Friday, April 24, 2020

Top Thing I Hate Today: Packers Draft Jordan Love

I've been having a really tough time with life. 2019 was an exhausting year and I gave up on my career of the last 15 years. 2020 has been a tough professional transition from one of hope into one of daily disappointment. As I struggle with the parts of my life that I can control, I really didn't need the Green Bay Packers to use a 1st round pick (AND trade up in the 1st round!) for Jordan Forking Love.
The rule is that college QBs who throw a lot of INTs are not good NFL prospects, and that Dan Marino is the exception who proves the rule.

But I'm going to start out by defending the selection because after Love it looks like there was no other player left with a first round grade on the Packers' draft board. Here are the players selected in the first round after him:

  • ILB Jordan Brooks, Texas Tech, a one-dimensional run stopping linebacker with limited coverage skills. 
  • ILB Patrick Queen. LSU, a one-year starter in college.
  • OT Isaiah Wilson, Georgia, a slow giant who might be a turnstile in pass protection.
  • CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn, a future slot corner with no ball skills.
  • CB Jeff Gladney, TCU, an undersized corner who might not have the physical skills to overcome being too short.
  • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU, running backs are not valuable enough to use a first round pick on them in the modern NFL.
The highest pick to be traded on draft day was No. 13, and even then the 49ers only moved down one spot. Only one team (New England, of course) managed to trade out of the first round on draft day. Teams did not want any part of this year's first round.

There was talk before the draft that the Packers were talking about trading up but it probably wasn't worth the cost in a weak first round. They probably couldn't have traded out of the first round either because no other non-New England team did it. I hate trading up but the cost was only a late 4th round pick and I don't mind them trading away any pick after the third round.

But the Packers have to be better evaluators of talent then almost everyone else for this to succeed. If they didn't really believe in Love either and took him because he was the only high-risk player remaining on their draft board with a first round grade then they couldn't see the forest for the trees.

To excuse this selection there are going to be a lot of comparisons to back when Ted Thompson surprised everyone by selecting Aaron Rodgers in the first round. Rodgers was a great prospect, not perfect so I understand some of the reasons why he slipped, but he got better each year and only threw 13 INTs total in two years at Cal. Love threw 17 INTs last season. I'm a big believer in college INTs as an indicator of future NFL accuracy and the ESPN stats above back me up. 

Rodgers falling in the 2005 draft was as if Tua had fell to the Packers. I'd be writing about how Tua was way too good to pass on despite his injury history and I would have applauded them. Love is no Tua.

What should the Packers have done instead?

The Packers need to improve on or replace Kevin King at CB, Billy Turner at RG, Bryan Bulaga at RT and everyone not named Davante Adams at WR. They've needed a dynamic inside LB for so many years that I've given up on it ever happening. But it was very unlikely that anyone drafted at the end of the first round would actually have started in Week 1 at any position. 

However I expect that they are still going to draft some other players over the next couple days. I assume that there are still many players available who have a second round grade on their draft board. They should have treated their first round pick like an expensive second round pick. There would have certainly been a WR available.

Coming off an NFC Championship appearance they should have risked some of their future to win now while the window is still open. But maybe the moves weren't available if it turns out to be a weak draft class and they couldn't attract the players they needed in free agency because of the situation and the salary cap. Free agents know it's cold in Green Bay. Maybe all they could have done is added some depth in the draft. Or maybe I'm wrong and Jordan Love is going to be a great pro QB in a couple years. 

But today this doesn't feel right.

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