With all the franchise tags being placed now and the restricted free agent tenders due by March 1, the free agent season is almost upon us. The Packers have a few free agents and a couple important ones. With $28 million in cap room to work with there is enough room to resign everyone and still pursue others, if desired. Resigning DT Cullen Jenkins is important, but putting a 1st or 2nd round tender would probably persuade teams to look elsewhere. It would be a reasonable contract, between $1.3 and $1.85 million, and other teams could probably draft a player similar to him in the 1st or 2nd round anyway and hopefully lose interest. It would be surprising if any of the exclusive rights free agents weren't resigned. Resigning TE Donald Lee was a nice minimum wage signing, although Lee vanished in 2006 after a promising 2005 season.

Of the remaining unrestricted free agents, the only two that should be resigned, but not at any price, are RB Ahman Green and TE David Martin.

Green had a strong 2006 season, but his 4.0 yards/carry is a half-yard under his 2004 and career averages. Both RBs Noah Herron and Vernand Morency had a better average yards/carry than Green in 2006. Also, Green is only a season removed from major knee surgery and is about to turn 30. ESPN's Mel Kiper had his mock draft predictions scrolling at the bottom of ESPN and has the Packers selecting RB Marshawn Lynch, which is a possibility. With Green's strong return in 2006 and the weaker group of free agent running backs this offseason compared to last season's bonanza with RBs Edgerrin James and Shawn Alexander leading the way, it wouldn't be surprising to see some team overpay for Green. Green crossed the 400 carry mark during his outstanding 2003 season (including playoffs) and has never been as good since. Last season he resigned for a modest one year deal, but that won't happen this year. The Packers should let another team pay a premium price for his last few seasons.

If only Martin could stay healthy, then resigning him would be a priority. His 2006 stats look modest, but the offense played its best during the middle of the season when Martin was healthy and starting. They won 3 of 4 games in late October and early November by scoring 34 points at Miami and 31 against Arizona, with a TD pass to Martin in both games. They only scored 10 points at Buffalo, but turnovers ruined an otherwise great offensive day. Then Martin played his last healthy game in the win at Minnesota (against a great Minnesota defense) with 23 points scored. In the last seven games, the offense scored over 20 points (24 points at Seattle, but one TD scored by LB Abdul Hodge) in only two of them. They need Martin or another quality receiving TE like him. His past injury problems should keep contract offers modest so resigning him could be reasonable. Any free agent TE to replace him would have risks (such as Seattle's inconsistent TE Jerramy Stevens), so they should resign Martin but draft a TE to replace him in 2008 if he remains injury prone.

The last several months have been pretty bad down in Miami. First QB Daunte Culpepper comes back too early from his injury and might never be the same player he was back in 2004. Then the future of the team seems to be in the hands of QB Joey Harrington. Then Nick Saban stabs them in the back and takes the head coaching job in Alabama.

Now they've started off the free agency season with a laugh by giving former Packer DT Vonnie Holliday a fat $7 million signing bonus. Looking at his career stats, he has played well for them the last two seasons. But stats are a bit misleading for Holliday. He pads them with big games and then vanishes for the rest of the season.

Holliday's big rookie season in 1998 with 8 sacks in 12 games came because he was playing opposite DE Reggie White when White was named NFL Defensive Player of the Year and then he took a step back in 1999 without White in the lineup anymore. He had 6 sacks in 10 games during his final season with the Packers in 2002, but 3 or 4 of those sacks came in a single game. After he signed a big free agent contract with Kansas City his tackle total collapsed although he had a respectable looking 5.5 sacks until you learn that he had 3 sacks in the first half of the first game of the season. His 2004 stats were dismal until Kansas City released him mid-season. The Packers played Miami last season and I only remember noticing him a couple of times. It seemed like he was only a part time starter. Just an awful signing.

QB Brett Favre will have surgery in the next few weeks. How specific. The only thing interesting about this story is that Favre said he would have the surgery right after the season but it has been rescheduled or delayed until at least March. It shouldn't be a problem, but hopefully Favre doesn't have to wait too much longer.

ESPN says the Packers defense is all beefed up because they signed some future candidates for the practice squad. The only interesting name is Marcus Randall because he is now a linebacker but used to play QB at LSU.

Unfortunately the Packers signed WR Koren Robinson last season because now his updated legal status is reported on Packer news sites. However, if Robinson is sober and in shape then he could help in 2007. The good news for Robinson is that he will only serve 90 days and he should be available by training camp. GM Ted Thompson signed him last season when he knew Robinson had these legal troubles coming so there should be no reason he doesn't keep him now.

There will be some draft news and mock draft chart adjusting in the coming week because the NFL Combine begins on Thursday. Last season DE Mario Williams and TE Vernon Davis shot into the top 10 after the combine. The big problem with the combine is that although some hidden gems can be found, good players like Williams and Davis suddenly become overrated and some players like WR Marques Colston unnecessarily fall. Colston was a small college player who had a serious case of the drops during the combine and promptly fell into the 7th round. Even after only one season Colston is already one of the greatest 7th round bargains ever. Hanging around players for a day or two in perfect dome conditions is only part of the answer. NFL Network has complete coverage if anyone can manage to sit through all the repetitive non-responsive interviews from NFL GMs.

Chicago's defensive coordinator Ron Rivera interviews for the head coaching job in San Diego then goes back to Chicago to learn his contract will not be renewed and he ends up in San Diego as their linebackers coach. Wow. What a major turn of events. It is mostly good news in San Diego when after losing their coordinators and then firing their head coach, they end up with an experienced and well respected coaching staff. The bad news in San Diego is that Norv Turner has never impressed as a head coach and Minnesota's defense improved from 19th overall under Ted Cottrell in 2005 to 4th overall in 2006 without him.

What does Rivera's departure mean for Chicago? Unfortunately for the Packers it doesn't mean too much in 2007 because it is Lovie Smith defense it is unlikely to change. Here is Windy City Gridiron's take on the move. Why did they let Rivera leave? If Rivera gets a big fat new contract as defensive coordinator, then it is possible that Chicago is on the hook for his contract when/if they let Lovie Smith. If Smith is staying long term, then this isn't a problem. Is Smith not staying because he allegedly can't get a new contract extension? Did Smith have a problem with Rivera? Clash of ego and money are not something new in Chicago. George Halas's son Michael McCaskey ran the football and business operations from 1985 until 1999 when his mother "kicked him upstairs". From 1985 until Jerry Angelo was named GM in 2001 (although Mark Hatley was defacto GM during the late 1990s) the McCaskey family didn't feel they needed anyone else. The McCaskey family has been on the right track since 1999 when they hired CEO Ted Phillips who got the new stadium built and hired Mark Hatley. Hatley made some famous bust moves like drafting QB Cade McNown, but he also built the 2001 13-3 Chicago team and drafted LB Brian Urlacher. It has taken Chicago eight years to get where they are but only one offseason of bad front office moves to tear it all down. Is Chicago uninterested in paying any of their front office staff or coaches top dollar? Smith's departure would be a huge loss for Chicago and maybe Rivera's departure is a sign that it could happen.

There will be a million pointless mock drafts posted online between now and mid-April. All of them will be pointless and a waste of time. I know I shouldn't pay any attention to them, but just like staring at car accidents and reading tabloids at the supermarket, I just can't help myself. I ripped a Yahoo! mock draft for being ridiculous, but ProFootballTalk's Mock Draft 1.0 is much more realistic. ProFootballTalk says the Packers will take N.C. State's DT DeMarcus Tyler. That is possible and a good need area to fill despite the progress shown by DTs Cullen Jenkins and Corey Williams late in the season, but it is unlikely GM Ted Thompson would let California's RB Marshawn Lynch slip past them. Even if the Packers resign RB Ahman Green and keep RB Vernand Morency, Green is almost past 30 and Morency had some problems with fumbles and staying healthy. Lynch might not be needed for 2007, but he could be the heart of the offense by 2008.

One thing that surprised me in both mock drafts was the high rankings given to Michigan's DT Alan Branch and Arkansas' DE Jamaal Anderson. I watched most of the games played by the Wisconsin Badgers last season. They were a great overall team and they had a great offensive line. Not all of their linemen are going to play in the NFL, but they all have NFL size and are well coached. The Wisconsin offensive line was outplayed only twice last season; at Michigan and in the Capital One Bowl against Arkansas. Wisconsin managed just enough offense to win their bowl game, but it wasn't created by the offensive line. Anderson and his teammates dominated the Badgers O-line. LT Joe Thomas played well, but he was the exception. The only reservation with Anderson, and maybe with Branch too, is that they appear to be great players but they are definitely playing alongside some good-to-great players too. Are they really that good or are their teammates helping them look that good?

ProFootballTalk was speculating (no permalink for the February 11th post) that the Packers will make a serious push to sign unrestricted free agent LB Adalius Thomas. Thomas is a great player. Michael David Smith at Football Outsiders wrote this about Thomas: "Thomas is like a chameleon. Lines him up on the line of scrimmage and he attacks the quarterback like a defensive end. Line him up as much 10 yards off the line and he covers wide receivers like a safety. He’s very tough against the run but quick enough to keep up if he’s called on to defend downfield passes. He’s also the gunner on the Ravens’ punt team. Sometimes it just seems unfair for a 270-pounder to move like Thomas does." Adding Thomas alongside LBs Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk might give the Packers the best starting group of linebackers in the NFL, but at 270 lbs., ProFootballTalk heard that the Packers would play Thomas at defensive end. It is always good news to hear the Packers want to pursue a great player, but there are a couple of problems. First the Packers would tie up a huge amount of cap room on defensive ends. DE KGB took up 5% of last season's cap and the team would take an almost $5 million cap hit if he is released. Then if Thomas plays at linebacker, he would block the improving LB Brady Poppinga and probably turn promising LB Abdul Hodge into a permanent second stringer. What is the point of drafting a linebacker in the 3rd round if he never has a chance to start? As great as Thomas is, the Packers would be better using cap room and money to resign current players like Barnett and target positions that could really use the help like safety, wide receiver, and tight end.

In honor of Valentine's Day it is sweet to read that the NFL power couple of Aaron James Hawk and Laura Quinn (sister of QB Brady Quinn) is planning a March 17th wedding despite the fact that they are already married. Unfortunately there is nothing too juicy about being formally married right after graduation for health and education benefits, and then waiting until the NFL season is over to throw a big celebration. Hopefully a good (and safe) time will be had by all in attendance.

Shocking but true, the Packers didn't give CB Al Harris any guaranteed money to sign a contract extension. It will be a 50% raise for him over the next three years, but he will still only be making $12 million over that time. The extension would be crazy for Harris to sign if he was an unrestricted free agent, but since he is under contract for the next three seasons, he doesn't have much leverage to negotiate. Still his extension is an NFL bargain for a (should be) Pro Bowl cornerback. Just ask Minnesota, who gave CB Fred Smoot $10 million to sign in 2005 but will now kick him to the street after two mediocre seasons later.

In 2005, CB Al Harris played outstanding for most of the season until he faded in the last few games. He held out of some minicamp activities last spring trying force the Packers to give him a new contract. At first he appeared slighted that new CB Charles Woodson was being paid so much more than then him, but it was then rumored that he was upset that DE Aaron Kampman received such a huge contract. Harris didn't look too sharp the first few games of the season, but he was outstanding afterwards. It is not a good idea to give a cornerback big money after he turns 30 years old, but Harris has been great the last two seasons. At age 32 he doesn't appear to be slowing down and he has never been a burner. He might still be a solid starting cornerback even if he loses a step. The unofficial salary cap says Harris made $2.5 million last season after he initially received a $4.375 million signing bonus back in late 2004 when he signed his current contract. Harris's current contract has been a steal for the Packers. Mediocre cornerbacks routinely receive $10+ million signing bonuses today. But it is unclear if the roster bonuses are guaranteed. If Harris is hurt and his released anytime during the next three seasons, then the guaranteed roster bonuses would be a huge salary cap hit. Usually roster bonuses are not guaranteed, but Harris would have wanted guaranteed money to sign an extension. Maybe some more news will be available about it later this week. The good news is that Harris got his new contract and won't be any distraction next season.

(AP Photo/Ronen Zilberman)

It usually isn't an exciting game to watch, but I am bummed that I missed watching the Pro Bowl. After not having any players in last year's game, the Packers had WR Donald Driver and DE Aaron Kampman. From the box score, it appears that both players played a bit since Driver had three catches and Kampman four tackles. I think the most annoying part of the Pro Bowl is that it feels like it is always interviewing someone on the side lines and there is nothing more annoying than side line reporters.

It is good to read that the Packers and LB Nick Barnett are on good terms regarding a contract extension. It is reasonable that both sides will wait and see what LB Lance Briggs receives this offseason in free agency. Off the top of my head, it would seem that Barnett should receive about $15 million in guaranteed money, which is what DE Aaron Kampman received last year. The market has been clearly set for linebackers in their mid-20s. It seemed like LB E.J. Henderson received too much when Minnesota gave him $10 million in guaranteed money last month, but then Jacksonville gave LB Daryl Smith $10 million too. Neither Henderson or Smith have stats as good as Barnett over the last three seasons so he should be paid more than both of them. However, Barnett still isn't as good as Briggs who is exceptional in pass coverage. Football Outsiders reported that Chicago used Briggs basically as the nickel back last season. Briggs could easily receive $20 million in guaranteed money so then the $15 million I projected sounds about right for Barnett.

Wade Phillips has failed twice before as a head coach, but Dallas feels he is the best man for the job. Phillips is a good coach and he prefers to use a 3-4 defense, the scheme already in place in Dallas, which was probably why he was chosen over someone like Chicago defensive coordinator Ron Rivera who uses a 4-3 defense and cover-2 defensive system. Unfortunately Phillips is known for coaching good regular season teams that fail in the playoffs, exhibited by 14-2 San Diego's 1st round playoff loss this season. Plus at age 59, he fails Bill Simmons's Speed Limit Coaching Corollary. Simmons says that any team that has a head coach over age 55 should be worried because the success rate for these coaches doesn't seem high. "Maybe coaching isn't a young man's game, but it's definitely a younger man's game" says Simmons.

I was thinking about the ideal coach because I was recently re-reading Rob Reischel's book Packers Essential. He discusses Vince Lombardi who was 46 in 1959 when the Packers hired him. Lombardi was a top NFL assistant with the New York Giants who believed he never would have a head coaching opportunity after getting passed over in New York. "He had prepared for that job for a long time," said former Packer Norm Masters. He was young, experienced, and knew exactly what he would do if he ever became a head coach.

While an NFL team is unlikely to find the next Lombardi, teams should be looking for someone with experience and past success, but who has never had a head coaching opportunity. Looking around the NFL at the top offenses, why doesn't Tom Moore's name ever get mentioned as a possible head coach? Maybe he is happy in Indianapolis and he does flunk the Speed Limit Coaching Corollary, but as the offensive coordinator of one of the best offenses in NFL history over the last 9 seasons, wouldn't you at least want to talk with him? How about Bob Bratkowski in Cincinnati? He has built Cincinnati's offense from the ground up and every important offensive player has been drafted since Bratkowski was hired in 2001. Cam Cameron was hired in Miami after a great season coordinating San Diego's offense, but both him and Marty Mornhinweg in Philadelphia have had previously unspectacular results as head coaches. If you ignore coaches that have failed in previous head coaching tries then you would miss some pretty good coaches like Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy. However, for every Belichick and Dungy, there are many retread coaches that never again succeed. I would look for the assistant coach with NFL experience, but first time head coach, and leave the retreads behind.

Yahoo! Sports writer John Murphy tried his hand at a mock draft and it was funny. Alan Branch and Jamaal Anderson in the top 5? It is debatable whether either player was the best defensive lineman on his own college team last season. They are both middle of the 1st round draft choices and either would be a good selection for the Packers at pick number 16. It would be wonderful if RB Adrian Peterson falls to the Packers at number 16, but there is no way Peterson should slip out of the top 5.

This is a non-Packer related post because it is signing day for college football teams. Watching the ticker on ESPN, it did not list the Wisconsin Badgers as one of the top 20 signing classes. Of course, trying to project how high school players to college has to be just as hard, if not harder, than projecting college players to the NFL. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel has a short bio on each of the players signed by the Badgers. It is a good sign is that Bret Bielema has a player at every position and is providing depth to his entire roster. That is a good draft strategy for NFL teams too. For instance, when the Packers offensive line was great between 2001 and 2004, the Packers didn't draft an offensive lineman on the first day of the draft. When Gs Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle left in 2005, they had no quality depth to replace them and signed two veteran free agents who quickly flamed out. Last year, GM Ted Thompson did well to draft Gs Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz on the first day and improved the line, but he was lucky that both of them were able to step right in and contribute. WR Nick Toon caught my attention, since he is the son of former Pro Bowl and Badger great WR Al Toon. The only position where the Badgers didn't add much depth was at offensive lineman, but the single OT signed, Josh Oglesby, is arguably the best in the high school offensive lineman in the country.

The headline says the Packers are not going on a free agent spending spree, but it is misleading. GM Ted Thompson isn't going to throw big money at a free agent or two as quid pro quo for QB Brett Favre's return. Since Thompson's first draft choice was QB Aaron Rodgers, I wondered last season if Thompson wasn't trying to encourage Favre's retirement by blowing up the team and letting Rodgers take over. However, it is unlikely that Thompson could survive long if Favre does retire in a way that makes it seem like Thompson is pushing Favre out.

Thompson will be active in free agency if 2006 is any guide. Last season he made one good signing that worked out as well as was expected with NT Ryan Pickett. One signing that seemed bad and turned out bad with S Marquand Manuel. Finally he made one big signing that looked like a disaster, but turned out to be one of the best free agent signings by any team with CB Charles Woodson. He made a good non-signing by letting K Ryan Longwell go to Minnesota. There aren't as many holes this offseason, but there are still are some free agents that should be targeted.

There is a need for depth at wide receiver. WRs Greg Jennings and Ruvell Martin might be good next season, but for the most part neither was good enough to start last season. Although Tennessee will probably overpay to keep him, WR Drew Bennett could be the most likely target from this list of wide receivers. Not that Bennett is any good, Football Outsiders has him ranked as the 56th best WR last season, but Bennett is 6'5" and Mike McCarthy prefers tall receivers based on reports I read last offseason. Bennett's biggest problem is the awful 47% of intended passes that he caught last season. You can't blame QB Vince Young either, because Bennett caught an awful 53% in 2005. On the 2005 list, you can see WR Robert Ferguson's awful 47% catch percentage in 2005 and understand why I am not considering Ferguson has a legitimate option in 2007. Based on the Football Outsiders list from 2006, the Packers should seriously consider making an offer to restricted free agent WRs D.J. Hackett and Patrick Crayton or unrestricted free agent WRs Kevin Curtis and Keenan McCardell. McCardell is one of the few players left in the NFL that is almost as old as Favre, but McCardell still caught 71% of the passes intended for him.

Maybe the player most likely to be signed is TE Jerramy Stevens. Just like Manuel last season, he has that connection to Seattle from when Thompson was in their front office. It would seem impossible that Stevens will stay in Seattle after becoming a notorious pass dropping machine ever since the Super Bowl. Although Stevens has concerns, he is no Manuel, and he was one of the best TEs in the NFL in 2005. There is a major need to upgrade at tight end to find someone who can catch the ball. Stevens was one of the top 10 worst regular tight ends in 2006 when he managed to stay healthy, but he was still three times better than TE Bubba Franks who is parked dead last on that list. Stevens is still young, needs a change of scenery, and could return to his 2005 form. For a contract that limits the long term cap damage if he doesn't work out, he could be a good signing.

Could WR Randy Moss become a Packer? I couldn't find the Chris Mortenson report on espn.com to confirm that rumor, but it would not be a surprise me to find Oakland shopping Moss around for a 3rd round pick plus a veteran receiver. After the disaster 2006 season Moss had as a clubhouse disruption and his obvious slacking off on the field, it would seem optimistic that they could find someone willing to surrender anything higher than a 4th round (second day) pick for Moss and even then it might be conditional on Moss not being cut. It was widely felt that Seattle overpaid by trading a 1st round pick for WR Deion Branch, and the Packers only received a 2nd round pick for WR Javon Walker. Usually the team trading away the big salary takes the salary cap hit, so if the pick is conditional it might be a low risk trade for another team, as far as the salary cap goes, and the possibility of release might even get Moss's attention.

The Packers desperately need a veteran wide receiver to either push WRs Greg Jennings and Ruvell Martin or start alongside WR Donald Driver. The Packers probably have the salary cap room to make the trade. Supposedly Chris Mortenson reported that QB Brett Favre asked the team to consider it, which seems possible since Favre has to remember how good Moss can be. If Favre was a strong locker room presence, then he could probably keep Moss in check, but from everything I have read, Favre doesn't have a lot of friends on the team anymore. That probably has something to do with the fact that most of the team is closer in age to his eldest daughter than to him. A talent like Moss has to be considered, but it would be better to play it safe and see what the free agent market would offer instead.

Do players make the Pro Bowl after a good season, or do Pro Bowl players make it a good season? After having no Pro Bowl players in 2005, the Packers have two in 2006; WR Donald Driver and DE Aaron Kampman. If you look at the list of past Pro Bowl selections from the Packers, there are some players that probably made it because the Packers had a good season. TE Bubba Franks made it in 2003 because he had made it the previous two seasons and the NFC was not loaded with great tight ends. G Marco Rivera had some struggles in 2004, but still was selected to the Pro Bowl. However, both Driver and Kampman really earned their spots in 2006. Driver should have been shut down by opposing defenses by mid-season once it was obvious that QB Brett Favre didn't have any other receiving threat on the team. Meanwhile Kampman continues to improve each season. In 2004 and 2005, he was usually solid and had a big game two or three times per season. But in 2006, he had a big game every week, except for two or three times when he didn't make an impact.

QB Brett Favre's return is great news. It was understandable that Favre would not return after the 2005 season because it was his first losing season, head coach Mike Sherman was fired, and there were going to be a lot of new faces in 2006. I wondered if Favre was risking his life playing behind an offensive line likely to feature at least two rookie starters in a new zone blocking scheme. Instead Favre survived the season, the offensive line played much better than expected, and the running game came back to life. Still the offense was below average last season. Commentators like the Sports Guy through Favre was done, but Favre didn't have an above average receiver other than WR Donald Driver. Maybe RB Ahman Green was above average, but Green was used only as the checkdown receiver. WR Greg Jennings had a big start, but was hurt or ineffective for the last three quarters of the season. TE Bubba Franks was a disaster. Welcome Favre back and hope GM Ted Thompson finds a quality receiver or tight end in the draft, or more likely in free agency, that can help Favre in 2007.

I hate all the stuff leading up to the Super Bowl. All the pregame analysis is generally a bunch of hot air. If ESPN had Ron Jaworski breaking down film everynight, I would probably watch that show, but unfortunately they usually have the embarrasing Sean Salisbury talking loudly at the camera. The advertising tie-ins are everywhere, QB Drew Brees couldn't go onto Dan Patrick's radio show without making sure he was allowed to pitch that he is Visa's NFL spokesman in Miami this week. However, when I read that the Navy is inviting a few Packers onto an aircraft carrier to watch the Super Bowl with the sailors onboard, well that is cool.

The Packers resigned long snapper Rob Davis. He only plays on special teams during punting and field goal opportunities, but I can't remember a blown long snap since Davis took over in 1996 and when the Packers kick coverage struggled during the middle of the season, it seemed like Davis was always the first guy down the field. Plus it is cool that he will turn 40 next season and is still playing well.

The Packers are drafting 16th overall in the upcoming April draft. Last April, Miami drafted CB Jason Allen who didn't start, but looking at his game log had a very good game when Miami upset Chicago. In 2005, Houston drafted DE Travis Johnson, who everyone might have forgotten about because he only has one sack in two seasons, and appears on his way to becoming a bust. However, in 2004 Philadelphia drafted a pretty good G Shawn Andrews who has started every game the last two seasons. It is even better in 2003 when Pittsburgh drafted Pro Bowl S Troy Polamalu, but not in 2002 when Cleveland drafted RB William Green. Before that was WR Santana Moss by the NY Jets and LB Julian Peterson by San Francisco. Excluding Allen at this point, one thing that stands out is that teams that frequently make the playoffs (Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, and San Francisco back in 2000) selected quality players at number 16, while perennially bad Houston and Cleveland picked poorly. It is a lot to hang on one draft selection, but if GM Ted Thompson selects a quality player in the first round, it might be a very telling sign whether he is going to build a perennial playoff team or doormat.

Oops. I blew it and forgot to comment on the Packers 2007 schedule when it was posted at the beginning of January. The Packers eight wins in 2006 was due in large part to the weak schedule they played. Excluding the annual conference games, in 2006 they played all the NFC West, AFC East, plus New Orleans and Philadelphia. In 2007, they will play the tougher NFC East and AFC West, plus Carolina and St. Louis. At first glance that 2007 schedule looks harder than the 2006 one. However, they will still play the same NFC North schedule that provided 5 of their 8 wins in 2006. With both Detroit and Minnesota unlikely to show much improvement in 2007, it would seem likely that the Packers would be favored to win those 4 games again. Then the Packers would have to go 4-8 against their remaining schedule to match 2006's 8-8 record. However, all the 2007 opponents except Chicago, Philadelphia and San Diego have major issues or a coaching transition to address next season (San Diego has a major issue, but it concerns how to win a playoff game with Marty Schottenheimer) and it wouldn't be surprising to expect the Packers to instead go 6-6 against those opponents. That would project a 2007 record of 10-6 and that usually is good enough to make the playoffs, as it was in 2006. Assuming the QB and RB positions have stability next season, or at least they do not become a problem, then there should be a lot of optimism looking forward to next season.

It was announced that former Packers WR Robert Brooks and S LeRoy Butler will be inducted into the Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame. The HOF inducts some players that might not strike you as HOF material, such as the 2005 induction of RB Edgar Bennett. Although Bennett might be a great guy, he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry for his career and only reached 4.0 yards per carry once in his career. As great as the mid-90s Packer teams were, they had some serious lack of depth at running back during Favre's MVP seasons. RB Dorsey Levens had his moments, but he really was only good during 1996 while outstanding in 1997. Brooks suffers from the same problem as Levens because he only had two good seasons, 1995 and 1998, plus one outstanding season in 1996, before injuries cut his career short. Actually Levens had the same problem when his 1998 injury basically ended the productive part of his career. Maybe Levens should have been inducted at the same time as Brooks. However, Butler is a slam dunk HOF inductee. He was probably the 2nd best player on the outstanding 1996 season defense after DE Reggie White. Butler's best seasons were outstanding plus he had a long and productive 11 season career. Maybe he should be inducted just for starting the Lambeau Leap.

One coach left the NFC North when Pittsburgh hired Minnesota's defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin as their new head coach. The first thing mentioned on ESPN during the Tomlin story was that Minnesota had the number 1 ranked run defense in the NFL last season. If that is why Tomlin got the job, he owes DT Pat Williams. Williams destroyed C Scott Wells in both meetings and destroyed the Packers run offense. This is not to trash Wells, who played very well in the other 14 games when he didn't have to face Williams. How DT Kevin Williams made it to the Pro Bowl over Pat Williams is a complete mystery. I wasn't too impressed that Tomlin couldn't figure out a way to cover WR Donald Driver with someone other than a linebacker when Driver killed them in the slot at Minnesota. Hopefully Tomlin will offer the defensive coordinator's job in Pittsburgh to Pat Williams so the Packers will have a chance to run against Minnesota in 2007.

The Packers were one of the youngest NFL teams last season. They ended up leading the league in games played by rookies with 66. LB A.J. Hawk and OL Daryn Colledge got deserved NFL all-rookie team honors, but WR Greg Jennings didn't deserve it. Jennings was one of the worst receivers in the NFL last season, ending with his last game vs. Minnesota when he only caught 1 of 13 passes thrown his way. His first few games, prior to his injury, were very good, but he never played well after his return. It would have been very surprising if Jennings was a strong player in his rookie season, but he really has a lot of room for improvement in 2007.

The Packers front office might get a little thinner if Reggie McKenzie is hired as Tennessee's new GM. McKenzie has been a hold over since the days of GM Ron Wolf. Apparently McKenzie got along with Ted Thompson during Thompson's days in Green Bay in the 1990s because and McKenzie has remained and is the highly ranked Director of Pro Personnel. It isn't obvious that McKenzie's departure would hurt the Packers. Tennessee decided to let long time GM Floyd Reese resign earlier this month. It would seem like a challenging GM position since Jeff Fisher just received a contract extension and he would be saddled with the decision to bet the franchise on the talents of QB Vince Young for the near future. Young made some spectacular plays in 2006, but overall he did not play that well.

This news is a bit stale by now, but the Packers new offensive coordinator is Joe Philbin. Since Mike McCarthy is calling the plays, Philbin's hiring shouldn't have much effect on the offense in 2007. It is interesting that Philbin is left over from the Mike Sherman era. Another interesting bit of news is that Winston Moss was named assistant head coach, usually a label slapped on a coach to prevent him from leaving to a coordinator's position with another team. For example, Andy Reid was given the assistant head coach title in the 1990s. Reid only left because he was offered Philadelphia's head coaching position. I wasn't too excited about Moss's hiring last spring since he was leaving New Orleans which had one of the worst groups of linebackers in the NFL. Although LB A.J. Hawk had a solid rookie season, it would have been a major disappointment if he didn't. LB Nick Barnett had another solid season, but also developed more of a tendency to overpursue. LB Brady Poppinga got better as the season went on after playing very poorly in pass coverage early in the season. Rookie LB Abdul Hodge never showed enough to beat out Poppinga, although he returned an INT for a TD during his only start at Seattle while Barnett was out with a broken hand. Those four linebackers combined for 24 pass defenses in 2006 which was a major improvement on the pathetic 9 pass defenses recorded by the top 2005 LBs Barnett, Na'il Diggs, Robert Thomas, and Paris Lenon. Barnett alone went from 2 to 8, while Poppinga went from zero to 5. Maybe the Packers knew teams were interested in Moss as defensive coordinator after a solid season for a group of mostly inexperienced linebackers.

While you can look at it for free, you have to look at the Football Outsiders Premium Stat Database. Aaron Schatz had been discussing these stats all season long on his weekly Fox Sports DVOA analysis column.

Football Outsiders ranked the Packers offense at 20th overall - below average and with a negative ranking. The only offense worse on 1st down than the Packers was Oakland, but unlike Oakland which was negative at every conceivable down and distance, the Packers were positive (above average) at every other conceivable down and distance other than 2nd and short. It seems likely that the Packers would revert to the mean on 1st down next season and there offense should improve. If WR Greg Jennings can improve and TE Bubba Franks can be replaced, then the offense can easily improve in 2007. However, if neither QB Brett Favre and RB Ahman Green, then it is time to start over on offense. QB Aaron Rodgers would at best play inconsistent although RB Vernand Morency might play just as well as Green, although Morency hasn't shown that he is much of a receiver yet.

The Packers defense was ranked 6th overall, and they were negative (above average) at every conceivable down and distance except 1st and 10. At first it seemed the late season improvement by the defense was due to the very weak competition they faced during the last four games, but DVOA takes strength of schedule into account. One major improvement over the last four games that cannot receive enough recognition is the great interior pass rush provided by DTs Cullen Jenkins and Corey Williams during that stretch. Where were they during the first twelve games? Jenkins missed some games with injury, but Williams was active for all 16 games. Despite the duos great play, the Packers should still try and improve the depth at defensive line in the draft and maybe Michigan's DT Alan Branch will fall into the middle of the first round.

The biggest challenge GM Ted Thompson faces this offseason is whether he can admit he made a mistake last offseason with S Marquand Manuel. The Packers defense played very well during the last four games of the season, as Tom Silverstein points out, the Packers didn't play any good offenses during that stretch except Chicago, and QB Rex Grossman admitted that he phoned that game in (better luck with your next NFL team Rex). Silverstein brings back the memories of the twenty-three explosive plays surrendered in the first twelve games. The pass defense ranged between solid with occasional lapses (see Buffalo game) to complete confusion and collapse (see Philadelphia). I was very wrong regarding the release of CB Ahmad Carroll and his subtraction was a major addition to the secondary. It seemed obvious that the main cause of the problem this season was the play of the safeties. FS Nick Collins deserves another chance after playing only his second season above Division I-AA (now called the subdivision), recovering from a preseason injury, and finishing the season with an outstanding game at Chicago. However, Manuel was torched from the beginning, his only preseason game against Cincinnati was a three TD disaster, until the end when he let WR Mark Bradley run by him for Chicago's only TD in week 17. The only player on the roster who has a chance to start ahead of Manuel is S Marviel Underwood, but in a seperate article, Tom Silverstein does not sound too optimistic about him coming back strong after major knee surgery. Thompson should address the position in free agency in March, but will he admit he made a mistake with Manuel or instead give him a second chance?

Assuming QB Brett Favre returns in 2007, the other and equally important task for Thompson is to give Favre more weapons. For all the talk about Favre being old and done, there has been no talk about how WR Greg Jennings was one of the worst WRs in the league and TE Bubba Franks was the worst TE. Jennings caught only one of the thirteen passes thrown his way in week 16 and was mercifully shown the bench in week 17. Franks was a pass dropping machine in 2006, when he wasn't fumbling at the goal line. Jennings struggles began after his mid-season injury and there are many reasons to expect him to bounce back. Expecting Franks to bounce back is a fantasy; he just finished his seventh season and he has never shown very good hands during his career. Excluding the WR Koren Robinson saga, the next depth behind Jennings are two little used wide receivers and the injury prone WR Robert Ferguson. Behind Franks is the ever injured TE David Martin. None of these players should be ignored, but none of them can be counted on either. It is shaping up to be a weak free agent class and better receivers might only be found in the draft.

How will the Packers play in 2007? Mostly it depends on QB Brett Favre's return. He didn't have a very good season, but it really hurt that he played with a new head coach, mostly rookie offensive line all learning a new blocking scheme, and the Packers started one of the 5 worst WRs and the worst receiving TE. TE Bubba Franks's days as a receiving TE are over, but WR Greg Jennings was a rookie, played through an injury, and appeared to hit the rookie wall. Jennings shouldn't have played that well in his first NFL season after coming from a small school. Hopefully he bounces back in 2007. Favre appears to have confidence in WRs Ruvell Martin and Carlyle Holliday, and he threw the ball a lot better when they were in the game. TE David Martin played well, when he was healthy, but as it has gone during his entire career, Martin was again often injured. Peter King wrote last Monday that the Packers could really use TE Tony Gonzalez. That won't happen because Kansas City will use their franchise tag on him, but they need to find a quality free agent WR or pass receiving TE to help Favre. It seems that Favre needs receivers he can trust, he defintely didn't trust Jennings during the last Minnesota game. He could have really used WR Javon Walker this season; how much better would Favre had been if he had Walker and Driver? The Packers used Denver's draft choice to select LG Daryn Colledge, who had an excellent rookie season, but they would be better off with Walker.

If Favre leaves, then we will see if QB Aaron Rodgers is as awful as awful has he has looked during his limited appearances. Rodgers hasn't played under the best circumstances and he has never played an entire game are legitimate defenses for Rodgers, but he still hasn't shown anything yet.

The defense played very well during the four game winning streak to end the season, but they played against a number of bad offenses. Chicago was the first quality offense they played during the winning streak, and while Chicago could run the ball, their pass offense was awful. CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson are a solid foundation, and FS Nick Collins struggled at times, but ended the season very well with a monster game at Chicago. 20, 17, 14, 3. The number of pass defenses during 2006 for Harris, Woodson, Collins, and finally S Marquand Manuel. Manuel is obviously the weakest link in the secondary and he has to be replaced. The Packers were very high on S Marviel Underwood until he blew out his knee in the preseason, so that is one in-house candidate to replace Manuel. S Tyrone Culver is on the roster, but the Packers showed no sign of replacing Manuel with him. This is another area the Packers have to improve in free agency this offseason.

The Packers started the same linebackers for all 16 games, except when LB Abdul Hodge started in place of injured LB Nick Barnett. LB Brady Poppinga struggled early but seemed to improve along with LB A.J. Hawk as the season goes on. It seems likely that all three starters will return next season, and that is not bad despite their struggles, because this is the best group of linebackers in the last few seasons.

The Packers need to address the defensive line in the 2007 draft. If the Packers could draft high enough to take RB Adrian Peterson, that would be a different story. The Packers could draft a WR too, but at the middle of the 1st round, defensive line seems like the safe pick. They could draft an end to replace DE KGB on 1st and 2nd down, who then could slide over to DT on passing downs. DTs Corey Williams and Cullen Jenkins have been solid over the last four games, but drafting a starting DT would essentially replace DT Colin Cole, who has made no impact during the four game winning streak, in the rotation at tackle and end. Ryan Pickett is a solid nose tackle, so a pass rushing DT, like ex-Packer DT Santana Dotson, would seem to make the most sense. Maybe someone like Michigan's DT Alan Branch.

The special teams were one of the worst in the NFL this season and need to be upgraded. Hopefully with a different coaching staff and another a full season of experience for many first year players will make a big difference on the kick coverage and returns.

This will be a quiet playoff season for the Packers. No playoff games, no new coaches, and probably no decision from Favre. They have a lot of planning to do for the draft and in free agency, maybe as much as $30 million available under the salary cap this offseason. GM Ted Thompson has proven that he can draft good players, made one good move in free agency signing Pickett and one great move signing Woodson when everyone thought he couldn't play cornerback anymore. Unfortunately he signed the awful Manuel and blew it by trading away Walker when they had plenty of cap room to make him happy. Hopefully he avoids the awful decisions this offseason.

Packers 26, Chicago 7. Maybe QB Brett Favre was crying because he was playing his last game. On Monday, Peter King wrote that Favre said the same thing at the end of last season too. No one knows, probably not even Favre. Anyway they played a game too. It wasn't surprising that the Packers won, but it was surprising that they won despite Chicago playing their first team offense and defense for the entire game. The Packers missed the playoffs, but at least they beat one team this season that had a winning record.

First Quarter: TD pass on a slant to WR Donald Driver where he has been killing pass defenses all season long; between the hash marks. QB Rex Grossman looked awful in this game because the Packers put pressure on him. DTs Corey Williams and Cullen Jenkins have been excellent inside pass rushers over the four game winning streak, while DE KGB consistently beat LT John Tait and DE Aaron Kampman had a typical, excellent game. Grossman looked awful back in week 1 when he was pressured too. FS Nick Collins struggled this season, but was a monster in this game, jumping on the pass intended for TE Desmond Clark.

Second Quarter: RB Cedric Benson was the only part of their offense that was working. He ran through an arm tackle by LB Brady Poppinga, who was partial blocked on the play, for a big gain, but then Grossman fumbled the ball a couple plays later. K Dave Rayner had his worst game of the season with a missed PT and missed 32 yard FG. CB Al Harris had another great game, shutting down Muhammad who had his only catch in this quarter. CB Charles Woodson had another interception and another good punt return. The Packers move the ball best with three WRs in the game and Favre seems to be comfortable throwing to WRs Ruvell Martin and Carlyle Holliday. CB Patrick Dendy had an INT and a return for a TD? Dendy has been a pleasant surprise this season, but Grossman is bad.

Third Quarter: It is time to run the ball and kill the clock, but the Packers throw the ball for most of the quarter. This game is dragging along at a snail's pace. A fake punt completely fools the special teams and P Brad Maynard proves he is the best passer on Chicago's roster. Luckily QB Brian Griese is allowed to come back in and throws an awful interception to ruin the fake punt. Nice play by LB A.J. Hawk to go up and snag the INT. Griese makes up for it with a great TD pass to WR Mark Bradley. He blew by Dendy on the coverage, but SS Marquand Manuel let him run right by him. What coverage scheme calls for the safety to let a receiver run right by him down the middle of the field? That had to be Manuel's fault.

Fourth Quarter: At first the Packers are still throwing the ball and Benson is still running right over the Packers. Then Griese throws another INT (great game Collins!) and the Packers finally start running the ball. They run on the first 9 of 12 plays on the over 8 minute drive and end the game.

Packers 9, Minnesota 7. QB Brett Favre just wins games! Favre has been awful over the last two games with zero TD passes and 5 INTs. His receivers have not been helping him, TE Bubba Franks and WR Greg Jennings both were embarrasing against Minnesota, but Favre has thrown some bad passes. His second INT appeared to be Jennings fault, but then Favre made a comment on the sidelines saying Jennings "just stopped" as if he had no idea where Jennings was going. He did the same thing last season, it was like he got bored with the remaining schedule and started throwing it up for grabs. Despite Favre's struggles, Mike McCarthy's reluctance to call running plays the last two games, and the poor special teams play, the defense has dominated and won the games. The defense still showed some holes against Detroit, but they dominated Minnesota in every way and no one made a bad play. Still, ignore any "the defense has turned the corner" stories you may read over the next week. Their two wins were against two of the worst offenses in the NFL. Only Tampa Bay and beyond awful Oakland are worse than Detroit, while Minnesota's offense came into the game in free fall and giving a rookie QB his first NFL start.

The Packers still have a chance to make the playoffs. The teams the Packers have beaten this season have a combined winning percentage of .320. No team has a strength of victory percentage. They would have to beat Chicago next week to actually make the playoffs, so that percentage would increase slightly. If Chicago benches most of their starters, then the Packers have a chance at the win.

WR Donald Driver and DE Aaron Kampman were selected for the Pro Bowl. Neither player is a surprise because Driver leads the NFC in receiving while Kampman leads the NFC in sacks. CB Al Harris made it as an alternate and he is right that CB Charles Woodson is having a Pro Bowl season. Both Harris and Woodson are hurt because the Packers pass defense is so awful overall due to the poor coverage from the linebackers and safeties. However the defenses for Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Philadelphia are all struggling too but that didn't stop CBs Ronde Barber, DeAngelo Hall, or Lito Sheppard from making it to Hawaii. Barber was a shoo-in after he returned two INTs for TDs against Philadelphia. It was ironic that Hall and Sheppard beat Harris the week after Hall was beaten for a TD by WR Terrell Owens and Sheppard by WR Plexico Burress, while Harris shut down WR Roy Williams.

RT Mark Tauscher is healthy again and will play against Minnesota. Rookie RT Tony Moll has played well, but Tauscher is their best offensive lineman. However this doesn't mean that the Packers will be able to run the ball because NT Pat Williams has killed the Packers run offense in their last three games against Minnesota. The Packers should play a lot of three receiver sets and attack Minnesota's weak pass coverage.

Packers 17, Detroit 9. Must flee TV. What an ugly game. Neither quarterback played well at all, lots of turnovers, and lots of penalties. As bad as the Packers have played at home this season, any win helps, but this win did not inspire confidence against the Vikings at home next week.

First Quarter: Football Outsiders says that Detroit's offensive line is 25th on running plays and 28th on passing plays, but after watching this game I could have been convinced they are the worst in the NFL. They gave their backs nowhere to run and QB Jon Kitna had no time to throw. DT Cullen Jenkins doubled his season sack total (from 3.5 to 6.5 for the season) in the first half! Kitna didn't help himself when he had time, and threw an awful interception to CB Al Harris. Harris made a great juggling catch, but Kitna threw an awful pass where only Harris could catch it and gave WR Roy Williams no chance. Unfortunately QB Brett Favre isn't playing much better and although TE David Martin dropped a TD reception and one other pass on the same drive. Favre sets the NFL record for completions on a nice slant route to WR Carlyle Holiday. The Packers seem opposed to running the ball (5 1st quarter rushes vs. 10 1st quarter passes) and each team only manages a field goal in the quarter.

Second Quarter: The defense played an outstanding game. Detroit couldn't run the ball, Kitna had no time, and the Packers recovered turnovers. Detroit's offense had less than 100 yards of offense in the first half. Unfortunately, Favre's dump off pass to RB Ahman Green is too high and leads to an interception by ex-Badger CB Jamal Fletcher after a good drive to start the quarter. After another Kitna sack and Detroit punt, the Packers manage a good drive, TE Donald Lee saves the drive with a great catch-and-run on 3rd and 10, and a pass happy drive (7 passes, 2 runs) leads to RB Vernand Morency's first TD run. The biggest difference in the game is that the Packers can run the ball and Detroit can't. Favre threw passes to three tight ends in the half, and all were dropped except the completion to Lee. The Packers are playing their tight ends too much. With the exception of a brief streak by David Martin before his injury, throwing to the tight ends has not been a good offensive strategy. The passing offense only works with Favre throwing to the wide receivers and usually with three wide receivers in the game.

Third Quarter: Mike Martz may be an offensive genius, but it took him until the second half to realize the Packers' linebackers can't cover. Kitna passes to TE Casey FitzSimmons and RB Arlen Harris on a crossing route lead to another Detroit field goal. It could have been a touchdown but Kitna forced a 3rd down pass into the end zone instead of throwing it to a wide open Arlen Harris on another crossing route. The offense has three drives die in the quarter; the first two were killed by penalities and the last one by an awful interception in the end zone by Favre. What was he thinking? FOX reports that CB Charles Woodson has recovered 7 turnovers (INTs and fumbles) this season and he leads the NFL. I thought Woodson would be an awful free agent and be out for the season by week 4, but he has played through injuries and has been one of the best free agent signings by any team this season. WR Mike Williams comes to life and eventually leads the team in receptions (3) for the day because Martz lines him up in the slot and he beats the linebackers covering him.

Fourth Quarter: Favre has another interception, but Green really should have caught that pass. Detroit only has 12 yards to go but decided to run it three times although they are averaging less then 3 yards per carry. They settle for another field goal. Finally, with Favre struggling and only 9:29 left in the game, the Packers decide to run the ball a lot. It leads to a clock killing drive ending with Morency's 2nd TD run of the game. Detroit has one more chance, but it only leads to two more Kitna sacks.

Good news for offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski because he was hired as Boston College's next head coach. It was an odd decision to rehire Jagodzinski as offensive coordinator last spring, because he was fired as the tight ends coach in 2004 after the infamous playoff loss in Philadelphia. His name hasn't been mentioned too much this season because Mike McCarthy was doing all the play calling. But Jagodzinski brought a zone blocking scheme from Atlanta that he learned from legendary offensive line coach Alex Gibbs. Now all three offensive linemen drafted in 2006 are currently in the starting lineup, and the Packers offensive line is much improved from 2005.

Packers 30, San Francisco 19. After watching the Packers blown out vs. New England and NY Jets, plus QB Matt Hasselbeck tear apart the pass defense during the second half at Seattle, it was great that the Packers prove they can still win in the NFL. Despite RB Frank Gore's fantastic season, QB Alex Smith is still a work in progress and their offense isn't very good. Both defenses were similar; average run defenses with awful pass defenses. Neither team was able to cover kick returns. K Dave Rayner is one of the Packers leading special teams tacklers over the last few games.

First Quarter: Gore opens the game with a big run right at DE KGB. There was some talk of him getting benched because DT Corey Williams was practicing at end this week, but that was only because DE Mike Montgomery didn't practice last week. KGB fought off the block, but then missed the tackle. Tackling hasn't been the biggest problem for the Packers defense this season, but this was probably their worst tackling game of the season. The offense managed to fight right back and San Francisco proved that not only the Packers can leave wide receivers wide open in the end zone and it was good for WR Ruvell Martin's first career TD. Turnovers killed San Francisco in this game; Gore had a great game but he fumbled at San Francisco's 5 yard line and set up an easy field goal.

Second Quarter: The offense continues to hum along. Maybe it helps that QB Brett Favre's elbow injury is better. Maybe it helps that Martin and TE Donald Lee (who was essentially playing wide receiver) played more in this game to open up holes in the zone for WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings down the field. In Mike McCarthy's offense, the wide receivers are the receivers that have to produce in the passing game, while the tight end and backs are dump off options. San Francisco can't sustain drives because Smith is 2-for-6 passing on 3rd or 4th down; 3 drives during the half ended in Packer territory, but only led to 6 points. CB Charles Woodson played a great game, especially considering he is playing with sore ribs that forced him to leave for the locker room early. He returned in the second half and had a great 40 yard punt return in the 4th quarter.

Third Quarter: The Packers secondary played their best game of the season, except CB Al Harris. Harris didn't play awful, but he gave up a big pass play to WR Antonio Bryant and gave up the most yards he had allowed in several games. Smith finally found TE Vernon Davis in the second half and exploited the Packers weak coverage against tight ends and backs. Smith completed 4 passes to Davis and three different running backs that led to their first TD. The offense had two 3-and-out drives and San Francisco had some momentum until Smith's first INT killed it. Great diving play by FS Nick Collins. Almost immediately Favre hits Driver on a slant route, Driver breaks a tackle, and runs for a TD. On the play, Lee went in motion and played outside, allowing Driver to work out of the slot, where he has been killing teams this season.

Fourth Quarter: After Smith's first INT, San Francisco's offense slumped. Two 3-and-outs, the second drive scuttled by a holding call that brought back a big gain to Davis, while the Packers pad their lead with two field goals. A big return and another big catch by Davis start a good San Francisco drive, before it is killed by an awful interception by Smith in the end zone to LB A.J. Hawk. San Francisco had three turnovers that killed them; they all either led to Packer points or stopped drives in Packer territory. Smith quickly recovers and throws a big TD pass to Davis. If his one reception hadn't been called back on a penalty, Davis would have had over 100 yards receiving in the 2nd half against the Packers. But that was the last from Smith and Davis, because the Packers execute a perfect 5 minute drive to end the game.

Former GM Ron Wolf to replace Matt Millen in Detroit? Adam Schefter appears to be speculating rather then reporting something that has been discussed. It would be a shock if Wolf ever comes back to the NFL as a GM. Although I thought Joe Gibbs would never return to the NFL either.

So maybe DT Corey Williams will play some at DE KGB's spot. With the pass defense in complete collapse, the Packers are trying to fix the second biggest problem on the Packers defense; team's ability to run right over DE KGB. It is a far distant second, but it is a big problem. It is also a problem that DTs Williams, Colin Cole, and Cullen Jenkins don't provide KGB much support on that side either. It couldn't hurt playing Williams at end, while big DT Johnny Jolly gets some playing time at tackle, to add some size to the defensive line on running downs. Mike McCarthy said "it's really the coordination between himself, the tackle, and the line to bring a support element to that side" to help explain why it is a team effort that KGB is being eaten alive by opposing left tackles this season.

Packers 10, NY Jets 38. The first half was some of the worst football I have ever watched. Phil Simms started comparing it to a college football blow out. At least the Jets took pity/forgot how they were killing the Packers in the second half.

First half: The offense struggled, but never turned the ball over in Packer territory. The blown protection was probably because RT Tony Moll is starting only his third game at right tackle and still has some learning to do. RT Mark Tauscher is the Packers best offensive lineman, and they haven't been as good over the last three games without him. Moll didn't appear to make any mistakes after the first quarter and played well. QB Chad Pennington isn't good at throwing deep passes, but is pretty accurate within 15 yards. The Packers seem snakebit on the long wide open TD passes they were giving up earlier in the year and now they can't cover anything short. CB Al Harris shut down their top receiver Coles, while CBs Charles Woodson and Patrick Dendy played well in the game. But Cotchery and Baker torched the Packers' linebackers and safeties. It is really hard to watch and see how the linebackers and safeties are only getting worse in coverage as the year goes on. FS Nick Collins looked bad on Cotchery's TD reception but was it because he is bad, the scheme is bad, or his hamstring is still bothering him. S Marquand Manuel didn't give up a TD reception, but he tried on the Jets first drive except Pennington overthrew the receiver and the Jets settled for a FG. LB Nick Barnett overpursued on every play during the game and was fooled badly on Baker's TD reception. Although the Jets threw everything short and the Packers dropped their linebackers into coverage on almost every play, LB Brady Poppinga had no pass defenses while LB A.J. Hawk only had one. The Packers even tried some zone blitzes that didn't fool Pennington at all and DE Aaron Kampman is not good in coverage. The pass rush didn't step up either, and the Packers were awful on 3rd down. There are some players who probably shouldn't be starting in the NFL on defense, Poppinga, Manuel, and possibly Collins, but the defensive coaches are outmatched by their peers and should all be replaced.

Second Half: When the offense doesn't get wide receivers involved in the offense, the offense struggles. It is too easy to stop the Packers when TE Bubba Franks and whoever at fullback, because they are not receiving threats. RB Ahman Green could be used as an effective receiver, but he is never asked to do anything except block first and then go out for a dump off pass. TE David Martin can open up the passing game, but he is still out with an injury. Once the Packers had WRs Ruvell Martin and Chris Francies in the game, things opened up for WR Donald Driver. The pass offense seems to be much better with Driver in the slot and Martin and Jennings outside. The Packers have to start spreading it out on every down. The defense had two interceptions that finally stopped the Jets, including a great play by Woodson. The run defense allowed a few big plays but that was not something that has happened much this season, and it probably was caused because the pass defense was in collapse. The 32 yard run on a reverse probably wouldn't have happened if the Packers weren't overpursing on every play. RB Cedric Houston had a 31 yard run because Barnett overpursued and effectively blocked Woodson out of the play. The pass defense was a lot better because the Jets ran so often and they stopped attacking the linebackers and safeties in coverage.

If the Packers play like they did against the Jets, then they won't beat anybody the rest of the season. This looked like a winnable game a couple of weeks ago, but without Martin and Tauscher the offense is struggling and the pass defense has completely collapsed since then. Will the Packers finally let LB Abdul Hodge and S Tyrone Culver play to see if they can start. Let play DT Johnny Jolly and CB Will Blackmon too. Right now the defense needs all new coaches, a defensive tackle to play alongside NT Ryan Pickett, a defensive end to replaced DE KGB on running downs, and two safeties who can play pass defense. Maybe Culver and Blackmon can be the starting safeties in 2007? No one will know until they have a chance to play.

Why would the Packers seriously consider playing injured LB Nick Barnett or FS Nick Collins? To help with the playoff push? LB Abdul Hodge is healthy now, has spent a few months learning how to play in the NFL, and should get some playing time to see if he can start in 2007. Gary D'Amato thought it was Hodge's fault that RB Shaun Alexander ran for 200 yards. The problem has been the same all season long. Teams are running almost exclusively to the weak side and DEs KGB and Mike Montgomery have been killed all season long. Plus the Packers have been playing their small tackles (DTs Corey Williams, Colin Cole, and Cullen Jenkins) on the weak side. Seattle's LT Walter Jones and LG Pork Chop Womack are their two best lineman and they dominated that side. Until the Packers fix the weak side run defense, Hodge is going to have no room to work, and no opportunity to prove that he can effectively play. Collins has been getting better as the season has gone on, but he is no better than he was last season. Let him rest his hammy and see if S Tyrone Culver is good enough to start. He is at least better than S Marquand Manuel. Put them in coach!

Packers 24, Seattle 34. This was the most depressing game of the season, which says a lot for a 4-7 team. The losses against Chicago and New England were more lopsided, but the Packers were never in either game at any point. The only comparable game was the loss at Philadelphia. With QB Matt Hasselbeck's 4 turnovers in the first half and bad weather conditions, the Packers seemed likely to upset Seattle. QB Brett Favre was playing well despite his elbow injury and threw a long TD pass to WR Donald Driver to start the second half. It seemed like it was the Packers game to lose. Then they lost it. They fell apart in every way imaginable. The defense couldn't get off the field and RB Shaun Alexander ended up with 40(!) carries in the game. CB Patrick Dendy had played well so far as the nickel cornerback over the last few games, but he was torched in the 3rd quarter. The offensive line hasn't been the same over the last two games since RT Mark Tauscher, who is their best offensive lineman, has been out with an injury. The defensive line was shoved around. Favre reverted back to evil Favre and threw the ball up for grabs with three really bad interceptions.

Although it was because of LB Nick Barnett's injury, it was exciting to see LB Abdul Hodge's first NFL start. He was in the right place at the right time when he returned Hasselbeck's fumble for a TD and looked good in pass coverage. Hopefully he will start in the middle in 2007 with Barnett moved outside.

Packers 0, New England 35. QB Brett Favre said last week in Minnesota that everyone on the team contributed to the win. This week, everyone contributed to the loss. No one played well, no one coached well, and no one deserves to miss any blame for the loss. The real surprise was Favre's bad play and then the bad play by QB Aaron Rodgers. Football Outsiders wondered if there was a contagious disease inflicting all Packer quarterbacks with bad passing. Rodgers looked awful, but the big surprise was that he is out for the season with a foot injury and QB Todd Bouman is now the backup. Bouman played against the Packers last season with New Orleans and he looked horrible, so it is very good news that Favre appears to be ready to play on Monday. The team didn't drop far in Football Outsiders' rankings, so it is clear that New England is very good and the Packers aren't ready to compete against a quality team yet. The good news is that New England was the best team remaining on the Packers schedule, assuming Chicago is sitting all their starters in week 17. The Packers have played better on the road for the last three seasons, so a bounce back win against a struggling Seattle team is very possible.

Packers 23, Minnesota 17. QB Brett Favre said in the post-game press conference that this might have been the first game he ever played in that every player contributed during the game. While Favre was probably feeling pretty good after the win and wanted to complement his teammates, his analysis is pretty accurate and I'll just leave it at that with a few exceptions.

WR Billy McMullen's TD reception. For the THIRD week in a row, the Packers let an opposing wide receiver run WIDE open into the end zone for a TD. FOX finally showed a replay that helped explain this problem. When the Packers switch to a zone coverage, the opposing team is flooding the zone. On this play, another receiver ran a short route into that part of the zone and the safety stepped up to cover, leaving McMullen wide open. The safety screwed up, I don't remember which one was playing deep, by jumping on the wide open receiver in front of him instead of the wide open receiver running deep. However, the scheme failed because LB A.J. Hawk, according to the Journal-Sentinal, blew the coverage and was not deep enough to defend the short receiver. The safety messed up, Hawk messed up, and the pass rush gave QB Brad Johnson too much time to throw on that particular play. This is not an experienced group of linebackers and safeties, so learning from their mistakes will help and the coaches need to do a better job too.

NT Pat Williams. The FOX commentators said it and Football Outsiders agree; Minnesota has the best run defense in the NFL. Williams overpowered LG Daryn Colledge, C Scott Wells, RG Jason Spitz at different times during the game. This is not a problem because apparently Williams has been overpowering every opponent all season long and he killed the Packers last season too. The Packers might have ran away with this game if their run offense had been more effective. Hopefully the rookies know what to expect from Williams next time they meet and do better against him.

WR Donald Driver had a monster 1st half in large part because Minnesota had LB Dontarrious Thomas trying to cover him as the slot receiver. Was this due to CB Fred Smoot missing the game and Minnesota played less nickel coverage? Did Mike McCarthy outcoach Minnesota by creating such a favorable matchup? Either way it resulted in a big half for Driver.

A big thanks goes out to Minnesota's RB Artose Pinner who's penalty for a block in the back negated a kick return for a TD. The Packers might not have won the game without that penalty.

What is coming up for the Packers? Although the Packers have won their last 3 of 4 and the defense is overall playing better, the 4 games were played against 4 of the worst 6 offenses in the NFL. The good news is that the offense was able to move the ball against 2 of the top 10 defenses, Minnesota and Miami, and the Packers only play 1 top 10 offense (New England is ranked 10th by Football Outsiders) the rest of the season. The Packers have to win 6 of their next 7, for a 10-6 record, to guarantee a playoff spot, but 9-7 or 8-8 might make the playoffs this season. All of the Packers remaining games are winnable. New England is tough, but it is at Lambeau and New England's pass defense has been really weakened by the loss of S Rodney Harrison. Thereafter they will play no above average offensive team, although Seattle will probably have all their starters back by 11/27, and only two quality defensive teams, Minnesota and Chicago. Winning at Chicago would look impossible, but the Packers will probably see very few starters playing against them in week 17 as Chicago rests for the playoffs. The Packers are still not a very good team and still have allowed more points this season then they have scored. However, they have a legitimate chance at making the playoffs. At the beginning of the season, I projected the Packers would finish between 6-10 and 9-7, a wide range but it was unclear how this team would play in 2006. At the beginning I was pessimistic and expected a 6-10 season. Although the offense, defense, and special teams have all improved over the last 4 weeks and they have a favorable schedule, their inability to win at home, inconsistency in protecting the ball from turnovers, and a pass defense that allows too many big plays doesn't seem likely to win 5 of their next 7 games. I expect them to finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

Packers 10, Buffalo 24. This loss was reminicent of the Packers losses during the Mike Sherman era; the Packers outplayed their opponent but the turnovers killed them. In three of their previous four 2006 losses, the Packers lost because their defense couldn't stop anyone and turnovers didn't kill them, with the exception of the St. Louis game. At least St. Louis played well in that game and deserved to win as much as the Packers did. Against Buffalo, the Packers dominated on offense and defense only to let huge turnovers swing the game against them.

First Quarter: A big kickoff return sets up an easy FG. The Packers special teams were killed in this game on kick returns and kick coverage. It was the only Buffalo unit that outplayed their counterparts. The Packers offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage in their last few games and keeps improving each week, but they always struggle in the first quarter. The offense was slow to start out the game because of this. The defense played its best game of the season for the first three quarters, but unfortunately forced zero turnovers.

Second Quarter: Buffalo knew the Packersing Package!
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The extension paid to C Scott Wells seems reasonable. The "five-year contract, which will pay him up to $15 million after bonuses" is the same amount per season that Houston is paying C Mike Flanagan, and Wells is better than Flanagan at this point in their careers. Wells has been solid ever since he became a full-time starter during the middle of the 2005 season.

The special teams have gotten so bad that the AP even ran an article on it. K Dave Rayner blamed himself and his teammates. WR Shaun Bodiford was disappointed that he wasn't taking advantage of the opportunities his teammates were providing him. Special teams coordinator Mike Stock appeared to blame his players. Stock said "we didn't block anybody" and "we've got to improve the personnel." Stock hasn't been the coordinator of a good special teams unit since the mid-90s in Kansas City, so I'm thinking of putting the blame on Stock's shoulders. The Packers are so young that they really need good coaching to turn the special teams players into a unit, and that hasn't happened.

Packers 10, Buffalo 24. This loss was reminicent of the Packers losses during the Mike Sherman era; the Packers outplayed their opponent but the turnovers killed them. In three of their previous four 2006 losses, the Packers lost because their defense couldn't stop anyone and turnovers didn't kill them, with the exception of the St. Louis game. At least St. Louis played well in that game and deserved to win as much as the Packers did. Against Buffalo, the Packers dominated on offense and defense only to let huge turnovers swing the game against them.

First Quarter: A big kickoff return sets up an easy FG. The Packers special teams were killed in this game on kick returns and kick coverage. It was the only Buffalo unit that outplayed their counterparts. The Packers offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage in their last few games and keeps improving each week, but they always struggle in the first quarter. The offense was slow to start out the game because of this. The defense played its best game of the season for the first three quarters, but unfortunately forced zero turnovers.

Second Quarter: Buffalo knew the Packers liked to throw the quick slant pass but the Packers made no adjustments and dared Buffalo to stop them. The interception returned for a TD by LB London Fletcher wasn't a classic bad mistake by QB Brett Favre. It was designed to be a quick pass that Favre threw immediately before the defense had a chance to react, but Fletcher reacted. Favre threw it into tight coverage, but that was how the play was designed. Mike McCarthy should have seen the coverage and adjusted his play calling. The offense came back with a nice drive until a botched snap turned the ball over. As Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders has preached for a few years, teams can learn to force fumbles but fumbles are recovered by luck. So far this season, says Schatz, the Packers have "had poor luck with fumble recoveries." By this point of the game, Buffalo has still done nothing on offense. The Packers have another good drive to end the half, but the shotgun snap bounces off Favre's facemask and Buffalo recovers. C Scott Wells appeared to have snapped early, but how embarrasing was it for Favre to have it bounce off his facemask?

Third Quarter: FB William Henderson played a lot for the first time this season due to the injury to FB Brandon Miree and Henderson looked great. He had a reception for a first down and did a great job blocking Buffalo's linebackers on running plays. How did Henderson lose his job to Miree? The TD pass to WR Donald Driver was the same play that was intercepted in the 2nd quarter; a quick slant with Fletcher all over the passing lane, but Favre's throw just beats Fletcher. They won that gamble, but with the Packers starting to dominate Buffalo's defensive front seven, do they really need to gamble with these quick passes that Buffalo is expecting? The Packers pinned Buffalo deep in their territory on three straight possessions, but P Brian Moorman had some great punts. Finally the Packers start at midfield and a short drive leads to a long field goal.

Fourth Quarter: Buffalo's offense was dead in this game until the Packers defense gave them some life in this quarter. Why did CB Al Harris let WR Lee Evans run wide open behind him for an easy TD on a underthrown ball? The Packers have been doing this every week. At Miami, CB Charles Woodson let WR Marty Booker run by him and QB Joey Harrington threw it between 3 defenders who seemed confused who was covering Booker. CB Patrick Dendy let WR Troy Walters run wide open across the field against Arizona for a TD. Usually the cornerbacks are playing man-on-man, but sometimes they let receivers run away from them as if it were playing zone coverage and the safeties never show up in time. Are the safeties late in coverage? Are the cornerbacks playing the wrong defense? Are the coaches screwing up the signals or the defensive schemes? Just fix it. RBs Ahman Green and Noah Herron are running all over the Buffalo defense by this point, but McCarthy decides to throw one more slant pass into tight coverage. The cornerback is all over the receiver and a lucky bounce leads to a long interception return. Why throw a pass that they have been covering all game when you can run it right down their throat? A deflated defense comes back on the field and RB Anthony Thomas runs three times at DE KGB for another touchdown. I've been a big defender of KGB over the past few seasons, but he has to be taken out on running downs. He doesn't get to the quarterback like he used to and he isn't stopping the run either. Teams used to bull rush him for good yardage, but every other play he would get a step on the blocker and stop the running back. He doesn't do that anymore. He has to be reduced to a 3rd down rusher and let someone like DE Cullen Jenkins play on running downs. I skipped over DE Mike Montgomery, because he doesn't seem much better than KGB at run defense.

The Packers played their best game versus Arizona, but it apparently cost them two starters and RB Vernand Morency to injuries. CB Charles Woodson came back into the game and caught an interception after landing awkwardly on his left leg, so it is a little surprising that the injury has gotten worse and will keep him out. On the other hand, it is surprising Woodson has played so much this season considering his past struggles with injuries. CB Patrick Dendy, who gave up the only passing TD against Arizona, would take over for Woodson, and barely used CB Will Blackmon would become the nickel cornerback. Luckily Buffalo is coming playing washed up WR Peerless Price and underachieving WR Josh Reed against Dendy and Blackmon, while CB Al Harris will cover their only receiving threat WR Lee Evans.

Morency injured his back and FB Brandon Miree hyperextended his elbow against Arizona and neither is expected to play at Buffalo. Both players had arguably the best games of their careers against Arizona, so the injuries are bad timing for them both. Both players have capable backups at this point, FB William Henderson for Miree and RB Noah Herron for Morency. The Packers do need a 3rd running back, so RB P.J. Pope was signed from Chicago's practice squad. Pope had a nice college career, appears to be a pretty good receiver, and played a lot in the preseason for Chicago, so it wouldn't be surprising at all to see him involved in the offense at Buffalo for a few carries and a catch or two. Mike McCarthy seems to like rotating all three running backs during some part of the game each week. The Packers had to release backup C Chris White to sign Pope and now G Jason Spitz becomes the backup center. I don't recall ever seeing Spitz play at center during the preseason. If C Scott Wells did have to come out of a game, it would be better if Spitz slid over and G Tony Moll came in the game at guard. Hopefully LT Chad Clifton is over the injury that kept him out of the game in Miami and the loss of the depth White provided will not be a concern.

Packers 31, Arizona 14. The Packers first home win of the season and their best overall game of the season. The only negative is that it happened against the worst team in the NFL, especially after their collapse at home versus Chicago. Looking at the DVOA breakdown from Football Outsiders, the Packers moved a few spots on the rankings and their was a 9 place jump by special teams and a 7 place jump by the offense.

First Quarter: I don't have the stats, but there were a lot of passes thrown to WR Anquan Boldin, 4th in the NFL in receiving yards, and CB Al Harris was always covering him. Boldin ended with a decent 4 catches for 47 yards, but their offense seemed to stall with them unable to get the ball to Boldin and without WR Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. Harris played Boldin about as well as anybody could. The defense stopped Arizona, a rare quality punt return by CB Charles Woodson set up great field position, and then the whole effort was thrown out by a bizarre fake punt and run/sack of P Jon Ryan. Was he trying to throw to TE Bubba Franks? Was Franks trying to block? Did Bubba have any idea what was going on? It might have been Franks' fault or a completely botched play, but either way it should not be called again this season. Getting teams to fall for misdirection is very important to winning, but trying to be too cute (a bootleg pass attempt by a punter?) should not be done. When the Packers did get the ball back, two things happen that set the tone for the rest of the game. First, mostly runs on the left side between LT Chad Clifton and LG Daryn Colledge blocks, the Packers start dominating Arizona's defensive line. RB Vernand Morency and RB Ahman Green ran very well, and neither player fumbled, but the offensive line gave them a lot to work with. Second, after I wrote last week about how the tight ends and fullback seem to be forgotten members of the offense, QB Brett Favre threw a lot of passes to FB Brandon Miree and TE David Martin. The Packers did this all game; dominate Arizona's defensive line, no turnovers, and spread the ball around to different receivers.

Second Quarter: While the Packers offense dominates, Arizona's offense struggles. RB Edgerrin James had his best game as a Cardinal, but that is faint praise. He still only ran for 3.5 yards/carry. Arizona shuffled their offensive line and it gave QB Matt Leinart some time to throw and James some room to run. Still it took Arizona until 6 minutes left in the first half to put together their first decent drive that led to James' TD run. Leinart didn't have much help due to receivers running out of bounds (WR Bryant Johnson) and numerous dropped passes. Overall the defense looked great in this game, but other than QB Rex Grossman, it has been hard to look bad against Arizona this season.

Third Quarter: Just in case Arizona was feeling somewhat empowered after scoring right before halftime to cut the lead to 14 points, the Packers have a long drive to eat up the first 7 minutes of the third quarter, ending in Favre's first TD run since 2001, his first at home since 1998, and his first Lambeau Leap. Although Favre's TD run hurt Arizona, Arizona's answering TD pass was a sign of future (and past) trouble for the pass defense. WR Troy Walters ran wide open on a crossing route for a TD after CB Patrick Dendy let him go off the line of scrimmage. Dendy, and Woodson in previous games, seem to let receivers run away from them, like they are expecting help in the middle from the safeties. But the Packers are playing man-on-man coverage and shouldn't Dendy and Woodson always know that they have to stay with their receivers? It didn't matter in this game, but the Packers are really suspectable to crossing patterns that lead to big gains.

Fourth Quarter: The Packers ran the ball a lot, which made sense because they were dominating the line of scrimmage and wanted to run out the clock, while Arizona continued to struggle on offense. Arizona had a couple of 20+ yard plays, but for most of the game, Arizona had to slowly work their way down the field, which isn't easy with a poor offensive line.