Packers (4-3) Stumble on the Road, Lose in Atlanta, 32-33

This was about as even a game as I've seen in recent years from the Green Bay Packers. Neither team's defense could do much to stop the other team's offense. The score was obviously close, a one point margin, but nearly everything was close during this game. Yardage, time of possession, neither team had a turnover (WR Davante Adams fumbled but it went out of bounds), neither team bothered much with their running games, etc.

Final statistics from #GBvsATL.

More: https://t.co/BRTIRefCwO pic.twitter.com/G4UVuT1lRG

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 30, 2016

The Packers's offense is going to be limited for the rest of the season by their inability to run the ball but it's getting better in some ways. WR Jordy Nelson had one of his best games and forced the Falcons to commit more defenders in coverage to stop him. The absence of WR Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery hurt, but they've found the best role for Adams (short routes instead of mid-range to deep sideline routes) and they used Nelson, WR Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis and even Geronimo Allison (his first game off the practice squad) to work downfield. With all those receivers running deeper routes, it opened up a lot of short routes for Adams (who could make one defender miss and pick up several more yards) and huge running lanes for QB Aaron Rodgers, who ran for a career high 60 yards and multiple first downs.

Agree that moral victories don't count. But c'mon. No Matthews, Shields, Randall, Rollins on defense -- then lost Gunter at the end! https://t.co/A40Mpsiitq

— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) October 30, 2016

CB LaDarius Gunter has had an up-and-down season, but this was one of his up-games. He drew WR Julio Jones in coverage and Jones was a non-factor for most of the game, especially after he sprained his ankle in the first half. But the rest of the coverage was poor. The other starting CB (Demetri Goodson) allowed a long TD pass, and they would have had a better match-up against No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu, who led the Falcons in receptions and receiving yards, if the Packers had their top 3 CBs available.

The late game loss of Gunter was significant too. On the game winning TD pass, the Packers had ILB Jake Ryan lined up in single coverage against Sanu, and being down to two healthy CBs (plus utility DB Micah Hyde) might have been part of the reason they found themselves in such a bad match-up on the decisive play of the game. Shields's long-term health is a concern but the other three players should return and make the defense much better.

This loss hurts. They led for much of the game and the defense couldn't make the late lead hold up. The next two games are more manageable, against the Colts and Titans, before two tough prime time road games at Washington and Philadelphia. The two NFC East games are looming large because they might be the key to a Wild Card spot at the end of the season. They just got to keep focused on winning each game, and getting their missing players back healthy.

Packers (4-2) Bounce Back and Dominate Bears, 26-10

It was close game in the first half because the Green Bay Packers had two drives stall within field goal range and another one end at the Bears's one yard on a failed 4th down run by WR Ty Montgomery. But the game was never in doubt because the Bears's offense never showed up, which was kind of surprising because the Bears's offense came in ranked No. 19 overall vs. the Packers No. 14 overall, according to Football Outsiders. They should have been able to keep pace to some degree but they couldn't do anything except patch together one scoring drive for a field goal in the first half.

The Bears's offense would have been better if they hadn't lost QB Brian Hoyer to a broken arm in the first half, but they already were without WR Eddie Royal, who missed the game due to a toe injury. The Packers have been getting killed by No. 1 receivers but WR Alshon Jeffery, who's having a great season, couldn't get anything going with only 3 receptions on 11 targets. Four days ago, CB Ladarius Gunter was getting torched by the Cowboys but he was looked like a quality NFL CB against the Bears.

The Packers came into this game with an advantage on special teams but they gave that away because K Mason Crosby had his worst night in a while. He missed a field goal and had his first missed extra point since 2014. Those two misses kept it a two score game and theoretically gave the Bears a chance. But their offense played so badly, and backup QB Matt Barclay couldn't do anything except throw 2 INTs, so they never really had a chance.

On offense, it was QB Aaron Rodgers's first 300 yard passing game in a while and he played very well, except for another fumble that was recovered in the end zone by the Bears for their only touchdown. Montgomery had another strong receiving game but his running game is not working. RB Knile Davis was limited because he doesn't know the playbook yet and they weren't able to use him yet. WR Randall Cobb had another great game and it was his 2nd consecutive game with a TD reception. WR Jordy Nelson was a forgotten man. And the big story was the huge game by WR Davante Adams.

A career night for @tae15adams!

Every catch from the @packers' WR tonight. 👇 #CHIvsGB #TNF https://t.co/xiSOgTnOQ8

— NFL (@NFL) October 21, 2016

I'm not Adams's No. 1 Fan, but he started out the season with a touchdown reception against Jacksonville and he's slowly getting better this season. But I don't want to make too much out of his this game. If you watch all 13 receptions, you'll see that Adams is either wide open due to a busted coverage or being covered by CB De'Vante Bausby. If Bausby's name doesn't ring any bells, it's probably because he was undrafted in 2015 and promoted from the Bears's practice squad about 5 minutes ago. The Packers used a lot of multiple receiver sets to expose Bausby in one-on-one coverage and Adams torched him. He's not going to get that favorable of a match-up every week.

Now the Packers have a little extra time off until they face the Falcons on October 30. Rodgers should like playing in the dome but this should also be a major challenge for them. The Falcons's offense is really humming along so far this season. They're also currently ranked ahead of the Packers according to Football Outsiders, and so far the Packers have beaten all the teams ranked below them while losing to two teams ranked ahead of them.

Packers Surprisingly Make A Trade For Chiefs RB Knile Davis

The depth behind RB Eddie Lacy was already non-existent after RB James Starks had surgery, and something needed to be done at running back. But I thought GM Ted Thompson would be wait until next offseason and the Green Bay Packers would make due with Lacy and WR Ty Montgomery, until Starks returns in a few weeks. Then it was announced that Lacy's ankle sprain is actually something more and he's seeking a second opinion. So the timeline to add depth was moved up to NOW and something had to be done and it was.

That new @packers RB?
His name is Knile Davis.

And he can do THIS. 😱 https://t.co/SoD51jjCNM

— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2016

The good news is that burst of speed he showed after he got a wide open running lane. He's not a small back (5-10, 227 lbs.) but he has the speed to run away from guys. That extra gear is something the Packers haven't had from a running back in a while. The Chiefs aren't dealing away a problem either, they just have an embarrassment of riches at running back. They already had two quality backs ahead of Davis (Ware and West) and RB Jamaal Charles returned from injury last week. Davis made the roster this year because he's a special teams player (see above) but he was the 4th or 5th running back on the depth chart, which is too many backs for any NFL roster.

Dorsey: "Give me something for Knile Davis, you need a runner."
Thompson: "We can just wait until you cut him."
Dorsey: "Work with me here."

— Andrew Brandt (@AndrewBrandt) October 18, 2016

While the above aren't actual quotes, it looks true. The Chiefs were probably going to have to release Davis (5 RBs on a 53-man roster isn't workable) as soon as they needed a roster spot. But the Packers aren't the highest team on the waiver wire so they had to give up something to make sure they could get him. A conditional 7th round pick in 2018 is about the smallest draft pick an NFL team can surrender.

The Packers need a running back right NOW, and Davis has legitimate NFL skills. Unfortunately he's still not a very good player. His only significant playing last came in 2013 as a rookie, and according to Football Outsiders, while his teammate Jamaal Charles was the 3rd best RB in the NFL that season, in the same offense, Davis was one of the ten worst backs in the league. And the fumbles, oh the fumbles. He isn't a long-term solution but he's the best player they'll find right now.

The other bad news related to Davis's addition is that they moved CB Sam Shields to I.R. Shields is getting better and expects to play in a few weeks, but the move to I.R. confirmed it's going to still be a few more weeks. The cornerback position has been a dumpster fire this season and the only player who can really turn it around is Shields, but we'll have to wait longer to see him. Rob Demovsky might be correct and it's possible we'll never see Shields in a Packer uniform again. I'd be surprised if the Packers brought him back next season.

So Lacy and Shields are out, and the Packers traded for the best running back who was actually available at the moment. It's a desperation move, but at those two positions, that's the spot they're in. The good news is that Davis can help, especially if he can avoid fumbling the ball.

Packers (3-2) Get Rolled By The Cowboys at Lambeau, 30-16

There were a lot of reasons why the Green Bay Packers should be hanging their heads after trailing for the entire game against the Cowboys, at home, but they never gave themselves a chance with four turnovers.

Fumble!

Aaron Rodgers tries to scramble into the end zone but fumbles and the Cowboys recover on their 4-yard line. pic.twitter.com/mDIoFke94p

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 16, 2016

Five fumbles (three lost) and one terrible INT from QB Aaron Rodgers. Two more fumbles from Rodgers who'll have to spend some more time with the wet-ball drill this week. Whatever else was a concern about the Packers on Sunday might have vanished if they had avoided these turnovers. The turnovers are the story of the game. But there were some other problems.

RB Eddie Lacy. His ankle was re-injured and it was again a problem again this week because there's absolutely zero depth behind him. Plan B can't be WR Ty Montgomery, who's useful as a 3rd down/Reggie Bush type of running back, but they need another real running back option behind Lacy. This might not be something that can fixed until the offseason.

QB Aaron Rodgers. His accuracy has been slipping since the middle part of the 2015 season. Against the Cowboys, it was shocking to see him throw that INT right at a defender and miss high to WR Randall Cobb wide open at the back of the end zone. But these are things that normal QBs do. The INT that QB Dak Prescott threw to SS Morgan Burnett was a bad, inaccurate pass, is one example. Rodgers's worst is still very good and this wasn't going to be his greatest game ever, but it would have been pretty good without those fumbles. Avoid the turnovers and he'll be fine, even if he's never quite as good as he was back in 2011.

CB LaDarius Gunter. With Sam Shields missing another game due to his concussion, Quinten Rollins injured, and Damarious Randall missing most of the game with a recurrence of his groin injury, the Packers relied heavily on Gunter, and he fell way short. On his two worst plays, a long completion to WR Terrance Williams and a touchdown reception to WR Cole Beasley, he was looking into the backfield (or maybe he was thinking about jumping a short route) and got burned when the receivers ran to the sidelines. He looked good last week against the Giants but he was exposed badly against the Cowboys. His only possible, non-injured, replacement is CB Demetri Goodson, who's recently returned from his four game suspension, and he marked his return by drawing a flag for pass interference on almost his first play of the game. Theoretically, rookie CB Josh Hawkins could play more, but he was burned badly by the Lions for a long touchdown and he isn't a strong option either. I'm not a Gunter believer, but they don't have too many options at the moment.

The run defense. It was never that good (2 ypc through the first 4 games) and they didn't tackle well in this one. But they aren't that bad either (Elliott had 5.6 ypc) and the truth is somewhere in between. Their inability to stop the run wasn't the reason they lost this game anyway.

The pass rush. It's been a potent force this season but the Cowboys arguably have the best offensive line in the NFL. Outside of the strip sack by LB Julius Peppers, they couldn't get to Prescott in this game. For as much that was going wrong for the defense in this game (bad coverage, bad tackling against the run, no pass rush) it's actually kind of amazing the Cowboys only scored 30 points. Their pass rush will look much better against practically every other opponent the rest of this season.

They don't have too much time to reflect on this loss as the injury depleted Bears (and LG Josh Sitton!) return to Lambeau on Thursday night. I'm never a fan of Thursday night games and this might be a real stinker between two teams coming off ugly home losses. Go Pack Go!

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants Game Recap

By Steven Callahan, Writer at the Green Bay Packers Blog.

The Green Bay Packers earned a win that could help them greatly in the big picture in the NFC, defeating the New York Giants 23-16. This win snapped a three game-losing streak the Packers had to Eli Manning and the Giants, who are now in a 2-3 hole. The Packers (3-1) were in full control for the entire game, never trailing at any point and totally shutting down the Giants’ offense.

‘

The Packers’ defense held Eli Manning and the rest of the Giants’ offense in check for most of the game, with the only touchdown coming with 2:54 remaining. Eli had his worst game of the season, recording a season-low in yards, completion percentage, and average yards per completion. Eli finished the game with 199 yards on 51.4% passing, with an average of 5.69 yards per completion, one touchdown, and a QB rating of 21.7, just 1.4 points higher than his season-low against the Minnesota Vikings in his previous game.

The Packers’ defense completely shut down the lousy attempt for the Giants to establish any sort of a run game. These are the stat lines for the three Giants’ running backs: Bobby Rainey’s five attempts for 22 yards, Orleans Darkwa’s seven attempts for 11 yards, and Paul Perkins’ two attempts for nine yards. Without Rainey’s 14-yard run and Darwka’s six-yard run, they recorded an average attempt of two yards and one yard on the night.

A key to the Packers’ victory was their win in both the time of possession battle and third-down conversion, which go hand-in-hand. The Packers had the ball for 36:38 on 12 drives while the Giants just had possession for 23:22 on 11 drives. The Packers converted on nine of 19 third down attempts and held the Giants to only four third down conversions on 13 attempts.

Aaron Rodgers had a decent day at the office, but nothing special. Rodgers completed on 51% of his passes for 249 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions for a QB rating of 69.4. Rodgers’ two interceptions came at key moments, the first on the Giants 21-yard line after a 71-yard drive and the other in their own territory in the second quarter that led to the Giants’ second field goal of the game.

With top corners Sam Shields and Damarious Randall ruled out, two second-year corners Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter stepped in and did a fine job on the outside against Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard, while cornerback Micah Hyde and rookie safety Kentrell Brice also excelled in nickel and dime packages. Head coach Mike McCarthy credited his unit after the game saying, “With the young secondary, those young corners did a heck of a job.” Beckham caught five balls for 56 yard and a late fourth quarter touchdown, Sterling Shepard had two receptions for 14 yards on seven targets, and Victor Cruz did not record a single catch.

After their loss to the Minnesota Vikings on national television, many started to doubt how successful the Packers would be this season. After their wins against the Lions, they would have two weeks to focus in on stopping Eli Manning and Odell Beckham, and that is exactly what they did. The Packers now have the upper hand in the Giants in the playoff race and will now look to do the same against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend in another home game.

Packers (3-1) Hold On At Home To Beat Giants, 23-16

With a quarter of the season in the books, its been a mixed bag from the Green Bay Packers. The wins haven't been overly impressive (battling against the Jaguars, holding onto early leads at home against the Lions and Giants) but they weren't terrible in their lone loss either (at Minnesota, losing by one score against arguably the best team in the NFC). Obviously 4-0 and the NFC North lead would be better but 3-1 and a manageable remaining schedule is very good too.

Against the Giants, it was a really impressive performance by the pass defense. While they were missing their starting cornerbacks (Shields and Russell were inactive due to injury), the return of S Morgan Burnett allowed DB Micah Hyde to return to his usual utility role, and CBs LaDarius Gunter and Quinten Rollins were great against the Giants Top 3 receivers (Beckham, Shepard, Cruz). Those three receivers only gained 70 yards on 21 pass attempts to those three receivers. The Packers played both two deep safeties (Clinton-Dix and Burnett) for most of the game and effectively took the sidelines away from the Giants. But they had trouble against the Giants's tight ends (Tye and Adams were targeted 5 times for 64 yards, and QB Eli Manning overthrew Tye on one attempt that might have gone for a touchdown). None of the inside linebackers looked great in coverage, and ILB Joe Thomas had multiple missed tackles. But the run defense was solid again (allowing 2.9 ypc), the pass rush was all over Manning (4 sacks, 5 QB hits), and the secondary had their best game of the season.

I'm still of the opinion that WR Davante Adams is part of the problem, not the solution, but he did have a great game while also being the intended target on one of QB Aaron Rodgers's 2 INTs.

.@AaronRodgers12 throws the 🎯 to @tae15adams for six! 🙌#NYGvsGB #GoPackGo https://t.co/7H0lATiWVe

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) October 10, 2016

But their best receiver was WR Randall Cobb, who seemed to pick up a first down with every reception. On the other hand, while WR Jordy Nelson did catch a touchdown, he was also targeted 13 times for only 4 receptions (and one of his targeted attempts bounced off his hands for an INT). The ground game has been productive, when they've actually used it this season, and RB Eddie Lacy was having his best game of 2016 until he injured his ankle. RB James Starks struggled to replace him as either a receiver or runner in the 2nd half. Overall it was a pretty mediocre performance through the air against a Giants secondary that's been struggling with injuries (both CBs Eli Apple and Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie missed their last game in Minnesota, and both left early in this one).

Though their four-game home stand continues next week, it also presents a bigger challenge when the Cowboys visit Lambeau. The Boys have looked impressive while on their current four-game winning streak despite missing their their two best offensive players (Romo and Bryant). QB Dak Prescott has done a great job protecting the ball while moving the offense, while their defense has been doing just enough to win.

Preview: Packers Host Giants on Sunday Night

The Giants are traveling to Lambeau Field on Sunday night and in need of a change in momentum. They've lost their last two games, their secondary is a mess of injuries, and their star player has been acting like a seven year old though I doubt they'd really consider benching him.

The next move ...... https://t.co/iV5l8a9la1

— Thomas George (@ThomasG2308) October 6, 2016

Both defenses are dealing with similar problems. They are both missing starters in the secondary due to injury, and they've seen their pass defenses starting to unravel. For the Giants, it's more like a death by a thousand cuts, with different receivers burning them at different times over their past two losses. For the Packers, the loss of CB Sam Shields (concussion) has exposed CB Damarious Randall, who's been burned badly by the last two No. 1 receivers he's faced (Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones). It also looked like Randall injured his groin during the first half against the Lions, which is probably why he struggled to keep up with Jones in the second half of that game. SS Morgan Burnett should return on Sunday, but Randall will probably be less than 100% (if he plays) while Shields is still out. Both defenses have been great against the run, though the Packers own a much higher ranking on Football Outsiders.

Both offenses are playing a similar style too (not surprising since Mike McCarthy's former assistant coach Ben McAdoo is now the head coach of the Giants). They both pass the ball much better than they can run it. Neither one is as good this season as they've been in the past, but the Packers are still ranked No. 11 though the air according to Football Outsiders, which is better than the Giants can boast so far. The Vikings were daring the Giants to run the ball last week (often lining up with only six men in the box) and the Giants could only manage 78 yards rushing.

Covering the Giants's receivers under normal circumstances would be a challenge and the injuries in the Packers's secondary are going to make more of a challenge. Because of the poor Giant ground attack, QB Eli Manning might be throwing the ball a lot, and despite the recent meltdown by WR Odell Beckham Jr., they'll probably have much more success this week than they've had during their last two losses.

The Packers offense hasn't been too interested in running the ball either (RB Eddie Lacy's averaging fewer than 15 rushing attempts per game, so far) and a depleted Giants secondary is sure to be QB Aaron Rodgers's main target, even if the Giants see the return of a couple cornerbacks from injury.

The key advantage for the Packers, despite some similarities (they can pass but they can't run, they can stop the run but cannot pass), is that the Packers are a little better at all these things than the Giants. Another key is that while the Giants have been playing (and losing) the past two weeks, the Packers are as healthy as their going to get coming off the bye week. All of this means that the the Packers are listed as heavy 7.5 point favorites (only the Patriots, featuring the return of Tom Brady, who gets to beat up on the Browns this weekend, are more favored).  The game might look like a repeat of the Lions game, with both teams struggling at some point, and the Packers just doing a bit more to hang on for the win.

Green Bay Packers: Post-Bye Schedule

By Steven Callahan, Writer at the Green Bay Packers Blog.

Most people aren’t fans of such an early bye week. They would rather save this week for later in the season, when they can fully recharge their batteries for the second half of the season. The Green Bay Packers unfortunately do not have that luxury this season, as they their bye week falls in week four. In an ironic way, this bye week couldn’t come at a better time.

Head coach Mike McCarthy admits that the Packers caught a break withthis bye week. McCarthy said this week, “I never thought I would say this, but for as different a schedule that we have, it’s a great time to have the bye, because we need it. That’s where we are.” McCarthy is referring to the injury bug that is going around his team, as four defensive starters sat out against Detroit and tight end Jared Cook sprained his ankle.

The Packers head into the bye with a 2-1 record and are coming off a game where Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdowns. Here is how the rest of the schedule looks for the Packers.

October: Giants (2-2), Cowboys (3-1), Bears (1-3), at Falcons (3-1)

The Packers come out of the bye with three straight home games, ending with the Bears in a Thursday night game. The Packers and Giants always seem to have great games while the Cowboys will be looking to avenge the Dez Bryant “Was it a catch?’ game. This game may be Dak Prescott’s final game, as Tony Romo is expected to return after the Cowboys’ bye week. The Giants are definitely a playoff caliber team, but the Packers should have the edge on both the Giants and Cowboys since the games are at Lambeau.

The Packers then face the Bears on a short week. The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league, but these Thursday night games are so unfair on the players and coaches that nothing can be a sure thing. The Packers should be able to handle the Bears, but it should be noted that the Bears beat the Packers last year on a short week (Thanksgiving night). The Falcons offense has been one of the league’s best this season, as their 34.7 points per game is the highest in the league. Expect a shootout in week eight against the Atlanta Falcons.

November: Colts (1-3), at Titans (1-3), at Redskins (2-2), at Eagles (3-0)

The Packers’ schedule lightens up in November, starting off with the Colts at home. Indianapolis depends too much on Andrew Luck’s comeback ability, which isn’t a good idea in a November game at Lambeau. As Mike McCarthy mentioned, the Packers schedule is “different” and this three-game stretch is a perfect example why. The Pack will play three straight road games - four out of five games when you count the Falcons game - including a Sunday night game against the Redskins and a Monday night game against the Eagles.

On paper, the Packers have more talent than all of these teams, but right now the Eagles are playing great and you can’t count out the Colts or Redskins. It will be an interesting month for the Packers.

December and January: Texans (3-1), Seahawks (3-1), at Bears (1-3), Vikings (4-0), at Lions (1-2)

The Packers simply have to beat the Texans at home, so let’s move on from that. Playing the Seahawks in week 14 is as tough of a matchup as you are going to get, especially with these two teams expected to be in the thick of a playoff race. The last three games will come against divisional opponents, two of which will be on the road. The week 16 matchup against the Vikings could possibly be the most important game of the entire season, since it can essentially be for the NFC North crown. Let’s hope the week 17 game in Detroit is meaningless and the Packers know exactly what seed they are in the playoffs, whether it is as division champion or Wild Card team.

With 13 straight weeks of football left for the Green Bay Packers, their stamina, focus, and preparation will be tested for the next three months. There is no soft part of the schedule, as the Packers will have to earn every win from here on out. It should be an exciting 13 weeks for Packers fans. 

Packers (2-1) Hold On To Beat Lions, 34-27

After the Green Bay Packers built up a 31-3 lead over the Lions, it looked like an easy, bounce back win. But with less than a minute to go in the first half, WR Marvin Jones ran by, and ran around, undrafted rookie CB Josh Hawkins for a 73 yard touchdown pass and the Lions made a game of it in the second half.

Rodgers to Nelson again for a @packers TOUCHDOWN! Packers lead @Lions 31-3! https://t.co/mpaQbjRKWv pic.twitter.com/Umer91QeHO

— FOX6 News (@fox6now) September 25, 2016

QB Aaron Rodgers might have felt like he was back, though it was mostly that WR Jordy Nelson was back. Rodgers targeted Nelson early and often, and those two led the team on five first-half scoring drives. But no one else really got going. There was talk of featuring Ty Montgomery and Trevor Davis, and Davis did draw a monster pass interference penalty but he also dropped his only recorded target of the game. Montgomery had a carry (filling the Randall Cobb backfield role) but he didn't have a pass thrown his way. The biggest change was that Rodgers didn't force it to either Davante Adams and Randall Cobb (only 5 targets combined) and instead spread the ball around to several receivers. But it was Rodgers to Nelson that was doing all the damage.

The Lions don't have a great secondary, also about half of their defense is currently injured, so this wasn't much of a test for the Packers' offense. RB Eddie Lacy had another strong game (he's at 5.0 ypc after 3 games) but he's not a big play maker. When he gets into the open field, there's no threat that he's going to outrun any defender. Maybe that's why the Packers kicked the tires this week on free agent RB C.J. Spiller; they could use another explosive player, especially a big play threat in the backfield.

This game was also another big lead at home that Mike McCarthy let become close. I don't disagree with the strategy to run out the clock with a big lead, when your team has nearly any other QB in the league. But Rodgers is so careful with the ball (Week 2 Vikings game excepted) that there's little risk in keeping the playbook wide open. The defense had a lot of trouble getting off the field, the Lions dominated the time of possession battle, and those two late game drives that ended in punts couldn't have come at a worse time for the defense.

As for the defense:

#Packers defense a few plays ago:
DL: Ringo, Price
LB: Perry, Thomas, Ryan, Fackrell
DB: Hawkins, Gunter, Rollins, Hyde, Clinton-Dix.

— Jason Wilde (@jasonjwilde) September 25, 2016

That unit is scrapping the bottom of the roster's barrel. That lineup was probably last used in the final mop-up, rest all the starters, preseason game at Kansas City. That's not a great NFL defense.

But that's where they are after all their injuries. I liked CB Josh Hawkins during the preseason, but he's a work in progress and Marvin Jones proved he's not ready. I've been up-and-down on CB LaDarius Gunter over the last year, but he's starting to look better with some more playing time. Both 2015 draftees, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins, were terrible against the Lions (Randall was dealing with something) and no matter what happened against the Lions it's another bad game for both of them, and another sign that they're both regressing instead of improving. Randall at least made up for it some what with another INT.

But the run defense was once against outstanding (though the Lions have been inept at running the ball for the past few seasons) and the pass rush was strong even without OLBs Clay Matthews and Datone Jones. Nick Perry had 2 sacks in an expanded role (and a stupid 15 yard penalty) while rookie Kyler Fackrell had his first NFL sack against the Lions rookie 1st round LT. The run defense and the pass rush was still there, even while the secondary fell apart without CB Sam Shields. It looks like Shields will return later this season, but his retirement might be happening soon because of the severity of his concussions. What was looking like a strong position back in August is becoming a major concern in the short and long terms.

I dislike early bye weeks, but the Packers are dealing with so many early season injuries that they could use the week off right now. Their next game might be a match-up nightmare against the Giants, who feature three quality wide receivers while the Packers might not currently have a single, healthy cornerback who'd have any chance against WR Odell Beckham Jr. But it'll also be at Lambeau, a week after the Giants take on the Vikings in Minnesota, so the Giants might be worn out while the Packers are rested and had two weeks to prepare.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Preview

Steven Callahan is a new writer at the Green Bay Packers Blog and I'm very pleased to publish his first article.

The Detroit Lions (1-1) and Green Bay Packers (1-1) both are coming off games they know they should have won. The Lions blew a 15-3 fourth quarter lead to the Tennessee Titans at home, while the Packers lost to the Minnesota Vikings 17-14 on Sunday Night Football. It is obviously way too early to talk about playoff implications, but all division games in the NFL mean a lot.

The Lions saw the Titans score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, including an Andre Johnson red zone touchdown catch while he had three Lion defenders draped on him. This is the second straight game the Lions defense gave up big points late in the game. They allowed Andrew Luck and the Colts to score 17 in the fourth quarter of their season opener in a game they nearly let slip out of their hands.

The Packers offense looked below average against the stingy Vikings defense, scoring just two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers played pedestrian at best, throwing for 213 yards, one touchdown, and one interception for a quarterback rating of 52.8, far below his 103.8 career rating (the highest of all-time, no big deal). The Vikings defense seemed to rattle Rodgers, sacking him five times, and never letting him get into a groove. Besides a 39-yard catch by Jordy Nelson, there was no other completion over 15 yards.

The Packers and Lions had two very memorable games last season. After losing 24 straight games in Lambeau Field, the Lions finally won in Green Bay for the first time since 1991. The Packers got their revenge and still figured out a way to torment the Lions, as Aaron Rodgers’ prayers were answered on a 61-yard Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers at Ford Field. Rodgers threw the ball 70 yards in the air, something only he can do.

For the Packers, the game will be decided on both sides of the passing game. Matthew Stafford is currently seventh in the league with 600 passing yards and tied for second place in touchdowns with five. However, the Lions have been one of the worst pass defenses, ranking 22nd with 592 passing yards allowed and 28th with 5 passing touchdowns allowed. Rodgers has owned the Lions in his career, throwing an average of 253 yards per game, 26 touchdowns, and averaging a QB rating of 105.9. All these stats have combined for a career 11-3 record against them.

The Packers also need to take advantage of the Lions’ lack of discipline. The Lions committed an eye-popping 17 penalties for 138 yards and got three touchdowns (3!) called back along with five first downs due to penalties last week. Rodgers and the offense need to take advantage and test this Lions’ secondary, as it is likely they either give up a big play or get called for a penalty. The defense also needs to create pressure all game, as the Lions have been called for nine offensive holding penalties this year. This could mean big games for Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews on the edge.

There has been a lot of talk this week about the Packers not playing up their standards. A NFL executive has said, “This isn’t a typical Ted Thompson roster. They need Aaron Rodgers to cover up more holes than usual. There has been some deterioration there.” So what better way to address the state of the team than beating the Lions at home? The Lions are a team filled with defensive problems as well as injuries, with running back Ameer Abdullah being placed on the IR, and also Ezekiel Ansah, DeAndre Levy, and Kyle Van Noy not practicing.

The Lions are hurting, can’t stop the pass, and entering an environment where they have won once in 24 years. Look for Aaron Rodgers to get back on track in his first game at Lambeau this season. The Packers have to seize this opportunity to send a message to the league that they may be working out the kinks, but they are still one of the best teams in the NFL. However, if the Packers do lost this game, it may not be time to R-E-L-A-X.

Bench Davante Adams, Fix The Packers Offense

I don't really know if all it would take to improve the Green Bay Packers offense is for them to bench WR Davante Adams, but its an easy thing to do and there's a professional consensus forming that Adams is not part of the solution.

I think Davante Adams is the worst WR in the NFL who gets significant snaps. Can anyone offer a better suggestion?

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) September 20, 2016

Also, Davante Adams is not a great route runner.

— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) September 19, 2016

Speaking of Cian Fahey, his look back at QB Aaron Rodgers's 2015 season might be the definitive work on the subject, and he came to the conclusion that Rodgers's biggest problem is that he can't catch the ball for his receivers. He specifically points out the limitations with Adams and TE Richard Rodgers (their 2nd leading receiver in 2015, amazingly). Rodgers has already lost his starting job to TE Jared Cook, but Adams has remained the No. 3 receiver so far.

The downside with giving it a try, benching Adams as the No. 3 receiver in favor of someone else, doesn't have much downside. Adams currently boasts a decent ranking according to Football Outsiders in part because he leads the league by a mile in yards gained on pass interference calls. He's also sporting a terrible 43% catch rate, though he is more likely to be asked to catch a low-percentage deep ball then anyone else on the team so far. The positives have been one great TD grab at Jacksonville and two DPIs accepted. The negatives have been a fumble, multiple drops, and some bad route running. The negatives seem to outweigh the positives so far. While it's only been two games so far this season, this comes on the heels of a terrible 2015 season, so there's been plenty of time to evaluate that Adams just isn't a positive on offense.

Also the Packers do have some options, apart from the receiver who's been wearing a club on his hand (WR Jeff Janis). I'm not convinced that any one of Ty Montgomery, Jared Abbrederis or Trevor Davis is going to be a star but they can't be much worse than Adams anyway. As a deep threat, Davis might be the most natural replacement to stretch the field, as they've been trying to do with Adams, until Janis is able to use both hands.

I just want to see them try anyone over Adams for a while and see what happens.

Packers (1-1) Lose To The Vikings In Minnesota, 17-14

It was infuriating to watch the Green Bay Packers struggle to move the ball, at all, on offense in the first half, and to watch WR Stefon Diggs destroy CB Damarious Randall, but as I look back while writing this article, most of their team played great against the Vikings. Instead there were some key battles that they did not win, and it cost them.

Win!

The running game. The Packers aren't giving RB Eddie Lacy a lot of carries, and they aren't using him as a receiver at all, but he's been effective running the ball. One run in particular, LG Lane Taylor (he's no Josh Sitton) was shoved three yards backwards into Lacy, but Lacy cut it back, ran through a couple defenders, and got almost 10 yards on the play. On the flip side, for the second week in a row, their opponent was held to under 2 ypc by the re-vamped front seven (plus the first game for Kenny Clark). The Vikings offensive line didn't have much of a solution to stopping the pass rush either as LB Julius Peppers led the way on 1.5 of their 4 sacks and on 3 of their 10 QB hits. The Vikings couldn't run the ball or protect QB Sam Bradford.

While WR Ty Montgomery did block a punt, the Vikings also pinned the Packers inside the 20 yard line on FIVE other punts. The Packers were killed by field position, and the Vikings had no turnovers on offense to flip the field position in the Packers' advantage.

Lose!

Trae Waynes picks off Aaron Rodgers to seal game https://t.co/YvrXWG5Lhj

— Kevin Koenig (@KevinKoenig305) September 19, 2016

I don't know if QB Aaron Rodgers throws that pass if it wasn't 3rd down with time running out in the game. They'd been picking successfully on CB Trae Waynes all night for a bunch of interference calls and a TD pass. Except the pass was going WR Davante Adams, who seems to run the softest routes of any of their receivers, and Waynes was able to jump in front of him for the INT. An incompletion wouldn't have been setting up 4th and long, and if there was more time on the clock, my guess is that Rodgers puts more air under that ball where only Adams could catch it. Instead he threw it more in the field of play to give Adams a better chance, and Waynes beat him.

I wish they would take Adams out of the offensive rotation. Whatever good feelings he gave off in Week 1 against the Jaguars, he gave back in this game. And Adams was a disaster last season. In the second half, they started using two TEs as receivers, especially Jared Cook, and the offense seemed to open up. If they want to keep the defense honest with an occasional bomb, send Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb deep and keep Adams off the field.

Damarious Randall. I've been down on him since late last season, and he's still trending downward. With Quinten Rollins also struggling, and Sam Shields out with a concussion, he's at the top of a short list of options to stop their opponent's No. 1 receiver. It was appropriate that he was beaten on the game losing 3rd down attempt and committed interference against Diggs.

It's harsh to beat up two guys (Adams and Randall) for a team loss, this would have been a much different game without all those fumbles for example, but both of them were asked to step up when the team needed them at the end and they came up short. They'll stick with Randall for now, because they don't have a lot of options and he deserves time to turn it around this season, but they need to evaluate what the best role for him is on the team in the future because it might not be at corner. At receiver, they have other options instead of Adams and I hope this game proved that enough is enough with Adams.

Speaking of Adams, his lowest point as a Packer was when he was targeted 21 times for 79 yards last season in their first home loss against the Lions in forever, and next week they face the Lions again in Lambeau. This would be a good time to re-think the offense without Adams in it.

Packers (1-0) Beat The Jaguars in Jacksonville, 27-23

It wasn't the easiest win, as the Green Bay Packers fell behind in the first half, re-took the lead before halftime, and were able to match field goals with the Jaguars in the second half to hold onto the win. As I was watching it, I was thinking about how it would have been a huge let down to lose to an 11 loss team in what might be their easiest road game of 2016. But the Jaguars are better now and one game isn't going to make or break their season.

An early INT by Blake Bortles turned out to be his only turnover of the game, and some big pass plays to Allen Hurns, Marcedes Lewis, and Julius Thomas led their offense. Anyone who plays fantasy football knows the Jaguars have some legitimate offensive weapons. Also the Jaguars have spent a lot of money on their defense in free agency (mostly to Malik Jackson) and used a Top 5 draft pick on Jalen Ramsey (who's feeling a bit cocky at the moment). If they had put more pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers (zero sacks) then they might have had a shot at shutting down the Packers' offense. But they couldn't stop Eddie Lacy (4.4 ypc) and Rodgers finished with the 4th highest QBR in Week 1 (so far).

Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable.
It's that simple.#GBvsJAX https://t.co/KI1rGSLUvG

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) September 11, 2016

Packers offense: So above is one of the plays that'll be on the short list for plays of 2016. His offensive line played great, though they would have been even better with former LG Josh Sitton. Bob McGinn had a great article about how the front office blew it with Sitton, though his loss is still not going to be a season changing mistake. His replacement, LG Lane Taylor, probably had the lowest grade of their five lineman according to PFF by surrendering three QB hurries (I recall one play when ILB Paul Posluszny ran right past Taylor) but his run blocking appeared strong and he didn't allow a sack.

WR Jordy Nelson was back, and Rodgers again focused in on his top three receivers. This time it was Davante Adams joining Nelson and Cobb, and those three were targeted on 24 of his 33 attempts (73%). It was a big surprise that TE Jared Cook was only targeted twice, and he might have been a help early in the game when Rodgers struggled to get the ball to Nelson and Adams (3 straight punts in the first half). Rodgers barely played this preseason, Nelson didn't play at all, and everyone's timing looked bad as they shook off the rust in the first half. I was ready to give up on Adams after he missed two catchable passes on 3rd downs but he redeemed himself later.

Mike McCarthy started the game by calling a lot of running plays, but that faded as the game went on, and Lacy ended up with only 14 carries. I'd like to see a lot more from Lacy but he'll probably just remain a complementary weapon.

Packers defense: Speaking of players who barely played this preseason, the defense featured two of them, with only one of them being a success story in Week 1. The success was ILB Jake Ryan, who was held out for most of the preseason with a hamstring injury. Against Jacksonville, he was second on the team with 7 tackles and he was very active in the middle of the field, usually tackling T.J. Yeldon for a short gain. The entire defense did a great job against the run (Jags only had 1.8 ypc) and Ryan was a big part of it. The bad news was Morgan Burnett, who had an impressive stat line (9 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for a loss), but committed two penalties (both led to 1st downs) and he looked a step slow in coverage. While Ryan was able to play in their final preseason game, Burnett's back injury (which kept him out for most of the preseason) might still be bothering him.

The front seven did a great job against the Jaguars offensive line. Bortles did a good job of getting the ball out as quickly as he could before the pass rush came, but the Packers still had 3 sacks and shut down the Jaguars' running game. Nick Perry was great against the run and he spent a lot of time in the Jaguars' backfield (1 sack, 2 tackles for a loss) while Clay Matthews missed a couple tackles and Julius Peppers didn't record a single stat. Joe Thomas grabbed the lone INT and he was in on the final stop to end the game. It was a quiet game for Mike Daniels (hopefully it wasn't an SI cover jinx) but that was mostly because he faced a bunch of double-teams.

The secondary was a mixed bag. Burnett struggled and CB Quinten Rollins allowed a TD pass. On the other hand, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was great and Damarious Randall had the top defensive grade from PFF. I was worried about Randall after a bad playoff game and a poor preseason (in limited playing time) but he's bounced back.

Next up is a big game, Sunday Night Football to open the Vikings's new US Bank Stadium on September 18.

Packers 2016 Roster: Josh Sitton Released, Signs With Bears

Every year I write a post before the start of the season about the players who were kept or released by the Green Bay Packers, and the composition of their initial practice squad. Most of these moves weren't a surprise, though I expected a couple more players like Janis and Davis would end up on I.R. instead of the 53-man roster, and the practice squad is made up of most of the players I expected. But one move was just shocking:

#Packers release guard Josh Sitton: https://t.co/w7jErwKXoB pic.twitter.com/AvnfZq0yzg

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 3, 2016

This was unbelievable. I couldn't write about it on the Saturday when it happened. It took me two more days to process it and try to come a conclusion of why they did it. It would have been OK if they allowed him to leave in free agency after the season, gained a compensatory draft pick for their loss, and moved onto the next man up. I don't agree with the timing of this move, and the following is the best sense I can make of it.

McCarthy: This is about growth for our football program. Every decision we make is in the best interest in improving all aspects of program.

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 5, 2016

When asked point blank if Sitton's release makes the Packers a better team, Mike McCarthy dodged the question. Instead he made the above statement. Sitton's release probably doesn't make them a better team for Week 1 at Jacksonville, but he thinks this will be better overall for the team. How this makes "all aspects of (the) program" better is open to speculation.

McCarthy on new starter Lane Taylor: "He’s earned this opportunity. He’s done a very good job particularly in the run blocking" 1/2

— Packers Barroom (@PackersBarroom) September 5, 2016

McCarthy 2/2: "The pass protection and some of the things – how we do it and what we do – is something he just needs some game experience"

— Packers Barroom (@PackersBarroom) September 5, 2016

Lane Taylor, their new starting left guard, was so bad during their last preseason game against Kansas City that I thought he would be the player being released on Saturday, not Sitton. But this decision isn't just about one preseason game. They've been watching Sitton for the past eight years and Taylor for the past four years. All of that experience went into their decision. McCarthy seems to be saying that Taylor is just as good as a run blocker and he'll be a good pass blocker with more game experience. He might be right, he might be wrong.

The only really notable thing McCarthy said on Sitton, without really saying it, is that the guard position isn't as important as others.

— Aaron Nagler (@AaronNagler) September 5, 2016

McCarthy digressed a little bit and talked about premium vs. non-premium positions. He called the quarterback the most important position on the team, and while he didn't specifically say his guards were playing a non-premium position, that's the implication. Playing a lesser, but still good, player at guard won't change the outcome of any game. I think the switch from Sitton to Taylor is going to lead to at least a couple more sacks this season. At the most, three or four. Of course, it only takes one sack to cause a significant injury to Aaron Rodgers but that appears to be an acceptable risk in their book, and guards are a lot less likely to make bad plays that lead to sacks than tackles. They felt this is a risk worth taking because of all the benefits it provides (salary cap room for extensions, avoiding the risk of Sitton's decline due to weight loss and/or bad back, sometimes Sitton could be a pain in the ass).

I don't like this move, but I'm usually on the wrong side of hanging onto to veterans for too long. The release of Josh Sitton feels all kinds of wrong, but it's more likely that this was the right decision when we're looking back on it in a few years.

Packers Preseason Game 4, Packers Lose To Chiefs, 17-7

The last preseason game for the Green Bay Packers is usually a downer, with most all the starters sitting, and this one was no exception. It was also the first preseason game this year against a team that made the playoffs last season, which is currently run by former Packer scouting director John Dorsey, so it also featured the best level of competition they've faced so far.

Packers offense:

The problem was the offensive line, which featured the same five backup players throughout, plus some snaps for undrafted rookie Kyle Steuck at guard. When QB Joe Callahan wasn't running for his life, he was getting sacked. The running backs had no where to go (2.4 ypc). The lineman committed multiple holding and illegal blocking penalties. When you can't protect the QB or run the ball, the offense is going nowhere.

RT Kyle Murphy allowed a couple more sacks and showed he isn't ready to pass protect in the NFL. LG Lane Taylor was all-around terrible. C Don Barclay was floating his long snaps to Callahan and didn't prove that he can play inside this season any better than he played tackle last season. Rookie LT Jason Spriggs was again solid, except for a couple plays when he lost his balance and taken out of the play, which has happened to him in every preseason game. However, undrafted free agent Lucas Patrick was impressive, and his only struggles seem to be related to the giant club he's had to play with on his injured right hand. They better stash him on the practice squad.

WRs Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery are on my bubble, and neither one stood out. Both started out strong, Montgomery even blocked a punt on special teams, and then they both did nothing except drop passes in the second half.

Second pick of the preseason for @J_HawKkk! #GBvsKC #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/x9nCPQFuCR

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 2, 2016

Packers defense:

It looked like they were playing with no inside linebackers. Even ILB Blake Martinez struggled during his brief playing time. This was the first preseason game for ILB Jake Ryan and he looked a step behind on every play. Both Chiefs rushing TDs happened when the ILB failed to make the tackle in the backfield. ILB Carl Bradford didn't show the same rush to the ball that he's had earlier this preseason.

There wasn't much of a pass rush either. OLB Reggie Gilbert did nothing, and OLB Kyler Fackrell only stepped up after the bottom of the Chiefs roster started playing late in the game. All the interior tackles played well, and they probably gave GM Ted Thompson something of a good problem to sort out who to keep.

Backup QB Tyler Bray led both Chiefs' TD drives, and after a slow start for him (this was his first preseason game) he took advantage of soft coverage from the Packer defensive backs. The coverage scheme was easy for a veteran like Bray to read, so was it the DBs fault for behind a step behind or was it the scheme? If it is the fault of the scheme, that's not a problem because they won't be playing that the exact same coverage throughout an entire game during the regular season. They did record two INT (Josh Hawkins seen above plus another from LaDarius Gunter) and only had two pass interference/holding penalties. This is still a deep group of backups, and deciding who to keep won't be easy.

Packers special teams:

With no offense from either team for long stretches of the game, it was a punting clinic, and it provided a good opportunity to watch new Packer punter Jacob Schum. He doesn't have a big leg (his 45.5 yard average was 10 yards less per punt than Chiefs P Dustin Colquitt) but he was more consistent than former P Tim Masthay (almost all of Schum's punts were near the sidelines) and he was better at pinning them inside the 10 yard line. Masthay's best punts are probably better than Schum's best punts, but the Packers will probably know what to expect from Schum on each play compared to Masthay's inconsistent punting.

📸 @AaronRodgers12 & Alex Smith postgame.#GBvsKC pic.twitter.com/X5cb3HiR0P

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 2, 2016

It's time to shave the mustache, put the jersey back on, and get ready for the regular season starting in 10 days at Jacksonville. This is going to be a great team, no matter how the final roster cuts work out over the weekend, and they're currently favored to win every, single one of them.

Packers Cut Roster To 75 and Claim Punter Jacob Schum

The biggest news today was the terrible knee injury to Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, which ends his 2016 season before it even begins and puts a question mark on the rest of his NFL career. There is an argument to be made that the Vikings offense might still have a good season if they focus on Adrian Peterson.

Meanwhile the Green Bay Packers had to trim their roster down to 75. From ESPN:

Packers moves: Waived -- DT Demetris Anderson, CB Randall Jette, WR Jamel Johnson, LB Derrick Mathews, P Peter Mortell, WR Ed Williams, WR Harvey Binford. Injured reserve -- TE Kennard Backman, C Jacob Flores, TE Mitchell Henry, Crockett, Walker. Traded -- McCray.

He looked like the lesser punter this preseason and unfortunately the storybook dream of Peter Mortell is not meant to be. None of the other players released had received much playing time this preseason, and I.R. takes care of a couple tough roster decisions, especially with Backman and Josh Walker.

The conditional 7th round pick received for OLB Lerentee McCray might turn out to be nothing if he can't make the Bills 53-man roster, but it's a nice return for a player that only cost them a $50,000 signing bonus and was playing at one of their deeper positions. They would have probably released him if they hadn't made this trade, despite his good preseason performance as a pass rusher.

And surprisingly the Packers also added a new player:

#Packers claim punter Jacob Schum, release Tim Masthay: https://t.co/stLr8YDn4n pic.twitter.com/HSb14e5sDa

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 30, 2016

Masthay is coming off a poor 2015 season and he didn't show much improvement this preseason (though he did punt better than Mortell), so taking a chance on Schum doesn't cost them much. But kicking the tires on the comparison of Schum over Masthay doesn't show why this is a good idea. According to Football Outsiders, the Buccaneers were worse at punting in 2015 than the Packers, and Schum had the worst gross punting average in the NFL last season. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter praised Schum back in February and said the stats don't define him because he can kick it to a certain spot. But I heard the preseason announcers recently saying that McCarthy praised Mortell for his directional punting, and that didn't win Mortell an NFL job. Also, a month after Koetter spoke glowingly of Schum, the Bucs went out and signed free agent Bryan Anger to replace Schum anyway.

While this should be a low risk move to try and upgrade a weak position, the Derrick Frost situation back in 2008 is the counter-argument that they should stay with the punter (Masthay) who they know instead of the possibly inconsistent punter (Schum) they might have just acquired. I wouldn't have minded them going after a punter who was clearly better than Masthay or Mortell, but they don't seem to have found a clearly better punter in Schum. Of course, the market for proven punters is kind of crazy, like trade a 4th round pick crazy, so Schum is probably the best they could have done.

Vincent Verhei on The Packers and the 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac

Vincent Verhei (@FO_VVerhei) wrote the chapters on the NFC North for the always excellent 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac. The chapter on the Green Bay Packers focused on two interesting points. The Packer defense has been coordinated by Dom Capers since 2009 using a similar scheme and concepts in each of those years, but the Packers' defense has been widely variable in those years, from really good (2009, 2010) to really bad (2011, 2013) and places in between (2012, 2014-2015). Also, the wide receivers last season, as a group, for the Packers were really bad to mediocre without Jordy Nelson. I asked him a couple questions about how the Packers compare to the rest of the NFC North and whether there's any hope for Davante Adams.

FINALLY. The Kindle edition of FOA 2016 is available for $17.99. https://t.co/I7Vsa4Nant

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) August 26, 2016

"You wrote the chapters on all the NFC North teams so what would you say is the one advantage and one disadvantage the Packers have compared to the rest of the conference?"
Well, the first question is easy: the Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and for sure the best in the division. Chicago's Jay Cutler and Detroit's Matt Stafford are both pretty average starters, though Stafford has more upside considering he's still only 28. The consensus Football Outsiders opinion on Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater is that he has a very bright long-term future, but we're still skeptical about his targets in the passing game in 2015.

And the second question is just as easy: inside linebacker. While the Bears have added Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, Detroit is getting back a healthy DeAndre Levy, and Minnesota has
up-and-comer Eric Kendricks, the Packers are trying to keep their heads above water with a collection of low-round draft picks and undrafted players who nobody else wanted. I know the Packers are high on fourth-rounder Blake Martinez, but if he were likely to step in and make a big impact he wouldn't have lasted to the 131st pick.

"You wrote about the high year-to-year variance from Dom Capers's defenses and the pass defense was pretty good last season (-6.8%, ranked 6th best) so is there something (or some player) to watch for as a sign that they've regressed this season? Or am I being too pessimistic and should be looking for a player to emerge this season that could turn their defense into one of the best?"
I guess the single biggest concern going into 2016 would be the pass rush. Julius Peppers is 37 this year, while Clay Matthews is 31 and might wind up playing inside a lot again. Nobody else on the team had more than four sacks last year. Capers blitzes a lot, so they should be able to generate some pressure regardless, but without a dominant one-on-one edge rusher those blitzes will be much easier to pick up.

"Is there any hope for Davante Adams this season? The player analysis in the Wide Receivers section was absolutely brutal. And it was absolutely right; he was terrible and I've never seen a wide receiver play so badly with Aaron Rodgers, at least one with so many targets. Thinking historically, is there a wide receiver you could compare to him to that played as badly as Adams played last season who went on to have at least a good career?"
I checked our Similarity Scores for wide receivers who put up similar numbers to Adams in the first two years of their careers and found a surprising number of guys who turned out OK. Bobby Engram topped 900 yards in his third and fourth seasons, and finally went over 1,000 at age 34 in Seattle. Pittsburgh's Charles Johnson went over a thousand yards in his third year. Cincinnati's Carl Pickens topped a thousand yards four times in five seasons starting in Year 3.

Of course, all of those players started their careers in the 1990s, when numbers were very different. More recent wideouts similar to Adams include long list of first-round busts: Bryant Johnson, Josh Reed, Troy Williamson, Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Cordarrelle Patterson.

So two seasons in, the best-case scenario for Adams appears to be "productive complementary wideout," and the worst-case scenario is …well, more seasons like 2015.

Packers 2016 Preseason Game 3, Packers Defeat 49ers, 21-10

We aren't going to see any Green Bay Packers highlights this season featuring QB Joe Callahan (or WR Geronimo Allison) so...

👏👏👏

Watch this 51-yard @JoeCallahan4 to @813MrFreakShow connection from every angle 🎥 : https://t.co/eBcBvBPq0c pic.twitter.com/kcWMJixDYk

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 27, 2016

Preseason wins are meaningless but this is the 3rd preseason game in which the Packers starters and potential backups looked collectively better than their opponents. It's also been their 3rd game against three non-playoff teams in 2015 but it's the best we have to evaluate them.

Packers offense:

They'll keep Callahan on the practice squad (or maybe the active roster for a little while if Brett Hundley's ankle is still bothering him) but I can't believe they had any intention of keeping three QBs on the 53-man roster this season. Callahan's still too limited physically to be worried about any other team claiming him, but his accuracy on the deep ball has been impressive.

The starting offense was together for the first time (excepting WR Jordy Nelson) and their first series was a rusty, penalty filled mess. This happens every year and it's better to get it out of the way in the preseason than in Week 1. Their second series was a touchdown drive so it got better quickly.

The offensive line (starters and backups) have looked great this preseason and it's the best collective group I've seen in years. The Packers are usually struggling to find a decent 7th or 8th offensive lineman to keep and this year they'll have no trouble. Even C Don Barclay's looked good at center, though he did get lost on his first snap of the preseason and allowed a safety. LT Jason Spriggs played well again (after a shaky game last week against the Raiders) even with a club on his hand for an entire half. Undrafted G Lucas Patrick hasn't played much but he was a pleasant surprise against the 49ers. I had been high on rookie RT Kyle Murphy but he was a disaster in pass protection during the second half. The Packers might be able to release him now and sign him to the practice squad, he looked that bad in pass protection. They might also have an extra spot if C Corey Linsley (who still hasn't even practiced) has to go on I.R. JC Tretter isn't quite as good as Linsley but the step down is small. Barclay might have to stay if Linsley can't play, and with Spriggs and probably Murphy, there shouldn't be any more open roster spots for lineman.

Usually it's a case of keeping the backup wide receivers who don't drop the ball during preseason games but this year's group has been outstanding. There's an extra roster spot with Jeff Janis almost certain to go onto season ending I.R. but even then there's probably not room for Allison, who is still behind rookie Trevor Davis, and Davis might only stick for a while as a 6th receiver if they decide they need an extra one while they ease Nelson back. Neither Davante Adams or Ty Montgomery has shown much this preseason but they should both stay due to their high draft status. Maybe they're looking to trade Adams or Montgomery?

I'm not expecting a lot of big plays at tight end from Jared Cook but he looks like the player that I hoped Richard Rodgers would become last season. His speed and size make him a tough matchup and he'll get 10 yards on any slot route if they can get him into single coverage. Justin Perillo's been active every game this preseason and he looks set for the 3rd TE job. Though I didn't recall seeing Kennard Backman at all against the 49ers, he should still be on the roster.

As long as FB Aaron Ripkowski's knee injury isn't serious (reportedly not) they might only keep him, and RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks. They should keep one more back on the practice squad and that spot might come down to whoever's healthy (Crockett's shoulder injury looked painful on the sidelines). They only needed Crockett last season on the active roster because of Lacy's issues, and those issues appear to be in his past.

Packers defense:

DT Kenny Clark didn't make the trip (he was held out as a precaution) and DT Letroy Guion's knee injury reportedly won't keep him out for Week 1. But DT Mike Pennel's four game suspension is looming and they did look outmatched up front when DT Mike Daniels and Pennel weren't in the game. Those four (plus rookie DE Dean Lowry) should be the only five lineman they keep. Probably someone else for the first four games while Pennel's suspended. DT Christian Ringo has probably played the best of the rest but they are looking at more than just sacks when evaluating what they want at tackle.

Speaking of rust, he was only in for several plays during his first action of the preseason, but Julius Peppers lost contain on RB Carlos Hyde for the big play on the 49ers only TD drive. But of course Peppers will start opposite Clay Matthews while Nick Perry and Datone Jones are the backups. Rookie Kyler Fackrell isn't going to be an elite pass rusher but he appears to do everything well, and his high draft status will provide him a roster spot. Jayrone Elliott, Reggie Gilbert and Lerentee McCray will be hoping there's room left for them.

After a shaky first preseason game, ILB Blake Martinez has reassured me that he's the best of the bunch on the inside over these past two games. Before his injury, it looked like ILB Sam Barrington was going to be the every down inside backer who's not great but good at everything (run defense, covering TEs, slot receivers, etc.). Instead that job now belongs to Martinez, who's reminding me of former Packer Nick Barnett. ILB Carl Bradford's in good roster shape after a solid preseason while injuries have kept away his competition. ILB Joe Thomas was out against the 49ers (it's a muscle injury, a few days after a shin injury, and even if neither are serious it comes at the worst time for him). ILB Jake Ryan is back at practice but he hasn't been active for a preseason game yet; he'll have to showcase himself in their final preseason game. They can make room for five inside backers on the roster but I don't know if that's necessary. Maybe they'll choose between Bradford and Thomas plus the other three (Martinez, Barrington, and Ryan).

They've got some choices to make in the secondary among safeties Kentrell Brice and Marwin Evans, who have both played well this preseason, along with Josh Hawkins at cornerback. But these three are still deep down the depth chart, they'll only play if there are injuries, and it's those injuries that concern me. Chris Banjo doesn't think his injury is serious but hamstring injuries can linger (ask Jake Ryan) and Morgan Burnett has hardly played this preseason. The starting corners haven't looked lock-down this preseason (Sam Shields got beat for a would-be TD pass if Blaine Gabbert hadn't overthrown his receiver, and Damarious Randall's shaky preseason continued with a touchdown lateral to the receiver he was covering). The good news is that safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix keeps looking better and I'm wondering what his ceiling is (high for sure). Plus CB/S/DB Micah Hyde is there to fill in the gaps. They've got options here but there might be too many options at the bottom of the roster and injuries are looming.

Overall this hasn't been a surprising preseason (they're beating lesser teams, their starters look good, and they've got quality depth) and the the 2016 draft class is looking solid, but not spectacular. One more tune up against the Chiefs to finalize the roster and then onto the regular season.