Friday, October 08, 2004

The Packers finally traded CB Mike McKenzie for a 2nd round pick from New Orleans. McKenzie was good, but not worth a 1st round pick. The Packers traded a 2nd round pick for a similar cornerback, CB Al Harris, last season. If McKenzie was really lying about his hamstring injury, although he was probably just being overcautious because he was playing for a new job, then McKenzie should have been punished instead of rewarded with the trade he wanted. Unfortunately, McKenzie was making a bad situation worse by managing to get paid for sitting out games. At that point, the Packers probably made the best of the situation by trading McKenzie while they could still acquire something for him. If McKenzie was really hurt, would New Orleans have actually traded for him?

Of course the real steal of this deal is up-and-comer QB J.T. O'Sullivan. And I've got a bridge for sale too. Other than New Orleans coaches and diehard preseason fans, almost no one is probably familar with O'Sullivan. One thing Mike Sherman has established as general manager of the Packers is that he has a bad eye for quarterbacks. Sherman has acquired QB Craig Nall, QB Akili Smith, QB Eric Crouch, and QB Tim Couch, who have all shown an inability to improve into useful NFL quarterbacks. If O'Sullivan turns out to actually be a good NFL quarterback, then he will be a first for Sherman.

After the Packers traded for O'Sullivan, it seemed unlikely that the Packers would keep four quarterbacks on the roster, so QB Doug Pederson's back injury might have encouraged the trade for O'Sullivan. ESPN.com reported that Pederson was hurt in the 3rd quarter, and he probably shouldn't have played after it, but Pederson apparently didn't tell the Packers how serious it was. QB Craig Nall couldn't have entered the game until the 4th quarter (because 3rd QBs are technically inactive until the 4th quarter), so that might have encouraged Pederson to hide the injury.

DT Larry Smith is back with the Packers. Smith can play nose tackle, although he didn't look good in the preseason at the position. His poor preseason play might have been due to the fact that he was playing injured, but who knows if he is yet 100%. Smith played well down the stretch in 2002, so he has proved himself useful in the past. Signing Smith doesn't hurt, but it might not be a big improvement.

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Packers 7, New York 14. I didn't check the last time the Packers started the season 0-2 at Lambeau, but I think its been a while. Although the score was close, the game wasn't. The Packers were more competitive while giving up 45 points in Indianapolis then they were in this game. A few points to bring up in this game:

RB Ahman Green fumbles. The Packers are 0-2 in 2004 when Green fumbles, they were 0-5 in 2003 when Green fumbles, and haven't won a game when Green fumbles since October 2002. Green's fumble vs. New York didn't lose the game, although Green's fumble vs. Chicago probably did.

QB Brett Favre has a concussion. QB Kurt Warner ended his career in St. Louis when he came back in week 1 of the 2003 season with a concussion, and didn't tell his coach about it, so Warner probably agreed when the Packers held out Favre after he suffered his concussion. Favre says he will be back next week, he probably will play, but he might not be the same player for a few weeks.

Defensive line. Although Indianapolis could have exploited the Packers poor run defense, it wasn't truly exposed until RB Tiki Barber tried to have a career game. As long as DT Cletidus Hunt is forced to play nose tackle and DT Cullen Jenkins is starting, the defensive line will continue to get shoved around. Add in that neither DE KGB and DE Aaron Kampman excel at run defense, and this is one troubled unit. The only good news is that NT Grady Jackson and NT James Lee should both come back mid-season.

Offensive line. C Grey Ruegamer had played well in limited action so far this season, but he had an awful game. Ruegamer aside, the offensive line has been no where near as dominant as it was in 2003. All blame for this can probably be assigned to the injuries to C Mike Flanagan and OG Mike Wahle. Wahle has started every game this season, but he missed most of the preseason after he injured himself during training last offseason. This unit needs to regroup and start dominating again.

Secondary. The Indianapolis game was bad enough, but the Packers secondary still looks confused. CB Michael Hawthorne isn't good enough to start, FS Darren Sharper should be moved to strong safety because he looks like he's lost a step, and CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Jason Horton have played like rookies. Hawthorne was playing a few yards off WR Tim Carter and WR Amani Toomer was wide open for a first half TD if Warner had only seen him.

Saturday, October 02, 2004

Injuries, injuries, injuries...

Is CB Mike McKenzie really hurt? Apparently nobody knows, except McKenzie, reported jsonline.com. Jsonline.com quoted OG Marco Rivera who said McKenzie did pull up lame in practice, so the article overall gives McKenzie the benefit of the doubt. Its too bad this situation has gotten so rotten, but the Packers need McKenzie and McKenzie needs the Packers to release or trade him. The situation with McKenzie remains the same; the Packers need him on the field unless they can trade him for a comparable player or high draft choice. The Packers traded a 2nd round draft choice for CB Al Harris in 2003, so there is no reason anyone should expect the Packers accept less in return than a 2nd round pick for McKenzie.

C Mike Flanagan is lost for the season. He hasn't been healthy all season, so this is not a big surprise. C Grey Ruegamer has been playing well all season, so this is not a huge dropoff in talent, but Flanagan is a very good center and he will be missed. Depth isn't a problem at the position either if backup C Scott Wells is over the injury problems he had for much of August. It hurts the depth on the offensive line, because Flanagan was probably the backup left tackle and there is no obvious backup left tackle currently on the roster. OL Steve Morley and OL Kevin Barry were considered left tackle candidates, but neither has played well enough at the position.

QB Brett Favre is hurting too, according to jsonline.com. The knee he took to the back of his leg looked like the type of leg bruise that someone would walk off given an hour or two. Its not surprising he sat out the final series in Indianapolis, but it would be shocking if he missed any more time due to the injury. Jsonline.com also reported that Favre has a trick shoulder that has been bothering him on and off for a couple of years. Who knows what to make of that.

Monday, September 27, 2004

Packers 31, Indianapolis 45. This would have been a big win for the Packers, so its not surprising that they lost. It would have been an upset victory under any circumstances, but to win after all the injuries at nose tackle and cornerback would have been a big upset. Fortunately, the self-destruction occured in the first half and the Packers spent the second half proving they made the proper adjustments at halftime.


First Half: How did the run defense play? Who knows. Indianapolis didn't bother to run the ball in the first half. Defensive coordinator Bob Slovik had good reason to worry about Indianapolis's run offense, because the Packers were without any nose tackles (DT Cleditus Hunt filled in at NT), but Indianapolis's offensive coordinator Tom Moore was apparently much more interested in attacking the banged up secondary. The pass rush was good considering that QB Peyton Manning is one of the hardest QBs to sack in the NFL. They got some pressure on Manning, but it wasn't nearly enough. Troy Aikman even commented on it that Indianapolis was playing 3 WR (that is their base/opening snap offense) but the Packers only played 4 defensive backs and the Packers were getting shredded. WR Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison abused CB Al Harris and Michael Hawthorne, and when the Packers blitzed it left the middle of the field open for WR Brandon Stokley. The Packers offense almost kept up with Indianapolis. Favre had two long TD passes to WR Javon Walker to answer each of Indianapolis first TDs. The Packers third drive was halted by a drop by WR Donald Driver, who had two big dropped passes in the first half. The Packers had three scoring drives and one missed field goal in the first half, which would have been enough in other games. Packers 17, Indianapolis 28.

Second half: The Packers opened the half as well as it could have went. The Packers scored a TD on the opening drive and the defense actually stopped Indianapolis. Two turning points for the defense; switching to the dime and bringing in CB Jason Horton. Horton didn't play well, but he moved Hawthorne over to cover the slot receiver, where Hawthorne plays much better. Indianapolis recognized the extra defensive backs (Horton and CB Bhawoh Jue) and ran RB Edgerin James, but James never really got on track (no runs over 10 yards). James had a TD run, but that was after a few previous attempts to pound the ball in at the goal line. WR Antonio Chatman and WR Robert Ferguson had two great kick returns, probably the best two kick returns in at least the last two seasons. Hopefully the special teams continue to block that well on kicks. The Packers were stopped on three offensive drives in the second half; the first two were stopped on 3rd and long after penalties and the other was the fumble by Walker. It was the only turnover of the game, but it was huge. Its hard to blame Walker; Walker was protecting the ball, but CB Jason David perfectly ripped out the ball. Favre took a knee to the back of the leg on his last drive of the game, and hopefully that is not a lasting injury. Packers 31, Indianapolis 45.

Friday, September 24, 2004

Now the Packers are down to zero nose tackles. NT James Lee tore a ligament in his knee early in Sunday's game and proceeded to play the entire game with the injury, jsonline.com reported. Unbelievable! If you are keeping score, that's the third nose tackle lost with an injury. NT Donnell Washington is on injured reserve and done for the season. NT Grady Jackson and Lee both might come back in November. Now the Packers are reduced to playing DT Cletidus Hunt at nose tackle, and Hunt was struggling with what appeared to be a rib injury during Sunday's game. DT Kenny Peterson could be another nose tackle candidate, but he is still struggling with an ankle injury. Everyone should get used to poor run defense from the Packers for at least the next month.

C Mike Flanagan needs knee surgery, according to ESPN.com. This injury has been bothering Flanagan all preseason too, so its not a big surprise. C Grey Ruegamer can play in place of Flanagan and maybe if he is given an opportunity he can play just as well. Ruegamer hasn't been an obvious weakness in any of the games he played in so far this season.

Jsonline.com reported that CB Mike McKenzie might still be traded before the deadline in three weeks. What a side show. He played well on Sunday, but now that the Packers only have three defensive tackles left on their roster (Hunt, DT Cullen Jenkins, and DE Corey Williams-although Williams has been playing exclusively at end so far this season, jsonline.com reported that defensive coordinator Bob Slowik would move Williams inside this week) no team should spend too much time bothering to pass against a suspect run defense, and the Packers might as well trade McKenzie. Maybe they can acquire a healthy nose tackle in return.

RB Ahman Green has fumbled twice in two games. Is this a problem? Yes, fumbles are bad, but Green had no fumbles in the last 9 games in 2003. Does he just have a problem only early in the season?

Monday, September 20, 2004

Packers 17, Chicago 14. That could have been the score, but it was Packers 10, Chicago 21. If RB Ahman Green hadn't been stripped of the ball at Chicago's 5 yard line and S Mike Green hadn't ran it back 95 yards for a touchdown, then the Packers would have won. Overall it was a very close game; both teams struggled throwing the ball but each piled up big rushing numbers. The biggest problem was a poor run defense. This game is similar to the loss at Arizona early in 2003; a game that looked like a win on the schedule became a loss. Hopefully this game was just a bump in the road to another NFC North championship, just as in 2003.

Offense: QB Brett Favre did not have a good game. He had a rhythm early in the game which was disrupted by a long interception on a pass attempt to WR Donald Driver. After the first quarter, he never got going for an entire drive, although he had a great second half TD pass to WR Robert Ferguson. Green looked good, except for the above mentioned fumble, although it was created on a great play by LB Brian Urlacher. The offense line played well early, but seemed less effective as the game went on. Usually it works the other way around; the o-line tires out the d-line. The pass protection was solid all game long. Once again C Mike Flanagan was replaced in the 4th quarter; was he ineffective or still trying to get back to 100%?

Defense: Solid pass defense, although the Packers had trouble covering the tight end during the first quarter. Lots of problems with RB Thomas Jones, but the Packers had problems with RB Anthony Thomas vs. Chicago last year too. Maybe the Packers run defense has a let down against Chicago. LB Na'il Diggs had a great 1st quarter but then quieted down. LB Nick Barnett was named NFC defensive player of the week in week 1, so of course he struggled. Jones usually had a big run when he squeeked past the defensive line and Barnett and/or FS Darren Sharper were caught overpursuing. CB Mike McKenzie played some and almost had an interception in his first week back from his holdout, although he did not start. CB Bhawoh Jue followed up a solid week 1 game with two penalties, although his illegal contact penalty on defense was almost a phantom call. NT James Lee, and DT Cleditus Hunt and DT Cullen Jenkins held their ground on run plays, but generated little pass rush. The defensive ends generated little pass rush and had trouble keeping their gaps on running plays. Chicago took advantage on a couple plays by reversing the play when the Packers were overpursuing, but it eventually caught up to them when WR David Terrell fumbled a reverse in the 4th quarter (unfortunately Favre threw an interception a couple plays later).

Overall, it was a very even game but the Packers had more turnovers (plus the huge fumble recovery for a TD against them) and more penalties than Chicago. Sometimes you win the games you should lose (at Carolina in week 1) and lose the games you should win (any game against Chicago). Hopefully the Packers learn from mistakes made against Chicago and win a game they are expected to lose next week in Indianapolis.

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

With the first week of the season done and no word from CB Mike McKenzie, I had finally accepted that McKenzie was serious about sitting out for the entire season, but then Len Pasquarelli on espn.com reports that McKenzie will be back with the team by Wednesday. McKenzie's the best cornerback in the NFC North, but he might be eased back into the lineup. Overall its a good problem to have too many cornerbacks. McKenzie's return means the release of either S James Whitley or CB Jason Horton. Unfortunately McKenzie still wants to be traded which could lead to some clubhouse problems.

NT Grady Jackson has a dislocated knee cap, jsonline.com reported, which is probably as good as can be expected because the injury looked season ending on the replay. Hopefully Jackson can return for the second half of the season, because no one on the roster can replace what Jackson can do for the team.

RB Najeh Davenport injured his hamstring on a kickoff return, he just froze in midstep and fell untouched on his last play in Carolina. Hamstrings can linger and sure enough jsonline.com reported that Davenport has been strugling with hamstring problems all preseason, so this is a problem that won't go away anytime soon. Davenport is the best kick returner on the Packers and won't be easily replaced on special teams, but RB Tony Fisher can back up RB Ahman Green with the offense adequately in Davenport's absence.

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Packers 24, Carolina 14. No turnovers and 38:04 time of possession. The Packers offense got the ball early, often, and they kept it for big chunks of time. Not glamourous, but dominant. Carolina actually outgained the Packers in yardage (300 to 279) but they didn't overtake the Packers in yardage until their last drive.

First Quarter: The Packers were able to run right from the start of the game. The yardage per carry was not impressive, but the Packers controlled the line of scrimmage and usually gave the Packers running back an opening. QB Brett Favre looked off in the first quarter, but no interceptions. If any Packers fans haven't regressed the memory of Favre's stinker 3 interception performance in the first half versus Minnesota last season in week 1, then we can appreciate no interceptions. DT Grady Jackson was injured on the third play on defense, and he could be done for the season with a torn knee. Jackson's loss could be huge (rim shot) because the Packers are already without NT Donnell Washington (out for the year with a foot injury) and DT Kenny Peterson is recovering from a leg injury. This created a lot of playing time for NT James Lee and DT Cullen Jenkins. TE David Martin played a lot in the first half, but steadly was phased out as the game went along. P Bryan Barker was the primary punter for the Packers and he didn't look too good. The Packers offense controlled most of the quarter by running the football and keeping Carolina's offense on the bench. Packers 3, Carolina 0.

Second Quarter: The Packers defensive line was not too effective and the Packers could only generate pressure by blitzing. Carolina had their one good drive this quarter, which dominated most of the quarter. The Packers had some sloppy tackling, two big 15 yard face mask penalties (one on LB Nick Barnett brought Carolina's drive back to life), and the secondary looked confused when it tried to drop back in a zone coverage. The offense answered immediately back, Favre threw his big pass of the night (24 yard sideline pass to WR Javon Walker), and RB Ahman Green ran for his first TD. The Packers started blitzing on nearly every play on the previous drive, with mixed success because Carolina did score a TD, but after the Packers took the lead on the Green's first TD, the blitz really started to bother QB Jake Delhomme. This was also the time at which Carolina stopped running the ball. Carolina's offensive coordinator Dan Henning seemed to get the best of the Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slovik for the first quarter and a half, but Slovik outcoached Henning the rest of the game. Packers 10, Carolina 7.

Third Quarter: Fumble! DE Aaron Kampman fell on a fumbled handoff when Delhomme tried to handoff to FB Brad Hoover right in front of two other Packers who had blitzed. Lee had a great preseason, but he didn't make any plays in place of the injured Jackson (minus Lee had one of the 15 yard facemask penalties in the 2nd quarter). Favre warmed up in the 2nd quarter and found a groove in the 3rd quarter. He actually threw two TD passes on the same drive (one was called back after WR Robert Ferguson pushed off). Carolina had a good drive going, including a 34 yard pass to WR Ricky Proehl when FS Darren Sharper let Proehl get behind him on a zone coverage, but a tipped pass to WR Steve Smith bounced into Barnett's hands. This was the only interception, but CB Michael Hawthorne might have dropped two interceptions in the game. Hawthorne struggled in the preseason, he got beat once early in the 1st quarter, but became more effective as the game went on. Rookie CB Ahmad Carroll played a great game if it had ended in the middle of third quarter. Carroll had one penalty on a punt return in this quarter. Packers 24, Carolina 7.

Fourth quarter: A whole lot of Packer running. 13 run and 5 pass plays for the Packers on offense in the quarter. The big one was a 13 yard pass to Walker that ate up a couple of minutes late in the game. Carroll had another penalty on special teams and then got mixed up on coverage and gave up a 30 yard TD pass to a wide open WR Muhsin Muhammad. Carroll played like a talented rookie; made some plays but made some mistakes. Whipping boy CB Bhawoh Jue played a lot in the dime and had two great pass defenses in the 4th quarter, hopefully a sign of good things to come. SS Mark Roman was hurt early in the game but wasn't out long and played a solid overall game. All the Packers' starting linebackers were very active in the game. C Mike Flanagan sat out part of the 4th quarter, his last play might have been a sack on Favre when DT Kris Jenkins bull rushed Flanagan back into Favre. Hopefully Flanagan isn't hurt and was just tired from playing a lot tonight after missing most of the preseason with a leg injury. Carolina ends the game with an ineffective two minute drill (less than two minutes to go, down by 10, no timeouts, and their first play was a handoff). Packers 24, Carolina 14.

Saturday, September 11, 2004

ESPN.com reported that CB Michael Hawthorne will start at cornerback ahead of CB Ahmad Carroll in Carolina. Carroll looked really good in the last preseason game and he should start ahead of Hawthorne, but starting the first game of your NFL career on the road, on national TV, and against the defending NFC champs is probably not for the best. Hawthorne and Carroll should both expect a lot of passes to be thrown their way, because neither of them is named Al Harris.

Speaking of CB Al Harris, jsonline.com reported that Harris signed a contract extension. This extension makes a lot of sense because Harris is the best cornerback on the Packers roster that has reported for the season, he was a free agent after this season and his departure would have left a big hole in the Packers secondary, and the Packers can put some of the contract burden on this season's salary cap. Harris received $7 million in guaranteed bonuses, which is reasonable/market value for a veteran cornerback of Harris's ability. Despite the good reasons to resign Harris and the reasonable contract expense, this was not a good signing. Harris is 29 years old, he does not have great speed, and it is unlikely Harris will remain productive for the entire length of his 5 year contract. Hopefully Harris remains a productive cornerback into his 30s, he has three or four more quality seasons left in his career, and I am proven wrong about him.

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

More roster moves. Jsonline.com reported that the Packers picked up LB Nick Rogers and TE Sean McHugh, while releasing LB Tyreo Harrison and FB Vonta Leach. It looked possible that Rogers would start at linebacker this season in Minnesota, but Minnesota has drafted a linebacker in the second round in each of the last two drafts. Rogers has started over 20 games in his first two NFL seasons, Packers personnel analyst John Schneider was impressed with Rogers' special teams play last season against the Packers, and he appears to be an upgrade over Harrison. The Packers search for another tight end has now led them to McHugh. Will the Packers keep four tight ends? McHugh is a converted college fullback, but do the Packers need a fourth tight end/third fullback? Maybe the Packers had a good opportunity to see McHugh in Tennessee on Friday and liked what they saw of him. Leach was a surprising release because jsonline.com reported last week how high the Packers were on him.

The Packers made the first moves for their practice squad. Jsonline.com reported that C Scott Wells, QB Scott McBrien, WR Kelvin Kight, S Julius Curry and OT Atlas Herrion were all signed. Kight was a surprise addition over WR Carl Ford or WR Scottie Vines, but the Packers probably like his kick return abilities. Curry is a mild surprise because the Packers only had him in camp for a week. The addition of Herrion over OT Jason Jimenez was unexpected. The only player added to the practice squad from outside of the Packers training camp roster was TE Ben Steele from Minnesota. If Steele can show the Packers some catching ability in practice, he could have a shot at knocking TE David Martin off the roster.

Sunday, September 05, 2004

Roster Moves. Jsonline.com reported on Saturday that the Packers waived OL Joseph Hayes, Atlas Herrion, and Jason Jimenez, RB Walter Williams, WR Wilson Thomas and LB Jermaine Taylor. Williams played fine on Friday, but he did not look better than RB Tony Fisher or RB Najah Davenport for either backup position. Thomas looked promising on Friday, but he was caught up in a numbers game too. Early in the week, it looked liked Jimenez had a backup position secured, but he would have been the 9th offensive lineman, which is too many.

The Packers traded SS Marques Anderson to Oakland for a 5th and a 6th round pick in 2005. Anderson was a big hitter in the secondary, but his coverage skills were lacking. In the end, the Packers chose a strong safety (SS Mark Roman) with better coverage skills. Its too bad that Anderson did not work out after a promising rookie season in 2002, but its good that the Packers got some draft choices in exchange for Anderson instead of releasing him for nothing.

The biggest news was the release of QB Tim Couch. He did not look good in the preseason, but it seemed likely that the Packers would keep him as the 3rd QB so he could learn the offense. Jsonline.com reported a number of other roster moves. It was news that P B.J. Sander was not released. Mike Sherman would hear "I told you so" about Sander all over the league if he gave up on Sander so early, although Sander had a couple of good punts in the 2nd half in Tennessee which probably saved his job. The Packers were high on S Curtis Fuller when they picked him up in before the start of the 2003 season, but he did not show much this preseason. DE Kenny Holmes seemed guaranteed a spot when the Packers signed him last month, but he did not produce any big plays against Tennessee. DE Tyrone Rogers had a good preseason game against New Orleans, but he was caught up in a numbers game. DT Larry Smith was pushed off the roster by the solid preseason of DT James Lee. CB Chris Watson did not have too many opportunities, but he was a longshot after coming back from a lost 2003 season in Detroit. Releasing WR Carl Ford, Kelvin Kight and Scottie Vines was a surprise, because it seemed likely Vines or Ford would remain as the number five wide receiver, but instead the Packers only kept four wide receivers. S Julius Curry did not have much of a chance, only signing with the Packers last week. TE Tony Donald had a great season in NFL Europe, but did not make many plays in the preseason. LB Steve Josue was a surprise release, because he had a strong training camp and looked good on Friday. QB Scott McBrien looked too small to play in the NFL. C Scott Wells was a minor surprise, although he started out strong, he missed several practices due to injury and ended the preseason poorly. DE Chukie Nwokorie had some success in 2003, but he was injured all preseason, so his release was not a surprise.

The Packers made two trades, as reported by jsonline.com. DE R-Kal Truluck has an odd name and was essentially traded for Anderson because the Packers gave up the 5th and the 6th round draft pick in 2005 acquired from Oakland to obtain Truluck from Kansas City. The website for UW-River Falls revealed that Truluck's real name is "R-Kal K-Quan Truluck" which translates to "Ruler of the Lake" in Swahili, but do the Packers really want the backup defensive end behind DE Vonnie Holliday? Wesley Pinkham wrote an article for allsports.com last July and said "It is beyond me why Truluck didn’t get more playing time last year. When this guy was in the game, he made plays, simple as that" and he mentioned that Truluck was second on Kansas City last season with 5 sacks in limited playing time. Truluck is a smaller defensive end (6'4" 260 lbs.) and almost the same size as DE KGB, which makes him an unlikely starter opposite KGB on 1st and 2nd down, although it looks like Truluck has potential and will be rushing the quarterback on 3rd downs opposite KGB, however, the article published by jsonline.com was not nearly as complementary of Truluck as allsports.com. The Packers also traded for OL Brad Bedell, however, the draft pick he was traded for was a conditional 6th round pick in 2006, which means the Packers might end up flying Bedell to Green Bay to see him in person, decide he does not fit the Packers current needs, and then release him. It is most likely that the Packers end up cutting Bedell before the first game of the season.
Packers 7, Tennessee 27. The score was more lopsided than the actual game. The Packers actually looked better than Tennessee except on four big plays: the interception returned by LB Keith Bulluck for a touchdown, the interception by CB Samari Rolle and subsequent TD pass to WR Derrick Mason, and the 73 yard run by RB Chris Brown. In the regular season, the big play can make or break a season, but QB Brett Favre and RB Ahman Green were not given a full (or any) game of opportunities to make up the big plays. Overall, the Packers made few penalties and other mental mistakes, and many backup players were given the opportunity to prove they belong on the roster.

First Half: The Packers offense moved the ball pretty well against a very tough Tennessee defense. Two seasons ago the Packers went down to Tennessee for a regular season game and Green ended up with 10 yards rushing, so rushing for over 100 yards without Green against essentially the same defense was a big improvement. The Packers had success running the ball against the best run defense in 2003. Favre moved the team well down the field, until he threw an interception. On the first interception, Favre's pass was off slightly and Rolle was in a perfect position to jump the route and tip the ball to Bulluck, who ran it back for a touchdown. The second interception was another great play by Rolle. Hopefully the subsequent TD pass by QB Steve McNair to Mason was not a sign of things to come; CB Al Harris blitzed from the corner and SS Mark Roman rotated up to cover Mason, but he was late and missed an open field tackle which allowed Mason to run into the end zone. The Packers ran the same blitz and coverage rotation later in the half and it led to a tipped pass and an incompletion. Sometimes the blitz is an asset and sometimes it kills you. Favre made up one of the touchdowns with a beautiful pass to WR Robert Ferguson on a blown coverage by Tennessee's secondary. Last season, the Packers run defense looked susceptible early in games but then clamped down as the games went on, and the Packers followed that same pattern in the first half of this game. The Packers offensive line looked solid in pass protection during the first half. CB Ahmad Carroll got to start the game, was picked on all half by McNair, but played a great half. Carroll looks noticeable better from the first to the last preseason games and he should be the starting cornerback for the start of the season. P B.J. Sander had a 5 yard punt...

Second half: The offense looked inept without Favre, just as it had all preseason, but QB Craig Nall played in the 4th quarter and probably saved his NFL career. He should have had a long TD bomb to WR Kelvin Kight but Kight dropped the pass, probably could have had some more success with some help from his receivers, and played very well with a lot of confidence. Although Nall threw an interception in the end zone to essentially end the game, the offense looked competant without Favre in the game for the first time all preseason. Unfortunately for WR Scottie Vines, he made a big catch on a pass from Nall but fumbled the ball when he was hit and probably fumbled away his NFL career. Sander probably saved his NFL career with some good punts in the second half. QB Tim Couch did not kill his NFL career with his one poor outing on Friday night, but it is probably on life support. Tennessee had a lot of success running the football against the Packer backups in the second half, which probably lost many players their roster spots. On the other hand, the pass defense excelled in the second half, especially rookie CB Joey Thomas. How CB/S Bhawoh Jue has kept his roster spot is unexplainable. LB Tyreo Harrison played well on special teams and as the backup at middle linebacker, and probably has made the team. DT Kenny Peterson had his knee rolled up on by DT Cullen Jenkins and its likely Peterson is done for the season. Although the pass defense looked good in the second half, the pass rush vanished.

Monday, August 30, 2004

Packers 7, Jacksonville 9. Once again, I missed the game, so I have to read the recaps again. The Packers are lucky that RB Ahman Green did not suffer a major injury on Friday, although it sounds like something that might linger for a couple of weeks. Hopefully Green sits out the last preseason game because he has nothing to prove. Overall, the game resembled the first two preseason games for the Packers: not much offense without QB Brett Favre playing, good defense, and a lot of penalties.

QB Brett Favre. The 2nd Quarter was typical Favre. Two interceptions, the first when Favre tried to zip it into WR Donald Driver and franchise SS Donovan Darius jumped the route, and the other on a fluke bounce off TE Bubba Franks. Although both interceptions led to field goals, the quarter was a net gain when Favre threw a perfect deep pass to WR Robert Ferguson. It was the typical high risk-high reward you expect as a Packer fan while watching Favre play.

Backup quarterbacks. Does anybody really expect the Packers to play well without Favre? QB Craig Nall and QB Scott McBrien did not look good, but that is not really surprising. Hopefully QB Tim Couch continues to heal and learn the offense, and he can be expected to perform well if needed.

Penalties. They do not mean anything, yet. It is hard to tell if it is a problem with so many players on the field who will not remain on the roster for the start of the season or rookie players receiving so much additional playing time.

Injuries. The injuries to Green and LB Na'il Diggs do not sound serious, but this is the danger of the preseason. So far, knock on wood, the Packers have not any signifcant injuries.
CB Michael Hawthorne. Although offenses do not show their regular offense during the preseason, all three opponents the Packers have faced this preseason have shown one thing in common; attack Hawthorne. He does not have the speed to start at cornerback in the NFL, he is likely to be attacked in the passing game by every opponent this season, and he does not have the speed to win every battle with every wide receiver in the NFL. Hopefully CB Mike McKenzie returns and Hawthorne can settle in as the 3rd or 4th cornerback, otherwise Hawthorne will start and be abused by starting wide receivers until the Packers feel CB Ahmad Carroll can start.

Special Teams. It did not read like either P B.J. Sander or P Bryan Barker looked very good. It is a concern and a problem that needs to be resolved and corrected by the start of the season. Jsonline.com had an article that the Packers were reluctantly awarding the starting punt return job to WR Antonio Chatman. Chatman looked ok last season as the punt returner. If Chatman is good enough to win the 4th wide receiver spot on the roster, then he should be given another chance this season at punt returning.

Wide receivers. It looks like WR Scottie Vines and Chatman will be the 4th and 5th wide receivers this season. This can be important for the Packers. Last season, the Packers depth at wide receiver was tested early with injuries to Ferguson and Driver. Some seasons, the Packers 5th wide receiver never saw the playing field, except on special teams. In 2003, the Packers promoted a former 5th wide receiver, Driver, to the starting lineup and he turned in a 1000 yard season. These players might be very important or an afterthought to a great season.

There are many things I would like to address, such as how the offensive and defensive lines are playing, how many of the backups are playing, but those things don't show up well on a game recap. Hopefully I can watch the last preseason game.

The Packers released 15 players on Monday. None of them are a surprise, although it is likely that RB Dahrran Diedrick finds himself back on the practice squad. All the players were undrafted free agents.

Friday, August 27, 2004

Jsonline.com and packersnews.com each had stories about QB Scott McBrien, who has outplayed QB Tim Couch and QB Craig Nall in training camp. McBrien is almost 6'0" tall and weighes 188, which is very small for the NFL. The only QBs playing in the NFL who are of similar physical stature as McBrien are QB Jeff Garcia, QB Ty Detmer, and QB Doug Flutie. Not an elite company, but each one has had some success while Garcia has had a solid NFL and CFL career. What this really says is that quarterbacks of McBrien's height and weight don't play and/or survive in the NFL, as a general rule. While there are plenty of QBs in the NFL of similar height and weight as Couch and Nall, there are no other unproven small QBs in the NFL. Although Detmer played with the Packers, that was before Mike Sherman's time with the team and he has never shown a preference for smaller QBs. It is unlikely that McBrien would beat out Nall and Couch for a roster spot, but he remains a very likely candidate for the practice squad, because it remains unlikely that any other NFL team would give him an active roster spot.

Thursday, August 26, 2004

Jsonline.com posted a "Keep or cut?" column. A few decisions caught my attention.

Quarterback: The Packers will cut QB Craig Nall and QB Scott McBride, although it is likely that one of them would end up on the practice squad. QB Tim Couch's past performance in Cleveland was better than any past performance by Nall or McBride. Pederson will probably remain the number two QB until Couch gets healthy. If Couch's arm injury doesn't linger and Couch can learn the offense, he signed late and did miss the first two minicamps, then Couch could be good enough to start by midseason.

Wide Receiver: WR Carl Ford will lose to WR Scottie Vines for the 5th WR spot, which is a surprise since Ford had a shot as the number 4 WR but has lost camp battles to Vines and WR Antonio Chatman.

Offensive Line: OL Jason Jimenez will make the roster, but he didn't look impressive in the game versus Seattle and he will probably be inactive for the early season games.

Defensive Line: DE Kenny Holmes, DE Larry Smith and DE Corey Williams will knock DE Cullen Jenkins, DE Tyrone Rogers, and DE Chukie Nwokorie off the roster, although this is the toughest decision since of each of these defensive ends have something to offer. Williams is a surprise since he was a low draft choice from a small school, but the Packers have been impressed with him.

Defensive Backs: Keep CB Jason Horton and Bhawoh Jue over SS Marques Anderson. CB Chris Watson seemed a good candidate to make the team when he was signed this summer, but he has apparently didn't show enough this preseason. Anderson has his flaws, but he is the biggest hitter in the secondary. Horton has been burned at times this preseason, during the games and the scrimmage, but defensive coordinator Bob Slovik was said on jsonline.com that Horton has been a real find by the Packers scouting department. The team should cut their losses with Jue, who looked awful last season and in the Seattle preseason game, although he might be the best athlete in the secondary.

Special Teams: The Packers will cut P B.J. Sander. Sander seemed like a bad decision during the April draft, but it is surprising that Sander didn't have any chance during the regular season. This cut seems the most unlikely because Mike Sherman wants to prove others wrong and prove that Sander was worth a high draft choice.

Wednesday, August 25, 2004

Multiple sources reported that the Packers signed DE Kenny Holmes. He came cheap, reportedly for $660,000 with a $25,000 signing bonus, and he could help the Packers in 2004. Last week, it sounded like Holmes was done because he turned 30 and he has a history of knee problems, however, Len Pasquarelli of ESPN.com reported that his latest knee surgery was an arthroscopic procedure, which is common and easily recoved from these days. In his three seasons with the Giants, Holmes averaged 2 sacks every 5 starts, which would lead to 6 or 7 sacks if he starts 16 games and that would have been the 2nd most sacks by a player on the Packers in 2003. In comparison to other free agents, DE Grant Wistrom, 28, who signed with Seattle for a $14 million signing bonus, has averaged 7.5 sacks for every 16 games he has started over the last three seasons. Wistrom has a slight age and production advantage over Holmes, both have injury problems (Wistrom has an injured foot, Holmes has a history of knee problems), and Holmes is substantially cheaper. with the injury to DE Chukie Nwokorie, Holmes could find himself playing 30 snaps per game, averaging 6 or 7 sacks for the season, and become an important contributor in 2004.

Jsonline.com reported a rash of boils in training camp this summer. Mike Sherman said he didn't "think it's a major issue" but it has kept NT James Lee out of the last preseason game and out of daily practices. Lee looked outstanding against Seattle in the first preseason game. With Lee and rookie NT Donnell Washington sidelined, DT Larry Smith not looking good as the backup nose tackle against Seattle, and no one else apparently playing behind NT Grady Jackson, the nose tackle depth has become a concern. The Packers run defense takes a major step back without a quality nose tackle.

Jsonline.com had a story about the Packers increased use of the blitz in 2004. It is irrelevant how much the Packers blitz. The blitz can be very effective and create a big play, and it is just as likely that the blitz can create a big play for the opposing offense if it doesn't work. It really is a matter of performance. The Packers should blitz, because it adds a different look to the defense and can confuse or frustrate the other team's offense, but if the blitz isn't well executed, then the Packers shouldn't blitz. In the end, it doesn't matter what percentage of plays the Packers blitz on. If the Packers out coach and out play their opponents, whether they blitz every play or never, then the Packers will have a great defense.

Tuesday, August 24, 2004

Jsonline.com reported that backup OL Brennan Curtin is done for the season after tearing the ACL and MCL in his right knee. Its a horrible injury, but Curtin was likely to play the same role in 2004 as in 2003. He was likely to be inactive for most games, and would be the third or fourth tackle. This comes after the injury to reserve C Scott Wells, while starting LG Mike Wahle and C Mike Flanagan continue to sit out with leg injuries. Jsonline.com was concerned about the various injuries, but Wahle and Flanagan have said they would play if this was the regular season, while Curtin and Wells are at the end of the bench. The primary backup linemen, OL Steve Morley, OL Grey Ruegamer, and OL Kevin Barry, are playing as it was expected of them, so the top 8 offensive linemen are set. Although it would be better if Wahle and Flanagan were completely healthy, which in Flanagan's case is never going to happen, these players are likely to follow RG Marco Rivera's lead and play through injuries (Rivera has played through a torn MCL in two recent seasons).

Monday, August 23, 2004

Oops. Packersnews.com reported that the Packers signed 40 year old P Bryan Barker. Barker has 15 seasons of experience in the NFL and the Packers are looking to see if they made a mistake drafting P B.J. Sander in the 3rd round (Yep). Ironically, Barker lost his punting job in Jacksonville after the 2000 season to P Chris Hanson, who the Packers signed after P Josh Bidwell was diagnosed with cancer in 1999, but Hanson was soon released by the Packers in favor of P Louie Aguiar. Hanson made the Pro Bowl after the 2002 season, but missed most of the 2003 season with an injury. Too bad the Packers hadn't kept Hanson back in 1999.

On the other hand, it is obvious that Sander isn't really as bad as he played in the first two preseason games. Sander is either pressing too hard or he's hurt. Len Pasquarelli on espn.com pointed out that Sander averaged in the two preseason games 36 Gross/31 Net while last season at Ohio State he averaged 42.2 Gross/39.8 Net. That is a big difference. Hopefully Sander proves he is good enough to kick in the NFL in the last two preseason games.
Preseason: Packers 19, New Orleans 14. I did not watch the game, so I don't have much to say. This is essentially a review from reading the game recap on jsonline.com and ESPN highlights.

First; the Packers are playing like a team in the preseason. Sloppy offensive line blocking and multiple defensive offsides, along with miscommunication between new and young players which should be expected by all. Hopefully the sloppy play is out of their system by week 1, unlike last season when the Packers played a poor first half and lost to Minnesota at Lambeau.

Second; the secondary is a work in process. This was expected, especially since the Packers have two rookie cornerbacks, CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas, who still have a lot to learn. It is unlikely that they will contribute much in their first seasons, although they might contribute later in the season in the dime and nickel packages. SS Mark Roman appears to be playing the same role as SS Antuan Edwards played last season; a safety with above average cover skills but not a big hitter, to complement SS Marques Anderson's big hitting but lesser coverage skills. It is unclear who can win the starting battle between them, because they are different players who bring different skills to the position. It will probably end up that the two rotate depending on the defensive scheme and opponent all season long. CB Michael Hawthorne is a good third cornerback, but when he has to start, he is beaten by starting wide receivers like WR Darrell Jackson of Seattle and WR Joe Horn of New Orleans. This is not a surprise; Hawthorne drew faint interest as a free agent this spring due to his lack of speed and it is why the Packers have been unwilling to trade CB Mike McKenzie. Jsonline.com had some McKenzie-is-preparing-to-report speculation, but it was all unconfirmed. Hawthorne is good as the third or fourth cornerback going against the slower third or fourth wide receivers, but he will be exposed all season long as a starter. The big 70 yard touchdown pass by New Orleans in the 4th quarter was not a big disappointment. Thomas, who still has a lot to learn, was beaten, and safety Kevin Curtis, who was just signed last week, missed the play in the open field. It was a lot to ask of them to play well together so soon with the Packers when they are not expected to be contributing in the starting secondary this season. The entire secondary is much better when ballhawking FS Darren Sharper is on the field.

Before the game, Chicago traded starting WR Marty Booker for Miami DE Adewale Ogunleye, who led the AFC last season with 15 sacks. Ogunleye fills a big need for Chicago, a proven pass rusher to ignite a morbid pass rush. The knock on Oguleye is that he is a product of a good team, and he was made better by rushing the QB opposite Pro Bowl DE Jason Taylor. Ogunleye had double digit sacks in 2002 and 2003, so he is not a fluke. This trade is a major improvement for an average defense's weakest attribute. Unfortunately, this trade makes a weak offense even weaker. Chicago is trying to ease QB Rex Grossman into starting in the NFL, but he is playing with two average running backs (RB Thomas Jones and RB Anthony Thomas), a rebuilt offensive line, and now he is playing without the two leading receivers from 2003 (WR Booker and WR Dez White). Booker and White did not play very well in 2003, but their likely replacements, WR David Terrell and WR Justin Gage, are not well regarded and Terrell was almost released this spring. At least Booker would deserve attention in coverage, but now opposing defenses can really attack Grossman and force him to make plays. Ogunleye is still a superior individual player to Booker, but this trade could really hurt Grossman plus Miami received a little kicker for the deal (a 2005 3rd round draft pick) that could make this trade a bad trade for Chicago. Overall, the trade is a mixed bag of bad and good, and it is unclear that it has improved Chicago.

Friday, August 20, 2004

The Packers signed safety Kevin Curtis. Curtis was drafted by San Francisco in 2002 in the 4th round and thehuddlereport.com rated him as the 85th best player in the 2002 draft so he was a value pick (although what does San Francisco know because they drafted bust K Jeff Chandler in the same round). Unfortunately he has never played in the regular season because he had two seperate knee injuries in each of the past two preseasons, as packers.theinsiders.com reported. His signing does not sound like any risk at all, but it is unlikely he contribute or make the team at this point. On the other hand, Curtis had been available since he reached an injury settlement with San Francisco back in August 2003 according to packers.theinsiders.com. why sign him right now? Is he finally healthy or is this just a desperate move to bring in more bodies into a backup secondary that underperformed in the first preseason game?

There was no previous mention about the Packers claim of WR Kelvin Kight off waivers from St. Louis last week, because there is little online about Kight. He was an undrafted free agent signed by St. Louis in April and played college ball last season at Florida, but that's about it. He was standing on the sidelines for most of the preseason game, and he might have had one pass attempt thrown at him. Unless injuries attack the wide receivers or Kight is a demon on special teams, especially as a punt or kick returner, he has little chance of staying with the team, although maybe he can stick on the practice squad.
What is going through the mind of CB Mike McKenzie? Jsonline.com reported that New Orleans is still interested in McKenzie but apparently will not trade a 1st round pick for him. Nonetheless, the recent story made me reexamine why McKenzie will not report to the Packers.

Enough has been reported about McKenzie to give the impression that he is someone who frustrates other people. He averages about one agent per season, and his last agent quit once McKenzie's current disagreement with the Packers was made public. On the other hand, not one Packer has said anything negative about McKenzie, other than that he should honor his contract. FS Darren Sharper appears to be the closest friend McKenzie has on the team, although Sharper appears to be an outgoing man who makes friends with almost everyone on the team. Sharper has been willing to talk to the media about McKenzie, but all he can say is that this disagreement is not about money.

It is reasonable to assume that their disagreement is about money. McKenzie's current contract is less than he would be paid if he had been a free agent this past offseason. If this is a holdout for more money, then it is unlikely that the Packers will rework the contract (other than to guaranty some money that is currently unguaranteed) and McKenzie is likely to report once he starts missing game checks. It is easy to assume that this is a contract disagreement, because most holdouts are about money, unfortunately, this disagreement seems to be about something other than money. Assuming money is not the issue, as McKenzie has told people (including Sharper), then only three other issues have been suggested.

The first possibility is that he is engaged in a battle of pride and ego with Mike Sherman. Sherman had problems effectively communicating with some players in the past, such as the time last offseason when he created a misunderstanding that led to LB Na'il Diggs signing an offer sheet with Detroit, before the Packers matched it and Sherman worked it out with Diggs. Would someone risk their career because of pride and ego? It has happened many times in many different situations outside the NFL, but it would seem ridiculous to people who are not personally involved in such a dispute. This possibility seems the least likely scenario, because Sherman has a history of working out misunderstandings with his players and McKenzie has never showed much ego or been very outspoken in the press.

The second possibility is that he was upset with the 4th and 26 meltdown in the Philadelphia playoff game and how the season ended. It wasn't the first blown coverage in NFL history and these mistakes are correctable through better practice and coaching, unless this was somehow the final straw for McKenzie in a pattern of poor play and coaching. Did McKenzie tell the team "I told you so" regarding the bad defensive scheme and then in the offseason the Packers failed to acknowledge that he was correct?

The third possibility is that he was upset with the defensive coaching changes. It has been mentioned that McKenzie wanted assistant secondary coach Lionel Washington promoted to either defensive coordinator or secondary coach, although McKenzie has not made any such demand public himself. Maybe he was disappointed in the firing of Ed Donatell? Maybe he thinks former secondary coach and new defensive coordinator Bob Slovak was responsible for the 4th and 26 blunder, and the fact that he got promoted despite his blunder is ridiculous. Maybe he thinks poorly of new secondary coach Kurt Schottenheimer, who he probably knows to some extent because Schottenheimer coached Detroit last season.

The third possibility seems the most likely situation at this point. If McKenzie thinks Slovak is part of the problem, Schottenheimer is not likely to help situation, and the Packers seemed headed in the wrong direction, then it is reasonably for someone to want to leave and start over with a new team. Such a situation would also make the problem impossible to correct. No amount of talking and listening can change the fact that the wrong men are in charge of the defense. This is not an attack on Slovak or Schottenheimer, because there is no way to know at this point whether they will coach the defense better than the Packers were coached in 2003 and McKenzie could be completely wrong in his assessment of both men, if McKenzie does in fact think they are the problem.

Another question is why has McKenzie drawn so little interest from teams around the NFL. Why isn't there a bidding war for him in trade? He's proven he can play at a high level, he's in his prime, and he's cheap. None of the cornerbacks drafted this past season are guaranteed to ever play as well as McKenzie has played in the past, and teams are just as likely to draft a bust with their first round pick as draft a talented contributor. If a situation like this occured in MLB, McKenzie would be traded within a week (see the meltdown between the Cleveland Indians and CF Milton Bradley for a comparable situation - and it wasn't just a salary dump because Cleveland acquired a legitimate and talented prospect in return for Bradley). Maybe it is because that there are so few trades in the NFL, few teams would ever consider trading for an established player under any circumstances.

This is all just speculation, because all the parties involved are keeping the whole story underwraps, which is probably the professional way to handle the situation. The Packers can have a good secondary in 2004 without McKenzie, but the secondary is probably better with McKenzie than without him. This situation cannot be compared with any player/coach dispute in recent history; it is not about money, contract, or playing time. It will be interesting to hear McKenzie's side of the story some day. Hopefully he and the Packers come to an understanding and McKenzie will play for the Packers in 2004.

Thursday, August 19, 2004

It is no help to lose backup WR Shockmain Davis to a broken leg, as jsonline.com reported happened to Davis during practice. Davis actually has some NFL experience, and none of the wide receivers projected behind WR Donald Driver, WR Robert Ferguson, or WR Javon Walker have more than one year of NFL experience.

Theinsiders.com reported that P Nathan Chapman will get a chance this weekend. Why not? He is a longshot in the NFL, a 29 year old rookie with previous experience in Australian rules football, but rookie P B.J. Sander was dismal in the first preseason game. Chapman would have to resemble fellow Australian NFL punter P Darren Bennett to have any chance of playing in the regular season.

Last season, the Packers signed free agent FB Nick Luchey, and it appeared that FB William Henderson's days with the Packers were numbered. The Packers wouldn't pay for two starting fullbacks in the modern NFL which devalues the fullback position. Instead, Henderson kept his starting job last season, appears in no danger of losing it this season, and Luchey seems likely to remain on the roster as the backup fullback and special teams player. It is just surprising how this situation turned out.

Wednesday, August 18, 2004

Jsonline.com reported that the Packers cut LB Marcus Wilkins. Wilkins showed good speed off the corner on Monday night, but the Packers apparently did not like what they saw when he attempted to drop back in coverage. It is not surprising that Wilkins was cut as a linebacker, the Packers have a number of backup linebackers that are playing well in training camp, but Wilkins was one of the few situational pass rusher candidates in training camp.

Jsonline.com reported that the Packers are kicking the tires of free agent defensive ends Kenny Holmes and Chad Bratzke. Both players are over 30 and had major injuries in recent seasons. Holmes seems more likely at this point, because he visited the Packers and appears likely to take less than money than Bratzke. Holmes has played very well at times in his career while at other times seemed ineffective, unfortunately, he is coming off November knee surgery. Both players appear to have more reputation than ability at this point in their careers. Overall, the Packers do not appear satisfied with their depth at defensive end, especially with the severe hamstring injury to DE Chukie Nwokorie. The article did mention that DE Cullen Jenkins had some success against Seattle, but defensive ends Tyrone Rogers and Corey Williams didn't make much of an impression in the 2nd half. After the first preseason game, the only backup defensive lineman that played well were Jenkins, DT Kenny Peterson, and NT James Lee.

Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Preseason: Packers 3, Seattle 21. "Wretched. Just plain wretched" were the words used by Bob McGinn to open his column about the first preseason game. McGinn was primarily commenting on the awful performances by QB Tim Couch and P B.J. Sander. Overall, the Packers had a poor performance, but the first team offense played well, there were no turnovers, some players had outstanding individual performances, and the mental mistakes and penalties were as good as could be expected for the first preseason game.

First Quarter: The first team offense played well, although they only scored 3 points on 2 drives. QB Brett Favre threw 5 completions to 5 different receivers, the big one a 19 yard pass to RB Tony Fisher. Fisher was wide open because the Seattle cornerback to that side of the field blitzed late. Favre's two incompletions were an incomplete-almost touchdown to WR Donald Driver and an incompletion in the end zone to backup TE David Martin. On the pass to Martin, Seattle had starting CB Ken Lucas cover him, which should tell Favre (again) that the entire NFL knows he likes to throw deep to his tight end and that is hasn't worked since 1996. RB Ahman Green ran well considering C Mike Flanagan and LG Mike Wahle sat out. TE Bubba Franks had a great game; catching one pass and opening a giant running lane on a run off left tackle for Green.

The starting defense played flat, like it did during most 1st quarters last season. The Packers run defense played well (although ESPN's Paul McGuire thought otherwise) and RB Shawn Alexander only had 10 yards on 5 carries. Seattle tried to run at DE KGB but he played great run defense. On 3rd down, the Packers called on DE Cullen Jenkins (who?) to rush from right defensive end opposite KGB. Jenkins didn't have much success in the 1st quarter, but he showed why he had this opportunity in the 4th quarter. The Packers couldn't stop Seattle on 3rd down; on one play, a late cornerback blitz left WR Bobby Ingram wide open for the conversion, and on another play, a ineffective linebacker blitz left the middle open and WR Darrell Jackson blew by CB Michael Hawthorne for the reception. Seattle picked on Hawthorne, which should continue to happen in the regular season, unless CB Mike McKenzie returns. Seattle had some success throwing to TE Jerramy Stevens, but LB Na'il Diggs was not playing (is he injured?) who ordinarly would be responsible for the tight end. The blitzes were not hidden or very effective (I counted 2 out of 5 blitzes created QB pressure), but in the preseason, the Packers wouldn't show off their real blitz packages. The TD run by Seattle FB Mack Strong had to be a missed assignment (NT Grady Jackson jumped out of the way and it looked like LB Torrance Marshall didn't jump into the Jackson's spot fast enough).

Second Quarter: The wheels come off. CB Ahmad Carroll was returning kicks instead of RB Najeh Davenport. Why? Hopefully Davenport is still number 1 on kickoffs and Carroll is number 2, however Carroll needs the practice more than Davenport. The second unit offense, with who's that at left and right tackle (LT Atlas Herrion and RT Jason Jimenez), was awful. No running lanes for Davenport and weak pass protection. I would expect that OL Steve Morley is the real backup left tackle, OL Kevin Barry is the real backup right tackle, but they both played at guard tonight because they are the backups at those positions too and they need more practice at guard. QB Tim Couch was awful. Wretched. The rest of the second team offense didn't help him, but Couch was not following through with his passes, his accuracy was off, and that hitch in his delivery can't be helping him. Couch might be injured, but who knows. Let's see if he improves during the preseason. QB Seneca Wallace has little chance of success in the NFL (at best he will have QB Jeff Blake's career) but the Packers second team defense made him look respectable (and made ESPN's anchors gush about Wallace). Backup NT Larry Smith did not hold the line well and gave RB Maurice Morris some cutback opportunities, plus the 3rd quarter gave Smith reason to worry about his backup nose tackle spot and potentially his spot on the roster. Smith played well with limited opportunities in 2003, but he has a roster battle on his hands. CB Bhawon Jue looked awful Monday night, he had an awful (and wretched) 2003 season, and he missed at least two assignments and tackles in the 2nd quarter. Carroll got a big pass interference call, WR Alex Bannister actually started the grabing, but Carroll grabed last and drew the penalty. All the backups played in the secondary and they looked confused, for example when they forgot to cover WR Jerheme Urban for a wide open TD pass.

Third and Fourth Quarter: I decided to lump the two quarters together, because in both quarters the Packers second (third/fourth) team offense wasn't productive in any way (couldn't pass, couldn't run), and the Packers second (third/fourth) team defense played well but spent too much time on the field and got tired. The Packers offense gave Sander plenty of opportunity to punt and he looked awful. Wretched. He didn't kick a single punt longer than 40 yards, and only a couple of his 10 punts had good hang time. He is supposed to be a quality directional kicker, but none of his kicks were anywhere near the end zone (he was kicking from Packer territory) so it was hard to tell. Backups WR Carl Ford, WR Scotty Vines, and TE Tony Donald had plenty of playing time, but the offense was struggling so bad, it was hard to tell if any of them played well. QB Doug Pederson had a lot of opportunities, but he wasn't effective. The first play of the second half was a run that was stuffed when third string NT James Lee got into Seattle's backfield. It was like starting nose tackle Jackson was still in the game. Depth at nose tackle was a concern with the injury to rookie DT Donnell Washington, but Lee just turned the position into a strength. Lee repeatedly beat Seattle's offensive line into the backfield and had an effect on every run play Seattle ran in the 2nd half. The Packers secondary played much better in this quarter, which is not surprising since they had never played together before this game. LB Steve Josue had a big hit, but he still has a roster battle on his hands (the Packers have good depth at linebacker this season). LB Marcus Wilkens played well on the outside, and he looks recovered from his 2003 injuries. Jenkins, the defensive end who is the brother of Pro Bowl DT Kris Jenkins from Carolina, had a fantastic spin move in the 4th quarter and got a sack. Jenkins does not have a guaranteed contract, so he slipped through the cracks, and I hadn't noticed him yet this preseason. He looked good in the 4th quarter, played very well in NFL Europe this spring, played with the first team defense in the 1st quarter, and it looks like he will be in the Packers' defensive line rotation this season.

Overall, the Packers offense looked awful without Favre in the game, which should come as a surprise to no one. The Packers defensive line and linebackers played well, but the secondary is a work in progress, which is what should be expected of it at this point. The special teams didn't have any big kick returns, K Ryan Longwell looked as good as ever (accurate but without much strength), and Sander looked awful (which is disappointing but not unexpected because of his poor reviews so far in minicamps and training camp). The disappointments were not surprising and some players were much better than expected. It was a good start to the preseason, although it would be even better to actually win the game.

Monday, August 16, 2004

C Mike Flanagan thinks his current injuries, which have kept him out for most of training camp, were caused by the major leg injury he suffered in his 1996 rookie season, according to jsonline.com. Flanagan said "you start getting old, you start playing with stuff. It changed my gait, the way I ran, everything. So then I compensated with this leg. It has been years and years of playing." Although he expects to play through the aggrevation caused by this old injury and he is an excellent center who is clearly an asset to the team, you wonder if a friend or family member shouldn't intervene with Flanagan and ask him if he wants to retire now so he can walk when he is 50 years old.

Jsonline.com has had multiple articles in the last week about the quality play by backup linebackers Maurice Jones, Torrance Marshall, and now Paris Lenon. Its unlikely any of them will start, unless an injury happens to either linebackers Nick Barnett, Na'il Diggs, or Hannibal Navies. Overall its good to read that this group of linebackers appear to be talented and deep, because coming into last season, the linebackers were unproven and a concern.

Jsonline.com had some injuries to report coming into the preseason opener Monday night. Rookie CB Joey Thomas will sit out with a bum knee, but its not a long term concern. WR Robert Ferguson hyperextended a knee on a run play when he planted wrong. Ferguson didn't think much of the injury, but it sounded like the type of play that have caused some serious knee injuries, so its good to read that he isn't hurt for the long term.

It is anyone's guess who will play at quarterback tonight after QB Brett Favre takes a seat. Jsonline.com reported that QB Tim Couch still hasn't thrown much over the weekend with a "tired arm" injury. QB Craig Nall has a bad hamstring and he has sat out all training camp. QB Doug Pederson should get some playing time, but if Couch and Nall sit out, I have never seen a preseason game where Pederson has played 3+ quarters.

Thursday, August 12, 2004

Jsonline.com's reporters should start reading each other's articles. On August 8th, Bob McGinn reported that "Camp has been going for a week and [RT Kevin] Barry is doing fine, but there appears to be no competition. Now 22 months removed from surgery, [RT Mark] Tauscher is getting back to his pre-injury level of performance and seems entrenched in the starting job that he assumed from Earl Dotson in Week 3 of 2000." However, on August 11th, Rob Reischel titled an article "Barry makes bid as a starter" and wrote that Tauscher "might have a fight on his hands to maintain his starting job. Third-year pro Kevin Barry continues to improve...". So which is it jsonline.com? Starting right tackle Tauscher or starting right tackle Barry? Tauscher started at right tackle in last Friday's scrimmage, while Barry played at right guard with the second unit, so right now it appears to be starting right tackle Tauscher.

Jsonline.com reported, again, that QB Tim Couch has so far sucked. Well they didn't write suck ("mediocre"), but that is just a diplomatic choice of words. Once again, QB Doug Pederson who should have never had a career as a quarterback in the NFL in the first place, who resigned with the Packers this offseason for a little insurance, who was all set to start his new career as a NFL coach (probably as a QB coach with another team, or with the Packers if current QB coach Darrell Bevell wants to move on), is the second best quarterback so far in training camp behind QB Brett Favre. Its likely the Packers will give Couch at least two preseason games to prove himself with the first unit, but so far it looks like Couch will be lucky to make the roster.

Jsonline.com reported that the Packers resigned salary gap guru (officially VP of Player Finance) Andrew Brandt this week. He was signed through the end of this season, but with the unexpected loss of Mark Hatley, the Packers front office couldn't be hurt by some stability. Brandt has done a good job of keeping the Packers out of salary cap jail since 1999, while working around some unexpected retirements (WR Robert Brooks, TE Mark Chimura, S LeRoy Butler) that could have forced some hard roster decisions. He has not appeared to defer many contracts into the future that could restrict the Packers in the future, but a sudden retirement by either FS Darren Sharper or Favre could be a possible salary cap disaster next season, if the Packers want to resign all their expected free agents next offseason. The Packers never have a lot of salary cap room (unlike Philadelphia) but they have never been in a position where they have had to let quality players go because of their poor salary cap management (unlike Tennessee). Brandt and Mike Sherman seem to work well together, so its good to read that Brandt will continue working with the Packers into the future.

Wednesday, August 11, 2004

Jsonline.com reported that rookie DT Donnell Washington suffered "arch damage" and that Washington said "they don't think it's surgical." This sounds like something that will heal on its own time given two months, but that would be about week 4. Washington was likely to see a lot of playing time this season, because he is the only obvious nose tackle to backup DT Grady Jackson. DT James Lee has the size to play nose tackle, but Lee has to prove he deserves to be on the roster first. Depth on the defensive line is very important in the NFL, the Packers rotate multiple defensive lineman in and out depending on the down and distance, so any injury that might hurt that depth is a concern.

Last week the Packers waived LB Armegis Spearman. Spearman was signed as a restricted free agent by the Packers in 2003, but Cincinnati matched the offer, however, Cincinnati proceeded to release Spearman after the 2003 season and the Packers signed Spearman this April. Spearman would have had the first shot at the middle linebacker position in 2003, and if Cincinnati had not matched the offer, the Packers might not have drafted LB Nick Barnett. Based on Spearman's quick departures from two teams since he signed as a free agent in 2003, Spearman has fallen far out of favor with NFL coaches and he would have not been a good choice as the Packers starting middle linebacker. Sometimes its better when your first choice (Spearman) doesn't work out, and your second choice (Barnett) turns out to be the better decision after all.

Monday, August 09, 2004

The first week of training camp has come and gone, ending with the Friday night scrimmage in Lambeau Field. Jsonline.com had several good articles reporting all of the activity.

C Scott Wells already has secured a roster spot. Wells was drafted in the 7th round and seemed like a long shot, but I thought he would make the roster all long because the Packers are somewhat thin on the interior of the offensive line. T Kevin Barry was expected to challenge RT Mark Tauscher, but jsonline.com reported that Tauscher has already won the position battle and now Barry is getting some playing time at guard. OL Steve Morley was a free agent from the CFL, he played tackle in the CFL but he too was reportedly taking reps at a guard position. Wells, Morley, and Barry should be the primary offensive line backups this season.

Surprisingly, WR Antonio Chatman appears to be the number 4 wide receiver, jsonline.com reported. The roster is thin at wide receiver behind top 3 WR Donald Driver, WR Robert Ferguson, and WR Javon Walker. Chatman did not look great during the brief time he played in 2003, instead he received most of his touches on punt returns and he remains the punt returner for the 2004 season. Last season, WR Antonio Freeman only had 1 or 2 catches per game as the 4th WR, so its not a substantial position, unless Driver, Ferguson, or Walker are injured. Behind Chatman is WR Carl Ford, who spent all 2003 on the IL, and practice squad WR Scottie Vines. Ford had a strong training camp in 2003, and I expected he would make the roster in 2004, but Vines has played well while still rehabbing from a knee injury, and Vines might kick Ford off the roster, jsonline.com reported.

QB Brett Favre abused the 2nd (3rd) string cornerbacks during the Friday scrimmage, jsonline.com reported. He abused CB Jason Horton, who I had forgotten about until the Friday scrimmage (he was signed in January along with a number of other NFL Europe candidates and I hadn't consider him likely to make it into training camp), and CB Chris Watson, who is coming back from injuries that wiped out his 2003 season while he was playing for Detroit. The injuries to starting CB Michael Hawthorne and rookie CB Joey Thomas made the cornerback depth look even thinner than expected. CB Chris Johnson showed some promise in 2003 in limited action, but he too is out with an injury, although his injury is more serious and he was placed on the IL. Espn.com reported that CB Mike McKenzie still has no intention of playing for the Packers again, but we shall see. The cornerback position should remain questionable at first, but as the season rolls on and rookie cornerbacks Ahmad Carroll and Thomas are worked into the nickel and dime packages, it should continue to improve.

LB Na'il Diggs and LB Nick Barnett were given blitz opportunities during the scrimmage, jsonline.com reported, that they didn't have in 2003. Diggs was resigned last offseason with the intention of giving him more pass rush opportunities, but it never materialized. Barnett had some opportunities in 2003, but he was injured midseason and he didn't seem to blitz much after he came back from it. Only DE KGB and DT Cletidus Hunt are reliable pass rushers on the defensive line, so if the Packers want to improve its pass rush, it will have to look to the linebackers for help.

P B.J. Sander uncorked two poor punts during the scrimmage, jsonline.com reported, while free agent P Nathan Chapman had one good 53 yard punt. Chapman isn't on the roster, so when the Packers released P Travis Dorsch last month, I thought Chapman had been released previously. It is good that the Packers have an extra punter in camp in case Sander falls apart, and Sander isn't off to a good start.

Thursday, August 05, 2004

Jsonline.com had two stories on the other candidates to backup QB Brett Favre; QB Craig Nall and QB Scott McBride, one day after having a piece on backup QB Tim Couch.

Nall has an injured hamstring and will not start practicing until next week. Nall held off QB Akili Smith in training camp last season, because Smith was too inconsistant, however, Jsonline.com reports that Nall has the same problem as Smith (consistency), and Nall will have a difficult time making the team. It is surprising to read that Nall has not improved much since a promising season with NFL Europe in 2003.

McBride has started off training camp strong, which is not a surprise to his college coach, Maryland's Ralph Friedgen, who thought the Packers got a steal in signing McBride as an undrafted rookie free agent last April. Jsonline.com reported that McBride is throwing well and making good decisions, which is a contrast to what had been reported about Nall and Couch, however jsonline.com was quick to report that McBride is small for NFL QB standards (6'0", 188 lbs.). Both Couch and Nall are over 6' and 200 lbs. McBride did a good job in selecting the Packers as his first NFL team, because he is likely to see a lot of playing time in training camp and preseason while Favre is often sitting out. It will be interesting to see if the Packers give McBride a quarter or more audition in an early preseason game to see if he can make the roster.

I did not mention QB Doug Pederson, who I suspect remains in camp as a tutor for Couch, Nall and McBride, when he is not hanging out with Favre. Pederson does not need to show the coaches what he can do, although I am sure he is practicing in order to stay sharp in case he makes the final roster. The only way Pederson makes the roster is a collapse by Nall and McBride, along with a struggling Couch. If the final roster had to be set today, I would imagine the Packers would release Nall and McBride. It is likely Pederson will remain in camp for a while, and then end up accepting a position to remain with the Packers' coaches or front office for the 2004 season.

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Jsonline.com had an article about QB Tim Couch and compared his arm strength to QB Doug Pederson. Ouch. How did this guy get picked first overall in 1999? The article suggested Couch's lack of arm strength in camp might be due to a lack of confidence while he learns the Packers offense. The article also reported that Couch has never been asked to run a naked (without blockers) bootleg to his left, something QB Brett Favre has excelled at for many seasons. It sounds like we should expect QB Craig Nall to outperform Couch this preseason and force the Packers to name Nall as the backup and Couch at third string. If Couch is named the third string QB, I would expect Couch to ask for his release.

Monday, August 02, 2004

It was good to read that CB Ahmad Carroll was signed right at the start of camp. Carroll needs as much time in camp as possible, if CB Mike McKenzie is serious about holding out all season.

P Travis Dorsch was released last week. It is a little surprising to see Dorsch cut loose so soon, but he was a long shot to beat out 3rd round pick P B.J. Sander. Dorsch outperformed Sander in the April mini-camp, but Sander's performance since April must have convinced the Packers that Dorsch wasn't necessary. Keeping Dorsch throughout training camp wouldn't have been a bad idea, because recent kickers that the Packers have drafted haven't been able to play in their first seasons. P Josh Bidwell was diagnosed with cancer in his first season, and K Brett Conway was injured in training camp and replaced by unsigned free agent K Ryan Longwell. Hopefully all goes well for Sander in training camp and the Packers aren't left scrambling for a new punter at the end of the preseason.

Jsonline.com had a story on the injuries suffered by C Mike Flanagan and OG Mike Wahle. Flanagan has tendinitis in his knee, and it sounds like a lingering injury that could stay with him all season. Wahle's injury, he was injured performing in a Strongman workout regimen, sounded more serious. Wahle had trouble walking right after the injury in early July, but now it sounds like he is almost over the injury. This falls under into the "ignorance is bliss" category, because if Wahle's injury was reported when it occured, it would have been a substantial concern for the Packers offensive line.

Thursday, July 29, 2004

Jsonline.com had a bunch of Packers stories posted today.

The headline "McKenzie is unhappy camper" was stating the obvious, but it is not surprising that DB Mike McKenzie is aggressively training for the start of the season, because he has to give another team a reason to overpay for his rights in a trade.

Jsonline.com confirmed that the Packers offensive line is one of the best in the NFL.

The article on players who remain in Green Bay over the offseason had a great description of RB Najeh Davenport's inability to shovel his driveway.

More on Davenport: jsonline.com speculated that Davenport would be an excellent fit in Miami. In no way should the Packers trade Davenport now. He should be the number one kickoff return man in 2004 and he is an asset in the running game. He is only a restricted free agent after 2004 and he might become a number one running back if the Packers have concerns with resigning RB Ahman Green after 2005. If Davenport has a great 2004 season, it would not be surprising for the Packers to offer Davenport the top qualifying offer in the offseason and trade him for draft choices before next April, when they can draft another running back and/or kickoff returner.

Wednesday, July 28, 2004

The sudden death of VP of football operations Mark Hatley is a huge loss for the Packers. I knew next to nothing of Mark Hatley personally, go read Pat Kirwan's column on nfl.com for some personal background on Mark Hatley, so I will talk about what he did for the Packers.

Jsonline.com described Hatley as the "second in command" of personnel decisions behind Mike Sherman. Although Sherman is technically the GM and Coach, I believe Sherman is the head coach first and he has the final decision on personnel, but Hatley did much of the routine travel and day-to-day grunt work of a GM, because Sherman worked day-to-day as the head coach. I became familar with Hatley while he was in charge of player personnel for Chicago from 1997 to 2001. Hatley might always be remembered in Chicago for his bad decisions to draft RB Curtis Enis and QB Cade McNown in the first rounds, but Hatley did a good job of rebuilding Chicago from stratch after Chicago bottomed out in the mid-1990s post Dave Wannstedt. He drafted Chicago icon LB Brian Urlacher and assembled the great (and lucky) 13-3 Chicago team of 2001. It appears that Chicago improved every offseason under Hatley, and you can't yet say that about current GM Jerry Angelo. All the top players in Chicago over the last 3 seasons (LB Brian Urlacher, S Mike Brown, RB Anthony Thomas, C Olin Kreutz, WR Marty Booker) were drafted and signed during Hatley's tenure.

With the Packers, Hatley contributed to the draft classes of 2002-2004. The 2002 draft class netted star WR Javon Walker along with current Packers DB Marques Anderson, RB Najeh Davenport, and DE Aaron Kampman who are all likely to contribute significantly in 2004 (hopefully QB Brett Favre stays healthy and QB Craig Nall remains firmly on the bench). The 2003 draft class hasn't turned out as well, but it did net star LB Nick Barnett along with possible contributors DT Kenny Peterson and DT James Lee. Overall, the Packers roster has improved since Hatley was hired in 2001, and Hatley deserves credit for it as much as anyone. Hatley's death is a huge loss for the Packers.

Monday, July 26, 2004

One week to go before training camp opens. How's Drew Rosenhaus doing on trading his client, DB Mike McKenzie? I expect McKenzie will report to training camp a week or two before the start of the season, because he won't give up his money or pay back his prorated signing bonus to the Packers, and Rosenhaus won't be able to find a team willing to offer a useful current NFL player or a future number 1 draft pick for McKenzie.

The Packers signed former Cleveland DE Tyrone Rogers to a minimum contract. Cleveland couldn't come to terms with their free agent Rogers, the Packers didn't want DE Jamal Reynolds, so it ends up as a pseudo-trade of two defensive ends. Rogers just turned 30 so he probably won't be better with the Packers than he was with Cleveland. Rogers appears to have some pass rush ability; in limited playing time in 2003 he recorded 1 sack and 2 tackles for a loss, and in limited playing time in 2002 he recorded 3 sacks and 4.5 tackles for a loss, which out performed former top picks DE Courtney Brown and DT Gerard Warren that season. It would appear that Warren has as much ability to get into the backfield and make a play as DE Chukie Nwokorie, and he has better stats than starting DE Aaron Kampman. Rogers is a good size to play defensive end at 6'5" and 280 lbs. The Packers have a lot of defensive tackles on the roster but only 4 defensive ends, including Rogers. If Rogers has a good training camp and the Packers decide they need more depth at defensive end then at defensive tackle, its possible Rogers could take away a roster spot from someone like DT Larry Smith, DT Kenny Peterson, or rookie DT Corey Williams.

Jsonline.com had an article about RB Najeh Davenport opening training camp as the primary kick returner. Everything that special teams coach John Bonamego said in the article is true; "He's a big, powerful bull with speed." Last season, Davenport looked just as fast as any kick returner in the NFL, plus he has size and running back instincts that help him run through arm tackles and he has good vision in the open field. I thought footballoutsiders.com had him rated highly on kickoffs in 2003, but I can't find any mention of it on their website. Davenport could be the best kick returner in the NFL in 2004.

Jsonline.com also had an article about how TE Bubba Franks isn't a good fit in the Packers offense. Franks has been invited to a couple of Pro Bowls because this isn't a golden age of tight ends, and his 30 catches, 500 yards, a few TDs is good enough to make him one of the best in the non-TE Tony Gonzalez NFC. As a general rule, a team should never let a Pro Bowl talent in his 20s leave in free agency, because such players (who are healthy) are rarely available in free agency. Franks won't get a contract like Gonzalez in free agency, but he will get a big (for a tight end) contract because of his Pro Bowl appearances. Footballoutsiders.com ranked Franks very poorly in 2003, below TE Jason Witten and TE Mark Campbell, but surprisingly above even lower ranked Pro Bowl Baltimore TE Todd Heap. Heap was hurt in 2003 because although he caught 112 passes, he only caught a lowly 51% of the passes thrown to him, which is a criticism of Baltimore's offense (Heap was their only threat for 2/3 of the 2003 season in the passing game) as it is a criticism of Heap. Franks was ranked low by footballoutsiders.com because he didn't do much with the opportunites when they presented themselves. He is an asset to the Packers, but lesser players might be able to replace his current level of production in the Packers offense.

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

DE Jamal Reynolds was claimed by Cleveland off waivers, according to espn.com, who also report that Reynolds will be battling for a roster spot as a backup defensive end against former Dallas first round draft choice bust DE Ebenezer Ekuban. As I have said before, Reynolds's knee injuries have probably ended his NFL career before it ever started, and its unlikely Reynolds will beat out Ekuban and make Cleveland's opening 2004 roster.

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

The Packers picked up LB Tyreo Harrison on waivers from Philadelphia, who was probably released because Philadelphia signed LB Jeremiah Trotter. On a side note, Philadelphia's signing of Trotter has to be the best value signing in the NFL this offseason. Philadelphia reacquires a 27 year old former Pro Bowl linebacker who lead Washington in tackles in 2003 for under $1 million. For comparison, Cincinnati signed part-time starting LB Nate Webster, 26, from Tampa Bay as their new middle linebacker back in March for 5 years, $11.3 million with a $2.5 million signing bonus, according to The Cincinnati Enquirer online.

There is very little available regarding Harrison online. Thehuddlereport.com ranked Harrison as the 157th best player available in the 2002 draft, which would have projected out into the 5th round, and Philadelphia selected him in the 6th round. Harrison hardly played on defense at all for Philadelphia in 2003 and he was inactive for 4 of their 16 games, but he was activated for both of their playoff games. Its possible that the Packers remember his efforts on special teams in their playoff game against Philadelphia last season, and they think he could contribute on special teams for them in 2004. The Packers now have 8 linebackers on their roster, and it is likely that only 6 linebackers will make the opening roster. Harrison has some work ahead of him to move up the depth chart and make the opening roster in 2004.

Monday, July 19, 2004

The Packers lost out on free agent LB Jason Gildon. Gildon could have helped the Packers as a pass rusher on 3rd downs, opposite DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and as an outside linebacker if the Packers occasionally switched to a 3-4 alignment. Gildon's career is winding down, and its possible that any number of players currently on the Packers roster can perform as well as Gildon and equal or exceed the 6 sacks Gildon recorded in 2003. Buffalo gave Gildon a $500,000 signing bonus, and the Packers might have had trouble fitting Gildon along with all the unsigned rookies under the salary cap.

Football announcers love to say that defense wins championships, but are the most consistant teams in the NFL great offensive teams? Aaron Schatz on footballoutsiders.com was writing about Baltimore and he hinted at a new projection system he is working on that projected Baltimore as the worst team in the AFC in 2004. Why? Baltimore has a 2000 yard runner in RB Jamal Lewis and the best defense in the NFL? Because defense is less consistant than offense says Aaron. He hasn't published his system yet, but his theory sounds reasonable.

How did Tampa Bay fall from Super Bowl champion in 2002 down to missing the playoffs in 2003? Tampa Bay's defense was ranked the second best in the NFL in 2003 according to footballoutsiders.com (ahead of 2003 Super Bowl winner New England) and the team was essentially the same roster in 2003 as in 2002. Tampa Bay's DT Anthony McFarland was on ESPN's Cold Pizza saying that Tampa Bay's defense was just as good in 2003 as in 2002, except for a few plays over the course of the season. That makes some sense, as Tampa Bay's defense slipped from a percentage ranking on footballoutsiders.com of -30% in 2002 down to -22.5% in 2003. A defense as good as Tampa Bay's defense should have carried that team into the playoffs, but a great defense appears to be no guaranty of success.

Aaron's theory also explains the Packers success with QB Brett Favre as a starting quarterback. The Packers have not had a losing record with Favre as their starting quarterback, which is a remarkable run of winning in the NFL. The Packers have only one championship during Favre's career, but only the 1996 defense could have been considered the best in the NFL. Maybe defense does win championships and maybe a team is unlikely to win the championship without a great defense, but the odds are long of making the playoffs without a consistant offense. Its just another reason that the Packers need to reassure Favre everyday that retirement isn't even an option for him.

Thursday, July 15, 2004

DE Jamal Reynolds has come back (after flunking his physical with Indianapolis) and now has left again (having been released), according to various news sources. It is a weird situation because Reynolds was healthy enough to participate in two mini-camps with the Packers, but now Indianapolis is blaming a 2002 knee injury and surgery?

Maybe Reynolds was undersized to play at defensive end, but it could be that his knee injury ended his career before it ever started. Reynolds had microfacture surgery on his knee, the microfacture procedure attempts to regrow cartilage, and players have rarely come back from it to play at a high level.

Retired DT Eric Swann and DT John Randle never were the same impact players after they had the surgery. CB Jason Sehorn was a superstar, but now after the surgery he has been released by two different teams in two consecutive seasons. Denver OL Dan Neil has come back from it, but Denver's offensive line is only just slightly above average according to footballoutsiders.com. Carolina RB DeShawn Foster has come back from it to have an outstanding 2003 playoffs, but footballoutsiders.com rated him as one of the worst running backs during the 2003 regular season. LB Kevin Hardy has come back from it and had two solid seasons in Dallas and Cincinnati, but it does not appear that anyone considers Hardy a premier linebacker anymore.

Various articles on Reynolds over the years have questioned his work ethic, but even if that rumor is true, its hard for someone with superior physical skills to immediately turn himself around into an overachiever type player when suddenly the explosiveness that he used to take for granted is gone. It is unlikely that Reynolds will get a second chance in the NFL, because teams are unlikely to take chances on defensive linemen with knee problems (see fellow "can't miss" Florida State alum DE Andre Wadsworth as Exhibit A). In the end, Reynolds was a talented player who's career was derailed by injuries before it ever got a chance to start.

Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Publications are gushing about WR Robert Ferguson and WR Javon Walker.

Profootballweekly.com reported that a prominent agent said that Ferguson sold himself short (has an agent ever felt like a client got too much from a team?) while "one league source" said Ferguson is a "solid investment". Profootballweekly.com compared Ferguson to Pro Bowl wide receivers Rod Smith and Hines Ward. Its too hard to compare Ferguson to many NFL wide receivers because he came into the league a couple of years younger than most wide receivers and with so little experience. He had to sit out his first season entirely just to learn how to play. Its easy to compare Smith and Ward to Ferguson because they are all about the same size (6'0" 200 lbs. approximately), but both Smith and Ward were more productive in their first season as a starter than Ferguson was in his first starting season. Ferguson's lesser production could be the result of Ferguson younger age in comparison to the age of Smith and Ward in their first seasons as a starter. Overall, it was a risk for the Packers to reward Ferguson with a relatively large signing bonus (over $3 million) based on modest production so far in his career.

John Clayton reported on espn.com that Walker had "an exhausting offseason training regiment" and is ready to become the number one wide receiver for the Packers in 2004. Clayton reported that Walker "was virtually unstoppable against the Packers' cornerbacks in minicamp". Walker is a fantastic, but inconsistent, talent. Sometimes in 2003, Walker looked like a young Jerry Rice with his size and speed, and sometimes he looked lost. It should be expected that Walker will be "virtually unstoppable" at times in 2004, but it also should be expected that he will make some bad plays in 2004.

Thursday, July 08, 2004

Former GM Ron Wolf rebuilt the Packers into a champion, but he had very little success with first round draft choices during his tenure. Although 6 of his 10 first round picks are still playing in the NFL, only TE Bubba Franks remains with the Packers, but he is the best of the bunch, and the only one of the six to be named to a Pro Bowl. Only T Ross Verba and DE Vonnie Holliday might be starting for other teams in 2004. It is highly unlikely that DE Jamal Reynolds will find himself starting for Indianapolis in 2004.

Still this was a nice trade for Indianapolis, who acquired a potentially useful situational pass rusher in Reynolds at a low price. Reynolds has sporatically shown some pass rush ability when given the opportunity and he only cost Indianapolis a modest roster bonus (espn.com reported it was just over $200,000) plus a low future draft choice. Reynolds has the potential to provide just as many sacks on 3rd down plays as any of the free agents currently available, such as LB Jason Gildon, but at a much lower price.

It was good to see the Packers receive something in return for Reynolds, when it was apparent all offseason that they did not have any plans for him in the 2004 season. While the Packers have a lot of options to play at defensive end on rushing downs, the Packers still need to find out who is going to be rushing the quarterback on 3rd down from the defensive end position opposite DE KGB. DE Chukie Nwokorie and DE Aaron Kampman had a lot of opportunities in 2003, but neither is a situational speed rusher. LB Marcus Wilkins was injured for much of 2003 and he would also be considered as the 3rd down pass rusher at defensive end if he is healthy. The Packers could find themselves mixing and matching a lot at defensive end in 2004, although the situation became clearer with the departure of Reynolds.