Jsonline.com reported that former Kansas City LB Monty Beisel will visit the Packers. Although former starter LB Hannibal Navies was a bigger linebacker and LB Na'il Diggs was a good LB in pass coverage before 2004, the Packers would be better off with a LB who is good in coverage. Beisel is a former defensive end, so he probably isn't the fastest LB in the NFL, but DC Jim Bates seems to like Beisel's speed according to jsonline.com. Of the linebackers still available in free agency, former St. Louis LB Tommy Polley had 4.5 tackles for loss and 6 pass defenses, would probably be the better fit. Unfortunately, Polley never looked too impressive when I saw St. Louis play, he probably realizes he is the best free agent LB still available, and has a big price tag. LB Anthony Simmons was an outstanding linebacker in Seattle before his career was derailed by injuries, however Simmons probably wants a lot of money too and who knows if he is healthy. There are a few middle linebacker types available (LB Rob Morris, LB Jay Foreman, LB Scott Fujita) but they are middle linebackers and Bates would want more speed than they would bring to the team. Overall, none of these players seem a good fit, but the Packers need more depth at linebacker.

Still no word on the Packers safety position. Maybe that is something better addressed at the end of free agency.

There isn't much to say about the loss of FS Darren Sharper to Minnesota. Minnesota picked up a big play maker on defense and paid him about the same in a signing bonus as the Packers would have paid in a roster bonus ($4 million). Part of the problem was that Sharper's Packer base salary would have been higher than his Minnesota base salary. Sharper should be a good to great player over the next four seasons of the contract. It strengthens a division rival while weakening the Packers. The only good news this offseason in Minnesota is that the loss of WR Randy Moss can't be overcome by these other additions.

The Packers have been busy reconstructing their offensive line. Resigning OL Grey Ruegamer was a good start; he wanted to stay with the Packers and he was dirt cheap (around $540,000 with a "modest" signing bonus according to jsonline.com). The Packers know what they are getting with Ruegamer, but if that was so great then the Packers wouldn't have cut him in the first place. OL Adrian Klemm probably is being paid too much, but a 2 year $2.6 million contract, according to jsonline.com, is pretty cheap for the modern NFL. Klemm should have been a minimum wage signing, but a number of teams were apparently interested in what Klemm could be. Klemm's only 27 years old and could be a useful starter. The real interesting thing about Klemm is that if he could have stayed healthy over the last five seasons, he would have started at left tackle for three Super Bowl teams in New England. The big downside with Klemm is that there is a lot of what he could have been in his career. OT/TE Kevin Barry resigned with the Packers. The Packers used to have dreams of Barry at right tackle and RT Mark Tauscher at guard, but those dreams have probably died over the last two seasons. Barry is still young, healthy, and familar with the offense; so the price was right. The final signing (so far) is OL Matt O'Dwyer. O'Dwyer missed all of last season in Tampa and had been known for having quite a temper. In 1999, O'Dwyer was arrested for felony assault at a bar along with two other New York Jets linemen, including current Jets LT Jason Fabini. Thirty-one (31!) officers were called to the scene because of the size of the three men. O'Dwyer allegedly kicked out the window of a police cruiser. O'Dwyer is not the teddy bear of the NFL, which isn't necessarily a bad thing in an offensive lineman, and he has been named the starter on every team he has played for in the NFL. If O'Dwyer is healthy, then he will probably be starting at one of the guard spots next season. At the veteran's minimum, it is a pretty good deal. The Packers are probably done in free agency at offensive line, but it would be very surprising if no offensive linemen are drafted next month.

Another harmless signing was TE David Martin. Martin has managed to regress (although injuries have played a part) every season in the NFL, so he probably has ran out of chances with the Packers. Except the pass catching TE is an endangered species on the current Packers roster, and because Martin can catch the ball some, he is getting another chance.

Multiple sites reported that QB Brett Favre will return for next season. The Packers best
chance next season is Favre, WR Javon Walker, RB Ahman Green, rebuild the offensive line,
let new defensive coordinator Jim Bates improve the defense, and win the NFC North again.
Still some work to do with the offensive line and defense, and the defense wasn't made any
easier by the release of FS Darren Sharper. Just a giant loss.

The only possible good side to Sharper's departure is that Jim Bates never had a top
safety while in Miami. He built the defense around great cornerbacks (it would be a
stretch to say CBs Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain = CBs Al Harris and Ahmad Carroll), a
great linebacker (LB Nick Barnett isn't LB Zack Thomas but not too far apart) and a great
defensive end (DE Jason Taylor is probably one of the top 5 defensive players in the NFL,
but DE KGB is underrated and one of the top 5 defensive ends in the NFL). Maybe Bates can
work around the fact that he is without a safety worthy of starting in the NFL on his
roster.

OG Marco Rivera had back surgery? One week after signing for giant bucks in Dallas he
injures his back on a tread mill. Unbelievable. Hopefully Rivera recovers quickly but
this is why the Packers shouldn't have matched that huge offer; Rivera is going to start
braking down at this point in his career.

The Packers quiet free agent season continues. Jsonline.com reported that the Packers met
with the uninteresting trio of OG Cosey Coleman, OG Floyd Womack, and TE Freddie Jones.
Its unlikely that a majority of GMs in the NFL believe that any of these three players are
starters. Jones has a no block/good catch reputation but might have trouble beating out
TE Ben Steele or TE Sean McHugh on the roster. McHugh is a bit of a mystery; the Packers
were high on him after they claimed him from Tennessee at the start of the season, but he
saw no playing time. Womack would probably be preferred over Coleman, but both players
are the type that a team should develop from a low draft choice (OG Marco Rivera-6th
round, OT Mark Tauscher-7th round).

Minnesota continues its up and down offseason by signing CB Fred Smoot with a $10.8
million signing bonus. Minnesota's defense was awful last season, but adding someone like
Smoot isn't an automatic improvement. Signing CB Antonio Winfield last season, who played
very well against the Packers when his health permitted, didn't help much either.
Minnesota already has the players to make the defense work, its their coaching that is the
problem.

Chicago signed OT Fred Miller with a $6 million signing bonus. What a way to spend money.
Miller has played on some very good St. Louis and Tennessee teams over the last few
seasons. Maybe Chicago is hoping some of their wins will come with Miller from those
teams.

Detroit signed TE Marcus Pollard and SS Kenoy Kennedy. Kennedy only seems to make news
with illegal hits. Pollard is 33 and in the twilight of his career. Neither signing
seems a huge help.

CB Michael Hawthorne was cut according to jsonline.com. Not a big surprise since Hawthorne looked terrible as the starting cornerback last season when given an early opportunity. He didn't have the speed to keep up with NFL wide receivers, and that's the kiss of death for a cornerback. Jsonline.com followed up on the really disappointing release of FS Darren Sharper. The Packers currently have a roster with no starting offensive guards or safeties (unless SS Mark Roman has somehow improved a better player over the last two months) and have the first real big holes in their roster that they have had in a while. The last two times they had such big openings on their roster was two seasons ago when they only had LB Na'il Diggs pencilled in at starting linebacker and in 1999 when they had to draft cornerbacks with their first three picks.

Jsonline.com also reported that OG Mike Wahle didn't receive as big a signing bonus ($8 million instead of $11.5). Not that the Packers had a realistic chance at fitting under the salary cap in either situation. It was pretty interesting that a bidding war began over OG Marco Rivera between Detroit and Dallas, and pushed Rivera's signing bonus over ($9 million) over Wahle's. Wahle should have gotten more (just as good if not better player plus younger, but Rivera has been to a couple of Pro Bowls) but the Packers didn't have a chance at matching the contract demands for either player.

Just a reminder, I only talk about signing bonuses for contracts because that is the only true and guaranteed portion of the contract. Much of the total contract value for many signings is only for show (big $$$ at the end of the contract that the team would never pay).

Jsonline.com reported that Cleveland LB Kevin Bentley would meet with the Packers. At 6'1" 240lbs and a former 4th round selection, he is similar to Diggs but not as tall. Bentley didn't start in 2004, but he was 3rd on Cleveland with 91 tackles in 2003 with 2 pass defenses and 1 interception. Not very impressive stats, but he is only 25 years old so he could still improve. Not very exciting free agent news, but with the Packers cap blues, Bentley is probably the typical free agent the Packers will talk to this offseason.

OG Marco Rivera signed with Dallas for a $9 million signing bonus according to AP. Wow. The Packers had no chance at matching that offer. To have matched that offer, the Packers would have to release at least the contracts of FS Darren Sharper and the contract offer to TE Bubba Franks, plus probably at least one other player. That would have been the end of the Packers offseason. Rivera won't be easily replaced, but the Packers had to let him go at that price.

OG Mike Wahle signed for an $11.5 million signing bonus to play in Carolina according to jsonline.com. That is bigger than Rivera's signing bonus, but it was expected that Wahle would get that much money and play tackle. It is surprising that Carolina signed him to play right instead of left tackle, but they already have a good left tackle in OT Jordan Gross. The Packers never had a chance of fitting Wahle under the salary cap.

San Diego signed S Bhawoh Jue on the first day? Jue was quoted by AP "I can't tell you why a starting position never came my way." It was because Jue was beyond awful in 2003 and improved to almost average in 2004. Plus, playing next to an injured Sharper and struggling SS Mark Roman made his play look better. It would be surprising if Jue ever becomes a full time starter in San Diego.

At least the rest of the NFC North isn't looking much better in free agency, so far. Minnesota traded WR Randy Moss for LB Napoleon Harris and the #7 pick, while signing DT Pat Williams to plug up the middle ala NT Grady Jackson. Williams has been playing very well for the past few seasons in Buffalo, but he is on the wrong side of 30. Harris could be an upgrade over lost LB Chris Claiborne to St. Louis and who knows what they do with the #7 pick. Minnesota's offense was good without Moss last season, but that was only for a few weeks and not a good sample size. Minnesota has to be considered a big net loss so far without Moss. Chicago signed WR Muhsin Muhammad (while forgetting that Muhammad too is on the wrong side of 30 and was useless until he perked up in the 2003 playoffs and carried it forward for all of 2004). Muhammad can't throw the ball to himself, so this wasn't an inspired signing. Detroit hasn't done anything in free agency yet and doesn't seem rumored to do anything other than sign a veteran to backup (excuse me, push) mediocre QB Joey Harrington.

I didn't know about the lack of distinction between offensive guards/center/tackles for franchise tags. It probably explains why I can't remember a single guard or center ever being tagged. That doesn't make any sense because they are paid at greatly different levels, but I don't think anyone in the NFL has any interest in correcting that oversight.

I really have no idea what Ted Thompson will do with the offensive line. I've given up addressing it after Rivera and Wahle. Now Ruegamer is cut and Kevin Barry is given a low ball contract offer, leaving only Scott Wells for depth. I'm still not sure Mike Flanagan will come back from his injuries. He was out last season due to complications from the horrible leg injury he suffered in the mid-90s. Flanagan can play anywhere on the line so his return would be huge, but I'm not counting on it until I see it. Flanagan at guard and Wells at center makes a lot of sense too. The Packers were high on Steve Morley when they signed him, but I suspect they weren't high on him after they saw him in camp. There has been past talk about moving Tauscher to guard and start Barry at right tackle too. Right now, other than Clifton at left tackle, anything could happen.

Free agency is beginning...

After reading various articles on espn.com and jsonline.com, it doesn't seem likely that either OG Mike Wahle or OG Marco Rivera will be retained. Wahle is no surprise departure; his salary cap figure was insane high (>$11 million) and he deserves a big free agent contract to start at left
tackle for some other team. Rivera's age and history of injuries (to Rivera's huge credit, injuries
which he has usually played through) might make him lightly pursued in free agency. ESPN reported that Dallas might want Rivera, so that might end Rivera's career as a Packer.

The all restricted free agents were all given the lowest tender contract offers according to
jsonline.com. It seems unlikely that any team would hotly pursue QB Craig Nall or J.T. O'Sullivan. It wasn't good to see DE Aaron Kampman given the lowest tender offer. If some team wanted to sign Kampman, it would only cost them a 5th round pick. Kampman was solid again in 2004, he was the Packers best defensive player in the win at Minnesota that clinched the division championship, and it would be a step down at defensive end to replace him with anyone else currently on the roster. On the other hand, Kampman isn't the most gifted athlete and might not draw much interest. RB Najeh Davenport is probably going to sign somewhere else now that his new team would only have to surrender a 4th round pick to sign him. Davenport is a great talent and would be missed, but he has had problems staying healthy for years and isn't as young (27) as you would think.

Hopefully the Packers quit talking to FS Darren Sharper about a pay cut and rework his deal for the salary cap. He can't be replaced with anyone currently on the roster, and the depth chart at safety would be topped with two players (S Bhawoh Jue and S Mark Roman) who both could be cut. The only reason to keep either Jue or Roman is that they can play cornerback too and neither player costs much. Neither one of them should be starting next season. Sharper would draw interest as a free agent and probably would be lost.

After reading Tom Silverstein's article at jsonline.com, I see I was mistaken with OG Mike Wahle's free agency. His contract isn't expiring, but his cap number is $11 million next season, which is far too high and intended to force the Packers to release him. It doesn't seem possible that the Packers could use their franchise tag on Wahle. That's too bad, because it would really surprise me if Wahle doesn't sign a contract with a signing bonus over $10 million next season to start at left tackle for some other team.

The rest of Silverstein's article is very good too and does a great job of setting up the next four weeks for the Packers front office. Silverstein does put too much emphasis on retaining LB Hannibal Navies, who rarely made plays last season, and took a big step back from his solid 2003 season. OG Marco Rivera is a priority for next season, but how many seasons will he play at a Pro Bowl level? His knees have taken a pounding over the last few seasons and he didn't seem to play as well in 2004 as past seasons. If his contract demands are to be paid like as one of the highest paid offensive guards in the NFL, which they should be, then the Packers might be better off in the long run to let him go. Although it would be harder to convince QB Brett Favre to return without Rivera and Wahle back on the offensive line. Rivera's return is a not an easy decision.

TE Bubba Franks was tagged as the Packers franchise player, as multiple sources reported. It makes some sense to let Franks go out and price himself in the marketplace, then if some team offers Franks a reasonable contract, the Packers can easily match it. It probably depends on whether a team with cap space really wants to upgrade their tight end position this offseason; it would easy to write a contract that the Packers can't afford to match and they have to let Franks go for no compensation.

If the Packers think FS Darren Sharper would accept a pay cut, then they must be crazy. Unless Sharper's loyalty to the Packers is beyond my imagination, if Sharper is a free agent this offseason, then he would find a team willing to pay him a multi-million dollar signing bonus on a long term contract. If the Packers want to reduce Sharper's salary cap figure and keep him, then they have to offer him some guaranteed money and an extension. This can often lead to salary cap jail in the future if you do this with too many players, but Sharper can still play at a high level for a few more seasons and be worth the dollars in future seasons.

Overall this is a tough first offseason for Ted Thompson. It would be more difficult to rebound next season with the losses of Rivera, Wahle, Franks, and Sharper (assuming Favre returns). Favre's departure would change every other decision in the offseason.

Its been a quiet past couple of Packer weeks.

There has been speculation on QB Brett Favre's retirement, but nothing is really known at this point (maybe Favre himself doesn't know what he wants to do).

Further speculation has been whether FS Darren Sharper will remain a Packer. Hopefully he stays but his 2005 cap number is too big. Sharper has lost a step over the last two seasons, but he still makes big plays, he is just turning 30, and he isn't too old or slow to remain a top NFL safety for the next few seasons. The Packers will probably have to guarantee him some money now to spread out his salary over the next few seasons.

Will some Packer get the franchise tag? I've read about TE Bubba Franks being tagged, but that seems unlikely after Franks's average past couple of seasons. Maybe OG Mike Wahle or OG Marco Rivera will be tagged. The salary cap value to tag either player would be less than other players because offensive guards are generally lesser paid players. Rivera would probably receive a franchise tag to keep him a Packer, but Wahle might get tagged and traded to a team that would play him at left tackle (and pay him bigger left tackle bucks). ESPN.com's Len Pasquarelli had an article about teams using the franchise tag to obtain compensation for free agent departures a week ago, so it is possible that the Packers might decide to do the same. Remember that the Packers are currently over the salary cap so they won't be quick to place the franchise tag on any player (they would have to restructure contracts or release players to make it possible) and players are more likely to leave than to stay at this point.

If Wahle and/or Rivera leave this offseason, its likely that OG Steve Morley is at the front of the line, along with C Grey Ruegamer or C Scott Wells depending on whether C Mike Flanagan can return from his injuries. Morley was just sent to NFL Europe to get some more experience. OT Kevin Barry could return and start at right tackle, with RT Mark Tauscher switching to guard too. Morley was probably the Packer with only legitimate chance of starting or making the roster who was sent to NFL Europe, although bust P B.J. Sander was sent too.

If the current roster is left intact and new defensive coordinator can Jim Bates turn the defense into a NFL average unit, then the Packers are better than any team in the NFC except Philadelphia and have a great shot at making the Super Bowl. That should be the goal for this offseason.

It looks like WR Donald Driver will be proven wrong. After various sources reported on Driver's radio show comments that QB Brett Favre would be retiring, espn.com's Chris Mortenson reported that Favre will be staying. Hopefully Favre will be playing for a couple more seasons. Favre isn't the best QB in the NFL and he takes too many chances (although they work out as often as they don't), but he will remain a threat to lead the NFC in TD passes next season (he led the NFL in 2003 and QB Daunte Culpepper could throw fewer in 2005 if WR Randy Moss is traded and so might QB Donovan McNabb if WR Terrell Owens doesn't fully recover from his broken leg-remember WR Jerry Rice was never the same after he broke his kneecap) and the Packers could spend the next 25 years (approximate time between QB Bart Starr and Favre's careers) looking for as good a quarterback.

Bob Slowik decided for a change of scenery after the 2004 defensive disaster. Slowik coached a very good Packer secondary from 2001-2003 and was offered the opportunity to return to that position, but he accepted the same job for Denver, as reported by denverbroncos.com last week. He could have been a good coach for the Packers next season, but maybe this was for the best.

After the loss vs. Minnesota, I wrote that the Packers had two top priorities; hiring a new defensive coordinator and a new secondary coach. If Bob Slovik accepts his old secondary coach job back this week, then the Packers will have accomplished both priorites.

New defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Bates finished 2004 as the interim head coach in Miami, after leading Miami as their defensive coordinator on an impressive run of top 10 finishes in total defense (according to footballoutsiders.com) in each of the last 5 seasons (2000-2004). Miami's pass defense under Bates never slipped below 9th (footballoutsiders.com ranked Miami's pass defense 9th in 2004), which was very impressive considering the train wreck that was Miami's 2004 season. Looking at the Packers 2004 defensive stats, the weakness in the Packers' pass defense can be seen in its pass defenses in 2004 (68 in 2004, down from 92 in 2003). Although the Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie and his 18 pass defenses in 2003, it was really a team let down. The Packers top 3 corners in 2003 combined for 37 pass defenses, while in 2004 they combined for 35, which shows that it wasn't replacing McKenzie with CB Ahmad Carroll that caused the problem, but that it was a team let down. Miami totaled pass defenses of 79, 84, 78 in 2004 through 2002 respectively, while being led by the unlikely pair of former Badger CB Jamar Fletcher's 12 in 2002 and DE Jason Taylor's 11 in 2004. Miami has had some great individual players on defense over the last 5 seasons, but Miami hasn't relied on any one player for their excellent pass defense. It has been a team effort coached by Bates.

Hopefully new/old secondary coach Bob Slovik. Slovik couldn't figure out how to make the Packers defense work in 2004 as coordinator, but Slovik had a successful run as secondary coach from 2000-2003 with the Packers. The Packers secondary was in the top 10 (again according to footballoutsiders.com) from 2001-2003, while below average only in Slovik's first season of 2000. Some mitigating factors in 2000; it was the rookie season for DE KGB and he hadn't gotten much playing time yet (former DE John Thierry led the Packers with 6.5 sacks in 2000) and McKenzie hadn't yet been established as the starting cornerback (he only started in 2001-2003). Bottom line; the Packers secondary has been good when Slovik is the secondary coach. Hopefully Slovik wants to stay with the Packers and reestablish himself in the NFL as a good coach with a secondary that should be much improved (minus SS Mark Roman) in 2005 after Carroll and CB Joey Thomas got their rookie seasons out of their systems.

The Packers introduced Ted Thompson as their new GM. Although President Bob Harlan was talking about how Mike Sherman understood the need to reduce his burden entering Sherman's lame duck season of his contract, this was the first real firing in the Packers front office since Ron Wolf was hired in 1991. Since 1991, only two head coaches have been fired (Lindy Infante - 1991 and Ray Rhodes - 1999) and the Packers have been a remarkably stable franchise. There are a few ways to look at this move.

Thompson was a panic hire. After the second Lambeau playoff defeat in three seasons, Harlan had to do something to seem decisive. Thompson was an easy hire because he worked for the Packers for most of the 1990s (1992-1999) and is someone whom Harlan is very familiar. The downside is that Thompson has failed to improve the personnel in Seattle over the last three seasons; the only impact players acquired from 2002-2004 were CB Marcus Trufant and FS Michael Boulware. Seattle's big free agent in 2004, DE Grant Wistrom, was often injured and only recorded 3.5 sacks. Thompson leaves Seattle before the start of a dangerous offseason with their three best players (QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander, and LT Walter Jones) all entering unrestricted free agency.

It was necessary to hire a GM. Mike Sherman was only able to act as GM/Coach because he could rely on Mark Hatley, the former personnel director for Chicago who had never been officially given the title of GM in either Chicago or with the Packers. Unfortunately, Hatley passed away last summer and finding someone of Hatley's caliber willing to work under Sherman was probably an unlikely situation. Therefore, a true GM needed to be hired and Sherman's title would have to be trimmed back to coach only (I haven't read anywhere if Sherman gets to keep the VP title he had).

This contradicts Ron Wolf's last decision as Packers GM to hire Sherman to replace him. Maybe, but the last time Harlan hired a GM was Wolf and Wolf thought enough of Thompson to work alongside him in the Packers front office for several seasons.

In the end Thompson doesn't address the biggest need the Packers have this offseason; fix the defense. Thompson could bring in better defensive players, but I don't blame the players as much as I blame the defensive coaches. Thompson might know how to throw a bunch of high draft choices on Trufant, Boulware, and SS Ken Hamlin, but he can't teach them how to play a zone or cover-2. Thompson's going to have to prove to me that he deserves this job.

For some reason, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee J-S wants Mike Sherman out as GM, maybe even as coach too. Silverstein had an article posted on jsonline.com on 1/12/05 about the Packers alleged pursuit of Seattle's VP of football operations Ted Thompson for GM. Hopefully, Packers' President Bob Harlan doesn't take Silverstein's advise.

Thompson has Packer roots, working under former GM Ron Wolf from 1992 to 1999. Silverstein said "since joining the Seahawks in January 2000, Thompson has run the draft and advised Holmgren on personnel matters." That is probably overstating Thompson's importance. Holmgren didn't give up GM duties in Seattle until Seattle hired Bob Ferguson as their GM in February 2003 (http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Spins/2003/spin021103.htm). Silverstein gave Thompson credit for drafting "running back Shaun Alexander, guard Steve Hutchinson, receiver Darrell Jackson, cornerbacks Ken Lucas and Marcus Trufant and safeties Ken Hamlin and Michael Boulware." If he really wanted to pump up Thompson, he should have mentioned how Thompson fooled Wolf into trading QB Matt Hasselbeck and the pick that became Hutchinson for the pick used on useless DE Jamal Reynolds. Of course, Silverstein didn't mention any of the inept decisions Thompson was involved with, such as drafting TE Jerramy Stevens, or signing injury prone DE Grant Wistrom for big bucks (more than twice what useless ex-Packer bust DE Joe Johnson was paid), or allowing Seattle to come into this offseason with their 3 big offensive stars (T Walter Jones, Hasselbeck and Alexander) all unsigned for 2005. He also failed to mention how Thompson completely failed to improve a very talented 2003 Seattle and allowed them to regress in 2004.

Silverstein appears to think Sherman is useless as a GM. Silverstein does praise Sherman for drafting WR Javon Walker and C Scott Wells (Scott Wells?) but is quick to mention the "numerous mistakes in free agency (Joe Johnson, Hardy Nickerson, Tim Couch, Mark Roman, Cletidus Hunt)" Johnson was bad, Hunt has been disappointing (but somewhat underpaid considering what teams now pay for defensive tackles like Cornelius Griffin or Rod Coleman), and Nickerson, Couch and Roman all haven't worked out, but cost the Packers little. "Of his six picks in 2004, the only one who showed promise was seventh-round center Scott Wells," says Silverstein, while ignoring the fact that rookies rarely perform well in their rookie season. If Silverstein wants an example, take a peek at QB Brett Favre's stats his rookie season. How about LB Nick Barnett Tom? Or the 2nd round pick that brought in CB Al Harris?

Sherman has been in charge of 3 drafts since Wolf retired (2002-2004. Ignoring 2004 (rookie seasons don't define players), 2002 and 2003 have brought in Walker, RB Najeh Davenport, DE Aaron Kampman, QB Craig Nall, Barnett, and Harris (traded for 2nd round pick). How did Thompson do in 2002 and 2003? The only noticeable starters are the disappointing Stevens (by the way, Seattle was total suckerpunched in this draft when they tried to trade down and still pick New England TE Daniel Graham, but New England traded up to take Graham and left Seattle stuck with Stevens), CB Marcus Trufant, and S Ken Hamlin. TE Ryan Hannam got some playing time late in the 2004 season too. Maybe QB Seneca Wallace is primed to be the next QB Jeff Blake, otherwise the Packers have drafted better in those two seasons than Seattle.

My point is that Sherman is a competant GM and coach. You can compare Sherman favorable to nearly every other coach or GM in the league over the last three seasons, except Bill Belichek (probably one or two other teams too). Sherman has not done well in free agency, but teams aren't built through free agency (see Washington). He does need someone to replace the late Mark Hatley, but he doesn't need to go looking for a new job. The best thing for a team in the NFL is stability, at least through the last couple seasons for Favre. Changing GM and coach will not put this team any closer to a Super Bowl in the next two seasons (although a change of defensive coordinator and secondary coach remains a must this offseason).

Packers 17, Minnesota 31. Not quite as humiliating as the 2002 home playoff loss against Atlanta but it was still a big hurt. With the defense struggling as bad as it was, QB Brett Favre had to have a perfect game and he was off. Favre struggled in his previous cold Lambeau game against Jacksonville when he threw 3 interceptions and he struggled again against Minnesota in the cold (4 more INTs). It didn't help that the wide receivers appeared to run poor routes on three of the interceptions while the fourth pick was a deflection. No matter how disappointing the outcome, the Packers came into this game as a below average team due to their poor defense and Minnesota played better during the regular season. Minnesota managed to score exactly 31 points in each meeting vs. the Packers and this time the Packers couldn't manage their usual 34 points to get the win. Favre is now considering his future (please come back in 2005!) and the Packers have to figure out where to go from here.

How did they do in 2004? The offense improved! No really. Footballoutsiders.com offensive DVOA rating was 13.3% in 2004, up from 8.1% in 2003. The Packers total offense rating slipped from 8th to 9th, but 2004 was a big season for offense. The offense had more yards per game, fewer sacks, and fewer turnovers. The Packers defense had outplayed the Packers offense from 2001 through 2003 (no really; go to footballoutsiders.com or see below for the shorthand breakdown) but the defense collapsed in 2004. Only the bay area duo of San Francisco and Oakland had worse pass defenses.

So what is wrong with the pass defense?

Interceptions are probably the first answer. The Packers had 24 INTs in 2002 and 21 in 2003, but slipped to 8 in 2004. By the way, Ed Donatell's improved Atlanta pass defense increased their interception to total to 19 in 2004, up from 15 in 2003.

The second answer is pass defenses (PDs). The Packers fell off the cliff, going from 95 PDs in 2002 and 92 PDs in 2003, falling to 68 PDs in 2004. CB Al Harris actually improved his number from 14 PDs in 2003 to 20 PDs in 2004. The Packers lost CB Mike McKenzie's 18 PDs (replacing them with CB Ahmad Carroll's 8) and FS Darren Sharper fell from 13 to 7 PDs. The biggest offenders were the starting linebackers; although LB Nick Barnett had 6 PDs in 2003 and 2004, LB Na'il Diggs and Hannibal Navies fell from a combined 8 PDs in 2003 to 0 (yes zero) PDs in 2004. Ed Donatell's biggest improvement in Atlanta was raising the team's PDs up from a lowly 56 in 2003 to 80 in 2004. The best pass defense in the NFL in 2004, Buffalo, was led in PDs by their outside LB Takeo Spikes's 17, and as a team recorded 83 PDs. The secondary and linebackers inability to get into position to either break up a pass or intercept it was the number one defensive problem in 2004.

It wasn't the lack of a pass rush that led to a poor pass defense either. DE KGB had 13.5 sacks and his stats were nearly identical to his 2001-2003 seasons. The Packers actually had more sacks, up from 34 in 2003 to 40 in 2004, and got into the backfield as much as they ever have with 49 tackles for a loss, down from 57 in 2003 but way up from 36 in 2002.

The run defense slipped in 2004, but the loss of NTs Grady Jackson, James Lee, and Donnell Washington to injuries was as much of the problem as anything else.

So who takes the fall for the awful pass defense that sank the season? Maybe no one; CB Joey Thomas and Carroll had to take on far too much responsiblities far too early in their rookie seasons due to McKenzie's decision to abandon the Packers. Maybe the players; Sharper clearly looked a step slower while playing injured much of the season and SS Mark Roman failed to impress in his first Packer season. Diggs and Navies might both need to be replaced after they failed to have any impact in pass defense. However, most of the blame should fall on the new defensive coaches; coordinator Bob Slovik and secondary coach Kurt Shottenheimer. Players often looked lost in coverage, the rookie cornerbacks didn't develop much during the season, and the defense looked outcoached on too many occasions. Shottenheimer looked like a good hire at the start of the season, but the Packers fell from 92 pass defenses in 2003 to 56 in 2004, while his former team, Detroit, greatly improved from 66 in 2003 to 80 in 2004.

So how to fix the Packers this offseason? Mike Sherman deserves to be back as coach and GM in 2005, but he does need to replace personnel director Mark Hatley, who passed away last summer, and find a good player personnel man to assist him in the future. The Packers need a change at defensive coordinator and secondary coach. It was no slam dunk decision to fire Donatell last season, but Slovik and Shottenheimer need to move on. The Packers might want to consider moving Sharper to strong safety and finding a quicker cornerback-type player to play at free safety. Most important is finding a linebacker who is good in coverage, preferable a veteran player, to replace Navies. Diggs was probably held back due to injury and poor coaching and shouldn't take the blame this season. It won't be easy to juggle salary cap concerns and free agent re-signings so that a veteran linebacker can come to Green Bay and a defensive coaching change is rarely a cure-all, but both need to happen this offseason.

2004 -5% 21; O 13.3% 9 (P 26% 8, R 9.4% 7 ); D 20% 29 (P 32.3% 30, R 4.9% 23); ST -2.8% 24
2003 18.9% 5; O 8.1% 8 (P 11.8% 8, R 4.8% 8); D -9.4% 9 (P -10% 8, R -8.7% 10)
2002 13.2% 8; O 2.8% 19 (P 7.1% 15, R -2.6% 20); D -12.8% 4 (P -32.4% 2, R 10.7% 29)
2001 13.8% 8; O 2.1% 15 (P 12.8% 6, R -11.3% 22); D -11% 11 (P -21.6% 7, R 3.5% 23)

Packers 31, Chicago 14. It was hard to be too inspired to write anything about this game. Chicago phoned it in, at least on offense. The Chicago defense looked bad, but without their best player (LB Bryan Urlacher), they shouldn't be looking too good.

First Half: Bad tackling continues. WR David Terrell ran for a while after CB Al Harris got completely lost and SS Mark Roman continued his poor tackling. But this quick early Chicago TD was their only highlight. The Packers made it look easy scoring against Chicago, and QB Chad Hutchinson helped with the TD pass to FS Darren Sharper. It wasn't the worst decision Hutchinson could have made (although he could have stopped staring at the receiver) and it was a great read by Sharper. QB Craig Nall played well again, his four good game of the season (preseason vs. Tennessee, Tennessee, Philadelphia, and now Chicago). Considering he almost was cut in the preseason in favor of QB Tim Couch, he has really given his career a second life. He is a restricted free agent (I believe) this offseason and might be traded this offseason. Packers 28, Chicago 7.

Second Half: The only concern remains that the Packers run defense didn't play well again. RB Thomas Jones did not have a great season, only rushing for over 100 yards against the Packers twice, Minnesota once and Detroit once (highlight the poor run defense in the NFC North). NT Grady Jackson didn't play to rest his knee, but it wasn't incouraging to let a below average running back run all over you. The Packers offense played to get the game over with. Packers 31, Chicago 14.

In the first few weeks, the biggest concern for the Packers was their depth at defensive tackle. With three key injuries by week 5 (DT Donnell Washington, DT James Lee, and DT Grady Jackson), it was a big problem. Well the problem is back. Lee is now on IR and gone for the season, he missed the last couple of games anyway, and Jackson has reaggravated/reinjured his knee and needs more surgery. Undrafted rookie DT Colin Cole made his first appearance as a Packer last week in Minnesota for some added depth. Jackson is putting his needed (no pun intended) surgery and play through the rest of the season. Teams seem to love to run away from Jackson, so if Jackson stops playing it could be a very quick postseason. The most likely first round opponent, Carolina, isn't a very good running team (now starting their 4th string RB Nick Goings), unfortunatley the likely 2nd round opponent, Atlanta, is a very good running team although their big RB T.J. Duckett will probably play his first game in a month in the playoffs after undergoing December knee surgery.

Should the Packers sit out their players in Chicago? I hope not. Last season, Denver came into Green Bay in week 17 to play a meaningless game, sat all their regulars, and then got blown out in the playoffs. Injured players like LB Na'il Diggs and Jackson should sit, but the rest of the team should play at least the first half.

Packers 34, Minnesota 31. NFC NORTH CHAMPS!!! A very surprising end to a disappointing 1-4 start. What changed during the season to turn 1-4 into 9-6? Surprisingly it was the improvement in the offense. The defense has been run over all season, but in the Packers first 5 games, only the week 3 loss against Indianapolis was an excellent offensive performance. Tom Rossely's health problems that led to Mike Sherman calling plays after week 5 could have been a reason. The offense played fine at Carolina and vs. Chicago, but neither was a dominant performance. The Packers offense didn't score a TD against Tennessee until they were down 24-3, which was far too late. The offense was in a slump starting against Philadelphia, continuing vs. Detroit, and didn't break out until the 2nd half vs. Jacksonville. The offense has overall been great this season, but the defense can't stop anybody and the offense has to play at a very high level the rest of the season.

First Half: Please, please, please tackle somebody. LB Nick Barnett is playing hard but can't cover the entire field. LB Na'il Diggs is trying to play through a serious back/kidney injury. There is no one in the defensive backfield that was not tackling bad. Jsonline.com has a recent article pointing the finger at SS Mark Roman, who is the most perplexing tackler, because prior to December he was the best tackler in the secondary but he has been playing poorly ever since. CB Joey Thomas's wiff on the tackle of RB Michael Bennett's TD run was the worst missed tackle I've seen in the NFL this season. Fortunately, QB Brett Favre had his way with Minnesota's defense for the second time this season. Minnesota held the big play in check, but couldn't stop Favre moving the offense down the field on long drives. Favre will have to play like this the rest of the season. Packers 17, Minnesota 21.

Second Half: As bad as the Packers secondary was at tackling, they played very well in coverage. The tackling improved, the coverage was good, and Minnesota didn't get a big play on offense the rest of the game. Their only TD was the outstanding interception by LB Chris Claiborne. The Packers defense has had problems with good tight ends in coverage all season, but TE Jermaine Wiggins was covered well and had minimal impact after being a major weapon against the Packers in week 10. DE Aaron Kampman had his best game of the season and had a major impact. He ran down WR Nate Burleson down from behind on a short pass, which was unbelievable. Minnesota's WRs just gave up on QB Daunte Culpepper in the fourth quarter. How great is it to have automatic (within 40 yards) K Ryan Longwell with the Packers? Packers 34, Minnesota 31.

The most amazing thing about this game was the way the score, final play, total yardage were all identical with the week 10 game in Green Bay.

Reggie White's funeral was today. When I first heard the news, it really surprised me, and reminded me of the too young passing of former Chief Derrick Thomas. White's signing with Green Bay was the fourth and final major step that led to the Packers two mid 90s Super Bowl appearances, after signing Ron Wolf, signing Mike Holmgren, and trading for Brett Favre. There is a lot of commentary on the internet over the last week regarding Reggie White the man and player. While no one has disputed Reggie White as a great football player, many comments have been made about White has said over the years (his comments on homosexualty apparently cost him a job with CBS) and charitable activites he never actually did (failed to pay a promised donation to a charity in Denver and never rebuilt the church destroyed by fire in the mid 90s). I'm not the best person to address Reggie White the person, so I'll leave that for other websites. But Reggie White the player was dominate at times, always the first concern of every opposing offense and made the entire defense better, and the second greatest Packer player since the end of the Lombardi era.

The only regret of Reggie White's Packer career should be the way it ended. If it hadn't been the salary cap era, it would have never been a problem. But White was unsure about retirement over the entire 1997 season (he played hurt most of the season) and throughout and after the 1998 season. Ron Wolf was trying to plan for life after Reggie on defense, but needed the salary cap relief Reggie's retirement would bring after the 1998 season. New head coach Ray Rhodes asked Reggie to reconsider retirement and he appeared to be considering a return in 1999, but Ron Wolf ran out of time and had to ask Reggie to officially retire with the NFL. Reggie was NFC defensive player of the year in 1998 and obviously wanted to play again or he wouldn't have played for Carolina in 2000. Its a small regret, but it would have been great to have seen White play for the Packers in 1999 and 2000.

Packers 28, Jacksonville 25. The good news is that this game truly didn't matter. When the Packers beat Minnesota next week, the Packers essentially assure themselves the #3 seat and the NFC North championship. A Packers loss would result in the top wild card spot and a game at probably Seattle (someone has to win the NFC West). All the problems that resulted in the Packers loss were fundamental problems with the team that aren't going to be fixed this season if ever.

First Half: Jacksonville scores an easy TD. Who's fault is it? Just about everyone (defensive coaches and players) can take some blame. QB Brett Favre/RB Ahman Green fumble in the red zone (1 of 3 red zone turnovers). Fumbles and Green just seem to go together and there is nothing to be done about it. Then the defensive penalties start...Are the Packers defensive players frustrated or poorly coached or both? All 3 top CBs Al Harris, Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas keep constantly grabbing the receivers. Jacksonville has two of the top DTs in the NFL in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, rookie 3rd string C Scott Wells held his own, and he even handled Henderson one-on-one on a big Green run play. Great heads up play by FS Darren Sharper (everyone on both sides gave up on an apparent incompletion except Sharper who stripped the ball from an offensive lineman who picked up the ball and ran in it for a TD). K Ryan Longwell missed his first field goal within the 40 yard line in a long while and it cost in this game (this again isn't a problem that needs or can be fixed but it cost the Packers big in this game). Overall it was a very poor half with a lot of Packer turnovers and penalties. Packers 10, Jacksonville 14.

Second Half: TE Ben Steele has been useless for weeks, but he caught a couple of short passes in
this game and finally started to show his usefulness. The Packers took advantage of their blocker overload on short yardage running plays to set up the TD pass to WR Donald Driver (who is sneaking up on an outstanding season). They had been overloading blockers to the strong side all season, usually ran for the short gain for the first down, and used that tendency to set up the TD pass. How did the Packers run defense set up a big RB Fred Taylor TD run? Everyone (coaches and players) can take some blame. Sharper blitzed to the wrong side and took himself out of the play (was it his fault or a bad scheme?), DT Cletidus Hunt was blocked by one blocker and pushed out of the hole, NT Grady Jackson was blocked by the left guard one-on-one, if either Hunt or Jackson had occupied more than one blocker then the center couldn't have come out and blocked LB Nick Barnett out of the play, and finally SS Mark Roman (who has had a bad last few games and might have played his way out of the lineup for next season) took a bad angle and couldn't make the tackle. Maybe LB Hannibal Navies should be the middle linebacker (he is bigger than Barnett) because he showed again that he can't cover anybody. Rookie DE Corey Williams had a lot more playing time this game and made some plays to show that he might be a starter next season. How many times can Favre throw an interception in the end zone? In this game, the answer is twice. The interception to CR Rashean Mathis in the end zone was a true stinker (Favre just lost sight of him) and Mathis's second interception appeared to be caused by the cold when Favre's out pass just lost its zip across the field. FS Deon Grant's interception was a great play on Grant's part with perfect timing. How can coach Jack Del Rio defend SS Donovan Darius's attempt to take WR Robert Ferguson's head off? That was the most vicious attempt to intentionally hurt a Packer since DT Warren Sapp broke LT Chad Clifton's hip a couple of seasons ago and it can't be defended. WR Antonio Chatman got his first TD reception for his career, which is great for him since he has played better than now injured WR Robert Ferguson and truly is the 3rd wide receiver. The Packers almost got the onside kick, but that was a long shot anyway. Packers 25, Jacksonville 28.

Overall the Packers should just forget about this game, threaten to amputate the cornerbacks' hands if any of them keep grabbing at the wide receivers, and go win in Minnesota next week.

Below this post is the current post regarding the Packers/Detroit game. I posted this about Philadelphia right after the game two weeks ago but apparently blogger ate it. So I'm reposting it.

Packers 17, Philly 47. Well forget about that one. Instead of going over the shelling blow-by-blow, lets talk about the...

Offense. By far their worst game of the season. QB Brett Favre had his string of games with a TD pass end, the offensive line was physically beaten, and the receivers didn't get seperation/make plays. Minor minor note: TE Ben Steele dropped his 5-6 pass attempt in the last 3-4 games (replacing injured TE David Martin in the offensive scheme) without catching a pass and he has to be removed from the scheme. Mike Sherman needs to take a close look at this game film and find out what needs to be adjusted. QB Craig Nall has only played in two games this season (the last preseason game and this game). In the preseason, he convinced the Packers that they could safely release QB Tim Couch, and in this game he showed he has some potential. He is QB A.J. Feeley (Miami) good and a pretty good backup QB.

Defense. The secondary played poorly today, but they weren't helped by a very poor defensive scheme (especially on the first TD pass to WR Terrell Owens when they played 20 yards off of him) that employed a lot of zone/cover 2/matador schemes. Just a horrible defensive scheme. Philadelphia followed the Indianapolis game plan of passing for the entire first half and building up a giant lead. This would be awful, except Indianapolis has been torching the entire NFL this season and Philadelphia has a great pass offense, so its not just the Packers problem. Obviously nothing can be wholesale fixed this season, but this is the third 40+ point game allowed this season, so it needs to be fixed for next season. The secondary is pretty set with big contracts for CB Al Harris and FS (maybe 2005 SS?) Darren Sharper and both rookies (CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas) should be better next season. The linebackers need to be fixed; maybe wholesale changes, maybe replacing LB Hannibal Navies (he just doesn't make any plays), maybe something else, etc. The defensive line needs the most work. DE KGB has good games, he played well against Pro Bowl OT Orlando Pace last week, but some weeks he isn't a factor. DE Aaron Kampman never gives up on a play and has accumulated some sacks this season. There has been zero push from the interior, where DT Cletidus Hunt has been pulled on passing downs for DT Cullen Jenkins and NT Grady Jackson is the best interior pass rusher. Finding a defensive tackle who can create a pass rush is the top priority. Maybe changing the defensive coaching staff is in the future too.

Everyone in the NFC is playing poorly, except Philadelphia which is battling for best team in the NFL status along with Pittsburgh and New England, so the Packers should still win their division. Forget about this game and get ready to beat Detroit next week at Lambeau.