Packers (4-2) Bounce Back and Dominate Bears, 26-10

It was close game in the first half because the Green Bay Packers had two drives stall within field goal range and another one end at the Bears's one yard on a failed 4th down run by WR Ty Montgomery. But the game was never in doubt because the Bears's offense never showed up, which was kind of surprising because the Bears's offense came in ranked No. 19 overall vs. the Packers No. 14 overall, according to Football Outsiders. They should have been able to keep pace to some degree but they couldn't do anything except patch together one scoring drive for a field goal in the first half.

The Bears's offense would have been better if they hadn't lost QB Brian Hoyer to a broken arm in the first half, but they already were without WR Eddie Royal, who missed the game due to a toe injury. The Packers have been getting killed by No. 1 receivers but WR Alshon Jeffery, who's having a great season, couldn't get anything going with only 3 receptions on 11 targets. Four days ago, CB Ladarius Gunter was getting torched by the Cowboys but he was looked like a quality NFL CB against the Bears.

The Packers came into this game with an advantage on special teams but they gave that away because K Mason Crosby had his worst night in a while. He missed a field goal and had his first missed extra point since 2014. Those two misses kept it a two score game and theoretically gave the Bears a chance. But their offense played so badly, and backup QB Matt Barclay couldn't do anything except throw 2 INTs, so they never really had a chance.

On offense, it was QB Aaron Rodgers's first 300 yard passing game in a while and he played very well, except for another fumble that was recovered in the end zone by the Bears for their only touchdown. Montgomery had another strong receiving game but his running game is not working. RB Knile Davis was limited because he doesn't know the playbook yet and they weren't able to use him yet. WR Randall Cobb had another great game and it was his 2nd consecutive game with a TD reception. WR Jordy Nelson was a forgotten man. And the big story was the huge game by WR Davante Adams.

A career night for @tae15adams!

Every catch from the @packers' WR tonight. 👇 #CHIvsGB #TNF https://t.co/xiSOgTnOQ8

— NFL (@NFL) October 21, 2016

I'm not Adams's No. 1 Fan, but he started out the season with a touchdown reception against Jacksonville and he's slowly getting better this season. But I don't want to make too much out of his this game. If you watch all 13 receptions, you'll see that Adams is either wide open due to a busted coverage or being covered by CB De'Vante Bausby. If Bausby's name doesn't ring any bells, it's probably because he was undrafted in 2015 and promoted from the Bears's practice squad about 5 minutes ago. The Packers used a lot of multiple receiver sets to expose Bausby in one-on-one coverage and Adams torched him. He's not going to get that favorable of a match-up every week.

Now the Packers have a little extra time off until they face the Falcons on October 30. Rodgers should like playing in the dome but this should also be a major challenge for them. The Falcons's offense is really humming along so far this season. They're also currently ranked ahead of the Packers according to Football Outsiders, and so far the Packers have beaten all the teams ranked below them while losing to two teams ranked ahead of them.

Bench Davante Adams, Fix The Packers Offense

I don't really know if all it would take to improve the Green Bay Packers offense is for them to bench WR Davante Adams, but its an easy thing to do and there's a professional consensus forming that Adams is not part of the solution.

I think Davante Adams is the worst WR in the NFL who gets significant snaps. Can anyone offer a better suggestion?

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) September 20, 2016

Also, Davante Adams is not a great route runner.

— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) September 19, 2016

Speaking of Cian Fahey, his look back at QB Aaron Rodgers's 2015 season might be the definitive work on the subject, and he came to the conclusion that Rodgers's biggest problem is that he can't catch the ball for his receivers. He specifically points out the limitations with Adams and TE Richard Rodgers (their 2nd leading receiver in 2015, amazingly). Rodgers has already lost his starting job to TE Jared Cook, but Adams has remained the No. 3 receiver so far.

The downside with giving it a try, benching Adams as the No. 3 receiver in favor of someone else, doesn't have much downside. Adams currently boasts a decent ranking according to Football Outsiders in part because he leads the league by a mile in yards gained on pass interference calls. He's also sporting a terrible 43% catch rate, though he is more likely to be asked to catch a low-percentage deep ball then anyone else on the team so far. The positives have been one great TD grab at Jacksonville and two DPIs accepted. The negatives have been a fumble, multiple drops, and some bad route running. The negatives seem to outweigh the positives so far. While it's only been two games so far this season, this comes on the heels of a terrible 2015 season, so there's been plenty of time to evaluate that Adams just isn't a positive on offense.

Also the Packers do have some options, apart from the receiver who's been wearing a club on his hand (WR Jeff Janis). I'm not convinced that any one of Ty Montgomery, Jared Abbrederis or Trevor Davis is going to be a star but they can't be much worse than Adams anyway. As a deep threat, Davis might be the most natural replacement to stretch the field, as they've been trying to do with Adams, until Janis is able to use both hands.

I just want to see them try anyone over Adams for a while and see what happens.

Packers (1-1) Lose To The Vikings In Minnesota, 17-14

It was infuriating to watch the Green Bay Packers struggle to move the ball, at all, on offense in the first half, and to watch WR Stefon Diggs destroy CB Damarious Randall, but as I look back while writing this article, most of their team played great against the Vikings. Instead there were some key battles that they did not win, and it cost them.

Win!

The running game. The Packers aren't giving RB Eddie Lacy a lot of carries, and they aren't using him as a receiver at all, but he's been effective running the ball. One run in particular, LG Lane Taylor (he's no Josh Sitton) was shoved three yards backwards into Lacy, but Lacy cut it back, ran through a couple defenders, and got almost 10 yards on the play. On the flip side, for the second week in a row, their opponent was held to under 2 ypc by the re-vamped front seven (plus the first game for Kenny Clark). The Vikings offensive line didn't have much of a solution to stopping the pass rush either as LB Julius Peppers led the way on 1.5 of their 4 sacks and on 3 of their 10 QB hits. The Vikings couldn't run the ball or protect QB Sam Bradford.

While WR Ty Montgomery did block a punt, the Vikings also pinned the Packers inside the 20 yard line on FIVE other punts. The Packers were killed by field position, and the Vikings had no turnovers on offense to flip the field position in the Packers' advantage.

Lose!

Trae Waynes picks off Aaron Rodgers to seal game https://t.co/YvrXWG5Lhj

— Kevin Koenig (@KevinKoenig305) September 19, 2016

I don't know if QB Aaron Rodgers throws that pass if it wasn't 3rd down with time running out in the game. They'd been picking successfully on CB Trae Waynes all night for a bunch of interference calls and a TD pass. Except the pass was going WR Davante Adams, who seems to run the softest routes of any of their receivers, and Waynes was able to jump in front of him for the INT. An incompletion wouldn't have been setting up 4th and long, and if there was more time on the clock, my guess is that Rodgers puts more air under that ball where only Adams could catch it. Instead he threw it more in the field of play to give Adams a better chance, and Waynes beat him.

I wish they would take Adams out of the offensive rotation. Whatever good feelings he gave off in Week 1 against the Jaguars, he gave back in this game. And Adams was a disaster last season. In the second half, they started using two TEs as receivers, especially Jared Cook, and the offense seemed to open up. If they want to keep the defense honest with an occasional bomb, send Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb deep and keep Adams off the field.

Damarious Randall. I've been down on him since late last season, and he's still trending downward. With Quinten Rollins also struggling, and Sam Shields out with a concussion, he's at the top of a short list of options to stop their opponent's No. 1 receiver. It was appropriate that he was beaten on the game losing 3rd down attempt and committed interference against Diggs.

It's harsh to beat up two guys (Adams and Randall) for a team loss, this would have been a much different game without all those fumbles for example, but both of them were asked to step up when the team needed them at the end and they came up short. They'll stick with Randall for now, because they don't have a lot of options and he deserves time to turn it around this season, but they need to evaluate what the best role for him is on the team in the future because it might not be at corner. At receiver, they have other options instead of Adams and I hope this game proved that enough is enough with Adams.

Speaking of Adams, his lowest point as a Packer was when he was targeted 21 times for 79 yards last season in their first home loss against the Lions in forever, and next week they face the Lions again in Lambeau. This would be a good time to re-think the offense without Adams in it.

Packers (1-0) Beat The Jaguars in Jacksonville, 27-23

It wasn't the easiest win, as the Green Bay Packers fell behind in the first half, re-took the lead before halftime, and were able to match field goals with the Jaguars in the second half to hold onto the win. As I was watching it, I was thinking about how it would have been a huge let down to lose to an 11 loss team in what might be their easiest road game of 2016. But the Jaguars are better now and one game isn't going to make or break their season.

An early INT by Blake Bortles turned out to be his only turnover of the game, and some big pass plays to Allen Hurns, Marcedes Lewis, and Julius Thomas led their offense. Anyone who plays fantasy football knows the Jaguars have some legitimate offensive weapons. Also the Jaguars have spent a lot of money on their defense in free agency (mostly to Malik Jackson) and used a Top 5 draft pick on Jalen Ramsey (who's feeling a bit cocky at the moment). If they had put more pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers (zero sacks) then they might have had a shot at shutting down the Packers' offense. But they couldn't stop Eddie Lacy (4.4 ypc) and Rodgers finished with the 4th highest QBR in Week 1 (so far).

Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable.
It's that simple.#GBvsJAX https://t.co/KI1rGSLUvG

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) September 11, 2016

Packers offense: So above is one of the plays that'll be on the short list for plays of 2016. His offensive line played great, though they would have been even better with former LG Josh Sitton. Bob McGinn had a great article about how the front office blew it with Sitton, though his loss is still not going to be a season changing mistake. His replacement, LG Lane Taylor, probably had the lowest grade of their five lineman according to PFF by surrendering three QB hurries (I recall one play when ILB Paul Posluszny ran right past Taylor) but his run blocking appeared strong and he didn't allow a sack.

WR Jordy Nelson was back, and Rodgers again focused in on his top three receivers. This time it was Davante Adams joining Nelson and Cobb, and those three were targeted on 24 of his 33 attempts (73%). It was a big surprise that TE Jared Cook was only targeted twice, and he might have been a help early in the game when Rodgers struggled to get the ball to Nelson and Adams (3 straight punts in the first half). Rodgers barely played this preseason, Nelson didn't play at all, and everyone's timing looked bad as they shook off the rust in the first half. I was ready to give up on Adams after he missed two catchable passes on 3rd downs but he redeemed himself later.

Mike McCarthy started the game by calling a lot of running plays, but that faded as the game went on, and Lacy ended up with only 14 carries. I'd like to see a lot more from Lacy but he'll probably just remain a complementary weapon.

Packers defense: Speaking of players who barely played this preseason, the defense featured two of them, with only one of them being a success story in Week 1. The success was ILB Jake Ryan, who was held out for most of the preseason with a hamstring injury. Against Jacksonville, he was second on the team with 7 tackles and he was very active in the middle of the field, usually tackling T.J. Yeldon for a short gain. The entire defense did a great job against the run (Jags only had 1.8 ypc) and Ryan was a big part of it. The bad news was Morgan Burnett, who had an impressive stat line (9 tackles, 1 sack, 1 tackle for a loss), but committed two penalties (both led to 1st downs) and he looked a step slow in coverage. While Ryan was able to play in their final preseason game, Burnett's back injury (which kept him out for most of the preseason) might still be bothering him.

The front seven did a great job against the Jaguars offensive line. Bortles did a good job of getting the ball out as quickly as he could before the pass rush came, but the Packers still had 3 sacks and shut down the Jaguars' running game. Nick Perry was great against the run and he spent a lot of time in the Jaguars' backfield (1 sack, 2 tackles for a loss) while Clay Matthews missed a couple tackles and Julius Peppers didn't record a single stat. Joe Thomas grabbed the lone INT and he was in on the final stop to end the game. It was a quiet game for Mike Daniels (hopefully it wasn't an SI cover jinx) but that was mostly because he faced a bunch of double-teams.

The secondary was a mixed bag. Burnett struggled and CB Quinten Rollins allowed a TD pass. On the other hand, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was great and Damarious Randall had the top defensive grade from PFF. I was worried about Randall after a bad playoff game and a poor preseason (in limited playing time) but he's bounced back.

Next up is a big game, Sunday Night Football to open the Vikings's new US Bank Stadium on September 18.

Packers Preseason Game 4, Packers Lose To Chiefs, 17-7

The last preseason game for the Green Bay Packers is usually a downer, with most all the starters sitting, and this one was no exception. It was also the first preseason game this year against a team that made the playoffs last season, which is currently run by former Packer scouting director John Dorsey, so it also featured the best level of competition they've faced so far.

Packers offense:

The problem was the offensive line, which featured the same five backup players throughout, plus some snaps for undrafted rookie Kyle Steuck at guard. When QB Joe Callahan wasn't running for his life, he was getting sacked. The running backs had no where to go (2.4 ypc). The lineman committed multiple holding and illegal blocking penalties. When you can't protect the QB or run the ball, the offense is going nowhere.

RT Kyle Murphy allowed a couple more sacks and showed he isn't ready to pass protect in the NFL. LG Lane Taylor was all-around terrible. C Don Barclay was floating his long snaps to Callahan and didn't prove that he can play inside this season any better than he played tackle last season. Rookie LT Jason Spriggs was again solid, except for a couple plays when he lost his balance and taken out of the play, which has happened to him in every preseason game. However, undrafted free agent Lucas Patrick was impressive, and his only struggles seem to be related to the giant club he's had to play with on his injured right hand. They better stash him on the practice squad.

WRs Davante Adams and Ty Montgomery are on my bubble, and neither one stood out. Both started out strong, Montgomery even blocked a punt on special teams, and then they both did nothing except drop passes in the second half.

Second pick of the preseason for @J_HawKkk! #GBvsKC #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/x9nCPQFuCR

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 2, 2016

Packers defense:

It looked like they were playing with no inside linebackers. Even ILB Blake Martinez struggled during his brief playing time. This was the first preseason game for ILB Jake Ryan and he looked a step behind on every play. Both Chiefs rushing TDs happened when the ILB failed to make the tackle in the backfield. ILB Carl Bradford didn't show the same rush to the ball that he's had earlier this preseason.

There wasn't much of a pass rush either. OLB Reggie Gilbert did nothing, and OLB Kyler Fackrell only stepped up after the bottom of the Chiefs roster started playing late in the game. All the interior tackles played well, and they probably gave GM Ted Thompson something of a good problem to sort out who to keep.

Backup QB Tyler Bray led both Chiefs' TD drives, and after a slow start for him (this was his first preseason game) he took advantage of soft coverage from the Packer defensive backs. The coverage scheme was easy for a veteran like Bray to read, so was it the DBs fault for behind a step behind or was it the scheme? If it is the fault of the scheme, that's not a problem because they won't be playing that the exact same coverage throughout an entire game during the regular season. They did record two INT (Josh Hawkins seen above plus another from LaDarius Gunter) and only had two pass interference/holding penalties. This is still a deep group of backups, and deciding who to keep won't be easy.

Packers special teams:

With no offense from either team for long stretches of the game, it was a punting clinic, and it provided a good opportunity to watch new Packer punter Jacob Schum. He doesn't have a big leg (his 45.5 yard average was 10 yards less per punt than Chiefs P Dustin Colquitt) but he was more consistent than former P Tim Masthay (almost all of Schum's punts were near the sidelines) and he was better at pinning them inside the 10 yard line. Masthay's best punts are probably better than Schum's best punts, but the Packers will probably know what to expect from Schum on each play compared to Masthay's inconsistent punting.

📸 @AaronRodgers12 & Alex Smith postgame.#GBvsKC pic.twitter.com/X5cb3HiR0P

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 2, 2016

It's time to shave the mustache, put the jersey back on, and get ready for the regular season starting in 10 days at Jacksonville. This is going to be a great team, no matter how the final roster cuts work out over the weekend, and they're currently favored to win every, single one of them.

Vincent Verhei on The Packers and the 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac

Vincent Verhei (@FO_VVerhei) wrote the chapters on the NFC North for the always excellent 2016 Football Outsiders Almanac. The chapter on the Green Bay Packers focused on two interesting points. The Packer defense has been coordinated by Dom Capers since 2009 using a similar scheme and concepts in each of those years, but the Packers' defense has been widely variable in those years, from really good (2009, 2010) to really bad (2011, 2013) and places in between (2012, 2014-2015). Also, the wide receivers last season, as a group, for the Packers were really bad to mediocre without Jordy Nelson. I asked him a couple questions about how the Packers compare to the rest of the NFC North and whether there's any hope for Davante Adams.

FINALLY. The Kindle edition of FOA 2016 is available for $17.99. https://t.co/I7Vsa4Nant

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) August 26, 2016

"You wrote the chapters on all the NFC North teams so what would you say is the one advantage and one disadvantage the Packers have compared to the rest of the conference?"
Well, the first question is easy: the Packers have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and for sure the best in the division. Chicago's Jay Cutler and Detroit's Matt Stafford are both pretty average starters, though Stafford has more upside considering he's still only 28. The consensus Football Outsiders opinion on Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater is that he has a very bright long-term future, but we're still skeptical about his targets in the passing game in 2015.

And the second question is just as easy: inside linebacker. While the Bears have added Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency, Detroit is getting back a healthy DeAndre Levy, and Minnesota has
up-and-comer Eric Kendricks, the Packers are trying to keep their heads above water with a collection of low-round draft picks and undrafted players who nobody else wanted. I know the Packers are high on fourth-rounder Blake Martinez, but if he were likely to step in and make a big impact he wouldn't have lasted to the 131st pick.

"You wrote about the high year-to-year variance from Dom Capers's defenses and the pass defense was pretty good last season (-6.8%, ranked 6th best) so is there something (or some player) to watch for as a sign that they've regressed this season? Or am I being too pessimistic and should be looking for a player to emerge this season that could turn their defense into one of the best?"
I guess the single biggest concern going into 2016 would be the pass rush. Julius Peppers is 37 this year, while Clay Matthews is 31 and might wind up playing inside a lot again. Nobody else on the team had more than four sacks last year. Capers blitzes a lot, so they should be able to generate some pressure regardless, but without a dominant one-on-one edge rusher those blitzes will be much easier to pick up.

"Is there any hope for Davante Adams this season? The player analysis in the Wide Receivers section was absolutely brutal. And it was absolutely right; he was terrible and I've never seen a wide receiver play so badly with Aaron Rodgers, at least one with so many targets. Thinking historically, is there a wide receiver you could compare to him to that played as badly as Adams played last season who went on to have at least a good career?"
I checked our Similarity Scores for wide receivers who put up similar numbers to Adams in the first two years of their careers and found a surprising number of guys who turned out OK. Bobby Engram topped 900 yards in his third and fourth seasons, and finally went over 1,000 at age 34 in Seattle. Pittsburgh's Charles Johnson went over a thousand yards in his third year. Cincinnati's Carl Pickens topped a thousand yards four times in five seasons starting in Year 3.

Of course, all of those players started their careers in the 1990s, when numbers were very different. More recent wideouts similar to Adams include long list of first-round busts: Bryant Johnson, Josh Reed, Troy Williamson, Greg Little, Mohamed Massaquoi, Cordarrelle Patterson.

So two seasons in, the best-case scenario for Adams appears to be "productive complementary wideout," and the worst-case scenario is …well, more seasons like 2015.

Packers 2016 Preseason: Win Over Raiders

This was an odd preseason game to evaluate for the Green Bay Packers. With so many stars sitting in these first two preseason games, it's not like we're watching the team that's going to play in the regular season opener, and there are few starting jobs being fought over. JC Tretter and Blake Martinez both played well, but it might not matter at all if they're just keeping the seats warm for Corey Linsley and Jake Ryan, respectively. It's important to avoid injuries (the ankle injury doesn't appear serious for QB Brett Hundley) and sort out the battles at the end of the bench. Speaking of which...

Last night was a dream come true.. #BeyondBlessed #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/RiKdAVdclM

— Josh Hawkins (@J_HawKkk) August 19, 2016

After two games, the biggest surprise has been CB Josh Hawkins. Among the rookies, maybe Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez might have outplayed him, and among the returning players, it's good to see ILB Carl Bradford emerge. But I know who those guys are and I knew little of Hawkins before he stood out in both preseason games. On the play pictured above, Hawkins went up high to make a play on the ball and grab the INT on a pass that should have been over his head.

Offensive evaluation:

After an opening TD drive that featured RB Eddie Lacy (who's looked better than last season, so far), maybe the plan was to air it out with Hundley, but instead he re-injured his ankle shortly after Lacy took a seat. The injury did show that rookie LT Jason Spriggs isn't yet up to pass blocking against an All-Pro like DE Khalil Mack. After Hundley left, the Packers called a lot of running plays for James Starks and John Crockett, and by the end of the game they were almost exclusively calling running plays for QB Marquise Williams. That ground heavy performance did make the offensive line look good, and showed that rookie RT Kyle Murphy is a pretty good run blocker, but it provided few opportunities for the receivers.

Impressive play on the boundary bodes well for the #Packers.

Insider Inbox 📬: https://t.co/j4U6I7SBmP pic.twitter.com/reoTl2UwLR

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) August 20, 2016

But when they did throw the ball, they did have success throwing to WR Davante Adams. Mike McCarthy also complemented Adams during his post-game press conference. After a disappointing sophomore season, Adams is starting to show the promise that was expected last year. The only negative in the passing game was all the incompletions thrown to WR Ty Montgomery who is slowly moving down the depth chart this preseason.

Defensive evaluation:

With a lot of sure tackling and great coverage by the secondary, the Raiders struggled to get much of anything going against the Packers' first or second team defenses. Outside of two long completions to Amari Cooper and Seth Roberts, the Raiders moved the ball little through the air, and only averaged 2.4 ypc on the ground. I would like to stop seeing CB Damarious Randall stop getting beaten in coverage, and his INT wasn't a big sign of improvement when he had to push off (not called) to make the play. On the ground, the Raiders had little success moving the Packers' tackles off the line, and the Packers' linebackers did a good job of moving through all the traffic around the line of scrimmage to make the tackles.

But the one thing that was really missing was their pass rush. The Packers didn't record a single sack or even a quarterback hit. Part of that was the result of the Raiders' QBs getting the ball out of their hands quickly. If the Packers were hoping LB Nick Perry and/or LB Kyler Fackrell were going to provide a consistent pass rush this season, it hasn't worked out so far.

Special teams:

It's kind of pointless to discuss special teams during the preseason, when the Packers are using so many different players on each unit compared to the ones who will be lining up during the regular season. But the Raiders scored their only touchdown when CB LaDarius Gunter whiffed on a block that led to a blocked punt recovered in the end zone. The return situation hasn't looked great either, other than a couple nice returns from rookie WR Trevor Davis, who seems unlikely to stick with so many other receivers ahead of him on offense.

So the Packers didn't look bad, and they mostly looked really good, but this is all happening with a number of key players sitting out and/or hurt. At least it looks like the Packers are a deep team, if they need to call on that depth later in the regular season due to injuries.

Packers 2016: First Week of Training Camp In The Books

While the Green Bay Packers had their annual Family Night scrimmage over the weekend, and it's always impressive to see the fans come out in such huge numbers for a practice, it doesn't tell you anything (yet) about the players. Maybe Jared Abbrederis was impressive and maybe Davante Adams wasn't. But it doesn't matter until you see them play in a preseason game, and maybe it doesn't even matter then if someone like Adams is already penciled in as the starter by the coaches and isn't being asked to do much during the preseason.

So far, the good news is that the Packers have few injuries. And while some players are out, it gives other players a chance to prove themselves. Both WR Jordy Nelson and Ty Montgomery are on the PUP list (so that's provided Abbrederis more practice time). Also, LB Sam Barrington is on the PUP list (though I still expect him to become the starter when he's ready) and his absence has given rookie LB Blake Martinez a big opportunity:

Blake Martinez making good impression, on track for a big role in #Packers' defense https://t.co/KUU2UZwcM4 pic.twitter.com/KphGBP0oaY

— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) August 2, 2016

It might be a little bit concerning that Barrington is still unable to practice but we don't know all that's gone on with him over the past year during rehab. Maybe it's still precautionary and nothing more. Though it's a little surprising that Martinez has seemed to have moved ahead of LB Jake Ryan, or maybe the coaches know what they have in Ryan and want to see what Martinez can do. None of them are going to be mistaken for Luke Kuechly but at least the Packers have options and it looks like they found a good player in Martinez.

It's super early, there hasn't been any real football played yet that can truly evaluate the players, and they don't play their first preseason game until next Sunday, August 7. I'm glad the season is getting closer but I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.

Packers Lose Another NFC North Game At Home: Bears 17, Packers 13

It was appropriate that the Green Bay Packers' last offensive play against the Chicago Bears was an incomplete pass to WR Davante Adams. There might have been nothing he could have done on that particular play but this post is going to be all about him.

Mistakes pile up on offense in loss to Bears. #Packers locker room report: https://t.co/OQQswbiK9q pic.twitter.com/6CmeRDo7G4

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 27, 2015

When the offense is struggling, it's usually because one thing is broken. In prior years, sacks have been a major problem and its easy for one sack to put the brakes on an entire drive, even if it doesn't happen on 3rd down. It's the same with incomplete passes, and while fingers could be pointed at WR James Jones (who had zero receptions on six targets against the Bears) for disappearing from game-to-game, or WR Randall Cobb for a down season, the spotlight is glaring on Adams.

Currently Adams has a negative DYAR ranking according to Football Outsiders. Most receivers are positive, but there are some good receivers with negative one. WR Dez Bryant currently has a negative DYAR because of his foot injury and the three headed QB hydra that's been a problem all season in Dallas. Adams had a high ankle sprain earlier this season to blame, but it looks a lot worse when you compare Adams to all the other receivers that have registered a negative DYAR since 2008 (the first year QB Aaron Rodgers became a starter):

Player	Season	Passes	DYAR
Davante Adams	2015	64	-28
Jarrett Boykin	2014	12	-38
Myles White	2013	12	-21

It's a very short list and only includes wide receivers who had at least 10 targets during any season since 2008. Neither White or Boykin are still with the team (for good reason) and at least with them, they were obviously not part of the solution and given very few opportunities. On the other hand, the Packers have been forcing the ball into Adams over the past few weeks and he led the team in targets during each of their losses to the Lions and the Bears. During those two close, home losses, on passes to Adams, Rodgers was 12 for 32, 93 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT.

Obviously that's cherry picking, another player to pick on is James Jones who had zero catches for zero yards in those two games. But Adams hasn't made up for it in other games so they could overlook his flops (and drops) against the Lions and Bears. Adams doesn't have a single receiving touchdown in 2015, and his negative DYAR not only stands out poorly in 2015, Aaron Rodgers has never had a receiver struggle like Adams.

Mike McCarthy said after the Bears game that he's going to make changes. Adams is the obvious choice, but TE Richard Rodgers also has a negative DYAR in 2015 (he was negative in 2014 too) and might have fallen behind TE Justin Perillo. Run and pass blocking might also play a factor in this decision too.

The first replacement for Adams is probably WR Jeff Janis. While it may seem like it's about time, over their last two games, Janis has played on 32 offensive snaps and he's had the ball thrown to him twice for zero receptions. It doesn't look like he's getting open and/or earned his quarterback's trust. It's probably a stretch to imagine either WR Jared Abbrederis or WR Ty Montgomery will return to health by Thursday. There's someone on the practice squad, but I'm not going to even consider him. If injuries are still a problem, there isn't a strong Plan B available.

So the good news is that there is a solution. Focus on the good receivers with positive DYAR (Cobb, Jones, Janis, Perillo) and significantly reduce the roles of the receivers who are negative (Adams, Richard Rodgers). Both Adams and Rodgers were 2014 draft choices and still probably need time to develop, but if it hasn't happened yet then it's probably not happening this season. They can be considered as part of the future but not the present. The playoffs are still within sight as they currently hold a wild card spot, and have two more NFC North games remaining. Making an adjustment to their offensive game plan, along with the healthy return of RB Eddie Lacy over their last two games, could get them right back on track for the NFC North title.

Packers Lose Third Straight; Embarrassing Loss At Home To 1-7 Lions

The only good news is that the Green Bay Packers have seven more games to figure out what's gone wrong over the past three losses. As bad as it looks now, it wasn't this way four weeks ago. They're certainly capable of making adjustments and getting themselves back on track.

On defense: where's my pass rush? Another week, another zero sack game. They played another shaky offensive line, but they still haven't gotten to the quarterback and it only seems to be getting worse. They've got play makers (Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones) and they have to start making plays.

On offense: it's frustrating because they've scored 28 points combined in their last two fourth quarters but only 10 points combined in the last two first halves. Dropped passes were a problem and QB Aaron Rodgers and his receivers often don't seem to be on the same page. It didn't help that Rodgers's accuracy was off early in the game. But the biggest problems were WR Davante Adams and WR James Jones:

Davante Adams has about 20 targets and has done almost nothing with them. It's unbelievable how Rodgers just keeps trying.

— Frank Schwab (@YahooSchwab) November 15, 2015

Adams ended the game with 21 targets and 79 yards. That's about as inefficient as it gets. Their best receiver this season has been Jones, and he had zero receptions in this game and has only 3 in their last three games. Throwing the ball 21 times to your worst receiver and only twice to your best receiver is not a successful formula. They knew that Adams would be going up against a back-up cornerback and this might have been their attempt to push him into a big game.

The receiver who did step up against the Lions was TE Justin Perillo. I've thought that the best option would be for the Packers to get as many receivers involved in the passing game as possible, to compensate for the loss of WR Jordy Nelson. Rodgers was a combined 16 of 18 for 134 yards and 2 TDs on passes to Perillo, TE Richard Rodgers and RB James Starks. These three receivers aren't getting separation in the passing game against anyone but they're also big receivers and if anyone's great at throwing a receiver open, it's Aaron Rodgers. These bigger guys have to run their route and fight for the ball when it comes to them in tight coverage.

I don't want to make a big deal out of WR Jared Abbrederis's game. It was great that he got his first NFL reception and caught 4 passes for 57 yards, but he also had a fumble out of bounds and suffered a rib injury. If he's having trouble staying healthy and holding onto the ball, he's not going to be a help. WR Randall Cobb had another inefficient game as he continues to struggle as the No. 1 receiver, but they just have to keep him involved and hope he can improve as the entire offense improves.

Also, for the second consecutive game, the interior of the offensive line struggled. Against Carolina, the pass blocking assignments were missed in the first half, and against the Lions, the run blocking assignments were missed. The Lions's defensive tackles were in on nearly every running play right at the line of scrimmage. The running game has vanished in too many games this season and it's putting more strain on the struggling pass offense.

So the answer on offense should be less of Adams and Cobb and more of everyone else. Aaron Rodgers got into the habit last season of leaning heavily on his top two receivers (for good reason, they both had a great season) but that isn't the case anymore. They also should be more aggressive on 4th down, especially on their opponent's side of the 50 yard line. It would help if WR Ty Montgomery would return since he's been their 2nd most efficient receiver (behind James Jones) this season according to Football Outsiders. This is the third week in a row that they came into a game with a plan, and it didn't work. If the players can't execute the plans that have been drawn up, it's time to find some new plans.

All The Packers Must Fix The Offense Articles Are Coming Out After Getting Clobbered By The Broncos

The short answer remains that the Green Bay Packers miss WR Jordy Nelson. By one measure, he accounted for 40% of their passing offense in 2014. So now some good intentioned articles are focusing on how the Packers can improve mid-season without Nelson.

The Packers have problems. What's ailing Aaron Rodgers and the offense, and how it can be fixed. By @Andy_Benoit https://t.co/t2geFndZ5J

— The MMQB (@theMMQB) November 2, 2015

Author Andy Benoit liked it when the Packers brought a wide receiver out of the backfield on short passes. I actually wish the Packers would do that more with RB Eddie Lacy instead of WR Randall Cobb, though Cobb has better hands. There's always the potential for a big play when Lacy has the ball in the open field and he hasn't been nearly productive enough this season in Nelson's absence.

When I initially looked at how the Packers could replace Nelson, I focused on the Packers getting more receivers involved in 2015. That hasn't happened but here's who can step up.

WR Davante Adams. He's missed most of the season with ankle injuries but finally returned against Denver. Unfortunately he did next to nothing in the Broncos game but it was only his first game back. He's got to get better as the season goes on.

WR Ty Montgomery. He's been sparingly used and plays an almost identical role to Cobb but he's also been the 2nd best WR of those who have had fewer than 32 targets this season. An ankle injury kept him out against Denver and he'll be welcomed back.

TE Justin Perillo. Perillo is the preferred No. 2 TE at the moment. The answer might be more receivers out in the formation with fewer blockers, and Perillo could become that forgotten TE in two-TE sets that can take advantage of a linebacker in coverage.

RB Eddie Lacy. He too has been battling an ankle injury but looked like his old self in the Denver game. Hopefully he can finish the season strong.

But maybe nothing will help as much as avoiding negative plays and converting on a higher rate of 3rd downs. Their 3rd down conversion percentage has been slowly sinking all season long, and it bottomed out at 25% against the Broncos. Remember that early drive when Lacy carried it twice from on 2nd and 3rd and short when they didn't pick up the 1st down? They can't afford any negative rushing plays at the moment and have to find plays that work on 3rd and short.

As much as the knee injury to Nelson has been the big story of the season on offense, a lesser story is the trifecta of ankle injuries (Adams, Montgomery, Lacy) that has taken away the three players who combined could replace Nelson's production. It's next man up time for one (or more) of these players to make the offense better for the rest of the season.

Packers Family Saturday Night Practice

It's just another practice, but it takes place in front of 67,000 and is live streamed, so it's not just another day of training camp for the Green Bay Packers.

Check out our gallery from #Packers Family Night http://t.co/T4aYxNbxNG pic.twitter.com/kDccJQUbeK

— Packers News (@PGPackersNews) August 9, 2015

A few things I took away from the practice:

The backup quarterbacks struggled. QB Aaron Rodgers also threw a pick but I'm not worried about him. All three backups have NFL potential but none of them, so far, has shown that they can put it all together in a game setting. QB Scott Tolzien would seem to be the leader in that category since he's been with them since 2013, but he didn't get into the end zone on the two-minute drill to end practice, and he had a long discussion with Mike McCarthy afterwards, appearing to discuss what went wrong. McCarthy looked a bit frustrated during the conversation.

The backup wide outs dropped passes. WR Davante Adams put on a show during practice, and you know Nelson and Cobb are one and two on the depth chart. Rookie 3rd round WR Ty Montgomery has gotten off to a great start (and he was a great college player), and even practice squad WR Myles White has received praised. They look like the top five receivers and everyone else (Abbrederis and Janis being the most notable) appear to be on the wrong side of the roster bubble because they aren't healthy (Abbrederis has been recovering from a concussion) or been dropping passes.

NT B.J. Raji. I'm not his biggest fan, but it was good to see him back on the field. With the exception of second year DT Mike Pennel, who had a couple moments last season, they played without a nose tackle last season. Seeing Raji's large frame back on the field actually looked like a good sign for the defense.

How The Packers Can Attack Seattle's Secondary

This comment doesn't take away from Seattle's great defense, but I was surprised at how few great quarterbacks they've faced in recent weeks. To start the season, they won against Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning but lost to Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo. Over their past eight games, they've faced Cam Newton, Shaun Hill, Ryan Lindsey, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, Drew Stanton, and Alex Smith. Their defense has been fantastic over those last eight games, but that's not the greatest quarterback challenge either. Aaron Rodgers, even with a bad calf, is better than those last seven quarterbacks.

How can Rodgers, #Packers target #Seahawks secondary? All-22 look at 3 route combinations: http://t.co/lB3VUS7weo pic.twitter.com/SkEiEgtOcz
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) January 14, 2015

His article is written like something that a former NFL safety would love, and it's a bit heavy on concepts and formations, but he found three examples of big plays against the Seahawks's defense (which he admitted were hard to find). Two of them were passes to tight ends, and twice it showed how to exploit a linebacker in coverage. Just as TE Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers were surprise helpers in their win over the Cowboys, the Packers are going to have to use them again to exploit Seattle's linebackers in coverage.

The last time a quarterback had a good game against Seattle's defense was arguable on November 9th, when Eli Manning wasn't too bad in a 38-17 loss. Unsurprisingly he got a big game from WR Odell Beckham Jr. but he also got a career game out of third string WR Preston Parker. So another big game out of WR Davante Adams is important. In the season's opener, no Packer wide receiver other than Nelson and Cobb caught a single pass and that can't happen again.

For something completely different, the last team when the Chiefs beat the Seahawks, they did it in large part by calling more running plays for Jamaal Charles than pass attempts for Alex Smith. Maybe that was just what the Chiefs had to do because of their quarterback and lack of decent wide receivers, but it's something to consider when the Packers have Eddie Lacy available.

In the end, no pass heavy or run heavy attack is the answer. The Packers will need a combination of both, and every receiver on the team is going to have to deliver.

Lang Attempts to Explain Personal Foul Penalty Versus Cowboys

We all saw how unintelligent Packers OL T.J. Lang's personal foul penalthy was in Sunday's second half against the Cowboys, but still, Lang's trying to explain it. 

Here's his full quote regarding his seemingly random knocking down of a Dallas player early in the contest's third quarter, courtesy of The Green Bay Press-Gazette's Mike Woods:

"I was jogging down there, saw Davante fighting for extra yards, saw a guy wrapping him up still trying to take him to the ground and I thought I heard the whistle as soon as I made contact with the guy. I didn't think it was late, that's not the kind of game I play. I just try to take care of my guy."

Reaction: Rodgers rallies Packers to playoff win over Cowboys

Not trying to brag, but I called this score perfectly. Anyway, here are my thoughts on the Packers' 26-21 win today over the Cowboys, which gives them a spot in next week's conference championship game in Seattle:

1. Aaron Rodgers Knows How to Play Hurt:

He didn't for the first half, but once Demarco Murray reached the endzone to make it 21-13 he finally figured it out. Just watch the replay of that touchdown pass to Richard Rodgers to see what I mean. 

2. Andrew Quarless and Davante Adams are better than we think:

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb didn't do much this afternoon, but at least Quarless and Adams were there to pick up the slack.

3. Karma: 

Go ahead, Cowboys fans. Blame the refs for this loss. You know very well the ball hit the ground there, not to mention that your team only played this week because of that picked up flag against the Lions.

On to the Seahawks.

McCarthy Assures Media: Adams' Recent Drops Not Part of Him Hitting Rookie Wall

Packers WR Davante Adams has no doubt struggled with drops lately, but team Head Coach Mike McCarthy doesn't think he's hitting a rookie wall.

Here's his full quote, courtesy of The Green Bay Press-Gazette's Ryan Wood:

"Rookie wall? I would think with the CBA and this new schedule we're on, it doesn't exist. I think the education that's in place with today's rookies gives them the chance to get through that first year, which when you break it down, it's remarkable what a rookie goes through. He finishes his (college) season and he's training for the combine, and then he goes from the combine and then he's training for the draft, and then he gets drafted and he goes right through."

Jordy Nelson Is Number One, But Spreading The Ball Around Has Made The Packers Offense Better

Sam Monson has written the definitive post about the Green Bay Packers first game with Clay Matthews at inside linebacker (don't call him an inside linebacker!) and should be read by anyone interested in his new position/role on defense.

Another interesting point raised this week was that QB Aaron Rodgers threw two of his six touchdown passes against the Bears to tight ends, which doubled the number of touchdown passes thrown to tight ends this season. He has been throwing more passes in general to TEs Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers in recent weeks and he's been spreading the ball around to the benefit of the offense.

Below are the number of targets to their top receivers so far this season, pro-rated out to 16 games in the next column, and compared to the number of times each player was targeted in 2013.

Receiver	2014 Targets	2014 Projected	2013 Targets
Nelson	84	149	126
Cobb	60	107	46
Lacy	30	53	44
Adams	37	66	0
Quarless	27	48	54
Richard Rodgers	14	25	0
Jones	0	0	93
Boykin	8	14	82
Finley	0	0	34

One interesting note is that overall the Packers haven't run as many offensive plays this season. So when you combine the projected number of targets to Quarless and Rodgers (73) and compare that to the total targets in 2013 to Quarless and Jermichael Finley (88), it's down but overall the number of plays are down anyway.

The number of pass attempts to Eddie Lacy is up slightly, and passes that last year went to James Jones and Jarrett Boykin (so much for his breakout season) have gone to a healthy Randall Cobb and rookie Davante Adams, though not as many. However, the one player that jumps out is Jordy Nelson.

Watch all the big plays from last night's win, including this impressive Jordy Nelson TD: http://t.co/NUr8sZxDhj pic.twitter.com/c8iaJEkRG4
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 10, 2014

29% of all pass attempts have been targeted at Nelson, which leads the team by a wide margin. Early in the season, Nelson was targeted 40% of the time, so he's actually been less featured in recent weeks. He's also had to play against two teams (Lions and Saints) who were very determined to shut him down with double coverage.

Whatever they're doing this season its working in the passing game, Aaron Rodgers moved ahead of Peyton Manning in ESPN's QBR this week, so this is not a complaint. I'm just tracking how the passing game is being used as the season goes on.

Rodgers Claims Nobody Knew Fake Spike Was Coming

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers claimed on his ESPN Milwaukee radio show today that nobody besides him knew Sunday's late fake spike was coming.

According to Rodgers, he simply yelled "clock," the team's code word for spike, before lining up and then instead throwing to Davante Adams. 

The play gained for the Packers 12 yards and brought them down to the six, where they'd score the game-winning TD seconds later.

Rodgers said that he didn't expect Adams to get as far downfield as he did, but figured the team getting two chances from the ten would be better than them getting two chances from the sixteen. 

Adams Likely Out This Week With Groin Injury

Packers Wide Receiver Jarret Boykin will likely miss this week's game against the Dolphins with a groin injury, ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky reports. 

Boykin, the team's #3, hasn't played since Week 2's contest against the Jets, being replaced by Davante Adams since then.

He hasn't practiced the last two days.

If he is out, Demovsky writes, it's possible he'll be the only one, as team Defensive End Datone Jones is currently feeling better. According to Head Coach Mike McCarthy, Jones is "in a day-to-day category" right now, a fact that can only improve the defense during these next three matchups.

Where Did All Of Aaron Rodgers's Weapons Go?

Over the past few seasons, QB Aaron Rodgers has been pretty consistent about spreading the ball around. Last season, WR Jordy Nelson led the team with 126 targets (22% of all pass attempts) with WR James Jones second at 16%. It's a little harder to rank TE and the other WR position because Randall Cobb and Jermichael Finley each missed 10 games, but WR Jarrett Boykin was targeted on 14% of pass attempts and Finley and TE Andrew Quarless combined were targeted 15%.

I'd expect the top two receivers (Nelson and Cobb) to be targeted on 20-25% of pass attempts, the number three wide receiver at 15-20%, and the number one tight end at about 15%. But that's not at all what's happened so far this season.

Coming into this season, Boykin was expected to be the number three WR and he's only been targeted three times in two games (one reception). The starting TE, Richard Rodgers, hasn't been targeted a single time. Instead, 30 of 75 pass attempts (40%) have been thrown to Nelson. That might not seem like such a bad idea, targeting their best receiver 40% of the time (Cobb's at 20%), but Aaron Rodgers's yards per game are at 242.5 in 2014 (down from 268.8 in 2013) and RB Eddie Lacy's per game yardage is half of what he had in 2013. The offense hasn't been as effective when they can only count on Nelson for yards and Cobb for touchdown receptions.

I don't know why Boykin or Richard Rodgers have been invisible in the first two games, but rookie WR Davante Adams did emerge against the Jets with 5 receptions on 7 targets. Adams played little against the Seahawks in Week 1 (no targets) but if he kept up his Week 2 usage over the course of the entire season, he would receive about 20% of all pass attempt. That's the usage I was expecting from their number three receiver. Maybe Boykin is better suited as the number four receiver and Adams will move ahead of him shortly.

Whatever happens, the Packers have to find away to get more receivers involved in the offense.

Rookie WR Davante Adams makes a splash in home opener. Read more: http://t.co/TUUUKzwqRi #NYJvsGB pic.twitter.com/y2LJbZuiL2
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 15, 2014