Monday, May 01, 2017

Packers NFL Draft 2017: Defense Early, Offense Late

Do you think the Green Bay Packers had some issues to address on defense? They used their top 4 picks on defensive players before taking some flyers on 6 straight offensive players.
After trading out of the 1st round (I'll get to that later) they filled a glaring and obvious need by selecting Washington CB Kevin King with the 1st pick of the 2nd round (33rd overall). He's fast (4.43 40 time) and tall (6'3") and could step into an immediate need at outside corner. He'll need some time to adjust to the speed of the NFL, but the competition ahead of him is only CB Damarious Randall and CB Davon House. While starting him as a rookie is not an ideal plan, he could be ahead of those two sooner rather than later.

They certainly need defensive backs so selecting another one at the end of the 2nd round (61st overall) in N.C. State FS Josh Jones is no surprise, but it seemed more likely that they would have chosen another corner who could compete outside. Maybe they see Jones as a DB who could either be a safety or a corner and play various roles like DB Micah Hyde, though Jones seems more like FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix than Hyde. It's not exactly clear what role they have in mind for him. Do the Packers want to play more two-deep safety with Clinton-Dix and Jones in centerfield? The scouting report describes Jones as an aggressive hitter (maybe too aggressive) so maybe he'll take over SS Morgan Burnett's role and Burnett will play more linebacker in 2017? He'll provide depth, which is welcomed, but his role is yet to be seen.

This didn't seem like the year to go after defensive lineman, but in the 3rd round (93rd overall) they selected Auburn DT Montravius Adams. This was a weak defensive line class so a prospect at the end of the 3rd round is going to have some flaws (there are concerns about his motor and technique according to NFL.com). He's about the same size and height (6-4, 304 lbs.) as DT Letroy Guion, who's suspended for the 1st four games of 2017, so Adams fills an immediate need to replace Guion in the rotation temporarily and maybe permanently.

My favorite pick in the draft is their first 4th round pick, the 1st pick of the 4th round, Wisconsin LB Vince Biegel. A former Badger is always a pleasant surprise, and Biegel gives them another versatile LB who could be used inside like LB Jake Ryan or outside like LB Kyler Fackrell. He can rush the passer, play the run, or be asked to drop back in coverage. He fills a need because they let OLB Datone Jones leave in free agency. But none of that makes this my favorite pick. He's basically a free player in the middle of the draft, when there are still quality prospects on the board. The Browns have a million picks in 2017 and 2018 and they cashed in a little to move up a few spots into the late first round to draft a toolsy, project TE who the Packers would have never selected. They probably would have just selected King if the Browns hadn't called them. But GM Ted Thompson moved down a few spots (and saved some money on King's rookie contract as an early 2nd rounder vs. a late 1st rounder) which alone would have been worth it. But in addition, he negotiates for the top pick in the 4th round to pick up a solid player (Biegel) who could have been selected a round or two earlier.  While some teams looked like clowns (Bears) and handed away picks that they can't afford to lose, the Packers are picking up free talent (Biegel) while saving some money on their top pick. Not all of these selections will work out, but Thompson won the draft process on Thursday.

Onto the offense! The first 4 rounds are the most important, so it's obvious (and appropriate) that the Packers invested most of their draft capital to help the defense. But they gave a shot in the arm to the offense, which hadn't gotten much help in the 2016 draft, while addressing their most uncertain position on offense (running back). But don't get too excited, it's more likely that there are a lot of potential practice squad players here and not future starters.

With their own 4th round pick (134th overall) they selected BYU RB Jamaal Williams to replace Eddie Lacy in the role of running hard into the heart of the defense. He's not the biggest guy (6-0, 212 lbs.) but he'll earn a roster spot to run hard in-between the tackles.

With their 1st pick in the 5th round (175th overall) they drafted another former Big 10 receiver with size and not a lot of speed in Purdue WR DeAngelo Yancey, who seems similar to WR Geronimo Allison. Unless you're still keeping the dream alive that WR Jeff Janis or WR Jared Abbrederis will work out, or that WR Trevor Davis's tendency to drop punts is temporary, it seems like an open competition for the 4th and 5th WR spots (assuming Ty Montgomery is a running back now). Yancey could be in the mix or he could be trying to impress for a spot on the practice squad.

Hey another running back with Texas-El Paso's Aaron Jones in the 5th round at 182nd overall. He was a top performer in several combine drills, including the 3 cone drill. At 5-9, he's the undersized 3rd down back, great athlete to platoon with their earlier selection of Jamaal Williams who would be the bruising, early down back.

With their 6th round selection, 212th overall, it's OL Kofi Amichia from South Florida, who played tackle in college but should move inside in the pros. There's no roster spot for him after they signed Jahri Evans so he'll have to prove he deserves more time to develop on the practice squad.

There were rumors at the NFL combine that the Packers were interested in drafting multiple running backs and they didn't disappoint. Everything I wrote above about the great job they did at creating free draft picks applies here again (to a much, much lesser extent). They dropped back a few spots in the 5th round, selected the receiver they probably wanted anyway (Yancey) and received a free draft pick from the Broncos for their trouble. A 7th round pick, No. 238 overall, Utah St. RB Devante Mays isn't as big a prize as Biegel, and he appears to have trouble staying healthy, but he's got talent and they get to take a closer look at him instead of hoping he'll be available as an undrafted free agent.

Finally is LSU WR Malachi Dupre (247th overall) who's another receiver with some size (6-2, 196 lbs.) and a lack of speed. Still, this is a good spot for Dupre who could earn himself a roster or practice squad spot with a strong preseason and a wide open competition for the 4th and 5th WR spots.

This draft class turned out bigger than expected because some teams just can't ignore that analytics say don't trade up and GM Ted Thompson can take advantage of them in their panic. And they took players at all their positions of need. There's obviously no way to know who are busts at this point, but they didn't unnecessarily reach for any players and won a couple of draft trades, which is about as good as can be expected immediately after draft weekend.