Packers 2017 Free Agency: The Good and The Bad

Every year GM Ted Thompson waves good bye to one or two members of the Green Bay Packers who played a significant role in the past. And next year the Packers usually return to the top of the NFC North anyway. There isn't anyone essential that's been lost but they do have to figure out who's going to replace Hyde, Lang and Peppers. In order of the players that they've lost:

TE Jared Cook. Technically he's still a free agent but he's not coming back because the Packers signed Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks. Cook transformed their offense when he returned from injury mid-season but so can Bennett who I've gotten used to as an annoying match-up problem when he played for the Bears. I also had some concerns about Cook because of the occasional drop and fumble. Also, Bennett's a real TE while Cook was more like an oversized WR. This is a swap for a better player and a good move.

The impact of Martellus Bennett's signing, opportunity at outside linebacker and more.

Insider Inbox 📬: https://t.co/TiO51ztY68 pic.twitter.com/bSn2AXwzWw

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) March 11, 2017

DB Micah Hyde. I've been a big fan of his but obviously the coaches had some reservations. He was never in the mix to start at corner or safety in four seasons and even when they were falling apart last season at corner, he only played on the outside in the playoffs when the Packers were completely out of options (he did pretty well). It's OK to let a free agent walk if the coaches don't view him as a starter, especially when a deep cornerback draft is on the horizon. Unfortunately I've recently lost some faith in their front office's ability to scout corners (see Randall, Rollins) or know when they should keep a free agent DB (see Casey Hayward).

RG T.J. Lang. He's the loss that hurts the most but I've been bracing for it the minute I saw him being carted off during their playoff loss in Atlanta. The Packers were in the bidding but they didn't match the Lions' price. There were a lot of signs that Lang was soon to be a former Packer. GM Ted Thompson has a long history of letting interior offensive lineman leave in free agency (Wahle, Rivera, Wells, Dietrich-Smith) and you can add the release of Josh Sitton last year too. There are good reasons not to give offensive lineman their third long-term contract once they're over age 30 and none of those departures listed above came back to haunt them. The concern is that they don't have a replacement on hand because they also let JC Tretter leave in free agency. The remaining free agent guards are the sort of older veterans, major injury concerns, or disappointments that the Packers never sign, or might sign on a minimum contract, and none of them could be considered a realistic replacement anyway. This is not a good year to draft a guard either. OL Don Barclay was re-signed on a one-year deal if no one else works out, but I'd have to imagine they'll give second year players Jason Spriggs and Kyle Murphy the first opportunities.

OLB Julius Peppers. He had a great three year run in Green Bay. He's an athletic freak who doesn't seem to have missed a game due to injury since 2007. His stats were down a little but they tried to play him less while also asking him to do more than just rush the passer. Carolina was going to have the hometown pull over him that the Packers couldn't match and it's unrealistic to pay him several million per season when he's not playing starter's snaps. But he can still play for a couple more seasons and he'll be missed. Luckily this is a pretty strong draft for edge rushers.

Vincent Verhei on The Packers and the 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac

Vincent Verhei (@FO_VVerhei) wrote the chapters on the NFC North for the always excellent 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac. The chapter on the Green Bay Packers focused on two interesting points. The Packer defense has been coordinated by Dom Capers since 2009 using a similar scheme and concepts in each of those years, but the Packers' defense has been widely variable in those years, from really good (2009, 2010) to really bad (2011, 2013) and places in between (2012, 2014-2015). Also, the wide receivers last season, as a group, for the Packers were really bad to mediocre without Jordy Nelson. I asked him a couple questions about how the Packers compare to the rest of the NFC North and whether there's any hope for Davante Adams.

FINALLY. The Kindle edition of FOA 2016 is available for $17.99. https://t.co/I7Vsa4Nant

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) August 26, 2016

"You wrote the chapters on all the NFC North teams so what would you say is the one advantage and one disadvantage the Packers have compared to the rest of the conference?"
Well, the first question is easy: the Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and for sure the best in the division. Chicago's Jay Cutler and Detroit's Matt Stafford are both pretty average starters, though Stafford has more upside considering he's still only 28. The consensus Football Outsiders opinion on Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater is that he has a very bright long-term future, but we're still skeptical about his targets in the passing game in 2015.

And the second question is just as easy: inside linebacker. While the Bears have added Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, Detroit is getting back a healthy DeAndre Levy, and Minnesota has
up-and-comer Eric Kendricks, the Packers are trying to keep their heads above water with a collection of low-round draft picks and undrafted players who nobody else wanted. I know the Packers are high on fourth-rounder Blake Martinez, but if he were likely to step in and make a big impact he wouldn't have lasted to the 131st pick.

"You wrote about the high year-to-year variance from Dom Capers's defenses and the pass defense was pretty good last season (-6.8%, ranked 6th best) so is there something (or some player) to watch for as a sign that they've regressed this season? Or am I being too pessimistic and should be looking for a player to emerge this season that could turn their defense into one of the best?"
I guess the single biggest concern going into 2016 would be the pass rush. Julius Peppers is 37 this year, while Clay Matthews is 31 and might wind up playing inside a lot again. Nobody else on the team had more than four sacks last year. Capers blitzes a lot, so they should be able to generate some pressure regardless, but without a dominant one-on-one edge rusher those blitzes will be much easier to pick up.

"Is there any hope for Davante Adams this season? The player analysis in the Wide Receivers section was absolutely brutal. And it was absolutely right; he was terrible and I've never seen a wide receiver play so badly with Aaron Rodgers, at least one with so many targets. Thinking historically, is there a wide receiver you could compare to him to that played as badly as Adams played last season who went on to have at least a good career?"
I checked our Similarity Scores for wide receivers who put up similar numbers to Adams in the first two years of their careers and found a surprising number of guys who turned out OK. Bobby Engram topped 900 yards in his third and fourth seasons, and finally went over 1,000 at age 34 in Seattle. Pittsburgh's Charles Johnson went over a thousand yards in his third year. Cincinnati's Carl Pickens topped a thousand yards four times in five seasons starting in Year 3.

Of course, all of those players started their careers in the 1990s, when numbers were very different. More recent wideouts similar to Adams include long list of first-round busts: Bryant Johnson, Josh Reed, Troy Williamson, Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Cordarrelle Patterson.

So two seasons in, the best-case scenario for Adams appears to be "productive complementary wideout," and the worst-case scenario is …well, more seasons like 2015.

Will Julius Peppers Play For The Packers In 2016?

The Green Bay Packers should be very happy to have LB Julius Peppers back in 2016. Despite his recent Pro Bowl appearance, Peppers didn't have as much impact in 2015 as he did in 2014 but it's hard to see that as the sign of his imminent decline.

While his sack total was up (10.5 in 2015 from 7 in 2014) several other stats were down, but his 2014 and 2015 seasons are both comparable to past seasons stretching back to his time with the Panthers and Bears. His career stats are about as consistent from season-to-season as any player you're likely to find, and he's only missed 2 games since 2002! Though he just turned 36 years old, an age that should place major question marks on any non-QB/non-kicker, Peppers is an amazing, consistent star who is an exception to those rules.

So the fact that Adam Schefter wrote a line in his most recent column that Peppers may have already played his final NFL game is big concern.

NFL's five biggest off-season storylines:https://t.co/WkeAeqs0FF

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 4, 2016

It's a little surprising to read that from Schefter when there was a different report earlier this week suggesting that Peppers would play again in 2016 even if the Packers release him.

Just looking at Peppers by himself, he's a still a great player and worth the $8 million cap charge he'll cost next season. The lone advantage in releasing him now would be to use that cap space on a younger player in free agency, but I generally hate free agency and his release would also cost them a $2.5 million cap charge in dead money. The Packers currently have around $21 million in cap space so creating cap space is not a big need.

But when you look at the state of the roster without Peppers, his release would leave their roster without any quality linebackers other than Clay Matthews. Nick Perry and Mike Neal are both unrestricted free agents, and neither one is a priority to re-sign. Who knows how Sam Barrington will be after missing almost the entire 2015 season with injury. Some combination of Jake Ryan, Joe Thomas and Nate Palmer might be useful as a backup (maybe Ryan has potential next season as a starter) but that's a thin bench. Pro Football Focus listed linebacker as the Packers' number one need this offseason, and despite the recent report that coach Mike McCarthy is "fed-up" with the Packers' approach in free agency, it's unlikely that GM Ted Thompson will be aggressive in that area. It'll be important to keep valuable linebackers like Peppers, and draft a couple more options this April too.

McCarthy "agrees with the intent" of Burnett's title game slide

Packers head coach Mike McCarthy probably doesn't like that Morgan Burnett slid on his NFC Championship Game interception, but he is still okay with it. 

In an article recently published by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, McCarthy said he "agrees with the intent" of Burnett's decision, which appeared to end the contest at the time. 

Taking place with just over five minutes on the clock, Burnett's now-infamous takeaway likely would have set up a long touchdown if the Packers safety had kept running, not that it was all his fault. 

Green Bay DE Julius Peppers could be seen giving Burnett the "go-down" signal on the play, so he is at least partially to blame for the mistake. Still, it's not like you could really point to it as the sole reason for the loss, as the Packers had plenty of opportunities afterwards to pull away. 

Packers Name 2014 Playoff Captains, Three Weeks Before Postseason Even Starts

It's January in Green Bay, before it's even Christmas.

That's the message the Packers appear to be sending with today's announcement of their 2014 playoff captains, in spite of the fact they are yet to clinch a Wild Card Berth and the postseason won't start for another three weeks. 

According to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky, their captains on offense will be Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, while the defense is set to be represented by Julius Peppers and Morgan Burnett and the special teams Randall Cobb and Jarret Bush. 

Sort of a strange story here, but since Nelson apparently thinks it's already playoff time, I guess it's understandable. Not to mention, it'll take a lot for the Packers to miss at this point, seeing as they are currently 10-4.

Peppers Defends Defensive Struggles After Win Over Falcons: We Got the Win

The Packers' defense gave up 465 total yards in Monday night's win, but Julius Peppers seems to only care about just that: it was a win.

“That’s the most important thing, getting the win. There were obviously a lot of things we could have done better, but at the end of the day, you play to win,” Peppers told ESPN Wisconsin's Jason Wilde after the victory. “It’s good. We won. That’s what we wanted to do – get the win. So it’s on to next weekend."

Next weekend the Packers visit the Bills, so it's not like this isn't still something to be concerned about.

The Ongoing Musical Chairs At Linebacker

The linebacker core is the one unit that always seems to be undergoing some sort of shuffle. While Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews have excelled this season, it's been terrible times for Brad Jones, Mike Neal and A.J. Hawk.

Top photos from Sunday's #Packers win: http://t.co/YLxg3qvMq9 pic.twitter.com/ZD6nlgNeiB
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 24, 2014

In my recap of the win over the Vikings, I wrote that it was a quiet game for Matthews, who seemed a step slow as he played and practices through a groin injury. It looks like he's feeling better now, but in case his groin injury remains a problem, they'll need DE Mike Daniels and Peppers to make plays against the Patriots.

According to the ESPN playing time breakdown, rookie Jayrone Elliott was given some meaningful snaps for only the second time this season, without making much of an impact one way or another. Unfortunately he was only taking away snaps from Matthews outside, as Neal played as many snaps (59) as he's played in any game this season and received his worst game grade of the season from Pro Football Focus. Hopefully Nick Perry feels better this week and can take away snaps from Neal.

It was interesting that Brad Jones played his first meaningful snaps (13) on defense since a terrible performance against the Dolphins a few weeks ago. Against the Vikings, he received a slight positive grade from Pro Football Focus, which is a massive improvement for him. I'm not expecting too much from Hawk, but he's looking slow in coverage against the tight end, and it's forced them to reconsider Jones, who has the potential to be their best linebacker in coverage though he's been awful this season. The Patriots rely heavily on their tight ends and the Vikings game might be a prelude to a bigger role for Jones next week.

Rodgers Making Excuses For Peppers After He Dropped Touchdown Pass

In a surprising turn of events, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is making excuses for teammate Julius Peppers' dropping of a touchdown pass in yesterday's first quarter.

"It was a little harder than maybe he was expecting," Rodgers told ESPN.com of the play, in which the ball appeared to hit Peppers right in the numbers. "Yeah, he ran a good route and got his chest on it. Pep's a talented guy. We've ran that play at practice a number of times, and he's come down with it. That one was probably a little faster than he was used to." 

So there you have it guys. Apparently the speed of a throw cancels out its accuracy.

Reaction: Saints Snap Packers Winning Streak

My takeaways from the Packers' 44-23 loss to the Saints yesterday, their first since Week 3:

1. Mike McCarthy Needs to Stop Being Dumb:

There's just no way to sugarcoat it. Putting in Julius Peppers to drop a pass Jordy Nelson would've made in his sleep and onside kicking in the first quarter were clearly not good decisions. 

2. The Bad Defense is Back:

Just in case you actually thought the elusive "solid defense" had arrived.

3. This is Still Just One Game:

No reason to panic. They'll bounce back for sure.

Leave your thoughts below if you disagree with any of my points.

Peppers Fined For Wearing Unauthorized Shoes

Packers Defensive End Julius Peppers has been fined for apparently wearing unauthorized shoes at certain games this season, ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reports. 

According to Demovsky, Peppers has worn Nike Air Jordans this year, yet apparently doesn't know which pair got him in trouble.

"I think I saw a letter [from the league office] in my locker, but I didn't even really [look at] it," Peppers said. 

The exact amount Peppers will pay has not yet been revealed. Nonetheless, since this violation seems to be relatively minor I'd imagine he won't have to cough up that much cash, as this whole situation just doesn't appear to be that serious.

Reaction: Packers Blowout Vikings in Week 5

My takeaways from the Packers' 42-10 win over the Vikings last night:

1. Eddie Lacy is Back:

Granted, he wasn't facing a great defense, but still, Lacy's two-touchdown, 105-yard performance was definitely his best of the year.

2. Julius Peppers is Pretty Good:

Peppers' 49-yard Pick Six in the second quarter, his first interception as a Packer, made him the first player in league history with 100 sacks and 10 interceptions, so yes, I guess you could say his day went well too. 

3. Minor History was Interestingly Made: 

Though it didn't feel like much of a record-setter, the 32-point victory for the Pack was actually the second biggest blowout in Thursday Night history, trailing only the Falcons' 42-point one over the Buccaneers two weeks ago.

Notes from Packers' 31-21 Win Over the Raiders

Some notes from the Packers' 31-21 win tonight over the Raiders:

Aaron Rodgers. During his two quarter performance, Rodgers wasn't really as sharp as usual, but still, he did do pretty well overall, completing 9 of his 20 passes for 139 yards and 2 TDs.

Dajuan Harris. Harris easily led the Pack in rushing, racking up 56 yards on 12 carries for a solid 4.7-per-play average.

Richard Rodgers. Green Bay's other guy named Rodgers didn't actually do much, but since he did still collect 2 receptions and 40 yards it seems reasonable to name him the TE of the night. 

Julius Peppers. So far this preseason, Peppers hasn't been as sharp as the Pack would like, something that definitely changed in this evening's W, with Peppers impressively recording 3 tackles and a sack. 

Five Key Things To Watch In Camp: Number 1 - Julius Peppers and the Defense

Julius Peppers comes to Green Bay as one of the biggest free agent signings in GM Ted Thompson's tenure, and he is the face of the new look defense Dom Capers is bringing to the Packers in 2014. While everyone will be watching to see how many sacks he records, he's only going to succeed if Capers's new defense is a hit.

What has #Packers DT Mike Daniels learned from new teammate Julius Peppers? Watch: http://t.co/ZuyBqfzYQv pic.twitter.com/bZROVqQDyv
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) July 8, 2014

If you look at the defensive front seven, which is where the new defensive look should be obvious, the roster is mostly the same as it was in 2013. Peppers is on board, along with rookies DE Khyri Thornton and LB Carl Bradford, but the rookies might barely play in the early goings. The only mountain on the line remaining is NT B.J. Raji (gone are Pickett and Jolly) and the Packers could frequently line up with only two 300 lb. lineman and an army of linebackers and defensive backs behind them. That formation will be easier to run against, but it'll be hard for a receiver to find any room in coverage.

Capers described the defense as "less volume, more packages" which actually brings some simplicity to the defense. The personnel on the field will "dictate the defense" instead of going with the same personnel group and asking them to do different things. I expect that means he'll be coaching more to his players' strengths.

So Peppers might be playing primarily at linebacker, but he's still listed as a LB/DE, so there should be packages that line him up at defensive end. It's probably the same role they had in mind for Mike Neal last season, but injuries forced Neal to play at linebacker most of the time. Asking Nick Perry to play the same role wouldn't be a bad idea either because he's never looked great dropping back into coverage.

We should be seeing more players rotating on and off the field in 2014, and maybe they'll keep an extra defensive end and linebacker on the roster. However, the disappointing thing is that we might not see what this new defense looks like until the regular season. The Packers have already coached the players on how these new packages work during OTAs, but there's no incentive to give the rest of the NFL an early look during the preseason. Maybe a few of them will be shown, but the Packers will probably play nothing other than their base defense as they evaluate some of the fringe roster candidates during the bulk of the preseason games.

While everyone will be watching Peppers and the new look defense this season, unfortunately neither of them should be seen much during the preseason games.

Sitton: "We're a Very Hungry Team Right Now"

In an article recently published by the Pensacola News Journal, Packers Offensive Guard Josh Sitton talked about how "hungry" the team is right now after failing to reach the Divisional Playoffs last season. 

"We're a very hungry team right now," Sitton said. "I think we'll do a few different things with our defense. We have a few new pieces on defense, so I think there's going to be a big jump and big improvement on our defense."

Among those new pieces are Free Agent Signing Julius Peppers and first round draft pick Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, two guys who may just change Green Bay's future in the sense Sitton seems to be referring.

Peppers: "I Haven't Really Played With A Guy Like Clay"

Julius Peppers has had a long, successful NFL career, which makes him a little unique. He was the top pass rusher on the Carolina Panthers in his rookie season (2002), and he was the Bears' top pass rusher last season too. Not a lot of players can stake that claim. So 2014 will look a lot different for him; he's no longer the best pass rusher on his team.

06/09/14 Watching and waiting: Clay Matthews is excited about what he and Julius Peppers can accomplish togeth... http://t.co/VgMUrbsQpL
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) June 10, 2014

He's played with a lot of great defensive teammates in Carolina and Chicago, but he hasn't often played alongside another great pass rusher. Peppers told Jason Wilde that former DE Mike Rucker was a "threat" but not "dominant". DE Charles Johnson was Peppers' teammate in Carolina from 2007-2009, but Johnson only started four games combined in those three seasons. Probably his best pass rushing teammate during his time in Chicago was DT Henry Melton, who's never tallied double digit sacks in a season. Of those three players, the only one who comes close to Matthews is Rucker, he recorded double digit sacks in 2002 and 2003 (and made the Pro Bowl in 2003) before fading into his 30s.

While Peppers might be starting to fade (he had a negative pass rusher grade in 2013 according to Pro Football Focus, but so did nearly every Bears defender last season, which makes their problems look like more than just Peppers) Matthews just turned 28 and should be entering the prime of his career (if he can stay healthy). For comparison, Peppers recorded 14.5 sacks in 2008 (his age 28 season) and made his fourth Pro Bowl, which could easily be a 2014 projection for Matthews. Peppers is going to be playing alongside a pass rusher who is effectively a younger version of himself, and that's clearly never happened to him before.

Peppers Excited To Play Alongside Matthews

New Packers Defensive End Julius Peppers is excited to play alongside Clay Matthews when the 2014 season gets underway, the veteran recently revealed to ESPN Wisconsin's Jason Wilde.

In his eyes, Peppers has never played with someone dominant on the other side, making him eager to see what the two of them can do.

Matthews, who missed some time last year with a recurring thumb injury, hasn't done a ton recently, although having Peppers double teamed should help him improve his stats over the next three seasons.

The Packers' first preseason game is currently scheduled for August 7-10 in Tennessee. 

Packers OTA: First Look at Some of the New Guys

The Packers are finishing up their May OTAs (three days of practice) on Friday. There isn't too much for the fans during these sessions. Any player who's coming off surgery (such as Clay Matthews) is sitting out as a precaution. However, there is something to be learned about who might be the starters.

On ESPN, I saw the coaches working Julius Peppers out at linebacker, having him drop back into pass coverage (he might have never done that before in his career). I've been assuming Peppers will be primarily a lineman and only occasionally a linebacker, but maybe the team is sincere about making him switch to linebacker. Having that added pass rusher as a threat or decoy still seems more valuable to them than the coverage a true linebacker might provide. Micah Hyde got the starting nod at safety while J.C. Tretter was first in line at center. Maybe both Hyde and Tretter will be challenged by rookies (Clinton-Dix in particular), but usually I'd expect the player starting at OTAs to be the starter in Week 1.

One more, of the #Packers RBs, including @Lil_Eazy_Ana_42, tossing medicine balls at OTAs: pic.twitter.com/G1V257Ynj3
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) May 30, 2014

And medicine ball drills! A classic.

Packers GM Thompson sees "no evidence of any decline" in Peppers' play

Packers GM Ted Thompson sees "no evidence of any decline" in DE Julius Peppers' play, the 61-year old recently told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tyler Dunne. Peppers, an 8-time Pro Bowler, signed a 3-year, $30 million deal with Green Bay March 15, officially ending his time as a rival. 

"Well, 34 is not so old," Thompson said. "Not for some of us. There’s no evidence of any decline in his play, in our opinion. He still has the same athletic traits that he had coming out. He’s had a remarkable history in the NFL in terms of durability. We’re looking forward to it. I think he is, too."

During his four seasons in Chicago, Peppers averaged a solid 35 annual tackles, a slight decline from the 39 he averaged during his time with the Panthers from 2002-2009. Technically something not so great, but still, considering that Green Bay's two main DEs in 2014, Johnny Jolly and B.J. Raji, collected just 21 and 17 tackles respectively this guy is definitely an upgrade. 

And remember, it's not like the Packers need a perfect defense to win this year. They already have arguably the league's best offense, so, in my opinion, a defense ranked somewhere in the middle of the league would be more than enough to help them collect 13+ victories. 

Matthews "probably won't be too heavily involved" in offseason OTAs

Packers LB Clay Matthews "probably won't be too heavily involved" in the team's offseason OTAs, #52 recently told USA Today. Apparently, his thumb is still not completely healed, making the risk of having him practice not worth taking. 

In the very next question, Matthews did say that he'll be ready for the late-Summer training camp, so yea, I guess this whole thing isn't that bad. If he's still beat up, making him participate in relatively minor drills is pretty worthless, especially since the duo of he and DE Julius Peppers will dominate this fall if they can just stay healthy.

Does the Julius Peppers signing make the Packers "championship-caliber?"

While the recent signing of DE Julius Peppers was obviously big, whether or not it will make the Packers title-contenders this season is still up for debate. Peppers is good, but will he actually bring the team back to their 2011 selves? DB Jarret Bush apparently thinks so.

"I think J.P., pound-for-pound, is one of the most athletic athletes in the league right now," Bush told the Green Bay Press Gazette. "I think he's going to give teams a lot of trouble, especially with Clay (Matthews), Nick Perry, Mike Neal and Mike Daniels. ... They can't just double Clay anymore, He's going to wreak havoc over there. I think we'll be a championship-caliber team."

It's good to see the confidence here, but really, "championship-caliber"? That's a little rash, wouldn't you say so?