Wednesday, December 05, 2018

2018 Week 13: The Packers Lose in a Shocking Upset by the Cardinals and Mike McCarthy is Fired

At the start of this season, I thought it was low odds that the Green Bay Packers would fire Mike McCarthy. While I've been unimpressed with the overall talent level on the current roster, the return of Aaron Rodgers should be enough for 10+ wins and another playoff run. Obviously I was wrong.
I didn't agree with this tweet until recently. In hindsight, he's right. The greatness of the 2010 and 2011 seasons had been fading for a while. Now looking back at a great 2014 season, I can see how much it was propped up by elite play from Rodgers, Nelson, and Cobb. It wasn't going to be sustainable, and it started to fall apart quickly in 2015 after Nelson was lost for the season. In early 2016, it wasn't McCarthy's fault and once they get Nelson back, Ted Thompson will continue to run a beautiful draft and they'll get back on top.

I had no explanation for why Dom Capers was still the DC after the 2015 season (probably sooner) but I like retaining coaches year after year. This is one of several general assumptions that I need to reconsider.

Though it took a furious finish to get back to the NFC Championship Game in 2016, I wasn't worried. The Falcons had a great 2016 season and once their young players are experienced and healthy in the secondary, they'll have a great 2017 season.

But the 2017 season was lost after Rodgers broke his collarbone, and it should have been clear to me that McCarthy's departure was inevitable. He was unable to coach Brett Hundley into a respectable QB and his team completely gave up on him during their Week 17 loss in Detroit. It was Detroit's players who were rallying around their HC (Jim Caldwell was fired anyway) and it felt like McCarthy should have been fired instead of Caldwell.

Maybe McCarthy would have been fired if GM Ted Thompson wasn't fired reassigned. The beautiful drafts didn't happen. Though the 2016 draft produced three starters, the 2017 draft class might be a total loss other than Aaron Jones. Aside from Jones, the Packers haven't drafted a key contributor on offense since Adams and Linsley in 2014. Maybe Murphy didn't want to change everything that was long-standing at once, and McCarthy deserved another chance.
I thought the 2018 season was over when Rodgers's knee was bent back the wrong way in Week 1, but he had a couple of furious comebacks to keep this season afloat. When he complained about the bad offense against the Bills in Week 4, I thought he was underestimating a pretty good defense. He's also had to rely on a couple of rookie wide receivers which was going to be a problem until they're both more experienced.

But the stale offense that couldn't get anything out of Hundley in 2017 was again a problem even with Rodgers. It wasn't awful, but it could and should be better.

Ever since they lost a pair of road games to the Rams and Patriots, I thought the season was over (though not technically). The team was still playing hard, but that stopped against the Cardinals. The thought of watching them play out four more games that looked like 2017 Week 17 in Detroit was an awful feeling, and for that reason I'm glad Murphy decided to fire McCarthy mid-season. He was going to be fired after the season anyway, the excuses that could have been used for 2015-2017 just weren't going to work anymore.

And they'll need time to find the right coach. I'm not a fan of Vikings OC, John Defilippo, or Patriots OC, Josh McDaniels. After what McDaniels did to the Colts this year, I don't think he deserves another HC offer anywhere. The new coach will have to be someone who can engage Rodgers at his high level (Joe Philbin is not that guy) while still being able to team the basics to the young receivers and backs. Murphy probably knows the NFL as well as anyone and right now I'm optimistic. 

I don't know what to expect over the final few games. It's time to give the players who will be the anchors in 2019 to get fewer reps on defense and let players like Oren Burks play an entire game. Finally send Byron Bell to the bench and give fewer reps to Adams. It would seem hard (maybe impossible?) to find an excuse to bench Rodgers. If Philbin wasn't coaching for his job, I'd suggest he hand over play calling to Rodgers and let him try and find a rhythm with the young receivers Tonyan, MVS, and EQB.

I'm surprised at this is how the 2018 season has went though firing McCarthy was unfortunately the right decision.

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