The sudden death of VP of football operations Mark Hatley is a huge loss for the Packers. I knew next to nothing of Mark Hatley personally, go read Pat Kirwan's column on nfl.com for some personal background on Mark Hatley, so I will talk about what he did for the Packers.

Jsonline.com described Hatley as the "second in command" of personnel decisions behind Mike Sherman. Although Sherman is technically the GM and Coach, I believe Sherman is the head coach first and he has the final decision on personnel, but Hatley did much of the routine travel and day-to-day grunt work of a GM, because Sherman worked day-to-day as the head coach. I became familar with Hatley while he was in charge of player personnel for Chicago from 1997 to 2001. Hatley might always be remembered in Chicago for his bad decisions to draft RB Curtis Enis and QB Cade McNown in the first rounds, but Hatley did a good job of rebuilding Chicago from stratch after Chicago bottomed out in the mid-1990s post Dave Wannstedt. He drafted Chicago icon LB Brian Urlacher and assembled the great (and lucky) 13-3 Chicago team of 2001. It appears that Chicago improved every offseason under Hatley, and you can't yet say that about current GM Jerry Angelo. All the top players in Chicago over the last 3 seasons (LB Brian Urlacher, S Mike Brown, RB Anthony Thomas, C Olin Kreutz, WR Marty Booker) were drafted and signed during Hatley's tenure.

With the Packers, Hatley contributed to the draft classes of 2002-2004. The 2002 draft class netted star WR Javon Walker along with current Packers DB Marques Anderson, RB Najeh Davenport, and DE Aaron Kampman who are all likely to contribute significantly in 2004 (hopefully QB Brett Favre stays healthy and QB Craig Nall remains firmly on the bench). The 2003 draft class hasn't turned out as well, but it did net star LB Nick Barnett along with possible contributors DT Kenny Peterson and DT James Lee. Overall, the Packers roster has improved since Hatley was hired in 2001, and Hatley deserves credit for it as much as anyone. Hatley's death is a huge loss for the Packers.

One week to go before training camp opens. How's Drew Rosenhaus doing on trading his client, DB Mike McKenzie? I expect McKenzie will report to training camp a week or two before the start of the season, because he won't give up his money or pay back his prorated signing bonus to the Packers, and Rosenhaus won't be able to find a team willing to offer a useful current NFL player or a future number 1 draft pick for McKenzie.

The Packers signed former Cleveland DE Tyrone Rogers to a minimum contract. Cleveland couldn't come to terms with their free agent Rogers, the Packers didn't want DE Jamal Reynolds, so it ends up as a pseudo-trade of two defensive ends. Rogers just turned 30 so he probably won't be better with the Packers than he was with Cleveland. Rogers appears to have some pass rush ability; in limited playing time in 2003 he recorded 1 sack and 2 tackles for a loss, and in limited playing time in 2002 he recorded 3 sacks and 4.5 tackles for a loss, which out performed former top picks DE Courtney Brown and DT Gerard Warren that season. It would appear that Warren has as much ability to get into the backfield and make a play as DE Chukie Nwokorie, and he has better stats than starting DE Aaron Kampman. Rogers is a good size to play defensive end at 6'5" and 280 lbs. The Packers have a lot of defensive tackles on the roster but only 4 defensive ends, including Rogers. If Rogers has a good training camp and the Packers decide they need more depth at defensive end then at defensive tackle, its possible Rogers could take away a roster spot from someone like DT Larry Smith, DT Kenny Peterson, or rookie DT Corey Williams.

Jsonline.com had an article about RB Najeh Davenport opening training camp as the primary kick returner. Everything that special teams coach John Bonamego said in the article is true; "He's a big, powerful bull with speed." Last season, Davenport looked just as fast as any kick returner in the NFL, plus he has size and running back instincts that help him run through arm tackles and he has good vision in the open field. I thought footballoutsiders.com had him rated highly on kickoffs in 2003, but I can't find any mention of it on their website. Davenport could be the best kick returner in the NFL in 2004.

Jsonline.com also had an article about how TE Bubba Franks isn't a good fit in the Packers offense. Franks has been invited to a couple of Pro Bowls because this isn't a golden age of tight ends, and his 30 catches, 500 yards, a few TDs is good enough to make him one of the best in the non-TE Tony Gonzalez NFC. As a general rule, a team should never let a Pro Bowl talent in his 20s leave in free agency, because such players (who are healthy) are rarely available in free agency. Franks won't get a contract like Gonzalez in free agency, but he will get a big (for a tight end) contract because of his Pro Bowl appearances. Footballoutsiders.com ranked Franks very poorly in 2003, below TE Jason Witten and TE Mark Campbell, but surprisingly above even lower ranked Pro Bowl Baltimore TE Todd Heap. Heap was hurt in 2003 because although he caught 112 passes, he only caught a lowly 51% of the passes thrown to him, which is a criticism of Baltimore's offense (Heap was their only threat for 2/3 of the 2003 season in the passing game) as it is a criticism of Heap. Franks was ranked low by footballoutsiders.com because he didn't do much with the opportunites when they presented themselves. He is an asset to the Packers, but lesser players might be able to replace his current level of production in the Packers offense.

DE Jamal Reynolds was claimed by Cleveland off waivers, according to espn.com, who also report that Reynolds will be battling for a roster spot as a backup defensive end against former Dallas first round draft choice bust DE Ebenezer Ekuban. As I have said before, Reynolds's knee injuries have probably ended his NFL career before it ever started, and its unlikely Reynolds will beat out Ekuban and make Cleveland's opening 2004 roster.

The Packers picked up LB Tyreo Harrison on waivers from Philadelphia, who was probably released because Philadelphia signed LB Jeremiah Trotter. On a side note, Philadelphia's signing of Trotter has to be the best value signing in the NFL this offseason. Philadelphia reacquires a 27 year old former Pro Bowl linebacker who lead Washington in tackles in 2003 for under $1 million. For comparison, Cincinnati signed part-time starting LB Nate Webster, 26, from Tampa Bay as their new middle linebacker back in March for 5 years, $11.3 million with a $2.5 million signing bonus, according to The Cincinnati Enquirer online.

There is very little available regarding Harrison online. Thehuddlereport.com ranked Harrison as the 157th best player available in the 2002 draft, which would have projected out into the 5th round, and Philadelphia selected him in the 6th round. Harrison hardly played on defense at all for Philadelphia in 2003 and he was inactive for 4 of their 16 games, but he was activated for both of their playoff games. Its possible that the Packers remember his efforts on special teams in their playoff game against Philadelphia last season, and they think he could contribute on special teams for them in 2004. The Packers now have 8 linebackers on their roster, and it is likely that only 6 linebackers will make the opening roster. Harrison has some work ahead of him to move up the depth chart and make the opening roster in 2004.

The Packers lost out on free agent LB Jason Gildon. Gildon could have helped the Packers as a pass rusher on 3rd downs, opposite DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, and as an outside linebacker if the Packers occasionally switched to a 3-4 alignment. Gildon's career is winding down, and its possible that any number of players currently on the Packers roster can perform as well as Gildon and equal or exceed the 6 sacks Gildon recorded in 2003. Buffalo gave Gildon a $500,000 signing bonus, and the Packers might have had trouble fitting Gildon along with all the unsigned rookies under the salary cap.

Football announcers love to say that defense wins championships, but are the most consistant teams in the NFL great offensive teams? Aaron Schatz on footballoutsiders.com was writing about Baltimore and he hinted at a new projection system he is working on that projected Baltimore as the worst team in the AFC in 2004. Why? Baltimore has a 2000 yard runner in RB Jamal Lewis and the best defense in the NFL? Because defense is less consistant than offense says Aaron. He hasn't published his system yet, but his theory sounds reasonable.

How did Tampa Bay fall from Super Bowl champion in 2002 down to missing the playoffs in 2003? Tampa Bay's defense was ranked the second best in the NFL in 2003 according to footballoutsiders.com (ahead of 2003 Super Bowl winner New England) and the team was essentially the same roster in 2003 as in 2002. Tampa Bay's DT Anthony McFarland was on ESPN's Cold Pizza saying that Tampa Bay's defense was just as good in 2003 as in 2002, except for a few plays over the course of the season. That makes some sense, as Tampa Bay's defense slipped from a percentage ranking on footballoutsiders.com of -30% in 2002 down to -22.5% in 2003. A defense as good as Tampa Bay's defense should have carried that team into the playoffs, but a great defense appears to be no guaranty of success.

Aaron's theory also explains the Packers success with QB Brett Favre as a starting quarterback. The Packers have not had a losing record with Favre as their starting quarterback, which is a remarkable run of winning in the NFL. The Packers have only one championship during Favre's career, but only the 1996 defense could have been considered the best in the NFL. Maybe defense does win championships and maybe a team is unlikely to win the championship without a great defense, but the odds are long of making the playoffs without a consistant offense. Its just another reason that the Packers need to reassure Favre everyday that retirement isn't even an option for him.

DE Jamal Reynolds has come back (after flunking his physical with Indianapolis) and now has left again (having been released), according to various news sources. It is a weird situation because Reynolds was healthy enough to participate in two mini-camps with the Packers, but now Indianapolis is blaming a 2002 knee injury and surgery?

Maybe Reynolds was undersized to play at defensive end, but it could be that his knee injury ended his career before it ever started. Reynolds had microfacture surgery on his knee, the microfacture procedure attempts to regrow cartilage, and players have rarely come back from it to play at a high level.

Retired DT Eric Swann and DT John Randle never were the same impact players after they had the surgery. CB Jason Sehorn was a superstar, but now after the surgery he has been released by two different teams in two consecutive seasons. Denver OL Dan Neil has come back from it, but Denver's offensive line is only just slightly above average according to footballoutsiders.com. Carolina RB DeShawn Foster has come back from it to have an outstanding 2003 playoffs, but footballoutsiders.com rated him as one of the worst running backs during the 2003 regular season. LB Kevin Hardy has come back from it and had two solid seasons in Dallas and Cincinnati, but it does not appear that anyone considers Hardy a premier linebacker anymore.

Various articles on Reynolds over the years have questioned his work ethic, but even if that rumor is true, its hard for someone with superior physical skills to immediately turn himself around into an overachiever type player when suddenly the explosiveness that he used to take for granted is gone. It is unlikely that Reynolds will get a second chance in the NFL, because teams are unlikely to take chances on defensive linemen with knee problems (see fellow "can't miss" Florida State alum DE Andre Wadsworth as Exhibit A). In the end, Reynolds was a talented player who's career was derailed by injuries before it ever got a chance to start.

Publications are gushing about WR Robert Ferguson and WR Javon Walker.

Profootballweekly.com reported that a prominent agent said that Ferguson sold himself short (has an agent ever felt like a client got too much from a team?) while "one league source" said Ferguson is a "solid investment". Profootballweekly.com compared Ferguson to Pro Bowl wide receivers Rod Smith and Hines Ward. Its too hard to compare Ferguson to many NFL wide receivers because he came into the league a couple of years younger than most wide receivers and with so little experience. He had to sit out his first season entirely just to learn how to play. Its easy to compare Smith and Ward to Ferguson because they are all about the same size (6'0" 200 lbs. approximately), but both Smith and Ward were more productive in their first season as a starter than Ferguson was in his first starting season. Ferguson's lesser production could be the result of Ferguson younger age in comparison to the age of Smith and Ward in their first seasons as a starter. Overall, it was a risk for the Packers to reward Ferguson with a relatively large signing bonus (over $3 million) based on modest production so far in his career.

John Clayton reported on espn.com that Walker had "an exhausting offseason training regiment" and is ready to become the number one wide receiver for the Packers in 2004. Clayton reported that Walker "was virtually unstoppable against the Packers' cornerbacks in minicamp". Walker is a fantastic, but inconsistent, talent. Sometimes in 2003, Walker looked like a young Jerry Rice with his size and speed, and sometimes he looked lost. It should be expected that Walker will be "virtually unstoppable" at times in 2004, but it also should be expected that he will make some bad plays in 2004.

Former GM Ron Wolf rebuilt the Packers into a champion, but he had very little success with first round draft choices during his tenure. Although 6 of his 10 first round picks are still playing in the NFL, only TE Bubba Franks remains with the Packers, but he is the best of the bunch, and the only one of the six to be named to a Pro Bowl. Only T Ross Verba and DE Vonnie Holliday might be starting for other teams in 2004. It is highly unlikely that DE Jamal Reynolds will find himself starting for Indianapolis in 2004.

Still this was a nice trade for Indianapolis, who acquired a potentially useful situational pass rusher in Reynolds at a low price. Reynolds has sporatically shown some pass rush ability when given the opportunity and he only cost Indianapolis a modest roster bonus (espn.com reported it was just over $200,000) plus a low future draft choice. Reynolds has the potential to provide just as many sacks on 3rd down plays as any of the free agents currently available, such as LB Jason Gildon, but at a much lower price.

It was good to see the Packers receive something in return for Reynolds, when it was apparent all offseason that they did not have any plans for him in the 2004 season. While the Packers have a lot of options to play at defensive end on rushing downs, the Packers still need to find out who is going to be rushing the quarterback on 3rd down from the defensive end position opposite DE KGB. DE Chukie Nwokorie and DE Aaron Kampman had a lot of opportunities in 2003, but neither is a situational speed rusher. LB Marcus Wilkins was injured for much of 2003 and he would also be considered as the 3rd down pass rusher at defensive end if he is healthy. The Packers could find themselves mixing and matching a lot at defensive end in 2004, although the situation became clearer with the departure of Reynolds.

Well I was wrong about the signing bonus for WR Robert Ferguson, who I thought would receive a signing bonus slightly lower than the one given to Cleveland WR Dennis Northcutt ($2.25 million) back in May, but the Packers blew past that amount and gave Ferguson a $3.5 million signing bonus.

The Packers are paying for what Ferguson can become and not how he has performed over the last two seasons. If the Packers are paying Ferguson how he has performed over the last two seasons, his contract should have been similar to the following three offseason signings. WR Dez White signed for 2 years and $2 million total contract with Atlanta after catching as many TD passes and more receptions over the last two seasons in Chicago, and White is the same age (24) as Ferguson. Minnesota signed WR Marcus Robinson for a $2 million signing bonus after he caught 6 TD passes over the last 5 games in 2003 for Baltimore. Northcutt has caught far more receiptions for more receiving yards over the last two seasons, same number of TD catches as Ferguson, plus he established himself as one of the more dangerous return men in the NFL, but Ferguson received 50% more in signing bonus than Northcutt.

On the other hand, the New York Jets paid WR Justin McCareins a $7 million signing bonus after he broke out with 7 TD receptions in his third NFL season with Tennessee in 2003. Although McCareins had a great 2003 season, the New York Jets are paying him for what he could do over the next few seasons based on 2003 and his physical abilities. Similarily the Packers are paying Ferguson based on a solid 2003 season and what he could do over the next few seasons.

Overall, the Packers paid a premium based on Ferguson's past performance because they expect him to improve next season. He didn't improve much from 2002 to 2003 and he has had trouble staying healthy, so right now his contract extension looks like a risk.

It is surprising to see the Packers sign Robert Ferguson to a contract extension. Although Ferguson was drafted in 2001, he didn't start playing until 2002 and in the last two seasons he has averaged about 30 catches, 400 yards, and 3 to 4 TD receptions. Ferguson only played 1 year of major college football, so he has learned a lot in the NFL, but it would have been reasonable to wait and see how he plays in 2004 before committing long term to him. He has also had problems staying healthy, so that could be another concern.

On the other hand, the Packers are counting on him in 2004 because the Packers lack depth at wide receiver behind him, Javon Walker and Donald Driver. Ferguson has the size and speed that every NFL team wants at wide receiver, and if Ferguson had left after the 2004 season, then the Packers would have made wide receiver a priority next offseason and during the 2005 draft. Espn.com reported that Ferguson's base salaries over the 5 year contract are just over $6 million, and he couldn't have signed for a huge signing bonus. His signing bonus will not be as high as Driver's $4 million signing bonus that Driver signed in 2002, and should be less than the $2.25 million signing bonus given by Cleveland in May 2004 to WR Dennis Northcutt. If Ferguson received a $1.75 million signing bonus and can emerge in 2004 as a reliable and consistant deep passing threat, then this will be a great signing.

The Packers have been quiet since the end of the June minicamp and the signing of QB Tim Couch, not that it is unexpected since it is only the end of June and training camp hasn't opened yet. Looking around the rest of the NFC North, winning the division is more important than ever since realignment caused more competition for fewer wild card spots, here our some of the stories getting press this June.

Minnesota. The team released 2003 starting strong side LB Henri Crockett and 2003 starting middle LB Greg Biekert retired, leaving only LB Chris Claiborne as a return starter. Claiborne is moving to the strong side (over the tight end), second year LB E.J. Henderson (coming off May knee surgery) will start in the middle, and the weak side LB spot is a wide open battle between LB Mike Nattiel and rookie LB Dontarrious Thomas, according to profootballweekly.com. Minnesota's defense was awful after week 6 last season and a revamped linebacker group along with a very young defensive line will probably lead to a inconsistant defense in 2004.

Chicago. Their defense is getting younger and only LB Brian Urlacher is a true impact defensive player. No one on Chicago's offense could be accused of being an impact player yet. The defense is being revamped under new coach Lovie Smith, which is to be expected by the former defensive coordinator. Contracts for draft choices are slotted (based on last year's contract plus 5% or so increase for this season, therefore DT Tommie Harris should be paid the same as last year's 15th overall pick plus 5% approximately), and Chicago had generally worked out contract terms with Harris' agent in the minutes before they selected Harris in the April draft, but now Harris has a new agent, according to espn.com. As espn.com reported, it is probably not a problem, due to the slotting of draft choices' contracts, but it could delay Harris from participating in training camp from day 1.

Detroit. The biggest story for them is the weight of DT Shawn Rogers. I've read one story about it on profootballweekly.com and probably another on espn.com as well. Rogers should have been drafted in the first round a couple of years ago because he can dominate, but he has a history of injury and weight problems. He has the most potential of any player on Detroit's defense, but it is Rogers responsibility to make it happen. Another story is the charges of insurance fraud against new FS Brock Marion. Detroit has spent a lot of money to revamp their secondary, signing Marion and DB Fernando Bryant this offseason to play alongside last season's big free agent DB Dre Bly. Detroit was counting on Marion to solidify their secondary which has lacked consistant free safety play for a few seasons, but the criminal investigation against Marion probaly derailed those plans.

Overall, all three teams have question marks, which is to be expected because none of them made the playoffs last season, but all these changes are obvious attempts to improve their respective teams.

The Packers released their financial records for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2003 and ending March 31, 2004. Prior to the renovation of Lambeau Field, the Packers operating revenue had slipped in comparison to other teams due to many new stadiums (Seahawks Stadium, Reliant Stadium (Houston), Heinz Field (Pittsburgh), Ford Field (Detroit), Gillette Stadium (New England)) and the Packers would have probably slipped further this fiscal year if not for the Lambeau Field renovation with new stadiums opening in Chicago and Philadelphia.

I thought it was important for Brown County and the city of Green Bay to pass the sales tax referendum that kept the city's biggest source of civic pride financially able to compete in the NFL and not risk losing the team. Without the renovation, the Packers would likely be around 25th out of 32 teams in gross revenue.

However, when Packers treasurer John Underwood says that the team is "headed for financial oblivion" he is not being honest with Packers fans. I would define "financial oblivion" as bankrupt but Underwood's interpretation of it more analogous to driving a Mazda in a league full of Ferraris. The Packers still collect $100 million per season in TV revenue and would sell out Lambeau Field every Sunday even if the team returned to a post-Lombardi/pre-Favre level of performance.

Without the added income, the Packers probably wouldn't have the financial resources to keep players like DT Cleditus Hunt or DE KGB, or sign a free agent like DE Joe Johnson or DE Reggie White. Obviously some of the millions the Packers spend on signing bonuses are better spent than others, and having the most money in the NFL does not necessarily buy you a winner (just ask a Washington fan). The Packers would probably be able to retain one player like QB Brett Favre and try to build a team of cheaper and younger players around him.

I'm glad the Packers have the financial resources to maintain and improve their roster, but the Packers should be more honest as to what are the financial realities for the team.

QB Tim Couch finally signed with the Packers this week after months of negotiations. Back in March, I compared Couch to QB Donovan McNabb, and Couch has a higher career completion percentage (59.8% to 57%) and a high yards per attempt (6.49 to 6.16), but what ended Couch's career in Cleveland was his career 0.95 touchdown passes to 1 interception ratio. If Couch can show can take better care of the football and prove that he can lead a team, then he can turn his career around. The 1 year deal is a good start to see if Couch can actually beat out QB Craig Nall for the backup job and then determine what future Couch has with the Packers.

Last week the Packers signed TE Steve Bush. He's only caught 46 passes in his 6 year NFL career, but he is a giant at 6'3" 280 lbs. If he can show some strong run blocking, he will show something that neither TE Bubba Franks or TE David Martin specialize in. The Packers have two inexperience tight ends (TE Keith Willis and TE Tony Donald) on their roster competing for the 3rd tight end spot too, but if the Packers want someone with experience to backup Franks and Martin, Bush would be the man.

CB Derek Combs was cut this week by the Packers. He is the 3rd defensive back released since this April's draft (S Eric Crouch and CB/S Bryant Westbrook were the first two) and it is not a surprise that some defensive backs would be released after the Packers drafted two defensive backs (CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas) in the first and third rounds. Combs showed a little bit in 2003, but only on special teams or has the 4th cornerback. He would have had a hard time beating out CB Erwin Swiney for the last cornerback spot on the roster, so its not surprising that Combs has already lost that battle after the June mini-camp. Swiney, along with CB Chris Johnson, are both going to have a hard time making the Packers roster as it currently stands if CB Mike McKenzie returns to the team.

Jsonline.com had a number of articles from the June minicamp yesterday, but there are just a few points that caught my attention.

First was an article on DE Aaron Kampman. Sometimes Kampman seems to be everything an NFL team expects in a power defensive end because he won't be pushed off the corner while he forces the running back to go further outside before turning upfield and he generates some pass rush by pushing the offensive tackle back into the quarterback. Othertimes Kampman seems to be pushed around and it is obvious that isn't the strongest or most talented defensive end in the NFL. Kampman is only 24 years old and he is still learning how to play, but he will probably never be an anchor on the defensive line which is why the Packers spent most of this offseason looking at free agent defensive ends and drafted multiple defensive lineman in this April's draft who are being auditioned at defensive end and tackle. Kampman has shown the potential to be a reliable starter in the NFL and he has shown the dedication to working out and film study that coaches love. Kampman deserves to start in 2004 and be given the full season to show that he can be the Packers starting defensive end for the next few seasons.

Second was that Kampman really should never have had any opportunity to start with the Packers because the Packers signed DE Joe Johnson to start in Kampman's position the same year that the Packers drafted Kampman. Yesterday, the Packers release Johnson, who has been a big bust. He doesn't rank as one of the biggest busts ever in free agency because teams are paying too much for marginal or problem players every year. Denver's fiasco with DT Daryl Gardner is one recent example, while Dallas's signing of WR Joey Galloway for $42 million and 2 1st round draft choices and Carolina's signing of DT Sean Gilbert for approx $46 million and 2 1st round draft choices are probably the two biggest free agent busts ever. Teams that overpay for marginal talent (like Atlanta's signing of ex-Packer CB Tyrone Williams) hurts but not as bad as when a team spends top dollar on a truly talented player with a history of physical injuries or disciplinary problems. Washington seems to find new ways to burn money every offseason. For example, Philadelphia should have been wary of the injury history surrounding DE Jevon Kearse in Tennessee, but they still decided to pay him a $16 million signing bonus this offseason. Just as Philadelphia should have been concerned about Kearse, the Packers should have been careful with Johnson, who has a lot of talent but he had a lot of injuries even before he was signed by the Packers. The Packers took a gamble, just as many teams in the NFL have done in the past few years, and the Packers lost it.

Third was that WR Carl Ford has an injured hamstring. It doesn't seem to be too serious, but Ford has just reinjured it. Ford showed some promise last preseason before the Packers hid him on injured reserve for all of last season. Ford's injury wasn't too serious last season, but it was unlikely he would have made the roster because of the injury (he was expected to miss a few weeks) and he possibly would have been offered a contract by another team and wouldn't have settled for a spot on the Packers practice squad. This season he comes into the preseason as the likely number four wide receiver (clearly behind WR Donald Driver, WR Robert Ferguson, and WR Javon Walker). It can be a very important position, last season both Driver and Ferguson were injured by week 2 and the Packers had to sign WR Antonio Freeman. If Ford can't stay healthy or doesn't perform like he did last season, then its very likely the Packers look to sign a veteran free agent wide receiver again this season for some added depth.

Fourth, Cleveland finally gave up and released QB Tim Couch. Couch still wants a starting job or a one year contract so he can find a starting job in 2005. Its unknown how many teams will show interest in Couch now that he can be signed without trading a draft pick in compensation for him, but now it is possible the Packers will offer him a 1 year contract and let him compete with QB Craig Nall for the backup quarterback spot.

Both jsonline.com and packersnews.com reported that free agent LB Jason Gildon visited with the Packers last Friday. It really surprised me that Gildon would even visit, and that the Packers were the first team he visited after Pittsburgh released him. Gildon would not be a good fit for the Packers 4-3 defense, because its likely that Gildon has lost a step and would have trouble defending receivers and running backs near the sidelines. If Gildon started with the Packers in their standard 4-3 defense, it would be likely that Gildon would play the strong side linebacker and replace LB Hannibal Navies. Defensive coordinator Bob Slowik was reported by packersnews.com as saying that "he would consider using some 3-4 [defensive alignment]" and that Gildon could play in the dime (3 defensive linemen, 2 linebacker and 6 defensive backs). The Packers primary need for Gildon is as a situational pass rusher opposite DE KGB, but Gildon brings an added dimension as a pass rushing linebacker that the Packers do not currently have on the roster. Starting linebackers Na'il Diggs and Navies have combined for 9 sacks in their careers, while Gildon has averaged 9 sacks per season over his last 8 years starting with Pittsburgh. Gildon would be a tremendous addition to the Packers, adding an element to their defense that is currently absent, but it still seems unlikely that Gildon will sign with the Packers and more likely that he will end up in Houston, Cleveland, or Baltimore.

Its confusing keeping track of Keith Willis. Espn.com and yahoo.com list 44 year old DE Keith Willis on the Packers roster. Good old number 93. Except they mean rookie free agent TE Keith Willis from Virginia Tech who has taken number 81. DE Keith Willis had a solid 10 year career with Pittsburgh in the 1980s, but he retired in 1994 and probably is not part of the Packers plans for the 2004 season. However it is an open competition behind TEs Bubba Franks and David Martin for the 3rd tight end roster spot, and TE Keith Willis has a very good chance at making the 2004 Packers roster.

It was surprising that packersnews.com reported the CB Michael Hawthorne started with the first team defense in place of absent CB Mike McKenzie for the first week of the June minicamp. The Packers had given repeated indications that Hawthorne was a safety first and a cornerback second this offseason, even espn.com lists Hawthorne as a safety, although it might be temporary until rookies CB Ahmad Carroll and CB Joey Thomas learn the playbook.

Even more surprising was that when CB Al Harris sat out with a bad ankle on Friday, free agent CB Chris Watson played on the first team defense in place of Harris, according to jsonline.com. When the Packers first signed Watson before the draft, I compared Watson favorably to high priced free agent CB Jason Webster, who signed with Atlanta this offseason. Although Watson has proven himself to be a useful 3rd or 4th cornerback when he played in Buffalo, he is coming off a lost season in Detroit (injury) and he seemed like a longshot to make the Packers. Apparently Watson has showed more promise than second year CB Chris Johnson, and now Johnson has to be considered the longshot to make the Packers. Jsonline.com reported that former-CB Bhawoh Jue is out of the rotation at cornerback and working with the second team defense at free safety, and he will have to battle for a roster spot with S Curtis Fuller.

As far as starting off on the wrong foot: packersnews.com had a quote from defensive coordinator Bob Slowik that Carroll didn't play well in April's mini-camp because of "all those draft parties". Although Slowik followed up by saying "there's a noticeable improvement now" with Carroll, it sounds like Carroll is a early candidate for the doghouse and being deactived for Sunday ala DE Jamal Reynolds.

Current cornerback depth chart (excluding McKenzie) reads: 1. Harris; 2. Hawthorne; Nickel. Watson; Dime. Thomas.

So what did Minnesota do this offseason to address their team's weaknesses? Did they break up a strong unit?

Minnesota. I always like Minnesota's offseasons. They always seem to improve their team by drafting a promissing player in the first round but few of their other picks ever work out. RBs Moe Williams, Doug Chapman, and Ontario Smith have had some success over the last couple of years and they were all mid-round selections, but Minnesota's offense has been very kind to their running backs over the last decade and all of them have taken a back seat when star 1st round running backs Robert Smith or Michael Bennett have been starting. The only three current exceptions remaining on the roster from their poor post-1st round draft selections are C Matt Birk, TE Jimmy Kleinsasser, and LB Nick Rogers (and Rogers is in danger of losing his starting job). Minnesota has a pretty poor record of bringing in impact free agents either, with only ex-QB Randall Cunningham coming to my mind as a great signing. Their organizational inability to build depth around their usually excellent first picks has probably been the main cause for why Minnesota looks better on paper than in performance.

Minnesota has arguably the best offense (statistically) in the NFL. I placed the qualifier "statistically" on the assessment of their offense, because it seems to go through stretches where it can't be stopped (6-0 start last season) then stretches where it can't seem to get anything going (0-4 after 6-0 start). The biggest weakness it has had is replacing ex-WR Cris Carter as the receiver opposite WR Randy Moss. 2nd year WR Nate Burleson might take the step forward to fill this position, but he faded as the 2003 season went on. WR Marcus Robinson was signed as a free agent, but Robinson was given up for dead before he was reborn with a 4 touchdown domination of Seattle in week 12 last season. Robinson finished the 2003 season strong, but that was his first sign of life since his serious 2000 knee injury derailed his promissing career.

Minnesota's run defense was an interesting beast in 2003. Footballoutsiders.com rated it slightly above average (17th overall) but it was torched on big runs (only Kansas City was worse at giving up big runs). DT Fred Robbins left for big money in New York (Giants) and MLB Greg Biekert retired. Up the middle DT Chris Hovan remains, maybe ex-Packer DT Steve Martin can help, or maybe DE Kevin Williams moves over to tackle to help replace Robbins. MLB E.J. Henderson was projected as a 1st round pick last year, but Minnesota grabbed him in the 2nd round and are now hoping he can improve the run defense. Rookie linebacker Dontarrious Thomas was picked in the 2nd round this April, he has a lot of speed, and he could take a starting job away from weakside linebacker Rogers, which could improve the run defense. This year's first round pick DE Kenechi Udeze has pass rush ability and can play the run too. If Thomas and Udeze win starting jobs, then Minnesota will rely on four players 23 years old or younger (Udeze, Williams, Henderson, and Thomas) to anchor their run defense. Overall, it isn't clear whether this unit will be improved in 2004 and might have to wait until 2005 to see substantial improvement.

Minnesota had an average number of sacks in 2003 but were above average in sacks per pass attempt according to footballoutsiders.com. This unit can only improve with the top 2 sack men from last year returning (DE Lance Johnstone and Williams) and the addition of Udeze. Minnesota was 2nd in the NFL in interceptions (28) but footballoutsiders.com ranked the unit below average (17th) and their season was defined by the last second collapse by the secondary at Arizona in week 17. Gone is CB Denard Walker, in is CB Antonie Winfield. Winfield was highly regarded but he is short (5'9") and he reminds me of former Chicago CB Thomas Jones, another highly regarded Buffalo free agent but Jones flopped in Chicago after signing as a free agent. Winfield and Jones had one thing in common (other than starting their careers in Buffalo); they were regarded as exceptional in coverage although they recorded few interceptions. Winfield only has 6 interceptions for his career (58 starts in 72 games). Teams might have been avoiding Winfield, but that seems unlikely because Buffalo CB Nate Clements started opposite Winfield and he played like a number one cornerback (12 INTs and 40 pass defenses in 43 career games started and 48 games). The pass rush should be improved, but it is unclear whether Winfield can single-handedly improve the pass defense.

Minnesota's special teams were one of the worst in the NFL last season, ranked 31st overall according to footballoutsiders.com. They seemed to play pretty well against the Packers last season, so they must have sucked the rest of the season. No kicks were returned for touchdowns and K Aaron Elling made an unremarkable 72% of his field goals attempts. P Eddie Johnson was 2nd worst in the league in net punt average and 4th worst at kicks inside the 20 yard line, so P Darren Bennett was brought in to challenge Johnson. Bennett did very well in San Diego last season, 5th best at kicks inside the 20 yard line and while only 16th in net punt average. Bennett will probably win the punting job and he would be likely to improve the unit.

After the Packers drafted two cornerbacks with their top 2 draft picks, it was inevitable that the Packers clear out some of their marginal players in the secondary. First DB Bryant Westbrook was cut and now S Eric Crouch was cut. If CB Mike McKenzie returns, then him and CB Al Harris will start with rookie CB Ahmad Carroll and rookie CB Joey Thomas as the nickel and dime cornerbacks. If no McKenzie, then its possible second year speedster CB Chris Johnson is the dime cornerback, with recently resigned DB Michael Hawthorne and DB Bhawoh Jue battling with S Curtis Fuller and S Marques Anderson to backup FS Darren Sharper and SS Mark Roman. Crouch wasn't going to be given any opportunity at cornerback, so Hawthorne and Jue's flexibility to play cornerback or safety gave them an obvious advantage over Crouch.

More QB Tim Couch negotiating between the Packers and Cleveland. It is obvious that Couch will only accept a one year deal, so he can go find a starting job next season, and jsonline.com reported that the Packers won't trade for Couch unless he accepts a two year contract. Couch will not accept a two year deal, the Packers will start June mini camp this week, and the Packers interest in Couch will be over.

Jsonline.com reported the Packers had some interest in soon to be released LB Jason Gildon. He could be an effective situational pass rusher opposite DE KGB and could even push LB Hannibal Navies to the bench. But jsonline.com reported that three AFC teams (Baltimore, Cleveland, and Houston) that are very familiar with Gildon's abilities and have more salary cap room than the Packers are also interested. Baltimore would probably be his first choice, but I don't know where Gildon would fit in alongside linebackers Peter Boulware and Terrell Suggs. Houston seems his likely destination, where he can teach Houston's rookie 1st round draft choice LB Jason Babin how to play the pass rushing outside linebacker position in a 3-4 defense.

Profootballweekly.com posted that three teams have shown interest in trading for CB Mike McKenzie.

Houston. Their secondary is a work in progress, but they appear unlikely to be interested in McKenzie in any way other than as a 3rd cornerback. CB Aaron Glenn is coming back from a groin injury, but he has practiced in mini-camp and appears ready to play. CB Marcus Coleman is being moved to free safety, while rookie CB Dunta Robinson (10th player taken in 2004 draft) is the likely starter opposite Glenn. CB Kenny Wright seems settled in at 3rd cornerback after his 3 interception, 12 pass defense season in 2003. McKenzie would upgrade the cornerback position in Houston, he would likely start in 2004 while Robinson learns the position as the 3rd cornerback, but I can't imagine Houston would offer much in return for McKenzie.

Pittsburgh. McKenzie would start immediately in Pittsburgh. CB Chad Scott returns for his 8th season in Pittsburgh, but longtime cornerback CB Dewayne Washington left in free agency. Opposite Scott is 7th year CB Deshea Townsend who has only started 17 games in his career. There is very little depth at cornerback, although Pittsburgh did draft well regarded rookie cornerback Richardo Colclough in the 2nd round, who will probably have a steep learning curve after playing college ball at small Tusculum. Pittsburgh is not known for trading, but they are looking to release LB Jason Gildon and might be trying to trade Gildon for McKenzie, but the Packers wouldn't trade for a linebacker likely to be released on June 1 anyway. It seems unlikely that Pittsburgh would offer a high draft choice for McKenzie when they have made so few trades in the past.

New Orleans. New Orleans is one of the few teams in the NFL that commonly makes trades, although they are more likely to trade for a high draft choice (RB Ricky Williams for two 1st round picks, OT Kyle Turley for a 2nd round pick) than trade away a high draft choice (FS Tebucky Jones for 3rd, 4th, and 7th round picks, CB Jason Craft for a 5th round pick). New Orleans has some depth at cornerback with little experience and two veteran cornerbacks in Ashley Ambrose and Fred Thomas. New Orleans' pass defense was below average last season, and the only substantial addition was trading for reserve cornerback Craft. They also let CB Dale Carter leave in free agency, but Carter was not a factor in 2003 due to his umpteenth suspension by the league. The Packers would probably not want to trade McKenzie to New Orleans, because they both play in the NFC and New Orleans could potentially compete with the Packers for a wild card spot in 2004. New Orleans has salary cap room and would probably have no problem offering a package of middle round draft choices for McKenzie, similar to the package given up for Jones, but the Packers would be unlikely to accept that offer.

It seems likely that the Packers will wait McKenzie out rather than accepting any of the offers these teams would likely make to them.

Last Monday I started looking at the offseasons for the other NFC North teams. Did each team address their team's weaknesses? Did any team break up a strong unit?

Chicago. They almost had a .500 record (7-9) but the record masked a poor season. The other two NFC teams with 7-9 records, San Francisco and Tampa Bay, both outscored their opponents during the season, but Chicago was outscored by 63 points. Footballoutsiders.com ranked Chicago 25th between 4-12 Oakland and 5-11 Atlanta. No unit on Chicago could be considered a strength, although their run defense was solid and their special teams led by K Paul Edinger and P Brad Maynard was above average.

Chicago did address some weaknesses. Their biggest weakness last season was the terrible, eye covering performance by QB Kordell Stewart, and Chicago immediately improved the position by dumping Stewart. QB Rex Grossman didn't show much last season (QB rating 74.8 and completion rate of 52.8%) but it was a small sample size and there is no where to go but up from Stewart. Footballoutsiders.com rated Chicago's offensive line as one of the worst in the NFL (26th vs. run and 27th vs. pass) and Chicago spent $14 million in a signing bonus to acquire OT John Tait. Interestingly, Chicago signed OG Ruben Brown from Buffalo, who has been to many Pro Bowls but has long been regarded as overrated, while Buffalo signed ex-Chicago OG Chris Villarrial, essentially trading guards. Brown might have been a salary cap victim in Buffalo, but maybe Buffalo actually preferred Villarrial.

Chicago failed to address a couple of problem areas. Chicago created only 18 sacks last season, the same number of sacks as were recorded by DE Michael Strahan in 2003. Chicago used their top two picks on defensive tackles Tommie Harris and Terry Johnson, but rookie defensive tackles rarely record many sacks, but maybe their presense can help 2nd year DE Michael Haynes. Chicago had little production from their receivers, only WR Marty Booker (along with seldom used but now third WR Justin Gage) generated a positive ranking on footballoutsiders.com, but the entire group of receivers is due for improvement with the upgrade at quarterback (aka dumping Stewart).

Although Chicago didn't really have any strengths to break up, they tried nonetheless to weaken units that played better than average last season. Runstopping DT Keith Traylor left in free agency from the 11th best run defense (footballoutsiders.com ranking), but his loss could be offset by the rookies Harris and Johnson. RB Anthony Thomas had a good rebound 2003 from a slumping sophomore 2002 season, Thomas was ranked by footballoutsiders.com in 2003 between Charlie Garner and Travis Henry, and he establishd himself as a solid second-tier running back. So the first signing in free agency for Chicago is RB Thomas Jones to replace Thomas. Jones was given an opportunity in Tampa Bay in 2003 after it was obvious Tampa Bay was out of the playoffs, and Jones actually showed some signs of life compared to absolutely nothing in his first three NFL seasons in Arizona. However, Jones couldn't beat out RB Michael Pittman for the first three quarters of the 2003 season, and Pittman's ranking by footballoutsiders.com is similar to Thomas. In the end, Jones will probably lose the starting job to Thomas in the preseason and wind up as the 3rd down running back.

It was news on ESPN.com that QB Kerry Collins cancelled his planned visit with the Packers, but it was surprising Collins agreed to come and visit in the first place. If Collins was willing to be the backup quarterback and be paid like a backup quarterback, he would still be on the roster for the New York Giants. Collins and QB Tim Couch want exactly the same thing, to be a big money starting quarterback, and both have been surprised that no one is willing to pay big money for a quarterback prone to making turnovers. Its possible that both Couch and Collins remain free agents until the preseason starts, waiting for a preseason injury or ineffectiveness to open the door to a starting job. But they might be better off deciding before June 1, when QB Kurt Warner becomes a free agent.

Jsonline.com reported that CB Mike McKenzie hired Drew Rosenhaus as his fifth agent in five years. Rosenhaus has developed a reputation as one of the more aggressive agents in the NFL, so this is not a good sign that the Packers can expect McKenzie to return. Rosenhaus told jsonline.com that he was targeting teams with needs at cornerback, but they have to return equal value back to the Packers. That is a short list, when you consider salary cap considerations.

All of Rosenhaus's clients have ties to Florida, McKenzie lives there in the offseason, so I started with Jacksonville. They have the salary cap room, they are rebuilding their secondary, and they could trade disgruntled SS Donovan Darius, however, Darius' availability has been widely known in the NFL and if the Packers had really wanted Darius, they probably could have traded for him before now.

Miami has the salary cap room and a quality player, DE Adewale Ogunleye, that they are having trouble resigning, but no obvious need at cornerback.

San Francisco would have the salary cap room if they traded LB Julian Peterson for McKenzie, but they passed on resigning their CB Ahmad Plummer this offseason so they don't appear to be looking for a veteran corner.

Dallas might have an interest after losing CB Mario Edwards to Tampa Bay, they have the salary cap room, and Dallas is historically accurate in the trading market, but no obvious player they could trade back in return.

Some other teams: Arizona has salary cap room, but its unlikely McKenzie wants to play in Arizona; New Orleans has cap room and would probably listen to an offer, but they probably wouldn't trade anything higher than a 3rd round pick in next season's draft, similar to what they gave up for FS Tebucky Jones last season; Kansas City has salary cap room and still needs to improve their defense, but it isn't obvious what they could trade in return; Houston was interested before the draft according to jsonline.com, but they are pretty tight against the salary cap when you consider the cost of signing their rookies; Philadelphia, San Diego, and Seattle all have some salary cap room, but no other obvious reason to trade for McKenzie.

The entire NFL has known that McKenzie wanted a trade, and any sincerely interested team could have approached the Packers by this point, but apparently no one has done it. It seems unlikely that the Packers and McKenzie will find a trading partner that suits both of them.

As May is the dead time between the draft plus first mini-camp until the June cuts plus June mini-camps, I wanted to take a look at the rest of the NFC North. Did each team address their biggest weakness in the offseason? Did any team break up a strength?

Detroit. So many holes, so little time... Detroit had no running back deserving to start and no wide receiver deserving to start opposite WR Charles Rogers, so RB Kevin Jones and WR Roy Williams filled two needs. Detroit did not address their anemic pass rush. Detroit improved their run defense by drafting LB Teddy Lehman and their offensive line signing free agent OL Damian Woody, but both their run defense and the offensive line played well in 2003. Their biggest hole is at quarterback where QB Joey Harrington improved his completion percentage and QB rating in 2003, but regressed in Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement as calculated by footballoutsiders.com. Unfortunately for Harrington, you can compare his career path so far to fellow Detroit QB Rick Mirer, which is not company Harrington should keep. Detroit should continue to struggle if Harrington stays on the Mirer career path while they continue to have no pass rush and their top rookies are learning their key offensive positions.

One mini-camp was all it took to tell the Packers that undrafted rookie free agent WR Chris Shreve was not meant to be on the team. Shreve had one asset, speed, but that was apparently all he had to offer. On the other hand, undrafted rookie free agent DE Jadae McGuire from Division II West Virginia Tech apparently showed enough to earn a contract. Defensive end is still wide open besides DE KGB, so who knows. Both the release and the signing were reported by jsonline.com.

Jsonline.com has a number of articles about what's going on with the secondary. The competition to start alongside CB Al Harris and FS Darren Sharper is wide open, and will probably remain so until the regular season starts. I'm not even considering CB Mike McKenzie because I still think he is crazy enough to sit out the season, although he hasn't missed a paycheck yet.

Jsonline.com also had another article trying to justify drafting P B.J. Sander. It can't be justified. He shouldn't have been drafted until the 6th or 7th round, and Sander is a longshot to be worth the 3rd round pick. If he really becomes the consistant directional punter the Packers think he can be, then he will be worth it, but the odds are against it happening.

At least the Packers haven't signed QB Damon Huard. QB Kerry Collins seems to be attracting attention from Oakland, according to Yahoo Sports, and when Al Davis wants someone, he usually gets him. Collins seems like a perfect Davis veteran, been to a Super Bowl, not much left in the tank, type of signing. Collins would probably be more interested in Oakland than the Packers because QB Rich Gannon is older and more fragile than QB Brett Favre. Plus, I think Oakland would consider making Gannon a cap casualty in June 2005, while the Packers would never let Favre end his days as a Packer because of the salary cap. QB Tim Couch is still looking for a job, but I haven't read about any teams other than the Packers and Chicago who are interested in him. Both Chicago and the Packers are strictly backup jobs, although its more likely Couch could start in Chicago. Right now I can't imagine any team trading for Couch, and more teams might appear as possible suitors once Cleveland releases Couch in June.

Overall, I would rather see QB Craig Nall have an opportunity than bringing in either Collins or Couch, while keeping QB Doug Pederson on as the 3rd quarterback and stashing rookie QB Scott McBride on the practice squad.

I'm getting inside the head of the Packers. I write an entry speculating that there is no way Michael Westbrook remains a Packer on the same day he is cut. There are probably a number of teams interested in Westbrook for depth in their secondary.

Jsonline.com reported that Damon Huard visited Green Bay as a possible backup quarterback. Ugh. Huard put up some respectable stats as a starter in 1999 for Miami (4-1 record along with 8 TD, 4 INT, 57.9% completion percentage, and 79.8 passer rating) before showing nothing for Miami in 2000 (60.2 passer rating) and finding himself released after the season. On the other hand, in 2003 he showed that 1 incomplete pass attempt for the season garners a QB the passer rating of 39.6. Huard's stats in 1999 and 2000 are very similar to the 62.9 rating in 1999 with Philadelphia and the 56.6 rating in 2000 with Cleveland that Doug Pederson managed to post on two bad offensive teams. Huard is a few years younger than Pederson, but it is unlikely that Huard is better than Pederson. Even with the talk surrounding Tim Couch and Kerry Collins as possible backups, it could be better to stick with the status quo and have faith in Craig Nall.

Jsonline.com reported that the Packers signed two more rookie free agents, WR Chris Day and LB Jermaine Taylor. Day is short (5'11") and small (178 lbs.) and has to be a real long shot to make the team. On the other hand, he is in good company with fellow short and small wide receivers Carl Ford, Antonio Chatman and Donald Driver. Taylor is short for a linebacker (5'10") and there are probably very few linebackers under 6' playing in the NFL. It doesn't help Taylor that he is trying to make the leap from Division III to the NFL.

Packersnews.com reported that Mike McKenzie's ex-agent Brian Parker was his fourth agent in the last five years? Very weird.

Jsonline.com reported that Bryant Westbrook is recovering from his second achilles tendon tear suffered last August, although he is unlikely to practice with the team until training camp. This was his second achilles tendon tear in three seasons. Westbrook is a lost superstar; in his first 51 NFL starts prior to turning 26 years old, he had 11 interceptions, 3 interception returns for touchdowns, and 66 pass defenses. In 2000, he was on pace for his third season of 20+ pass defenses in his first four seasons (he missed half of the 1999 season with injuries) before his first achilles tendon tear. Only 5 cornerbacks recorded 20+ pass defenses in 2003 in the NFL, only 4 cornerbacks did it in 2002, and none of the players who did it in 2002 repeated the feat in 2003.

Westbrook is not the same player he was before his injuries. His speed must be a shadow of its former self, because the Packers have no intention of keeping him at cornerback and he is only playing safety, according to jsonline.com. He was a great pickup in 2002, when the Packers were suffering from injuries in the secondary, but he will have a hard time keeping his job with the Packers this season. There are four safeties (Darren Sharper, Mark Roman, Marques Anderson, and Curtis Fuller) with swing men Bhawoh Jue and Michael Hawthorne likely to see time at both safety and cornerback. Westbrook probably has a couple of seasons left in him at a safety position, but probably not with the Packers.

Mike McKenzie fired his agent according to jsonline.com. It sounds like McKenzie isn't getting what he wants, a new contract and a trade to a new team. Neither of these things are going to happen for McKenzie, so it looks like the messenger was shot. He probably wasn't too thrilled to read that Brett Favre and Ahman Green were quoted on jsonline.com as saying McKenzie should honor his contract and report for mini camp. I don't know if this is a good sign that McKenzie wants to make some sort of a deal and report to camp quickly, or if he wants a new agent to force the Packers into trading him.

Jsonline.com is usually gushing with praise for the Packers front office and coaches, that is what beat writers are supposed to do, but they had an article that was very critical of drafting P B.J. Sander in the 3rd round, and especially critical of their decision to trade up to draft him. As I've said before, I would never draft a kicker, because punters and place kickers are too inconsistant. Sander can expect a lot of criticism because of his high draft selection. Its unlikely that the Packers 4th and 5th round picks would have made an impact on the team, only 6 players the Packers have drafted in the 4th or 5th round are still with the team, but still the Packers have success historically in these rounds. Excluding previous 4th and 5th round picks that are starting in the NFL, QB Mark Brunell, QB Aaron Brooks, and WR Corey Bradford, the Packers drafted DEs KGB and Aaron Kampman, LB Na'il Diggs, RB Najeh Davenport, QB Craig Nall, and DT James Lee. 6 of the 11 last picks by the Packers in the 4th and 5th rounds are still with the team. If the Packers have a 50% success rate with 4th and 5th round picks, then the Packers essentially traded one of those players for a punter.

Another problem with trading this draft's fourth and fifth round picks for the pick that brought in Sander is that the Packers could have used either of the picks to draft a wide receiver, and this year's draft was deep in wide receivers. The Packers are set at their top 3 receiver spots with WRs Donald Driver, Javon Walker, and Robert Ferguson, but after those three, its a bare cupboard. Only WR Carl Ford has showed any promise, and that was only during last preseason because the Packers hid him on the injured reserve for all of 2003. This explains why rookie free agent wide receivers Sam Breeden and Chris Shreve were brought into minicamp. The Packers have no intention of bringing back WR Antonio Freeman, they gave his number 86 to Ford, but Driver, Walker and Ferguson all missed time with injuries in 2003, so I would expect the Packers will be signing a veteran free agent to back them up at some point this summer.

Mark Hatley signed a contract extension to remain in the Packers' front office, acting as the number 2 personal guru behind Mike Sherman. Hatley did a good job rebuilding Chicago after the Dave Wannstedt era, acquiring all of the important players involved with Chicago's great 13-3 season in 2001. While in Chicago, he drafted such studs as Brian Urlacher, and he also drafted such duds as Cade McNown; such is the mixed resume that makes up every general manager's resume (although Hatley wasn't the "general manager" in title, because the McCaskey family were such control freaks that Chicago didn't have a general manager from 1985-2001). The Packers have become a better team since Hatley's arrival, so its good to see he will remain with the Packers.

One thing that was mentioned on ESPN during the draft was that the CB Ahmad Carroll played man-to-man coverage at Arkansas, and that was needed by all teams in the NFL because the league would be enforcing the rule that defenders can't put their hands on receivers after 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. This was an issue last season, especially since keeping their hands on the receivers during their routes was a main part of the strategy used by Carolina's secondary in the playoffs. As jsonline.com reports, this isn't a new rule, just an actual enforcement of existing rules. Who knows if the NFL will actually improve their enforcement in this area, but it might take away some of the glamour from cover 2 coverage schemes in 2004.

Nate Wayne won his dispute over a roster bonus according to jsonline.com . As usual, the lawyer screwed up. Apparently the NFL told the Packers they had until March 10 to make a roster decision with Wayne, while they actually had to make up their mind on March 9. I always expected the Packers to lose this battle, and it especially hurts because the entire reason why they cut Wayne was to avoid paying this bonus. The only consulation in this whole matter is that Philadelphia wasn't too impressed with Wayne's play last season, so Wayne isn't playing at the level he did a couple of seasons ago.

I forgot to mention one other player as a possible third tight end for next season. Jsonline.com reminded me that converted linebacker TE Tony Donald is playing in NFL Europe, and the Packers are keeping a close eye on him. Donald and rookie free agent TE Keith Willis will have to show something in camp to make an impression and make the roster, because the Packers are keeping the phone number for TE Wesley Walls handy. It didn't hurt the Packers last season, but with Walls and TE David Martin as the Packers options as the second tight end in short yardage situations, the Packers often brought in backup T Kevin Barry as tight end eligible. It limited the plays the Packers could run, and reduced the opportunities for QB Brett Favre to throw to the tight end. Martin and Walls bring the same type of game, weak in blocking but strong pass receiving skills. The fact that Walls isn't in camp makes it appear that the Packers would rather have Donald or Willis make the team, rather than ask Walls to return.

One interesting note is that DE Jamal Reynolds is participating in mini camp, according to jsonline.com. Usually when a player is going to be cut after June 1, like DE Joe Johnson or QB Tim Couch in Cleveland, the team will not invite the player to mini camp and will not let him use their practice facilities. The Packers have not added a defensive end this offseason, although they have drafted and resigned a number of defensive tackles, and if Reynolds is bulking up in order to be effective on running plays, as it was indicated that he was according to jsonline.com, then he might find himself on the 2004 roster. Right now, he is as good a candidate to play on 3rd downs, when the Packers need a pass rushing defensive end opposite KGB, as any defensive lineman or linebacker on the roster. It would be something to find out that he still has a place with the Packers, and it would be remarkable if he actually contributes in 2004.

So far the Packers have signed about a dozen rookie free agents that were not drafted. The Packers are unlikely to sign any rookie free agent that has an impact or even makes the team, but that is how the Packers acquired RB Tony Fisher.

The only rookie free agent signed so far that I have heard of is southpaw QB Scott McBride. McBride is currently the 4th QB on the roster and due to receive a lot of practice and playing time this preseason, because I wouldn't expect Doug Pederson or Brett Favre to practice too much or play in that many preseason games. I would expect Craig Nall to receive the bulk of playing and practice time, with McBride playing and practicing as much as Pederson and Favre.

Many of the other rookie free agents didn't even start at college according to jsonline.com. Two other rookie free agents do merit some attention. LB Maurice Jones was a three-year starter at South Florida according to jsonline.com. The Packers have a number of candidates for backup linebackers, but none of them are locks to make the team. If Jones outperforms everyone short of the starting linebackers and plays well on special teams, he will make the team. The Packers only have two tight ends on the roster, so TE Keith Willis has a great opportunity to make the team. According to thehuddlereport.com, Willis is your typical athlete with all the size and skill (6'5", 260 lbs. 4.76 in the 40 yard dash) to play in the NFL, but he is an underachiever. TE David Martin did not improve last season, so a great preseason by Willis could make him the number two tight end.

The draft for the rest of the NFC North.

Detroit. Detroit's offense and defense needed a lot of help, and the offense got it with two first round draft choices. WR Roy Williams and RB Kevin Jones were arguably the two best players at their positions in the entire draft. Both positions badly needed an upgrade, so this can only help Detroit immediately. Jones was a peculiar pick for Steve Mariucci's offense, because Jones is not regarded as a good receiver, so its unlikely he will remain on the field for all three downs. Detroit's offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL in 2003 and added expensive free agent Damian Woody at guard, so it can only be better. All this is irrelevant on offense if Joey Harrington doesn't improve in 2004, which is not a given. Detroit drafted two linebackers, Teddy Lehman and Alex Lewis, who could help in 2004, but did nothing to improve an aging defensive line who lost starter Luther Elliss.

Chicago. In Lovie Smith's 3 years in St. Louis as defensive coordinator, St. Louis had 5 first round picks, all 5 picks were defensive players, and 3 of them were athletic and fast defensive tackles. So it was no surprise that in his first year in Chicago as head coach, Smith drafted a fast and athletic defensive tackle in Tommie Harris. Then Smith did it again in the 2nd round with Terry "Tank" Johnson. Chicago badly needed some depth at defensive tackle, so overall this is not a surprise. Last season in St. Louis, Smith coordinated one of the best defenses in the NFL with arguably the best defensive line in the NFL. St. Louis shut down Ahman Green in their matchup against him. Maybe in 2005, Chicago is a candidate for the best defense in the NFL.

Minnesota. Kenechi Udeze was expected to be drafted earlier, but injury concerns pushed him down to Minnesota. Udeze has elite pass rushing ability and the size to play every down. Udeze is unlikely to improve on 2003 defensive end Lance Johnstone's 9 sacks, but Minnesota should be better against the run. Linebacker Dontarrious Thomas was drafted in the 2nd round, and packers.com said he was coveted by the Packers because he is fast, and the Packers currently covet fast players. Thomas, along with Chris Claiborne and E.J. Henderson, might make a very good linebacker group starting in 2005.

This Packers draft was one of the most boring draft by any team in the NFL. That doesn't mean it was a bad draft, but the Packers didn't trade up in the first round, didn't give up future picks for picks in this year's draft, and didn't draft any big name college players in the latter rounds. That leads to a bad draft grade by some pundits.

The Packers were unlikely to have a great draft, because they were always drafting at the bottom of the round, and every player they drafted has a substantial negative attached to them. The only two positions where it was essential to add some depth was cornerback and defensive line. I expected them to draft at least one defensive end, instead drafting two defensive tackles that could play defensive end. It looks like they stayed true to their draft rankings, and drafted the best player available at their picks.

The trading was very peculiar. The Packers traded their 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 7th round picks for two extra 3rd round picks, while trading their own 3rd round pick to move up in the 3rd round and there own 6th round pick to move up in the 6th round. Not a bad strategy; trading a 4th and a 5th round pick to move up into the more lucrative 3rd round, while not giving up any future picks. It all depends on the picks you move up to draft.

Ahmad Carroll. He is really fast. Packers.com reported that he has run as fast as 4.26 in the 40 yard dash. Wow. Fast seems to be the current theme for the Packers. This is the second draft in a row where the Packers have looked first at a player's 40 yard time, and then at all other football abilities. Corey Chavous was on ESPN's draft coverage, he said he worked with Carroll this spring, and said Carroll is very talented, a very hard worker, but needs to work on his footwork. Chris Berman (I believe) said Carroll's best game last year in college was against Eli Manning, however, the best college game of Jamal Reynolds's college career came against Michael Vick, and that was no true indication of his NFL ability. The two downgrades on Carroll are that he is not tall and he needs more practice time. Overall, it sounds like Carroll is unlikely to contribute in 2004. Maybe, if he doesn't hold out and he works hard to learn his position this preseason, then he can contribute in multiple cornerback alignments, but only later in the 2004 season. He sounds like a starter in 2005.

Joey Thomas. Another speedster cornerback with a 4.44 time in the 40 yard dash. Thomas is taller (6'0") than Carroll. If Thomas is taller than Carroll and almost as fast as Carroll, then what the heck is he doing in the 3rd round? Thomas played at Division I-AA Montana State which makes it really hard to evaluate him. He will certainly make the team on his speed alone, he is unlikely to contribute in 2004, but he is a possible starter in 2005.

Donnell Washington. He is a big man with the listed weight similar to Grady Jackson, although its unlikely Jackson is his listed weight of 330, and the height of Cletidus Hunt. He is probably expected to backup Jackson next season at nose tackle, a position at which the Packers desperately needed some depth. Packers.com compared him to Packer defensive lineman James Lee, because Washington and Lee are almost exactly the same height and weight, but Washington started 26 games at Clemson, while Lee never was a full time starter at Oregon State. He has the size and physical ability to start at nose tackle in the NFL, so its all up to Washington to perform.

B.J. Sander. Just a wasted pick. I don't like drafting kickers, because they are too inconsistant and are easily cut after one bad season. It sounds like Sander only had one good season in college, last season with Ohio State, and it sounds like it was his only season as the full time punter. Plus, the Packers wasted picks on Josh Bidwell and Brett Conway in recent years, which should have taught them something. The Packers should have tried to bring someone like Sander in as a free agent, instead of using a top 100 pick to draft him.

Corey Williams. With the departures of Gilbert Brown and Rod Walker, and the eventual departures of Jamal Reynolds and Joe Johnson, the Packers need more depth on the defensive line, so Williams has a good chance to make the team. Larry Smith is the most likely player to backup Hunt, so Williams, Aaron Kampman, Chukie Nwokorie, and Kenny Peterson will probably battle it out in the preseason to start at defensive end opposite KGB. It sounds odd to mention a 6th round rookie as a possible defensive line starter, but the position battle at defensive end should be wide open. I read somewhere that the Packers were talking to free agent Tony Brackens at defensive end, but it appears that Brackens wants too much money, and he is too injury prone to deserve big money. Williams would have probably been drafted higher had he come out in his junior year, because he suffered from numerous injuries in his senior season.

Scott Wells. Wells is the only center on the roster besides Mike Flanagan, Rob Davis is a center in name but he is the long snapper only, so Wells has a good opportunity to make the team. If he can play some guard too, he probably is a lock to make the team. The Packers have done well in recent years with offensive lineman from Tennessee (Chad Clifton) and offensive lineman picked in the 7th round (Mark Tauscher).

Overall, the Packers needed to improve their depth in the defensive backfield and line, and they did both with fast players with good size. Not an exciting draft, but looking ahead to the 2005 season, it made the Packers a better team.

The Packers signed free agent cornerback Chris Watson, who missed all of 2003 with an injury, the day after missing out on free agent cornerback Terrence Shaw, who signed with Carolina. Watson provides more depth at cornerback for the Packers, although its unlikely he makes the team if Mike McKenzie works out his differences with the Packers. Still, Watson's signing removes some of the pressure to overreach for a cornerback tomorrow in the draft. Watson is a tremendous value signing if he is healthy. I'm going to compare him to cornerback Jason Webster, who signed a multi-year deal with Atlanta this offseason and was given a $7 million signing bonus.

Both players are 26 years old, and will turn 27 years old by the end of the 2004. Webster missed most of 2003, playing in only 5 games, while Watson missed all of 2003. Both players passed a physical to sign with their respective new teams, so I'm assuming that both players are now healthy. In 2002, Webster started in 16 games, had 85 tackles, 1 interception, and 11 pass defenses for San Francisco, while Watson started in 8 games, had 44 tackles, 1 interception and 7 pass defenses for Buffalo. Essentially both players had identical statistics in their last healthy season, when you consider that Webster had approximately twice as many opportunities as Watson had to make plays. Watson has one clear advantage over Webster, Watson is 6'1" to Webster 5'10", which is an advantage for the Packers because Minnesota (Randy Moss, Marcus Robinson), Chicago (David Terrell, Justin Gage), and Detroit (Charles Rogers, Tai Streets) all have multiple receivers over 6'2" that expect to see a lot of playing time in 2004 against the Packers. Everything else being equal between Watson and Webster, Watson's height advantage may make him the better player for the Packers, while signing him for $7 million less than Webster. Even if statistics just can't show that Webster is the superior player to Watson, then the Packers still have a player who is comparable to Webster for a fraction of the price.

The worst thing the Packers could do right now is overreact and trade Mike McKenzie before the draft. According to jsonline.com, the Packers are not making any attempts to trade him, which is the right thing to do. The Packers should have been looking to draft at least one cornerback anyway, because McKenzie is the only cornerback under contract past this season. Mike Sherman's comments reported by jsonline.com sounded like someone who is preparing to play without McKenzie, but is willing to discuss the problem and not to "keep my head in the sand". The Packers should make contigency plans, maybe signing free agent cornerback Terrance Shaw is an option, as jsonline.com reported that Shaw visited Green Bay last week, or looking at the free agent market after the June 1 cuts. Any free agent cornerback signed now is just providing depth behind the probable top three cornerbacks Al Harris, Michael Hawthorne and Bhawoh Jue. A holdout is historically unlikely, because the last big named player to sit out in the NFL was Sean Gilbert in 1997, and he wasn't under contract. I can't think of the last player, under a multi-year contract, who sat out for an entire season. Eventually, the failure to report fines end up costing the player too much money, and he eventually reports to work. Jsonline.com reported that McKenzie is contemplating retirement instead of playing again for the Packers, but that is easy to say in April and much harder to do in September.

Torrence Marshall, Tony Fisher, and David Martin all signed their one year offers from the Packers. All three players may seen substantial playing time as the top backups at their respective position, or its possible all three players are cut in the preseason. There all on the edge of the roster. All three players need to stay healthy, continue to show improvement, and play well when given the opportunity.

The Packers waived punter Travis Hale, who apparently didn't outperform either prospective punter Travis Dorsch or Nathan Chapman in minicamp this April.

So who are the Packers going to draft, assuming they don't draft a quarterback in the first round? As I said in previous posts, all the Tim Couch talk leads me to believe that the Packers have no intention of drafting a quarterback with the first pick. Unlike last year, when all three linebacker positions were unknown, except that Na'il Diggs would play one of the positions, there is no obvious need position for 2004.

Who might the Packers draft on defense? The defensive end position opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila could be one need position, although Chukie Nwokorie and Aaron Kampman played well and someone like Marcus Wilkins might be used on passing downs, and the defensive ends likely to still be available at this point would be a reach. A defensive tackle is possible, although there are no obvious draft candidates, this draft is not loaded with quality defensive tackles like in 2003, and the starters are set with Grady Jackson and Cletidus Hunt. I can't see the Packers going linebacker for the second year in a row. Safeties are rarely drafted in the first round, and only Sean Taylor, who should be long gone by the Packers pick, has a first round grade. Maybe a cornerback, but that could be any one of a number of players including Dunta Robinson, Chris Gamble, Will Poole, etc. and none of these players are likely to start or even play 3rd cornerback ahead of Mike McKenzie, Al Harris and Michael Hawthorne, assuming that the Packers and McKenzie work out their disagreements.

Who might the Packers draft on offense? There are no obvious needs for 2004, but there might be for 2005. Offensive line is set for 2004, but Marco Rivera is a free agent next offseason. The player that really interests me is offensive guard/tackle Justin Smiley. Smiley is regarded as the second best offensive lineman in the draft, according to Pat Kirwan at nfl.com, but what I really like about him was that he started 36 games at Alabama, and like fellow SEC offensive lineman Chad Clifton, he never allowed a quarterback sack. Never. The only reason Smiley falls down to the Packers pick is that he grades out as a likely guard, and guards aren't usually drafted in the first round (only 2 offensive guards have been drafted in the first round in the last 4 drafts). This is a deep draft for wide receiver, and although no wide receiver drafted by the Packers is likely to beat out Donald Driver, Javon Walker or Robert Ferguson, a very good wide receiver, such as Wisconsin's Lee Evans, might be available. This is not a deep draft for running backs, and the top two backs, Steven Jackson and Kevin Jones, should not be available for when the Packers anyway. The Packers only have two tight ends, Bubba Franks and David Martin, on the roster, and there is a really good tight end, Ben Troupe, who will likely be available. Troupe would be a luxury, but he and Franks could bring back memories of the Mark Chmura/Keith Jackson season of 1996.

Overall, although the defense could use the help, I really like Justin Smiley or my second choice would be Ben Troupe. However, major disclaimer, I was completely surprised by the Nick Barnett selection last season, and Barnett was a steal. Here is to hoping the Packers disagree with me and instead pick another great player.

Tom Silverstein wrote a very good article for the April 16th Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal. http://www.jsonline.com/packer/news/apr04/222815.asp The article said that the Packers look back at player evaluations from previous drafts. Any organization that isn't looking back at past drafts for successful trends, or for flawed reasoning, is not doing their job properly. It is great to read that the Packers are constantly self-evaluating their talent evaluation.

The Tim Couch talks continue to drag out. The fact that the Packers continue to talk with Couch makes me believe that they have no intention of drafting a quarterback in the first round. I think the Packers might draft a quarterback if one that Mike Sherman really likes falls to them at the right time, such as when Craig Nall, who Sherman really liked out of college, was still available in the 5th round. Nall's name was hardly mentioned at all pre-draft that year, so maybe Sherman was wrong about Nall, but Nall hasn't been given an opportunity in the NFL to prove Sherman wrong. As for Couch, he might as well ask for starter's money, but he will eventually sign for backup's money with incentives if he becomes the starter, just as the Packers have offered, whether its the Packers of some other team after he is cut by Cleveland on June 1st. It sounds like Couch has no interest in playing for the Packers, and he is only interested in being well paid for one year as a backup before some other team signs him to start in 2005.

One year later, the Packers get their man and sign free agent linebacker Armegis Spearman. Spearman was expected to fill the either the middle or weakside linebacker position in 2003, however Cincinnati matched the Packers offer to the restricted free agent but then surprisingly cut Spearman during the preseason. Ironically, Spearman's best season was his rookie season 2000 and his stats in 2000 (73 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass defenses) are similar to the 2003 season for Hannibal Navies (86 tackles, 1 sack, 2 pass defenses) who is the free agent linebacker the Packers signed to play the weakside after missing out on Spearman. Both Navies and Spearman have had injury problems in prior seasons, although 2003 was the first season that Navies had stayed injury free. Its unlikely Spearman has a shot to replace Nick Barnett, Na'il Diggs or Navies at starting linebacker, but he appears to have the size and speed to be able to play any linebacker position. He could be the top backup because none of the other backup linebackers (Steve Josue, Paris Lenon, Torrance Marshall, or Marcus Wilkins) are guaranteed a spot on the Packers roster, but if all of them are healthy during the preseason it will be a fierce competition.

The Packers missed out on the opportunity to sign restricted free agent defensive end Bryce Fisher. The opportunity is not a big loss, because the Packers can find a player like Fisher in the middle rounds of the draft, if it is a priority.

The other restricted free agent news is that tight end David Martin, cornerback Bhawoh Jue, and linebacker Marshall all come back for next season. Martin does not seem to be anything more than a third tight end, but it is possible that Marshall gets his act together, avoids banned substances, and becomes a starting linebacker. Jue overcame injuries in 2002 to come back in 2003 and play horrible. He was burned badly on a few plays in 2003 and contributed mightly to the home loss versus Kansas City and the playoff loss to Philadelphia. Once a cornerback loses his confidence, sometimes it never comes back. Jue has the ability to start, so here's to hoping he overcomes his poor 2003 season, regains any confidence he lost in 2003, and gets his career back on track.

Strong safety Donovin Darius is expected to be traded from Jacksonville for a two fourth round picks (one in 2004 and one in 2005) on the second day of the NFL draft according to profootballweekly.com. Darius could step right and be the starting strong safety for the Packers. Darius's play is similar to Marques Anderson (good run support, but questionable pass coverage), however, his play appears to be more consistant, and he appears to have the reputation as a ferocious hitter and a veteran leader, which are the sort of qualities that make some coaches weak in the knees. Apparently Jack Del Rio is not that type of coach. Darius is still playing at a high level and a scout speaking to profootballweekly.com thinks Darius is a steal for 2 fourth round draft choices. Darius is signed for the 2004 season, he signed the one year $4.113 million qualifing offer he received for being given the franchise label by Jacksonville, so Jacksonville isn't trading him because they can't agree to contract terms. Apparently Jacksonville is just trying to save some money and get value for the 28 year old safety before he reaches the wrong side of 30.

Darius is unlikely to be traded to the Packers, because the Packers do not have enough room under the salary cap to afford his $4.113 million 2004 contract and they recently signed Mark Roman and project him as their 2004 strong safety.

The most likely location is Detroit. Detroit cut 2003 starting safety Corey Harris and they are $9.36 million under the cap, plenty of room to trade for Darius and sign their draft choices. Further, profootballweekly.com reported that the trade would happen only if the other unnamed team doesn't acquire a safety in the first two rounds. Detroit has a high draft choice, 6th overall, which would be the spot some mock drafts believe safety Sean Taylor of Miami (FL) will be drafted. If Detroit misses out on Taylor at 6th overall, then Detroit would end up with a great player at that pick anyway, maybe defensive end Kenechi Udeze from USC, and a new pro bowl safety in Darius. With Udeze and Darius, Detroit's defense could be greatly improved in 2004. Detroit would be even better off drafting a defensive tackle after releasing veteran Luther Elliss, but there doesn't appear to be a concensus top 10 defensive tackle in this year's draft. The only other obvious team with salary cap room, a need at strong safety, and a top 10 pick to possibly select Taylor is Houston. Hopefully, Darius remains in the AFC with Houston and doesn't help Detroit's defense take a huge step forward in 2004.

Antuan Edwards accepted an offer for the veterans minimum of $535,000 to play for Miami next season according to jsonline.com and espn.com. Its a bit of a risk for Edwards for two reasons. First, there is no guaranteed money in the Miami deal, although the Packers only guaranteed $100,000, so if Edwards is injured (again) during the preseason, then Miami can easily cut him and not worry about their salary cap. Second, if the competition is tight during the preseason between Edwards and another player, Miami has no established relationship with Edwards while Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has worked with Edwards for the last four seasons. However, Miami has parted ways with two members of their 2003 secondary, Brock Marion (free safety) and Jamal Fletcher (ex-Badger third cornerback), while the Packers brought in Mark Roman to compete for the strong safety position Edwards had last season.

Mike McKenzie is unhappy with the Packers, according to the associated press. This brings the total to two pro bowl cornerbacks (Ty Law and McKenzie) that are upset with their contracts after watching second tier corners like Antoine Winfield receive eight figure signing bonuses this off season.

McKenzie is also upset with the way last season ended in Philadelphia and maybe it isn't such a bright idea to fire the defensive coordinator (Ed Donatell) and replace him with the defensive backs coach (Slowik) when the problem during the playoff game loss was the defensive pass coverage. Jsonline.com reported that McKenzie's loyalty to assistant defensive backs coach Lionel Washington, who was bypassed for promotion to Slowik's old job when the Packers hired Kurt Shottenheimer, is another complaint for McKenzie. I am a fan of the hiring of Shottenheimer, who is very familiar with the NFC North as defensive coordinator with Detroit last season, but I can understand why McKenzie is upset that the Packers seemingly overlooked a qualified in house candidate in Washington.

There also appears to be some mixed signals, McKenzie thinking one thing and Sherman doing something else. Sherman appears to keep all football matters close to the vest and probably is not one of the top players coaches in the NFL. Sherman has seemed to have a way with working these matters out with the players, as he did with Nai'l Diggs during last offseason.

In the end, McKenzie would never had requested a trade if it weren't for the money, no matter what is said to the contrary. When Champ Bailey receives a signing bonus ($18 million) that is worth more than your entire 5 year contract (McKenzie signed for $17 million in 2002), although your 2003 stats outpassed him (McKenzie had 4 INT and 18 Pass Defends to Bailey's 2 INT and 9 PD), then you have a reason to complain. Those stats don't tell the whole story because offenses avoided throwing at Bailey which allowed McKenzie to have many more opportunities, however, the two remain comparable players and McKenzie appears to be a bargain for the next three seasons. I can't think of a single case where the Packers have renegotiated a contract for a player when it was not initiated by the Packers for salary cap relief, so any contract renegotiation for McKenzie seems unlikely.

In the end, this is a potential holdout situation. The Packers cannot replace McKenzie's preformance and contract value at cornerback, and a team thinking Super Bowl cannot trade its number one cornerback. Sherman will probably talk to McKenzie this week and hopefully the Packers can avoid McKenzie's potential holdout.

Antuan Edwards might be back with the Packers next season after all, according to jsonline.com. Apparently teams are interested in Edwards, but only at the veteran's minimum, which isn't too surprising because the draft is approaching and Edwards has a history of injuries. Back in March, it seemed like Edwards would land with another team interested in his ability to play safety or cornerback because the Packers were tired of all his injuries. Edwards is solid in pass defense and is probably as physically talented as anyone in the Packers secondary, except for Darren Sharper. Edwards's return would only help the Packers secondary, and Edwards could end up winning the strong safety position for the third straight year out of camp or winning the third cornerback position.

Signing free agent Bryce Fisher looks more likely this week. St. Louis is tight against the salary cap, only $700,000 below, and might not be willing to match the Packers offer to Fisher. Fisher appears suitable to play the elephant position on the defensive line, taking the place of likely June 1 releasee Joe Johnson. St. Louis might be willing to let Fisher walk, Fisher is the type of player that can be replaced in the draft or by players cut after June 1. Ironically, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Packers sign Fisher now and St. Louis to sign St. Louis native Johnson to take his place in St. Louis after June 1.

At this point, Tim Couch might want to take whatever the Packers offer or face the prospect of not signing until week 1 of the 2004 season with a team whose quarterback is injured or had a horrific preseason.

Defensive end Bryce Fisher visited with the Packers last week according to packersnews.com. The compensation to sign him is low, his signing would cost the Packers a 7th round draft choice, and he probably would be guaranteed no more than $500,000. Profootballweekly.com thinks St. Louis wants to keep him as their defensive end on first downs opposite pass rusher Leonard Little, so presumably Fisher is good at stopping the run and his size (6'3", 272 lbs.) makes him appropriate for the run stopping end, or "elephant", on the Packers starting defensive line opposite KGB. He would take over for Joe Johnson, assuming Johnson is released after June 1.

Fisher has complied an interesting resume in his three years in the NFL, with 60 tackles and 5 sacks, in 33 games and only 3 starts. He was drafted in the 7th round by Buffalo in 1999, completed his 2 year obligation to the Air Force, and recorded 3 sacks in his rookie season of 2001. I would expect any team would be happy to get 3 sacks out of a backup defensive end, especially an end who is only a rookie, but Buffalo cut him after one year in order to sign veterans Chidi Ahanotu and Shawn Price, both of whom are no longer with Buffalo. St. Louis picked Fisher off waivers in 2002, and they have liked what they have seen so far to consider him their replacement for Grant Wistrom.

Fisher sounds like a player who would help the Packers in 2004, but profootballweekly.com reported that Fisher's agent told them that Fisher is loyal to St. Louis GM Charley Armey and he is unlikely to sign with anyone other than St. Louis. Additionally, St. Louis has already lost defensive linemen Wistrom and Brian Young, and probably would match any modest offer sheet Fisher would sign with the Packers in order to maintain their depth on the defensive line. Fisher's visit sounds like a typical agent prepared visit to boost the offer from his client's current team, ala Mike Logan who used the Packers interest in him at strong safety to resign with Pittsburgh last month.

Another Tim Couch story, as the Packers continue to wine and dine Cleveland's ex-quarterback. Why are the Packers wining and dining Couch without having any substantive talks about compensation with Cleveland and contract with Couch? Either Mike Sherman likes Couch more than any quarterback available in the draft or Sherman is just keeping his options open and his true intentions vague. If Couch is signed before the draft, then Sherman probably likes Couch better than Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Philip Rivers, however, maybe the Packers couldn't fit a 1st round quarterback under their salary cap but they can fit Couch. All in all, its just part of the time honored tradition by NFL head coaches; do not reveal your intended 1st round draft choice until you actually draft him. It wouldn't be surprising to hear that the Packers traded for Couch during the draft, but after the 1st round had been chosen, in order for Cleveland to get a pick in this year's draft while the Packers are able to hide their intentions as to their 1st round draft choice.

"[Ben Roethlisberger]'s probably going to be gone before we pick, but I always want to cover our bases in case something happens -- he falls or we move up," Sherman said. "I thought he had an excellent workout." That is what the Associated Press reported on March 26th. Then on March 30th, Tom Silverstein of jsonline.com reported that Sherman has attended "the personal workouts of at least seven of the quarterbacks expected to be taken in the college draft April 24 and 25."

Its a good sign that Sherman is looking at quarterbacks, because no NFL team can afford a stopgap (although exceptions can be pointed to such as Trent Dilfer and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens) at quarterback. A quarterback needs at least one or two seasons in the NFL on the sidelines and in practice before he can be expected to be an effective starter. If Brett Favre expects that 2004 or 2005 might be his last year, then the Packers need to draft/acquire his successor now, although Tom Rossely, offensive coordinator, has been quoted as hoping Favre plays a few more years (I second that motion), which is possible based on Favre's age. Although Favre hasn't missed any games in his career due to injury, he has come close in at least every season starting with 1999, and these injuries must be taking their toll on Favre. The timing in acquring Favre's replacement is difficult; he must be drafted/acquired a year or two in advance of Favre's retirement, but the Packers can't store him on the sidelines for years (ala Steve Young in San Francisco) because of the salary cap.

Silverstein's comment reminded me of Sherman's early statement, that maybe a quarterback falls or the Packers move up. Maybe a combination of both. Teams in the top 10 are nervous drafting and paying a large signing bonus for a quarterback after such famous flops of the past few years (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Cade McKnown, and to a lesser extent Tim Couch). Almost every draft has a 1st round quarterback who flopped. Although San Diego and Arizona have shown no indication of drafting a quarterback in the top 10, no other team seems likely (Oakland, NY Giants, Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Houston) to draft one that high. Its unlikely that any of these teams will want to move down to the Packers 25th spot, but if one of these teams don't believe that there is a top 10 talent available for them at their pick and Eil Manning, Roethlisberger, or Philip Rivers are available at picks 8 through 10, maybe Atlanta, Jacksonville, or Houston might find that their best offer has come from the Packers.

If a quarterback is so good that Sherman wants to draft him with the Packers first round pick, that quarterback should be long gone by the Packers pick at 25st overall. It would be surprising if Sherman drafts a quarterback just to draft a quarterback at 25th overall, but depending on how the 1st round of the draft unfolds, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the Packers move up.