Tuesday, January 10, 2017

What Are The Packers Like Without Jordy Nelson?

So the real bad news from after the Green Bay Packers' victory over the Giants:
WR Jordy Nelson is the No. 3 ranked receiver according to Football Outsiders and led the NFL with 14 touchdowns. What's more impressive is that most of his production came during "run the table" time. He was so much better in the latter part of the season, and there's no way they're better without him than with him.

The good news is that the Packers did score 38 points against the Giants last weekend without him. But the bad news is that the offense fell off a cliff in 2015 without him. Assuming he cannot play in Dallas, the offense should look like they did in the 2nd half against the Giants instead of the struggling 2015 unit.

WR Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. Without Nelson in 2015, both receivers struggled and Adams was a disaster. But 2016 is a different season for Adams. Though he's far from a perfect receiver (he's dropped three TD passes over the past few games) he's much better playing the role of a short(er) route runner. Cobb looked like a different man after having taken a couple weeks off to rest and playing exclusively in the slot against an over-matched nickel corner.

WR Geronimo Allison. If he's dropped a pass this season, I don't remember it. He's like the anti-Adams, and he's taken over the role the Packers seemed to foist onto Adams in 2015 as a deep threat. He doesn't draw a lot of attention in coverage and he's a good route runner (without a lot of speed). He'll kind of take over the James Jones role from last season.

TE Jared Cook. What a difference he's made. When Nelson was out last season, I expected the Packers would lean heavily on Eddie Lacy and the tight end position to make up some of the production. But Lacy struggled with his weight in 2015 and TE Richard Rodgers just can't do too much on offense. But Cook can truly replace some of what Nelson provided and he's been a major part of the "run the table" offense.

RB Ty Montgomery. Somehow he avoided destroying all the ligaments in his knee when he got twisted up like a pretzel in the 2nd half against the Giants, so he's still a factor. He's what I hoped Lacy could have been as a rushing threat and a receiver out of the backfield.

RB Christine Michael. Oh, the burst through the line. He doesn't bring a lot of skills to the field (he's not better than Montgomery) but when he finds a running lane, he explodes through it. He'll only get a few touches, but he'll be a home run threat when it happens.

As much as I'll miss seeing Nelson in Dallas (assuming that's the case), the additions of Cook, Montgomery and Michael make up for it in ways that the Packers didn't have on their roster in 2015 (Montgomery was out most of the 2015 season).

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