Packers 0, New England 35. QB Brett Favre said last week in Minnesota that everyone on the team contributed to the win. This week, everyone contributed to the loss. No one played well, no one coached well, and no one deserves to miss any blame for the loss. The real surprise was Favre's bad play and then the bad play by QB Aaron Rodgers. Football Outsiders wondered if there was a contagious disease inflicting all Packer quarterbacks with bad passing. Rodgers looked awful, but the big surprise was that he is out for the season with a foot injury and QB Todd Bouman is now the backup. Bouman played against the Packers last season with New Orleans and he looked horrible, so it is very good news that Favre appears to be ready to play on Monday. The team didn't drop far in Football Outsiders' rankings, so it is clear that New England is very good and the Packers aren't ready to compete against a quality team yet. The good news is that New England was the best team remaining on the Packers schedule, assuming Chicago is sitting all their starters in week 17. The Packers have played better on the road for the last three seasons, so a bounce back win against a struggling Seattle team is very possible.

Packers 23, Minnesota 17. QB Brett Favre said in the post-game press conference that this might have been the first game he ever played in that every player contributed during the game. While Favre was probably feeling pretty good after the win and wanted to complement his teammates, his analysis is pretty accurate and I'll just leave it at that with a few exceptions.

WR Billy McMullen's TD reception. For the THIRD week in a row, the Packers let an opposing wide receiver run WIDE open into the end zone for a TD. FOX finally showed a replay that helped explain this problem. When the Packers switch to a zone coverage, the opposing team is flooding the zone. On this play, another receiver ran a short route into that part of the zone and the safety stepped up to cover, leaving McMullen wide open. The safety screwed up, I don't remember which one was playing deep, by jumping on the wide open receiver in front of him instead of the wide open receiver running deep. However, the scheme failed because LB A.J. Hawk, according to the Journal-Sentinal, blew the coverage and was not deep enough to defend the short receiver. The safety messed up, Hawk messed up, and the pass rush gave QB Brad Johnson too much time to throw on that particular play. This is not an experienced group of linebackers and safeties, so learning from their mistakes will help and the coaches need to do a better job too.

NT Pat Williams. The FOX commentators said it and Football Outsiders agree; Minnesota has the best run defense in the NFL. Williams overpowered LG Daryn Colledge, C Scott Wells, RG Jason Spitz at different times during the game. This is not a problem because apparently Williams has been overpowering every opponent all season long and he killed the Packers last season too. The Packers might have ran away with this game if their run offense had been more effective. Hopefully the rookies know what to expect from Williams next time they meet and do better against him.

WR Donald Driver had a monster 1st half in large part because Minnesota had LB Dontarrious Thomas trying to cover him as the slot receiver. Was this due to CB Fred Smoot missing the game and Minnesota played less nickel coverage? Did Mike McCarthy outcoach Minnesota by creating such a favorable matchup? Either way it resulted in a big half for Driver.

A big thanks goes out to Minnesota's RB Artose Pinner who's penalty for a block in the back negated a kick return for a TD. The Packers might not have won the game without that penalty.

What is coming up for the Packers? Although the Packers have won their last 3 of 4 and the defense is overall playing better, the 4 games were played against 4 of the worst 6 offenses in the NFL. The good news is that the offense was able to move the ball against 2 of the top 10 defenses, Minnesota and Miami, and the Packers only play 1 top 10 offense (New England is ranked 10th by Football Outsiders) the rest of the season. The Packers have to win 6 of their next 7, for a 10-6 record, to guarantee a playoff spot, but 9-7 or 8-8 might make the playoffs this season. All of the Packers remaining games are winnable. New England is tough, but it is at Lambeau and New England's pass defense has been really weakened by the loss of S Rodney Harrison. Thereafter they will play no above average offensive team, although Seattle will probably have all their starters back by 11/27, and only two quality defensive teams, Minnesota and Chicago. Winning at Chicago would look impossible, but the Packers will probably see very few starters playing against them in week 17 as Chicago rests for the playoffs. The Packers are still not a very good team and still have allowed more points this season then they have scored. However, they have a legitimate chance at making the playoffs. At the beginning of the season, I projected the Packers would finish between 6-10 and 9-7, a wide range but it was unclear how this team would play in 2006. At the beginning I was pessimistic and expected a 6-10 season. Although the offense, defense, and special teams have all improved over the last 4 weeks and they have a favorable schedule, their inability to win at home, inconsistency in protecting the ball from turnovers, and a pass defense that allows too many big plays doesn't seem likely to win 5 of their next 7 games. I expect them to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

Packers 10, Buffalo 24. This loss was reminicent of the Packers losses during the Mike Sherman era; the Packers outplayed their opponent but the turnovers killed them. In three of their previous four 2006 losses, the Packers lost because their defense couldn't stop anyone and turnovers didn't kill them, with the exception of the St. Louis game. At least St. Louis played well in that game and deserved to win as much as the Packers did. Against Buffalo, the Packers dominated on offense and defense only to let huge turnovers swing the game against them.

First Quarter: A big kickoff return sets up an easy FG. The Packers special teams were killed in this game on kick returns and kick coverage. It was the only Buffalo unit that outplayed their counterparts. The Packers offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage in their last few games and keeps improving each week, but they always struggle in the first quarter. The offense was slow to start out the game because of this. The defense played its best game of the season for the first three quarters, but unfortunately forced zero turnovers.

Second Quarter: Buffalo knew the Packersing Package!
scrapbooking, scrap-booking, scrapbook, tips, craftsthe ...


Memorable Scrapbooking. The Greatest Gold-Mine Of Scrapbooking Goodies Ever Crammed Into One Amazing Package!
scrapbooking, scrap-booking, scrapbook, tips, crafts

The extension paid to C Scott Wells seems reasonable. The "five-year contract, which will pay him up to $15 million after bonuses" is the same amount per season that Houston is paying C Mike Flanagan, and Wells is better than Flanagan at this point in their careers. Wells has been solid ever since he became a full-time starter during the middle of the 2005 season.

The special teams have gotten so bad that the AP even ran an article on it. K Dave Rayner blamed himself and his teammates. WR Shaun Bodiford was disappointed that he wasn't taking advantage of the opportunities his teammates were providing him. Special teams coordinator Mike Stock appeared to blame his players. Stock said "we didn't block anybody" and "we've got to improve the personnel." Stock hasn't been the coordinator of a good special teams unit since the mid-90s in Kansas City, so I'm thinking of putting the blame on Stock's shoulders. The Packers are so young that they really need good coaching to turn the special teams players into a unit, and that hasn't happened.

Packers 10, Buffalo 24. This loss was reminicent of the Packers losses during the Mike Sherman era; the Packers outplayed their opponent but the turnovers killed them. In three of their previous four 2006 losses, the Packers lost because their defense couldn't stop anyone and turnovers didn't kill them, with the exception of the St. Louis game. At least St. Louis played well in that game and deserved to win as much as the Packers did. Against Buffalo, the Packers dominated on offense and defense only to let huge turnovers swing the game against them.

First Quarter: A big kickoff return sets up an easy FG. The Packers special teams were killed in this game on kick returns and kick coverage. It was the only Buffalo unit that outplayed their counterparts. The Packers offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage in their last few games and keeps improving each week, but they always struggle in the first quarter. The offense was slow to start out the game because of this. The defense played its best game of the season for the first three quarters, but unfortunately forced zero turnovers.

Second Quarter: Buffalo knew the Packers liked to throw the quick slant pass but the Packers made no adjustments and dared Buffalo to stop them. The interception returned for a TD by LB London Fletcher wasn't a classic bad mistake by QB Brett Favre. It was designed to be a quick pass that Favre threw immediately before the defense had a chance to react, but Fletcher reacted. Favre threw it into tight coverage, but that was how the play was designed. Mike McCarthy should have seen the coverage and adjusted his play calling. The offense came back with a nice drive until a botched snap turned the ball over. As Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders has preached for a few years, teams can learn to force fumbles but fumbles are recovered by luck. So far this season, says Schatz, the Packers have "had poor luck with fumble recoveries." By this point of the game, Buffalo has still done nothing on offense. The Packers have another good drive to end the half, but the shotgun snap bounces off Favre's facemask and Buffalo recovers. C Scott Wells appeared to have snapped early, but how embarrasing was it for Favre to have it bounce off his facemask?

Third Quarter: FB William Henderson played a lot for the first time this season due to the injury to FB Brandon Miree and Henderson looked great. He had a reception for a first down and did a great job blocking Buffalo's linebackers on running plays. How did Henderson lose his job to Miree? The TD pass to WR Donald Driver was the same play that was intercepted in the 2nd quarter; a quick slant with Fletcher all over the passing lane, but Favre's throw just beats Fletcher. They won that gamble, but with the Packers starting to dominate Buffalo's defensive front seven, do they really need to gamble with these quick passes that Buffalo is expecting? The Packers pinned Buffalo deep in their territory on three straight possessions, but P Brian Moorman had some great punts. Finally the Packers start at midfield and a short drive leads to a long field goal.

Fourth Quarter: Buffalo's offense was dead in this game until the Packers defense gave them some life in this quarter. Why did CB Al Harris let WR Lee Evans run wide open behind him for an easy TD on a underthrown ball? The Packers have been doing this every week. At Miami, CB Charles Woodson let WR Marty Booker run by him and QB Joey Harrington threw it between 3 defenders who seemed confused who was covering Booker. CB Patrick Dendy let WR Troy Walters run wide open across the field against Arizona for a TD. Usually the cornerbacks are playing man-on-man, but sometimes they let receivers run away from them as if it were playing zone coverage and the safeties never show up in time. Are the safeties late in coverage? Are the cornerbacks playing the wrong defense? Are the coaches screwing up the signals or the defensive schemes? Just fix it. RBs Ahman Green and Noah Herron are running all over the Buffalo defense by this point, but McCarthy decides to throw one more slant pass into tight coverage. The cornerback is all over the receiver and a lucky bounce leads to a long interception return. Why throw a pass that they have been covering all game when you can run it right down their throat? A deflated defense comes back on the field and RB Anthony Thomas runs three times at DE KGB for another touchdown. I've been a big defender of KGB over the past few seasons, but he has to be taken out on running downs. He doesn't get to the quarterback like he used to and he isn't stopping the run either. Teams used to bull rush him for good yardage, but every other play he would get a step on the blocker and stop the running back. He doesn't do that anymore. He has to be reduced to a 3rd down rusher and let someone like DE Cullen Jenkins play on running downs. I skipped over DE Mike Montgomery, because he doesn't seem much better than KGB at run defense.

The Packers played their best game versus Arizona, but it apparently cost them two starters and RB Vernand Morency to injuries. CB Charles Woodson came back into the game and caught an interception after landing awkwardly on his left leg, so it is a little surprising that the injury has gotten worse and will keep him out. On the other hand, it is surprising Woodson has played so much this season considering his past struggles with injuries. CB Patrick Dendy, who gave up the only passing TD against Arizona, would take over for Woodson, and barely used CB Will Blackmon would become the nickel cornerback. Luckily Buffalo is coming playing washed up WR Peerless Price and underachieving WR Josh Reed against Dendy and Blackmon, while CB Al Harris will cover their only receiving threat WR Lee Evans.

Morency injured his back and FB Brandon Miree hyperextended his elbow against Arizona and neither is expected to play at Buffalo. Both players had arguably the best games of their careers against Arizona, so the injuries are bad timing for them both. Both players have capable backups at this point, FB William Henderson for Miree and RB Noah Herron for Morency. The Packers do need a 3rd running back, so RB P.J. Pope was signed from Chicago's practice squad. Pope had a nice college career, appears to be a pretty good receiver, and played a lot in the preseason for Chicago, so it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him involved in the offense at Buffalo for a few carries and a catch or two. Mike McCarthy seems to like rotating all three running backs during some part of the game each week. The Packers had to release backup C Chris White to sign Pope and now G Jason Spitz becomes the backup center. I don't recall ever seeing Spitz play at center during the preseason. If C Scott Wells did have to come out of a game, it would be better if Spitz slid over and G Tony Moll came in the game at guard. Hopefully LT Chad Clifton is over the injury that kept him out of the game in Miami and the loss of the depth White provided will not be a concern.

Packers 31, Arizona 14. The Packers first home win of the season and their best overall game of the season. The only negative is that it happened against the worst team in the NFL, especially after their collapse at home versus Chicago. Looking at the DVOA breakdown from Football Outsiders, the Packers moved a few spots on the rankings and their was a 9 place jump by special teams and a 7 place jump by the offense.

First Quarter: I don't have the stats, but there were a lot of passes thrown to WR Anquan Boldin, 4th in the NFL in receiving yards, and CB Al Harris was always covering him. Boldin ended with a decent 4 catches for 47 yards, but their offense seemed to stall with them unable to get the ball to Boldin and without WR Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. Harris played Boldin about as well as anybody could. The defense stopped Arizona, a rare quality punt return by CB Charles Woodson set up great field position, and then the whole effort was thrown out by a bizarre fake punt and run/sack of P Jon Ryan. Was he trying to throw to TE Bubba Franks? Was Franks trying to block? Did Bubba have any idea what was going on? It might have been Franks' fault or a completely botched play, but either way it should not be called again this season. Getting teams to fall for misdirection is very important to winning, but trying to be too cute (a bootleg pass attempt by a punter?) should not be done. When the Packers did get the ball back, two things happen that set the tone for the rest of the game. First, mostly runs on the left side between LT Chad Clifton and LG Daryn Colledge blocks, the Packers start dominating Arizona's defensive line. RB Vernand Morency and RB Ahman Green ran very well, and neither player fumbled, but the offensive line gave them a lot to work with. Second, after I wrote last week about how the tight ends and fullback seem to be forgotten members of the offense, QB Brett Favre threw a lot of passes to FB Brandon Miree and TE David Martin. The Packers did this all game; dominate Arizona's defensive line, no turnovers, and spread the ball around to different receivers.

Second Quarter: While the Packers offense dominates, Arizona's offense struggles. RB Edgerrin James had his best game as a Cardinal, but that is faint praise. He still only ran for 3.5 yards/carry. Arizona shuffled their offensive line and it gave QB Matt Leinart some time to throw and James some room to run. Still it took Arizona until 6 minutes left in the first half to put together their first decent drive that led to James' TD run. Leinart didn't have much help due to receivers running out of bounds (WR Bryant Johnson) and numerous dropped passes. Overall the defense looked great in this game, but other than QB Rex Grossman, it has been hard to look bad against Arizona this season.

Third Quarter: Just in case Arizona was feeling somewhat empowered after scoring right before halftime to cut the lead to 14 points, the Packers have a long drive to eat up the first 7 minutes of the third quarter, ending in Favre's first TD run since 2001, his first at home since 1998, and his first Lambeau Leap. Although Favre's TD run hurt Arizona, Arizona's answering TD pass was a sign of future (and past) trouble for the pass defense. WR Troy Walters ran wide open on a crossing route for a TD after CB Patrick Dendy let him go off the line of scrimmage. Dendy, and Woodson in previous games, seem to let receivers run away from them, like they are expecting help in the middle from the safeties. But the Packers are playing man-on-man coverage and shouldn't Dendy and Woodson always know that they have to stay with their receivers? It didn't matter in this game, but the Packers are really suspectable to crossing patterns that lead to big gains.

Fourth Quarter: The Packers ran the ball a lot, which made sense because they were dominating the line of scrimmage and wanted to run out the clock, while Arizona continued to struggle on offense. Arizona had a couple of 20+ yard plays, but for most of the game, Arizona had to slowly work their way down the field, which isn't easy with a poor offensive line.