GM Ted Thompson Is Looking Cheap But Will It Come Back To Haunt Him?

The final contract numbers are out for WR Greg Jennings and TE Tom Crabtree. The Green Bay Packers wanted both players back, but they didn't quite offer enough. From Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel:

Sources familiar with negotiations said Jennings had an offer averaging about $8 million from the Packers before he took a five-year contract from the Minnesota Vikings that averaged about $9 million. He received a $10 million signing bonus and guarantees worth $18 million.

At roughly the same time, Crabtree accepted a two-year, $1.6 million deal from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when the Packers wouldn't budge off their one-year offer worth about $700,000.

So if the Packers had agreed to pay $9 instead of $8 million to Jennings, and $800,000 instead of $700,000 to Crabtree, they could have had both players back?

The offers to both players were probably not arbitrary. The Packers certainly know where they want to be in regards to the salary cap, and they're probably thinking about extensions that will come up over the next couple years. So good for them; they've maintained discipline in the face of two budget busting extensions.

Or did they just not realize the market for their players? Why not come up in price for two guys you wanted back and underbid for? Here's a GM Ted Thompson quote via Kevin Seifert:

"Free agency is a difficult thing to predict. It didn't work out."

I think the team will be just fine next season without both players. Jennings is aging and the Vikings are taking some risk by giving him a big contract at this point in his career. Crabtree is great to the fans, but he's just another guy. TE Ryan Taylor is probably as good as Crabtree and he's already on the roster.

But it's troubling that GM Ted Thompson has seemed to have blown it in free agency. He wanted Jennings and Crabtree back and he put competitive offers on the table, but misjudged the market and lost them both.

When the Packers let players like DE Aaron Kampman, DE Cullen Jenkins, and LG Daryn Colledge, that seemed to be an internal decision. Kampman was coming off a major injury. Jenkins and Colledge were going to be overpaid, as far as they were concerned. They didn't make a big effort to re-sign them. Since then, they've tried to re-sign C Scott Wells last year and underbid. Now they've done the same with Jennings and Crabtree. Maybe it's for the best; Wells's first year with the Rams was plagued with injuries. Maybe Plan B will work out fine, though C Jeff Saturday wasn't a success last season. They seem to know what to do, but can't get it done, and that's left me concerned going forward.

Who Will The Packers Sign Among Their Restricted Free Agents?

Because the Green Bay Packers' collection of restricted free agents consist entirely of players who were undrafted, the team has some tough choices to make.

My ranking of #Packers' 5 restricted free agents: 1-Dietrich-Smith. 2-Shields. 3-Crabtree. 4-Zombo. 5-Francois. pck.rs/XghbMY
— Mike Vandermause (@MikeVandermause) February 18, 2013

The first question is how much does it cost to tender a contract to a restricted free agent? The levels don't appear to be publicly known, but last season they ranged from $2.742 million to $1.26 million. A tender at the lowest level is tied to the player's original draft selection, but since the Packers didn't draft these five players, the lowest tender will be essentially worthless. The Packers will have to offer the higher amounts to give themselves draft pick compensation protection and that might not work with their salary cap.

The good news is that teams seem to have no interest in signing restricted free agents, especially ones that would require them surrendering their first or second round pick.

C Evan Dietrich-Smith. Would any team offer him a contract to become their starting center? I don't think so, but the Packers probably know better than me. His salary was $619,650 in 2012, so a first (approx. $3 miliion) or second-round tender (approx. $2 million) would be a huge increase. I don't think the Packers want to pay $2 to $3 million for a backup lineman. Mike Vandermause thinks the Packers will offer a first or second-round tender because there's no other candidate on the roster who could start at center. If he does receive a higher tender, it would likely mean he'll be the starter next season and the Packers will look for their center of the future in the later rounds.

CB Sam Shields. It's a no-brainer that he'll receive a first or second-round tender since he's their starting cornerback. Either way, he'll receive a significant raise from $547,540 in 2012 to $2 to $3 million next season. But should it be a first-round or a second-round offer? A second-round tender should be enough to scare off every team. The only downside is that Shields might feel slighted by receiving a second-round tender (and approx. $1 million less).

TE Tom Crabtree. Yes, he's a fan-favorite, but I can't see any reason why he should be tendered a contract. He's obviously liked by the coaches because he's played ahead of TE D.J. Williams and TE Ryan Taylor for the past two seasons, but he probably doesn't want to leave Green Bay and would be happy with a reasonable multi-year deal. Another team or two might show some interest, but I can't see anyone giving him big money.

LB Frank Zombo and LB Robert Francois. I can't see either of them receiving a tender offer. Zombo's struggled too much with injuries and Francois is buried too deep on the bench. Plus, the Packers do have to open up some roster spots for the 2013 draft class.

Packers Free Agency: Who Might Return In 2013?

When the Green Bay Packers have let a player become an unrestricted free agent in recent years, it's a pretty good sign that they don't intend to bring him back. One recent exception was LB Erik Walden, who re-signed last year for near the veteran's minimum, but he might have hurt more than he helped last season.

For those who've asked, here's the list of #Packers unrestricted and restricted free agents: sulia.com/c/green-bay-pa…
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) February 14, 2013

RB Cedric Benson, RB Ryan Grant, WR Greg Jennings, ILB Brad Jones, and OLB Erik Walden are all unrestricted free agents.

TE Tom Crabtree, C Evan Dietrich-Smith, ILB Rob Francois, CB Sam Shields, and OLB Frank Zombo are all restricted free agents. Since the restricted free agent market is for all practical purposes extinct, those players aren't going anywhere. They will sign modest one-year contracts to return, unless the Packers decide they don't want them back at any price. I'd expect them all to return for the start of training camp.

Do you see the Packers re-signing any of their unrestricted free agents?

They might wait until April, but they could re-sign Cedric Benson. They were pretty happy with his style of running before his season ending foot injury, and if he can pass a physical, he might return as the veteran alternative to RB DuJuan Harris or any back they add in the draft.

Jennings will probably be too expensive, despite what these former GMs think, because there are some teams with money to spend. All it takes is one serious suitor for Jennings to become too expensive.

Both Grant and Walden were allowed to leave last year and only played roles with the team because of injuries. I don't think the Packers will bring them back to do the same thing in 2013.

The Packers would probably like Brad Jones to return, but after a year of starting at inside linebacker, he might look for a starting job elsewhere. He might even find some team willing to let him start and pay him a couple million per year over the next few years. That's not a lot of money, but the Packers would only use him as a special teams player and backup linebacker, so a couple million is too much to pay him.

In the end, the Packers probably won't re-sign any unrestricted free agents before March, but they could return later in the month.

Recap: Packers Upset The Texans in Houston, 42-24

I didn't see that win coming. The Green Bay Packers win over the Texans was a return to form for the 2010 championship team. QB Aaron Rodgers had his most accurate game of the season and his receivers were making some difficult catches (though there were still a few dropped passes). The big trouble spot I've been harping on all season is the offensive line, and they arguably had their best performance of the season. DE J.J. Watt added to his spectacular season with 2 sacks and 3 QB pressures, but his teammates provided little support. When other Texan defenders, such as LB Brooks Reed or LB Connor Barwin, did apply some pressure, Rodgers showed off his ability to escape or throw under pressure (such as the long TD pass to TE Tom Crabtree).

The defense did an amazing job of shutting down the Texans running game (ranked No. 7 by Football Outsiders coming into the game) and the only impact made by RB Arian Foster was on two short-yardage touchdown runs. But the bigger story was shutdown performance on QB Matt Schaub, who was ranked as the No. 5 QB (ahead of Rodgers) by Football Outsiders. Sure he would have been helped if the running game had been better, but that's not the entire story of why the Packers him shut down (and intercepted him twice). With the exception of a blown coverage on TE Owen Daniels for a 27 yard gain, the defensive backs played well and the Packers put good pressure on Schaub. While LB Clay Matthews failed to record a sack (and Watt moved ahead of him to lead the league in that category), he was still a menace, recording 3 QB hits and single-handedly disrupting the Texans' offense in the first quarter.

This game reminded me a lot of the Packers playoff win against the Falcons in early 2011. The Packers were on the road, underdogs, against the highest seeded team in the conference, and they whipped them on both sides of the ball.

A blemish on an impressive win was the high cost of injuries. Defensive starters LB Nick Perry, LB D.J. Smith and CB Sam Shields were all hurt, along with special teamer RB Brandon Saine, and they made early trips to the locker room. All of the injuries looked serious, but we'll have to wait a of couple days to find out. The good news is that the Packers do have depth to overcome it (more playing time for rookie LB Dezman Moses; CB Davon House and LB Terrell Manning might both get a chance after being left inactive against the Texans) but it's not something we want to see.

But I would like to see the Packers put together a couple strong games in a row before saying they've turned a corner. This win against a previously unbeaten team was a huge step forward, however, next week looks like a trap game in St. Louis against the 3-3 Rams (who are 3-0 at home). The Packers have to come right back and win another tough road game, otherwise their win against the Texans is just another peak in what's turned out to be an up-and-down season.

In Defense of Graham Harrell

Hey, it could be worse.

Ground Emerges As Tim Tebow's Favorite Target onion.com/SueCB3
— Onion Sports Network (@OnionSports) August 17, 2012

Seriously, after re-watching the preseason game against the Browns, I'm going to stick up for Graham Harrell. I'd rather have him as the backup over Colt McCoy or Tarvaris Jackson. Harrell made some poor throws and he'd be an average replacement starter, at best, but he was let down by his teammates on his turnovers:

The second quarter INT that was returned for a touchdown, overturned by a penalty. Maybe the pass was a little off target, but it still hit TE Tom Crabtree in the hands, who tipped it up in the air for a gift INT to a nearby Browns defender.

The end of the second quarter Hail Mary. It wasn't the best attempt, but that's a pass you expect to be intercepted. When Football Outsiders ranks quarterbacks, it removes Hail Mary INTs from their definition of a turnover because it really isn't one.

The third quarter INT that was returned for a touchdown. I had been hoping to see some good things from TE Ryan Taylor this preseason, but he was held out against the Chargers due to a previous concussion. He returned against the Browns, but he tripped over his own feet on a crossing route and the Browns defender made a diving INT at the spot where Taylor should have been standing. If Taylor doesn't fall on his face, there's no chance that this pass is intercepted.

The fourth quarter intentional grounding in the end zone for a safety. It's been a mixed bag among the backups on the offensive line. Rookie Andrew Datko did a fine job in pass protection and the players at guard looked good, but on this play, the Browns' DE ran a stunt over center that neither the left guard nor center Evan Dietrich-Smith picked up, and the defender ran untouched right up the middle. That looked like Dietrich-Smith's responsibility, and Harrell had no chance.

On three bad plays (excluding the Hail Mary pass), Harrell was let down when a teammate made a bad play. His stats wouldn't have been great even if his teammates had helped him out, but it wouldn't have been a disaster either.

As a final note, if there was ever a competition between Harrell and rookie B.J. Coleman, it ended when Coleman's only attempt against the Browns was a pass he should have never thrown against even a college subdivision team. It looked like the receiver ran a different route, probably in response to the double-team he was facing, and Coleman failed to read the defense. The silver lining is that Coleman should have no problem passing through waivers, and they can stash him on the practice squad. The new question is whether they should keep Coleman under any circumstances.

As a final, final note, I liked what I saw from Datko against the Browns. He's a natural left tackle who's got great size and seems to move his feet well, but he was beaten against the Chargers when bull-rushed and he got no push when asked to run block against the Browns. If you're wondering why the Packers haven't ran the ball well this preseason, it's because their two tackles (Datko and Herb Taylor) can't get any push off the line. It looks like the shoulder Datko injured in college is still holding him back, and he might not be anything more than an emergency option until it's fully healed, but he could be very good by next season.