Monday, December 04, 2017

Packers Win In OT over Bucs, 26-20

This was not the game I expected from the Green Bay Packers. The Buccaneers entered this game with an offense that couldn't run the ball and couldn't stop the pass, so of course the Packers allowed a 100 yard rushing game to Peyton Barber (which more than doubled his total yards rushing for the season) and QB Brett Hundley was held to under 100 yards passing.
I expected more from Hundley after he had a career game last week against the Steelers. Instead, he stunk it up against a terrible pass defense. Even though he probably faced as little pressure in this game as any he's started this season. At least he knew to run when the play broke down, which led to 66 yards rushing for the game including multiple runs for 1st downs. His legs were more valuable than his arms. Somehow the Packers converted 42% of their 3rd down attempts while not being able to throw the ball.

The beginning of the end for Hundley happened during their first drive. He looked pretty good at first, but then he missed Geronimo Allison for a wide open touchdown in the corner of the end zone and he never got his accuracy back. He only threw downfield a couple more times during the game, one of which was picked off, and the only reason his other downfield passes weren't picked off was because he usually threw them out of bounds. Mike McCarthy almost exclusively called screen passes the rest of the game, which was probably for the best but it left the offense dead for most of the second quarter and second half. They did manage to wake up to tie the game at the end of the 4th quarter, and in OT, because of a big dose of Hundley, Williams and Jones running (not Hundley passing).

At least the ground game was great. The Buccaneers are actually decent against the run this season, but they were missing a couple D-lineman and only Bucs' DT Gerald McCoy was much of a threat (he recorded 2 of their 4 tackles for a loss in this game). RB Jamaal Williams showed the downfield running that led them to selecting him in the 4th round, but he still doesn't have the home run ability that RB Aaron Jones showed on his only carry of the game, in OT when ran for the winning touchdown.
The Buccaneers line is a mess and the Packer pass rush woke up for the first time in a while with seven sacks and fumble recovery off one of them for a touchdown. But the Bucs ran the ball (though they shouldn't have been able to) and they killed them on screen passes (mostly to Barber, who led the Bucs in rushing and receiving).

In past seasons, I've looked at the Packers' defense and thought they really need to shore up one or two areas and it would make everything better. But now, no one area is especially terrible but no one area is especially good either. With the exception of their starting defensive tackles, they can't do much better up front than Clark and Daniels, they could stand to upgrade at every other position. Not that there isn't a role for all of their starters on the team (or in the NFL) but every position could use someone pushing them for a starting job. They've managed to turn a flawed defense into a uniformly below average unit.

I've been shocked that DC Dom Capers has kept his job every year since the end of the 2013 season (that defense was awful, and a couple years removed from his truly great 2010 season defense) but this feels like the end of the line. There's been no major Nick Collins or Sam Shields injury to point at as a reason why next season will be better. This defense is just not good enough as a whole.

I haven't been expecting a playoff run ever since it was apparent that Hundley was not ready to play (I'll give him a pass for his terrible relief appearance in Minneapolis but he's looked bad since his first start against the Saints). All I've wanted was for them to compete. But when they win without Aaron Rodgers (Bears, Buccaneers) it's against terrible teams in an ugly fashion. As bad as Hundley looks, he's had some good moments (Steelers game) but the defense has looked bad in one way or another in every game.

As for the rest of the season, they should beat the Browns (Kizer is one of the few QBs in the league worse than Hundley) and then they might be lucky to win one more game (at Carolina, home vs. Vikings, at Detroit) if they don't have Aaron Rodgers.

If they do have Aaron Rodgers, that would at least give them a chance though I don't see how the Vikings' offense doesn't carve up the Packers D at this point and I'd rather not see Rodgers play in a collarbone game rematch this season. At best, that's 9 wins, if Rodgers is back this season. I'd consider sitting him no matter what but it's going to be hard (impossible?) to keep him off the field if the doctors clear him to play. Even if they run the table, 10 wins might not be enough this season for the Wild Card. There are a lot of guys playing/coaching for their jobs and they're not going to give up on this season, as unlikely as the playoffs seem. I should probably just forget about all this talk and just hope they don't find someway to lose to the Browns next week.

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