Family Night Scrimmage: Eddie Lacy Shines

It seems like every other year these Family Night events are cancelled due to thunderstorms, but the Green Bay Packers were able to scrimmage Saturday night in front of just over 63,000 fans. There were a couple of interesting takeaways:

At running back, James Starks started, Eddie Lacy replaced him on the first drive, Johnathan Franklin went third, and Alex Green was fourth. The only back who's really suffered this week is DuJuan Harris, who's been held out after having a cyst removed back in June. The snap count between the top four backs was almost identical, however Lacy stood out with 65 yards on eight carries behind the first team offensive line. Technically, Green came into camp at the top of the depth chart, but (surprisingly) Starks is healthy, he certainly knows the offense, and that might have given him the early advantage, though Green ran the ball well during scrimmage too. The position looks like a toss up.

At quarterback, Graham Harrell easily outplayed B.J. Coleman. For whatever progress Coleman has made in his second NFL season, he keeps turning the ball over in camp, though he didn't get much help from Jeremy Ross who dropped one pass before he slipped on another route which led to a pick-six INT. The talk earlier this week that Coleman might move ahead of Harrell seems well premature.

At right tackle, Marshall Newhouse is the starter but he was quickly replaced by rookie David Bakhtiari, so it looks like they are closely competing for the job. I really like Bakhtiari's potential, so I don't see this as a bad thing. Don Barclay started at right tackle at the end of last season, but he was awful in pass protection and is being moved all over this line so far in camp, apparently to see where he might fit. Former first round pick Derek Sherrod hasn't practiced at all, as far as I've read. The competition might already be down to Newhouse and Bakhtiari, though the winner shouldn't be obvious until the second or third preseason game.

I wrote about Tyrone Walker last week, he's still a long-shot, but he stood out during the scrimmage with a couple nice receptions.

Also, Mason Crosby's kicking woes continued and the boo-birds let him have it. I'm not sure how much more time the team will be willing to give him; they've already given him more than many franchises would have.

Position Review: Running Backs

This should be one of the most talked about positions since the Green Bay Packers completely shook up the roster. Gone are veteran starters Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson while three rookies have been added.

Position Review: Offensive Line Guards and Tackles
Position Review: Offensive Line-Center
Position Review: Wide Receivers
Position Review: Quarterback

It's not clear who will be the starter. The rookies might be ready to grab the ball and run, but they're probably not up to speed with the overall playbook and pass blocking, which might give the returning veterans an advantage for the first few weeks of the season. It would be a surprise if the Packers kept more than three running backs, so a couple of once promising players might not be with the team much longer.

DuJuan Harris. He might seem like the player with the least upside, but he finished 2012 as the starter and every player and coach seems to rave about him. He was productive last season in six games, rushing for 4.6 ypc during the regular season and four touchdowns (two in the playoffs). He might be the best bet to start the season.

Eddie Lacy. He's the player I want to see on the field, but he comes with legitimate injury risks and not a lot of college experience. He might need some time to get ready (and healthy) for the NFL.

Johnathan Franklin. He was talked about as a potential 2nd round pick, so I was surprised he was still available later (and apparently the Packers were too because they traded up in the 4th round to select him). He's lighter (205 lbs.) than Lacy and might be more of a complementary back but his speed score was solid and it could be a sign that he should hold up just fine as the primary rusher.

Alex Green. Maybe he should be higher on the list now that he's another year removed from his torn ACL, but he didn't impress last season and I don't see how he fits with the Packers anymore. Supposedly, he's at the top of the depth chart, but that June ranking means nothing if he's only averaging a couple yards per carry during the preseason. I thought he could be a trade candidate, but the team seems to be giving him the chance to start, so he'll stay if he runs well. If he flops during the preseason, I doubt the Packers will make room for him or be able to find anything in trade.

James Starks. He came into the NFL after a lost college season due to injury, and he hasn't been able to stay healthy as a pro either. Also, he didn't impress last season when healthy (3.6 ypc, one carry of greater than 20 yards). I doubt he has any trade value, but a strong preseason might encourage another team to take a chance on him as a free agent.

Angelo Pease. Despite playing on Kansas State's high powered offense, he wasn't much of a factor in college (333 rushing yards in 2012). McCarthy likes what he's seen, but Pease's 4.59 40 time is a little slow for a back his size (5-10, 211 lbs.). He might have a better chance of staying due to his eligibility for the practice squad, but the Packers might not need him if they have three other backs on the 53-man roster.

What The Loss Of Cedric Benson Means To The Packers

It's not a big surprise because just last week RB Cedric Benson said he was talking to more doctors about his injured foot, but now we know that it will keep him out the rest of the year.

McCarthy: Benson had surgery yesterday. He will not be back with us this season.
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) November 29, 2012

Just looking at their win-loss record, his absence shouldn't make much of a difference. Since he was injured during their loss to the Colts, the Packers have gone 5-1, while losing 3 of 5 with him as their starter. Of course, that isn't the entire picture.

While Football Outsiders gives him a negative DVOA percentage, his percentage is still higher than either RB James Starks or RB Alex Green, and Green in particular has struggled. The only back with a positive grade is FB John Kuhn, who's excelled during his few carries (12). Really, Kuhn's not that good and his actual value is closer to break even based on his play in 2010. Kuhn might be better than Starks, but it's not by a wide margin. If Starks is the main ball carrier going forward, I'd expect he'll end the season closer to his 2011 performance and only slightly worse than Kuhn or Benson.

There's only one game remaining on the regular season schedule when they might really miss Benson; the December 16th game against the Bears. Here's the teams left on the schedule (two games against the Vikings) and each team's defensive rankings according to Football Outsiders:

Team	Pass Ranking	Rush Ranking
Vikings	24	8
Lions	20	18
Bears	1	3
Titans	29	26

He could provide a boost against the Vikings and Lions, but both teams are struggling to defend against the pass, so that's probably where the offense should attack anyway. Against the Titans, who can't seem to stop any team's rushing attack, it probably doesn't matter who's carrying the ball.

The Bears have the best defense in the NFL, so it'll be a tough game no matter. But Benson had a strong game in their previous meeting (20 carries for 81 yards). If he'll be missed in any game this season, that would seem like the one.

Cedric Benson Is Talking To Another Doctor

Bob McGinn reported that Green Bay Packers' RB Cedric Benson may need foot surgery, and he's still not ready to practice, though he's eligible to return.

While I'm not his biggest fan, he's not a big play threat and he fumbles too much, there's no denying his success this season.

Cedric Benson has not played since Week 5. He STILL has the three best PPR performances by Packers RBs this season.
— Chad Parsons (@PFF_ChadParsons) November 22, 2012

He's got a low bar to clear, neither RB Alex Green or RB James Starks has done much this season, but his hard running style is probably the best fit for the Packers' offense because their offensive line isn't good at opening rushing lanes. They need a back who can muscle his way for a couple yards even when there's nowhere to go.

Starks did a solid impersonation of Benson's style last week against the Lions, so I'm not surprised he's regained the starting job. While he won't give them a dynamic rushing attack, he'll be dangerous enough to make defenses bite on play action, and that'll be good enough.

Aaron Rodgers Says: "We've Got To Run The Ball Better"

His comments shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has watched the Green Bay Packers over the past three games, but QB Aaron Rodgers says the running game isn't good enough:

“Quantity is important – we want to have a certain amount of runs every game to keep them honest,” Rodgers said, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “But I have to say the quality of them has not been anywhere where we’d like them. . . . We’ve got to run the ball better.”

Mike McCarthy says RB Alex Green will remain the starter, but his backup plan is either a still recovering (toe injury) RB James Starks or a wide receiver (Randall Cobb). Those aren't great options. While McCarthy is talking positive in public, that doesn't mean he's saying the same thing in private. Back in 2010, he spoke well of RB Brandon Jackson shortly after RB Ryan Grant was lost for the season, but he didn't stick with Jackson as the season went on.

While Green and his 2.9 yards per carry have not been the solution, it wasn't like the running game was dominant behind RB Cedric Benson (3.5 ypc). While both backs could be doing more, the blocking up front has to be looked at too.

After eight weeks, Football Outsiders offensive line stats have them ranked against the run at No. 28 overall. At first glance, the problem seems to lie with the running backs. The Packers "stuffed rank" of No. 24 overall indicates that the line isn't terrible at letting defenders make a tackle behind the line of scrimmage, but still it's a poor ranking. Where the Packers come in near, or at, the bottom is against the second level and for open field yards. That's a sign that the backs aren't doing enough even when the line is blocking well.

Looking at the Packers rankings by directional yards, the only good news is when the Packers run up the middle (4.13 adjusted line yards per carry; No. 16 overall). They're at their worst when they run to the right tackle (2.54 ALY per carry; No. 32 overall). I noticed against the Rams that the Packers seemed to run mostly to the left, which was probably the right thing to do if RT Bryan Bulaga is getting so little push to that side. Football Outsiders says that the Packers run off right tackle only 12% of the time (15% off left tackle) and 50% of the time straight up the middle. At least the coaches realize where they have their most success.

One example that comes to mind regarding Bulaga's struggles: against the Jaguars, the Packers had a 3rd and 1 at the Jags 14 yard line with about two minutes remaining in the third quarter. They ran Green to the right and Bulaga was pushed back at the line of scrimmage after the snap. When he took a step back with his right foot to re-plant himself, he tripped Green and the conversion attempt failed.

There's no easy fix here. Maybe one of the current backs on the roster will emerge, but they'll probably need to look for an upgrade in the offseason. There are some trade options available, but the current options at running back aren't the entire problem. Maybe moving Bulaga to left tackle, which was rumored this summer after Chad Clifton was released, is the way to go. Maybe LT Marshall Newhouse can provide a stronger push at right tackle, or they could find a right tackle more in the mold of RG Josh Sitton to open up room on the right side. Derek Sherrod won't help in 2012, but he was very good at blocking against the second level in college, so he might be part of the solution in 2013.

In the short term, the best they can do is keep handing the ball to Green and see what happens when Benson and FB John Kuhn (though I've never been overly impressed with Kuhn's work as a lead blocker) return from injury. With the passing game playing great, they can probably get away with this patchwork situation. But they'll need to make a serious effort to improve the running game at some point in the future.

Watching The Kids Play: Alex Green and Casey Hayward

The recent injuries to RB Cedric Benson and CB Sam Shields have opened up more playing time for others.

RB Alex Green. His line for 22 carries and 65 yards last Sunday against the Texans wasn't outstanding, but I'm still thinking back on his 41 yard carry against the Colts. It was the big run that set-up their final touchdown. If there's been one thing missing from the Packers offense over the past three seasons (since RB Ryan Grant circa 2009), it was the potential for a big play from the running game. Benson is stronger in between the tackles, but he's not a threat to go for 40+ yards (his long on the season is 11). Green's only had one great play so far, but he showed the potential in the past. Their other option, RB James Starks, ran one for 40 yards last season but I've never viewed him as a breakaway threat like Green. Is Green a legitimate starter or should the offense turn to Starks (assuming he's back from his turf toe injury)? Or should Benson return to the starting job as soon as he can?

CB Casey Hayward. Maybe the Texans game was a fluke, but 2 interceptions and 3 pass defenses in one game is pretty outstanding. It brings his total for the season to 3 interceptions and 6 pass defenses. For the sake of a rookie comparison, Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne (6th overall) has zero interceptions and 1 pass defense. Has Hayward moved ahead of Shields and should he play ahead of Shields even if he's healthy?

Please Don't Feed Cedric Benson The Ball

This isn't something that's going to have a major impact on the Packers' offense, over the first four games they've attempted 157 passes (not including sacks) and rushed the ball only 88 times, but it was discouraging to see offensive coordinator Tom Clements say this bit of conventional wisdom:

“He’s a workhorse and when he touches the ball, the more he touches it, the better he gets,” said Packers offensive coordinator Tom Clements on Monday of Benson. “We’d like to work those other guys in there if the opportunity presents itself but you try to get (Benson) the ball to get him going.” 

This looks like a corollary of The Establishment Clause (a.k.a. establish the run). Teams don't run to win, they run when they are winning. He may look better as he approaches the 20th carry mark because it probably means his team is winning.

I view more touches as an opportunity for more fumbles, which was something that almost cost them against the Seahawks. RB Cedric Benson is a strong runner who is probably the best back on the roster at fighting through tackles. His 53% success rate is the 10th best according to Football Outsiders but they only rank him as the 17th best back overall. He's useful, but he's not going to make the offense that much better and the risk of fumbles is real.

Also, this would take RB Alex Green out of the mix and he has the potential to be an explosive player. He was eased back into action following his knee surgery, but he came close to breaking a couple runs during the preseason. He has upside that Benson doesn't have and he may even be a better running back right now, if he was given the opportunity. RB James Starks (when healthy) is a lot like Benson (strong runner) and neither back is a big play threat. Green could provide that element to the offense which has been lacking since RB Ryan Grant's 2009 season.

What Role Will James Starks Play On Sunday?

Instead of discussing the dumb question whether QB Aaron Rodgers is a great leader (of course he is), it's better to write about a real football question.

WR Greg Jennings (groin), DL CJ Wilson (groin) and RB James Starks all practicing today #Packers
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) September 18, 2012

Of course, they'll be happy to have Jennings back and he'll slide right back into his starting role. Wilson should still be their run stopper at defensive end and he might play a bigger role if they focus on stopping RB Marshawn Lynch.

But what role will Starks play on Sunday? Will he play at all? I don't have an answer and I don't expect Mike McCarthy will reveal his plans in a press conference either. Here are the players he could replace on the 45-man active roster this Sunday.

RB Cedric Benson. I haven't seen anything to indicate that the Packers aren't happy with him or he'll be removed as the starter. It's possible they'll simply re-insert Starks into the starting role and deactivate Benson on Sunday, but that seems unlikely. Especially since Mike McCarthy said Starks will have some "transition time."

RB Brandon Saine. Surprisingly, this seems like the least likely move. Saine has been covering punts and kicks over the first two games and I can't recall ever seeing Starks on special teams. He certainly hasn't been a leading special teams tackler, an honor that was shared last season by LBs D.J. Smith and Brad Jones.

RB Alex Green. On the other hand, I haven't seen Green on special teams this season and that could be intentional as they easy his surgically reconstructed knee back into action. If Starks takes anyone's place on Sunday, it probably would be Green's.

Bottom line, unless Starks slides back into the starting role and pushes Benson aside, which seems unlikely, I'm not sure what he'll be doing against the Seahawks. He might take Green's role of carrying the ball a couple times or he might spend a lot of time standing on the sidelines. Even if he doesn't play much (if at all) on Sunday, you never know when they'll need him to take over a prominent role again.

Two Key Young Players: Alex Green and Jerel Worthy

GM Ted Thompson and his staff have made few personnel mistakes, but the decision to let DE Cullen Jenkins leave in free agency has left it's mark on the pass rush. I'm not expecting anything from their Plan A, Mike Neal, but I'm watching Plan B, 2nd round DE Jerel Worthy, closely. There hasn't been much to watch so far.

The analysis at NFL.com from an anonymous scout was pretty spot: he's average, at best. That's similar to what PackApologist wrote a couple weeks ago; he's looked okay in camp but on at least one night, he made some noise. It's still early, but I'd be disappointed if Worthy didn't show something this preseason. The good news is that I've been impressed with Nick Perry so far; he might not be a future All-Pro, and he looked lost in coverage on one play against the Browns, but he'll be a strong pass rusher.

RB Alex Green hasn't been able to show much, the trainers are limiting his plays from scrimmage while he rehabs his knee, but I liked what I saw from him against the Browns. He almost broke one run off left tackle, an arm tripped him up before he was able to make a move in the second level, but he showed a potential explosive burst that looked like Ahman Green in his prime.

The Packers 90-man Roster: The Backs

While these three positions are all on the offensive side of the ball, they don't have much in common, except that they should each produce little competition.

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Cooper, Nic	5-10	249	23	Rookie
Hoese, Jon	6-2	238	23	1
Kuhn, John	6-0	250	29	7

Kuhn made the Pro Bowl last season, Hoese was signed onto the practice squad in December 2011 after his release the previous September, and Cooper's an undrafted free agent. There had been battles at this position in recent years, but now, Kuhn's guaranteed to start, while Hoese and Cooper would be lucky to make the practice squad. The overall competition level here is very low.

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Coleman, B.J.	6-3	231	23	Rookie
Harrell, Graham	6-2	215	27	1
Rodgers, Aaron	6-2	225	28	8

The only competition is for the backup job, and Harrell might not even be battling Coleman for it. If not Harrell, would the coaches trust Coleman or look elsewhere for a veteran backup? While Matt Flynn was named the backup as a rookie in 2008, the odds are very long that it would happen again, especially for a small school player like Coleman. I'm expecting Coleman to spend a year developing on the practice squad no matter what happens to Harrell. The coaches are speaking highly of Harrell's development, and they've made no effort to find a veteran to compete against him, so I'm expecting him to look sharp this preseason. The overall competition between these three players is low, but Harrell's got a lot to prove this preseason.

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Bennett, Du'ane	5-9	213	23	Rookie
Green, Alex	6-0	225	24	2
Saine, Brandon	5-11	220	23	2
Starks, James	6-2	218	26	3
Tyler, Marc	5-11	226	23	Rookie

I haven't looked closely at every position on the roster, but I'd be shocked if there's a position with less experience. James Starks has played in only 21 career NFL games (including the playoffs) but he's by far the most experienced player of the bunch. Green appears to have a solid hold on the backup spot because the Packers made no effort to find a Plan B by either re-signing Ryan Grant or drafting another young back. So I expect the top three running backs will be Starks, Green, and Saine, with Saine's only concern whether he'll make the 53-man roster or have to stay on the practice squad again in 2012. However, Bennett and Tyler could challenge Saine with a strong preseason, and the three undrafted players may find themselves in a real battle for that final spot. The overall competition level is average, but only for the job as the No. 3 back.