$8 Million Guaranteed For Erik Walden?

When the Packers re-signed LB Erik Walden last year, he re-signed near the veteran's minimum and only counted for $537,265 against the salary cap.

On Tues., LB Erik Walden thought $4M of his 4-yr., $16M contract with #Colts was guaranteed. Turns out $8M was guaranteed: $1M SB, $7 bases.
— Bob McGinn (@BobMcGinn) March 14, 2013

And I didn't want him back at any price. That doesn't mean he's completely useless, but he's proven over the past two seasons that he's not good enough to start. LB Dezman Moses should be given the first chance to start if something happens to LB Nick Perry next season. At best, he should be a third-stringer and it would be better to try and find the next Dezman Moses for that roster spot, instead of re-signing Walden.

Still, it's not the worst signing of free agency. There's no reason to guarantee $3 million for QB Drew Stanton in the first place, but the real stinker was telling him that he'll be competing for a starting job.

The Packers Want Jennings Back and The Colts Go Crazy

Depth at the wide receiver position has always been important GM Ted Thompson, and the surprise draft selections of WR Jordy Nelson and WR Randall Cobb in recent years is proof of it. So I'm not surprised that the Packers want to keep WR Greg Jennings, though his return might create a salary cap problem, but I'm a little surprised they didn't decide to use the franchise tag instead. They must be better masters of the cap then I gave them credit for and they probably view current cap room as more important than future space.

Report: Packers offered Jennings $10 million annually nfl.com/news/story/0ap…
— NFL: AroundTheLeague (@NFL_ATL) March 13, 2013

But in a surprise move, the Colts, who have a ton of salary cap room, went a little crazy:

New from JS: Erik Walden leaves Packers for big deal with Colts bit.ly/ZHk3TV #packers
— tom silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 12, 2013

It was reported that Walden received a four-year, $16 million contract. There's only two explanations for this move. First, Walden's best game of the season came against the Colts. Second, this is $16 million in pretend cap money, non-guaranteed dollars at the back end of the contract which Walden will never see. It wasn't reported how much of it was guaranteed and how much Walden should expect to earn in 2013. However, even it turns out he'll only make $1 or $2 million in 2013, they still paid too much. I was hoping the Packers wouldn't bring Walden back at any price.

Packers Free Agency: Who Might Return In 2013?

When the Green Bay Packers have let a player become an unrestricted free agent in recent years, it's a pretty good sign that they don't intend to bring him back. One recent exception was LB Erik Walden, who re-signed last year for near the veteran's minimum, but he might have hurt more than he helped last season.

For those who've asked, here's the list of #Packers unrestricted and restricted free agents: sulia.com/c/green-bay-pa…
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) February 14, 2013

RB Cedric Benson, RB Ryan Grant, WR Greg Jennings, ILB Brad Jones, and OLB Erik Walden are all unrestricted free agents.

TE Tom Crabtree, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, ILB Rob Francois, CB Sam Shields, and OLB Frank Zombo are all restricted free agents. Since the restricted free agent market is for all practical purposes extinct, those players aren't going anywhere. They will sign modest one-year contracts to return, unless the Packers decide they don't want them back at any price. I'd expect them all to return for the start of training camp.

Do you see the Packers re-signing any of their unrestricted free agents?

They might wait until April, but they could re-sign Cedric Benson. They were pretty happy with his style of running before his season ending foot injury, and if he can pass a physical, he might return as the veteran alternative to RB DuJuan Harris or any back they add in the draft.

Jennings will probably be too expensive, despite what these former GMs think, because there are some teams with money to spend. All it takes is one serious suitor for Jennings to become too expensive.

Both Grant and Walden were allowed to leave last year and only played roles with the team because of injuries. I don't think the Packers will bring them back to do the same thing in 2013.

The Packers would probably like Brad Jones to return, but after a year of starting at inside linebacker, he might look for a starting job elsewhere. He might even find some team willing to let him start and pay him a couple million per year over the next few years. That's not a lot of money, but the Packers would only use him as a special teams player and backup linebacker, so a couple million is too much to pay him.

In the end, the Packers probably won't re-sign any unrestricted free agents before March, but they could return later in the month.

2013 Free Agency: The Should Packers Just Avoid It

I'm not predicting, and I haven't read that anyone is predicting, the Green Bay Packers to be players in the 2013 free agent market. That's probably a very good thing because there are teams with a lot of salary cap room and at least some of them seem willing to spend:

Buccaneers Could Once Again Be Active In Free Agency tinyurl.com/amxt7nx
— NFL Trade Rumors (@nfltrade_rumors) February 12, 2013

I'm not entirely confident in the accuracy of this list of the top 2013 free agents, but I wouldn't be want to make any of them one of the highest paid players at their respective positions. Except I think there might be a team or two willing to do it.

As usual, it's probably for the best if GM Ted Thompson stays away from the free agent market. Even the late signings, like re-signing LB Erik Walden last April for $725,000, might have hurt more than it helped because Walden graded out by Pro Football Focus as one of the worst pass rushers in the league. While signing C Jeff Saturday wasn't a success, they made the right decision by deciding C Scott Wells wasn't worth the risk. He was their biggest free agent loss last year but he just underwent another surgery after an injury filled 2012 season.

The brilliant signing of CB Charles Woodson back in 2006 is the free agent exception to the rule. Once every several years, a player like Woodson is available, but in general, if an unrestricted free agent's current team decides he isn't worth the cost, then he probably isn't worth it to the Packers either.

Looking Back At The Packers' Win Over The Vikings

The one note of caution for the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks is believing that they have momentum going forward into next weekend. The Vikings were playing without an NFL quarterback and Deadspin has the GIFs to prove it. The Redskins showed what they can do when QB Robert Griffin III is healthy by scoring two touchdowns on their first two possessions, but he re-injured his knee on that second touchdown drive and then vanished for the rest of the game.

Football Outsiders seemed to be a little down on the Packers after their win because QB Joe Webb is beyond awful as a pocket passer and they coasted after building a 24-3 lead that was insurmountable against any offense led by Joe Webb.

Pro Football Focus was negative on both the teams' offensive lines and especially down on C Evan Dietrich-Smith. I think the Packers are well aware of Dietrich-Smith's limitations, PFF said "he was completely man-handled in the run game", and it's why they signed free agent C Jeff Saturday in the first place. When the Vikings knew that the Packers were going to run out the clock, Dietrich-Smith couldn't get a push at the point of attack. But when there aren't eight men in the box, he's better at moving down field and blocking linebackers, which is why I expect the Packers will stay with him over Saturday again next week.

PFF also noted that LB Erik Walden, while making a few big plays, also got beat a lot of the time. I praised Walden after the game for making big plays, and that's really the best that can be expected from him. He has to make the highlight reel when the opportunity presents itself. If he were able to hold up on every snap, then the Packers wouldn't have drafted LB Nick Perry, wouldn't rotate LB Dezman Moses with Walden, and Walden would have kept his starting job after last season. He's a limited player and the Packers got the best they could have hoped from him against the Vikings.

Packers Defeat Vikings 24-10, Play Next Week at 49ers

After the Green Bay Packers took a 24-3 lead on a touchdown drive to open the second half, they seemed to put it on autopilot. It was understandable because the Vikings did little on offense with QB Joe Webb. But they made their offense hard to watch with five punts on their final five possessions. On defense, a late-game blown coverage left Vikings WR Michael Jenkins wide open for a 50 yard touchdown pass. However, the Vikings never mounted a serious charge and the win was a big relief after a tough loss last week in Minneapolis.

As for why QB Christian Ponder couldn't gut it out with an arm injury, read what Judd Zulgad tweeted.

One player I was glad to see have a big game was FB John Kuhn. He didn't play as well this season, after making the Pro Bowl in 2011, and his fumble last year against the Giants really hurt them. So for him to come out and score two touchdowns was a big bounce-back performance.

The offense was outstanding, QB Aaron Rodgers in particular, until their second half swoon converted only one first down in their final five possessions. Part of the reason was their run-heavy play calling, as they apparently tried to run some clock after going up by 21 points. The offensive line had some shaky moments, but they also gave Rodgers a lot of time to throw and he made plays when they did.

The defense did a much better job of bottling up RB Adrian Peterson with DT B.J. Raji's stout inside presence and LB Erik Walden's monster game on the outside. Webb's accuracy was so bad in his first playing time of the season that it's hard to give the secondary too much credit, but they played well except for the blown coverage on Jenkins' touchdown. Overall. it was good practice for next week when they face a run heavy 49ers team with their own mobile quarterback.

Some Strange Snap Counts Against The Giants

Luckily for everyone involved, I'm not going to say much about DJ World Peace other than to point out that players often rehab away from their team's facility. LB Ray Lewis is another example of a player who isn't rehabbing at his team's facility, though I've seen him on the sidelines during Ravens' games. While it's a P.R. headache to see the team's second leading rusher booking shows at gentlemen's clubs, it probably has no impact on his recovery.

As for some actual Packer news, Wes Hodkiewicz has some interesting snap counts from their game against the Giants:

#Packers rookie LB Dezman Moses played all 65 defensive snaps versus the Giants. Erik Walden (34) and Frank Zombo (31) split other OLB snaps
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) November 26, 2012

It's no surprise to see that Moses played every snap since he was about the only defensive player who stood out in a positive way. But Walden had a good game against the Lions so I'm surprised that Zombo's snaps came entirely at Walden's expense. However, both Walden and Zombo were unable to get to the quarterback or shed blocks against the run, so it didn't matter which one of them was on the field against the Giants.

Casey Hayward only saw 21 defensive plays in the game. Offensively, James Jones went 56 plays without a reception. Driver with only 7 snaps
— Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) November 26, 2012

Unless the coaches are concerned that Hayward is hitting the rookie wall, I don't see why they limited his snaps. Having an extra safety at Hayward's expense wasn't any help. It's even worse than that for Jones: he wasn't targeted on a single pass attempt. I'm surprised they didn't make any effort to get him involved in the offense.

Having said all that, none of these trends may continue into their next game. The Packers seem to change their player rotations every week. It wouldn't have made a difference in the results, but limiting the impact Hayward and Jones couldn't have helped.

Recap: Packers Win In Detroit, 24-20

With the absence of LB Clay Matthews (and the ongoing absence of CB Charles Woodson) I was pessimistic about the Green Bay Packers' chances of defeating the Lions. Sure, the Lions have a lot of injury problems of their own, but the Packers usually lose games when Matthews is hurt. I expected an offensive shootout, but instead the defense led the way for both teams. It might have been an ugly win, but I'll take a win on the road any week, anyway they can get it.

So the answer to the question of where the Packers would find a pass rush without Matthews: they'd find it everywhere. A lot more blitzing by defensive backs (CB Davon House and S Morgan Burnett each recorded a sack) but also pursuit from LB Erik Walden and LB Dezman Moses. While they recorded the sacks (and Moses forced a fumble), it was the interior push by the tackles that usually forced the action. Rookie DT Mike Daniels was a factor, but all the big guys deserve credit: QB Matthew Stafford rarely had a pocket to step up into. And when they did get a pass off, the young defensive backs made plays, led by a huge game from CB Casey Hayward (5 pass defenses, 1 INT) and the INT returned for a touchdown by S M.D. Jennings. RB Mikel Leshoure had some success on the ground, but the Packers were letting the chance by rarely playing with more than two defensive linemen. Even with some running room available, the Lions preferred to throw the ball, calling 46 pass plays to only 22 carries.

My biggest complaint with the offense was the featured role for RB James Starks. With a make-shift offensive line, I'm sure Mike McCarthy wanted to keep the pressure down on QB Aaron Rodgers with a conservative game plan, but the result was a stalled offense. Starks had 26 touches while WR Jordy Nelson, WR James Jones, and WR Randall Cobb combined for only 23 carries and targets. While the Lions defense didn't have a huge statistical day, DT Nick Fairley was huge with 2 sacks and 2 tackles for a loss, and he probably disrupted at least a couple other plays. The overall conservative strategy was sound and they might not have had anymore success with a pass heavy attack, but a few more pass plays might have gotten the offense going, and Nelson, Jones and Cobb should combine for more plays than Starks.

Poor K Mason Crosby. I've been on his case all season, and he came close to hitting bottom in this game with two recorded misses (plus the other one he missed while he was being iced by the Lions). The coaches probably have more confidence in Crosby than any street free agent they could bring in at this point, so releasing him seems like an extreme reaction. His job security might be better addressed in the offseason. Instead, they should focus on restoring his confidence in the interim. Kicking is a pretty inconsistent business, and Crosby's gone through more good streaks than bad. The odds are more likely that he'll kick himself out of his slump instead of falling down further.

Dezman Moses and Frank Zombo Will Replace Clay Matthews Against The Lions

#Packers OLB coach Kevin Greene said of Zombo: "My plans is to get him and Moses in a nice little rotation."
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) November 16, 2012

The absence of LB Clay Matthews has been my biggest concern for the Green Bay Packers' defense over the past three seasons, and hopefully the game against the Lions on Sunday will be the only time we see it this season. There's no replacing him and the defense will take some lumps without him.

I'm not surprised to see LB Dezman Moses will start in Matthews' place, but I wasn't expecting LB Frank Zombo to return because he hasn't played at all this season. I don't expect Zombo to make a big impact, but Moses and LB Erik Walden seem to play better when they have to play fewer snaps. At least he can help them stay fresh.

Nick Perry Is Probably Lost For The Season

The Green Bay Packers have been getting a lot of bad injury news lately, and some more was dropped on election night.

We interrupt this election to bring you breaking @packers news. LB Nick Perry had surgery on wrist today. He's expected to go on IR #Packers
— Lance Allan (@lanceallan) November 7, 2012

On one hand this isn't such a big deal since Perry has only recorded two sacks and two QB hits. On the other hand, it'll turn 2012 into a lost season for their 1st round pick who might have given the team it's best chance of weathering the storm while LB Clay Matthews is out with a hamstring injury.

Supposedly Matthews's hamstring injury isn't as bad as it was in 2010 and the Packers probably have a good idea on how to manage the injury since it's been a problem in the past. But when he does return to the field, he might not be the same player. Back in 2010, he played through the month of November with an injured hamstring and, unsurprisingly, he wasn't himself. One game that comes to mind was the win over the 49ers, when he lined up against then struggling rookie RT Anthony Davis and only recorded one QB hit (no sacks). Before his 2010 hamstring injury, Matthews was dismantling poor offensive tackles like Davis. Once he returns this season, he might not be much of a factor if he's not completely healthy.

No defensive lineman has made much of an impact this season, though DE Mike Neal did beat LG Daryn Colledge last week for a sack, so it'll fall on the linebackers to make a difference in the pass rush. That might come from inside if defensive coordinator Dom Capers dials up more inside blitzes from LB A.J. Hawk and LB Brad Jones, but primarily it's got to come from the outside.

They only offered him a minimal one year deal in free agency, and drafted Perry to replace him, but LB Erik Walden has remained and their No. 2 pass rusher with 11 QB hits on the season. Walden is as inconsistent as ever, he had a great game against the Cardinals but did nothing against the Jaguars the week before, and he'll certainly struggle if Matthews isn't around to occupy additional blockers. He'll be asked to do more, and I'm not sure he's up to the challenge, if Matthews is out.

LB Dezman Moses has gotten rave reviews all year, but he hasn't made a big impact on defense this season. In 115 defensive snaps so far this season, he's recorded 1 sack and 2 QB hits. There's an argument to be made that he just needs more of an opportunity, and it looks like he'll be getting a chance to prove it.

LB Frank Zombo has just returned from the PUP list and he was inactive last week against the Cardinals, so I'm not expecting anything from him until he proves he can step back onto the field. Even then, since he's played so little over the last two seasons, it's hard to believe he'll be an effective player immediately.

If You Allow A Touchdown To Randy Moss, You Find A Seat On The Bench

At first, it was hard to tell which defensive player was supposed to be covering a wide open Randy Moss when he caught a touchdown last Sunday. S Morgan Burnett was the closest player, but he was jumping up-and-down angry and he seemed to be mad at someone else. LB D.J. Smith didn't drop back in coverage, but that might not have been his responsibility. Finally, S M.D. Jennings came into the screen right after the catch, and I did notice that rookie S Jerron McMillian played during the second half. Jennings has now confirmed it:

Packers S M.D. Jennings on getting pulled in favor of Jerron McMillian: "I blew my opportunity, so they put 'J' in and gave him his chance."
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) September 11, 2012

I've never been very impressed with M.D. Jennings, but he had never before seemed like an obvious liability. A blown coverage is the type of play that keeps a young defender glued to the bench. Back in 2009, the Packers released one safety, and benched another, after Aaron Rouse (Bengals in week 2) and Derrick Martin (Vikings in week 8) botched assignments in the secondary.

I don't think McMillian is ready, and neither do the coaches if he was a reserve to start the season, but I do like his potential. Maybe the solution is to let Charles Woodson spend more time at safety, but it's not like the situation at cornerback is really solid either. Bears QB Jay Cutler has noticed the Packers' problem.

On a somewhat related note, the Packers have one less player in the defensive backfield with the release of CB Brandian Ross because they needed a roster spot for LB Erik Walden. Ross was a surprising addition to the 53-man roster, and with 11 defensive backs on the roster, I thought one of them would have to go to make room for Walden, once he was reinstated.

I expect the Packers will use Walden on special teams, and maybe even a few plays on defense. He will be good in that role; he's just not an every down starter. I wouldn't be surprised to see M.D. Jennings left inactive so that Walden can play on Thursday night.

The Packers 90-man Roster: Linebackers

The Green Bay Packers are bringing thirteen linebackers into training camp next month, so this has to be one of the biggest areas of competition on the roster based on size alone. Though they could keep as many as ten on the 53-man roster. Overall, this may be the best group of linebackers to play for the Packers since the early 1980s.

Player	Height	Weight	Age	Experience
Bishop, Desmond	6-2	238	27	6
Francois, Robert	6-2	255	27	3
Hawk, A.J.	6-1	247	28	7
Jones, Brad	6-3	242	26	4
Lattimore, Jamari	6-2	230	23	2
Manning, Terrell	6-2	237	22	Rookie
Matthews, Clay	6-3	255	26	4
Moses, Dezman	6-2	249	23	Rookie
Perry, Nick	6-3	265	22	Rookie
Smith, D.J.	5-11	239	23	2
So'oto, Vic	6-3	263	24	2
Walden, Erik	6-2	250	26	5
Zombo, Frank	6-3	254	25	3

Unless there's a big shake-up in training camp, it will be Bishop, Hawk, Matthews and Perry starting at linebacker. There should be no doubt about Bishop and Matthews, and while Hawk had a poor 2011 season, the coaches are publicly supporting him and I can't imagine they'd take away his starting job in training camp.

I don't believe the Packers would have drafted Perry in the 1st round if they didn't expect him to be good enough to start immediately. They might limit his snaps if he struggles in some situations, such as obvious rushing downs or on defensive calls when they need a linebacker to drop into pass coverage, but I expect he'll start one way or another.

While the Packers should keep six (or seven, if a linebacker is kept on the practice squad) of the remaining nine players listed, I have no idea who they might be. It all depends on whether they can stay healthy, and how they play this preseason.

Francois has been cut before, so he's not a lock. Jones has been in-and-out of favor for the past three seasons, he's been lining up inside this summer, and he'll need a strong camp to stay. Lattimore looked good last preseason, but he did little when he had a chance to play during the regular season. Smith might be the one sure thing among the backups, but a poor preseason could doom his chances too. So'oto followed an outstanding 2011 preseason with a MIA regular season due to injuries, and he did little when he was able to play. Walden received little interest in free agency, and despite his limitations as a pass rusher and in coverage, he's probably the best outside LB after Matthews and Perry. Zombo had a lost 2011 season due to multiple injuries, and he'll have to prove that he's healthy and productive. Overall, there's a lot of potential with the returning backups, but an awful lot of question marks too.

Finally, Manning and Moses are the other promising new additions. Manning looks like he could be a solid middle linebacker in coverage, and he could be a Brandon Chillar type of player. Moses has been the star of the OTAs, the undrafted player who's already earned some reps with the first team defense. It's very early in their careers, but so far so good.

Overall competition level: high. There are a lot of good players here, and at least one promising player or former starter is going to find himself released before the start of the regular season. The Packers needed to upgrade the position, and they've certainly done it.