Recapping The Packers 2016 Free Agent Period

The NFL free agent period is rarely an exciting time for GM Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers, and 2016 has been no exception. Extending DT Mike Daniels was the most important task they could have accomplished, and they did it back in 2015, but I'm still left more disappointed than usual. There were some notable free agent departures and they'll be looking to find replacements, and depth, at those positions in April's draft.

Mike McCarthy confirmed the Packers are moving on from WR James Jones. He praised him for being "such a class... https://t.co/Z6qumLVpIV

— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 22, 2016

WR James Jones. Maybe Jones's agent was talking about a $4 million per season Jermaine Kearse type contract, which I would never expect them (nor should they) agree to. But Jones signed for under $1 million twice last season (first with the Giants and then the Packers) so he's probably not looking for a big deal. He finished 2015 as the 20th best receiver in the NFL according to Football Outsiders and he was the team's best receiver by a mile, so asking him to return in 2016 as a $1 million insurance policy looked like a no-brainer, even if he loses the battle in camp this summer to WR Jeff Janis and/or Jared Abbrederis. Yes, WR Jordy Nelson will be back, Janis and Abbrederis should continue to improve, and Jones might not have been necessary. But he was absolutely necessary in 2015 and he wouldn't have broken the bank. I'm also not mentioning WR Davante Adams, who the team appears to have faith in, though I don't. I'd have made re-signing Jones a priority if he's still available in the $1 million range.

DTs B.J. Raji, Letroy Guion, and Mike Pennel. Pennel wasn't a free agent but his upcoming four game suspension should factor into their 2016 plans. But I don't think they expected Raji to walk away from football. Mike McCarthy thinks Raji will return some day but I'm less sure about it because football doesn't seem to be the most important thing in his life. Good for him, but that won't help the Packers much in 2016. That leaves the middle of their line anchored by Guion and Daniels, and a couple other guys who've never played meaningful NFL snaps. DT Josh Boyd will also return, but he was never very good and he's now coming off a season ending injury. I'm worried that some teams will be able to run right over the defense next season.

LB Mike Neal. The Packers want to move LB Clay Matthews back outside next season and they did re-sign LB Nick Perry, so this seems like a good time to let Neal find another NFL home. I've never been his biggest fan so I'm glad they're looking to find someone better than him. But he was 5th on the team with 734 defensive snaps last season so they have to replace him with somebody, and I have no idea who that somebody will be. LB Sam Barrington will return but you never know what a player is like after a season ending injury. LBs Jake Ryan and Joe Thomas should continue to improve while platooning as a run stuffing and pass covering inside linebacker combo. Also, former disappointments LB Nate Palmer and Carl Bradford remain on the roster. The Packers have a lot of draft choices in the upcoming draft and they're sure to draft at least one linebacker, but they haven't had the best track record of developing inside linebackers. The loss of Raji and Pennel up front, along with Matthews moving back outside from inside, has left the middle of their defense looking like a giant question mark heading into 2016.

CB Casey Hayward. The Packers really didn't need Hayward anymore. The Chargers are paying him $5 million per season starting in 2016 and he might have been challenged for playing time with the Packers by CB Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Also, former 5th round pick CB Demetri Goodson is in the mix. But letting a solid player like Hayward go for only a future 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick seems like a poor value. Hayward is a good player now, and that future draft choice is only maybe a good player someday. They've given up something without getting enough back, while at the same time the defense is taking a step back at tackle and inside linebacker.

I'm just not feeling the power of young players when a few of them disappointed last season at key positions like receiver and linebacker. That's the way the Packers work and free agency isn't the answer for most teams, but it's still left me underwhelmed with their offseason plans while I wait for them to re-load in the upcoming draft.

The Packers Shouldn't Be Tripping Over Themselves To Re-Sign Their Defensive Free Agents, Except...

The Packers have already re-signed and extended two potential free agent defensive lineman, but there are other defenders who played significant roles in 2015 that could become unrestricted free agents next month.

Player	Position	Age	PFF Grade	2015 Snaps
Casey Hayward	CB	26	5.2	1020
Mike Neal	LB	28	-12.7	822
Nick Perry	LB	25	3.1	365
B.J. Raji	NT	29	-4.6	472
Sean Richardson	S	26	-0.8	98

And of those players, there's only one that'll draw significant attention in free agency.

#Packers Hayward Earning Big Payday, Too - Even without an interception, Casey Hayward has been productive for ... https://t.co/BY7sVtyXYP

— Packers on Scout (@PackersOnScout) December 14, 2015

I'm a fan of CB Casey Hayward. Looking only at conventional stats, he underwhelmed with no interceptions and only 7 pass defenses in 2015. But that's a sign that teams don't throw at him despite him being on the field all the time (see 1020 snaps in 2015 above), and the advance stats like him, having earned a grade of 5.2 from Pro Football Focus last season. Maybe he wasn't targeted because the Packers relied heavily on two rookie cornerbacks last season, and most teams went after the rookies instead, but this wasn't Hayward's first good season. He's been a reliable player ever since he was drafted in 2012, and other teams are going to notice. While teams are burned badly by free agent cornerbacks every year, they always seem to spend irrationally every March. I'm sure GM Ted Thompson will make Hayward an offer but I think Hayward will get more from another cornerback desperate team.

This is LB Mike Neal's second run through unrestricted free agency. He drew little interest back in 2014 and he hasn't done anything to improve his worth since then. But he shouldn't cost too much and the Packers might prefer the limited player they know (see Guion, Letroy) rather than the unknown player they'd have to find to replace him. It's not important to re-sign him but I won't be upset if they do.

While LB Nick Perry is the only defender other than Hayward listed here with a positive PFF grade, his positive grade was from his run support, not his pass rush. The irony is that Perry entered the NFL with a reputation as a great pass rusher at USC and a complete unknown as a run defender. He's obviously worked hard to improve the weakest part of his game. Unfortunately his best skill (pass rush) has either stalled or vanished last season. The Packers declined his fifth-year option last year and he didn't do much to prove them wrong. Whether it was due to injuries or a lack of trust, the former 1st round pick only logged 365 snaps at outside linebacker when there wasn't any serious competition blocking his path to more playing time. I would guess that the Packers might be willing to give him a one-year contract to provide depth, but maybe another team will be more aggressive on giving him a fresh start and seeing if they can find the talent that made him a top prospect.

Like Neal, this is not NT B.J. Raji's first go around as an unrestricted free agent, and he's drawn little interest from other teams in the past. He didn't do much to stand out last season, but if they don't re-sign him then they'll absolutely have to find someone else like him. With $23 million of room available under the cap, there's no reason to go cheap on the defensive line. While Raji could be replaced, his position needs to be filled, and only the Jets's NT Damon Harrison is clearly a better free agent who might be available. GM Ted Thompson will spend for a star player but Harrison doesn't look like that type of player. The Packers know what they've got with Raji as a run stuffer (even if he's becoming a bit injury prone) and that's probably better than spinning the draft roulette wheel.

Unfortunately this is probably the end of DB Sean Richardson's career.

In the end, other than Hayward (the Packers have depth at CB if he leaves) they should probably push to re-sign Neal, Perry and Raji because they should be affordable and they'd leave holes on the roster if they departed. And the Packers already need to add another inside linebacker (or two) and need more depth at every offensive skill position. This team is good enough now to win a championship and they should try and keep it all together, as best as they can.

Mike Daniels and The Interior Defensive Lineman Have To Start Bringing the Pass Rush Back

This season, when I'm watching the Green Bay Packers defense, I often focus on DE Mike Daniels at the snap. Whether he beats his blocker(s) is a strong indicator whether the defense is going to make a play or not, and over the last couple weeks, I've noticed that he's usually not winning the one-on-one battle against his blocker. I'm not blaming him for the entire defense's struggles over the past three games but the interior pass rush has been part of the problem.

Yes the outside linebackers have struggled, but so have B.J. Raji and Mike Daniels. Raji breaks down the problems: https://t.co/S7uq5ggQMx

— Michael Cohen (@Michael_Cohen13) November 12, 2015

At the link above, NT B.J. Raji tries his best to explain what's gone wrong. He mentions the defensive mentality and playing with his instincts. Maybe he's trying to say that the defense wasn't playing their game and they've let the offense dictate the approach.

It's not been a case of playing against superior opponents either. On the offensive line, the Panthers are pretty good on the interior of their offensive line, led by C Ryan Kalil. On the other hand, the Broncos don't have a very good line (LG Evan Mathis and RG Louis Vasquez are good in run blocking and pass protection, respectively, but neither one is great at both) and the Chargers' offensive line is a borderline disaster.

Maybe it's just a matter of pushing through their mid-season exhaustion and minor injuries. The defense was on the field a ton against the Chargers (Daniels recorded 73 snaps out of 94 played). They did have the bye week right after that game and before they played the Broncos, but it might not have been enough of a break. Having their last two games on the road hasn't helped either.

A lot things have gone wrong for the defense over their last three games but benching ILB Nate Palmer and reviving the inside pass rush might fix the problem. When you watch the Packers host the Lions, keep an eye on Daniels (and DE Datone Jones, when he rotates in on the defensive line) and see if they can get in the face of QB Matthew Stafford as he's trying to throw.

Packers Family Saturday Night Practice

It's just another practice, but it takes place in front of 67,000 and is live streamed, so it's not just another day of training camp for the Green Bay Packers.

Check out our gallery from #Packers Family Night http://t.co/T4aYxNbxNG pic.twitter.com/kDccJQUbeK

— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) August 9, 2015

A few things I took away from the practice:

The backup quarterbacks struggled. QB Aaron Rodgers also threw a pick but I'm not worried about him. All three backups have NFL potential but none of them, so far, has shown that they can put it all together in a game setting. QB Scott Tolzien would seem to be the leader in that category since he's been with them since 2013, but he didn't get into the end zone on the two-minute drill to end practice, and he had a long discussion with Mike McCarthy afterwards, appearing to discuss what went wrong. McCarthy looked a bit frustrated during the conversation.

The backup wide outs dropped passes. WR Davante Adams put on a show during practice, and you know Nelson and Cobb are one and two on the depth chart. Rookie 3rd round WR Ty Montgomery has gotten off to a great start (and he was a great college player), and even practice squad WR Myles White has received praised. They look like the top five receivers and everyone else (Abbrederis and Janis being the most notable) appear to be on the wrong side of the roster bubble because they aren't healthy (Abbrederis has been recovering from a concussion) or been dropping passes.

NT B.J. Raji. I'm not his biggest fan, but it was good to see him back on the field. With the exception of second year DT Mike Pennel, who had a couple moments last season, they played without a nose tackle last season. Seeing Raji's large frame back on the field actually looked like a good sign for the defense.

Packers Bring Guion and Raji Back For 2015

The Green Bay Packers had to do something at defensive tackle and still do need to address the position in the upcoming draft. But the draft doesn't always go like expected so bringing back two familiar faces should at least keep their depth in decent shape for next season. Also, both NT B.J. Raji and DT Letroy Guion are returning on one-year deals that aren't going to cause any future salary cap problems if they don't work out.

ICYMI: The #Packers announced the re-signing of DTs B.J. Raji & Letroy Guion yesterday. More: http://t.co/GhvHDteh4N pic.twitter.com/4WEp4YUqoz
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) April 1, 2015

DT Mike Daniels is arguably their best defensive player and Datone Jones was very good as a situational pass rusher, but after them their defensive line depth was bad. They have three young players who could still develop (Mike Pennel, Khyri Thornton, and Josh Boyd) but they can't count on them for anything more than a part-time role.

I'm shocked Guion avoided any serious legal troubles from his recent arrest, but the Packers obviously have no concerns about bringing him back so he shouldn't be a problem in the locker room. He was forced into the role of nose tackle last season after Raji was hurt, and it's not his best position, but he wasn't terrible against the run and occasionally provided some pass rush. If he's getting close to the $1 million he received in 2014, he'll be worth the money.

Raji was terrible in 2013 and he was hurt for all of 2014. The Packers still think well of him and will pay him $3 million in 2015 but I'm not sure he's worth it anymore. I don't know how many more chances he'll receive but so far the answer is "at least one more."

So I'm not a fan of either signing but something needed to be done at defensive tackle. This assures that they won't be scrambling for depth during training camp and gives them some veteran options. I can't argue with the safe move even if it doesn't make them all that much better in 2015.

Raji Out For Season After Tearing Bicep

Packers Nose Tackle B.J. Raji will miss the entire 2014 season after tearing his bicep in yesterday's win over the Raiders, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports. 

The injury, the first serious one of Raji's career, is expected to take 4-6 months of recovery, according to The Press-Gazette's Ryan Wood.

Raji, 28, signed a one-year, $4 million deal with Green Bay earlier this summer, just months after declining a contract worth five times that.

No, that fact doesn't make this wound any better, but yes, it does make it more tolerable, as losing a guy worth little for a campaign is obviously not as bad as one worth much.

Five Key Things To Watch In Camp: Number 1 - Julius Peppers and the Defense

Julius Peppers comes to Green Bay as one of the biggest free agent signings in GM Ted Thompson's tenure, and he is the face of the new look defense Dom Capers is bringing to the Packers in 2014. While everyone will be watching to see how many sacks he records, he's only going to succeed if Capers's new defense is a hit.

What has #Packers DT Mike Daniels learned from new teammate Julius Peppers? Watch: http://t.co/ZuyBqfzYQv pic.twitter.com/bZROVqQDyv
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) July 8, 2014

If you look at the defensive front seven, which is where the new defensive look should be obvious, the roster is mostly the same as it was in 2013. Peppers is on board, along with rookies DE Khyri Thornton and LB Carl Bradford, but the rookies might barely play in the early goings. The only mountain on the line remaining is NT B.J. Raji (gone are Pickett and Jolly) and the Packers could frequently line up with only two 300 lb. lineman and an army of linebackers and defensive backs behind them. That formation will be easier to run against, but it'll be hard for a receiver to find any room in coverage.

Capers described the defense as "less volume, more packages" which actually brings some simplicity to the defense. The personnel on the field will "dictate the defense" instead of going with the same personnel group and asking them to do different things. I expect that means he'll be coaching more to his players' strengths.

So Peppers might be playing primarily at linebacker, but he's still listed as a LB/DE, so there should be packages that line him up at defensive end. It's probably the same role they had in mind for Mike Neal last season, but injuries forced Neal to play at linebacker most of the time. Asking Nick Perry to play the same role wouldn't be a bad idea either because he's never looked great dropping back into coverage.

We should be seeing more players rotating on and off the field in 2014, and maybe they'll keep an extra defensive end and linebacker on the roster. However, the disappointing thing is that we might not see what this new defense looks like until the regular season. The Packers have already coached the players on how these new packages work during OTAs, but there's no incentive to give the rest of the NFL an early look during the preseason. Maybe a few of them will be shown, but the Packers will probably play nothing other than their base defense as they evaluate some of the fringe roster candidates during the bulk of the preseason games.

While everyone will be watching Peppers and the new look defense this season, unfortunately neither of them should be seen much during the preseason games.

Pickett Not Convinced His Career is Over

Since the beginning of the offseason, it's been assumed by many that veteran Defensive Tackle Ryan Pickett won't return to Green Bay.

The 34-year-old, who's been with the Packers since 2006, has collected a solid 557 tackles so far in his NFL career, a stat that doesn't really indicate future success. 

Still, Pickett is making it clear that he doesn't think he's done yet, recently telling the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he "can play ball."

Since joining the Pack eight years ago, #79 has been solid, something that could end up getting him a one-year deal, as Green Bay did that exact thing with B.J. Raji back in March.

Packers GM Thompson sees "no evidence of any decline" in Peppers' play

Packers GM Ted Thompson sees "no evidence of any decline" in DE Julius Peppers' play, the 61-year old recently told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tyler Dunne. Peppers, an 8-time Pro Bowler, signed a 3-year, $30 million deal with Green Bay March 15, officially ending his time as a rival. 

"Well, 34 is not so old," Thompson said. "Not for some of us. There’s no evidence of any decline in his play, in our opinion. He still has the same athletic traits that he had coming out. He’s had a remarkable history in the NFL in terms of durability. We’re looking forward to it. I think he is, too."

During his four seasons in Chicago, Peppers averaged a solid 35 annual tackles, a slight decline from the 39 he averaged during his time with the Panthers from 2002-2009. Technically something not so great, but still, considering that Green Bay's two main DEs in 2014, Johnny Jolly and B.J. Raji, collected just 21 and 17 tackles respectively this guy is definitely an upgrade. 

And remember, it's not like the Packers need a perfect defense to win this year. They already have arguably the league's best offense, so, in my opinion, a defense ranked somewhere in the middle of the league would be more than enough to help them collect 13+ victories. 

2014 Free Agency: Packers Re-Sign Quarless and Raji

GM Ted Thompson never signs anybody who played for another team, but he has continued with his strong track record of re-signing his own players.

Most recently, B.J. Raji agreed to the deal that he said he's not interested in:

Raji deal expected to be worth around $4 million. Could be ncentives. It means TT has spent $16M in cap space on retaining five of his own.
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) March 14, 2014

and TE Andrew Quarless:

Quite a bargain price, no? RT @TomPelissero Andrew Quarless signed a 2-year, $3M deal with #Packers. $350K bonus. Bases of $800K, $1.3M.
— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) March 13, 2014

Depending how the next few days go for CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, no player probably made a bigger blunder than Raji, who turned down $20 million guaranteed before eventually signing for $4 million. He was awful last season, but there's just no downside at one-year and $4 million for the Packers.

I'm not a big fan of Quarless, he was very disappointing last season but I was probably hoping for too much from him. However, this contract is even more modest than it looks, with the larger base salary coming in 2015. At just over $1 million in 2014, he's getting paid like a backup, though he could be a solid starter if his run blocking returns to pre-2011 form. He looks like a steal considering the contract the Lions just handed out to an inferior TE; Brandon Pettigrew. I'd still love to see them sign TE Owen Daniels as their main pass receiving tight end. Then Quarless would be a solid No. 2 based on his 2013 production and 2014 price tag.

Raji apparently not interested in the Packers recent offer

Soon-to-be Free Agent DE B.J. Raji is apparently not interested in the Packers recent offer for 1 year and $4 million, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Tom Silverstein and Bob McGinn report. As recently as yesterday, multiple sources, including Bleacher Report, ESPN, and NBC Sports' Pro Football Talk, were reporting that the two sides were very close to a new deal, although now I think it's obvious that that wasn't actually the case.

So yea, I guess the Packers might end up dodging the bullet here. No guarantees of course, but still, they might. I mean, isn't that something to celebrate?

Reaction: Packers, Raji close to reaching a new deal

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Packers and DE B.J. Raji, whose time in Green Bay has been assumed by many to be over, are close to reaching a new deal. The deal wouldn't be that big, as it would reportedly only be for 1 year and $4 million, but still, it's happening. I don't know why, but it is.

Anyway, if this whole thing does it get done Raji would end up making $500,000 less this season than he did last year, which, considering how bad he was, doesn't make much sense. I mean come on, he's not worth that much money. In my opinion, he doesn't deserve more than $1 million due to his lack of production.

ESPN Reports Packers To Re-Sign B.J. Raji

As Rod Demovsky notes in his ESPN article, B.J. Raji's agent has certainly been working for weeks to determine his client's worth. If he does sign a one-year deal with the Green Bay Packers, then the news must have been discouraging.

Examining why B.J. Raji would do a 1-year deal with the #Packers. A move back to NT might be part of it. http://t.co/8UASz2QlR8
— Rob Demovsky (@RobDemovsky) March 6, 2014

I've really been down on Raji for the past few months, and I couldn't even come up with a good reason to re-sign him. I was ready to let him walk. Having said that, if Raji is willing to accept a reported one-year deal for $4 million, there is absolutely no harm in giving it to him.

A one-year deal would only take up part of their massive 2014 salary cap space, and it comes with no risk of dead money in the future, if he's released, even with a $4 million price tag (which probably won't be fully guaranteed anyway).

He won't make the defense better on his own, but when the defensive unit as a whole played better during the 2012 season, Raji's play improved. A return to nose tackle would indicate that the Packers have officially given up on him as a pass rusher, he hasn't been getting after the QB since September 2011, but they do need someone other than just Josh Boyd to man the position next season.

I'm not expecting Raji to turn his career around at this point, but at this price, it's worth it to keep him around in 2014 to see if he can do it.

The Packers Did Not Use The Franchise Tag on Any Free Agent

This isn't a surprise to me, the Packers don't have a free agent worthy of it, but GM Ted Thompson didn't use either the franchise or transition tag on any of his players.

Shields, Raji closer to free agency after #Packers decline to use tags. http://t.co/NtfXDORd2e
— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) March 3, 2014

The reason only four teams used the franchise tag is that the 2014 numbers are crazy. In Shields case, he'd be in line for almost $12 million in 2014, when the reality is that he's worth about $6 million per season. CB Brent Grimes was a lot better than Shields last season, he was ranked by Pro Football Focus as the league's 2nd best CB last season while Shields was ranked 52nd, and Grimes received $8 million per season. Even he wasn't getting the franchise tag.

I don't think any team is going to go crazy for a cornerback because there are a lot of good free agents to choose from (Vontae Davis, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Alterraun Verner, to name a few). Shields was ranked much higher by Pro Football Focus in 2012, but that season he also played on fewer snaps (606 in 2012, 900 in 2013) . He might be a player who does better in a rotation, which means he's not a shutdown corner, and he might not even be an every down player. These aren't reasons not to re-sign him, but there reasons why he's not going to get a huge free agent contract.

Tom Silverstein of the Journal Sentinel has NFL sources while I have none, but if Silverstein's hearing that B.J. Raji might be offered a free agent contract worth $9 million a year, then those sources are nuts. Did they watch him last season? He was almost the last rated 3-4 DE according to Pro Football Focus in 2013, and while he was much better in 2012, they rated him as the worst defensive tackle in 2011. There's simply no way he should be taking up 15% of their cap space with a $9 million annual contract. I'm not sure I want him back at any price.

So deciding not to use the franchise tag on either player was a good business decision, and GM Ted Thompson is known for making good business decisions. Declining the franchise tag was just part of the process before they hopefully re-sign Shields.

Does McCarthy still want Raji and Pickett?

Well, right now it definitely appears that way. Just check out this quote I recently found in the Milwaukee JS:

"We're looking to sign those guys (Raji and Pickett) back, but we'll see what happens," McCarthy, who, let's keep in mind, is the team's Coach, not it's General Manager, said. "Those decisions, a lot of those will be financial. That's really not practical to keep them all."

So yea people, it now appears that, maybe, just maybe, the Packers will waste some of their surplus money this offseason. They might not, but C'Mon, that first sentence is pretty clear, isn't it?

2014 NFL Franchise Tag: Might The Packers Use It?

The franchise tag period is getting a little overrated these days. The big problem is that there hasn't been much of an increase in the salary cap over the past couple years. It might be between $126 to $128 million in 2014, up from $123 million in 2013, but the franchise tag is such a big number (often over $10 million) that a lot of teams just aren't able to make it work. Plus, the players hate it because it's less likely they'll receive a long-term deal (and giant signing bonus) after they've been tagged. Only eight players received the franchise tag in 2013.

A former agent writing at CBSSports.com noted that GM Ted Thompson has only used the franchise tag on two occasions (Ryan Pickett and Corey Williams) while mentioning only two possible candidates in 2014: CB Sam Shields and B.J. Raji.

Tom Silverstein thinks the franchise tag amount of $11+ million might be too rich for Shields, and I'd agree with him. Shields' cumulative cornerback grade at Pro Football Focus is just below (and similar) to CB Sean Smith, who signed a three-year, $16.5 million contract with the Chiefs last March. The Bears recently re-signed CB Tim Jennings for four-years and $22.4 million, another player similar to Shields. The franchise tag of $11+ million would be a substantial overpay, though Shields could end up receiving more than either Smith or Jennings because he's younger and has more speed.

I have no idea why Raji's mentioned as a franchise tag candidate, he's listed as one of the top candidates according to NFL.com, but he hasn't recorded a sack in forever and his run defense went into the tank late last season. Why would they pay him $9.2 million in 2014? It would be stupid to tag Raji, and Ted Thompson doesn't do stupid.

So it doesn't look like the Packers will be using the franchise tag in 2014. I still want the Packers to re-sign Shields, but I don't want them to use the franchise tag on him. No other free agent looks like a viable candidate.

Packers Free Agents: B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett

I hadn't intended to combine both players into one post, but they are both expected to be playing for new teams in 2014 because its rumored that the Packers intend to spend money in free agency to re-make their defensive line.

THIS DAY IN PACKERS HISTORY 2011: the Packers defeat the Bears in NFC Championship game. #Raji pic.twitter.com/kOziuABvwk
— Packers Hall of Fame (@PackersHOF) January 23, 2014

For B.J. Raji, I'm surprised it's come to this. He was my preferred choice for their first round pick in 2009, and his strong finish in 2010 seemed to confirm that he was going to be a great player. His struggles began in 2011, when it seemed like the Packers were overworking him, but he wasn't much better in 2012 before becoming a non-factor by the end of last season. Unless they had some inside knowledge to explain why he struggled, it seemed like a good bet that the Packers would let another team sign him. And that was before it became known earlier this week that the Packers were looking at signing smaller, more athletic, defensive lineman. It'd be a surprise to see him back next season.

As for Ryan Pickett, it looks like age has finally caught up with him. He'll be 35 next season and certain to be one of the oldest players in the NFL. He was still good against the run last season, but not as good as he'd been in the past. Defensive lineman can age gracefully, as long as they stay healthy it's not a problem if they lose a step or two, but his days as a starter appear over. If he wants to play again in 2014, I'm sure he'll find another opportunity for a team who's looking for a backup NT, but I'm not expecting it'll be with the Packers.

It's unclear who will replace them next season, it's certain that some fresh players will have to be brought in via free agency and/or the draft, but this does look like the time to move on.

Two Areas To Improve On Before Facing The Vikings

QB Scott Tolzien's game against the Giants was "one of the better zero-touchdown, three-interception games you'll ever see" according to Football Outsiders.

I'm sure before the season, Packers fans thought it would be all about the Tolzien-Boykin connection. #FOAud
— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) November 10, 2013

It's obvious that going from QB Aaron Rodgers to Tolzien has been a step-down. While I'm not trying to ignore that fact, I'm focused on the defense which (with the notable exception of CB Tramon Williams) has taken a step back over their last three games.

The pass defense has been a mess all season long, but now the previously stout run defense has fallen apart. I don't know who leaked the supposed terms of DE B.J. Raji's contract extension, but I did find the timing curious because it came right after RB Brandon Jacobs described how easy it was to run against them. If Raji's going to find a big free agent contract next year, it will be based on his ability as a run defender. The team might be sending him a message that if he thinks he's really an $8 million a year player, he better start showing it on the field.

Before Rodgers returns, they need to win a game or two to keep up in the NFC North playoff chase and Tolzien has to get better. I'm not so much worried that he's not finding the end zone but he can't keep throwing one dumb INT per game. While the Giants don't have an elite pass defense, he'll likely be better at Lambeau against an inferior Vikings pass defense (No. 28 according to Football Outsiders). But the defense has to get better too. If nothing else, their run defense (which was ranked No. 8 overall during Week 8 but has fallen all the way down to No. 21 by Week 11) has to improve. I'm not hoping for anything more from the pass defense by this point in the season.

Position Review: Defensive LIne

Ever since the 2010 season, when B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins were a quality pass rush tandem in their nickel package, the Green Bay Packers's defensive line has been a disappointment. It was awful in 2011 and there wasn't much improvement in 2012.

Previously: Position Reviews - Offense.

B.J. Raji. He hasn't regained the form he showed during the 2010 playoffs, but he's still their best lineman and his 2011 decline was caused by massive overuse on an awful line. The Packers have re-stocked their depth and he could return to his 2010 level now that he's surrounded with better teammates.

Ryan Pickett. The 13 year veteran still provides a solid presence against the run, but hardly anything as a pass rusher. He's a free agent after this year and GM Ted Thompson doesn't usually keep veterans in their 30s, but he's still the same player that he was when he joined the team in 2006. I'm expecting more of the same in 2013 and maybe even a return performance in 2014.

Datone Jones. He looked really good at UCLA and could become their best pass rushing lineman since Jenkins left in free agency. All eyes should be on him this preseason.

Mike Neal. He was second on the team last season with 4.5 sacks, but his future on the line looks cloudy after the selection of Jones in the 1st round. He got some work at outside linebacker but that seems like an unlikely transition for a 294 lb. lineman. He's sure to get another chance in 2013 and it'll be up to him to take advantage of it before he hits free agency.

C.J. Wilson and Mike Daniels. They're different types of players, Wilson has more size and Daniels has more hustle, but they were about as equally productive. Neither one is going to be asked to anchor the middle of the 3-4 formation and both of them might have been pushed back by Jones. They both should make the team but it's not clear whether either player has a long-term future.

Jerel Worthy. I had really high hopes for the him after his 2012 selection in 2nd round, but his biggest impact last season was his inability to stay onside before the snap. A late season knee injury will probably keep him out next season so there's nothing to see here until 2014.

Johnny Jolly. If this was 2009, I'd be really writing about how he's a young anchor to build around. But the prime of his career has been wiped out by years of legal problems. At age 30, he's finally back but who knows how he'll look after missing three seasons. I can't think of another healthy player in recent years who has missed three seasons.

Josh Boyd. I'm not sure where he fits on the roster, but I would expect the Packers to keep their 2013 5th round selection. However, I'm not sure if he can overtake either Wilson or Daniels on the depth chart. If he does make the team, I can't imagine he'll do anything except provide depth.

Gilbert Pena. Packer fans should love a big defensive lineman named Gilbert. He's a big run stuffer who probably went undrafted because he's already 26 years old. Maybe he'll turn out to be a young Ryan Pickett type lineman.

Jordan Miller. He was signed to the practice squad late last season and he's probably the longest shot to stick with the team.

Once Worthy goes on I.R., the Packers will have ten lineman for what will likely be six roster spots. It's possible that someone like Neal or Wilson is released/traded depending on what happens during the preseason. That could open up a spot for Jolly, Boyd, or Pena. But probably those three players will be looking to resume their NFL careers somewhere else at the start of the regular season.

Packers Minicamp: Shields and Jolly Return

Another week, another open practice moved inside due to bad weather. Bummer for the fans, but the media was there to watch it.

Mike McCarthy was glad to have a couple players back: DE Johnny Jolly and CB Sam Shields. Jolly's return was delayed by the "program", I assume McCarthy meant Jolly's court ordered rehab program, but he's almost at his playing weight. The team won't rush him as he returns after a three year absence. Shields finally signed his one-year offer sheet, he'd been hoping for a long-term deal, though the Packers don't have a lot of incentive to give him one until he becomes an unrestricted free agent. He took the place of CB Jarrett Bush with the first team defense, which is definitely an upgrade.

NT B.J. Raji was asked about his contract situation and he wouldn't talk about it. Maybe they've started negotiations, but sometimes the Packers don't even tell the player or his agent what's going on. Charles Woodson wasn't even asked to take a pay cut. The Packers should want to re-sign Raji but you never know.

As for the practice itself, WR Jeremy Ross looked great when completely uncovered, RB James Starks can't hold onto the ball (a bad sign for his future with the team), and some players look great in practice and during games:

Randall Cobb remains one of the team's best practice players. Hasn't dropped anything. Several long gains today.
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) June 4, 2013