel for what the defense is doing or where his receivers are going. And he doesn't do well with pressure. The Titans didn't have any receiving threat as dangerous as Davante Adams either. Maybe LaFleur's hands were tied.

In a lot of ways, LaFleur's offense looked like every other offense in the NFL (it's a copy cat league after all). He'd try some different motions one way to misdirect on a play going the other way, but usually early in the game and those types of plays would be rare later. Mariota threw a lot to the middle of the field, something Rodgers doesn't do much. The Titans also played a lot in a bunch formation, I guess that helps LaFleur's QBs read the coverage better or disguise the route trees from the receivers, but it didn't seem to help the Titans that much.

Maybe the most important thing is to get a young energetic coach who will probably work himself to death and hopefully earn Aaron Rodgers's respect. While Rodgers still had a statistically strong 2018 season in some ways (an amazing TD to INT ratio as an example) the offense just looked confused too often. Relying heavily on two rookie WRs was part of the problem, the early season loss of Geronimo Allison was another problem I didn't write enough about last year. And, of course, the relationship breakdown between Rodgers and McCarthy. Hopefully the plan LaFleur sold to Murphy was a good one, and he can realize it with a better QB.
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