Packers Release WR Jordy Nelson, Sign Graham and Wilkerson

On a normal day, I'd have a lot to say about two significant free agent signings by the Green Bay Packers, but the release of WR Jordy Nelson hits hard:

#Packers release WR Jordy Nelson: https://t.co/hPO2YLNw2z pic.twitter.com/4jTKhOowrn

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) March 13, 2018

The writing was on the wall a couple months ago when WR Davante Adams was re-signed. Three of the highest paid players on the team were wide receivers and that's not the way to build a balanced roster.

Nelson vanished most of last season, along with the rest of the offense, once QB Aaron Rodgers was injured. But Jordy really disappeared, and it can't all be blamed on Brett Hundley. In 2013, the previous time Rodgers broke his collarbone, Jordy was the only player who kept up the pace alongside a collection of backup QBs and finished with over 1,300 yards. A few years later, and one serious knee injury later, he's not the same receiver who can play like that without his star quarterback.

What really hurts is that they don't have a replacement. Adams is a good starter but he's no Jordy. This makes it harder for the offense to improve on last season.

But they did do something they had to do - find a receiving TE:

The Packers' deal for Jimmy Graham pays $30 million over three years, according to @RapSheet. Graham will earn $22 million of that amount over the first two years of the deal.

— Jason B. Hirschhorn (@by_JBH) March 14, 2018

It's too much money and he'll be no better than the third receiving option, but they had to have a better receiving TE. Lance Kendricks was a big disappointment, one of the few players in the league last season that did not benefit from getting away from Jeff Fisher. They needed a TE who could do some damage in the passing game, and Graham might be a major threat in the red zone. Also, the TE market has gone crazy ($8 million per season is the going rate for a Trey Burton these days) and this is just what a guy like Graham costs.

And though he's not a cornerback, the Packers also found someone to play defense:

Mo Wilkerson's deal with the #Packers is one year, $5 million plus $3M in incentives, source said.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 14, 2018

I'm not super excited about bringing in a guy who couldn't be ran out of town fast enough by the Jets.

I graded 3-4 DEs for B/R this year. Not sure I've seen any NFL player take plays off like Wilkerson did for stretches. I also won't pretend that he wasn't great up until like two years ago. Pettine is worth his title if he gets Wilkerson back to who he was

— right of first refusal Justo (@JuMosq) March 14, 2018

The talent and health still appear to be there, and reuniting with DC Mike Pettine might help. There's no 2019 salary cap risk on a one-year deal, if this doesn't work out, and they'll have Dean Lowry as a backup in 2018 if needed. He provides upside but there's only so many moves they can take in free agency and they just used up $5 million of it on Mo. I hope it works out.

Packers Traded a Starting Cornerback for a Backup Quarterback

I was shaking my head when I read what the Green Bay Packers had done, the first major transaction of the GM Brian Gutekunst era.

This is significant: The #Packers not only picked up QB DeShone Kizer in their trade of Damarious Randall, but they also moved up in the 4th and 5th rounds, I’m told. They swap 4th rounders with the #Browns and then 5th rounders, too. Browns move back twice, GB comes up.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 10, 2018

But I did want to point out the swap of picks. It's not a huge get, moving up a dozen spots in those two rounds, but it's a nifty addition. It's nice to get to the good news first before writing about the bad.

Damarious Randall. The Packers were already weak at cornerback with only two starting quality CBs, and now their down to one. Quinten Rollins still exists and if healthy he would be their starter alongside Kevin King, however, Rollins is never healthy and he's never been good either. He's potentially the best from a number of bad options. Losing Randall makes the 2018 Packers a lot weaker, so far.

I'd like to think this trade means they intend to sign a free agent or two, but no one yet knows Gutekunst's tendencies and the Packers don't have a ton of cap space (if they keep Nelson and Cobb). Maybe this is the start of a bunch of trades by the new GM? Right now, all I expect them to do is draft a couple more rookies and hope for the best, which isn't going to work. They need a veteran, not just another Davon House re-signing, and it doesn't look like that can or will happen.

From a positional standpoint, this trade is terrible. But after Randall walked out on his team during their game in Chicago, I had been expecting he would be released during the season or traded for nothing at the end of the season. And maybe the coaches hated him too. So what I expected months ago came to happen, which is fine if I ignore that Randall finished the 2017 season strong and looks like a starter now.

Maybe there is good reason to expect a slide from him in 2018 because he has been an inconsistent player his entire career. After a great start to his rookie season, he faded down the stretch and might have outright lost them a playoff game in Phoenix. The next season was a disaster, maybe to do with injuries. His third season, 2017, was a roller coaster. He had one more cheap year on his rookie contract, a tough decision looming on his 5th year option, and then a potentially bad decision in his contract year with a risky new contract. I wouldn't have been disappointed if they let him walk in two years. At least he'd be their best option in 2018 alongside King while they work on grooming his replacement.

Maybe I would feel better about this trade if the main piece in return wasn't filling a need that was several spots down on their to-do list: find a better back-up quarterback. Instead they found Brett Hundley 2.0:

Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer show up to #Packers training camp. pic.twitter.com/dSqYYbRSUn

— Ross Read (@RossRead) March 9, 2018

If any QB in 2017 was similar to Hundley, it was Kizer. He's got a lot of potential and upside, but he's always seemed like an underachiever, which is a description I'd apply to Hundley too. All backups are inconsistent (otherwise they'd probably be starting somewhere), Nick Foles looked like a hot mess at the end of the 2017 regular season before winning a Super Bowl MVP. Right now I don't trust Kizer to be any better if needed to start in 2018 then Hundley. Kizer might not even beat Hundley out next season. I'd rather they'd gotten a pick for Randall than a backup QB who they might never use and might underachieve as much as Hundley.

In the end, this trade isn't a disaster because Randall was too inconsistent to merit a new contract in two years and they were going to have to move on anyway. But there are a lot of ways to find a new backup quarterback that don't involve trading away one of your starters. In 2020, this trade should look better but it's a step back in 2018.