Profootballweekly.com posted that three teams have shown interest in trading for CB Mike McKenzie.

Houston. Their secondary is a work in progress, but they appear unlikely to be interested in McKenzie in any way other than as a 3rd cornerback. CB Aaron Glenn is coming back from a groin injury, but he has practiced in mini-camp and appears ready to play. CB Marcus Coleman is being moved to free safety, while rookie CB Dunta Robinson (10th player taken in 2004 draft) is the likely starter opposite Glenn. CB Kenny Wright seems settled in at 3rd cornerback after his 3 interception, 12 pass defense season in 2003. McKenzie would upgrade the cornerback position in Houston, he would likely start in 2004 while Robinson learns the position as the 3rd cornerback, but I can't imagine Houston would offer much in return for McKenzie.

Pittsburgh. McKenzie would start immediately in Pittsburgh. CB Chad Scott returns for his 8th season in Pittsburgh, but longtime cornerback CB Dewayne Washington left in free agency. Opposite Scott is 7th year CB Deshea Townsend who has only started 17 games in his career. There is very little depth at cornerback, although Pittsburgh did draft well regarded rookie cornerback Richardo Colclough in the 2nd round, who will probably have a steep learning curve after playing college ball at small Tusculum. Pittsburgh is not known for trading, but they are looking to release LB Jason Gildon and might be trying to trade Gildon for McKenzie, but the Packers wouldn't trade for a linebacker likely to be released on June 1 anyway. It seems unlikely that Pittsburgh would offer a high draft choice for McKenzie when they have made so few trades in the past.

New Orleans. New Orleans is one of the few teams in the NFL that commonly makes trades, although they are more likely to trade for a high draft choice (RB Ricky Williams for two 1st round picks, OT Kyle Turley for a 2nd round pick) than trade away a high draft choice (FS Tebucky Jones for 3rd, 4th, and 7th round picks, CB Jason Craft for a 5th round pick). New Orleans has some depth at cornerback with little experience and two veteran cornerbacks in Ashley Ambrose and Fred Thomas. New Orleans' pass defense was below average last season, and the only substantial addition was trading for reserve cornerback Craft. They also let CB Dale Carter leave in free agency, but Carter was not a factor in 2003 due to his umpteenth suspension by the league. The Packers would probably not want to trade McKenzie to New Orleans, because they both play in the NFC and New Orleans could potentially compete with the Packers for a wild card spot in 2004. New Orleans has salary cap room and would probably have no problem offering a package of middle round draft choices for McKenzie, similar to the package given up for Jones, but the Packers would be unlikely to accept that offer.

It seems likely that the Packers will wait McKenzie out rather than accepting any of the offers these teams would likely make to them.

Last Monday I started looking at the offseasons for the other NFC North teams. Did each team address their team's weaknesses? Did any team break up a strong unit?

Chicago. They almost had a .500 record (7-9) but the record masked a poor season. The other two NFC teams with 7-9 records, San Francisco and Tampa Bay, both outscored their opponents during the season, but Chicago was outscored by 63 points. Footballoutsiders.com ranked Chicago 25th between 4-12 Oakland and 5-11 Atlanta. No unit on Chicago could be considered a strength, although their run defense was solid and their special teams led by K Paul Edinger and P Brad Maynard was above average.

Chicago did address some weaknesses. Their biggest weakness last season was the terrible, eye covering performance by QB Kordell Stewart, and Chicago immediately improved the position by dumping Stewart. QB Rex Grossman didn't show much last season (QB rating 74.8 and completion rate of 52.8%) but it was a small sample size and there is no where to go but up from Stewart. Footballoutsiders.com rated Chicago's offensive line as one of the worst in the NFL (26th vs. run and 27th vs. pass) and Chicago spent $14 million in a signing bonus to acquire OT John Tait. Interestingly, Chicago signed OG Ruben Brown from Buffalo, who has been to many Pro Bowls but has long been regarded as overrated, while Buffalo signed ex-Chicago OG Chris Villarrial, essentially trading guards. Brown might have been a salary cap victim in Buffalo, but maybe Buffalo actually preferred Villarrial.

Chicago failed to address a couple of problem areas. Chicago created only 18 sacks last season, the same number of sacks as were recorded by DE Michael Strahan in 2003. Chicago used their top two picks on defensive tackles Tommie Harris and Terry Johnson, but rookie defensive tackles rarely record many sacks, but maybe their presense can help 2nd year DE Michael Haynes. Chicago had little production from their receivers, only WR Marty Booker (along with seldom used but now third WR Justin Gage) generated a positive ranking on footballoutsiders.com, but the entire group of receivers is due for improvement with the upgrade at quarterback (aka dumping Stewart).

Although Chicago didn't really have any strengths to break up, they tried nonetheless to weaken units that played better than average last season. Runstopping DT Keith Traylor left in free agency from the 11th best run defense (footballoutsiders.com ranking), but his loss could be offset by the rookies Harris and Johnson. RB Anthony Thomas had a good rebound 2003 from a slumping sophomore 2002 season, Thomas was ranked by footballoutsiders.com in 2003 between Charlie Garner and Travis Henry, and he establishd himself as a solid second-tier running back. So the first signing in free agency for Chicago is RB Thomas Jones to replace Thomas. Jones was given an opportunity in Tampa Bay in 2003 after it was obvious Tampa Bay was out of the playoffs, and Jones actually showed some signs of life compared to absolutely nothing in his first three NFL seasons in Arizona. However, Jones couldn't beat out RB Michael Pittman for the first three quarters of the 2003 season, and Pittman's ranking by footballoutsiders.com is similar to Thomas. In the end, Jones will probably lose the starting job to Thomas in the preseason and wind up as the 3rd down running back.

It was news on ESPN.com that QB Kerry Collins cancelled his planned visit with the Packers, but it was surprising Collins agreed to come and visit in the first place. If Collins was willing to be the backup quarterback and be paid like a backup quarterback, he would still be on the roster for the New York Giants. Collins and QB Tim Couch want exactly the same thing, to be a big money starting quarterback, and both have been surprised that no one is willing to pay big money for a quarterback prone to making turnovers. Its possible that both Couch and Collins remain free agents until the preseason starts, waiting for a preseason injury or ineffectiveness to open the door to a starting job. But they might be better off deciding before June 1, when QB Kurt Warner becomes a free agent.

Jsonline.com reported that CB Mike McKenzie hired Drew Rosenhaus as his fifth agent in five years. Rosenhaus has developed a reputation as one of the more aggressive agents in the NFL, so this is not a good sign that the Packers can expect McKenzie to return. Rosenhaus told jsonline.com that he was targeting teams with needs at cornerback, but they have to return equal value back to the Packers. That is a short list, when you consider salary cap considerations.

All of Rosenhaus's clients have ties to Florida, McKenzie lives there in the offseason, so I started with Jacksonville. They have the salary cap room, they are rebuilding their secondary, and they could trade disgruntled SS Donovan Darius, however, Darius' availability has been widely known in the NFL and if the Packers had really wanted Darius, they probably could have traded for him before now.

Miami has the salary cap room and a quality player, DE Adewale Ogunleye, that they are having trouble resigning, but no obvious need at cornerback.

San Francisco would have the salary cap room if they traded LB Julian Peterson for McKenzie, but they passed on resigning their CB Ahmad Plummer this offseason so they don't appear to be looking for a veteran corner.

Dallas might have an interest after losing CB Mario Edwards to Tampa Bay, they have the salary cap room, and Dallas is historically accurate in the trading market, but no obvious player they could trade back in return.

Some other teams: Arizona has salary cap room, but its unlikely McKenzie wants to play in Arizona; New Orleans has cap room and would probably listen to an offer, but they probably wouldn't trade anything higher than a 3rd round pick in next season's draft, similar to what they gave up for FS Tebucky Jones last season; Kansas City has salary cap room and still needs to improve their defense, but it isn't obvious what they could trade in return; Houston was interested before the draft according to jsonline.com, but they are pretty tight against the salary cap when you consider the cost of signing their rookies; Philadelphia, San Diego, and Seattle all have some salary cap room, but no other obvious reason to trade for McKenzie.

The entire NFL has known that McKenzie wanted a trade, and any sincerely interested team could have approached the Packers by this point, but apparently no one has done it. It seems unlikely that the Packers and McKenzie will find a trading partner that suits both of them.

As May is the dead time between the draft plus first mini-camp until the June cuts plus June mini-camps, I wanted to take a look at the rest of the NFC North. Did each team address their biggest weakness in the offseason? Did any team break up a strength?

Detroit. So many holes, so little time... Detroit had no running back deserving to start and no wide receiver deserving to start opposite WR Charles Rogers, so RB Kevin Jones and WR Roy Williams filled two needs. Detroit did not address their anemic pass rush. Detroit improved their run defense by drafting LB Teddy Lehman and their offensive line signing free agent OL Damian Woody, but both their run defense and the offensive line played well in 2003. Their biggest hole is at quarterback where QB Joey Harrington improved his completion percentage and QB rating in 2003, but regressed in Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement as calculated by footballoutsiders.com. Unfortunately for Harrington, you can compare his career path so far to fellow Detroit QB Rick Mirer, which is not company Harrington should keep. Detroit should continue to struggle if Harrington stays on the Mirer career path while they continue to have no pass rush and their top rookies are learning their key offensive positions.

One mini-camp was all it took to tell the Packers that undrafted rookie free agent WR Chris Shreve was not meant to be on the team. Shreve had one asset, speed, but that was apparently all he had to offer. On the other hand, undrafted rookie free agent DE Jadae McGuire from Division II West Virginia Tech apparently showed enough to earn a contract. Defensive end is still wide open besides DE KGB, so who knows. Both the release and the signing were reported by jsonline.com.

Jsonline.com has a number of articles about what's going on with the secondary. The competition to start alongside CB Al Harris and FS Darren Sharper is wide open, and will probably remain so until the regular season starts. I'm not even considering CB Mike McKenzie because I still think he is crazy enough to sit out the season, although he hasn't missed a paycheck yet.

Jsonline.com also had another article trying to justify drafting P B.J. Sander. It can't be justified. He shouldn't have been drafted until the 6th or 7th round, and Sander is a longshot to be worth the 3rd round pick. If he really becomes the consistant directional punter the Packers think he can be, then he will be worth it, but the odds are against it happening.

At least the Packers haven't signed QB Damon Huard. QB Kerry Collins seems to be attracting attention from Oakland, according to Yahoo Sports, and when Al Davis wants someone, he usually gets him. Collins seems like a perfect Davis veteran, been to a Super Bowl, not much left in the tank, type of signing. Collins would probably be more interested in Oakland than the Packers because QB Rich Gannon is older and more fragile than QB Brett Favre. Plus, I think Oakland would consider making Gannon a cap casualty in June 2005, while the Packers would never let Favre end his days as a Packer because of the salary cap. QB Tim Couch is still looking for a job, but I haven't read about any teams other than the Packers and Chicago who are interested in him. Both Chicago and the Packers are strictly backup jobs, although its more likely Couch could start in Chicago. Right now I can't imagine any team trading for Couch, and more teams might appear as possible suitors once Cleveland releases Couch in June.

Overall, I would rather see QB Craig Nall have an opportunity than bringing in either Collins or Couch, while keeping QB Doug Pederson on as the 3rd quarterback and stashing rookie QB Scott McBride on the practice squad.

I'm getting inside the head of the Packers. I write an entry speculating that there is no way Michael Westbrook remains a Packer on the same day he is cut. There are probably a number of teams interested in Westbrook for depth in their secondary.

Jsonline.com reported that Damon Huard visited Green Bay as a possible backup quarterback. Ugh. Huard put up some respectable stats as a starter in 1999 for Miami (4-1 record along with 8 TD, 4 INT, 57.9% completion percentage, and 79.8 passer rating) before showing nothing for Miami in 2000 (60.2 passer rating) and finding himself released after the season. On the other hand, in 2003 he showed that 1 incomplete pass attempt for the season garners a QB the passer rating of 39.6. Huard's stats in 1999 and 2000 are very similar to the 62.9 rating in 1999 with Philadelphia and the 56.6 rating in 2000 with Cleveland that Doug Pederson managed to post on two bad offensive teams. Huard is a few years younger than Pederson, but it is unlikely that Huard is better than Pederson. Even with the talk surrounding Tim Couch and Kerry Collins as possible backups, it could be better to stick with the status quo and have faith in Craig Nall.

Jsonline.com reported that the Packers signed two more rookie free agents, WR Chris Day and LB Jermaine Taylor. Day is short (5'11") and small (178 lbs.) and has to be a real long shot to make the team. On the other hand, he is in good company with fellow short and small wide receivers Carl Ford, Antonio Chatman and Donald Driver. Taylor is short for a linebacker (5'10") and there are probably very few linebackers under 6' playing in the NFL. It doesn't help Taylor that he is trying to make the leap from Division III to the NFL.

Packersnews.com reported that Mike McKenzie's ex-agent Brian Parker was his fourth agent in the last five years? Very weird.

Jsonline.com reported that Bryant Westbrook is recovering from his second achilles tendon tear suffered last August, although he is unlikely to practice with the team until training camp. This was his second achilles tendon tear in three seasons. Westbrook is a lost superstar; in his first 51 NFL starts prior to turning 26 years old, he had 11 interceptions, 3 interception returns for touchdowns, and 66 pass defenses. In 2000, he was on pace for his third season of 20+ pass defenses in his first four seasons (he missed half of the 1999 season with injuries) before his first achilles tendon tear. Only 5 cornerbacks recorded 20+ pass defenses in 2003 in the NFL, only 4 cornerbacks did it in 2002, and none of the players who did it in 2002 repeated the feat in 2003.

Westbrook is not the same player he was before his injuries. His speed must be a shadow of its former self, because the Packers have no intention of keeping him at cornerback and he is only playing safety, according to jsonline.com. He was a great pickup in 2002, when the Packers were suffering from injuries in the secondary, but he will have a hard time keeping his job with the Packers this season. There are four safeties (Darren Sharper, Mark Roman, Marques Anderson, and Curtis Fuller) with swing men Bhawoh Jue and Michael Hawthorne likely to see time at both safety and cornerback. Westbrook probably has a couple of seasons left in him at a safety position, but probably not with the Packers.

Mike McKenzie fired his agent according to jsonline.com. It sounds like McKenzie isn't getting what he wants, a new contract and a trade to a new team. Neither of these things are going to happen for McKenzie, so it looks like the messenger was shot. He probably wasn't too thrilled to read that Brett Favre and Ahman Green were quoted on jsonline.com as saying McKenzie should honor his contract and report for mini camp. I don't know if this is a good sign that McKenzie wants to make some sort of a deal and report to camp quickly, or if he wants a new agent to force the Packers into trading him.

Jsonline.com is usually gushing with praise for the Packers front office and coaches, that is what beat writers are supposed to do, but they had an article that was very critical of drafting P B.J. Sander in the 3rd round, and especially critical of their decision to trade up to draft him. As I've said before, I would never draft a kicker, because punters and place kickers are too inconsistant. Sander can expect a lot of criticism because of his high draft selection. Its unlikely that the Packers 4th and 5th round picks would have made an impact on the team, only 6 players the Packers have drafted in the 4th or 5th round are still with the team, but still the Packers have success historically in these rounds. Excluding previous 4th and 5th round picks that are starting in the NFL, QB Mark Brunell, QB Aaron Brooks, and WR Corey Bradford, the Packers drafted DEs KGB and Aaron Kampman, LB Na'il Diggs, RB Najeh Davenport, QB Craig Nall, and DT James Lee. 6 of the 11 last picks by the Packers in the 4th and 5th rounds are still with the team. If the Packers have a 50% success rate with 4th and 5th round picks, then the Packers essentially traded one of those players for a punter.

Another problem with trading this draft's fourth and fifth round picks for the pick that brought in Sander is that the Packers could have used either of the picks to draft a wide receiver, and this year's draft was deep in wide receivers. The Packers are set at their top 3 receiver spots with WRs Donald Driver, Javon Walker, and Robert Ferguson, but after those three, its a bare cupboard. Only WR Carl Ford has showed any promise, and that was only during last preseason because the Packers hid him on the injured reserve for all of 2003. This explains why rookie free agent wide receivers Sam Breeden and Chris Shreve were brought into minicamp. The Packers have no intention of bringing back WR Antonio Freeman, they gave his number 86 to Ford, but Driver, Walker and Ferguson all missed time with injuries in 2003, so I would expect the Packers will be signing a veteran free agent to back them up at some point this summer.

Mark Hatley signed a contract extension to remain in the Packers' front office, acting as the number 2 personal guru behind Mike Sherman. Hatley did a good job rebuilding Chicago after the Dave Wannstedt era, acquiring all of the important players involved with Chicago's great 13-3 season in 2001. While in Chicago, he drafted such studs as Brian Urlacher, and he also drafted such duds as Cade McNown; such is the mixed resume that makes up every general manager's resume (although Hatley wasn't the "general manager" in title, because the McCaskey family were such control freaks that Chicago didn't have a general manager from 1985-2001). The Packers have become a better team since Hatley's arrival, so its good to see he will remain with the Packers.

One thing that was mentioned on ESPN during the draft was that the CB Ahmad Carroll played man-to-man coverage at Arkansas, and that was needed by all teams in the NFL because the league would be enforcing the rule that defenders can't put their hands on receivers after 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. This was an issue last season, especially since keeping their hands on the receivers during their routes was a main part of the strategy used by Carolina's secondary in the playoffs. As jsonline.com reports, this isn't a new rule, just an actual enforcement of existing rules. Who knows if the NFL will actually improve their enforcement in this area, but it might take away some of the glamour from cover 2 coverage schemes in 2004.

Nate Wayne won his dispute over a roster bonus according to jsonline.com . As usual, the lawyer screwed up. Apparently the NFL told the Packers they had until March 10 to make a roster decision with Wayne, while they actually had to make up their mind on March 9. I always expected the Packers to lose this battle, and it especially hurts because the entire reason why they cut Wayne was to avoid paying this bonus. The only consulation in this whole matter is that Philadelphia wasn't too impressed with Wayne's play last season, so Wayne isn't playing at the level he did a couple of seasons ago.

I forgot to mention one other player as a possible third tight end for next season. Jsonline.com reminded me that converted linebacker TE Tony Donald is playing in NFL Europe, and the Packers are keeping a close eye on him. Donald and rookie free agent TE Keith Willis will have to show something in camp to make an impression and make the roster, because the Packers are keeping the phone number for TE Wesley Walls handy. It didn't hurt the Packers last season, but with Walls and TE David Martin as the Packers options as the second tight end in short yardage situations, the Packers often brought in backup T Kevin Barry as tight end eligible. It limited the plays the Packers could run, and reduced the opportunities for QB Brett Favre to throw to the tight end. Martin and Walls bring the same type of game, weak in blocking but strong pass receiving skills. The fact that Walls isn't in camp makes it appear that the Packers would rather have Donald or Willis make the team, rather than ask Walls to return.

One interesting note is that DE Jamal Reynolds is participating in mini camp, according to jsonline.com. Usually when a player is going to be cut after June 1, like DE Joe Johnson or QB Tim Couch in Cleveland, the team will not invite the player to mini camp and will not let him use their practice facilities. The Packers have not added a defensive end this offseason, although they have drafted and resigned a number of defensive tackles, and if Reynolds is bulking up in order to be effective on running plays, as it was indicated that he was according to jsonline.com, then he might find himself on the 2004 roster. Right now, he is as good a candidate to play on 3rd downs, when the Packers need a pass rushing defensive end opposite KGB, as any defensive lineman or linebacker on the roster. It would be something to find out that he still has a place with the Packers, and it would be remarkable if he actually contributes in 2004.

So far the Packers have signed about a dozen rookie free agents that were not drafted. The Packers are unlikely to sign any rookie free agent that has an impact or even makes the team, but that is how the Packers acquired RB Tony Fisher.

The only rookie free agent signed so far that I have heard of is southpaw QB Scott McBride. McBride is currently the 4th QB on the roster and due to receive a lot of practice and playing time this preseason, because I wouldn't expect Doug Pederson or Brett Favre to practice too much or play in that many preseason games. I would expect Craig Nall to receive the bulk of playing and practice time, with McBride playing and practicing as much as Pederson and Favre.

Many of the other rookie free agents didn't even start at college according to jsonline.com. Two other rookie free agents do merit some attention. LB Maurice Jones was a three-year starter at South Florida according to jsonline.com. The Packers have a number of candidates for backup linebackers, but none of them are locks to make the team. If Jones outperforms everyone short of the starting linebackers and plays well on special teams, he will make the team. The Packers only have two tight ends on the roster, so TE Keith Willis has a great opportunity to make the team. According to thehuddlereport.com, Willis is your typical athlete with all the size and skill (6'5", 260 lbs. 4.76 in the 40 yard dash) to play in the NFL, but he is an underachiever. TE David Martin did not improve last season, so a great preseason by Willis could make him the number two tight end.

The draft for the rest of the NFC North.

Detroit. Detroit's offense and defense needed a lot of help, and the offense got it with two first round draft choices. WR Roy Williams and RB Kevin Jones were arguably the two best players at their positions in the entire draft. Both positions badly needed an upgrade, so this can only help Detroit immediately. Jones was a peculiar pick for Steve Mariucci's offense, because Jones is not regarded as a good receiver, so its unlikely he will remain on the field for all three downs. Detroit's offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL in 2003 and added expensive free agent Damian Woody at guard, so it can only be better. All this is irrelevant on offense if Joey Harrington doesn't improve in 2004, which is not a given. Detroit drafted two linebackers, Teddy Lehman and Alex Lewis, who could help in 2004, but did nothing to improve an aging defensive line who lost starter Luther Elliss.

Chicago. In Lovie Smith's 3 years in St. Louis as defensive coordinator, St. Louis had 5 first round picks, all 5 picks were defensive players, and 3 of them were athletic and fast defensive tackles. So it was no surprise that in his first year in Chicago as head coach, Smith drafted a fast and athletic defensive tackle in Tommie Harris. Then Smith did it again in the 2nd round with Terry "Tank" Johnson. Chicago badly needed some depth at defensive tackle, so overall this is not a surprise. Last season in St. Louis, Smith coordinated one of the best defenses in the NFL with arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. St. Louis shut down Ahman Green in their matchup against him. Maybe in 2005, Chicago is a candidate for the best defense in the NFL.

Minnesota. Kenechi Udeze was expected to be drafted earlier, but injury concerns pushed him down to Minnesota. Udeze has elite pass rushing ability and the size to play every down. Udeze is unlikely to improve on 2003 defensive end Lance Johnstone's 9 sacks, but Minnesota should be better against the run. Linebacker Dontarrious Thomas was drafted in the 2nd round, and packers.com said he was coveted by the Packers because he is fast, and the Packers currently covet fast players. Thomas, along with Chris Claiborne and E.J. Henderson, might make a very good linebacker group starting in 2005.

This Packers draft was one of the most boring draft by any team in the NFL. That doesn't mean it was a bad draft, but the Packers didn't trade up in the first round, didn't give up future picks for picks in this year's draft, and didn't draft any big name college players in the latter rounds. That leads to a bad draft grade by some pundits.

The Packers were unlikely to have a great draft, because they were always drafting at the bottom of the round, and every player they drafted has a substantial negative attached to them. The only two positions where it was essential to add some depth was cornerback and defensive line. I expected them to draft at least one defensive end, instead drafting two defensive tackles that could play defensive end. It looks like they stayed true to their draft rankings, and drafted the best player available at their picks.

The trading was very peculiar. The Packers traded their 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 7th round picks for two extra 3rd round picks, while trading their own 3rd round pick to move up in the 3rd round and there own 6th round pick to move up in the 6th round. Not a bad strategy; trading a 4th and a 5th round pick to move up into the more lucrative 3rd round, while not giving up any future picks. It all depends on the picks you move up to draft.

Ahmad Carroll. He is really fast. Packers.com reported that he has run as fast as 4.26 in the 40 yard dash. Wow. Fast seems to be the current theme for the Packers. This is the second draft in a row where the Packers have looked first at a player's 40 yard time, and then at all other football abilities. Corey Chavous was on ESPN's draft coverage, he said he worked with Carroll this spring, and said Carroll is very talented, a very hard worker, but needs to work on his footwork. Chris Berman (I believe) said Carroll's best game last year in college was against Eli Manning, however, the best college game of Jamal Reynolds's college career came against Michael Vick, and that was no true indication of his NFL ability. The two downgrades on Carroll are that he is not tall and he needs more practice time. Overall, it sounds like Carroll is unlikely to contribute in 2004. Maybe, if he doesn't hold out and he works hard to learn his position this preseason, then he can contribute in multiple cornerback alignments, but only later in the 2004 season. He sounds like a starter in 2005.

Joey Thomas. Another speedster cornerback with a 4.44 time in the 40 yard dash. Thomas is taller (6'0") than Carroll. If Thomas is taller than Carroll and almost as fast as Carroll, then what the heck is he doing in the 3rd round? Thomas played at Division I-AA Montana State which makes it really hard to evaluate him. He will certainly make the team on his speed alone, he is unlikely to contribute in 2004, but he is a possible starter in 2005.

Donnell Washington. He is a big man with the listed weight similar to Grady Jackson, although its unlikely Jackson is his listed weight of 330, and the height of Cletidus Hunt. He is probably expected to backup Jackson next season at nose tackle, a position at which the Packers desperately needed some depth. Packers.com compared him to Packer defensive lineman James Lee, because Washington and Lee are almost exactly the same height and weight, but Washington started 26 games at Clemson, while Lee never was a full time starter at Oregon State. He has the size and physical ability to start at nose tackle in the NFL, so its all up to Washington to perform.

B.J. Sander. Just a wasted pick. I don't like drafting kickers, because they are too inconsistant and are easily cut after one bad season. It sounds like Sander only had one good season in college, last season with Ohio State, and it sounds like it was his only season as the full time punter. Plus, the Packers wasted picks on Josh Bidwell and Brett Conway in recent years, which should have taught them something. The Packers should have tried to bring someone like Sander in as a free agent, instead of using a top 100 pick to draft him.

Corey Williams. With the departures of Gilbert Brown and Rod Walker, and the eventual departures of Jamal Reynolds and Joe Johnson, the Packers need more depth on the defensive line, so Williams has a good chance to make the team. Larry Smith is the most likely player to backup Hunt, so Williams, Aaron Kampman, Chukie Nwokorie, and Kenny Peterson will probably battle it out in the preseason to start at defensive end opposite KGB. It sounds odd to mention a 6th round rookie as a possible defensive line starter, but the position battle at defensive end should be wide open. I read somewhere that the Packers were talking to free agent Tony Brackens at defensive end, but it appears that Brackens wants too much money, and he is too injury prone to deserve big money. Williams would have probably been drafted higher had he come out in his junior year, because he suffered from numerous injuries in his senior season.

Scott Wells. Wells is the only center on the roster besides Mike Flanagan, Rob Davis is a center in name but he is the long snapper only, so Wells has a good opportunity to make the team. If he can play some guard too, he probably is a lock to make the team. The Packers have done well in recent years with offensive lineman from Tennessee (Chad Clifton) and offensive lineman picked in the 7th round (Mark Tauscher).

Overall, the Packers needed to improve their depth in the defensive backfield and line, and they did both with fast players with good size. Not an exciting draft, but looking ahead to the 2005 season, it made the Packers a better team.

The Packers signed free agent cornerback Chris Watson, who missed all of 2003 with an injury, the day after missing out on free agent cornerback Terrence Shaw, who signed with Carolina. Watson provides more depth at cornerback for the Packers, although its unlikely he makes the team if Mike McKenzie works out his differences with the Packers. Still, Watson's signing removes some of the pressure to overreach for a cornerback tomorrow in the draft. Watson is a tremendous value signing if he is healthy. I'm going to compare him to cornerback Jason Webster, who signed a multi-year deal with Atlanta this offseason and was given a $7 million signing bonus.

Both players are 26 years old, and will turn 27 years old by the end of the 2004. Webster missed most of 2003, playing in only 5 games, while Watson missed all of 2003. Both players passed a physical to sign with their respective new teams, so I'm assuming that both players are now healthy. In 2002, Webster started in 16 games, had 85 tackles, 1 interception, and 11 pass defenses for San Francisco, while Watson started in 8 games, had 44 tackles, 1 interception and 7 pass defenses for Buffalo. Essentially both players had identical statistics in their last healthy season, when you consider that Webster had approximately twice as many opportunities as Watson had to make plays. Watson has one clear advantage over Webster, Watson is 6'1" to Webster 5'10", which is an advantage for the Packers because Minnesota (Randy Moss, Marcus Robinson), Chicago (David Terrell, Justin Gage), and Detroit (Charles Rogers, Tai Streets) all have multiple receivers over 6'2" that expect to see a lot of playing time in 2004 against the Packers. Everything else being equal between Watson and Webster, Watson's height advantage may make him the better player for the Packers, while signing him for $7 million less than Webster. Even if statistics just can't show that Webster is the superior player to Watson, then the Packers still have a player who is comparable to Webster for a fraction of the price.

The worst thing the Packers could do right now is overreact and trade Mike McKenzie before the draft. According to jsonline.com, the Packers are not making any attempts to trade him, which is the right thing to do. The Packers should have been looking to draft at least one cornerback anyway, because McKenzie is the only cornerback under contract past this season. Mike Sherman's comments reported by jsonline.com sounded like someone who is preparing to play without McKenzie, but is willing to discuss the problem and not to "keep my head in the sand". The Packers should make contigency plans, maybe signing free agent cornerback Terrance Shaw is an option, as jsonline.com reported that Shaw visited Green Bay last week, or looking at the free agent market after the June 1 cuts. Any free agent cornerback signed now is just providing depth behind the probable top three cornerbacks Al Harris, Michael Hawthorne and Bhawoh Jue. A holdout is historically unlikely, because the last big named player to sit out in the NFL was Sean Gilbert in 1997, and he wasn't under contract. I can't think of the last player, under a multi-year contract, who sat out for an entire season. Eventually, the failure to report fines end up costing the player too much money, and he eventually reports to work. Jsonline.com reported that McKenzie is contemplating retirement instead of playing again for the Packers, but that is easy to say in April and much harder to do in September.

Torrence Marshall, Tony Fisher, and David Martin all signed their one year offers from the Packers. All three players may seen substantial playing time as the top backups at their respective position, or its possible all three players are cut in the preseason. There all on the edge of the roster. All three players need to stay healthy, continue to show improvement, and play well when given the opportunity.

The Packers waived punter Travis Hale, who apparently didn't outperform either prospective punter Travis Dorsch or Nathan Chapman in minicamp this April.

So who are the Packers going to draft, assuming they don't draft a quarterback in the first round? As I said in previous posts, all the Tim Couch talk leads me to believe that the Packers have no intention of drafting a quarterback with the first pick. Unlike last year, when all three linebacker positions were unknown, except that Na'il Diggs would play one of the positions, there is no obvious need position for 2004.

Who might the Packers draft on defense? The defensive end position opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila could be one need position, although Chukie Nwokorie and Aaron Kampman played well and someone like Marcus Wilkins might be used on passing downs, and the defensive ends likely to still be available at this point would be a reach. A defensive tackle is possible, although there are no obvious draft candidates, this draft is not loaded with quality defensive tackles like in 2003, and the starters are set with Grady Jackson and Cletidus Hunt. I can't see the Packers going linebacker for the second year in a row. Safeties are rarely drafted in the first round, and only Sean Taylor, who should be long gone by the Packers pick, has a first round grade. Maybe a cornerback, but that could be any one of a number of players including Dunta Robinson, Chris Gamble, Will Poole, etc. and none of these players are likely to start or even play 3rd cornerback ahead of Mike McKenzie, Al Harris and Michael Hawthorne, assuming that the Packers and McKenzie work out their disagreements.

Who might the Packers draft on offense? There are no obvious needs for 2004, but there might be for 2005. Offensive line is set for 2004, but Marco Rivera is a free agent next offseason. The player that really interests me is offensive guard/tackle Justin Smiley. Smiley is regarded as the second best offensive lineman in the draft, according to Pat Kirwan at nfl.com, but what I really like about him was that he started 36 games at Alabama, and like fellow SEC offensive lineman Chad Clifton, he never allowed a quarterback sack. Never. The only reason Smiley falls down to the Packers pick is that he grades out as a likely guard, and guards aren't usually drafted in the first round (only 2 offensive guards have been drafted in the first round in the last 4 drafts). This is a deep draft for wide receiver, and although no wide receiver drafted by the Packers is likely to beat out Donald Driver, Javon Walker or Robert Ferguson, a very good wide receiver, such as Wisconsin's Lee Evans, might be available. This is not a deep draft for running backs, and the top two backs, Steven Jackson and Kevin Jones, should not be available for when the Packers anyway. The Packers only have two tight ends, Bubba Franks and David Martin, on the roster, and there is a really good tight end, Ben Troupe, who will likely be available. Troupe would be a luxury, but he and Franks could bring back memories of the Mark Chmura/Keith Jackson season of 1996.

Overall, although the defense could use the help, I really like Justin Smiley or my second choice would be Ben Troupe. However, major disclaimer, I was completely surprised by the Nick Barnett selection last season, and Barnett was a steal. Here is to hoping the Packers disagree with me and instead pick another great player.

Tom Silverstein wrote a very good article for the April 16th Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal. http://www.jsonline.com/packer/news/apr04/222815.asp The article said that the Packers look back at player evaluations from previous drafts. Any organization that isn't looking back at past drafts for successful trends, or for flawed reasoning, is not doing their job properly. It is great to read that the Packers are constantly self-evaluating their talent evaluation.

The Tim Couch talks continue to drag out. The fact that the Packers continue to talk with Couch makes me believe that they have no intention of drafting a quarterback in the first round. I think the Packers might draft a quarterback if one that Mike Sherman really likes falls to them at the right time, such as when Craig Nall, who Sherman really liked out of college, was still available in the 5th round. Nall's name was hardly mentioned at all pre-draft that year, so maybe Sherman was wrong about Nall, but Nall hasn't been given an opportunity in the NFL to prove Sherman wrong. As for Couch, he might as well ask for starter's money, but he will eventually sign for backup's money with incentives if he becomes the starter, just as the Packers have offered, whether its the Packers of some other team after he is cut by Cleveland on June 1st. It sounds like Couch has no interest in playing for the Packers, and he is only interested in being well paid for one year as a backup before some other team signs him to start in 2005.

One year later, the Packers get their man and sign free agent linebacker Armegis Spearman. Spearman was expected to fill the either the middle or weakside linebacker position in 2003, however Cincinnati matched the Packers offer to the restricted free agent but then surprisingly cut Spearman during the preseason. Ironically, Spearman's best season was his rookie season 2000 and his stats in 2000 (73 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass defenses) are similar to the 2003 season for Hannibal Navies (86 tackles, 1 sack, 2 pass defenses) who is the free agent linebacker the Packers signed to play the weakside after missing out on Spearman. Both Navies and Spearman have had injury problems in prior seasons, although 2003 was the first season that Navies had stayed injury free. Its unlikely Spearman has a shot to replace Nick Barnett, Na'il Diggs or Navies at starting linebacker, but he appears to have the size and speed to be able to play any linebacker position. He could be the top backup because none of the other backup linebackers (Steve Josue, Paris Lenon, Torrance Marshall, or Marcus Wilkins) are guaranteed a spot on the Packers roster, but if all of them are healthy during the preseason it will be a fierce competition.

The Packers missed out on the opportunity to sign restricted free agent defensive end Bryce Fisher. The opportunity is not a big loss, because the Packers can find a player like Fisher in the middle rounds of the draft, if it is a priority.

The other restricted free agent news is that tight end David Martin, cornerback Bhawoh Jue, and linebacker Marshall all come back for next season. Martin does not seem to be anything more than a third tight end, but it is possible that Marshall gets his act together, avoids banned substances, and becomes a starting linebacker. Jue overcame injuries in 2002 to come back in 2003 and play horrible. He was burned badly on a few plays in 2003 and contributed mightly to the home loss versus Kansas City and the playoff loss to Philadelphia. Once a cornerback loses his confidence, sometimes it never comes back. Jue has the ability to start, so here's to hoping he overcomes his poor 2003 season, regains any confidence he lost in 2003, and gets his career back on track.

Strong safety Donovin Darius is expected to be traded from Jacksonville for a two fourth round picks (one in 2004 and one in 2005) on the second day of the NFL draft according to profootballweekly.com. Darius could step right and be the starting strong safety for the Packers. Darius's play is similar to Marques Anderson (good run support, but questionable pass coverage), however, his play appears to be more consistant, and he appears to have the reputation as a ferocious hitter and a veteran leader, which are the sort of qualities that make some coaches weak in the knees. Apparently Jack Del Rio is not that type of coach. Darius is still playing at a high level and a scout speaking to profootballweekly.com thinks Darius is a steal for 2 fourth round draft choices. Darius is signed for the 2004 season, he signed the one year $4.113 million qualifing offer he received for being given the franchise label by Jacksonville, so Jacksonville isn't trading him because they can't agree to contract terms. Apparently Jacksonville is just trying to save some money and get value for the 28 year old safety before he reaches the wrong side of 30.

Darius is unlikely to be traded to the Packers, because the Packers do not have enough room under the salary cap to afford his $4.113 million 2004 contract and they recently signed Mark Roman and project him as their 2004 strong safety.

The most likely location is Detroit. Detroit cut 2003 starting safety Corey Harris and they are $9.36 million under the cap, plenty of room to trade for Darius and sign their draft choices. Further, profootballweekly.com reported that the trade would happen only if the other unnamed team doesn't acquire a safety in the first two rounds. Detroit has a high draft choice, 6th overall, which would be the spot some mock drafts believe safety Sean Taylor of Miami (FL) will be drafted. If Detroit misses out on Taylor at 6th overall, then Detroit would end up with a great player at that pick anyway, maybe defensive end Kenechi Udeze from USC, and a new pro bowl safety in Darius. With Udeze and Darius, Detroit's defense could be greatly improved in 2004. Detroit would be even better off drafting a defensive tackle after releasing veteran Luther Elliss, but there doesn't appear to be a concensus top 10 defensive tackle in this year's draft. The only other obvious team with salary cap room, a need at strong safety, and a top 10 pick to possibly select Taylor is Houston. Hopefully, Darius remains in the AFC with Houston and doesn't help Detroit's defense take a huge step forward in 2004.

Antuan Edwards accepted an offer for the veterans minimum of $535,000 to play for Miami next season according to jsonline.com and espn.com. Its a bit of a risk for Edwards for two reasons. First, there is no guaranteed money in the Miami deal, although the Packers only guaranteed $100,000, so if Edwards is injured (again) during the preseason, then Miami can easily cut him and not worry about their salary cap. Second, if the competition is tight during the preseason between Edwards and another player, Miami has no established relationship with Edwards while Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has worked with Edwards for the last four seasons. However, Miami has parted ways with two members of their 2003 secondary, Brock Marion (free safety) and Jamal Fletcher (ex-Badger third cornerback), while the Packers brought in Mark Roman to compete for the strong safety position Edwards had last season.

Mike McKenzie is unhappy with the Packers, according to the associated press. This brings the total to two pro bowl cornerbacks (Ty Law and McKenzie) that are upset with their contracts after watching second tier corners like Antoine Winfield receive eight figure signing bonuses this off season.

McKenzie is also upset with the way last season ended in Philadelphia and maybe it isn't such a bright idea to fire the defensive coordinator (Ed Donatell) and replace him with the defensive backs coach (Slowik) when the problem during the playoff game loss was the defensive pass coverage. Jsonline.com reported that McKenzie's loyalty to assistant defensive backs coach Lionel Washington, who was bypassed for promotion to Slowik's old job when the Packers hired Kurt Shottenheimer, is another complaint for McKenzie. I am a fan of the hiring of Shottenheimer, who is very familiar with the NFC North as defensive coordinator with Detroit last season, but I can understand why McKenzie is upset that the Packers seemingly overlooked a qualified in house candidate in Washington.

There also appears to be some mixed signals, McKenzie thinking one thing and Sherman doing something else. Sherman appears to keep all football matters close to the vest and probably is not one of the top players coaches in the NFL. Sherman has seemed to have a way with working these matters out with the players, as he did with Nai'l Diggs during last offseason.

In the end, McKenzie would never had requested a trade if it weren't for the money, no matter what is said to the contrary. When Champ Bailey receives a signing bonus ($18 million) that is worth more than your entire 5 year contract (McKenzie signed for $17 million in 2002), although your 2003 stats outpassed him (McKenzie had 4 INT and 18 Pass Defends to Bailey's 2 INT and 9 PD), then you have a reason to complain. Those stats don't tell the whole story because offenses avoided throwing at Bailey which allowed McKenzie to have many more opportunities, however, the two remain comparable players and McKenzie appears to be a bargain for the next three seasons. I can't think of a single case where the Packers have renegotiated a contract for a player when it was not initiated by the Packers for salary cap relief, so any contract renegotiation for McKenzie seems unlikely.

In the end, this is a potential holdout situation. The Packers cannot replace McKenzie's preformance and contract value at cornerback, and a team thinking Super Bowl cannot trade its number one cornerback. Sherman will probably talk to McKenzie this week and hopefully the Packers can avoid McKenzie's potential holdout.