The worst thing the Packers could do right now is overreact and trade Mike McKenzie before the draft. According to jsonline.com, the Packers are not making any attempts to trade him, which is the right thing to do. The Packers should have been looking to draft at least one cornerback anyway, because McKenzie is the only cornerback under contract past this season. Mike Sherman's comments reported by jsonline.com sounded like someone who is preparing to play without McKenzie, but is willing to discuss the problem and not to "keep my head in the sand". The Packers should make contigency plans, maybe signing free agent cornerback Terrance Shaw is an option, as jsonline.com reported that Shaw visited Green Bay last week, or looking at the free agent market after the June 1 cuts. Any free agent cornerback signed now is just providing depth behind the probable top three cornerbacks Al Harris, Michael Hawthorne and Bhawoh Jue. A holdout is historically unlikely, because the last big named player to sit out in the NFL was Sean Gilbert in 1997, and he wasn't under contract. I can't think of the last player, under a multi-year contract, who sat out for an entire season. Eventually, the failure to report fines end up costing the player too much money, and he eventually reports to work. Jsonline.com reported that McKenzie is contemplating retirement instead of playing again for the Packers, but that is easy to say in April and much harder to do in September.

Torrence Marshall, Tony Fisher, and David Martin all signed their one year offers from the Packers. All three players may seen substantial playing time as the top backups at their respective position, or its possible all three players are cut in the preseason. There all on the edge of the roster. All three players need to stay healthy, continue to show improvement, and play well when given the opportunity.

The Packers waived punter Travis Hale, who apparently didn't outperform either prospective punter Travis Dorsch or Nathan Chapman in minicamp this April.

So who are the Packers going to draft, assuming they don't draft a quarterback in the first round? As I said in previous posts, all the Tim Couch talk leads me to believe that the Packers have no intention of drafting a quarterback with the first pick. Unlike last year, when all three linebacker positions were unknown, except that Na'il Diggs would play one of the positions, there is no obvious need position for 2004.

Who might the Packers draft on defense? The defensive end position opposite Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila could be one need position, although Chukie Nwokorie and Aaron Kampman played well and someone like Marcus Wilkins might be used on passing downs, and the defensive ends likely to still be available at this point would be a reach. A defensive tackle is possible, although there are no obvious draft candidates, this draft is not loaded with quality defensive tackles like in 2003, and the starters are set with Grady Jackson and Cletidus Hunt. I can't see the Packers going linebacker for the second year in a row. Safeties are rarely drafted in the first round, and only Sean Taylor, who should be long gone by the Packers pick, has a first round grade. Maybe a cornerback, but that could be any one of a number of players including Dunta Robinson, Chris Gamble, Will Poole, etc. and none of these players are likely to start or even play 3rd cornerback ahead of Mike McKenzie, Al Harris and Michael Hawthorne, assuming that the Packers and McKenzie work out their disagreements.

Who might the Packers draft on offense? There are no obvious needs for 2004, but there might be for 2005. Offensive line is set for 2004, but Marco Rivera is a free agent next offseason. The player that really interests me is offensive guard/tackle Justin Smiley. Smiley is regarded as the second best offensive lineman in the draft, according to Pat Kirwan at nfl.com, but what I really like about him was that he started 36 games at Alabama, and like fellow SEC offensive lineman Chad Clifton, he never allowed a quarterback sack. Never. The only reason Smiley falls down to the Packers pick is that he grades out as a likely guard, and guards aren't usually drafted in the first round (only 2 offensive guards have been drafted in the first round in the last 4 drafts). This is a deep draft for wide receiver, and although no wide receiver drafted by the Packers is likely to beat out Donald Driver, Javon Walker or Robert Ferguson, a very good wide receiver, such as Wisconsin's Lee Evans, might be available. This is not a deep draft for running backs, and the top two backs, Steven Jackson and Kevin Jones, should not be available for when the Packers anyway. The Packers only have two tight ends, Bubba Franks and David Martin, on the roster, and there is a really good tight end, Ben Troupe, who will likely be available. Troupe would be a luxury, but he and Franks could bring back memories of the Mark Chmura/Keith Jackson season of 1996.

Overall, although the defense could use the help, I really like Justin Smiley or my second choice would be Ben Troupe. However, major disclaimer, I was completely surprised by the Nick Barnett selection last season, and Barnett was a steal. Here is to hoping the Packers disagree with me and instead pick another great player.

Tom Silverstein wrote a very good article for the April 16th Milwaukee Journal-Sentinal. http://www.jsonline.com/packer/news/apr04/222815.asp The article said that the Packers look back at player evaluations from previous drafts. Any organization that isn't looking back at past drafts for successful trends, or for flawed reasoning, is not doing their job properly. It is great to read that the Packers are constantly self-evaluating their talent evaluation.

The Tim Couch talks continue to drag out. The fact that the Packers continue to talk with Couch makes me believe that they have no intention of drafting a quarterback in the first round. I think the Packers might draft a quarterback if one that Mike Sherman really likes falls to them at the right time, such as when Craig Nall, who Sherman really liked out of college, was still available in the 5th round. Nall's name was hardly mentioned at all pre-draft that year, so maybe Sherman was wrong about Nall, but Nall hasn't been given an opportunity in the NFL to prove Sherman wrong. As for Couch, he might as well ask for starter's money, but he will eventually sign for backup's money with incentives if he becomes the starter, just as the Packers have offered, whether its the Packers of some other team after he is cut by Cleveland on June 1st. It sounds like Couch has no interest in playing for the Packers, and he is only interested in being well paid for one year as a backup before some other team signs him to start in 2005.

One year later, the Packers get their man and sign free agent linebacker Armegis Spearman. Spearman was expected to fill the either the middle or weakside linebacker position in 2003, however Cincinnati matched the Packers offer to the restricted free agent but then surprisingly cut Spearman during the preseason. Ironically, Spearman's best season was his rookie season 2000 and his stats in 2000 (73 tackles, 1 sack, 3 pass defenses) are similar to the 2003 season for Hannibal Navies (86 tackles, 1 sack, 2 pass defenses) who is the free agent linebacker the Packers signed to play the weakside after missing out on Spearman. Both Navies and Spearman have had injury problems in prior seasons, although 2003 was the first season that Navies had stayed injury free. Its unlikely Spearman has a shot to replace Nick Barnett, Na'il Diggs or Navies at starting linebacker, but he appears to have the size and speed to be able to play any linebacker position. He could be the top backup because none of the other backup linebackers (Steve Josue, Paris Lenon, Torrance Marshall, or Marcus Wilkins) are guaranteed a spot on the Packers roster, but if all of them are healthy during the preseason it will be a fierce competition.

The Packers missed out on the opportunity to sign restricted free agent defensive end Bryce Fisher. The opportunity is not a big loss, because the Packers can find a player like Fisher in the middle rounds of the draft, if it is a priority.

The other restricted free agent news is that tight end David Martin, cornerback Bhawoh Jue, and linebacker Marshall all come back for next season. Martin does not seem to be anything more than a third tight end, but it is possible that Marshall gets his act together, avoids banned substances, and becomes a starting linebacker. Jue overcame injuries in 2002 to come back in 2003 and play horrible. He was burned badly on a few plays in 2003 and contributed mightly to the home loss versus Kansas City and the playoff loss to Philadelphia. Once a cornerback loses his confidence, sometimes it never comes back. Jue has the ability to start, so here's to hoping he overcomes his poor 2003 season, regains any confidence he lost in 2003, and gets his career back on track.

Strong safety Donovin Darius is expected to be traded from Jacksonville for a two fourth round picks (one in 2004 and one in 2005) on the second day of the NFL draft according to profootballweekly.com. Darius could step right and be the starting strong safety for the Packers. Darius's play is similar to Marques Anderson (good run support, but questionable pass coverage), however, his play appears to be more consistant, and he appears to have the reputation as a ferocious hitter and a veteran leader, which are the sort of qualities that make some coaches weak in the knees. Apparently Jack Del Rio is not that type of coach. Darius is still playing at a high level and a scout speaking to profootballweekly.com thinks Darius is a steal for 2 fourth round draft choices. Darius is signed for the 2004 season, he signed the one year $4.113 million qualifing offer he received for being given the franchise label by Jacksonville, so Jacksonville isn't trading him because they can't agree to contract terms. Apparently Jacksonville is just trying to save some money and get value for the 28 year old safety before he reaches the wrong side of 30.

Darius is unlikely to be traded to the Packers, because the Packers do not have enough room under the salary cap to afford his $4.113 million 2004 contract and they recently signed Mark Roman and project him as their 2004 strong safety.

The most likely location is Detroit. Detroit cut 2003 starting safety Corey Harris and they are $9.36 million under the cap, plenty of room to trade for Darius and sign their draft choices. Further, profootballweekly.com reported that the trade would happen only if the other unnamed team doesn't acquire a safety in the first two rounds. Detroit has a high draft choice, 6th overall, which would be the spot some mock drafts believe safety Sean Taylor of Miami (FL) will be drafted. If Detroit misses out on Taylor at 6th overall, then Detroit would end up with a great player at that pick anyway, maybe defensive end Kenechi Udeze from USC, and a new pro bowl safety in Darius. With Udeze and Darius, Detroit's defense could be greatly improved in 2004. Detroit would be even better off drafting a defensive tackle after releasing veteran Luther Elliss, but there doesn't appear to be a concensus top 10 defensive tackle in this year's draft. The only other obvious team with salary cap room, a need at strong safety, and a top 10 pick to possibly select Taylor is Houston. Hopefully, Darius remains in the AFC with Houston and doesn't help Detroit's defense take a huge step forward in 2004.

Antuan Edwards accepted an offer for the veterans minimum of $535,000 to play for Miami next season according to jsonline.com and espn.com. Its a bit of a risk for Edwards for two reasons. First, there is no guaranteed money in the Miami deal, although the Packers only guaranteed $100,000, so if Edwards is injured (again) during the preseason, then Miami can easily cut him and not worry about their salary cap. Second, if the competition is tight during the preseason between Edwards and another player, Miami has no established relationship with Edwards while Packers defensive coordinator Bob Slowik has worked with Edwards for the last four seasons. However, Miami has parted ways with two members of their 2003 secondary, Brock Marion (free safety) and Jamal Fletcher (ex-Badger third cornerback), while the Packers brought in Mark Roman to compete for the strong safety position Edwards had last season.

Mike McKenzie is unhappy with the Packers, according to the associated press. This brings the total to two pro bowl cornerbacks (Ty Law and McKenzie) that are upset with their contracts after watching second tier corners like Antoine Winfield receive eight figure signing bonuses this off season.

McKenzie is also upset with the way last season ended in Philadelphia and maybe it isn't such a bright idea to fire the defensive coordinator (Ed Donatell) and replace him with the defensive backs coach (Slowik) when the problem during the playoff game loss was the defensive pass coverage. Jsonline.com reported that McKenzie's loyalty to assistant defensive backs coach Lionel Washington, who was bypassed for promotion to Slowik's old job when the Packers hired Kurt Shottenheimer, is another complaint for McKenzie. I am a fan of the hiring of Shottenheimer, who is very familiar with the NFC North as defensive coordinator with Detroit last season, but I can understand why McKenzie is upset that the Packers seemingly overlooked a qualified in house candidate in Washington.

There also appears to be some mixed signals, McKenzie thinking one thing and Sherman doing something else. Sherman appears to keep all football matters close to the vest and probably is not one of the top players coaches in the NFL. Sherman has seemed to have a way with working these matters out with the players, as he did with Nai'l Diggs during last offseason.

In the end, McKenzie would never had requested a trade if it weren't for the money, no matter what is said to the contrary. When Champ Bailey receives a signing bonus ($18 million) that is worth more than your entire 5 year contract (McKenzie signed for $17 million in 2002), although your 2003 stats outpassed him (McKenzie had 4 INT and 18 Pass Defends to Bailey's 2 INT and 9 PD), then you have a reason to complain. Those stats don't tell the whole story because offenses avoided throwing at Bailey which allowed McKenzie to have many more opportunities, however, the two remain comparable players and McKenzie appears to be a bargain for the next three seasons. I can't think of a single case where the Packers have renegotiated a contract for a player when it was not initiated by the Packers for salary cap relief, so any contract renegotiation for McKenzie seems unlikely.

In the end, this is a potential holdout situation. The Packers cannot replace McKenzie's preformance and contract value at cornerback, and a team thinking Super Bowl cannot trade its number one cornerback. Sherman will probably talk to McKenzie this week and hopefully the Packers can avoid McKenzie's potential holdout.

Antuan Edwards might be back with the Packers next season after all, according to jsonline.com. Apparently teams are interested in Edwards, but only at the veteran's minimum, which isn't too surprising because the draft is approaching and Edwards has a history of injuries. Back in March, it seemed like Edwards would land with another team interested in his ability to play safety or cornerback because the Packers were tired of all his injuries. Edwards is solid in pass defense and is probably as physically talented as anyone in the Packers secondary, except for Darren Sharper. Edwards's return would only help the Packers secondary, and Edwards could end up winning the strong safety position for the third straight year out of camp or winning the third cornerback position.

Signing free agent Bryce Fisher looks more likely this week. St. Louis is tight against the salary cap, only $700,000 below, and might not be willing to match the Packers offer to Fisher. Fisher appears suitable to play the elephant position on the defensive line, taking the place of likely June 1 releasee Joe Johnson. St. Louis might be willing to let Fisher walk, Fisher is the type of player that can be replaced in the draft or by players cut after June 1. Ironically, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Packers sign Fisher now and St. Louis to sign St. Louis native Johnson to take his place in St. Louis after June 1.

At this point, Tim Couch might want to take whatever the Packers offer or face the prospect of not signing until week 1 of the 2004 season with a team whose quarterback is injured or had a horrific preseason.

Defensive end Bryce Fisher visited with the Packers last week according to packersnews.com. The compensation to sign him is low, his signing would cost the Packers a 7th round draft choice, and he probably would be guaranteed no more than $500,000. Profootballweekly.com thinks St. Louis wants to keep him as their defensive end on first downs opposite pass rusher Leonard Little, so presumably Fisher is good at stopping the run and his size (6'3", 272 lbs.) makes him appropriate for the run stopping end, or "elephant", on the Packers starting defensive line opposite KGB. He would take over for Joe Johnson, assuming Johnson is released after June 1.

Fisher has complied an interesting resume in his three years in the NFL, with 60 tackles and 5 sacks, in 33 games and only 3 starts. He was drafted in the 7th round by Buffalo in 1999, completed his 2 year obligation to the Air Force, and recorded 3 sacks in his rookie season of 2001. I would expect any team would be happy to get 3 sacks out of a backup defensive end, especially an end who is only a rookie, but Buffalo cut him after one year in order to sign veterans Chidi Ahanotu and Shawn Price, both of whom are no longer with Buffalo. St. Louis picked Fisher off waivers in 2002, and they have liked what they have seen so far to consider him their replacement for Grant Wistrom.

Fisher sounds like a player who would help the Packers in 2004, but profootballweekly.com reported that Fisher's agent told them that Fisher is loyal to St. Louis GM Charley Armey and he is unlikely to sign with anyone other than St. Louis. Additionally, St. Louis has already lost defensive linemen Wistrom and Brian Young, and probably would match any modest offer sheet Fisher would sign with the Packers in order to maintain their depth on the defensive line. Fisher's visit sounds like a typical agent prepared visit to boost the offer from his client's current team, ala Mike Logan who used the Packers interest in him at strong safety to resign with Pittsburgh last month.

Another Tim Couch story, as the Packers continue to wine and dine Cleveland's ex-quarterback. Why are the Packers wining and dining Couch without having any substantive talks about compensation with Cleveland and contract with Couch? Either Mike Sherman likes Couch more than any quarterback available in the draft or Sherman is just keeping his options open and his true intentions vague. If Couch is signed before the draft, then Sherman probably likes Couch better than Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, or Philip Rivers, however, maybe the Packers couldn't fit a 1st round quarterback under their salary cap but they can fit Couch. All in all, its just part of the time honored tradition by NFL head coaches; do not reveal your intended 1st round draft choice until you actually draft him. It wouldn't be surprising to hear that the Packers traded for Couch during the draft, but after the 1st round had been chosen, in order for Cleveland to get a pick in this year's draft while the Packers are able to hide their intentions as to their 1st round draft choice.

"[Ben Roethlisberger]'s probably going to be gone before we pick, but I always want to cover our bases in case something happens -- he falls or we move up," Sherman said. "I thought he had an excellent workout." That is what the Associated Press reported on March 26th. Then on March 30th, Tom Silverstein of jsonline.com reported that Sherman has attended "the personal workouts of at least seven of the quarterbacks expected to be taken in the college draft April 24 and 25."

Its a good sign that Sherman is looking at quarterbacks, because no NFL team can afford a stopgap (although exceptions can be pointed to such as Trent Dilfer and the 2000 Baltimore Ravens) at quarterback. A quarterback needs at least one or two seasons in the NFL on the sidelines and in practice before he can be expected to be an effective starter. If Brett Favre expects that 2004 or 2005 might be his last year, then the Packers need to draft/acquire his successor now, although Tom Rossely, offensive coordinator, has been quoted as hoping Favre plays a few more years (I second that motion), which is possible based on Favre's age. Although Favre hasn't missed any games in his career due to injury, he has come close in at least every season starting with 1999, and these injuries must be taking their toll on Favre. The timing in acquring Favre's replacement is difficult; he must be drafted/acquired a year or two in advance of Favre's retirement, but the Packers can't store him on the sidelines for years (ala Steve Young in San Francisco) because of the salary cap.

Silverstein's comment reminded me of Sherman's early statement, that maybe a quarterback falls or the Packers move up. Maybe a combination of both. Teams in the top 10 are nervous drafting and paying a large signing bonus for a quarterback after such famous flops of the past few years (Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Cade McKnown, and to a lesser extent Tim Couch). Almost every draft has a 1st round quarterback who flopped. Although San Diego and Arizona have shown no indication of drafting a quarterback in the top 10, no other team seems likely (Oakland, NY Giants, Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Houston) to draft one that high. Its unlikely that any of these teams will want to move down to the Packers 25th spot, but if one of these teams don't believe that there is a top 10 talent available for them at their pick and Eil Manning, Roethlisberger, or Philip Rivers are available at picks 8 through 10, maybe Atlanta, Jacksonville, or Houston might find that their best offer has come from the Packers.

If a quarterback is so good that Sherman wants to draft him with the Packers first round pick, that quarterback should be long gone by the Packers pick at 25st overall. It would be surprising if Sherman drafts a quarterback just to draft a quarterback at 25th overall, but depending on how the 1st round of the draft unfolds, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the Packers move up.

Michael Hawthorne received a $175,000 signing bonus and $1.425 million for the 2004 season, jsonline.com reported, which is probably far less than William Bartee, who the Packers were considering as their third cornerback, received from Kansas City when they gave Bartee a 4 year contract last week. It was probably a rude awakening for Hawthorne, because he was quoted while speaking about himself in the 3rd person on jsonline.com back on January 28th saying "Michael Hawthorne has to look out for Michael Hawthorne." Hawthorne reportedly was looking for a starting job at a starting salary in an active market for cornerbacks, and he missed badly. He should have a lot to prove in 2004.

Larry Smith was resigned at the league minimum, jsonline.com reported. Smith was picked up from Jacksonville last preseason but missed the opening game roster in favor of Curtis Fuller. He was resigned after Joe Johnson got hurt (again) and Smith was able to create some pass rush from the tackle position on 3rd downs. He was a reason why Cleditus Hunt (5 games pre Smith-0 sacks, 11 games with Smith-4 sacks) and Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (5 games pre Smith-2 sacks, 11 games with Smith-8 sacks) both improved their sack totals. His return is welcomed.

And to make sure no stone was unturned, the Packers signed an Australian Rules Football player named Nathan Chapman to try out at punter, jsonline.com reported. Well it worked out for San Diego with Darren Bennett.

Mark Hatley is probably disappointed after being awarded only one seventh round pick as compensation for free agents lost last offseason. Jsonline.com reported that Hatley was expecting multiple picks, based on a formula that considers free agents signed and lost and how the free agents performed. The Packers' primary losses were Tyrone Williams and Tod McBride, who both played lousy for Atlanta, and Vonnie Holliday, who started strong and finished weak in Kansas City. The Packers' primary gains were starting linebacker Hannibal Navies, along with useful part time performers Nick Luchey and Chukie Nwokorie. Cincinnati received a 3rd round pick for the pro bowl linebacker Takeo Spikes, and Philadelphia received two 4th round picks for starting linebacker Shawn Barber and former pro bowl defensive lineman Hugh Douglass. Only Holliday approaches the level of those three players, although Douglass had multiple teams after him last offseason while Holliday was lucky to find a multiyear deal, and he is defintely a step below those three players. Maybe an additional 5th round selection would have been appropriate for Holliday, instead of the 7th round selection.

Michael Hawthorne was resigned for a two year deal as the 3rd cornerback after the Packers lost out on William Bartee. Bartee has not done much in his NFL career (zero interceptions in 57 career games) so the Packers were probably interested in his potential. Hawthorne outplayed Bartee in 2003 with 2 interceptions and 5 pass defenses compared to Bartee's 0 interceptions and 1 pass defense. I'm suspicious of players who have all the ability in the world, but can't perform on the field, so its probably for the best that Bartee stayed in Kansas City.

Hawthorne has great size (6'3"), but he is a little slow, which is probably why jsonline.com reported the Packers think Hawthorne could play at safety too. Jsonline.com added a little dig on Hawthorne that he had some responsiblity in the botched 4th and forever in the playoff game against Philadelphia. If Hawthorne was responsible for the underneath coverage on the slot receiver, he really blew it because there was no defensive back playing underneath on that play. Terms were not released, but I would expect Hawthorne signed for about the same amount of signing bonus as Mark Roman ($700,000) signed for last week. If Hawthorne does have some coverage responsiblity miscues and because of his fallout with his coaches in New Orleans last season, its probably for the best if Hawthorne doesn't receive too much guaranteed money.

Its possible that Antuan Edwards will be resigned, although I am not expecting him back, but if Edwards did return the Packers would have an interesting mix of veteran defensive backs (Roman, Hawthorne, Edwards, Jue, maybe Bryant Westbrook, if healthy) who all could play corner or safety. If all these players are truly capable of playing either position, then its possible to enter camp with no one in a competition for just one position, although it appears Corey Fuller and Marques Anderson are safeties only, and the Packers are able to play the two players who have the best preseason no matter their expected position. It gives the Packers a lot of flexibility in deciding who plays alongside Mike McKenzie, Al Harris and Darren Sharper next season.

The first games of the 2004 NFL season were announced, and the Packers drew the short straw of having to play at Carolina on Monday Night Football in week 1. There should be a lot of energy in the stadium that night, and the Packers had a lot of preseason rust, Brett Favre in particular, in the opening game vs. Minnesota last season. Other useless stats: the road team hasn't won in the opening MNF game of the season since Miami in 1999, Carolina whipped the Packers 31 to 14 in Carolina on MNF in 2000, however, the Packers were 2-1 last season on MNF including the first win in the new Solider Field. It would be a very good win to start the season off 1-0, but it won't be easy.

Tim Couch...I rarely catch Cleveland's games and I can't recall if I have seen a full game Couch has played in, however, he has some promising stats. For his career, Couch has completed 59.8% of his passes, and in his last two full seasons has the starter (2001 and 2002), he completed 60.7% of his passes. He is better than Donovan McNabb's 57.0% career completion percentage, and McNabb has never completed more than 58.4% of his passes in a single season.

Now that the good part is out of the way, Cleveland is unloading Couch and Butch Davis has given up on him because he is poor at making decisions and he throws too many interceptions. Brett Favre throws a lot of interceptions, but his career TD to INT ratio is 1.7 to 1, while Couch is an awful 0.95 to 1. Couch's replacement in Cleveland, Jeff Garcia, has an outstanding career 2 to 1 ratio while McNabb is Favre-like at 1.8 to 1. Couch has an unimpressive 6.49 yards per attempt for his career, far below Favre (7.06) and Garcia (6.95), but actually better than McNabb (6.16). There is enough past performance and future potential in Couch to bring him in as backup for the right price.

The Packers brought in Akili Smith in 2003, so Couch would continue the Packers' annual attempt to rehab a quarterback bust from the 1999 draft (apparently Cade McNown's turn is in 2005). Couch's agent is probably wary that the Packers gave up on Smith last preseason, but Couch has shown much more potential than Smith ever showed. Couch would probably like a starting job, or the opportunity to compete for a starting job, but there doesn't appear to be any opportunities in the NFL. Maybe after minicamp, Arizona, Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, NY Giants, Oakland (if Rich Gannon isn't healthy), Pittsburgh, or San Diego may decide they need some competition at quarterback, but after Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger are drafted, its likely three of those teams won't consider Couch. If the Packers are the best Couch can do in 2004 and the Packers are interested, then Couch might be well off to come to Green Bay and see if he can get some of the QB pixie dust off of Favre that gave life to the careers of Mark Brunell and Aaron Brooks.

So Eric Crouch is back in camp, and there was much rejoicing. At 6'1" 200 lbs., Crouch is taller than Bhawoh Jue but lighter than Antuan Edwards. Edwards is unlikely to resign with the Packers, so Crouch would find himself fighting for the 4th safety spot with Corey Fuller. Since Crouch has no experience with playing either safety position, it seems likely the best Crouch could expect this season is a roster spot as the 5th safety only if he is a demon on special teams. If Crouch is average or worse on special teams, then the best he could expect is the practice squad. I can't think of one successful offense to defense conversion in the NFL in the last 25 years, so this signing has to be viewed as a long shot.

Travis news alert: the Packers signed punter Travis Hale to compete with Travis Dorsch, and released wide receiver Travis Williams. Hale averaged an unremarkable 40.6 yards per punt in college and had surgery on his right knee in late 2002. Hale must have cost nothing, so it is no risk situation. Williams was hanging on in the NFL by the skin of his teeth before he was cut, because the Packers had him on their "reserve-non-football injury NFL Europe list." I had no idea such a list even existed.

Cruising the sale rack, the Packers signed safety Mark Roman to compete with Marques Anderson for the starting strong safety position. Roman played free safety last season in Cincinnati, and he is about the same size as Bhawoh Jue, so he will be one of the smaller strong safeties in the league. Roman came cheap, his signing bonus was less than $1 million compared to the $2.5 million John Lynch got on the same day from Denver. Jsonline.com reported that the Packers preferred Roman over Lynch because he can "play man-to-man coverage", while Lynch supposedly cannot, but the key is that the Packers "anticipate [Roman] providing superior tackling than either Antuan Edwards or Marques Anderson." Packers linebacker's coach Mark Duffner apparently liked Roman when the two were in Cincinnati and Duffner thinks Roman is a superior tackler. If Roman is a better tackler than Edwards and Anderson, and Roman can avoid being steamrolled by running backs in the open field, then this is a great value signing.

Rod Walker left the Packers to sign with the NFC champs in Carolina. With Walker and Gilbert Brown's departures this offseason, both of the nose tackles that started the 2003 season are now gone. Grady Jackson remains in their places, and he had a solid 2003 season with the Packers, but Walker was effective and valuable when healthy. Unfortunately Walker was rarely healthy. Either James Lee, last year's 5th round pick out of Oregon State, is ready to contribute as Jackson's backup next season, or this is an area the Packers will probably address early in the draft. Larry Smith and Kenny Peterson lined up last season at nose tackle on passing downs, but the Packers need a big body to play the spot on rushing downs if Jackson is injured.

It sounds like these last two years have not been the greatest times in the life of Joe Johnson. Season ending injuries in two consecutive years, charges of marijuana possession, and now his father has passed away. I don't know if the Packers still consider him an important part of the 2004 team, but hopefully this is his low point and everything goes better for him from here on out.

What about the Packers signing ex-Tampa Bay strong safety John Lynch? He would be a very interesting signing, but he would be very expensive and would strain the salary cap. I have not read anywhere that the Packers are interested in him, but he has the skill set as a strong safety that would help the Packers. At this stage in Lynch's career, there are probably a number of veteran secondary players who could play at the same level as Lynch if given an opportunity, but the advantage with Lynch is that you know what to expect. Hopefully Lynch is a possible addition that the Packers will consider.

It was quite surprising to find two teams, the Packers and Tampa Bay, bidding on Josh Bidwell. The signing bonus of $150,000 offered by both teams was microscopic in today's NFL free agency, but it was still interesting. I expected Bidwell to either be offered a 1 year deal by the Packers or end up in another team's camp for some competition to an incumbant punter. Bidwell wasn't a big success for the Packers considering that they actually spent a draft choice to acquire him, and he missed a season during his battle with cancer. Between the illness and the mild disappointment, Bidwell probably wanted to move on and put Green Bay behind him. Plus, Bidwell will probably not face any competition next season in Tampa Bay while with the Packers he would have to outkick Travis Dorsch because the small contract amount wouldn't guarantee Bidwell a roster spot.

More proof that I'm an idiot and Chad Clifton is a bargain for the Packers: Chicago paid $14 million in guaranteed money for starting right tackle/failed left tackle John Tait. Tait is a solid player, but his name doesn't bring images of Anthony Munoz to mind. Still, Chicago needed to improve their O-line that footballoutsiders.com ranked as 26th in run blocking and 27th in pass blocking. Chicago probably would have been better off spending that money to improve their anemic 31st defensive pass rush. Is Chicago better off spending $14 million for Tait, when they could have resigned pass rusher Rosevelt Colvin last offseason for half of that amount? Who knows if Colvin will come back from his 2003 injury in New England, so maybe Chicago did the right thing, but its always good news to see Chicago making questionable roster moves (unfortunately Chicago figured out Kordell Stewart wasn't the answer to any question).

The Drew Henson experience landed in Dallas. So now Dallas has two former baseball prospects, Chad Hutchinson and Henson, as backup quarterbacks and one starting quarterback, Quincy Carter, who might be better off playing baseball. I have no idea whether Carter can throw or hit a breaking pitch, but after watching Carter in a couple of NFL games its possible that he is better at baseball then he is at running an NFL offense. I am glad Mike Sherman gave Henson a look, considered the possiblities, and then let the Henson sideshow move on to the most appropriate NFL team to be running a sideshow.

It is good to see the team giving Marcus Wilkins another shot. He showed some promise as a situational pass rusher and special team player in 2002, before injuries derailed his 2003 season. Hopefully his healthy return can improve the special teams and finally give the Packers a good reason to dump Jamal Reynolds.

The Packers wined and dined a couple of interesting free agents.

Strong safety Mike Logan is out in Pittsburgh, making way for last year's 1st round draft choice Troy Polamalu. Apparently he would be well received by the Packers' beat writers because he won an award in Pittsburgh last year for his work with the media, for what that is worth. He tore his knee up in the 2002 playoffs, but came back to start 16 games in 2003. Pittsburgh's pass defense was 6.3% worse than average in 2003, according to footballoutsiders.com, but had one of the best run defenses (19.6% better than average) while Logan was their 3rd leading tackler. Logan sounds like Marques Anderson with more experience. No strong safety has signed this month, although strong safety Greg Wesley resigned with Kansas City for $5 million in guaranteed money several weeks ago so that might be in Logan's mind. The strong safety market has been dead the last couple of offseasons, so I would be surprised if the Packers jumped in with an offer and instead are waiting to see if Logan is still available right before the draft at a reduced price.

Mark Roman played free safety for Cincinnati last year, but he was shown the door when Cincinnati signed free agent Kim Herring. If "defensive genius" Marvin Lewis doesn't want you anymore, does that mean the Packers should be interested in him? Maybe the Packers are looking at him as a backup safety/cornerback.

William Bartee would be a project. He played in college at Oklahoma, and that makes me compare him to fellow alum Torrence Marshall, in that both players have the physical ability to play at a high level in the NFL, but neither has gotten the job done. Bartee has played 4 seasons in the NFL, partipated in 57 games, and has never once made an interception. He was bumped out of his starting cornerback spot after 2002, he was the 3rd cornerback in 2003, and Kansas City's pass defense improved from 12.5% worse than average in 2002 to 2.7% better than average in 2003 according to footballoutsiders.com, but their opponents might have avoided a good pass defense to run the ball against Kansas City's anemic 10.1% worse than average run defense in 2003. The year ended on a really bad note for Kansas City when Peyton Manning dominated their pass defense in the playoffs. Signing Bartee and counting on him to fill the 3rd cornerback position sounds like a substantial risk.

Finally, the Packers brought in backup quarterback Billy Volek. It doesn't sound like any team is looking for a starting quarterback, so now he seems to be weighing his backup offers. Volek played well when healthy in 2003 (QB rating of 101.4) and Tennessee would probably prefer to have him backup Steve McNair in 2004 but they have big cap problems. According to jsonline.com, offensive coordinator Tom Rossley said "I'm hoping [Brett Favre will] play another four or five years" which is exactly what I want to hear. Volek is the best free agent quarterback available at this point, for what that is worth, so I would expect him to find a better opportunity for playing time elsewhere behind an injury prone starting quarterback. Until Favre retires, hopefully in four or five years, the Packers should keep the backup spots occupied by low cost veterans (Doug Pederson) or low cost projects (Craig Nall) who could come in relief if Favre misses some time, but no highly paid quarterbacks of the future please.

If the Packers don't resign Michael Hawthorne or don't acquire a new third cornerback in the next month or in the draft, Atlanta is likely to release former Packer Tyrone Williams on June 1. Williams was not a great player, and blew his punt coverage responsiblities during the 2002 playoff game vs. Atlanta which led to an Eric Metcalf fumble, but he could be the third cornerback for the Packers in 2004.

Although Williams was a useful cornerback for the Packers, Atlanta gave him a $3 million signing bonus for one year of disappointing play. Now Atlanta is blowing up its entire secondary, releasing all of the players likely to stay out of jail, and took the first step by signing former San Francisco corner Jason Webster to a 6 year deal with a $7 million signing bonus. The NY Jets signed a cornerback David Barrett to a 6 year deal with a $4.5 million signing bonus plus a $1 million roster bonus probably due next March. I had never even heard of Barrett before he signed this weekend, apparently he played with Arizona for the last 4 seasons. The more I read about deals like these, the high priced signings of second tier players and their release in subsequent seasons, the more I'm convinced the big early spenders on other teams free agents are the ones unlikely to succeed in the NFL.

The NFL continues to make the Packers signing of Chad Clifton for an $11 million bonus look positively frugal. Houston gave right tackle Todd Wade a $10 million signing bonus. This would be in line with the signing bonuses for other top flight right tackles, Washington's Jon Jansen got $8 million while St. Louis's Kyle Turley got $10 million, that signed last offseason. However, is Todd Wade even a top flight right tackle? Si.com didn't even list him as a top 10 free agent offensive lineman, while si.com determined Clifton was the 2nd best available, behind only multiple Pro Bowler Orlando Pace.

On the bargain side of the free agent tackle aisle, Tampa Bay signed veteran San Francisco offensive tackle Derrick Deese. Deese can play left tackle, guard, or right tackle, and only cost a $2.5 million signing bonus. Although one player doesn't make an offensive line, it is interesting that San Francisco's offensive line was good last season while Miam's (where Wade played) was a disaster and I am curious whether Wade or Deese will be the better player next season.

There were two signings that made defensive tackle Cletidus Hunt's signing last offseason look like a bargain. Houston signed Robaire Smith with an $8 million signing bonus, after Smith had a career best 4.5 sacks in his first season as a starter. Then, Washington gave Cornelius Griffin an $8 million signing bonus after his 1.5 sack 2003 season. Both players appear very comparable to Hunt, who has 15 sacks for his career along with a career high 5.5 sacks in the 2002 season, except Hunt signed for $1.5 million less than Smith or Griffin. Aside from the financial savings, this savings might be the difference between filling out the roster with quality veterans instead of untested rookies. The Packers are well positioned to make it to the Super Bowl next season, and the fewer rookies they have to rely on next season the better.

Griffin brings up the whole matter of Washington, who have given out substantial signing bonuses for the second straight season. $15 million to Clinton Portis, $8 million to Griffin, $3 million to recently released Phillip Daniels, $7 million to Marcus Washington, and $8.6 million to Mark Brunell. Brunell might not even be the starting quarterback. Back in December, Washington gave Lavar Arrington a $20 million bonus. That is $62 million in bonuses, although some of it was deferred until later years. This is all on top of the approximately $30 million in bonuses Washington gave to players like Laveranues Coles, Chad Morton, Jon Jansen, and Randy Thomas last offseason. No other team has even approached this level of spending, because they don't have it or are unwilling to spend it, but this spending will explode Washington's salary cap in 2 or 3 years. Washington can renegotiate salary out into future years, but this team has the potential to one day have more dead weight on its salary cap then any team in the NFL had ever believed was possible.

Much to my disappointment, Chad Clifton gets his $11 million signing bonus from the Packers. That is the market rate for left tackles of Clifton's ability, but it begs the question; why is a quality left tackle so much more valuable than a quality left guard or any other position on the offensive line? Is it that much more important to have a left tackle who can handle power and speed rushers on the quarterback's blind side than a good guard or center who is adept at pulling on runs and picking up blitzes on passes? When Mike Wahle went into free agency two offseasons ago, you could hear the crickets chirping because there was so little interest in him. They are both comparable players for their positions, so I don't agree that Clifton is worth so much more than Wahle. At this price, Clifton is more valuable than the rest of the line.

The NFL has seemed to go bonus crazy this offseason, so its good to see the Packers only gave an $11 million bonus to Clifton this offseason instead of the $10 million he would have gotten, hypothetically, if he was a healthy free agent left tackle last offseason. $18 million for Champ Bailey? In 2003, Washington had the 14th ranked pass defense, so one player does not improve an entire pass defense. $17 million for Clinton Portis? If Portis is worth a $17 million bonus, how much is Ahman Green's agent asking for in an extension? Then there is the titanic $34.5 million for Peyton Manning. Is Manning worth 75% more than Donovan McNabb? Is he worth over 200% more than Brett Favre? Reading on espn.com it seemed to me like Indianapolis completely messed this up by not taking care of Manning last offseason. If Manning hadn't been signed this week for the insane bonus of $34.5 floated by Manning's agent, Indianapolis would have been forced to cut 8 players, or 15% of their roster, that they didn't want to cut. Manning shouldn't be blamed for asking for whatever contract he wants, but Indianapolis shouldn't have left themselves in this position. Then today, Philadelphia gives Jevon Kearse $16 million as a reward for not being healthy since his rookie season. All these signings make Clifton's signing appear positively frugal.

In addition, the Packers cut Gilbert Brown, who they mistakenly gave a 6 year deal last offseason. The signing bonus was minimal, so it isn't a huge cap hit, but the better policy with Brown was to keep him on a year to year basis as had been done the previous couple of seasons. Brown gave the team everything he had last season, playing the entire season with a torn muscle, but he eventually lost his starting job to Grady Jackson. Prior to Jackson, the Packers run defense was better with Brown then without, but his release this week probably marks the final appearance for Brown on the roster. I'll remember Brown for his spectacular 1996 season with the Packers, although it doesn't show up on the stat line, Brown was a terror in the NFL that season.