Who Will The Packers Sign Among Their Restricted Free Agents?

Because the Green Bay Packers' collection of restricted free agents consist entirely of players who were undrafted, the team has some tough choices to make.

My ranking of #Packers' 5 restricted free agents: 1-Dietrich-Smith. 2-Shields. 3-Crabtree. 4-Zombo. 5-Francois. pck.rs/XghbMY
— Mike Vandermause (@MikeVandermause) February 18, 2013

The first question is how much does it cost to tender a contract to a restricted free agent? The levels don't appear to be publicly known, but last season they ranged from $2.742 million to $1.26 million. A tender at the lowest level is tied to the player's original draft selection, but since the Packers didn't draft these five players, the lowest tender will be essentially worthless. The Packers will have to offer the higher amounts to give themselves draft pick compensation protection and that might not work with their salary cap.

The good news is that teams seem to have no interest in signing restricted free agents, especially ones that would require them surrendering their first or second round pick.

C Evan Dietrich-Smith. Would any team offer him a contract to become their starting center? I don't think so, but the Packers probably know better than me. His salary was $619,650 in 2012, so a first (approx. $3 miliion) or second-round tender (approx. $2 million) would be a huge increase. I don't think the Packers want to pay $2 to $3 million for a backup lineman. Mike Vandermause thinks the Packers will offer a first or second-round tender because there's no other candidate on the roster who could start at center. If he does receive a higher tender, it would likely mean he'll be the starter next season and the Packers will look for their center of the future in the later rounds.

CB Sam Shields. It's a no-brainer that he'll receive a first or second-round tender since he's their starting cornerback. Either way, he'll receive a significant raise from $547,540 in 2012 to $2 to $3 million next season. But should it be a first-round or a second-round offer? A second-round tender should be enough to scare off every team. The only downside is that Shields might feel slighted by receiving a second-round tender (and approx. $1 million less).

TE Tom Crabtree. Yes, he's a fan-favorite, but I can't see any reason why he should be tendered a contract. He's obviously liked by the coaches because he's played ahead of TE D.J. Williams and TE Ryan Taylor for the past two seasons, but he probably doesn't want to leave Green Bay and would be happy with a reasonable multi-year deal. Another team or two might show some interest, but I can't see anyone giving him big money.

LB Frank Zombo and LB Robert Francois. I can't see either of them receiving a tender offer. Zombo's struggled too much with injuries and Francois is buried too deep on the bench. Plus, the Packers do have to open up some roster spots for the 2013 draft class.

Packers Free Agency: Who Might Return In 2013?

When the Green Bay Packers have let a player become an unrestricted free agent in recent years, it's a pretty good sign that they don't intend to bring him back. One recent exception was LB Erik Walden, who re-signed last year for near the veteran's minimum, but he might have hurt more than he helped last season.

For those who've asked, here's the list of #Packers unrestricted and restricted free agents: sulia.com/c/green-bay-pa…
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) February 14, 2013

RB Cedric Benson, RB Ryan Grant, WR Greg Jennings, ILB Brad Jones, and OLB Erik Walden are all unrestricted free agents.

TE Tom Crabtree, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, ILB Rob Francois, CB Sam Shields, and OLB Frank Zombo are all restricted free agents. Since the restricted free agent market is for all practical purposes extinct, those players aren't going anywhere. They will sign modest one-year contracts to return, unless the Packers decide they don't want them back at any price. I'd expect them all to return for the start of training camp.

Do you see the Packers re-signing any of their unrestricted free agents?

They might wait until April, but they could re-sign Cedric Benson. They were pretty happy with his style of running before his season ending foot injury, and if he can pass a physical, he might return as the veteran alternative to RB DuJuan Harris or any back they add in the draft.

Jennings will probably be too expensive, despite what these former GMs think, because there are some teams with money to spend. All it takes is one serious suitor for Jennings to become too expensive.

Both Grant and Walden were allowed to leave last year and only played roles with the team because of injuries. I don't think the Packers will bring them back to do the same thing in 2013.

The Packers would probably like Brad Jones to return, but after a year of starting at inside linebacker, he might look for a starting job elsewhere. He might even find some team willing to let him start and pay him a couple million per year over the next few years. That's not a lot of money, but the Packers would only use him as a special teams player and backup linebacker, so a couple million is too much to pay him.

In the end, the Packers probably won't re-sign any unrestricted free agents before March, but they could return later in the month.

Some Strange Snap Counts Against The Giants

Luckily for everyone involved, I'm not going to say much about DJ World Peace other than to point out that players often rehab away from their team's facility. LB Ray Lewis is another example of a player who isn't rehabbing at his team's facility, though I've seen him on the sidelines during Ravens' games. While it's a P.R. headache to see the team's second leading rusher booking shows at gentlemen's clubs, it probably has no impact on his recovery.

As for some actual Packer news, Wes Hodkiewicz has some interesting snap counts from their game against the Giants:

#Packers rookie LB Dezman Moses played all 65 defensive snaps versus the Giants. Erik Walden (34) and Frank Zombo (31) split other OLB snaps
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) November 26, 2012

It's no surprise to see that Moses played every snap since he was about the only defensive player who stood out in a positive way. But Walden had a good game against the Lions so I'm surprised that Zombo's snaps came entirely at Walden's expense. However, both Walden and Zombo were unable to get to the quarterback or shed blocks against the run, so it didn't matter which one of them was on the field against the Giants.

Casey Hayward only saw 21 defensive plays in the game. Offensively, James Jones went 56 plays without a reception. Driver with only 7 snaps
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) November 26, 2012

Unless the coaches are concerned that Hayward is hitting the rookie wall, I don't see why they limited his snaps. Having an extra safety at Hayward's expense wasn't any help. It's even worse than that for Jones: he wasn't targeted on a single pass attempt. I'm surprised they didn't make any effort to get him involved in the offense.

Having said all that, none of these trends may continue into their next game. The Packers seem to change their player rotations every week. It wouldn't have made a difference in the results, but limiting the impact Hayward and Jones couldn't have helped.

Dezman Moses and Frank Zombo Will Replace Clay Matthews Against The Lions

#Packers OLB coach Kevin Greene said of Zombo: "My plans is to get him and Moses in a nice little rotation."
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) November 16, 2012

The absence of LB Clay Matthews has been my biggest concern for the Green Bay Packers' defense over the past three seasons, and hopefully the game against the Lions on Sunday will be the only time we see it this season. There's no replacing him and the defense will take some lumps without him.

I'm not surprised to see LB Dezman Moses will start in Matthews' place, but I wasn't expecting LB Frank Zombo to return because he hasn't played at all this season. I don't expect Zombo to make a big impact, but Moses and LB Erik Walden seem to play better when they have to play fewer snaps. At least he can help them stay fresh.

Nick Perry Is Probably Lost For The Season

The Green Bay Packers have been getting a lot of bad injury news lately, and some more was dropped on election night.

We interrupt this election to bring you breaking @packers news. LB Nick Perry had surgery on wrist today. He's expected to go on IR #Packers
— Lance Allan (@lanceallan) November 7, 2012

On one hand this isn't such a big deal since Perry has only recorded two sacks and two QB hits. On the other hand, it'll turn 2012 into a lost season for their 1st round pick who might have given the team it's best chance of weathering the storm while LB Clay Matthews is out with a hamstring injury.

Supposedly Matthews's hamstring injury isn't as bad as it was in 2010 and the Packers probably have a good idea on how to manage the injury since it's been a problem in the past. But when he does return to the field, he might not be the same player. Back in 2010, he played through the month of November with an injured hamstring and, unsurprisingly, he wasn't himself. One game that comes to mind was the win over the 49ers, when he lined up against then struggling rookie RT Anthony Davis and only recorded one QB hit (no sacks). Before his 2010 hamstring injury, Matthews was dismantling poor offensive tackles like Davis. Once he returns this season, he might not be much of a factor if he's not completely healthy.

No defensive lineman has made much of an impact this season, though DE Mike Neal did beat LG Daryn Colledge last week for a sack, so it'll fall on the linebackers to make a difference in the pass rush. That might come from inside if defensive coordinator Dom Capers dials up more inside blitzes from LB A.J. Hawk and LB Brad Jones, but primarily it's got to come from the outside.

They only offered him a minimal one year deal in free agency, and drafted Perry to replace him, but LB Erik Walden has remained and their No. 2 pass rusher with 11 QB hits on the season. Walden is as inconsistent as ever, he had a great game against the Cardinals but did nothing against the Jaguars the week before, and he'll certainly struggle if Matthews isn't around to occupy additional blockers. He'll be asked to do more, and I'm not sure he's up to the challenge, if Matthews is out.

LB Dezman Moses has gotten rave reviews all year, but he hasn't made a big impact on defense this season. In 115 defensive snaps so far this season, he's recorded 1 sack and 2 QB hits. There's an argument to be made that he just needs more of an opportunity, and it looks like he'll be getting a chance to prove it.

LB Frank Zombo has just returned from the PUP list and he was inactive last week against the Cardinals, so I'm not expecting anything from him until he proves he can step back onto the field. Even then, since he's played so little over the last two seasons, it's hard to believe he'll be an effective player immediately.

Packers Down To 75 Players: Jarius Wynn Released

The Green Bay Packers announced 10 roster moves to shrink down to 75 players by today's deadline. Most of the transactions involved injured players and only one healthy player was released.

DE Jarius Wynn. This isn't the first time he's been released by the Packers, so it's not a big surprise. He was re-signed during the great injury rush of 2010, after Justin Harrell's annual season-ending injury. He's also one of the few players I've actually interviewed, so I'm disappointed to see that he's gone, but his play on the field didn't earn him a roster spot. He had a strong couple months down the stretch in 2010, and he was useful during their playoff run to the Super Bowl, but he was a non-factor last season after recording 3 sacks in their first three games. He was involved in a couple plays last week against the Bengals, but he was clearly behind other players like Philip Merling. The Packers might have to release three defensive lineman by the end of the week, so the final game will be very important for Merling, Lawrence Guy, and Mike Neal.

FB Jon Hoese was released, but he's also been out with a hamstring injury, so it's a release related to an injury. The former undrafted free agent was released last season too, and then brought back onto the practice squad late in the year, so we might see him again.

TE Andrew Quarless and LB Frank Zombo have been hurting all training camp, but they both have a chance to return after six weeks on the PUP list. I'm a little surprised OL Derek Sherrod wasn't listed here too, which may be a sign that he'll be ready to play soon.

It's too bad to see LB Desmond Bishop's season end before it began, but his hamstring injury was serious and he'll be out for the season on I.R. A few other players were also placed on I.R. (RB Du'ane Bennett, TE DeMarco Cosby, G Ray Dominguez, DE Johnny Jones, and WR Shaky Smithson) but I wouldn't have expected any of them to make the roster if they had been healthy. Rob Demovsky expects those last five players will "receive settlements and be waived."

There are a few other players that I expected to be released (OL Shea Allard, OL Greg Van Roten, and WR Diondre Borel all stood out in a bad way against the Bengals) but they still need players for the final preseason game against the Chiefs. The starters aren't likely to play, and Aaron Rodgers might not play at all. The front office might have a good idea of their final roster, but some guys will get at least one more chance to make a good impression.

Desmond Bishop Failed His Physical?

The Green Bay Packers announced via the NFL transaction wire the players who failed their physicals. Among them were three expected players that Mike McCarthy named earlier, a couple of backups (Brooks and Jones) who I'm not expecting much from anyway, and two new names: LB Desmond Bishop and LB Frank Zombo.

I'd written recently about Bishop's poor 2011 season, and inside linebacker isn't a position they need to panic about. I'm not expecting much of a difference if D.J. Smith was forced to play, and he's taken over for Bishop during the Packers's first practice. Still, the Packers just reported the injury late on Wednesday and it might not be a big deal.

When I wrote about the linebackers, my only comment about Zombo was that he's going to have to prove he's healthy, and he's been unable to do it. I'm not rooting against him, but I'm not optimistic about his tenure with the Packers either. He's got a lot to prove on the field anyway, and the Packers aren't going to show a lot of patience with him if he's hurt.

The Packers 90-man Roster: Linebackers

The Green Bay Packers are bringing thirteen linebackers into training camp next month, so this has to be one of the biggest areas of competition on the roster based on size alone. Though they could keep as many as ten on the 53-man roster. Overall, this may be the best group of linebackers to play for the Packers since the early 1980s.

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Bishop, Desmond	6-2	238	27	6
Francois, Robert	6-2	255	27	3
Hawk, A.J.	6-1	247	28	7
Jones, Brad	6-3	242	26	4
Lattimore, Jamari	6-2	230	23	2
Manning, Terrell	6-2	237	22	Rookie
Matthews, Clay	6-3	255	26	4
Moses, Dezman	6-2	249	23	Rookie
Perry, Nick	6-3	265	22	Rookie
Smith, D.J.	5-11	239	23	2
So'oto, Vic	6-3	263	24	2
Walden, Erik	6-2	250	26	5
Zombo, Frank	6-3	254	25	3

Unless there's a big shake-up in training camp, it will be Bishop, Hawk, Matthews and Perry starting at linebacker. There should be no doubt about Bishop and Matthews, and while Hawk had a poor 2011 season, the coaches are publicly supporting him and I can't imagine they'd take away his starting job in training camp.

I don't believe the Packers would have drafted Perry in the 1st round if they didn't expect him to be good enough to start immediately. They might limit his snaps if he struggles in some situations, such as obvious rushing downs or on defensive calls when they need a linebacker to drop into pass coverage, but I expect he'll start one way or another.

While the Packers should keep six (or seven, if a linebacker is kept on the practice squad) of the remaining nine players listed, I have no idea who they might be. It all depends on whether they can stay healthy, and how they play this preseason.

Francois has been cut before, so he's not a lock. Jones has been in-and-out of favor for the past three seasons, he's been lining up inside this summer, and he'll need a strong camp to stay. Lattimore looked good last preseason, but he did little when he had a chance to play during the regular season. Smith might be the one sure thing among the backups, but a poor preseason could doom his chances too. So'oto followed an outstanding 2011 preseason with a MIA regular season due to injuries, and he did little when he was able to play. Walden received little interest in free agency, and despite his limitations as a pass rusher and in coverage, he's probably the best outside LB after Matthews and Perry. Zombo had a lost 2011 season due to multiple injuries, and he'll have to prove that he's healthy and productive. Overall, there's a lot of potential with the returning backups, but an awful lot of question marks too.

Finally, Manning and Moses are the other promising new additions. Manning looks like he could be a solid middle linebacker in coverage, and he could be a Brandon Chillar type of player. Moses has been the star of the OTAs, the undrafted player who's already earned some reps with the first team defense. It's very early in their careers, but so far so good.

Overall competition level: high. There are a lot of good players here, and at least one promising player or former starter is going to find himself released before the start of the regular season. The Packers needed to upgrade the position, and they've certainly done it.