Packers Make A Move In Free Agency: Sign TE Jared Cook

I was just writing about the Green Bay Packers' underwhelming 2016 free agent period and they go out and sign TE Jared Cook to a one-year deal that worth $3.6 million only if he reaches certain incentives. While I'm still disappointed they didn't re-sign WR James Jones, Cook brings an element to the offense that's been missing since TE Jermichael Finley retired.

The @Packers made a move in free agency!

And he'll bring some of THIS to that offense. 👇👇👇 https://t.co/uPTFLhYNML

— NFL (@NFL) March 28, 2016

The deep ball down the seam is one thing, but he'll be a difficult match-up in the middle of the field because he's too big for slot cornerbacks and too quick for most linebackers. He's been a disappointment with both the Titans and Rams over the last several seasons, but he's still under 30 and he's never played alongside a good NFL quarterback. Arguably the best QB he's ever played with was Matt Hasselbeck in 2011. Now he'll get a one-year prove-it contract while catching passes from a two-time MVP. There's nothing but upside for both the team and player.

And once again GM Ted Thompson shows the NFL how free agency is done. It's crazy that teams can't first meet with players signed right at the start of free agency. The Packers waited out the initial frenzy and then scheduled a visit with Cook to get to know a player, which was a very good idea because Cook's underperformed in the past and they probably didn't know what he'd be like in the locker room. They gave him a couple weeks to figure out his options and let him discover that the Packers were his best choice, and they acquire a player at a fraction of the price that a similar player (TE Coby Fleener) signed for with the Saints.

As a bonus, signing Cook won't cost the Packers any compensatory draft picks because the Rams released Cook and players released by their former teams don't count in the calculation. The Packers had cap room available to sign another player, and they got a younger player with upside on an affordable one-year deal. There's nothing not to like here.

Recapping The Packers 2016 Free Agent Period

The NFL free agent period is rarely an exciting time for GM Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers, and 2016 has been no exception. Extending DT Mike Daniels was the most important task they could have accomplished, and they did it back in 2015, but I'm still left more disappointed than usual. There were some notable free agent departures and they'll be looking to find replacements, and depth, at those positions in April's draft.

Mike McCarthy confirmed the Packers are moving on from WR James Jones. He praised him for being "such a class... https://t.co/Z6qumLVpIV

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 22, 2016

WR James Jones. Maybe Jones's agent was talking about a $4 million per season Jermaine Kearse type contract, which I would never expect them (nor should they) agree to. But Jones signed for under $1 million twice last season (first with the Giants and then the Packers) so he's probably not looking for a big deal. He finished 2015 as the 20th best receiver in the NFL according to Football Outsiders and he was the team's best receiver by a mile, so asking him to return in 2016 as a $1 million insurance policy looked like a no-brainer, even if he loses the battle in camp this summer to WR Jeff Janis and/or Jared Abbrederis. Yes, WR Jordy Nelson will be back, Janis and Abbrederis should continue to improve, and Jones might not have been necessary. But he was absolutely necessary in 2015 and he wouldn't have broken the bank. I'm also not mentioning WR Davante Adams, who the team appears to have faith in, though I don't. I'd have made re-signing Jones a priority if he's still available in the $1 million range.

DTs B.J. Raji, Letroy Guion, and Mike Pennel. Pennel wasn't a free agent but his upcoming four game suspension should factor into their 2016 plans. But I don't think they expected Raji to walk away from football. Mike McCarthy thinks Raji will return some day but I'm less sure about it because football doesn't seem to be the most important thing in his life. Good for him, but that won't help the Packers much in 2016. That leaves the middle of their line anchored by Guion and Daniels, and a couple other guys who've never played meaningful NFL snaps. DT Josh Boyd will also return, but he was never very good and he's now coming off a season ending injury. I'm worried that some teams will be able to run right over the defense next season.

LB Mike Neal. The Packers want to move LB Clay Matthews back outside next season and they did re-sign LB Nick Perry, so this seems like a good time to let Neal find another NFL home. I've never been his biggest fan so I'm glad they're looking to find someone better than him. But he was 5th on the team with 734 defensive snaps last season so they have to replace him with somebody, and I have no idea who that somebody will be. LB Sam Barrington will return but you never know what a player is like after a season ending injury. LBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas should continue to improve while platooning as a run stuffing and pass covering inside linebacker combo. Also, former disappointments LB Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford remain on the roster. The Packers have a lot of draft choices in the upcoming draft and they're sure to draft at least one linebacker, but they haven't had the best track record of developing inside linebackers. The loss of Raji and Pennel up front, along with Matthews moving back outside from inside, has left the middle of their defense looking like a giant question mark heading into 2016.

CB Casey Hayward. The Packers really didn't need Hayward anymore. The Chargers are paying him $5 million per season starting in 2016 and he might have been challenged for playing time with the Packers by CB Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Also, former 5th round pick CB Demetri Goodson is in the mix. But letting a solid player like Hayward go for only a future 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick seems like a poor value. Hayward is a good player now, and that future draft choice is only maybe a good player someday. They've given up something without getting enough back, while at the same time the defense is taking a step back at tackle and inside linebacker.

I'm just not feeling the power of young players when a few of them disappointed last season at key positions like receiver and linebacker. That's the way the Packers work and free agency isn't the answer for most teams, but it's still left me underwhelmed with their offseason plans while I wait for them to re-load in the upcoming draft.

Tolzien To Colts, Hundley To No. 2, and Two More 4th Round Picks

The 2015 preseason featured three of the better backup quarterback auditions I've seen in any preseason for the Green Bay Packers. The offense scored points with either QB Scott Tolzien or QB Brett Hundley under center, and Hundley's accuracy and athleticism stood out. But Hundley hasn't played in a football game in several months, so I wasn't sure if the Packers were ready to part with Tolzien. But apparently they are, and it's probably a good decision because Hundley looked ready to play last preseason.

QB Scott Tolzien is heading to the Colts: https://t.co/pxKRgokR5U pic.twitter.com/UPJeIoQoWT

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) March 11, 2016

I can't recall another tweet from the Packers official twitter account when a free agent leaves Green Bay. Apparently Tolzien was well well liked within the organization and they're wishing him well.

It was also reported that they received two fourth round draft choices for losing CB Tramon Williams and CB Davon House to free agency last year. I'd have been supportive if they had re-signed either of them last season, but to gain two 4th round draft picks is very sweet. I doubt the Packers could have traded either one of them for a selection that high, had they still been under contract.

#Packers get two 4th rd compensatory picks. Among 4th rd'ers under Ted: Daniels, Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari, Tretter, Poppinga, Blackmon, Ryan.

— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) March 11, 2016

It's Depressing To See The Packers Re-Sign LB Nick Perry

It's important not to get swept up in NFL's free agency, watching it as some teams instantly transform themselves with major signings or departures. It's usually fool's gold, most teams will regret half of these contracts a year from now, and they'll be looking to dump their new players just like the Eagles did with CB Byron Maxwell. Or RB DeMarco Murray, for anything they can get.

So re-signing your own players at a reasonable price is a good way to go.

#Packers are signing back LB Nick Perry on a 1-year deal, source said (as @TomSilverstein reported). They declined his option but kept him

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 11, 2016

And there's nothing wrong with re-signing Perry. He wasn't bad last season and their thin linebacking corps looks even worse now that they've given up on Andy Mulumba, so keeping some of their depth from last season is important. And he's a great value signing. A one-year deal comes with no possibility of dead money in a future year (unless he can't even make the team out of training camp, which seems highly unlikely) and they saved themselves a couple million by declining his 5th-year option at $7.75 million and re-signing him for $5 million. They let him test the market, he found little (none?) interest, and they were willing to give him another chance.

But this is a really depressing move. Perry's not a bust, but he's been a disappointment. He's struggled to stay healthy, he's struggled to earn playing time, and his pass rushing skills vanished last season. He does nothing to make them any better next season, unless he magically puts it all together in 2016. I have no idea what they have in mind for him next season after he barely played in 2015 while they gave his potential playing time to Mike Neal, who did little to earn it either. $5 million from GM Ted Thompson for a backup seems rich for him, so I'm expecting they're going to use Perry as a starter next season (assuming Clay Matthews remains inside). But if he wasn't good enough to start in 2015 then what's changed now?

Maybe this is an area they plan on focusing on in the draft, and they just needed a one-year starter they could rely on for one season. They've been good enough over the past two seasons to hang with the top two-through-five teams in the NFC, so maybe trying to keep the current team together as best they can and hope it all comes together in 2016 is their plan. But it's not an exciting one.

NFL Free Agency Opens With The Usual Silence From The Packers

UPDATE: Actually it looks like the Bears had one of the best free agent signings with Trevathan. Signing a linebacker for $6 million per season who can stay on the field for every down is a good move. He might have been more motivated to work with the Bears and his old HC John Fox than he would have been with the Packers.

It also looks Forte signed for less than I expected but even at $4 million per season, if the Packers were going to make one splash in free agency, I'd rather they spent it on a linebacker or to re-sign Hayward over a backup running back.

Do you remember the good old days of 2014 when GM Ted Thompson made a splash in free agency? The past is in the past, and so far the Packers have only made one free agent move this week.

The #Packers signed G Lane Taylor to a 2-year deal worth $4.15M, source said. He gets $600K guaranteed.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 8, 2016

At first, it didn't seem like a good idea to give a backup a two-year deal, but the guaranteed money isn't much and he's currently the lowest paid player on the roster who isn't still playing under his rookie contract. They trusted Taylor to start two games last season, and they obviously liked what they saw. Offensive line depth around the NFL is very shallow, once you get beyond every team's top six lineman your probably looking at a player who's a future revolving door, so keeping a player who's good enough to start is valuable.

The only big name free agent that seemed to be rumored to have drawn any interest from the Packers was RB Matt Forte, but he's going to the Big Apple.

Believe #Jets signed Matt Forte for approx $2M less than Chris Ivory leaving for in JAX and Todd Bowles gets better pass game contributor

— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) March 9, 2016

That should put Forte's new deal at around $6 million per season. That's not crazy money, Forte wouldn't be in the top 10 cap charges on the Packers' 2016 roster, but adding him would be a luxury if they're planning on sticking with RB Eddie Lacy as the starter next season. The Packers always carry forward some cap space into the next season, so a hypothetical Forte signing would probably only leave the Packers with about $5 million of cap space they'd like to use. That might not even be enough to re-sign NT B.J. Raji and would end any hope of a free agent upgrade at inside linebacker, and those are two positions I'd rather see upgraded before adding an extra running back. Plus, they'd be giving up on the chance to re-sign CB Casey Hayward (which might not be happening anyway).

Unfortunately I don't know who that magical inside linebacker might be that they can use their free agent dollars on. ILB Danny Trevathan is great but he's going to get overpaid by the Bears. After Trevathan, the free agent class features a number of veterans you'd hope could stay healthy (Derrick Johnson, Stephen Tulloch) or you hope can rebound from a disappointing season(s) (Bruce Carter). So basically no one that would look like a difference maker.

So the silence that began the 2016 free agent period will probably continue for a while.

Hey Quarterback, Does Hand Size Really Matter?

Among quarterback, one advantage that Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre have/had over their peers is that they've got big hands. As you might expect, it helps in bad weather games to be able to grip the football, and Rodgers has said that he's been blessed with some pretty big hands.

This all came up recently at the NFL combine because Cal's QB Jared Goff could be the first quarterback drafted in April and there were concerns before he measured up with nine-inch hands. This might have been specific to Goff because he notably was benched during a 2013 game (sheets of rain were coming down) because he couldn't hold onto the football. So having big hands that grip a football probably helps avoid fumbles and it might even help with QB accuracy.

But it doesn't help with the other 99 things a quarterback has to do like read defenses, checkdown receivers at the right times, audibles, leadership, etc. etc., so it isn't a sign that someone is going to be great just because he has meat hooks. But it also looks like you can't have average size hands and expect to be a starting NFL quarterback.

NFL QB hand size chart for those wanting to compare while you’re supposed to be working pic.twitter.com/C4ug6Ra3kG

— Busted Coverage (@bustedcoverage) February 25, 2016

How The Packers Defensive Line Will Look Next Season Without Mike Pennel

It was announced last week that the Green Bay Packers will be without DT Mike Pennel for at least the first four games of the 2016 season because he violated the NFL's substance abuse program.

What does Mike Pennel's suspension mean for the Packers' off-season decisions, such as resigning B.J. Raji? https://t.co/4VxYqLZ4Q9

— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) February 20, 2016

After the defense put together a terrible 2013 season, Mike McCarthy made some changes that brought more versatility to the group. One change was the departure of NT Ryan Pickett and B.J. Raji was switched from end to NT. They also brought in free agents Letroy Guion and Julius Peppers, and Peppers in particular brought a lot more versatility with him. Often during that 2013 season, the Packers looked slow up front when Raji and Pickett were lined up together, and those changes gave the defense more options.

In 2015, Raji and Pennel played on 444 and 287 snaps, respectively, and they rarely lined up together, so the defense only had one tackle at least 30% of the time. While the NT isn't very important to their defense, they still need a couple of big bodies for the goal line.

With Datone Jones likely moving to outside linebacker next season, it seems like the Packers have abandoned the idea of having any defensive ends at all. Apparently it's all tackles and outside linebackers going forward. That would fit with their goal of versatility because their linebackers can be defensive ends on passing downs, effectively using a 4-3 defensive scheme.

They probably need only four defensive tackles next season. Daniels and Guion have already been re-signed, and Pennel should return after his suspension (assuming he makes the team). DT Josh Boyd should be healthy after a season ending ankle injury, though he's never been very good, and rookie DT Christian Ringo made a "big-time" jump last season. Re-signing Raji might push Boyd or Ringo out of their plans, or maybe Guion will replace Raji since Guion's legal problems appear to be over. In any case, it doesn't look like they have a need for an outside free agent or high draft choice. Maybe a late draft choice like USC's Antwaun Woods could provide some depth. Woods might be a good fit because he doesn't have a history of injuries and he hustles, and he could play the same role that Ringo did last season on the practice squad.

While Pennel's suspension doesn't help them next season, it doesn't look like they'll have to adjust their offseason plans in free agency or the draft to make up for his absence either.

The Packers Shouldn't Be Tripping Over Themselves To Re-Sign Their Defensive Free Agents, Except...

The Packers have already re-signed and extended two potential free agent defensive lineman, but there are other defenders who played significant roles in 2015 that could become unrestricted free agents next month.

Player	Position	Age	PFF Grade	2015 Snaps
Casey Hayward	CB	26	5.2	1020
Mike Neal	LB	28	-12.7	822
Nick Perry	LB	25	3.1	365
B.J. Raji	NT	29	-4.6	472
Sean Richardson	S	26	-0.8	98

And of those players, there's only one that'll draw significant attention in free agency.

#Packers Hayward Earning Big Payday, Too - Even without an interception, Casey Hayward has been productive for ... https://t.co/BY7sVtyXYP

— Packers on Scout (@PackersOnScout) December 14, 2015

I'm a fan of CB Casey Hayward. Looking only at conventional stats, he underwhelmed with no interceptions and only 7 pass defenses in 2015. But that's a sign that teams don't throw at him despite him being on the field all the time (see 1020 snaps in 2015 above), and the advance stats like him, having earned a grade of 5.2 from Pro Football Focus last season. Maybe he wasn't targeted because the Packers relied heavily on two rookie cornerbacks last season, and most teams went after the rookies instead, but this wasn't Hayward's first good season. He's been a reliable player ever since he was drafted in 2012, and other teams are going to notice. While teams are burned badly by free agent cornerbacks every year, they always seem to spend irrationally every March. I'm sure GM Ted Thompson will make Hayward an offer but I think Hayward will get more from another cornerback desperate team.

This is LB Mike Neal's second run through unrestricted free agency. He drew little interest back in 2014 and he hasn't done anything to improve his worth since then. But he shouldn't cost too much and the Packers might prefer the limited player they know (see Guion, Letroy) rather than the unknown player they'd have to find to replace him. It's not important to re-sign him but I won't be upset if they do.

While LB Nick Perry is the only defender other than Hayward listed here with a positive PFF grade, his positive grade was from his run support, not his pass rush. The irony is that Perry entered the NFL with a reputation as a great pass rusher at USC and a complete unknown as a run defender. He's obviously worked hard to improve the weakest part of his game. Unfortunately his best skill (pass rush) has either stalled or vanished last season. The Packers declined his fifth-year option last year and he didn't do much to prove them wrong. Whether it was due to injuries or a lack of trust, the former 1st round pick only logged 365 snaps at outside linebacker when there wasn't any serious competition blocking his path to more playing time. I would guess that the Packers might be willing to give him a one-year contract to provide depth, but maybe another team will be more aggressive on giving him a fresh start and seeing if they can find the talent that made him a top prospect.

Like Neal, this is not NT B.J. Raji's first go around as an unrestricted free agent, and he's drawn little interest from other teams in the past. He didn't do much to stand out last season, but if they don't re-sign him then they'll absolutely have to find someone else like him. With $23 million of room available under the cap, there's no reason to go cheap on the defensive line. While Raji could be replaced, his position needs to be filled, and only the Jets's NT Damon Harrison is clearly a better free agent who might be available. GM Ted Thompson will spend for a star player but Harrison doesn't look like that type of player. The Packers know what they've got with Raji as a run stuffer (even if he's becoming a bit injury prone) and that's probably better than spinning the draft roulette wheel.

Unfortunately this is probably the end of DB Sean Richardson's career.

In the end, other than Hayward (the Packers have depth at CB if he leaves) they should probably push to re-sign Neal, Perry and Raji because they should be affordable and they'd leave holes on the roster if they departed. And the Packers already need to add another inside linebacker (or two) and need more depth at every offensive skill position. This team is good enough now to win a championship and they should try and keep it all together, as best as they can.

The Packers Re-Signed Letroy Guion For Reasons...

UPDATE: The contract only has $500K in guaranteed money, which was probably something Guion had to do because of his past history of arrest and suspension. It still doesn't change the fact that the Packers are counting on him in 2016 because they have few in-house options. But at least if he is a bust next season, then they can move on from him at little cost.

This free agent period has already been a success for the Green Bay Packers because they re-signed DT Mike Daniels back in December. His possible departure was the only move that would make or break them. He has been one of their best draft picks, but overall the Packers have done a terrible job of drafting defensive tackles in recent years.

This seems to be a blind spot for GM Ted Thompson, who got off to a bad start by selecting Justin Harrell in the 1st round of the 2007 draft, and followed that up with some other notably misses; such as Jerel Worthy in 2012 and Khyri Thornton in 2014. His only other success was B.J. Raji, who's had an up-and-down career and might be leaving in free agency this offseason.

That lack of depth at defensive tackle explains why Letroy Guion was one of the few outside free agents they've signed in recent years, and explains why he'd get a three-year, $4 million per season contract.

ICYMI: The #Packers re-signed DT Letroy Guion on Friday: https://t.co/zC6Ml3cyde pic.twitter.com/OVtFchqEDU

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) February 13, 2016

In a bubble, there's no great reason to re-sign Guion. He was arrested for felony possession this time last year and was suspended for three games. While he wasn't bad in 2015, he wasn't great either, and Walter Football gave this signing a C grade (a lot of money for an OK rotational lineman). But he's a run stuffer, and GM Ted Thompson has placed somewhat of a premium on veteran run stuffers (he paid NT Ryan Pickett a lot of money over his Packer career).

But it also goes to show that the Packers don't have a lot of depth at DT. Mike Pennel has been a pleasant surprise as an undrafted free agent, and Josh Boyd should return from his broken ankle, but that's all they currently have to play alongside Daniels next season. The Packers rotate their defensive lineman a lot and don't always have a defensive tackle on the field, but they do need more players than just those four. Even if B.J. Raji is also re-signed, they'll still probably draft a defensive tackle at some point next April (though it might turn out to be another bust).

So keeping the player you know, who can do what you need him to do, even if the price is a little steep, makes sense. The unfortunate bit is that the Packers haven't done well drafting defensive tackles in the past, which is why they needed him in the first place. And overpaying Guion now might explain why they aren't as aggressive later in free agency.

Will Julius Peppers Play For The Packers In 2016?

The Green Bay Packers should be very happy to have LB Julius Peppers back in 2016. Despite his recent Pro Bowl appearance, Peppers didn't have as much impact in 2015 as he did in 2014 but it's hard to see that as the sign of his imminent decline.

While his sack total was up (10.5 in 2015 from 7 in 2014) several other stats were down, but his 2014 and 2015 seasons are both comparable to past seasons stretching back to his time with the Panthers and Bears. His career stats are about as consistent from season-to-season as any player you're likely to find, and he's only missed 2 games since 2002! Though he just turned 36 years old, an age that should place major question marks on any non-QB/non-kicker, Peppers is an amazing, consistent star who is an exception to those rules.

So the fact that Adam Schefter wrote a line in his most recent column that Peppers may have already played his final NFL game is big concern.

NFL's five biggest off-season storylines:https://t.co/WkeAeqs0FF

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 4, 2016

It's a little surprising to read that from Schefter when there was a different report earlier this week suggesting that Peppers would play again in 2016 even if the Packers release him.

Just looking at Peppers by himself, he's a still a great player and worth the $8 million cap charge he'll cost next season. The lone advantage in releasing him now would be to use that cap space on a younger player in free agency, but I generally hate free agency and his release would also cost them a $2.5 million cap charge in dead money. The Packers currently have around $21 million in cap space so creating cap space is not a big need.

But when you look at the state of the roster without Peppers, his release would leave their roster without any quality linebackers other than Clay Matthews. Nick Perry and Mike Neal are both unrestricted free agents, and neither one is a priority to re-sign. Who knows how Sam Barrington will be after missing almost the entire 2015 season with injury. Some combination of Jake Ryan, Joe Thomas and Nate Palmer might be useful as a backup (maybe Ryan has potential next season as a starter) but that's a thin bench. Pro Football Focus listed linebacker as the Packers' number one need this offseason, and despite the recent report that coach Mike McCarthy is "fed-up" with the Packers' approach in free agency, it's unlikely that GM Ted Thompson will be aggressive in that area. It'll be important to keep valuable linebackers like Peppers, and draft a couple more options this April too.

T.J. Lang Had His Best Season While Playing With Two Bad Shoulders

This might not be the last story we read this offseason about a Green Bay Packer offensive lineman who is having surgery, every starting offensive lineman missed at least some time last season with an injury, but today's its about RG T.J. Lang.

Shoulder surgery finally a reality for Packers guard T.J. Lang https://t.co/A1xlwALJKd

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) February 2, 2016

The only criticism that can be leveled against Lang this season is that he missed one game because of injury. Otherwise he was one of the team's best players. This season, he received the highest grade of his career from Pro Football Focus, who also graded him as the 4th best guard overall last season (just behind Zack Martin of the Cowboys and just ahead of his teammate Josh Sitton).

He'll have a reasonable $6.1 million cap charge next season, his final one before he can become a free agent in 2017. Next season will be his eight NFL season and GM Ted Thompson isn't known for re-signing players into their 30s (Lang will turn 30 during the 2017 season), and the wear-and-tear is starting to show, though Lang has only missed two starts in the past five seasons. It'll be interesting to watch how he recovers and plays next season.

Aaron Rodgers Had Minor Knee Surgery

After the Green Bay Packers beat the Redskins in the playoff Wild Card game, I looked back through the injury report to see when QB Aaron Rodgers had last been listed because something was wrong with him. Yes, his receivers were playing poorly and his offensive line was a disaster (at times) but he was also missing throws that he previously didn't miss. Against the Redskins, after completing his first attempt to WR James Jones, he was incomplete on his next seven attempts. Missing seven straight pass attempts for an NFL QB is rare these days, and I can't ever remember Rodgers going through such a bad streak. I thought he must still be playing through that right shoulder injury, though it hadn't been listed in weeks.

Now all teams stink at disclosing injuries, Mike Florio's been on them about this for years, and it looks like the Packers were part of the club. Maybe it was the combination of a sore shoulder and knee that messed up his accuracy, but his injured knee had to be the main suspect if it required surgery shortly after the end of the season.

Wonder if this Week 10 hit (which was flagged) ultimately led to Aaron Rodgers knee surgery https://t.co/VWimaKdV6X pic.twitter.com/MGje35hC14

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) February 1, 2016

The good news is that this doesn't seem to be a big deal. He'll be fully recovered and participating in the team's offseason program when it starts in April. The bad news is that this is the third season in a row where a mid-season injury (2013-collarbone, 2014-calf, 2015-knee/shoulder) took away a lot of what makes Aaron Rodgers a great quarterback. And, unfortunately, this is something that should be expected to continue each season now that he's over age 30 (he turned 32 in December).

About Mike McCarthy Being "Fed Up" With GM Ted Thompson

There were a few times last season when I wondered if it would have helped if the Green Bay Packers had targeted a free agent or two, on a veteran's minimum contract, who might have helped out at some positions. Notably, the Arizona Cardinals had some success with low-priced veterans like RB Chris Johnson and DE Dwight Freeney in 2015. Apparently Bob McGinn has learned that coach Mike McCarthy was wondering the same thing.

Report: Mike McCarthy is fed up with Packers management refusing to sign free agents https://t.co/KDYJ9mqf7k

— Deadspin (@Deadspin) January 24, 2016

It's hard to get too worked up over this report because in some ways it's old news. It reminds me of when almost everyone was upset that Thompson didn't pull the trigger in 2010 on a trade for RB Marshawn Lynch. Thompson turned out to be right in the sense that the Packers didn't need Lynch that season to win the Super Bowl, but Lynch would have still been worth whatever it would have taken to acquire him (the Bills gave up a 4th and a 5th round pick for him).

I wouldn't be surprised if McCarthy is looking for new answers after another playoff loss on the final play of the game. Having a veteran TE, a veteran DB, or a veteran ILB (instead of rotating Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas Jr.) might have made a small difference, but it could have turned one or two close losses this season into wins. Having no reliable inside LB other than Clay Matthews might have been his biggest regret because Bob McGinn specifically mentions the availability of ILB Mason Foster, who signed with the Redskins.

On the other hand, the NFL free agent market is a minefield. A healthy free agent who might be an average NFL player can command a bust-worthy multi-year contract while the true superstar who hits the market will get a cap crushing deal.

Typically the players who receiver one-year contracts aren't good or haven't been healthy for a while. Foster's a minor success story but other teams handed out one-year contracts to former Packer ILBs Desmond Bishop (released in early September) and Jamari Lattimore (played only on special teams for the Jets) without finding a starting caliber ILB. The Jets did well with ILB Erin Henderson, who could only get a one-year deal after a string of drinking and driving arrests ended his Vikings career, but obviously not every player with a checkered past is able to put it behind them. The Vikings signed Casey Matthews to compete at inside LB but he was hurt before the season even began. Signing a veteran on a one-year contract is much more likely to be a bust than even a mild success.

It's an odd time for this story to come out, on one hand, because this is the season that the Packers did sign WR James Jones to a one-year contract after his release from the Giants, and WR Jordy Nelson was lost for the year. I'm not sure any team in the NFL this season had a better one-year, unrestricted free agent signing than Jones. It's too bad he couldn't have played inside linebacker too.

McCarthy is used to having a deep bench to call on. The lack of depth at offensive tackle and inside linebacker were obvious, and the failure of WR Davante Adams to develop was disappointing, but these things don't always work out. The big takeaway for me in from Bob McGinn's article is that the Packers have really high standards, and if nothing less than a Super Bowl season is a disappointment, then you feel the same way as coach McCarthy.

Packers Disappoint At Running Back, Tight End, and Two Coaches Pay The Price

It's always hard to move onto the next offseason after the last game of the prior season, but Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy moved on quickly, at least as far as his coaching staff was concerned.

The Packers it official: they have fired RB coach Sam Gash and TE coach Jerry Fontenot. Or as the team said they have "parted ways."

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) January 19, 2016

The one thing both coaches had in common; the position players under their wings under-performed during 2015. McCarthy did confirm that he will call the plays next season (it's hard for any boss to give up control) and he said would change the structure of the coaching staff. Maybe there's more changes ahead or maybe the firing of Gash and Fontenot is it. I'm sure he had his reasons for the firings, he hasn't been one to make a lot of changes to his staff every year (and usually not this quickly after the season), but I'm not expecting it'll make a big difference in 2016.

The draft is coming up, in almost 100 days (a lot of draft talk lies ahead...) but first free agency is up next. Usually, if GM Ted Thompson has not re-signed an unrestricted free agents before the end of the season, he doesn't re-sign them. But there's always an exception or two. In the big picture, only four of their unrestricted free agents had a positive score according to Pro Football Focus in 2015 (K Mason Crosby, CB Casey Hayward, LB Nick Perry and WR James Jones) so there is no vital unrestricted free agent that must be re-signed for 2016.

Crosby should be expected back, but he might not be re-signed until March when it's seen what other kickers are earning. Hayward had the highest grade of the four, but he was the 4th highest rated defensive back in 2015, which is a sign that it's a strong unit and maybe not Hayward specifically. He should also be the free agent who attracts the most attention from other teams. Perry had a good grade too but primarily for his run defense (not his pass rushing) which makes him less appealing. They have a bigger need for edge pass rushers than they do for another run defender. Jones obviously had a lot of value in 2015 but he's exactly the type of player that GM Ted Thompson usually lets go in free agency (as he did after the 2013 season). Maybe Jones has so little value to every other team, and the Packers would like the insurance he provides, that a low cost, one-year contract can be worked out.

Packers Playoff Loss: Still Taking It All In

[UPDATE: While I picked on Hayward below it appears that CB Damarious Randall was to blame for the blown coverage.] CB Casey Hayward is soon to become a free agent. While he's a good player, he seems to make mistakes that might give the front office pause on whether he's a keeper. DE Mike Daniels already got his mid-season extension but unless Hayward isn't in demand (which seems unlikely since CBs have been getting paid in free agency) I don't see the Packers re-signing him. It's plays like the opening one in OT, when WR Larry Fitzgerald deployed a cloaking device and ran right past him, that makes me wonder.

How did Larry Fitzgerald end up so wide open on the first play of overtime? "We blew a call," Packers cornerback... https://t.co/GcvUnVscYY

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) January 17, 2016

It's been a struggle on offense this season (QB Aaron Rodgers does need a healthy offensive line, which he finally got in the playoffs, and a deep roster of receivers) but these two Hail Mary plays, side-by-side show how he's made up for some of it. It's also interesting that both defenses played it completely different. The Lions took a lot of criticism for defending a series of laterals that never came, instead of the Hail Mary, and they didn't bring much pressure because they were expecting the short pass. The Cardinals, instead, brought the house and got into Rodgers's face immediately, and they only dropped four into coverage. Rodgers spun away from the rush and still managed to throw the pass he needed anyway. Two different defensive schemes to the same scenario, but Rodgers made the result the same.

I'm all for taking risks, and understood why Bruce Arians passed late in the game when he could have run out the clock. If the Cardinals had completed that fade pass to Fitzgerald, then the game was over. But the Cardinals were the favorites and they've been the better team all season, so they could have taken the lower percentage path to victory (and probably won in regulation, if they'd wiped out another 35 seconds). The Packers, on the other hand, could have gone for the two point conversion to end the game before OT. I understand the math and the Packers probably had a better chance of converting then rather than winning in OT, but it's a one-and-done scenario. Instead of giving his team a few chances to make a big play in OT, Mike McCarthy would have gave them just one. Unfortunately, the secondary blew the coverage in their first opportunity to make a play in OT, but McCarthy made the right call for the extra point. He should give his team more than one chance to win, though Bill Barnwell below explains why he thinks McCarthy should have gone for two.

Ultra-rare (first?) Sunday morning column today on why Bruce Arians was right and Mike McCarthy was wrong yesterday https://t.co/iIIIvf019R

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 17, 2016

The Packers' 2015 Season Ends Like The 2014 Season, With An Overtime Loss At An NFC North Opponent, Cardinals Win 26-20

The Green Bay Packers defense gave them a chance in this game, and they didn't let the team down until they allowed two late TD drives which gave the Cardinals the lead in the 4th quarter and then gave them the win in OT. It was better than the offense could do. Outside of a long run by RB Eddie Lacy, the Packers' rushing attack wasn't much of a help. With WR Randall Cobb injured early, and WR James Jones shut out by CB Patrick Peterson, their top two receivers caught zero passes. But three big completions to WR Jeff Janis for two touchdowns gave them just enough offense to force OT. It was a wild ride, starting with a dumb luck, ricochet TD pass to WR Michael Floyd.

WATCH: Michael Floyd's tipped-pass catch gives Cardinals late lead on Packers https://t.co/XdbQUbwO5w pic.twitter.com/r5l0vEMnSI

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 17, 2016

Then QB Aaron Rodgers answered with an amazing Hail Mary pass to WR Jeff Janis for the tie.

Hail Mary 2.0! #GBvsAZ #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/6NvBoD1x7p

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 17, 2016

But a 75 yard pass play to start OT, when the Packers' pass rush doesn't quite get to QB Carson Palmer, ends their season.

This is the play before The Play after The Other Play: Larry Fitzgerald starts OT with a 75-yard catch #BeRedSeeRed https://t.co/PQIxOy1FMX

— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2016

It was a great season, and an amazing run considering QB Aaron Rodgers played this game without his expected top 3 receivers (Nelson, Cobb, Adams) and had no passing yards to his best remaining receiver (Jones), but they were so close, just like last season, and you never know when the opportunity might come again.

Packers Need To Dominate In The Air, Not On The Ground

Pro Football Focus is a great resource but I don't agree with them in this week's article previewing the Green Bay Packers playoff game in Arizona that the Packers can win if they run the ball.

Everything you need to know for Packers-Cardinals https://t.co/pWV44dybeH #PFF

— Brandon Benson (@AcmeBrandon) January 15, 2016

The Cardinals have the 2nd best run defense this season according to Football Outsiders, and the Packers haven't shown the ability to consistently run the ball. The Cardinals' strong run defense might be exaggerated because their opponents were forced to throw to keep up with the Cards' offense but the Packers aren't the team to take advantage of it. Injuries to the offensive line and RB Eddie Lacy's ribs have taken all of the steam out of the ground game's engine this season.

One very good point is about QB Aaron Rodgers's accuracy. Bryson Vesnaver wrote at Pro Footbal Focus that Rodgers struggled against Washington without any pressure "completing just 58.6 percent of his passes...when in a clean pocket." I'm spoiled as a Packer fan but Rodgers's accuracy has been below his usual levels this season. He was especially bad early in the game, missing open receivers, but he was much better by the second quarter. But instead of emphasizing the ground game over the passing game, this means that Rodgers has got to get his accuracy back to near perfection. With the offensive line as healthy as it's going to get, the pass protection was at it's best against the Redskins.

#Packers offensive line was responsible for only 5 pressures on 41 dropbacks Sunday. Key to offensive revival.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 12, 2016

It's more likely that Rodgers will have a perfect game than Lacy will shake his 2015 season slump. They'll win by leaning heavily on Aaron Rodgers.

To Beat The Cardinals; Aaron Rodgers Is Going To Have To Be Great

There's no other way to look at it; the Green Bay Packers are the statistically weakest 2015 team still in the playoffs and they have the hardest road to the Super Bowl.

ICYMI: Ranking the paths to the Super Bowl by difficulty for each remaining team https://t.co/hW9HXLQoA7

— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 11, 2016

It's useful to look back at the Packers' 2010 season (2011 playoffs) when they went on a road playoff run and advanced to the Super Bowl. But that was a different team, which never trailed by more than seven points at any time during the 2010 season and might have been the greatest 10-6 team in NFL history. They were the 4th highest rated team of 2010 according to Football Outsiders, and the best remaining team in the NFC after they beat the Eagles that year in the Wild Card game. The 2015 Packers don't have a lot in common with them.

The 2015 Packers' best comparison is the 2012 Ravens, which was the 9th best team of 2012 according to FO, and won the championship behind the arm of QB Joe Flacco. He was OK that regular season (ESPN QBR of 49.2, which was dragged down by two disastrous losses vs. the Texans and Broncos) but he outplayed nearly every statistically measurement during the playoffs (11 TDs and 0 INTs in 4 playoff games). QB Aaron Rodgers has been better during the 2015 regular season in almost every way compared to Flacco v.2012, and he had one of his best games of the season against the Redskins last week. Now he's going to have to do it again while also improving on the lowly 5.83 ypa he had during that Wild Card game.

There's no good way to look back and see any positives from the 38-8 beating the Packers had pasted on them by the Cardinals three weeks ago. The upgrade to Tretter (if Bakhtiari is still out with an ankle injury) over LT Don "revolving door" Barclay will make them much more competitive. While he had a good game against the Redskins, WR Davante Adams has been a problem all season and his MCL injury might provide a boost to the Packers' offense by giving more reps to WR Jared Abbrederis. But those are marginal improvements and not enough to overcome a 30 point difference. The Packers (Rodgers in particular) are going to have to play their best.

The Cardinals are a great team, and they're about as good in 2015 as the Packers were in their 2010 when they were on their way to the Super Bowl, but they're not without their flaws. Rodgers played great against the Redskins because his pass protection was solid. The Cardinals were outstanding at getting after Rodgers three weeks ago, but the benching of Barclay alone makes a big difference and the Cardinals aren't the best at pressuring the QB. They also lost two defensive players to injury over their bye week and were forced to sign LB Jason Babin to provide some depth for Saturday's game. Neither of the two players lost to injury (Okafor and Redding) are defensive cornerstones but it's a sign that the Cardinals don't have much of a pass rush outside of DE Calais Campbell.

There's no statistical advantage the Packers are bringing to their next playoff game; they're going to have to play their best game of the season if they want to beat the Cardinals on Saturday.

2015 Wild Card: Packers Beat Redskins in D.C. 35-18

The first 17 minutes of their playoff game felt like a lot of recent Green Bay Packer games. The offense couldn't get anything going, and the pass protection was letting QB Aaron Rodgers down (new starting LT JC Tretter was bull rushed for a sack and safety in the 1st quarter). At that point it was Redskins 11, Packers 0, and it should have been even worse if not for a missed extra point and a poor job by WR DeSean Jackson to not reach for a touchdown.

But then the Packers offense scored on their next 5 possessions for 32 points. This touchdown was the point at which I felt like they were going to win.

Rodgers fires a 🚀 to Adams for the #Packers touchdown! 🎥: https://t.co/d0UhGEJWZS pic.twitter.com/72IRQ9gYdl

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) January 11, 2016

On offense, what went right was their offensive line. They're probably as healthy as they've been in several weeks and subbing JC Tretter in at left tackle instead of moving Josh Sitton over from left guard finally gave them their best lineup, so long as LT David Bakhtiari is still injured. I wasn't excited to hear that Tretter was starting, he was a minor disaster at tackle in 2014, but that early safety was the only sack, and the Redskins only recorded 2 QB hits, for the game. They had been really good at getting to the quarterback over their last few regular season games. Once the passing game got going, the running lanes opened up (good run blocking led to some huge cutback lanes) and the rout was on.

On defense, it was the Packers pass rush. The Redskins had some success running the ball, but that usually happened when Dom Capers got caught in the wrong defense and had an undersized unit on the field (on QB Kirk Cousins's TD run, the only defender over the interior lineman was DB Micah Hyde). But their offensive line had no answer for the Packers' defensive rush. LBs Nick Perry and Mike Neal have had forgettable regular seasons, but both came up huge in this game. The Redskins were able to get open and beat the Packers' coverage but sacks (and one lost fumble) killed their offense.

This was one of their best overall games of the year, and it came at just the right time. Hopefully their injuries aren't too serious (WR Davante Adams hurt his knee (he said it's only sore) and it's unknown at this time if CB Quinten Rollins has a serious groin injury) and they'll make it back on the short week. Unlike in this game, when they were steamrolled in the opening quarter, they can't get blown away for one quarter and expect to beat the Cardinals. They'll have to play well over the course of an entire game, which isn't something they've done often this season.

Why The Packers Will Defeat The Redskins; Because of Their Offense

I'll have to admit, I'm having trouble writing about how the Green Bay Packers' offense is going to beat the Redskins. The easy answer is that the Redskins have a mediocre defense (ranked No. 21 overall according to Football Outsiders (19st against the pass, 22nd against the run) and the Packers have the defending MVP at quarterback. The offense will look much better if the starting offensive line (especially LT David Bakhtiari) can play and RB Eddie Lacy can have one of his good games.

However, that's not the reality of this season. Bakhtiari is still struggling with his ankle injury and Lacy has had many more bad games than good. RB James Starks isn't the answer either; the Packers can't run behind their beat up offensive line. The passing game has covered up for the lack of a running game in past seasons by killing defenses with their deep passing game, but that element has vanished this season without WR Jordy Nelson.

Aaron Rodgers - 2015 Passing YPA First 6 games - 8.19 Last 10 games - 5.97 Good lord.

— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) January 6, 2016

Even that 8.19 YPA is low for Rodgers. He was at 8.43 YPA in 2014, and 8.75 in 2013. The big change since those first six games is that WR James Jones isn't fooling as many defenses as he was at the start of the season. He still has his moments but they're not as frequent. Cobb's never been much of a deep threat but according to Pro Football Focus, Cobb caught 3 TDs in 2014 on targets of 20 yards or more, and he's caught zero in 2015. I won't even get into how much of a disappointment WR Davante Adams has been in this regard. The low YPA isn't a sign that Rodgers has turned into a dink-and-dunk passer but that the deep passing game has had such a low percentage of success in 2015.

It would seem like the Packers need to focus on a short passing-high completion percentage game plan. It's not Mike McCarthy's style but they got to get out of 3rd and long situations and win the hidden elements of the game, like field position, and let their very good defense create some short fields after defensive stops and/or turnovers.

But stopping the short passing game is probably the strength of the Redskins' defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Redskins are terrible against No.1 and No. 2 wide receivers but slightly above average against other wide receivers. They're also the 5th best defense against running backs in coverage, so those running back screens don't look like something to use against them. They're not great at covering tight ends but TE Richard Rodgers isn't someone who can really challenge them.

While they will run the ball on occasion, RB Eddie Lacy has only been good in recent games against the Cowboys (who have a terrible run defense) and the Vikings, and Lacy just seems to have the Vikings number. RB James Starks has been even worse lately (4 fumbles over his last 5 games) and his only big game in recent weeks came against the terrible Cowboys, but he seems more likely to have a breakout game than Lacy. Either way, it seems very unlikely that the running game will provide a spark.

My opinion is subject to change depending on the Packers' next opponent, but it looks like the best thing the Packers' offense can do is to keep leaning heavily on Jones and Cobb, as they've been trying to do all season long. The Redskins defense is similar to the Lions, and the passing game (Hail Mary aside) did pretty well against them in two games (as long as they don't try to force feed the ball to Davante Adams). The big difference between those two teams is the Lions can't cover tight ends and Richard Rodgers killed the Lions in both games against them. Despite what I wrote earlier, maybe getting him involved more is the way to go against the Redskins, in addition to leaning heavily on Jones and Cobb.

Sticking to the same offensive schemes that haven't been working all season isn't an inspired game plan, however, that is probably the best way for the Packers' offense to defeat the Redskins on Sunday.