Showing posts with label Jordy Nelson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jordy Nelson. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Packers Release WR Jordy Nelson, Sign Graham and Wilkerson

On a normal day, I'd have a lot to say about two significant free agent signings by the Green Bay Packers, but the release of WR Jordy Nelson hits hard:
The writing was on the wall a couple months ago when WR Davante Adams was re-signed. Three of the highest paid players on the team were wide receivers and that's not the way to build a balanced roster.

Nelson vanished most of last season, along with the rest of the offense, once QB Aaron Rodgers was injured. But Jordy really disappeared, and it can't all be blamed on Brett Hundley. In 2013, the previous time Rodgers broke his collarbone, Jordy was the only player who kept up the pace alongside a collection of backup QBs and finished with over 1,300 yards. A few years later, and one serious knee injury later, he's not the same receiver who can play like that without his star quarterback.

What really hurts is that they don't have a replacement. Adams is a good starter but he's no Jordy. This makes it harder for the offense to improve on last season.

But they did do something they had to do - find a receiving TE:
It's too much money and he'll be no better than the third receiving option, but they had to have a better receiving TE. Lance Kendricks was a big disappointment, one of the few players in the league last season that did not benefit from getting away from Jeff Fisher. They needed a TE who could do some damage in the passing game, and Graham might be a major threat in the red zone. Also, the TE market has gone crazy ($8 million per season is the going rate for a Trey Burton these days) and this is just what a guy like Graham costs.

And though he's not a cornerback, the Packers also found someone to play defense:
I'm not super excited about bringing in a guy who couldn't be ran out of town fast enough by the Jets.
The talent and health still appear to be there, and reuniting with DC Mike Pettine might help. There's no 2019 salary cap risk on a one-year deal, if this doesn't work out, and they'll have Dean Lowry as a backup in 2018 if needed. He provides upside but there's only so many moves they can take in free agency and they just used up $5 million of it on Mo. I hope it works out.

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

What Are The Packers Like Without Jordy Nelson?

So the real bad news from after the Green Bay Packers' victory over the Giants:
WR Jordy Nelson is the No. 3 ranked receiver according to Football Outsiders and led the NFL with 14 touchdowns. What's more impressive is that most of his production came during "run the table" time. He was so much better in the latter part of the season, and there's no way they're better without him than with him.

The good news is that the Packers did score 38 points against the Giants last weekend without him. But the bad news is that the offense fell off a cliff in 2015 without him. Assuming he cannot play in Dallas, the offense should look like they did in the 2nd half against the Giants instead of the struggling 2015 unit.

WR Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. Without Nelson in 2015, both receivers struggled and Adams was a disaster. But 2016 is a different season for Adams. Though he's far from a perfect receiver (he's dropped three TD passes over the past few games) he's much better playing the role of a short(er) route runner. Cobb looked like a different man after having taken a couple weeks off to rest and playing exclusively in the slot against an over-matched nickel corner.

WR Geronimo Allison. If he's dropped a pass this season, I don't remember it. He's like the anti-Adams, and he's taken over the role the Packers seemed to foist onto Adams in 2015 as a deep threat. He doesn't draw a lot of attention in coverage and he's a good route runner (without a lot of speed). He'll kind of take over the James Jones role from last season.

TE Jared Cook. What a difference he's made. When Nelson was out last season, I expected the Packers would lean heavily on Eddie Lacy and the tight end position to make up some of the production. But Lacy struggled with his weight in 2015 and TE Richard Rodgers just can't do too much on offense. But Cook can truly replace some of what Nelson provided and he's been a major part of the "run the table" offense.

RB Ty Montgomery. Somehow he avoided destroying all the ligaments in his knee when he got twisted up like a pretzel in the 2nd half against the Giants, so he's still a factor. He's what I hoped Lacy could have been as a rushing threat and a receiver out of the backfield.

RB Christine Michael. Oh, the burst through the line. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the field (he's not better than Montgomery) but when he finds a running lane, he explodes through it. He'll only get a few touches, but he'll be a home run threat when it happens.

As much as I'll miss seeing Nelson in Dallas (assuming that's the case), the additions of Cook, Montgomery and Michael make up for it in ways that the Packers didn't have on their roster in 2015 (Montgomery was out most of the 2015 season).

Monday, September 12, 2016

Packers (1-0) Beat The Jaguars in Jacksonville, 27-23

It wasn't the easiest win, as the Green Bay Packers fell behind in the first half, re-took the lead before halftime, and were able to match field goals with the Jaguars in the second half to hold onto the win. As I was watching it, I was thinking about how it would have been a huge let down to lose to an 11 loss team in what might be their easiest road game of 2016. But the Jaguars are better now and one game isn't going to make or break their season.

An early INT by Blake Bortles turned out to be his only turnover of the game, and some big pass plays to Allen Hurns, Marcedes Lewis, and Julius Thomas led their offense. Anyone who plays fantasy football knows the Jaguars have some legitimate offensive weapons. Also the Jaguars have spent a lot of money on their defense in free agency (mostly to Malik Jackson) and used a Top 5 draft pick on Jalen Ramsey (who's feeling a bit cocky at the moment). If they had put more pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers (zero sacks) then they might have had a shot at shutting down the Packers' offense. But they couldn't stop Eddie Lacy (4.4 ypc) and Rodgers finished with the 4th highest QBR in Week 1 (so far).
Packers offense: So above is one of the plays that'll be on the short list for plays of 2016. His offensive line played great, though they would have been even better with former LG Josh Sitton. Bob McGinn had a great article about how the front office blew it with Sitton, though his loss is still not going to be a season changing mistake. His replacement, LG Lane Taylor, probably had the lowest grade of their five lineman according to PFF by surrendering three QB hurries (I recall one play when ILB Paul Posluszny ran right past Taylor) but his run blocking appeared strong and he didn't allow a sack.

WR Jordy Nelson was back, and Rodgers again focused in on his top three receivers. This time it was Davante Adams joining Nelson and Cobb, and those three were targeted on 24 of his 33 attempts (73%). It was a big surprise that TE Jared Cook was only targeted twice, and he might have been a help early in the game when Rodgers struggled to get the ball to Nelson and Adams (3 straight punts in the first half). Rodgers barely played this preseason, Nelson didn't play at all, and everyone's timing looked bad as they shook off the rust in the first half. I was ready to give up on Adams after he missed two catchable passes on 3rd downs but he redeemed himself later.

Mike McCarthy started the game by calling a lot of running plays, but that faded as the game went on, and Lacy ended up with only 14 carries. I'd like to see a lot more from Lacy but he'll probably just remain a complementary weapon.

Packers defense: Speaking of players who barely played this preseason, the defense featured two of them, with only one of them being a success story in Week 1. The success was ILB Jake Ryan, who was held out for most of the preseason with a hamstring injury. Against Jacksonville, he was second on the team with 7 tackles and he was very active in the middle of the field, usually tackling T.J. Yeldon for a short gain. The entire defense did a great job against the run (Jags only had 1.8 ypc) and Ryan was a big part of it. The bad news was Morgan Burnett, who had an impressive stat line (9 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for a loss), but committed two penalties (both led to 1st downs) and he looked a step slow in coverage. While Ryan was able to play in their final preseason game, Burnett's back injury (which kept him out for most of the preseason) might still be bothering him.

The front seven did a great job against the Jaguars offensive line. Bortles did a good job of getting the ball out as quickly as he could before the pass rush came, but the Packers still had 3 sacks and shut down the Jaguars' running game. Nick Perry was great against the run and he spent a lot of time in the Jaguars' backfield (1 sack, 2 tackles for a loss) while Clay Matthews missed a couple tackles and Julius Peppers didn't record a single stat. Joe Thomas grabbed the lone INT and he was in on the final stop to end the game. It was a quiet game for Mike Daniels (hopefully it wasn't an SI cover jinx) but that was mostly because he faced a bunch of double-teams.

The secondary was a mixed bag. Burnett struggled and CB Quinten Rollins allowed a TD pass. On the other hand, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was great and Damarious Randall had the top defensive grade from PFF. I was worried about Randall after a bad playoff game and a poor preseason (in limited playing time) but he's bounced back.

Next up is a big game, Sunday Night Football to open the Vikings's new US Bank Stadium on September 18.

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Packers 2016: First Week of Training Camp In The Books

While the Green Bay Packers had their annual Family Night scrimmage over the weekend, and it's always impressive to see the fans come out in such huge numbers for a practice, it doesn't tell you anything (yet) about the players. Maybe Jared Abbrederis was impressive and maybe Davante Adams wasn't. But it doesn't matter until you see them play in a preseason game, and maybe it doesn't even matter then if someone like Adams is already penciled in as the starter by the coaches and isn't being asked to do much during the preseason.

So far, the good news is that the Packers have few injuries. And while some players are out, it gives other players a chance to prove themselves. Both WR Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery are on the PUP list (so that's provided Abbrederis more practice time). Also, LB Sam Barrington is on the PUP list (though I still expect him to become the starter when he's ready) and his absence has given rookie LB Blake Martinez a big opportunity:
It might be a little bit concerning that Barrington is still unable to practice but we don't know all that's gone on with him over the past year during rehab. Maybe it's still precautionary and nothing more. Though it's a little surprising that Martinez has seemed to have moved ahead of LB Jake Ryan, or maybe the coaches know what they have in Ryan and want to see what Martinez can do. None of them are going to be mistaken for Luke Kuechly but at least the Packers have options and it looks like they found a good player in Martinez.

It's super early, there hasn't been any real football played yet that can truly evaluate the players, and they don't play their first preseason game until next Sunday, August 7. I'm glad the season is getting closer but I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

Did The Packers Do Enough This Offseason: Pass Offense

For the past several seasons, when I'm reviewing the changes made by the Green Bay Packers during the offseason, I'm usually focused on what they're doing to improve the defense. But this offseason I'm starting with the pass offense, which was a huge disappointment in 2015, and received as much help help as any unit this offseason:
QB Aaron Rodgers. It all starts at the top with any NFL offense. If 2015 wasn't his worst NFL season, then it came really close, which is still a career year for some starting QBs. On one hand, it's not fair to put all the blame on him when his offensive line was a walking M.A.S.H. unit and he lost WR Jordy Nelson for the entire season, and those are good reasons to expect he'll be much in better 2016 season. On the other hand, his completion percentage in 2015 was his lowest as a NFL starter (60.7%) and its declined every season since 2011. His yards per attempt also hit rock bottom (6.68 per attempt) and placed him near the bottom among qualified players (just ahead of Colin Kaepernick). He should improve when he has more time to throw (healthy offensive line) and Nelson back, but those troublesome stats are something to keep an eye on next season.

WR Jordy Nelson. When Nelson got hurt last year, I thought the Packers were going to have to spread it out and get everyone involved in the passing game. That would have been a real shift in their mentality because Rodgers had come to rely so much on Nelson and Randall Cobb for a majority of his targets. Instead, the Packers continued to rely heavily on their top receivers which featured an ex-Packer off the waiver wire (James Jones) and a second year receiver who wasn't ready for a heavy work load (Devante Adams). Despite glimpses from Janis, Abbrederis and Montgomery, all they've shown so far are glimpses and they can't be counted on yet, if at all. Nelson's return remains the key, and it's still incredibly important that he returns to full strength, otherwise the offseason will have been a bust.

OL Jason Spriggs. Maybe he was selected in anticipation of 2017, when three offensive lineman are up for free agency, but adding quality depth at offensive tackle for 2016 was still an important move. His addition can only help next season.

RB James Starks. He was the 10th best receiving RB in the NFL last season according to Football Outsiders, and that alone might have been why they re-signed him to a two-year contract. Coming into the 2015 season, I had hoped Eddie Lacy would become a difference maker as a receiver but that never happened. Instead it was Starks, though he never became a major part of the passing game, did become very effective as receiver when asked. At 6-2, he doesn't look the part of a prototype 3rd down back, but that might be what he's become. Re-signing him this spring was a small move that might really help the pass offense next season.

TE Jared Cook. First the bad news; Cook was awful in 2015. Among TEs who were targeted more than 25 times last season, Cook was the absolute worst according to Football Outsiders. The counter-argument is that it wasn't just Cook's fault; the entire Rams passing attack was a disaster (which explains the need for Jared Goff) and Cook is a great athlete who's just needed a good quarterback. Though Richard Rodgers (and Justin Perillo for that matter) were statistically much better than Cook last season, Rodgers and Perillo can't get away from anyone in coverage while Cook has the upside to become a major playmaker. This move can't hurt but Cook's next great season will also be his first, so don't book him a ticket for the Pro Bowl just yet.

While the Packers didn't go for broke this offseason, Spriggs and Cook were nice additions but neither of them broke the bank, they didn't stand pat either and think that Nelson alone was going to make them a better passing team. When you have the franchise quarterback in place, it's important to focus on re-loading instead of re-building, and that's what they did this offseason.

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

All The Packers Must Fix The Offense Articles Are Coming Out After Getting Clobbered By The Broncos

The short answer remains that the Green Bay Packers miss WR Jordy Nelson. By one measure, he accounted for 40% of their passing offense in 2014. So now some good intentioned articles are focusing on how the Packers can improve mid-season without Nelson.
Author Andy Benoit liked it when the Packers brought a wide receiver out of the backfield on short passes. I actually wish the Packers would do that more with RB Eddie Lacy instead of WR Randall Cobb, though Cobb has better hands. There's always the potential for a big play when Lacy has the ball in the open field and he hasn't been nearly productive enough this season in Nelson's absence.

When I initially looked at how the Packers could replace Nelson, I focused on the Packers getting more receivers involved in 2015. That hasn't happened but here's who can step up.

WR Davante Adams. He's missed most of the season with ankle injuries but finally returned against Denver. Unfortunately he did next to nothing in the Broncos game but it was only his first game back. He's got to get better as the season goes on.

WR Ty Montgomery. He's been sparingly used and plays an almost identical role to Cobb but he's also been the 2nd best WR of those who have had fewer than 32 targets this season. An ankle injury kept him out against Denver and he'll be welcomed back.

TE Justin Perillo. Perillo is the preferred No. 2 TE at the moment. The answer might be more receivers out in the formation with fewer blockers, and Perillo could become that forgotten TE in two-TE sets that can take advantage of a linebacker in coverage.

RB Eddie Lacy. He too has been battling an ankle injury but looked like his old self in the Denver game. Hopefully he can finish the season strong.

But maybe nothing will help as much as avoiding negative plays and converting on a higher rate of 3rd downs. Their 3rd down conversion percentage has been slowly sinking all season long, and it bottomed out at 25% against the Broncos. Remember that early drive when Lacy carried it twice from on 2nd and 3rd and short when they didn't pick up the 1st down? They can't afford any negative rushing plays at the moment and have to find plays that work on 3rd and short.

As much as the knee injury to Nelson has been the big story of the season on offense, a lesser story is the trifecta of ankle injuries (Adams, Montgomery, Lacy) that has taken away the three players who combined could replace Nelson's production. It's next man up time for one (or more) of these players to make the offense better for the rest of the season.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Packers Defense Is Rolling But What About The Offense?

I've been spoiled by QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense for a while. But for the first time in maybe forever, in the Football Outsiders weekly rankings, the offense (5th overall) is rated lower than the defense (4th overall). Most of this has to do with a much better performance this season by the defense, but last season, the offense was rated No. 1 overall by FO. What's to account for this mini-slump on offense?
The short answer is that the offense is missing WR Jordy Nelson. It's also been missing WR Davante Adams, but the good news is that he's back at practice this week. As good as WR James Jones has been, which isn't his fault because Nelson is one of the best in the NFL, he hasn't been effectively a replacement for Nelson. Jones and rookie WR Ty Montgomery are effectively replacing what was hoped for from Adams. Despite the extra attention above, Cobb's basically been the same as last season, though a few more passes have falling incomplete to him.

His absence has also hurt the ground game, probably because the opponent's safety is less worried about deep coverage without Nelson around and more interested in RB Eddie Lacy. The run game wasn't helped when RT Bryan Bulaga missed a few games either. Lacy's yards per carry are significantly down this season (4.6 in 2014 vs. 4.1 in 2015) and it's even worse for RB James Starks (3.9 in 2014 vs. 3.3 in 2015). With the run offense struggling, it's getting harder to convert on 3rd down. Here's how they've done through the first five games:
Team 3rd Down % Points Scored
Week 1 Bears 60% 31
Week 2 Seattle 36% 27
Week 3 Chiefs 36% 38
Week 4 Niners 33% 17
Week 5 Rams 31% 24
The offense has scored 17 points in their last two games, and the 3rd down conversion percentage is trending downward with each passing game. The Bears have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and that Week 1 conversion rate on 3rd down is looking more like the exception not the rule. The Packers converted for a 1st down on 47.2% of their 3rd downs in 2014 vs. 38.3% overall in 2015, so many drives that kept going last season are ending up with a change of possession.

Unfortunately there's no easy answer to get the offense back to how it was in 2014. Bulaga is back, which can only help since he's much better than Don Barclay, and Adams will eventually recover from his high ankle sprain. Montgomery should continue to improve during his rookie season. But the only player who can really take them to the next level is Nelson. So the best offense in the NFL might just have to settle for being No. 5 overall this season.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Jordy Nelson Is Out For The Season And Who's Going To Replace Him

The word from WR Jordy Nelson and his doctors is bad, and his 2015 season is already over.
If I had one complaint about the offense last season; it was a bit top heavy. But there's also no reason to complain that QB Aaron Rodgers had three elite receivers to work with (Nelson, Cobb, and Lacy). Below is the statistical breakdown from Football Outsiders and it includes almost everyone who caught a pass in 2014:
DYAR Passes Rank
Nelson 482 151 2
Cobb 479 127 4
Adams 19 66 63
Boykin -38 12 n/a
Quarless 24 46 22
Rodgers -8 30 34
Lacy 112 55 4
Starks -20 29 46
Using their stat DYAR as a guide, the Packers now have to replace about 40% of their receiving production. Most of that is expected to go to WR Davante Adams but there's no guarantee he'll stop dropping passes and become a consistent 300 DYAR weapon. Maybe they can turn Lacy into a Le'veon Bell type threat as a receiver. They could get more from the tight end position, but last season those two were more of a safety valve than a downfield threat, and the Packers will still need a dump-off option for Rodgers in 2015.

I think the answer is going to be that everyone will have to step up. I'm looking back at the 2012 season, when Nelson and WR Greg Jennings were lost for a combined 13 games due to injuries, and here's the statistical receiving breakdown from Football Outsiders:
DYAR Passes Rank
Cobb 300 104 12
Jones 287 98 13
Nelson 257 73 17
Jennings 38 62 64
Driver 13 13 n/a
Finley 84 88 10
Crabtree 69 12 n/a
D.J. Williams -32 15 n/a
Alex Green -20 29 39
Kuhn 60 18 n/a
C. Benson 45 15 n/a
The Packers got some sneaky good production out of four players (Driver, Crabtree, Kuhn and Benson) who caught just over one pass per game. They didn't have anyone like that in 2014, and maybe Kuhn can do it again in 2015. Whoever wins the battle for the No. 3 tight end might be asked to be like Tom Crabtree. TE Justin Perillo seemed to be the No. 2 tight end during their first preseason game against the Patriots, but he missed the Steelers game with a concussion and TE Kennard Bachman didn't impress against the Steelers.

Maybe WR Ty Montgomery will surprise me, or WR Jeff Janis, but I look at what Davante Adams did in 2014 and find it hard to believe either one of them could be better as a rookie than Adams. Cobb excelled as a rookie in 2011 but he's the exception, not the rule. WR Myles White has his moments in the preseason, along with some drops, and seems like an unlikely savior.

Other than WR Koren Robinson in 2007, I can't think of a veteran receiver that the Packers even tried to plug into Mike McCarthy's offense, and Robinson wasn't a success. James Jones is mentioned now as a trade target, if the Giants do release or trade him, but the Packers drafted three receivers in 2014 to replace him. Plus the Giants wouldn't gain much in trade and Jones has gotten off to a strong start with them. I can't see any other veteran free agent fit, and there should be some demand when teams like the Bears and Panthers are also trying to replace injured wide receivers.

So it's a tough situation for Green Bay. Instead of relying on Nelson to get open against whatever tight coverage faced him, the Packers are probably going to have to get creative with different personnel and spreading the ball around to many receivers.

Monday, August 24, 2015

Packers Lose Preseason Game, Jordy Nelson Probably Tore His ACL

Things might change on Monday after the MRI on WR Jordy Nelson's knee is reported, but it sure looked like an ACL tear on TV because it was a non-contact injury after a reception, like something snapped when he stretched out his leg. And maybe it's not season ending, not all ACL tears are the same anymore, but it will change their season on offense.
There's no doubt that his loss would hurt them, but they've partially been here before, playing a partial season without Nelson. In 2012, he missed several games because of a hamstring injury, and QB Aaron Rodgers's stats...looked about the same in 2012 as they did in 2014. Here's how they overcame his absences and here's one big difference.

WR Randall Cobb and WR James Jones. These two took over as the Packers's leading receivers in 2012 without Nelson. Cobb's still in town doing his thing, and while Jones is gone, WR Davante Adams is expected to do more in 2015 and can take over Jones's role. Now the Packers still did get some healthy games from Nelson, WR Greg Jennings, and TE Jermichael Finley, and the rest of the 2015 receiving core (Will Montgomery, Jeff Janis, and Andrew Quarless/Richard Rodgers) isn't at those players' 2012 levels. If Aaron Rodgers can coax two 60 reception, 600 yards seasons out of two of those players, they won't be too far off of their 2012 pace in 2015.

RB Eddie Lacy. While the receiver depth in 2015 isn't as strong as it was in 2012, the Packers didn't have a running game in 2012. That season, RB Alex Green was their leading rusher, and his 2012 performance makes their decision to draft Lacy in 2013 even more obvious in hindsight.

As for the rest of the preseason game, it was disappointing to allow 15 unanswered points to end it and lose (even it was the preseason) and there were a couple of culprits:

QB Brett Hundley. He looked good against the Patriots, and looked like a confused rookie against the Steelers. He'll get a couple more chances in their last preseason games to get some on-field experience before he spends most of the regular season on the inactive portion of the 53-man roster.

LT/RT Don Barclay. After a bad game against the Patriots, he was even worse against the Steelers. He got to play 1st team LT while David Bakhtiari is out with a knee injury and he allowed multiple sacks, including the safety while Rodgers was still in at QB and the hit on Scott Tolzien that knocked him out of the game with concussion symptoms. The bigger problem is that they don't have an obvious second choice to replace Barclay. OL JC Tretter played some tackle (poorly) last season, though I haven't seen him lined up at tackle once this preseason, and he's probably the next best in-house option.

Backup and rookie cornerbacks. While CB LaDarius Gunter continues to look like another undrafted CB gem from the U (following in Sam Shields's footsteps) and rookie 1st round CB Damarious Randall had an INT, rookie 2nd round CB Quinten Rollins struggled and so did a number of backups. With the exception of Rollins, none of these DBs should have been expected to make anything other than the practice squad, so it's not exactly the biggest concern.

Penalties. Especially the roughing the passer and punter 4th quarter penalties that helped the Steelers come back. Again, these penalties were committed by players that weren't expected to make the team, so it's not a big problem.

Friday, January 02, 2015

Rodgers, Kuhn Named First-Team All-Pros

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and FB John Kuhn have been named 2014 NFL First-Team All-Pros, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tyler Dunne reports. 

Rodgers received 44 of 50 media members' votes for his position, according to Dunne. As for Kuhn, he got 18 at fullback, enough for the accolade.

Besides them, WR Jordy Nelson and Guard Josh Sitton both made the second team, solidly garnering 15 and 22 votes, respectively. Sitton's total left him just short of the first team, writes Dunne.

The Packers are coming off a 12-4 campaign this fall, one which proved good enough for the NFC's no.2 seed after Sunday's win over the Lions.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Five Packers Make NFC Pro Bowl Team

Five Packers players have been named to this year's NFC Pro Bowl team, ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reports.

QB Aaron Rodgers, who ranked number one overall among the fan balloting, will return to Hawaii for the fourth time, accompanied by FB John Kuhn (second selection), WR Jordy Nelson (first selection) and G Josh Sitton (second selection) on the offensive side of the ball.

As for Green Bay's defense, it willl be represented by LB Clay Matthews (fifth selection), who has 10 sacks this season. 

WR Randall Cobb is considered by snubb by Demovsky, having not been selected in favor of Cincinnati's A.J. Green. 

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Packers Name 2014 Playoff Captains, Three Weeks Before Postseason Even Starts

It's January in Green Bay, before it's even Christmas.

That's the message the Packers appear to be sending with today's announcement of their 2014 playoff captains, in spite of the fact they are yet to clinch a Wild Card Berth and the postseason won't start for another three weeks. 

According to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky, their captains on offense will be Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, while the defense is set to be represented by Julius Peppers and Morgan Burnett and the special teams Randall Cobb and Jarret Bush. 

Sort of a strange story here, but since Nelson apparently thinks it's already playoff time, I guess it's understandable. Not to mention, it'll take a lot for the Packers to miss at this point, seeing as they are currently 10-4.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Nelson: "We Had All Sorts of Chances" to Win Sunday

Jordy Nelson is acknowledging his role in yesterday's loss.

The star Packers WR told Madison.com after the defeat he and the team didn't capitalize on their opportunities, specifically referring to his touchdown-costing drop late in the third quarter.

"We had all sorts of chances and just didn't make them for whatever reason," Nelson said. "My drop could've won the game for us, so I've gotta make those no matter how easy or hard they are."

The missed catch likely would've given the Packers a 17-16 lead, completely altering the course of the game. Instead, though, Green Bay stayed behind until the clock hit zero, dropping their 2014 road record to 3-4.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Cobb: Packers and I May Negotiate New Contract During Season

While it's been the popular opinion all year that the Packers and Randall Cobb won't negotiate an extention until the season ends, the latter has come out and said otherwise.

"I think that [the Packers and my agent] could have conversations right now," Cobb recently told Cheesehead TV. "That's on them. That's the business side. He can handle all that. I've told him, hopefully things work out for the best, and I would love to stay here next year and be a part of this organization. But it's a business, and I understand that, and it works both ways. At the end of the day, (I) just have to make the decision that I feel is best for me, and the team is going make the decision that they feel is best for the team."
Cobb is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, but considering the way the Packers have treated Aaron Rodgers, Clay Mattews, and Jordy Nelson recently, it seems unlikely he'll leave them. 
Let's hope that observation is right.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Jordy Nelson Is Number One, But Spreading The Ball Around Has Made The Packers Offense Better

Sam Monson has written the definitive post about the Green Bay Packers first game with Clay Matthews at inside linebacker (don't call him an inside linebacker!) and should be read by anyone interested in his new position/role on defense.

Another interesting point raised this week was that QB Aaron Rodgers threw two of his six touchdown passes against the Bears to tight ends, which doubled the number of touchdown passes thrown to tight ends this season. He has been throwing more passes in general to TEs Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers in recent weeks and he's been spreading the ball around to the benefit of the offense.

Below are the number of targets to their top receivers so far this season, pro-rated out to 16 games in the next column, and compared to the number of times each player was targeted in 2013.
Receiver 2014 Targets 2014 Projected 2013 Targets
Nelson 84 149 126
Cobb 60 107 46
Lacy 30 53 44
Adams 37 66 0
Quarless 27 48 54
Richard Rodgers 14 25 0
Jones 0 0 93
Boykin 8 14 82
Finley 0 0 34
One interesting note is that overall the Packers haven't run as many offensive plays this season. So when you combine the projected number of targets to Quarless and Rodgers (73) and compare that to the total targets in 2013 to Quarless and Jermichael Finley (88), it's down but overall the number of plays are down anyway.

The number of pass attempts to Eddie Lacy is up slightly, and passes that last year went to James Jones and Jarrett Boykin (so much for his breakout season) have gone to a healthy Randall Cobb and rookie Davante Adams, though not as many. However, the one player that jumps out is Jordy Nelson.
29% of all pass attempts have been targeted at Nelson, which leads the team by a wide margin. Early in the season, Nelson was targeted 40% of the time, so he's actually been less featured in recent weeks. He's also had to play against two teams (Lions and Saints) who were very determined to shut him down with double coverage.

Whatever they're doing this season its working in the passing game, Aaron Rodgers moved ahead of Peyton Manning in ESPN's QBR this week, so this is not a complaint. I'm just tracking how the passing game is being used as the season goes on.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Reaction: Saints Snap Packers Winning Streak

My takeaways from the Packers' 44-23 loss to the Saints yesterday, their first since Week 3:

1. Mike McCarthy Needs to Stop Being Dumb:
There's just no way to sugarcoat it. Putting in Julius Peppers to drop a pass Jordy Nelson would've made in his sleep and onside kicking in the first quarter were clearly not good decisions. 

2. The Bad Defense is Back:
Just in case you actually thought the elusive "solid defense" had arrived.

3. This is Still Just One Game:
No reason to panic. They'll bounce back for sure.

Leave your thoughts below if you disagree with any of my points.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Where Did All Of Aaron Rodgers's Weapons Go?

Over the past few seasons, QB Aaron Rodgers has been pretty consistent about spreading the ball around. Last season, WR Jordy Nelson led the team with 126 targets (22% of all pass attempts) with WR James Jones second at 16%. It's a little harder to rank TE and the other WR position because Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley each missed 10 games, but WR Jarrett Boykin was targeted on 14% of pass attempts and Finley and TE Andrew Quarless combined were targeted 15%.

I'd expect the top two receivers (Nelson and Cobb) to be targeted on 20-25% of pass attempts, the number three wide receiver at 15-20%, and the number one tight end at about 15%. But that's not at all what's happened so far this season.

Coming into this season, Boykin was expected to be the number three WR and he's only been targeted three times in two games (one reception). The starting TE, Richard Rodgers, hasn't been targeted a single time. Instead, 30 of 75 pass attempts (40%) have been thrown to Nelson. That might not seem like such a bad idea, targeting their best receiver 40% of the time (Cobb's at 20%), but Aaron Rodgers's yards per game are at 242.5 in 2014 (down from 268.8 in 2013) and RB Eddie Lacy's per game yardage is half of what he had in 2013. The offense hasn't been as effective when they can only count on Nelson for yards and Cobb for touchdown receptions.

I don't know why Boykin or Richard Rodgers have been invisible in the first two games, but rookie WR Davante Adams did emerge against the Jets with 5 receptions on 7 targets. Adams played little against the Seahawks in Week 1 (no targets) but if he kept up his Week 2 usage over the course of the entire season, he would receive about 20% of all pass attempt. That's the usage I was expecting from their number three receiver. Maybe Boykin is better suited as the number four receiver and Adams will move ahead of him shortly.

Whatever happens, the Packers have to find away to get more receivers involved in the offense.

Friday, September 05, 2014

McCarthy Denies Claim that Packers Refused to Throw to Sherman

Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy denied the claim that his team refused to throw to Seahawks CB Richard Sherman in Thursday night's loss.

"I don't think you ever make a conscious decision not to throw to one side of the field," McCarthy told the Green Bay Press-Gazette earlier today. "Frankly, it was more of a decision to put Jordy on the left and see if (Sherman) would come over and play him."

Now obviously, Sherman never ended up doing that, something that should only make this quote look worse. In my eyes, it seems to be nothing but an excuse, a misfortune that will likely make the Pack look weak.

Monday, August 11, 2014

Nelson Day-to-Day After Suffering Hamstring Injury

Packers Wide Receiver Jordy Nelson is currently listed as day-to-day after suffering a hamstring injury last week, ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reports. 

During Saturday's preseason opener in Tennessee, strangely, Nelson didn't play, the reason for which remained unknown until today. 

Fortunetaly, though, the injury doesn't seem to be anything serious, and #87 is expected to play this weekend.

Nelson, 29, just signed a 4-year/$39 million extension with Green Bay a couple of weeks ago, a deal that likely needed to be done when you consider this year's reasons for concern, most notably the sudden absence of longtime-catcher James Jones.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Cobb Doesn't Think He's Done Enough to Earn New Deal

Packers Wide Receiver Randall Cobb doesn't think he's done enough to deserve a new deal.

In a recent interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tyler Dunne, Cobb said that exact line, probably surprising many who consider him an elite player.

Still, it's not like this new opinion will change anything in the near future, as #18's clearly too valuable to the team for them to let him walk. 

Remember, Cobb's set to be a free agent for the first time in his career after the upcoming season, something Green Bay likely can't afford screwing up even if Jordy Nelson's under contract.