The Packers Shouldn't Be Tripping Over Themselves To Re-Sign Their Defensive Free Agents, Except...

The Packers have already re-signed and extended two potential free agent defensive lineman, but there are other defenders who played significant roles in 2015 that could become unrestricted free agents next month.

Player	Position	Age	PFF Grade	2015 Snaps
Casey Hayward	CB	26	5.2	1020
Mike Neal	LB	28	-12.7	822
Nick Perry	LB	25	3.1	365
B.J. Raji	NT	29	-4.6	472
Sean Richardson	S	26	-0.8	98

And of those players, there's only one that'll draw significant attention in free agency.

#Packers Hayward Earning Big Payday, Too - Even without an interception, Casey Hayward has been productive for ... https://t.co/BY7sVtyXYP

— Packers on Scout (@PackersOnScout) December 14, 2015

I'm a fan of CB Casey Hayward. Looking only at conventional stats, he underwhelmed with no interceptions and only 7 pass defenses in 2015. But that's a sign that teams don't throw at him despite him being on the field all the time (see 1020 snaps in 2015 above), and the advance stats like him, having earned a grade of 5.2 from Pro Football Focus last season. Maybe he wasn't targeted because the Packers relied heavily on two rookie cornerbacks last season, and most teams went after the rookies instead, but this wasn't Hayward's first good season. He's been a reliable player ever since he was drafted in 2012, and other teams are going to notice. While teams are burned badly by free agent cornerbacks every year, they always seem to spend irrationally every March. I'm sure GM Ted Thompson will make Hayward an offer but I think Hayward will get more from another cornerback desperate team.

This is LB Mike Neal's second run through unrestricted free agency. He drew little interest back in 2014 and he hasn't done anything to improve his worth since then. But he shouldn't cost too much and the Packers might prefer the limited player they know (see Guion, Letroy) rather than the unknown player they'd have to find to replace him. It's not important to re-sign him but I won't be upset if they do.

While LB Nick Perry is the only defender other than Hayward listed here with a positive PFF grade, his positive grade was from his run support, not his pass rush. The irony is that Perry entered the NFL with a reputation as a great pass rusher at USC and a complete unknown as a run defender. He's obviously worked hard to improve the weakest part of his game. Unfortunately his best skill (pass rush) has either stalled or vanished last season. The Packers declined his fifth-year option last year and he didn't do much to prove them wrong. Whether it was due to injuries or a lack of trust, the former 1st round pick only logged 365 snaps at outside linebacker when there wasn't any serious competition blocking his path to more playing time. I would guess that the Packers might be willing to give him a one-year contract to provide depth, but maybe another team will be more aggressive on giving him a fresh start and seeing if they can find the talent that made him a top prospect.

Like Neal, this is not NT B.J. Raji's first go around as an unrestricted free agent, and he's drawn little interest from other teams in the past. He didn't do much to stand out last season, but if they don't re-sign him then they'll absolutely have to find someone else like him. With $23 million of room available under the cap, there's no reason to go cheap on the defensive line. While Raji could be replaced, his position needs to be filled, and only the Jets's NT Damon Harrison is clearly a better free agent who might be available. GM Ted Thompson will spend for a star player but Harrison doesn't look like that type of player. The Packers know what they've got with Raji as a run stuffer (even if he's becoming a bit injury prone) and that's probably better than spinning the draft roulette wheel.

Unfortunately this is probably the end of DB Sean Richardson's career.

In the end, other than Hayward (the Packers have depth at CB if he leaves) they should probably push to re-sign Neal, Perry and Raji because they should be affordable and they'd leave holes on the roster if they departed. And the Packers already need to add another inside linebacker (or two) and need more depth at every offensive skill position. This team is good enough now to win a championship and they should try and keep it all together, as best as they can.

Packers Hosting St. Louis' Pass Rushers On Sunday: Bryan Bulaga Is Back Just In Time

As it was explained to me by a colleague earlier today, the Rams only play well against NFC West teams but they're terrible against everyone else and I shouldn't worry about them in Lambeau against the Packers.

However the Rams do have a fantastic pass rush and the Packers have struggled protecting QB Aaron Rodgers. But one of their best lineman will be returning from injury just in time.

Bryan Bulaga: "If I feel good, I'm going to play." #STLvsGB Read more: http://t.co/SKiQWXPcba pic.twitter.com/R1VPrpXzcs

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 9, 2015

Depending on the game, Bulaga's replacement, RT Don Barclay, has varied from OK to horrible. There really is no comparison, and Bulaga is significantly better.

There will be a few notable Packers missing: WR Davante Adams is still out with a high ankle sprain, and SS Morgan Burnett with a calf injury. Both are listed as questionable, but the fact that neither one practiced on Friday is bad sign. The offense has continued to play well without Adams as Jones and Montgomery have stepped up in his absence. But the run defense has really struggled except when they're bringing an extra safety down into the box, which they can get away with against QB Colin Kaepernick, but not against QB Nick Foles, who has a good deep ball. Burnett was strong against the run last season and he's been missed so far in 2015.

He's struggled in limited snaps, but it was also reported that SS Sean Richardson suffered a serious neck injury. I had forgotten about the serious neck injury he suffered in 2012, and that was one I didn't think he come back from. This one might end his career.

The Packers favored by 9 points, and the Rams might be without a couple of notable players: LB Alec Ogletree and WR Kenny Britt. Those might not seem like the biggest names ever, but Ogletree enters this game as their leading tackler and Britt as their leading receiver in yards. Ogletree is definitely out, though Britt is expected to play through his injured knee.

Packer News: Kuhn and Richardson Return in 2015

At least the NFL is finally releasing the 2015 schedule this week, and I can figure out if I can make it to a game at Lambeau this year. Unfortunately the NFL draft is still over a week away which brings another week of complete guess work about prospects and what the heck GM Ted Thompson might be thinking.

But there was some actual news last week.

#Packers re-sign fullback John Kuhn & safety Sean Richardson: http://t.co/rkLoReaov3 pic.twitter.com/FXEi1x6rI2
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) April 13, 2015

Re-signing FB John Kuhn for the veteran's minimum was a no-brainer. He's never hurt and his run blocking was solid last season. He can also be trusted in pass blocking and he's useful as an occasional short yard runner. That he can provide all of this while only carrying the salary cap charge of a late round draft choice is a bargain.

S Sean Richardson is costing more than the Packers expected, the offer sheet he signed with the Raiders (and the Packers matched) was about a million more than the Packers' original offer, but to let him go could have been a disaster. He's their only backup defensive back with experience (I'm considering their top 5 defensive backs as all starters since Dom Capers has them in the nickel package so often). He's not good in pass coverage and much better as a sort of linebacker, but they can probably expect he'll play on about 400 snaps next season (depending on what happens in the draft) and if any player on the team can be deemed a critical backup at this time, he's it.

It was the right choice to bring both players back in 2015.

Will The Packers Match Sean Richardson's Offer Sheet?

My first thought agreed with that ESPN article below, and $2.5 million for a backup safety is too rich for GM Ted Thompson. Over The Cap says the Packers only have around $5 million in cap room, which they still need a chunk of for their upcoming rookie class. But I'm having second thoughts:

Their defensive backfield depth is nothing without Sean Richardson. If he did leave, then there's no one behind their top five defensive backs currently on the roster that even played one snap on defense last season. The cost of an extra $1 million (Richardson's tender is already on their cap at $1.5 million) might be well worth it for a reliable defensive back.

Nick Perry and Datone Jones would have about the same cap charge as Richardson next season. While both are former 1st round picks and more a part of the regular defensive rotation than Richardson, both of them had play counts last season below at least three other players at their positions. In 2014, Richardson had about a third of the snaps that either Perry or Jones had, but it's not a stretch to imagine a larger role for Richardson in 2015 with Tramon Williams and Davon House now gone.

He'll cost more than they wanted him to, but I bet they keep him for next season. Otherwise they'll have to kick the tires on a current street free agent or two to find someone who can replace him.

Packers might let Sean Richardson leave - ESPN (blog) http://t.co/mJETnluqgR
— Green Bay Packers (@PackerNews) April 8, 2015

Packers Depth Chart: Defensive Backfield

As much as the Packers knew they needed to upgrade their pass rush (enter Julius Peppers) they've also aggressively targeted players for their defensive backfield, while keeping pretty much the status quo at linebacker (though I do hope they found someone in 4th round LB Carl Bradford).

They did draft two more players who should figure into the defensive back rotation next season, and they have also signed a couple of undrafted free agents who may earn a spot. They'll probably keep eight defensive backs (plus one or two on the practice squad) and here's how it breaks down.

Locks: Sam Shields, Tramon Williams, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde, Morgan Burnett, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. That's six guys right off the bat, and though Williams could be a salary cap casualty some day, it's probably not going to happen in 2014. There's not a lot of room left on the roster after those locks.

Davon House. He played 472 snaps on defense in 2013 but didn't impress (-4.9 grade in coverage according to Pro Football Focus). He'll miss the cut if he has another poor preseason like he did in 2013.

Jarrett Bush. He's still their special teams' ace and he didn't play much in 2013 until late in the season (plus a game ending INT against the Falcons). I don't know if he'll ever lose his roster spot.

Demetri Goodson. It'll be surprising if their 6th round pick will have a long NFL career, but he's probably going to be a favorite for the practice squad. Without a lot of experience in college, he's probably going to need a longer learning curve in the NFL and they'll probably be patient with him for at least one season.

Chris Banjo and Sean Richardson. So far, they've survived the safety purge of 2013 that's led to the departures of M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian, but the Packers have recently signed two more players to compete against them.

Iowa's Tanner Miller. His measurables are just as strong as Clinton-Dix's but the difference between them shows up on game film. Miller played 46 games in college and recorded 7 career INTs, but he also took the blame for allowing some long plays at Iowa. His instincts in the open field might be lacking.

Hawaii's Charles Clay. He's got some speed (4.42 40 time at his Pro Day) but he was a part-time starter (6 in 2013) on a lousy college football team.

They also have three other CBs (Antonio Dennard, Jumal Rolle and Ryan White) who could find themselves on the practice squad after a strong camp, but they probably won't make it past the final cuts. They should get a chance to play this preseason and they'll have to make the most of it.

I'm glad that the Packers have added quantity and quality (Clinton-Dix) to address a major weakness last season. Hopefully the new players will make everyone better and improve this group as a whole in 2014.

Grading The 2013 Safeties For The Packers

Earlier this week, I wrote about their need to add depth at safety in the draft and that position really stands out when you look at the current roster where only three players are listed as safeties.

Who's gone: M.D. Jennings and Jerron McMillian. The one thing that they had in common was that they're both awful against the pass. According to Pro Football Focus, they had the two lowest ratings of all the Packer defenders in pass coverage last season. McMillian, who was released mid-season, was seemingly beaten every time he was targeted, and the coaches must have saw nothing in him that they could fix. Jennings wasn't quite that bad, but he didn't make any plays in coverage (0 INTs) and he sometimes looked lost in coverage. These were moves that had to be made.

The starters: Morgan Burnett and Micah Hyde. Hyde's still listed as a cornerback on the official roster, but everyone's talking like he'll be the starting safety. His rating in pass coverage was only a 0.0 according to Pro Football Focus last season, but that was actually the 2nd highest on the team of all the defensive backs who played over 200 snaps last season (only CB Sam Shields was higher). He was a late round pick for a reason, he doesn't have elite speed or size for the position, but he's a player who can fill the role, which will be a big improvement on last season.

I don't think Burnett's ever going to be a star, he might never make a Pro Bowl, but he was much better in 2012. I'm sure the hope is that he'll return to that form, maybe his early season hamstring injury bothered him throughout 2013, but his improvement next season shouldn't be considered a given.

The other options: Sean Richardson and Chris Banjo. I'm impressed Richardson returned to the field after cervical fusion surgery and he wasn't a liability in his 156 snaps. But that doesn't give me any confidence that he's ready to be considered for a starting job either.

Banjo was impressive during the preseason and he was one of the few DBs with a positive rating in pass coverage from Pro Football Focus (in only 192 snaps) but he does seem to have a Sam Shields-like aversion to playing against the run. Banjo could be in the mix in 2014 as the deep safety on 3rd down, similar to what M.D. Jennings provided in 2012, while Hyde moves closer to the line and/or plays against the slot receiver.

So I can see how the safety position could be as good in 2014 as it was in 2012 (not a high bar to clear) but their depth is paper thin with no Plan B other than Sean Richardson. I can understand why they avoided veterans in free agency (a safety who's lost a step isn't a good option) but they need to add to the position in 2014, whether it be through the draft or converting another cornerback to safety.

Position Review: Safety

This position has been constantly changing since Nick Collins and Atari Bigby were the starters from 2007 through 2009. Even then, there was a parade of different strong safeties (Aaron Rouse, Derrick Martin, Jarrett Bush) who filled in for all the times that Bigby was injured. Collins's 2011 career ending neck injury forced another change, but now the position seems settled for the near future.

Position Reviews (Defense): Inside Linebacker, Defensive Line, Outside Linebacker
Position Reviews: Offense

Morgan Burnett. He's still got some room to grow, but at age 24 he's just entering his prime and it can take safeties a little longer to develop. Collins didn't become a Pro Bowl performer until his fourth season, which is the same point that Burnett will be at in 2013. A break out season won't cause any salary cap troubles either because he just signed a five-year extension.

M.D. Jennings. The Packers employ an unusual safety rotation in which he's the starter but he's not always on the field (unlike Burnett). He'll be the deep coverage safety, and while it would seem that he should be in a battle for the starting job, he's not because McMillian plays a different role on defense.

Jerron McMillian. The unknown college safety from Maine did so well as Charles Woodson's replacement that Woodson was released. He might never be as good as Woodson, but he should be better than him over the next few years (assuming Woodson keeps playing that long). He'll be asked to play like a pseudo linebacker, looking to help out in run support and in coverage against the slot receiver.

While Burnett will never leave the field, both Jennings and McMillian will come off at times, and sometimes they'll play together. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers isn't afraid to shake up the rotation depending on the opponent. I'm not sure I'm expecting great things from them, but they're going to be a solid unit.

The Packers should expect to keep at least one more safety on the roster but there isn't an obvious candidate. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the cornerbacks was asked to play at both positions this season.

Sean Richardson. The formerly undrafted free agent was a surprise addition to the 2012 roster, but his NFL future is in doubt after offseason neck surgery. I expect he'll be released soon.

David Fulton, Chaz Powell, Chris Banjo. A collection of undrafted players; Fulton in 2013, Powell and Banjo in 2012. Banjo was signed this week after Richardson's prognostic looked bleak. Which one of the three players might emerge as a keeper is anyone's guess. Powell probably has a slight lead because he was actually invited to the NFL combine after finishing college at Penn State and he ended last season on the Packers's practice squad.

Depth at safety has been a concern of mine for the past few years, especially with all the injuries, but the top three safeties appear set for the first time in years. The depth behind them is still an issue, but they should find someone worthy among the collection of young players at corner and safety.

The Packers 2012 Undrafted Free Agent Class

The Green Bay Packers signed 15 undrafted free agents after the 2012 NFL draft, and I came away pretty underwhelmed. Even the big name player, USC RB Marc Tyler, isn't someone who should be considered a find. He deserved to be undrafted.

He ran a lousy 4.76 in the 40 at the NFL combine, and it gave him a poor 85 Speed Score. I would put him way behind Brandon Saine, who ran a 4.43 in the 40, and has a very good 114 Speed Score. But Tyler does a good job of avoiding defenders (field vision), following his blockers, and catching the football as a receiver.



However, these undrafted free agents may make up a big part of the roster. Looking back at the list of 15 undrafted free agents signed before the start of the 2011 season, I see that 11 of those players are currently on the roster. Some of them were released and re-signed, while Shaky Smithson spent all season on I.R., but there's no denying that they provided depth.

Though the 2011 undrafted free agent class might be a high water mark. The Packers didn't lose as many free agents as they had the previous year, and many of those 2011 undrafted free agents will still be eligible for the practice squad next season. The 2012 undrafted free agent class is going to have to outplay the returning players. Maybe they can do it, but right now it's just speculation whether any of them can. Here's the rest of the players signed:

South Dakota State WR Dale Moss.
Iowa State WR Darius Reynolds.
Vanderbilt DB Sean Richardson.
Buffalo WR Marcus Rivers.
Winston-Salem FB Nic Cooper.
Minnesota TE Eric Lair.
Gannon NT Randy Colling.
Tulane DE/LB Dezman Moses.
Southern Utah DB Dion Turner.
SD State OL Tommie Draheim.
Minnesota RB Duane Bennett.
Wake Forest TE Cameron Ford.
West Virginia OL Don Barclay.
Michigan Tech DE Drew Vanderlin.